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2017-18 Rule 5 Draft Update

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When we last checked in on this year’s crop of Rule 5 players, there were a combined 11 players — six on active rosters and five on the Major League disabled list — still with their new organizations. That number has fallen to nine, with six players (albeit a different mix) still active in the Majors, plus another three hanging around on the DL. The number could shrink again in the near future, as several of the remaining Rule 5-ers are seldom used pieces, and at least two teams will soon likely have to make a call.

Active Big Leaguers

  • Victor Reyes, OF, Tigers (from D-backs): Reyes has received only 38 plate appearances since our last Rule 5 roundup, hitting .211/.211/.342 in that span. He’s picked up a pair of triples and a double, his first extra-base hits in the Majors, but is hitting just .196/.196/.304 on the season as a whole. The Tigers barely use Reyes, outside of pinch-running and late-game defensive switches, but the longer they commit to hanging onto him, the less likely it becomes that they return him to Arizona. At this point, they’ve played more than a third of the season with an effective 24-man roster, so they seem likely to see this through.
  • Brad Keller, RHP, Royals (from D-backs, via trade w/ Reds): The 22-year-old Keller hasn’t picked up many strikeouts (5.9 K/9) and hasn’t displayed elite control (3.3 BB/9), but he’s sporting a 57.9 percent ground-ball rate in 35 innings for Kansas City — including three starts. He boasts a 2.31 ERA thus far in 2018, though his 0.26 HR/9 mark and 82.2 percent strand rate seem poised to regress. Nonetheless, he’s performed well enough to date that there’s no reason for the Royals to consider cutting ties.
  • Burch Smith, RHP, Royals (from Rays, via trade w/ Mets): Smith, on the other hand, is a more complicated case for GM Dayton Moore and his staff. The 28-year-old is currently lugging a 6.49 ERA to the mound with him after surrendering 10 runs in his past 7 1/3 innings. Smith has racked up 28 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings, but he’s also issued 18 walks and hit two batters. Beyond that, seven of the 26 hits he’s allowed with Kansas City have cleared the fence.
  • Pedro Araujo, RHP, Orioles (from Cubs): Araujo was one of four players in Spring Training with the Orioles who came with Rule 5 status, but he’s the last to remain on their MLB roster. (Anthony Santander, who missed much of last season due to injury, fulfilled his Rule 5 requirements last monthM and was optioned to Triple-A.) Araujo was torched for four runs last night, including a pair of homers, and he now has a 7.71 ERA in 28 innings with the O’s. That’s not exactly a surprise considering the fact that he skipped both Double-A and Triple-A, and to his credit, Araujo has punched out 29 hitters in his 28 frames (albeit against 18 walks and two hit batters). Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun wrote this morning that Araujo’s roster spot could be in jeopardy with Zach Britton coming off the disabled list.
  • Carlos Tocci, OF, Rangers (from Phillies, via trade w/ White Sox): Texas stashed Tocci, 22, on the disabled list with a hip contusion for more than a month and rode his rehabilitation window as long as possible. Since being activated on June 2, Tocci hasn’t logged a single plate appearance. The Rangers’ season looks to be lost, so they may as well hang onto Tocci if they believe he has any shot at a future in the organization. He’s just 2-for-25 in 14 games this season and has struggled in Triple-A, but Tocci was productive for the Phillies’ Double-A club last season and hit well in Double-A during last month’s rehab assignment, too.
  • Elieser Hernandez, RHP, Marlins (from Astros): Hernandez has allowed just 10 earned runs through 23 innings for a 3.91 ERA, but he’s also picked up just 10 strikeouts and yielded five homers. Hernandez, 23, has shown strong control (four walks), but he looks quite hittable through his brief run with Miami so far. As with each team listed in this section, though, they can certainly afford to hang onto him.

On the Disabled List

  • Julian Fernandez, RHP, Giants (from Rockies): Fernandez underwent Tommy John surgery back in April. He’ll accrue MLB service time while spending the season on the 60-day disabled list and will retain his Rule 5 status heading into 2019, if the Giants wish to hang onto him all offseason.
  • Nick Burdi, RHP, Pirates (from Twins via trade w/ Phillies): The Pirates picked up Burdi knowing he’d miss much of the 2018 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he’s yet to throw in the minors. That said, Burdi is a former supplemental-round pick who was selected toward the top of the draft thanks to an 80-grade heater that regularly touches triple digits. If he can get healthy enough to pitch this season, the Bucs will have a free look at a tantalizing power arm.
  • Brett Graves, RHP, Marlins (from Athletics): The Marlins placed Graves on the 60-day disabled list with an oblique strain back on Opening Day, so he’s yet to pitch in the Majors. He has, however, recovered to the point where he’s begun pitching on a minor league rehab assignment. The results haven’t been pretty. Graves has a 6.23 ERA with a 16-to-7 K/BB ratio and four hit batters in 17 1/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. He’s also nearing the end of his 30-day rehab window. His first rehab appearance came back on May 17, so the Marlins have less than a week to determine whether to bring Graves up to the Majors or run him through waivers and offer him back to Oakland.

Returned to Original Organization

Orioles Release Jason Gurka

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  • The Orioles’ Triple-A team in Norfolk announced that it has released left-hander Jason Gurka. Now 30, Gurka has spent the majority of his pro career with the Orioles, who chose him in the 15th round of the 2008 draft. Although, all 18 of Gurka’s major league innings have come with other teams (the Rockies and Angels). After spending last year with the Halos, Gurka returned to the O’s on a minors deal in the offseason and began 2018 with 22 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball, with 9.53 K/9 against 2.38 BB/9, at Norfolk.

East Notes: Yankees, H. Harvey, Soroka, Cespedes

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It turns out top prospect Justus Sheffield might not be the next minor league pitcher in line to join the Yankees’ rotation, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports in his latest video that the club nearly promoted 23-year-old Jonathan Loaisiga for a spot start during a doubleheader, until rain altered their schedule. Rosenthal notes that Loaisiga had never pitched above Low-A ball until this season. It seems like he’s met little resistance this year, though, as he’s posted a 3.13 ERA this season while striking out 10.96 batters per nine against an equally impressive 1.17 walks per nine. Of course, plenty could change by the next time the Yankees need another starter. It’s certainly worth noting that promoting Sheffield last Monday might have improved his chances of making the Super Two cut, had he impressed enough to stick in the rotation from there on out. There will certainly be some entertaining suspense surrounding this situation from here forward.

Other items fresh off the East coast…

  • Orioles prospect Hunter Harvey was scratched from his most recent Double-A start due to a shoulder injury, Dan Connoly of baltimorebaseball.com reports. Harvey’s dealt with plenty of injury issues in his career already, and this latest case (described as “posterior shoulder instability) has left him on an unknown timetable to return to the rotation. Harvey also had Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow in 2016. Even when on the field, he hasn’t been particularly impressive this year. His 5.57 ERA across 32 1/3 innings on the season is an eyesore.
  • Rookie Mike Soroka is set to come off the DL and start Wednesday for the Braves, reports David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. O’Brien adds that manager Brian Snitker plans to hold Soroka to a pitch count of 85-90. Soroka is widely considered to be one of the best right-handed pitching prospects in the game, and he’s backed that up by pitching to a 2.77 FIP in three starts this season while striking out more than a batter per inning.
  • Injury news isn’t looking so good for a division rival, however, as the Mets’ Yoenis Cespedes reportedly left his rehab start tonight with tightness in his right quad. He’ll be re-evaluated tomorrow, but even a small setback is certainly discouraging; Cespedes has been riddled with injuries since signing a four-year, $110MM pact with New York following the 2016 season.

Phillies Genuinely Interested In Manny Machado

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  • The Phillies are genuinely interested in Orioles shortstop Manny Machado, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com hears. Zolecki’s report jibes with one from FanRag’s Jon Heyman, who noted this week that Philadelphia had already reached out to Baltimore in regards to Machado. The 32-30 Phillies have been slumping lately, however, and may not be serious contenders when the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline arrives. Whether they end up vying for Machado and other veterans around the deadline will be determined over the next several weeks, general manager Matt Klentak suggested. “How we come out of June and how we transition into the month of July and what our placement in the standings is in the month of July will be what really dictates what our Trade Deadline strategy is,” Klentak said. “If we are contending and in a legitimate spot to make a run, then I would expect to address that and make moves. We just have to maintain the proper perspective on that and adjust as our performance suggests we adjust.”

Orioles Notes: O'Day, Britton

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  • The Orioles will activate reliever Darren O’Day from the DL on Saturday, per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. O’Day has been out for over a month with a hyperextended right elbow. With Baltimore well out of contention, the 35-year-old O’Day could spend the next several weeks auditioning for other teams as the deadline nears, though he’s still under contract at $9MM for next season. Meanwhile, teammate and impending free-agent reliever Zach Britton could return as early as Monday, Matheson notes. Britton hasn’t pitched at all this season after suffering a ruptured Achilles during the winter.

Orioles Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Grayson Rodriguez

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The Orioles have agreed to a $4.3MM bonus with first-rounder Grayson Rodriguez, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). As expected, per a recent report from Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com, Rodriguez will receive just less than the $4,375,100 bonus pool allocation that comes with the 11th overall pick that the Baltimore used to select him.

Entering the draft, evaluators saw Rodriguez as a clear first-round talent, but graded him just outside the top twenty or so draft-eligible prospects. But the O’s did not feel they were settling for the young right-hander.

Indeed, scouting director Gary Rajsich was effusive in his comments on the team’s top incoming amateur player. “We love him and we were just thrilled he was there for us at pick 11,” said Rajsich, who credited Rodriguez for possessing “a unique combination of power and polish.

Independent prospect rankings just aren’t quite as smitten, clearly, which makes Rodriguez all the more interesting to track as he enters the professional ranks. While the differences are in large part matters of degree and emphasis, there’s a split of opinion.

ESPN.com’s Keith Law, who ranked Rodriguez 22nd on his board, wrote: “[Rodriguez] has more effort in his delivery, and there’s at least a little concern that his trouble repeating it will eventually point him to the bullpen. He also hasn’t shown much of a third pitch to date.” Rajsich, meanwhile, says that his club’s new power arm comes with “advanced command of four pitches” and an “advanced delivery that he can repeat.”

O’s second-rounder Cadyn Grenier is also nearing a deal, Melewski adds. He, too, is expected to come in just under his slot value ($1,923,500).

Latest On Manny Machado

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Manny Machado will likely be the most talked-about name on the trade market this summer, and it would appear that teams are already beginning to inquire with the Orioles about his services. Baltimore GM Dan Duquette confirmed to FanRag’s Jon Heyman that rival clubs have expressed interest, though he unsurprisingly declined to elaborate much.

“We don’t need to negotiate in the press, but I can tell you there are more teams interested now (than the winter),” said Duquette. “If you’re interested in making an impact, this is the player.”

Heyman does report, though, that the Phillies are among the teams that have already reached out on the superstar infielder. The Braves, he adds, have yet to inquire. Philadelphia’s interest in Machado is hardly a surprise given that president Andy MacPhail is the former head of baseball ops in the Orioles front office, while GM Matt Klentak and assistant GM Ned Rice all came up through the Baltimore front office as well.

Heyman also notes that the Orioles’ asking price on Machado is believed by other teams to be far too high at the moment. It’s common in virtually any negotiation (trade or free agent), of course, for the early asking price to be considerably loftier than the ultimate price. Heyman cites a “Phillies-connected person” in suggesting that the Orioles have sought four young players in return for their star.

Certainly, that’s a lot to ask, though any package would typically be headlined by one or two high-level talents and a few secondary pieces. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday (subscription link), the O’s will want a package comparable to the Aroldis Chapman return from 2016, when the Cubs sent Gleyber Torres and three lesser others — Billy McKinney, Rashad Crawford and veteran Adam Warren — to the Yankees to rent Chapman for a few months. Some have expressed skepticism about the possibility of that type of return after J.D. Martinez and Yu Darvish fetched more modest returns, though Rosenthal rightly notes that Machado would be the best position-player rental on the market in recent history.

The Cubs have already come up as an oft-speculated landing spot, though president of baseball ops Theo Epstein emphatically quashed those rumors late last month when he termed such speculation to be off in “fantasy land” and said trade negotiations to that point in the season had been “nil.” The Dodgers, too, are frequently mentioned as a possibility in the wake of Corey Seager’s Tommy John surgery, while the Diamondbacks were among the most heavily linked clubs to Machado in the offseason. Certainly, other clubs figure to join the fray as the deadline approaches, as many teams aren’t yet sure what type of trajectory they’ll plot in late July.

Day 2 Draft Notes: Assessments, McClanahan, Rocker, Wilcox, Heimlich

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Our brief preview post contains links to many of the best sources for draft information heading into the draft. We also wrote up the Tigers’ selection of Casey Mize with the first overall selection and tracked the first round, compensation, and Round A competitive balance picks (1-30; 31-43). Now, with day two of the draft underway, here are some other links and notes:

  • If you want to catch up on the details of yesterday’s action, there are a variety of places worth a look. The Fangraphs team broke out the drafted players and offered capsules on each team’s early haul. ESPN.com’s Keith Law offers a look at “winners and losers” from the first day in a subscription post. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo provides a preview of today’s action. Among the coverage at Baseball America, Teddy Cahill wrote about the unfortunate timing that saw several players drafted while playing in NCAA tournament games.
  • As many of those evaluations reflect, the Rays were credited by many for taking advantage of their large overall bonus pool to snag top talent despite a mid-first-round position. As one example, Tampa Bay grabbed lefty Shane McClanahan with the 31st selection. The University of South Florida junior had notified teams he wanted a $3MM bonus to sign, per Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs (via Twitter). Now, says McDaniel, McClanahan and the team will likely have to compromise a bit. His selection spot came with a $2.22MM slot allocation, but the Tampa Bay organization will also be working to sign another top talent who came off the board later than expected in first-round pick Matthew Liberatore.
  • While those southpaws are expected to sign, a pair of highly regarded young righties appear to be headed to college after going undrafted to this point. Kumar Rocker strongly hinted in an Instagram post that he’ll matriculate at Vanderbilt, as Teddy Cahill of Baseball America notes on Twitter. And Cole Wilcox left no doubt in his own tweet that he’ll play for Georgia, as BA’s Chris Collazo passed along via Twitter. It seems reasonable to presume that both players simply were not presented with opportunities to earn bonuses sufficient to forego their commitments, if they were willing to do so at all. In all likelihood, those players will not end up being drafted in the first ten rounds, as failing to sign a player in those slots means sacrificing pool money, but will end up being plucked at some point in the later rounds (on the off chance that circumstances change for them and/or a drafting team).
  • If there’s a player who looms large despite not yet being picked, it’s certainly Oregon State pitcher Luke Heimlich. As impressive as he has been on the field, Heimlich carries a particularly concerning past. Kurt Streeter of the New York Times was among those to take on this story recently, for those who are not familiar. Needless to say, his draft status is extremely controversial, and it was not particularly surprising to see him end up still available after day one. That probably will not last, however, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, who writes that Heimlich is likely to be chosen at some point. A “handful of teams” have not eliminated the left-hander from consideration, says Passan, who says there’s “basically zero” chance that Heimlick won’t join an affiliated organization, almost certainly via the draft. Notably, Passan also reports that the Orioles talked with Heimlich’s camp about signing him last year, when he was eligible to agree to terms after not being selected. There’s loads of interesting information and analysis in Passan’s article, which is well worth a full read.

Orioles Claim D.J. Snelten

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The Orioles announced that they’ve claimed left-hander D.J. Snelten off waivers from the Giants. Baltimore had an open spot on its 40-man roster, so no corresponding move was necessary. Snelten has been assigned to Triple-A Norfolk for the time being.

[Related: Updated Baltimore Orioles depth chart]

The 26-year-old Snelten is listed at a towering 6’7″ and 245 pounds, and he entered the season ranked as the Giants’ ninth-best prospect, per Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs. While he doesn’t throw especially hard, Snelten possesses an above-average changeup and has performed reasonably well in the upper minors. He allowed five earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his MLB debut this season but comes to the Orioles organization with a career 2.84 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 69 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level. Longenhagen’s scouting report notes that Snelten’s size and unorthodox delivery help him succeed against same-handed batters, while the changeup gives him a viable weapon to use against right-handed opponents.

Snelten was only just selected to the 40-man roster this past offseason, so he has two option years remaining beyond the 2018 campaign. He can be shuttled between Norfolk and Baltimore to lend some depth to the Orioles’ staff, and with several trade candidates in the Baltimore ’pen, it’s possible that a spot will eventually open for Snelten to receive a lengthier look.

O's "Checked On" Trade Interest In Mark Trumbo During Offseason

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Hanley Ramirez is getting interest from “multiple teams” since officially becoming a free agent, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo tweets.  It isn’t any surprise that the veteran slugger is drawing some attention, particularly since he’d be available at a prorated minimum salary while the Red Sox cover the approximately $14.5MM remaining on Ramirez’s contract.  Considering the low price tag, any number of teams could have interest — consider that the Orioles, who are already loaded with first base/DH candidates, have already been linked to Ramirez.  It was only weeks ago that Ramirez was one of the league’s hottest hitters (posting a .330/.400/.474 slash line over 110 plate appearances in March and April) before he fell into a deep slump that led to his release from the Sox.

  • Last winter, the Orioles “checked on” any trade interest in Mark Trumbo, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  It isn’t stated how much interest existed, though one can imagine it was a pretty thin market, given that Trumbo was coming off a rough 2017 season and is owed $26MM in 2018-19.  Trumbo has a decent .292/.320/.427 slash line over 100 PA, though he has only two homers and missed all of April recovering from a quad strain.  The O’s seem primed to be deadline sellers, though they’d likely have to eat some money to facilitate a Trumbo deal.  (Incidentally, he also has a seven-team no-trade clause.)
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