Mets Owner Steve Cohen To Meet With Juan Soto, Scott Boras Next Week
The Mets have been expected to line up as one of Juan Soto‘s primary suitors all winter, and after reaching out to agent Scott Boras on day one of the offseason, owner Steve Cohen is now set for an in-person visit with Soto and his agent in Southern California next week, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. Of course, the Boras Corporation also represents key free agents like Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi and Ha-Seong Kim. Whether Cohen and Boras will discuss any of those names — and whether any of those players will drop in for a sit-down with Cohen as well — remains unclear.
Little needs to be said about the potential fit for Soto in Queens. He’s among the game’s very best players and, as a free agent who’ll play next season at 26, he’s arguably the most coveted free agent since Alex Rodriguez reached the open market at the same age back in 2000. One could argue Shohei Ohtani as well, of course, but Ohtani hit the market at 29 and in the aftermath of an elbow surgery that would keep him off the mound or a full season.
The Mets, meanwhile, have one departing free agent outfielder (center fielder Harrison Bader), another who’s a free agent after next season (Starling Marte) and more than $100MM in free agent salaries coming off the books. Even with a full outfield, the Mets would likely be making a strong push for Soto. No team in MLB has a larger gap between their projected 2025 payroll and their 2024 payroll levels, nor does any team have a larger gap between their projected 2025 payroll and their all-time franchise-record payroll. Beyond that, Cohen is widely known as the wealthiest owner in the league. He’s a lifelong Mets fan who purchased the club as something of a passion project, and he immediately showed a willingness to put forth some of the largest payrolls of any team in major league history. The newly implemented fourth tier of luxury penalization is often colloquially referred to as the “Cohen tax.”
All that said, while an in-person meeting between the two parties is clearly of some significance, it’s not any indicator that there’s major traction toward a deal. Soto has heard from more than a third of the league, with even small-market clubs like the Rays reportedly doing their due diligence. It stands to reason that any club with serious interest is going to have an ownership meeting with Soto and Boras.
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner reportedly had a private meeting with Soto over the summer. The Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays Nationals and others have all been mentioned as potential landing spots. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com paints a reunion between Soto and his original organization as something of a long shot, but the Nats will presumably at least be on the periphery. Soto is such an uncommon free agent archetype that teams who’d normally never play for a free agent of this caliber could well throw their proverbial hats into the ring. A quick and decisive free agent process that’s resolved in mid-November feels quite unlikely.
For the Mets, Yankees and other serious bidders, however, getting an early feel for the market will be paramount. So much of any team’s offseason budget would be allocated to a Soto signing that his landing place — regardless of where it is — will have an immediate ripple effect on where those offseason dollars are spent. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if other owners, presidents of baseball operations, general managers, etc. traveled to meet with Soto and Boras in the next week or two, as the Boras Corporation feels out the early stages of interest and sets expectations for what most onlookers expect to be a historic contract — one that could set new standards in terms of net present value and average annual value (when factoring in for the deferrals on Ohtani’s contract).
And, as far as comparing Soto’s free agency to that of Ohtani, Boras unsurprisingly dismissed any such comparisons at this week’s GM Meetings and sought to put Soto in a tier unto himself. Via Puma, Boras had this to say about the comparison:
“I don’t think Ohtani has much to do with Juan Soto at all. It’s not something we discuss or consider. Juan Soto is in an age category that separates him from all. So comparability is not when you do these things for these young players.”
Phillies Exploring Outfield, Right-Handed Relief Markets
The Phillies head into the offseason with a star-studded roster and substantial payroll obligation, though owner John Middleton has already expressed confidence that the 2025 payroll will increase. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has at multiple points hinted at potential trades rather than free agent pursuits, speaking of a need to be “open-minded” as he looks to augment a roster that’s been a perennial playoff club but fallen shy of a World Series win (or even a World Series appearance). The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reports that the Phils have signaled a desire to add an outfielder and at least one right-handed reliever.
As laid out in our Phillies Offseason Outlook, adding in the outfield is one of the most logical pursuits for a Phillies club that has established contributors at catcher (J.T. Realmuto), first base (Bryce Harper), second base (Bryson Stott), shortstop (Trea Turner), third base (Alec Bohm), right field (Nick Castellanos) and designated hitter (Kyle Schwarber). Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas offer options in the remaining two outfield spots, but the Phils aren’t likely to simply roll the same lineup back out in 2024 after another shorter-than-hoped season. Marsh and Rojas could form a platoon, as Marsh bats left-handed to the more defensively gifted Rojas’ right-handed bat. That’d open a path for one incoming outfielder, but Dombrowski’s repeated chorus of “open-minded” approaches to reshaping his offense have prompted natural speculation about trades.
From that standpoint, it’s hard to imagine deals involving Realmuto, Harper, Turner and Schwarber. All have been viewed as core pieces in Philadelphia. The Phillies would probably love to move on from the final two years and $40MM on Castellanos’ contract, but Castellanos is a poor defender who hasn’t hit nearly as well in Philadelphia as he did in his free-agent platform season with the Reds. The Phils would need to pay down a good portion of that contract and/or include a prospect to find a taker.
Bohm, Marsh, Stott and to a lesser extent Rojas are the big league position players who could more plausibly be flipped elsewhere as the Phillies try to reshape their identity. Gelb also lists lefty starter Ranger Suarez as a possibility. Their contractual statuses are as follows:
- Suarez: Controlled through 2025 via arbitration, projected to earn $8.9MM in 2025 (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Bohm: Controlled through 2026 via arbitration, projected to earn $8.1MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
- Marsh: Controlled through 2027 via arbitration, projected to earn $3MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
- Stott: Controlled through 2027 via arbitration, projected to earn $3.5MM in 2025 (via Swartz)
- Rojas: Controlled through 2029, pre-arbitration in 2025
Obviously, the valuation on each player will vary. Suarez would be a one-year rental for a club and would require the Phils — already in need of a starter and likely hoping to dump the remaining two years and $36MM on Taijuan Walker‘s contract this offseason — to replace him. He posted a 3.46 ERA with strong strikeout (23.2%) and walk (6.5%) rates in 150 2/3 innings this season but also missed a month with a back injury and struggled from July through September. Plenty of teams would still love to plug him into their rotation.
Bohm is the most consistently productive but has the highest salary and lowest amount of club control remaining of the position players. He also cooled off considerably after a blistering start to the season. He was one of the game’s most productive hitters through early March (.360/.430/.576 in 142 plate appearances) before reverting to his usual brand of roughly average offense for the remainder of the season (.256/.302/.410 over his next 464 plate appearances). Bohm improved his glovework this year and hit righties better than usual but was still notably more productive against left-handed pitching.
Marsh can handle all three outfield spots but is best suited for left field. He’s never hit lefties well but is well above-average versus righties. He runs well and could probably pop 20 homers with a full season of at-bats, though that’d mean lesser rate stats and more plate appearances versus lefties. He’s hit 28 homers in 948 plate appearances across the past two seasons. Marsh is a useful part-time player, but his 31% strikeout rate since 2023 (and 32.8% career mark) is rather concerning, especially since he’s been platooned so often.
Stott is a plus defender and strong baserunner with 15-homer pop. He makes plenty of contact but has really only had one average season at the plate (2023), in addition to a pair of below-average campaigns during which he’s still been a solid overall contributor because of his glove and speed. If a team with budget problems and no concrete option at shortstop would view him as an outside-the-box candidate at short, his market could expand. Stott hasn’t graded as well there in 770 big league innings but has more than 2000 professional innings at short.
Rojas is an even more extreme case of the speed-and-defense skill set. He’s a plus center fielder with excellent speed but turned in just a .243/.279/.322 slash in 2024 (68 wRC+) and is a career .261/.298/.355 hitter (81 wRC+) in 527 big league plate appearances.
Dombrowski has publicly suggested that he needs to be open to trading “good players” in order to get talent in return. Speculatively speaking, Bohm feels like the most plausible fit, as he’s set to earn the most money, has the least club control remaining and plays a position (third base) where the free-agent market is quite thin this offseason. There could be paths to flipping Bohm for a bullpen arm, a back-of-the-rotation starter or an outfielder, and shedding his payroll could also free the Phillies to pursue other options at the hot corner or give them more money to address needs elsewhere on the roster.
Former Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and longtime Phils beat writers Todd Zolecki and Jim Salisbury took a deep dive into the possibilities on the latest episode of their podcast. All three acknowledged that Dombrowski’s repeated phrases this offseason have not-so-quietly signaled a trade is likely. In addition to repeating the “open-minded” line on several occasions, Dombrowski has at least twice suggested the Phillies have enough star players on the roster. At his end-of-season press conference, Dombrowski said his club has “as many star players as about anybody in baseball” before adding that sometimes “the supporting cast” is where the biggest need sits.
Gelb notes in the previously referenced piece that Dombrowski doubled down on that thinking at this week’s GM Meetings. Asked if the Phils would be “big-game hunting” this winter, the Phils’ president replied: “Our ownership allows us to do a lot of things. But sometimes that’s not what you want. We have a lot of good star players on our team. So, read that as you would.”
Jeff Hoffman Garnering Interest As Starter
Jeff Hoffman‘s breakout as an elite reliever in the Phillies’ bullpen over the past two seasons played a huge role in the team’s success, but now that he’s a free agent it’s possible he’ll sign in a completely different role. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported within his ranking of the offseason’s top free agents that some clubs have considered pursuing Hoffman as a starting pitcher. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb backs that up in his own report, further pointing out that Hoffman is represented the same agency (CAA) that represented Reynaldo Lopez during his own switch from the bullpen to the rotation last winter.
Hoffman, 32 in January, has quietly been a dominant force in the Philadelphia bullpen since signing a minor league deal early in the 2023 season. Recency bias might conjure up the unflattering memory of the right-hander’s NLDS meltdown against the Mets, but from 2023-24, Hoffman compiled 118 2/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball while punching out a gaudy 33.4% of his opponents against a 7.4% walk rate. This postseason’s pair of regrettable outings against the Mets isn’t an ideal final memory, but Hoffman also snapped off six shutout innings of relief with eight strikeouts and no walks during the 2023 NLCS.
Excellent as Hoffman has been in relief, there’s reason to believe he could succeed in a lengthier role. First and foremost, the former No. 8 overall draft pick was a starter in his college days at East Carolina University and began his pro career in a rotation role. He started 11 big league games as recently as 2021 with Cincinnati and didn’t move to a full-time relief role until his 2022 season with the Reds. Hoffman has appeared in 361 professional games (majors and minors combined); 145 of them (40%) have been starts.
Beyond his familiarity with the role, Hoffman still uses a four-pitch repertoire even when working out of the bullpen. Many relievers who were once starters narrow their arsenal down to two pitches when they move to a short relief role. Hoffman still threw four pitches at least 8% of the time in 2024: a four-seamer (39%), slider (40.8%), splitter (12%) and sinker (8.2%). He averaged a fiery 96.6 mph on that four-seamer and 96.7 mph on his sinker. Those numbers would surely go down were Hoffman to begin working five, six and seven innings at a time, but even with reduced life on his fastballs he could still have average or better velocity. The league-average starting pitcher in 2024 sat 94.2 mph with his four-seamer, per Statcast.
Among those four pitches, Statcast has ranked them all as plus offerings over the past two seasons. Hoffman’s slider has easily been the best of the bunch, producing a huge 20.6% swinging-strike rate and limiting opponents to a .160/.201/.215 batting line when finishing off a plate appearance with that offering (dating back to Opening Day 2023). Again, whether he could sustain that level of dominance when facing opponents a second and third time through the order isn’t certain, but Hoffman’s wipeout slider has played an enormous role in his breakout since signing with the Phillies.
There are health and performance risks when taking a reliever and stretching him out. Hoffman hasn’t reached even 100 innings (majors and minors combined) in a season since 2019. Even among the reliever-to-starter experiments that panned out nicely in 2024, no one from the bunch worked what could be considered a full workload.
Garrett Crochet came the closest, compiling 146 innings across 32 starts, but the White Sox didn’t allow him to pitch more than four innings in a start after the calendar flipped to July. The aforementioned Lopez reached 135 2/3 innings but had a pair of IL stints owing to forearm and shoulder inflammation. Angels righty Jose Soriano went from 65 1/3 innings in 2023 to 113 in 2024 but was shut down for the season on Aug. 17 due to arm fatigue. Giants righty Jordan Hicks thrived in the rotation through late May before stumbling to an ERA over 6.00 in the early summer and being dropped back to the ‘pen in mid-July. He finished at 109 2/3 innings with a 4.10 ERA. Seth Lugo is perhaps the best recent example of success in this transition. He jumped from 65 innings with the 2022 Mets to 146 innings with the 2023 Padres and 206 innings with this past season’s Royals.
Notably, McDaniel opines that Hoffman is still likelier to sign as a reliever. It’s the role in which he’s dominated over the past two seasons, and while he’s not the No. 1 reliever in this offseason’s free agent class — most publications, including MLBTR, assigned that honor to lefty Tanner Scott — Hoffman has a case to be considered the No. 2 or No. 3 bullpen arm on the open market this winter.
Gelb suggests Hoffman may prefer the relief role, though logically speaking, one would imagine he’d simply take the best offer possible. This is Hoffman’s first real crack at a notable MLB contract. He took home a signing bonus of just over $3MM in the draft but was non-tendered throughout his arbitration years and earned a relatively modest $2.2MM this past season in his final arb season. Even with that draft bonus, Hoffman’s career earnings fall shy of $8MM. He’ll presumably prioritize top dollar, regardless of location or role.
Top 50 Free Agent Chat Transcript
You’ve had a few days to digest our entire 2024-25 Top 50 MLB Free Agent rankings, all 20,000 words of it. Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco, Darragh McDonald and I put more than a month into deliberating our contract predictions. If you want to ask us more about our process, a particular prediction, tell us someone we overlooked/underestimated/overrated or give any other thoughts, you can click here to read a transcript of the chat with Tim, Darragh and me about the list!
Cards Moving Willson Contreras To First Base; Contreras Unlikely To Waive No-Trade Clause
As he heads into the third season of his five-year, $87.5MM contract, Willson Contreras is headed for a position change. The Cardinals plan to move Contreras from catcher to first base next season, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters at the GM Meetings today that the move to a first base/designated hitter role was made with Contreras’ long-term health and longevity in mind, adding that he’s “unlikely” to catch much at all in 2025 (X link via Katie Woo of The Athletic).
Mozeliak added that Contreras was quite clear about his desire to remain in St. Louis even as the team embarks on something of a reset (via Woo). That makes it unlikely he’d be willing to waive his full no-trade clause this offseason. It’s a similar story with right-hander Sonny Gray, it seems. Mozeliak didn’t directly state as much, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Gray has also expressed a preference to remain with the Cardinals. Like Contreras, Gray has full no-trade protection.
The move to first base for Contreras opens the path for Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages to split time behind the plate. It’s perhaps possible that an injury to one or both players could result in Contreras suiting up and crouching behind home plate once again, but it seems the organization’s preference is a shift away from that role. It’s the latest in a winding saga with the Cardinals’ seeming distaste for Contreras’ defense — one that began just weeks into his first season with the club.
The Cardinals announced early in the 2023 season that Contreras would be moving off catcher for at least a few weeks. At the time, Mozeliak stressed that Contreras hadn’t caught his last game for the club but added that the team had grown accustomed to Yadier Molina‘s glovework behind the dish, adding that “this is going to take a little time to get him to where we feel he understands the expectations of what this role is for us.” It was a stunning announcement less than two months into a five-year contract, and one that generated even more confusion when Contreras returned to catching just one week later.
With the contract now 40% complete, Contreras appears ticketed for a more permanent move off the position. The 32-year-old has long been regarded as a bat-first catcher, but the ongoing questions about the Cardinals’ satisfaction with his defense (or lack thereof) has at multiple points prompted questions about why the team signed him to a five-year deal in the first place. Those questions will only grow louder now. Statcast has generally given Contreras plus grades for his throwing and rated him as a solid blocker, though his framing skills have been panned. He’s lived up to his end of the deal at the plate, however, hitting a combined .263/.367/.468 in 853 plate appearances. A broken forearm and finger, among other smaller injuries, have limited his time on the field, but Contreras has generally been one of the Cardinals’ best hitters when healthy.
That’ll presumably continue as he moves into a new role on the field. Contreras’ position shift seems likely to close the door on a potential reunion with free agent Paul Goldschmidt, who’ll now look to rebound elsewhere after a disappointing finish to his St. Louis tenure. It’ll also finally give the 24-year-old Herrera a crack at the starting catcher role for which he’s appeared ready for several years.
Herrera was thought to be a potential heir to Molina behind the plate, but any such hopes were dashed when the Cards originally signed Contreras. He’s a .289/.365/.398 hitter in 325 major league plate appearances (117 wRC+) and carries a stout .281/.414/.453 slash in 176 Triple-A contests. Pages, 26, hit .238/.281/.376 in 218 big league plate appearances in 2024. The righty hitter did post solid offensive numbers as a 24-year-old in Double-A in 2023, but scouting reports on him have questioned his hit tool while characterizing him as a likelier platoon option or backup.
Turning to Gray, his apparent desire to remain in St. Louis makes him a less obvious trade candidate than he was entering the winter. The Cards were reported to be open to offers on Gray even before they publicly revealed their plan for a step-back to focus on player development. Gray’s no-trade clause and heavily backloaded contract were always significant roadblocks in a potential trade, but ones that potentially seemed surmountable. He was quite selective about his destination in free agency, preferring to be relatively close to his Nashville home. Still, there was some thought that a trade to a geographically close club might hold appeal.
Working out such a swap would’ve been complicated. Gray’s three-year, $75MM contract paid him just $10MM in year one. He’s owed $65MM over the course of the next two seasons. That’s a huge number for an acquiring club to take on, particularly if said club has luxury-tax concerns (e.g. the Braves). A team acquiring a contract is taxed on the remainder of the deal rather than the original AAV, meaning a new club would be on the hook for a $32.5MM luxury hit in acquiring Gray. Those hurdles are all rendered moot, however, if Gray prefers to remain in St. Louis and see how things play out in the short-term.
Mozeliak told reporters today that he spoke to all of his players with no-trade clauses. That means he’s at least broached the possibility with third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’s not yet clear, however, whether Arenado is as convicted in his desire to remain on board through the team’s reset. Certainly, the lack of comments or concrete reporting on the matter doesn’t mean Arenado is requesting or even open to a trade, but the lack of information on him will fuel natural speculation. Arenado’s trade from Colorado to St. Louis, after all, was prompted by his frustration over the Rockies’ inability to field a competitive roster. Playing for a contending club was a priority for him — so much so that he passed on an opt-out opportunity in his contract to remain in St. Louis due in large part to their status as perennial contenders.
Arenado now has three years and $74MM remaining on his contract. The Rockies are on the hook for $5MM of that sum. He’s had two straight pedestrian seasons at the plate, batting .269/.320/.426 since 2023. That’s still slightly better than league-average production by measure of wRC+ but is a far cry from his MVP-caliber 2022 showing when he hit .293/.358/.553. Whether he can bounce back as he heads into his age-34 campaign is an open question, but Arenado remains an elite defender with rare durability. He’s missed 28 games over the past two seasons but has played in 94.6% of his teams’ games dating back to the 2015 season.
Mariners Prioritizing Infield Bats
The Mariners are once again looking to upgrade their offense this winter after 2024’s underwhelming results at the plate squandered a terrific season from their pitching staff. Unsurprisingly, general manager Justin Hollander tells Jon Morosi of MLB.com that the M’s view second base as a priority this offseason. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that the M’s would also like to add at first base. Ideally, Seattle would add one bat to help out at second or third base — with Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore a potential platoon at the other spot — and another at first base. Hollander downplayed the idea of adding to the outfield, telling FanSided’s Robert Murray that between Randy Arozarena in left, Julio Rodriguez in center, Victor Robles in right and Luke Raley as a corner outfield/first base/DH option, the Mariners feel they have potential for a “pretty high-end outfield.”
With the offseason just days old, there are of course virtually limitless options to explore via free agency and trade. Morosi reports that Seattle is among the teams to have evaluated Hyeseong Kim, the star second baseman of the Korea Baseball Organization’s Kiwoom Heroes. Kim, 25, is scheduled to be posted for MLB clubs to bid on this winter. Rosenthal lists a reunion with Justin Turner as something Seattle could pursue. He cautions against the likelihood of the Mariners spending to the levels necessary to add longtime division rival Alex Bregman or (to a lesser extent) first baseman Christian Walker.
Kim, 26 in January, hit .326/.383/.458 with 11 home runs, 30 steals, an 8.3% walk rate and just a 10.9% strikeout rate for the Heroes this past season. He’s been a plus hitter three straight seasons in the KBO but is more of a contact-, speed- and defense-oriented player, as he’s not considered to have much home run pop. This past season’s 11 round-trippers were a career-high. Turner, of course, finished out the 2024 season in Seattle after coming over from the Blue Jays in a trade. He batted .264/.363/.403 in 190 plate appearances as a Mariner. His overall .259/.354/.383 slash is a ways from peak levels, and Turner will turn 40 later this month. That said, he was still a productive big league hitter this past season.
The Mariners’ expected focus on infield bats — and their flexibility to look at multiple positions — was laid out in our Mariners Offseason Outlook. As noted in that piece a few weeks back, Kim and Gleyber Torres are two particularly interesting options at second base, and both are likely to be relatively affordable. Former Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim could technically be a fit at second or third base, but he’s likely to miss the beginning of the season following his recent shoulder surgery and derives a good bit of his value from his plus glovework. He’d be a less-than-ideal fit if the goal is to bolster the offense from day one.
Meanwhile, signing Bregman or Willy Adames (perhaps with eye toward moving him to third base) would represent a major philosophical departure from the Mariners’ past mode of operation. The M’s have only given out one multi-year deal to a free agent position player under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto — that being last winter’s two-year, $24MM pact to Mitch Garver. Rosenthal suggests that signing a $100MM+ deal could be outside the team’s budget, but even beyond that, it’s simply not how Dipoto has historically operated.
The trade market could present various alternatives. The Rays will likely listen to offers on Yandy Diaz, making him one speculative fit at first base. He’d align well with Seattle’s desire to reduce their MLB-worst strikeout rate and is slated to earn $10MM next year with a $12MM club option for 2026. Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe, owed $10.5MM with an $11.5MM club option for 2026, is another on-paper fit. He wouldn’t reduce the team’s strikeout rate, but he’s a potential impact bat with multiple years of club control. Cleveland could listen to offers on slugging first baseman Josh Naylor.
However things play out, the M’s will be looking to once again redraw an offense that has struggled to make contact at one of the most glaring rates in the league. In addition to tying the Rockies with an MLB-high 26.8% strikeout rate, Mariners hitters had the league’s third-lowest overall contact rate (74%) and were tied for MLB’s second-worst contact rate on swings at pitches within the strike zone (82.9%). The Seattle lineup actually chased pitches off the plate at the fourth-lowest rate in MLB … but their contact rate on those swings was still the third-worst.
Cubs Expected To Pursue Help Near Top Of Rotation, Back Of Bullpen
The Cubs are expected to be aggressive in their search for upgrades near the top of the rotation and in their late-inning relief corps, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Chicago was already expected to be in the market for catching upgrades this winter.
Improvements on the pitching staff have long stood as a fairly logical pursuit for the Chicago front office. The lineup was largely set even before Cody Bellinger passed on his opt-out opportunity. The Cubs have Michael Busch at first base, Nico Hoerner at second, Dansby Swanson at short and Isaac Paredes at the hot corner. The outfield/DH mix contains Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and now Bellinger. Each of Happ, Suzuki and Swanson have no-trade provisions.
Hoerner was speculated by many — MLBTR included — to be a possible trade candidate as a result of this inflexibility on the trade front, but his recent forearm surgery makes a deal quite unlikely. The Cubs aren’t likely to add a long-term replacement. Mooney suggests that top prospect Matt Shaw or an in-house alternative like James Triantos could bridge that gap. Hoyer told Mooney and others at the ongoing GM Meetings that there’s no timeline for Hoerner’s return just yet, but the team expects a “full recovery.” On paper, there’s a path to moving Bellinger and the remaining two years on his contract, but to this point there’s been no indication the Cubs will consider that this winter.
As such, an upgrade behind the plate seems like the clearest path to bolstering the lineup, while an upgrade on the pitching side of things is the most obvious path to improving the club overall. As it stands, the Cubs could be as much as $50MM shy of their 2024 payroll levels — a number that could push closer to $60MM if they opt to further subtract some arbitration-eligible players via non-tender or trade. Trey Wingenter, Julian Merryweather, Adbert Alzolay, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal are among the options who fit that billing after several arb-eligible Cubs were already cut loose yesterday.
That leaves the Cubs with significant financial firepower at their disposal, assuming ownership authorizes a payroll at least in line with last year’s rough $235MM mark (per RosterResource). President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer (or perhaps owner Tom Ricketts) has typically preferred not to invest money in lengthy deals for relievers. The last multi-year deal for any reliever from the Cubs was in 2019 when they signed Craig Kimbrel to a three-year, $43MM pact. If that trend holds up, it’ll only point all the more significantly toward a potential splash in the deep end of the free agent pool for starting pitchers.
As it stands, the Cubs have Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and likely Javier Assad locked into starting spots. Candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian and top prospect Cade Horton. All have minor league options remaining, and any of the bunch could end up a bullpen option. Brown and particularly Wesneski both got looks in relief last year. Assad has had success as a reliever in 2023.
The top end of the free-agent pool includes Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty. All four were predicted for nine-figure guarantees on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent rankings. Of the four, both Burnes and Fried received and will reject a qualifying offer. Ricketts confirmed in October that the Cubs narrowly crossed the luxury tax threshold in 2024, meaning they’d need to surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft as well as $1MM of space from their 2025 international bonus pool in order to sign Burnes, Fried, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino or any of the free agents who received a qualifying offer. (It’d have been “only” their second-highest pick and $500K of pool space had they successfully dipped under the line.) The qualifying offer historically hasn’t been a dealbreaker for the Hoyer-led Cubs. They signed Swanson after he rejected the Braves’ QO in the 2022-23 offseason.
And, to be clear, the mere fact that the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever under Hoyer doesn’t mean that they won’t consider doing so this winter. Prior to last offseason, the Cubs had typically spent $5MM or less on free-agent relief pitchers. They nearly doubled that sum when signing Hector Neris. The deal didn’t work out, of course, but Hoyer has already begun to deviate a bit from the bargain-bin approach to building out a bullpen. That’s a far cry from declaring they’re in in top relievers like Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estevez and others, but a step up in their aggression toward pursuing relief help shouldn’t be ruled out.
If the Cubs are indeed intent on sticking to the one-year bucket in free agency, there’s no shortage of older but still high-quality leverage options from which to choose. Each of Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen and old friend David Robertson is a free agent this winter. They’ll all pitch next year at 37 or older, making them likely one-year deal candidates. Any of the bunch could (and likely will) command an eight-figure salary, but the Cubs already came close to that level in signing Neris and could be further emboldened to pursue a solidified ninth-inning option after last year’s bullpen again proved shaky, tying for eighth in the majors with 26 blown saves.
A’s GM: “We’re Going To Keep [Brent Rooker]”
Athletics slugger Brent Rooker was one of the most sought-after candidates on the summer trade market, but the A’s were reluctant to move him then and are similarly unwilling to move him now. General manager David Forst candidly told Jon Heyman of the New York Post at today’s GM Meetings (X link): “We’re going to keep [Rooker].”
Skeptics will crack wise that this only means Rooker is even likelier to be traded, but that’s quite likely not the case. Baseball executives rarely make such definitive declarations about a player’s trade candidacy (or lack thereof) on the record. The overwhelming majority of the time they do so, the player indeed stays put. The most famous recent exception is back in 2022, when Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said in June that he would not trade Juan Soto but then did so the following month; however, even then, Rizzo only did so after Soto rejected a reported 15-year extension offer worth more than $400MM guaranteed.
Teams could still try to pry Rooker away from the A’s, but today’s frank comments from Forst all but rule out the possibility this winter. Perhaps next July or next offseason the club will reconsider, but the A’s control Rooker for an additional three seasons. They’re likely headed to West Sacramento to kick off a new era for A’s baseball, ahead of their planned move to Las Vegas in 2028. It stands to reason that the A’s will want some recognizable talent on the roster as they aim to appeal to fans in their temporary home market, sell merchandise, etc.
Rooker, who turned 30 last week, has gone from waiver fodder to one of the sport’s premier sluggers since landing with the Athletics. The Twins selected him with the 35th overall pick in 2017, gave him his MLB debut in 2020, and ultimately traded him to the Padres alongside Taylor Rogers in the deal that brought Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan and prospect Brayan Medina back to Minnesota. San Diego only held Rooker for a bit more than three months, giving him just seven big league plate appearances before trading him to the Royals in exchange for backup catcher Cam Gallagher. Kansas City waived him less than three months later.
The A’s placed a claim, and it proved to be perhaps the best waiver claim in recent memory. Rooker, always touted for his plus power but panned for strikeouts and defensive limitations, broke out with a .246/.329/.488 slash and 30 homers in an uneven 2023 campaign. He was brilliant in April, July and September but struggled in the interim months that season.
Rooker’s 2024 campaign, however, left little doubt about the sustainability of his breakout. He was a plus hitter in every month of the season and finished out the year with a superlative .293/.365/.562 batting line and 39 home runs. Only four players — Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Santander and Juan Soto — hit more home runs than Rooker this past season. By measure of wRC+, he was the seventh-best qualified hitter in MLB, trailing only Judge, Ohtani, Soto, Bobby Witt Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Yordan Alvarez.
Rooker is hitting arbitration for the first time in his career. Because of his limited track record prior to landing with the A’s, he’s projected for a reasonable $5.1MM salary by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. With another season like the one he just enjoyed, that sum could more than double in the 2025-26 offseason. If he can sustain this for two more years, Rooker could well be sporting a salary in the $15-20MM range during his final year of arbitration. Suffice it to say, that opens the door for potential trade scenarios down the road, but it seems that Rooker will stay put for the time being.
The A’s don’t have a single dollar committed to the 2025 payroll. Rooker is one of four arbitration-eligible players, and the others — Seth Brown, Miguel Andujar and Dany Jimenez — are all potential non-tender/trade candidates. Rooker, along with outfielders JJ Bleday and Lawrence Butler, slugging catcher Shea Langeliers and rebound candidate Zack Gelof, comprises a potential lineup core for the A’s next season. With nothing guaranteed on next year’s books, the A’s are likely to add some money via free agency and/or trade in the next few months, as they’ll need to invest in the roster to an extent in order to retain their status as a revenue sharing recipient. It’s a low bar to clear, but the A’s did finish the ’24 season with an approximately $63MM payroll, per RosterResource, so they’ll need to make some additions alongside Rooker, given the dearth of any other meaningful financial commitments on the roster.
Jorge Polanco On Track For January Return To Baseball Activity
Free agent second baseman Jorge Polanco underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee after the season, clouding his market on the heels of a down year with the Mariners. Agent Ulises Cabrera of Octagon tells MLB.com’s Jon Morosi that his client is currently expected to be cleared for full baseball activity in January. Seattle declined a $12MM club option on Polanco in favor of a $750K buyout last week.
Polanco, 31, stumbled through the worst season of his career in 2024, hitting just .213/.298/.355 as the primary second baseman for the Mariners. It was Polanco’s first season with an organization other than the Twins. Minnesota, deep in infield talent and facing payroll uncertainty amid the Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports bankruptcy proceedings, traded Polanco to Seattle last offseason in exchange for reliever Justin Topa, rotation reclamation bid Anthony DeSclafani, and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Neither club benefited from the deal in 2024. Polanco had a career-worst showing. Topa missed nearly the entire season after sustaining a knee injury in spring training. DeSclafani didn’t pitch at all after undergoing flexor surgery in spring training.
At the time he was acquired, Polanco looked like the steadying presence the Mariners had coveted at second base after several years of a revolving door at the position. The switch-hitter was a fixture in Minnesota’s infield from 2018-23, hitting a combined .270/.338/.455 along the way. Polanco had dealt with some knee troubles in recent seasons but finished the ’23 season both healthy and productive. In 216 plate appearances after being reinstated from the injured list in July 2023, he slashed .258/.361/.456.
The knee injury likely explains some of Polanco’s struggles in 2024, but that won’t do his free agent market any big favors. Major League Baseball’s free agent market generally doesn’t treat second basemen well in the first place, and Polanco will be entering the 2025 campaign as a notable health risk and rebound candidate. He’s likely to be capped at a one-year deal with some incentives based on plate appearances and/or games played. Clubs looking for some affordable help at second base could look to Polanco, a 2019 All-Star who belted 33 home runs as recently as 2021, as a reasonably priced option. However, it’s possible they’ll want to wait until he resumes baseball activity before determining the size of the commitment they’re comfortable making.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.