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Jorge Lopez Elects Free Agency

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The Orioles announced this morning that right-hander Jorge Lopez has cleared waivers and elected free agency. He’ll test the open market this offseason alongside a bevy of right-handed relief options who figure to be available this offseason.

Lopez, 30, made his MLB debut back in 2015 with the Brewers and bounced around the league as a swing option for several years, struggling to a 6.04 ERA and 5.15 FIP from 2015-21 while playing for Milwaukee, Kansas City, and Baltimore. Prior to the 2022 campaign, the Orioles moved Lopez to the bullpen full time, and the early returns on that decision looked to be nothing short of revelatory: the righty was among the most dominant relievers in baseball for Baltimore in 2022, earning his first career All Star appearance while posting a 1.68 ERA with a 2.99 FIP and 27.6% strikeout rate across 48 1/3 innings of work.

On the back of those career-best numbers, the Orioles shipped Lopez to the Twins for a prospect package that included right-hander Yennier Cano and lefty Cade Povich. While the trade was a controversial one at the time thanks to the young Baltimore squad’s impressive run to that point in 2022, the move proved prescient. While Cano has broken out as an elite set-up man for the Orioles in 2023 and Povich is one of the club’s best pitching prospects, Lopez regressed with the Twins last year, posting a 4.37 ERA and 4.35 FIP in Minnesota that was 10% worse than league average by measure of ERA+.

While the Twins brought Lopez back to open the 2023 campaign, his struggles grew even worse this year. After 35 1/3 innings of 5.09 ERA baseball, Minnesota agreed to a change-of-scenery swap with the Marlins that sent Lopez to Miami in exchange for veteran righty Dylan Floro. Lopez continued to struggle in Miami to the point where the club designated him for assignment, leading him to return to the Orioles. His return to Baltimore saw his 2023 struggles continue, and he ended the season with a 5.95 ERA and 5.76 FIP in 61 appearances.

While Lopez’s huge success with the Orioles last season will surely pique the interest of clubs, his struggles this season figure to give even the most intrigued clubs some level of pause. It’s certainly possible he’ll be limited to minor league offers this offseason and have to earn his way back onto a major league roster for 2024 during Spring Training.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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Both the playoff field and the first-round matchups now have been set, so we can get on with deciding who’s going to be holding the Commissioner’s Trophy by the end of the World Series.  After 162 games (well, give or take a Marlins/Mets game that will now be scrapped entirely), the list of contenders has been narrowed to a dozen teams.

The Braves led all of baseball with 104 wins, and their spectacular lineup tied a Major League record with 307 home runs.  Leading the league almost across the board in significant offensive categories this season, Atlanta boasts MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. as their top player, yet the incredible depth of the everyday lineup is a nightmare for opposing pitchers.  Injuries to Max Fried and Charlie Morton have left some questions about the readiness of the staff heading into the playoffs, but if Atlanta’s games start turning into slugfests, the Braves are more than well-equipped for that type of baseball.

Despite a huge swath of injuries to their pitching staff, the Dodgers still finished 100-62 and won the NL West.  It was the fifth time in the last six 162-game seasons that L.A. hit the 100-win threshold, and the Dodgers have now won 10 of the last 11 division titles.  All of that success, of course, has netted “only” one World Series title (in 2020) to date, and it will be up to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to keep carrying the offense while the somewhat makeshift pitching staff will try to produce quality innings.

The Orioles went from 110 losses in 2021 to 101 wins this season, winning the AL East for the first time since 2014.  Baltimore’s extensive rebuild led to a new wave of young talent (i.e. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez) providing a quick impact, while roster holdovers and unexpected hidden gems like Ryan O’Hearn all kept producing for a well-rounded team.  The rotation is either a question mark or perhaps just underrated heading into October, and the O’s want to leave no doubt that their team is for real.

The Astros went into the final series of the season not even knowing if they’d be in the playoffs at all, yet Houston ended up with a first-round bye and their sixth AL West crown in seven seasons.  The defending World Series champs have weathered a lot of pitching injuries and a bit more inconsistency than usual from their lineup, yet if any team knows how to turn up the volume in the postseason, it’s the Astros.

These four teams will get first-round byes, while the other two division champions and the six wild-card teams will have to survive the best-of-three first round.  The AL Central champion Twins and the sixth-seeded Blue Jays will meet in the postseason for the first time since 1991, with Toronto trying to win its first playoff game since 2016 and Minnesota trying to end an unfathomable 0-18 record in playoff games dating back to 2004.  Both the Twins and Jays have relied on recipes of strong starting pitching, solid bullpen work and (especially in Toronto’s case) excellent defense, while the offense has been much more hit-and-miss for each club.  A low-scoring series wouldn’t be a surprise, making things a tossup even though the Twins have the home-field advantage.

The Rays and Rangers spent a good chunk of the season looking like they’d sail to division titles, yet the two clubs will now meet in the Wild Card Series.  Tampa Bay’s ever-deep farm system just kept churning out MLB-ready talent, allowing the Rays to stay steady and win 99 games despite an injury-depleted pitching staff.  Texas had greater issues managing pitching injuries and a very leaky bullpen, and though the Rangers still ended up with 90 wins and a playoff berth, the Rangers’ relief corps stands out as perhaps the biggest weak link of any postseason team.

The Brewers went 92-70 to book their fifth trip to the playoffs in six seasons, with three of those trips coming via the NL Central title.  With a 35-20 record since August 1, Milwaukee has been somewhat quietly marching towards the playoffs in top form, even if scoring runs is still at something of a premium for a team powered by its hurlers.  The Diamondbacks have just about the opposite problem, as they’ll head into the playoffs with a -15 run differential and a season-long problem with rotation depth.  But, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly can be a problem in a short series, and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll will get his first taste of the postseason spotlight.

The Phillies and Marlins meet in an all-NL East edition of the Wild Card Series, with Miami holding a 7-6 head-to-head edge in regular-season play.  After falling short in last year’s World Series, the Phillies are looking to make another run through the entire bracket, setting up the dynamic of a seasoned, veteran squad against an upstart Marlins club who are in the playoffs following a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003.  A huge 33-13 record in one-run games helped Miami reach the postseason despite a -56 run differential — by contrast, Philadelphia was +81.

Looking at the list of twelve, who is your pick to win it all? (poll link for app users)

Felix Bautista To Undergo Tommy John Surgery, Signs Through 2025 Season

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Orioles GM Mike Elias announced this afternoon that right-handed closer Felix Bautista is set to undergo Tommy John surgery in early October. Elias also announced that the club and Bautista had agreed upon a guaranteed, two-year contract that runs through the 2025 campaign. Bautista won’t pitch during the 2024 campaign, and is expected back in time for Spring Training 2025.

Bautista, 28, made his big league debut in 2022 as a member of the Baltimore bullpen and almost immediately became one of the club’s most important arms, with a 2.19 ERA and 2.91 FIP in 65 2/3 innings for the club last year as the Orioles surged to a surprising 83-79 season. The right-hander took another leap forward in his sophomore season to become one of the most dominant relievers in baseball during the 2023 campaign. In 61 innings of work this season, Bautista posted an unbelievable 46.4% strikeout rate that lead all relievers while also leading the pack in FIP (1.88), xFIP (2.30), and SIERA (2.06). Bautista’s sterling 1.48 ERA trailed only four relievers in the majors, and the right-hander figured to be a key part of the Orioles’ first postseason push since 2016.

Unfortunately, those plans went awry in late August when the club announced that Bautista was headed to the injured list with “some degree” of UCL injury. Even at the time, that diagnosis was ominous, given that UCL damage often requires Tommy John surgery. That said, the Orioles left the door open for the 2023 All Star to return to help the club’s playoff push, and the righty began to rehab in hopes of working his way back from the injury. Elias noted at the time that while doctors had indicated Bautista would be able to pitch without causing any further damage to his UCL, a procedure to address the issue would be necessary at some point.

The plan seemed to be going well, at first, as Bautista worked up to 25-pitch side sessions fairly quickly. Ultimately, as relayed by Jake Rill for MLB.com, the right-hander ran out of time to return during the regular season, with just two games left to play on Baltimore’s schedule. That left the Orioles to decide to shut him down for the year, preferring not to activate him during the postseason push without having made lower-leverage appearances first. With Bautista not participating in the postseason, there was little reason to delay the right-hander’s surgery further.

With Bautista not expected to throw a competitive pitch until Spring Training of the 2025, the sides came together on a guaranteed deal that would run through the end of the 2025 season, Bautista’s first year of arbitration eligibility. While the terms of Bautista’s deal with the Orioles have not been disclosed, Elias expressed in comments to reporters (including MASN’s Roch Kubatko) that the deal was a bright spot that should help Bautista focus on the rehab ahead of him.

“I think that’s great, because he can just concentrate on his rehab and getting back on the field. He won’t have any business to attend to in that time,” Elias said. “We did something similar with John Means, and very happy for Félix and for us that that’s out of the way.”

With Bautista officially done for 2023 (and 2024), the Orioles figure to turn to right-handed setup man and fellow All Star Yennier Cano as their primary closer in his absence. Cano has recorded four saves in Bautista’s absence, though he’s struggled to an uncharacteristic 4.76 ERA in 11 1/3 innings of work during that time. Cano’s full-season numbers are much more impressive, as the 29-year-old righty sports a 2.12 ERA and 2.87 FIP in 72 1/3 innings of work with the Orioles this season.

Orioles Designate Jorge Lopez For Assignment

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The Orioles announced that right-hander Jorge Lopez was designated for assignment.  Left-hander Bruce Zimmermann was called up from Triple-A to take Lopez’s spot on the active roster.

Baltimore claimed Lopez off waivers from the Marlins at the start of September, and Lopez posted a 6.10 ERA over 10 1/3 innings of work in the orange-and-black.  While Lopez had a 28% strikeout rate and a 4.0% walk rate over his brief time with the O’s, he also allowed four home runs, sending his ERA skyrocketing.  Lopez was ineligible for postseason play since he was acquired after September 1, and since he was looking like a clear non-tender candidate anyway, the Orioles look to have started his path to free agency a little early.  In all likelihood, Lopez will clear waivers and then be released, unless a team wants to take a quick evaluation before the offseason officially begins.

Lopez has a 5.53 ERA over 478 1/3 innings in the majors, appearing with five different teams over an eight-season career that began in 2015.  The clear highlight of Lopez’s career came during his first stint with the Orioles, when his exceptional first-half performance earned him a spot on the 2022 All-Star team.  The O’s were in postseason contention at last year’s trade deadline, but the team opted to sell high on Lopez by dealing him to the Twins for a four-player package that included Yennier Cano (an All-Star himself in 2023) and left-hander Cade Povich, arguably Baltimore’s top current pitching prospect.

It was a wise move on the Orioles’ part, as Lopez immediately started to regress in Minnesota.  Those struggles deepened in 2023, as Lopez posted a 6.12 ERA over 57 1/3 combined innings with the Twins, Marlins, and Orioles.  Minnesota dealt Lopez to Miami at the trade deadline for Dylan Floro in something of a mutual change-of-scenery deal for both relievers, though neither got on track on a new team. (By coincidence, the Twins just released Floro yesterday.)

Lopez earned $3.625MM in 2023, and would be in line for some kind of minimal raise in his third and final year of arbitration eligibility.  The 30-year-old may have to settle for a minor league deal this winter, in the wake of such a disappointing season.

Details From Orioles’ Stadium Agreement

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After yesterday’s announcement by the Orioles and Maryland Governor Wes Moore indicated that Moore and Orioles chairman John Angelos had reached a deal to keep the Orioles at Camden Yards for another 30 years, the details of the agreement released today paint a less certain picture of the agreement. As noted by Jeff Barker of The Baltimore Sun, the agreement isn’t a new lease. Rather, it’s a “memorandum of understanding” that the Orioles will remain at Camden Yards for the next 30 years, with Barker adding that the agreement is legally non-binding.

Per Barker, Governor Moore’s office indicated that, in addition to the long-term lease not yet being complete, an extension of the current lease “for at least a year or two” may be necessary because the sides have not yet agreed upon the deal’s final terms. As the Orioles note in their press release, the memorandum includes a 99-year agreement that gives the Orioles to invest private capital into developing the area around Camden Yards, including the warehouse and Camden Station. Barker adds that the Orioles figure to pay $94MM to the state over the length of the agreement.

Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner notes that the terms of the memorandum, which he describes as “an agreement on some issues and a promise to continue working toward a long-term lease,” stipulate that the Orioles would no longer pay rent to use the ballpark, and in exchange would take over the costs of upkeep for the stadium, which are currently the responsibility of the state of Maryland. Kostka adds that the sides still expect to have a lease signed before the current deal expires on December 31, though many of the details of the agreement are still being worked out, including oversight of the aforementioned development prospect, which will include both the Maryland Stadium Authority and the Orioles.

Today’s announcement that no lease has been signed is something of a surprise, given the club’s announcement of a deal during last night’s win over the Red Sox that saw the Orioles clinch their first AL East title since 2014. That being said, the memorandum signed by both sides of the negotiations represents what should be an important milestone toward getting a deal completed in advance of the club’s current lease expiring at the end of the 2023 calendar year. The state of Maryland, Angelos, and MLB commissioner Rob Manfred have all routinely emphasized that there is no risk of the Orioles departing Baltimore, even as negotiations regarding the club’s lease at Camden Yards have dragged towards the eleventh hour of the current deal.

Orioles Agree To 30-Year Lease At Camden Yards

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The Orioles are staying at Camden Yards for the foreseeable future, as Orioles chairman John Angelos and Maryland Governor Wes Moore announced this evening. The organization, the state of Maryland, and the Maryland Stadium Authority have agreed upon a new lease that will keep the Orioles in Baltimore for another 30 years. Per Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner, the deal includes two five-year extension options that could extend the terms of the lease into the 2060s.

The news brings to an end negotiations regarding the Orioles’ future in Baltimore. The club first moved into Camden Yards back in 1992 on a 30-year lease that was set to expire just three months from now, at the end of the 2023 calendar year. The Orioles held a five-year extension option on the club’s current lease but declined to exercise it this past February with the goal of reaching an agreement on a longer-term deal later in the year. That goal has now been achieved, though the specific terms of the deal between the club, the local stadium authority, and the state are currently unknown, with full details on the lease expected on Friday.

Angelos had previously been reported to be seeking additional funding and public land in the stadium deal as recently as last month, with Angelos reportedly interested in replicating The Battery in Atlanta, which houses not only the Braves’ Truist Park but a complex of various commercial and residential uses including apartments, restaurants, shops, and event spaces. Complicating those desires is the agreement the Maryland Stadium Authority has in place with the Baltimore Ravens, which contains a clause requiring parity between the Ravens and Orioles regarding the terms of their respective leases.

While it’s unclear if any of the funding or land Angelos was seeking is part of the new lease agreement, it’s worth noting that at the time of the report, sources indicated to The Baltimore Banner that the Orioles would not receive the land and funding they were seeking, and Kostka now reports that plans for a Battery-style development in Baltimore were taken off the table. Regardless of the final terms of the agreement, Kostka notes that the new lease will unlock $600MM worth of state-financed bonds that the Orioles will be able to use to renovate the ballpark in the coming years.

With negotiations regarding potential relocation and stadium renovations nearing varying conclusions in Oakland (or rather, Las Vegas), Tampa, and now Baltimore, MLB continues to clear the way for a potential expansion effort in the coming years. That said, there are still teams that have expressed a willingness to move out of their current stadium: in recent weeks, comments from both Brewers owner Mark Attanasio and White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf have indicated a desire to secure public funding for stadium renovations in the future.

Orioles Activate Ryan Mountcastle

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  • The Orioles announced earlier today that they have activated first baseman Ryan Mountcastle from the injured list, with outfielder Ryan McKenna optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Mountcastle’s return is great news for the AL East-leading Orioles, as the first baseman has slashed .269/.327/.453 in 459 trips to the plate this season. He figures to join a deep 1B/DH mix that already includes Ryan O’Hearn and Anthony Santander ahead of Baltimore’s impending postseason run.

Brooks Robinson Passes Away

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Orioles icon and Baseball Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson passed away at the age of 86, according to an announcement from the team and Robinson’s family — “An integral part of our Orioles Family since 1955, he will continue to leave a lasting impact on our club, our community, and the sport of baseball.”

Tributes have poured in from all around the baseball world, including from fellow Baltimore legend Jim Palmer.  Speaking with MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, Palmer described his former teammate as a “great player, great guy on the field, great guy off.  Respectful, kind.  And you don’t meet too many guys like that.  Brooks was a genuine person.  There was no acting….Just salt of the earth and one of the great guys.  And everywhere I’d go, they would say, ’Yeah, we had Brooks here a couple years ago.’  And he’s a tough act to follow because he was so good and so nice and so warm.  You never forget his smile.”

Commissioner Rob Manfred cited both Robinson’s outstanding work on and off the field, calling the former third baseman “a model of excellence, durability, loyalty and winning baseball for the Orioles.  After his playing career, he continued to make contributions to the game by working with the MLB Players Alumni Association.  I will always remember Brooks as a true gentleman who represented our game extraordinarily well on and off the field all his life.  On behalf of Major League Baseball, I send my deepest condolences to Brooks’ family, his many friends across our game, and Orioles fans everywhere.”

MLB Players Association executive director Tony Clark likewise highlighted how Robinson’s “impact transcended the field — as a prominent voice in the early days of the MLBPA and a relentless advocate for his fellow players and through his work with the Major League Baseball Players Alumni Association.  His humanity, kindness, integrity, and commitment will long endure.”

Robinson signed with the Orioles on a $4K guaranteed contract in 1955, just one year after the club has moved to Baltimore after previously playing as the St. Louis Browns.  In essence, signing Robinson was the symbolic beginning of this new era of Baltimore baseball, as he became the face of the franchise over 23 seasons.

It took a few years for Robinson to really establish himself as an everyday player, in part because of injuries and because the O’s already had a prominent name in George Kell (himself a Hall of Famer) playing third base.  Finally getting healthy and moving into a regular role at third base in 1960, Robinson immediately became not just an Orioles fixture but one of the league’s best players, finishing third in AL MVP voting.

The 1960 season started two prominent streaks for Robinson, as he was both elected to the All-Star Games (MLB played two Midsummer Classics per season from 1959-1962) and won the AL Gold Glove at third base.  Robinson proceeded to get elected to the All-Star team every season until 1974, and won the Gold Glove every season from 1960-75.

The 16 Gold Gloves won by Robinson are the most of any position player in baseball history, with pitchers Greg Maddux (18) and Jim Kaat (16) the only players anywhere on the diamond to match Robinson in defensive recognition.  Widely regarded as the best defensive third baseman and perhaps the best defensive player at any position in baseball history, Robinson wowed peers and fans with his glovework, to the point of being known as the “Human Vacuum Cleaner” for his ability to scoop up grounders anywhere within his wide range.

Robinson’s defensive prowess was obviously a known commodity by 1970, but that year’s World Series was perhaps the biggest showcase possible for the star third baseman.  He was an all-around wrecking crew for the Orioles, hitting .429/.429/.810 in 21 plate appearances during the Series and robbing the Reds of multiple hits in the field.  Most famously, Robinson made an incredible play to throw out Lee May during Game 1 that still stands as one of the best defensive efforts in Series history.  Unsurprisingly, Robinson was named World Series MVP as the Orioles defeated the Reds in five games.

With such stars as Robinson, Palmer, Frank Robinson, Boog Powell, Mike Cuellar, Dave McNally, and many others, the Orioles were regular contenders for most of the star third baseman’s career.  Robinson had a career .303/.323/.462 slash line in postseason play, playing on four AL pennant winners and two World Series championship teams (1966, 1970).

For his career as a whole, Robinson hit .267/.322/.401 over 11782 plate appearances and 2896 career games, all with the Orioles.  His long tenure with the O’s has naturally put him near the top of the franchise’s all-time leaderboard in most categories, with Robinson often ranking second to another long-time infield staple in Cal Ripken Jr.

As noted as Manfred and Clark, Robinson was a force in the founding of the MLB Players Alumni Association, which became one of Robinson’s key focuses after his retirement.  Robinson briefly worked as an Orioles broadcaster after stepping away from the game, and he received a first-ballot induction into Cooperstown in 1983.

We at MLB Trade Rumors share our condolences with the rest of baseball in mourning the loss of one of the sport’s greats, and we pass on our best wishes to Robinson’s family, friends, and many fans.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

AL Injury Notes: Bautista, Mountcastle, Correa, McGuire, Sandoval

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Félix Bautista is inching closer to his return, but his status for the postseason remains up in the air. Manager Brandon Hyde recently spoke to reporters (including Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun) about his star closer, suggesting that the right-hander is running out of time to get back on the mound. It’s not that Bautista has suffered a setback, but he just hasn’t progressed quickly enough to give Hyde much confidence that he can return for the playoffs.

It’s a disappointing development for the Orioles, who are set to embark on their first postseason run since 2016. The 28-year-old has emerged as one of the most dominant relief arms in the game, with a 1.85 ERA across his first two seasons in the majors.

In happier news, Ryan Mountcastle is nearing his return to Baltimore’s lineup. As Ruiz reports, the first baseman took batting practice before this evening’s game against the Nationals. Hyde suggested he could be reinstated tomorrow; if not, he should be back on the field sometime this week.

Here’s some more news from around the American League…

  • The Twins expect Carlos Correa will be ready to play in the AL Wild Card series, and indeed, it’s possible he could be back by the final series of the regular season. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune) that the star shortstop could rejoin the team this weekend in Colorado. Correa has been playing through plantar fasciitis for most of the year, and the question is not whether his injury has healed, but simply if he has rested enough to be able to manage the pain throughout the playoffs. The Gold Glove winner has been taking groundballs in recent days, and he claims to be feeling better.
  • Red Sox catcher Reese McGuire left tonight’s game against the Rays with a left thumb contusion. It’s not a particularly serious diagnosis, but still, it’s not impossible this marks the end of McGuire’s season. The lefty batter hit .271/.314/.365 in 69 games as a backup catcher for Boston. He will be arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter.
  • The Angels have placed starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval on the 15-day IL. To replace him on the active roster, they have recalled Kolton Ingram from Triple-A Salt Lake. Sandoval exited his start last night against the Rangers with tightness in his right oblique, and the injury has proven to be serious enough to end his season six days early. This marks Ingram’s third fleeting call-up of the 2023 season; in 4 1/3 innings for the big league club, he has given up five runs on seven hits. However, his numbers are much better in the minors, where the 26-year-old boasts a 2.95 ERA in 61 innings pitched.

Big Hype Prospects: Caminero, Langford, Holliday, Carter, Marte

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As the clock runs out on the 2023 season, we take a look at the Big Hype Prospects who have advanced their hype-levels to all new… levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Junior Caminero, 20, SS/3B, TBR (MLB)
(AA) 351 PA, 20 HR, 3 SB, .309/373/.548

The will they/won’t they dance with Caminero finally resolved. Despite foregoing a promotion to Triple-A, the Rays saw fit to inject an offensive weapon into their postseason repertoire. Part of me wonders how much gamesmanship went into leaving Caminero at Double-A, as if the Rays could convince their playoff rivals he wouldn’t be promoted, maybe they would scout him less? A player of his age and profile undoubtedly has exploitable weaknesses, so the deeper the Rays can get into the postseason before those weaknesses are discovered, the better. Caminero batted fifth in his first two MLB games, going 2-for-9 with a walk and producing impressive exit velocities on six batted balls. While small sample caveats apply, the beauty of exit velocity is instant gratification. A 112-mph EV immediately validates a hitter as possessing impressive pop. All the other stats, well, they need more time to mature into larger samples.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(4 levels) 200 PA, 10 HR, 12 SB, .360/.480/.677

With Caminero up, Langford is the next future superstar on the cusp of promotion. We discussed him last week prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Since then, he’s batted .368/.538/.526 in 26 plate appearances with MLB-level exit velocities. Round Rock has a three-game series remaining for the PCL Championship, and I suspect we’ll see Langford join the Rangers upon the conclusion of the series. Where he fits on the roster is less certain. Leody Taveras is a quality defender with a league-average bat, and Evan Carter has performed well in limited action. Langford likely represents a net upgrade on both outfielders, but it can be tough to justify changing something that’s working well. Now might be the wrong moment to mess with team chemistry.

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(4 levels) 581 PA, 12 HR, 24 SB, .323/.442/.499

Like Langford, the Norfolk Tides have a championship series over the next three days. If Holliday is summoned to the Majors, it will likely follow these games. He’s had a longer stint in Triple-A, and after a slow start, he’s up to .267/.396/.400 in 91 plate appearances. His average quality of contact is better than a typical Major Leaguer, but his top-end EVs are poor. That’s no cause for concern. Holliday is a teenager. If anything, it might indicate that the Orioles are best served to play it slow rather than forcing an awkward situation with a last-minute promotion. Holliday might represent a modest upgrade over Adam Frazier and Jordan Westburg at second base. He certainly improves upon seldom-used benchman Ryan McKenna. Whether that’s sufficient cause for a promotion is a tough question to answer.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(CPX/AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

Though he is deservedly a Top 10 prospect, Carter profiles differently than most of the top names. He’s one of the surest things in the minors. True stardom might be out of his grasp, especially in this rich era of uber-prospects. Then again, no era of baseball has offered players such tangible opportunity to transform their game. The high-floor, low-ceiling expectation is reinforced by a profile, build, and approach that screams “Brandon Nimmo clone.” Nimmo, of course, recently signed a nine-figure deal entering his age-30 season, hence everyone’s comfort ranking Carter highly. Still, nobody expects Nimmo to carry the Mets. He’s a rich man’s complementary piece. Carter seems destined for a similar role.

Carter is off to a hot start in the Majors. Improbably, he’s hit four home runs in 54 plate appearances as part of a .318/.426/.705 batting line. The dingers, in addition to a .400 BABIP, have served to carry his offensive line beyond even the wildest expectations. Look under the hood, and you’ll see Carter produces only modest quality of contact. He has a knack for barreling the ball, but those barrels aren’t impactful. Like Holliday, this is more of a “now” problem than a future concern. He’ll develop more pop as he ages.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 399 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .279/.358/.454

There are no questions about Marte’s exit velocities. They’re among the best in the game. Alas, a ball smashed into the ground is still a ground ball. He’s running a predictably high BABIP as the result of his worm murdering. He’s not producing any power numbers despite hitting the ball powerfully. We have every reason to anticipate growth from Marte in the coming years. What we’re seeing now is a fantastic platform for a quality Major Leaguer. At present, he’s roughly a replacement-level performer. He’s batting .293/.350/.380 (96 wRC+) in 100 plate appearances. If he can learn to generate any lift whatsoever, he’ll quickly morph into a dangerous hitter.

Three More

Orion Kerkering, PHI (22): Arguably the top pure relief prospect in the minors (excluding those being developed as starters), Kerkering features triple-digit gas. He lives off a filth-monster slider. After starting the season in Low-A, the right-hander made his big league debut on Sunday. He seems destined for high-leverage postseason innings.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Since he has expended his rookie eligibility, this will be Encarnacion-Strand’s last appearance in this column. After an unimpressive August, CES has caught fire in September. Over the last 20 days, he’s batting .378/.429/.778 with six home runs in 49 plate appearances. Volatility will likely always be a part of his game.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (21): Crow-Armstrong drew a trio of starts shortly after his promotion. He looked overmatched and has since been reduced to a pinch runner/defensive replacement role. I fully expect PCA to fill this same role in the postseason – assuming the Cubs hang onto a Wild Card slot.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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