Marlins Acquire Jonathan Villar
The Marlins have acquired infielder Jonathan Villar from the Orioles, as Craig Mish of MLB Network first reported (via Twitter). Lefty Easton Lucas is going back in return.
The Marlins have designated JT Riddle and Tayron Guerrero to create roster space. Previously dropped from the Baltimore 40-man, Villar was projected by MLBTR to earn $10.4MM in arbitration.
Villar enters his final season of arbitration control, so he’s not necessarily a long-term asset for the rebuilding Marlins. That said, it’s not hard to understand the thought process here. Villar has been a productive player the past few seasons, especially in 2019. Last year, he slashed .273/.339/.453 (107 wRC+) while playing in all 162 games for Baltimore. He started 158 of them somewhere on the middle infield. Between that durability, defensive profile and offense (bolstered by elite baserunning), Villar was worth exactly 4 wins above replacement, per Fangraphs. Finding that level of player for around $10MM isn’t easy.
Miami has Miguel Rojas and prospect Isan Díaz ticketed for much of the club’s middle infield work, so it’ll be interesting to see how manager Don Mattingly deploys Villar. Rojas, while a gifted defender, has never hit much, so it’s possible he’ll take on more of a utility role with Villar in the fold. It’d be a bit more surprising to see Villar cut into Díaz’s playing time. Speculatively, though, Díaz has faced some questions about his ability to stick at second base coming up through the minors. Perhaps Miami could look to expose him to other positions as they identify who shapes up as a long-term piece.
Riddle and Guerrero, meanwhile, will head out to make way for Villar and Jesus Aguilar, who was acquired from Tampa Bay on waivers. Riddle, a 28-year-old infielder, has never hit in parts of three seasons in Miami, combining for a .229/.269/.368 slash over 718 plate appearances. Guerrero, also 28, flashed power stuff out of the bullpen but never got quite as many swings and misses as one might expect. With an untenable 13.6% career walk rate, he ran out of leash in Miami.
It’s possible Villar and Aguilar could themselves wind up as trade candidates next season. If they produce, Miami could be motivated to flip them off to a team more positioned to contend in the short-term. Given the low acquisition costs of today’s moves, it’s hard to question the logic.
In Lucas, Baltimore brings aboard a recent 14th round pick out of Pepperdine. GM Mike Elias voiced an expectation that Lucas could someday mature into a back-end starter (via Roch Kubatko of MASN), but he was not rated among the Marlins’ top prospects. Instead, the decision to waive, and eventually trade, Villar seems motivated almost entirely by a desire to clear his projected salary off the books.
Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline
With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.
We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…
- The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
- Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
- Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.
Earlier Moves
- The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
- Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
- Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
- The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
- The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
- Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
- Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.
Quick Hits: Rangers, Andujar, Nishikawa, Giants, Bleier
We’ll check out a few notes as we wrap up a quiet weekend around baseball.
- The Rangers are “definitely intrigued” by the idea of acquiring Miguel Andújar from the Yankees to fill their third base vacancy, hears T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. The Yankees have gotten numerous hits on Andújar this offseason, with interested teams perhaps looking to buy low after a labrum tear ended the 24-year-old’s season in April. With Gio Urshela having supplanted Andújar at the hot corner in the Bronx, the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up now looks like an interesting trade candidate. Free agency remains an option for Texas, too; Sullivan hears the Rangers are still interested in Josh Donaldson, whom the MLBTR staff guessed would end up in Arlington on a three year, $75MM deal.
- Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters outfielder Haruki Nishikawa hopes the team will make him available to MLB clubs via the posting system next offseason, reports Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times. Nishikawa, whom Coskrey describes as a “speedy, left-handed hitter,” has a cumulative .284/.376/.393 line in parts of eight NPB seasons. 2019 marked a bit of a step back from the past few years for the 27-year-old, as he slashed .288/.393/.385 with 19 stolen bases. Every year between 2016-18, though, Nishikawa stole at least 39 bags with an OPS north of .790. Nishikawa’s entering his final year under contract with the Fighters, but he won’t qualify for international free agency. Thus, he will need the Fighters, whom Coskrey notes has historically been the most amenable NPB team to posting its top players, including Shohei Ohtani, to agree to post him if he’s to gauge MLB interest in 2020.
- The Giants are negotiating a deal with Indians‘ infield coach/defensive coordinator Kai Correa, reports Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (via Twitter). San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler is a “huge fan” of Correa’s, Baggarly adds. Correa has spent the past two years working with infielders in the Cleveland organization. He’d previously spent seven seasons coaching at the college level, including four at the University of Northern Colorado.
- The Orioles are nearing a deal with reliever Richard Bleier to avoid arbitration, reports Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter). Bleier is projected for a modest $1.1MM award in his first foray through the process. The left-handed sinkerballer has consistently posted an elite ground ball rate and been particularly stingy with walks, helping to overcome one of the game’s worst strikeout rates. Unfortunately, Bleier’s 5.37 ERA last season was over three runs per nine higher than the 1.97 career mark he carried entering the year.
Trey Mancini, Orioles Have Not Yet Discussed Extension
Orioles’ first baseman/corner outfielder Trey Mancini addressed his future with reporters this afternoon. While Mancini reiterated his desire to remain in Baltimore, the organization has not yet approached him about an extension, he said (via Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball). Nevertheless, Mancini added that he’s “pretty confident” he won’t be traded this offseason, although he acknowledged that’s hardly within his control (via Joe Trezza of MLB.com).
There are myriad options for GM Mike Elias and the rest of the front office to take with Mancini. There are plausible cases for the organization to lock him up long-term or to move him this offseason. Alternatively, there needn’t be a mandate on the organization’s part to commit to anything just yet. Mancini, 28 in March, is entering his first year of arbitration and won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2022. Projected for a reasonable $5.7MM salary, the Orioles could simply elect to tender Mancini a contract and plug him back into the middle of the lineup next season.
There are reasons why it makes some sense to be decisive now, though. Last year, Mancini slashed .291/.364/.535 with 35 home runs. He was easily the Orioles’ best hitter, and he finished tied for 30th among qualifiers with a 132 wRC+. That outpaced the fine but unexciting work Mancini did at the plate over his first two-plus MLB seasons. He entered 2019 with a career .268/.319/.458 slash, hardly remarkable for a bat-first player.
If the Orioles’ front office expects Mancini to regress towards his career norms, the time could be right to move him. The free agent market for first basemen isn’t particularly robust, and it stands to reason Mancini will never have more trade value than he does right now. Even if he continues to hit well next season, he’ll inch closer to free agency. His high home run and RBI totals figure to run up a pricey arbitration tag in the coming years, too. With the Orioles almost sure to be noncompetitive again in 2020, perhaps Mancini’s peak years ought be spent outside of Baltimore.
On the other hand, there’s value to having quality players around, even at the lowest depths of a rebuild. Mancini’s a likable and productive player. Moving him would certainly be a tough pill for some fans to swallow. (Of course, that didn’t stop the Orioles from waiving Jonathan Villar, Mancini’s only competition for Baltimore’s best player, earlier this week in a cost-cutting move). Mancini is also young enough to potentially be a part of Baltimore’s next competitive club, especially if he continues to be willing to work out a long-term arrangement. Bat-first players haven’t generated particularly exciting returns in trade the past few seasons. It’s certainly possible that Baltimore could have trouble finding an offer sufficient to part with their most recognizable player. If that indeed proves to be the case, there could be value to engaging with him on an extension.
A new contract would at the very least give both player and organization some cost certainty moving forward. As noted, Mancini’s skillset tends to be more highly-regarded by arbitrators than by current MLB front offices. The Orioles might prefer to lock in Mancini’s salary for the next few years rather than risk exorbitant arbitration awards, particularly if the player is willing to forfeit a would-be free agent year or two. Today’s news that the organization has yet to approach Mancini hardly precludes them from doing so at a later date this offseason.
AL East Notes: Avisail, Pedroia, Johnson, Orioles
Avisail Garcia has been a popular figure in the first weeks of free agency, and his list of suitors includes Garcia’s most recent organization. “There is interest, and engagement” from the Rays in a reunion with Garcia, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, updating his own report from late October that originally detailed the potential for another contract between the two sides. Garcia was a nice low-cost buy for Tampa last offseason, as the outfielder inked a one-year, $3.5MM deal with the Rays and hit .282/.332/.464 with 20 homers (good for a 111 OPS+ and 112 wRC+) while posting slightly above-average hard-hit ball numbers and defensive metrics in right field.
This solid but unspectacular season might keep Garcia within Tampa Bay’s rather limited price range, as MLBTR predicted only a two-year, $12MM deal for Garcia this winter. A bigger question could be where Garcia fits into a Rays outfield that already has Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows, though the right-handed hitting Garcia is a nice complement amidst lefty swingers like Meadows and first base/DH options like Ji-Man Choi and Nate Lowe.
Here’s more from around the AL East…
- While Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia intends to resume his career in 2020 after multiple knee surgeries, “the most optimistic projection for Pedroia would be playing for the Sox in late May or June,” Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe hears from multiple sources. Pedroia has appeared in only nine games over the last two seasons, and with so much uncertainty around his availability, second base is a clear area of need for the team this winter.
- Both Abraham and WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford were surprised by Boston’s decision to waive left-hander Brian Johnson earlier this week, though Johnson remained with the Red Sox (and outrighted off the 40-man roster) after going unclaimed. Johnson is also out of minor league options, which dimmed his value to other teams, Abraham hears from an evaluator. The timing of the move may have been tactical on the club’s part, Bradford notes, as Johnson was waived not long after other teams had set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and thus didn’t have the space to spare on a southpaw who pitched well in 2017-18 before struggling last year. The transaction caught Johnson himself by surprise, as he told Bradford, though “in the grand scheme of things I’m just not on the 40-man. My goals don’t change. I have the same goal going into spring training, fighting for a job either in the bullpen or starting.”
- Some of the offseason’s early moves have seemingly removed two potential Orioles trade partners for Trey Mancini or Mychal Givens, the Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli writes. Mancini could have been a possible long-term piece for a White Sox team that appears ready to start competing, but Chicago’s extension with Jose Abreu and signing of Yasmani Grandal (as a part-time first baseman and DH, to go with his catching duties) would seem to limit Mancini to the outfield for the Sox, a less-than-ideal defensive fit. As for Givens, the Braves had interest in the right-hander at the trade deadline but have now addressed their bullpen needs by signing Will Smith and re-signing Chris Martin and Darren O’Day.
Orioles Reportedly Place Jonathan Villar On Waivers
The Orioles have placed infielder Jonathan Villar on outright waivers after being unable to find a trade partner for the fleet-footed switch-hitter, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (via Twitter). Villar’s projected $10.4MM arbitration salary apparently served as too substantial a roadblock to overcome when marketing him to other teams.
It’s an extreme cost-cutting measure for the tanking Orioles — one that frankly looks unnecessary. Even with Villar in the fold, the Orioles’ Opening Day payroll projects to come in south of $80MM, so it’s not as if there is (or should be) any real pressure to shed salary.
Beyond that is the simple fact that Villar has been a fine player in Baltimore — arguably the organization’s best in 2019. The 28-year-old batted .274/.339/.453 with 24 home runs, 33 doubles, five triples and a whopping 40 stolen bases (in 49 attempts) this past season. Defensive metrics soured on his work at second base but gave him passable marks at shortstop — and Villar does have a track record as a useful glove at second prior to the 2019 season.
Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com valued Villar at four wins above replacement this past season. Clearly the Orioles aren’t the only team in the league that doesn’t value Villar at his current price point — hence the lack of trade interest — but there’s virtually no way off spinning this as a move that makes Baltimore a better team in 2020.
Even if the Orioles reinvest that roughly $10MM sum, there’s little reason that with their current level of financial commitment they couldn’t simply have kept Villar and spent an additional $10MM anyhow. And it’s unlikely that Villar’s eventual replacement will give them superior on-field results. It looks to be a move designed to lose more games next season, and it’s surely a tough blow for a fanbase that has had few quality performances to cheer over the past couple of seasons.
Villar will be available for any club to claim at this point, though the new team would be on the hook for the same projected salary in arbitration. If he goes unclaimed, he’ll surely opt for free agency, at which point he’ll be able to sign with any team for any amount. Given the lack of trade interest in Villar, it’s certainly possible that he will indeed pass through waivers, but he should draw plenty of interest on Major League deals — perhaps even a two-year pact at a lower annual rate. For the Orioles, meanwhile, the optics of letting him go for no return aren’t great, and the move will be tough to sell to the fans.
Orioles Reportedly Working To Trade Dylan Bundy
The Orioles are trying to hammer out a deal involving right-hander Dylan Bundy, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Whether or not talks are focused with a single team isn’t evident.
It’s a bit difficult to assess just how likely a swap truly is. Feinsand offers the obscure observation that “no deal is imminent, but one appears to be getting close.” It seems at minimum that the O’s are working hard to move the former top draft pick.
Bundy projects to earn $5.7MM in arbitration with one more season of control still to go. That could be a bargain if he can clean some things up. But there’s obviously work to do if Bundy is to reach his ceiling.
On the positive side, Bundy has shown an ability to generate ~12% swinging strikes and about a strikeout per inning. He has averaged about thirty starts per season for three years running. And he’s still just 27 years of age.
The results, though, haven’t been there. Bundy posted a 5.45 ERA in 2018 and a 4.79 mark in the just-completed campaign. He has allowed gobs of long balls and doesn’t carry near the velocity that was once expected — a product, perhaps, of the run of arm troubles that marred his early career.
It’s possible to imagine any number of teams having some level of interest in Bundy. Contenders willing to take a bit of a risk on one rotation spot could have interest, as might rebuilding organizations seeking a combination of reliable innings and upside.
Orioles Announce Multiple Minor-League Signings
The Orioles have announced a variety of minor-league signings. Among the notable players is outfielder Mason Williams, who received a brief look in the majors last September after a strong Triple-A season.
A few other players with MLB experience are heading to the Baltimore organization in hopes of earning a new shot at the majors. Southpaws Hunter Cervenka and Rob Zastryzny have appeared in multiple big-league campaigns. Likewise, infielders Jose Rondon and Jesmuel Valentin have seen the Show.
It’s possible to imagine a path back for each of those players. Williams will face stiff competition but obviously has impressed the club to an extent. The O’s clearly like the idea of creating some competition in camp for the left-handed side of their bullpen. Present top options include Richard Bleier, Paul Fry, and Tanner Scott. And the middle infield corps could be an area of change depending upon what the club does with Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto. The former could be a trade or non-tender candidate; it’s possible to imagine the latter drawing trade inquiries as well.
Here’s the rest of the slate of announced signings:
- Cristian Alvarado, RHP
- Malquin Canelo, INF
- Martin Cervenka, C
- Daniel Fajardo, C
- Francisco Jimenez, RHP
- Angelo Mora, INF
- Ryan Ripken, INF
Quick Hits: Hill, Wheeler, Twins, O’s, Rays
Free-agent left-hander Rich Hill drew interest from ten teams at last week’s GM Meetings, he tells J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). That interest was in spite of the primary revision surgery Hill has undergone this offseason, which will likely sideline him until at least June. However, Hill, 40 in March, has remained extremely effective when he’s been able to pitch, and it seems teams are keen on him despite the injury risk. The veteran didn’t indicate whether he’d prefer to sign this offseason and rehab under the supervision of a team or wait until he’s fully healthy to showcase for teams next summer.
- The Twins have right-hander Zack Wheeler “very high on their list of pitching targets,” reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That’s unsurprising, as Wheeler is the number three starting pitching option on this year’s free agent market. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in the Twins’ offseason outlook, the organization’s long-term payroll is relatively open, and starting pitching stands as the team’s biggest need this offseason. José Berrios and Jake Odorizzi are the only locks to be in the rotation next season. Wheeler figures to draw a robust market, as the MLBTR staff forecasted him for a five-year, $100MM deal at the offseason’s outset.
- The Orioles have named Rockies assistant Anthony Sanders their first base coach, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the O’s would hire him for that role. Sanders is a former professional outfielder who spent 14 years coaching with the Rockies. He’ll take over for Arnie Beyeler in Baltimore.
- The Rays have hired former Astros scout Greg Brown as their hitting coordinator, Jon Heyman of MLB Network relays. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first suggested the Rays would choose Brown, who had been the head coach at Nova Southeastern University. Heyman notes Brown signed now-Red Sox star J.D. Martinez back when he was a scout with Houston. Of course, Martinez didn’t truly blossom until he ended up in Detroit several years later.
Coaching/Front Office Notes: Bucs, D-backs, Giants, O’s
Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro remains in the running to become the Pirates’ next manager, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The race is seemingly down to Quatraro, Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay and Twins bench coach Derek Shelton, though Heyman notes there may be other unreported names in the mix. Hiring a manager could end up as the first important order of business for new GM Ben Cherington, whom the Pirates brought aboard earlier this week.
- Diamondbacks executives Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter have been mentioned as future general managers, though the two told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) they’re content to stay in Arizona working under GM Mike Hazen. “It would be really hard to leave Arizona not just because of the culture Mike has created, the ease of living, the obvious excitement over the organization. But coming in and building something and wanting to see it through is so important,” said Sawdaye, who added, “If I never become a GM and this is my ultimate job and I’m here for the next 25 years, I can tell you I’ll be darned happy.” Porter echoed Sawdaye, saying: “I’ve never been more excited about working somewhere. I’ve never been more determined and focused to make a team and an organization better.” The feeling’s mutual on the D-backs’ end, as the franchise recently signed the two assistant GMs to extensions.
- Greg E. Johnson has grabbed the reins as the Giants’ control person, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. He’ll take over for Rob Dean, who held the position on an interim basis after MLB suspended now-reinstated president/CEO Larry Baer in March, though Dean is still with the organization. Baer and president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi are now expected to report to Johnson and Dean, but “day-to-day operations should not be affected by Thursday’s moves,” Schulman writes. Johnson’s the son of Charles B. Johnson, who was part of the investment group that bought the Giants in 1993.
- The Orioles are close to hiring Rockies assistant Anthony Sanders as their first base coach, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Sanders is a former major league outfielder who managed at the rookie level with the Rockies, though he was most recently their outfield and base-running coordinator. Assuming Sanders takes over as the O’s first base coach, he’ll succeed Arnie Beyeler.