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Axisa On Qualifying Offer Candidates

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Thirteen players will “definitely” receive a qualifying offer, speculates Mike Axisa of CBS Sports. All told, 50 players are eligible for the qualifying offer (pending a couple expected opt-outs). Axisa believes 20 free agents are likely to be extended an offer, although he believes the case for seven of those players is less than certain. With the value of a qualifying offer now set at $15.8MM, we have a better idea of what clubs must risk in order to gain a compensation pick.

If all 20 of Axisa’s picks were to receive an offer, it would set a new record (previous high: 13 players in 2013). Overall, 34 players have received a qualifying offer in past offseasons. All 34 have rejected it – a sign that clubs are conservative with the offer. Here’s more from Axisa:

  • Interestingly, Axisa counts Orioles catcher Matt Wieters among the locks to receive an offer. However, we learned earlier today that the club may prefer to allocate that money elsewhere – if they believe he might accept the offer. To me, there does seem to be a real chance that Wieters would choose to remain with Baltimore for one more season. Camden Yards is one of the best ballparks for a switch-hitter to improve his value.
  • Of Axisa’s seven players “likely” to receive an offer, Ian Desmond strikes me as a near guarantee. While he had a disappointing 2015 season, his track record should easily support a sizable multi-year offer. I could see him accepting the offer only if he knows an injury has permanently reduced his skill set. Similarly, medical information may be the only cause for the Nationals to pass on issuing an offer.
  • Axisa also reminds us of the 14 players who are no longer eligible for a qualifying offer because they were traded mid-season. The biggest names include David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Johnny Cueto. Scott Kazmir and Ben Zobrist were also near-locks for an offer while Gerardo Parra may have played his way into consideration. It’s all moot now.
  • Twelve players have options that are likely to be exercised. Of those, I see Nori Aoki, Joaquin Benoit, and David Murphy as the hardest decisions. All three are team options. As a soon-to-be 34-year-old platoon outfielder, Murphy’s case is easily the most difficult. He’s posted 0.1 fWAR over the last three seasons (1,329 plate appearances) and will be owed $7MM. It’s been speculated that the Angels were at least open to keeping him, but that was before they hired new GM Billy Eppler. Yesterday, we heard the club may prefer to use that money on a “more impactful bat.”

AL East Notes: Wieters, Orioles, Yankees, Hendriks

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Only one World Series has ever ended on a caught stealing, and that rare event took place on this day in 1926.  The would-be base thief?  Of all people, it was Babe Ruth thrown out trying to steal second by Cardinals catcher Bob O’Farrell to end Game Seven and give the Cards their first World Series title.  This was one of a whopping five World Series-deciding games the Yankees have played on October 10 — they clinched victories in 1937, 1951 and 1956, and came up short in 1926 and 1957.

Here’s the latest from the AL East…

  • Will the Orioles issue a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to Matt Wieters?  The Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina and MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski each examine that question in separate pieces, as Wieters’ health status and underwhelming 2015 numbers could make $15.8MM too large a price tag for the O’s to potentially pay.  Wieters could take the QO in order to prove his value in 2016 and elevate his free agent stock for next offseason, though no player has yet accepted a qualifying offer (and it could be a particular surprise if a Scott Boras client like Wieters was the first to do so).  If Wieters did accept the QO, Encina notes that he’d be taking up budget room that could prevent Baltimore from re-signing Chris Davis or making another big free agent splash.  “Some in the industry believe the Orioles” are willing to go with a Caleb Joseph/Steve Clevenger catching tandem in 2016 rather than Wieters, Melewski writes, though in not making Wieters a QO, Baltimore would lose the chance at a first-round draft pick as compensation for Wieters signing elsewhere.
  • In another piece from Melewski, he cites Marco Estrada, Doug Fister and Ian Kennedy as possible fits for the Orioles this winter since it’s unclear as to whether the O’s will shop at the top of the free agent pitching market.
  • Brian Cashman will have to “get creative” to upgrade the Yankees given the number of big contracts already on the books, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News writes, such as how the GM added Didi Gregorius and Nathan Eovaldi last winter.  Feinsand also suggests four more ways for the Yankees to improve next year, such as deciding on who plays second base, finding playing time for Greg Bird, signing Justin Upton and staying away from David Price.
  • Liam Hendriks was a member of five different organizations between December 2013 and October 2014 but he has seemingly found some stability as an important member of the Blue Jays bullpen.  The Australian righty talks to Fangraphs’ David Laurila about his move to relief pitching, his increased velocity and the stress of switching teams so often within that 11-month span.

AL East Notes: Samardzija, Johnson, Kline

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The Yankees are likely to pursue righty Jeff Samardzija in free agency, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. He’s viewed by the organization as a competitor who could be had at a nice price given his forgettable 2015 campaign. Of course, the 30-year-old could see interest from a variety of other clubs for the same reasons. He’ll be one of the more interesting players to watch in free agency.

Here are few more AL East notes:

  • Red Sox lefty Brian Johnson made one big league start this year, but shortly after was shut down with elbow issues. But he’s back to throwing again, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports, and appears to be structurally sound. “They said my UCL [ulnar collateral ligament] was like I hadn’€™t even pitched,” Johnson said. “It was really, really good. It was nothing ligament-related.” The hope is that the 24-year-old will be ready for a normal spring. Given his strong results at Triple-A before the elbow difficulties arose, he remains an interesting near-future piece for a team that also has Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens showing promise early in their big league careers.
  • Another Orioles right-handed pitching prospect is dealing with early-career injury woes, as Branden Kline had Tommy John surgery yesterday, according to Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. A second-round draft pick in 2012, Kline missed much of the year as he attempted to avoid the procedure. He pitched to a 3.66 ERA over 39 1/3 Double-A innings on the year before being shut down.

AL Notes: Tigers, Rotation, Rondon, Gwynn, Bundy, Yanks

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Tigers GM Al Avila addressed the press today, and Chris Iott of MLive.com has the story (or, if you prefer, the video). We already touched upon his comments regarding the possibility of a J.D. Martinez extension. He also noted the importance of bolstering the pitching staff, saying that the “hope is to find two starting pitchers” — one toward the top of the staff and another back-end arm. The club will also consider newly-acquired youngsters Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, and Michael Fulmer for starting jobs, along with the struggling Shane Greene — who could instead move to relief duty. Speaking of the pen, Avila noted that adding a lockdown closer would be “a tough task” given the paucity of 9th-inning arms on the market. He also noted that pitching was a greater priority than adding in the outfield, where the team feels good about youngster Tyler Collins. Though Avila didn’t reveal details, he said the cash would be there to make the additions that the team needs: “We’ll have a highly competitive payroll, as we have in the past.”

Here’s more from Detroit and the rest of the American League:

  • Tigers reliever Bruce Rondon took the closer job briefly but was ultimately sent home early for an apparent lack of effort. Avila says that the fireballer will need to prove that he is committed and capable, with the GM saying he’s “keeping my fingers crossed that the lesson was learned and he comes back ready to go.” One player who won’t be coming back is veteran infielder Josh Wilson, who has been told he’ll not be re-signed. And Avila said that long-time backstop Alex Avila — who is, of course, his son — is also expected to end up with a new organization.
  • Changes in the Mariners’ front office continued on Thursday, as Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reported that director of player development Chris Gwynn has stepped down from his post (Twitter link). The Mariners have since confirmed Gwynn’s resignation, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets that his expectation for the role to be filled by Angels assistant GM Scott Servais — a lieutenant of new Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto when the two worked together in Anaheim.
  • Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy threw off a mound on Wednesday for the first time since shoulder troubles caused him to be shut down for the season in May, writes the Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina. Bundy, formerly rated as the No. 2 overall prospect in the game by both Baseball America and MLB.com, threw 20 pitches in the side session. Director of player development Brian Graham said that Bundy has no physical issues and showed good velocity. The team will decide if he’s to throw in winter ball or possibly the Arizona Fall League, but as Encina notes, getting him some work will be important. Bundy is out of minor league options and will have to stick on the Opening Day roster to avoid waivers next season, so getting him back into game shape carries extra importance for Baltimore.
  • The Yankees have quite a bit of work to do heading into the offseason, writes MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom. Unfortunately, the team doesn’t have much in the way of financial “wiggle room” to pursue the likes of David Price, Zack Greinke or Justin Upton, despite the fact that each player would fill a need for the club, Bloom opines. Perhaps chief among the Yankees’ needs will be to determine if age, injuries or simply general wear and tear contributed to the decline of Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Chase Headley and Carlos Beltran down the stretch, he adds.

 

AL East Notes: Rays, Hanley, Red Sox, Matusz

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The Yankees’ postseason didn’t last long, as the team fell, 3-0, to the Astros in tonight’s American League Wild Card game. Their focus will now shift to the offseason, but here are some notes on the other teams in the AL East that have already been plotting out their winter game plans…

  • The Rays are having conversations about payroll constraints, general manager Matthew Silverman told reporters, including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). As Silverman points out, the top 10 teams in the league averaged a payroll that was $100MM greater than the Rays’ 2015 mark of $75MM. Payroll restrictions typically prevent the Rays from significant free-agent expenditures, and they also prevent Tampa Bay from being able to hang onto many of their homegrown stars. A look at MLBTR’s arbitration projections shows that the Rays could have some tough calls on their hands this winter, as their 11 arb-eligible players project to earn a combined $28.9MM.
  • The Red Sox are asking Hanley Ramirez to drop 15 to 20 pounds this offseason, interim manager Torey Lovullo told Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. The organization feels that as an infielder, it’ll pay off to be more agile than was required in left field. Ramirez was listed at 225 pounds this season, though Lauber notes that he reported at 240 pounds — 10 pounds heavier than he was in 2014. While the Sox will likely make an effort to trade Ramirez his offseason, he’ll be penciled in at first base if he returns to the club in 2016.
  • Lauber’s colleague, Jason Mastrodonato, asks five critical questions for the Red Sox as they head into the offseason. Among them are whether or not Christian Vazquez will be able to throw right away next season (the young catcher had Tommy John surgery earlier this year), if Rusney Castillo’s bat will merit regular playing time and if the team can effectively develop starting pitching or if changes are needed.
  • Arthroscopic surgery on the right (non-throwing) shoulder of Orioles lefty Brian Matusz went as planned today, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. Matusz said that the recovery process should take about a month, which should give him time to recover and have a typical offseason. Matusz is arbitration eligible for the final time this offseason and will be a free agent next winter.

Duquette, Showalter On Pitching, Davis, Machado, Harvey

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Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette and skipper Buck Showalter addressed the media together yesterday, as Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. The pair is set to continue on for 2016, with Showalter explaining that both are committed to putting the club back in contention after a somewhat disappointing year.

Here are some more highlights;

  • Duquette talked about the club’s needs heading into the offseason, saying that “we need to focus on a stronger pitching staff.” As for whether the club can afford to upgrade its rotation and bring back slugger Chris Davis, he made no promises but left open the possibility: “I don’t know what the final market’s gonna be for Chris Davis, but having looked at some of the other contracts, it’s gonna be a lot of money. And we’re gonna have to weigh the competitiveness of the team and the need of the team to staff a strong pitching staff. I don’t know where the money’s going to end up, but we have enough resources in this market to field a competitive team and our aim is to do that again in ’16.”
  • Baltimore is assessing whether to make qualifying offers to Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters, per the report. “The qualifying offer is under consideration for all those players,” Duquette said. “The club has to decide that by the end of the World Series, so we’re currently working on that.” It still seems probable that all three will be recipients, though the backstop Wieters seems most likely to avoid the QO.
  • In terms of pursuing offensive additions, Duquette said the focus would be in acquiring players with good on-base skills.
  • While the Orioles would love to extend third baseman Manny Machado, Duquette says that pursuing a new deal with him is not atop the organization’s priority list, as Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports. “It is heartening that Manny wants to play here, we’ve got him for three more years and that’s something we can consider in the offseason but I’ve got to tell you, we got a lot more work to do,” Duquette said. “We’ve got a lot more work to do and the fact that Manny’s gonna be here for the next three years under his current arrangement, doesn’t mean that’s a back-burner item, but we have a lot more urgent things to look at.”
  • Duquette also noted that he has had discussions with Machado’s reps in the past, but said that they “didn’t quite get to a deal.” It was wise of the O’s to try, because Machado’s combination of performance and age figure to make him exceedingly expensive to lock up, even after accounting for his somewhat worrying injury history.
  • Meanwhile, Duquette said that highly-regarded pitching prospect Hunter Harvey will not require surgery, at least for the time being. “The doctors are recommending based upon the healing they’ve seen, they’re recommending he continue to pitch,” said the club’s top baseball decisionmaker. “If he does throw four to six weeks from now and still has an issue, we can do the surgery then. But we’ve sent him to see several doctors and they’re all recommending he continue to throw.”

Orioles’ Owner: Duquette, Showalter Will “Absolutely” Return In 2016

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Though there’s been some reported tension in the Baltimore front office, Orioles owner Peter Angelos was as direct as possible when asked by MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko whether each would return in 2016. “Absolutely, yes,” Angelos replied. The owner went on to say that he would “probably urge them to sign for additional years” once their current contracts, which run through 2018, expire.

Additionally, Angelos stated that his intention is to re-sign first baseman Chris Davis — the highest profile among the six free agents that the Orioles stand to lose. (The others are Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Wieters, Darren O’Day, Gerardo Parra and Steve Pearce.) With a .262/.361/.562 batting line, 47 homers and solid first base defense (to say nothing of the versatility to fill in at a corner outfield position or third base, if needed), Davis has positioned himself as the free-agent market’s premier power threat and will command a contract well in excess of $100MM.

That type of spending has previously been out of Angelos’ comfort zone, as the Orioles have typically operated with a mid-range payroll and have never spent more than $85.5MM on a single contract (Adam Jones holds their current record). Last night, Duquette voiced a similar hope of retaining Davis, though he cautiously noted that the Orioles would be able to sign a contract that has a “semblance of reason” to it.

Kubatko also notes that Duquette and Showalter hope to retain the entirety of the coaching staff for the 2016 campaign, but that’s far from certain at this juncture. Specifically, he writes that pitching coach Dave Wallace has received some interest from other clubs.

Duquette On Pitching Staff, Offseason, Chris Davis

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Orioles general manager Dan Duquette joined Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com on 105.7 The Fan in Baltimore last night following the conclusion of the regular season and discussed a number of topics pertaining to the Orioles’ offseason. As Mewleski writes in summarizing much of the conversation, Duquette believes fixing the team’s pitching staff is his “No. 1 priority in the offseason.”

While he stressed a need for improvement from members of the pitching staff that will be returning for the 2016 season, Duquette also added, “…we’re also going to need to add pitching depth from outside the organization.”

The Orioles have a number of free agents this season, with Wei-Yin Chen and Darren O’Day leading the way among departing pitchers. Chen was unquestionably Baltimore’s best starting pitcher this season, as evidenced by a 3.34 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 40.5 percent ground-ball rate across a career-best 191 1/3 innings. Orioles starters ranked 25th in baseball in 2015 with a 4.53 ERA, and removing Chen from the picture, the other Baltimore starters combined for an alarming 4.85 ERA.

Chen will receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the O’s will at least net a compensatory draft pick if he chooses to sign elsewhere this offseason. He’s clearly due for a considerably larger contract than his initial three-year, $11.388MM deal with the Orioles (which contained a since-exercised $4.75MM club option as well).

The hit to the bullpen is slightly more manageable, though that’s not to undersell O’Day’s value. The Orioles are simply better-equipped to lose an elite relief arm than they are a quality rotation piece; Zach Britton will reprise his role as closer, and he’ll be joined by a quality relief arm in Brad Brach. Brian Matusz, presumably, will return if today’s arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder goes smoothly. Still, the loss of O’Day would sting, as the 32-year-old has a combined 1.92 ERA in his four years with the Orioles.

Turning to the position player side of the equation, Baltimore is set to lose Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Steve Pearce and Gerardo Parra. While Duquette made general comments about a desire to retain all of those players, he also specifically expressed a desire to retain Davis: “Chris Davis in particular had a really good year. … It’s no secret the club would like to have him to come back and we’re going to do what we can.”

Of course, the question with Davis, a Scott Boras client coming off a 47-homer season, is whether or not Baltimore can afford him. The Orioles’ current franchise-record contract is Adam Jones’ six-year, $85.5MM extension, but re-signing Davis would assuredly mean a new record-setting contract — one well in excess of $100MM. Duquette was asked by Melewski whether or not Davis could fit into the team’s payroll. “We have a very competitive market and we fund our payroll about in the middle and we have some flexibility in our payroll for next year. So, the answer to that question is I believe yes. I believe yes,” he replied. Duquette, though, went on to hedge the answer a bit, noting that a contract would have to have “a semblance of reason to it,” suggesting that the plan of attack won’t be to re-sign Davis at any and all costs.

It’s worth noting that there’s been some reported tension among the Orioles’ decision-makers, in part because of the failure to adequately replace Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, who departed via free agency last winter. That doesn’t ensure that Duquette and his staff will go to drastic measures to retain Davis, but it’s worth wondering if there will be increased pressure to avoid similar internal scrutiny this offseason.

AL Notes: Chen, Hamilton, Athletics, Walters

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Wei-Yin Chen’s start against the Yankees on Saturday was likely his last for the Orioles, Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com notes. Chen is expected to depart via free agency. “I would be happy if I was given the chance to come back here,” says Chen. “But sometimes as a professional player, it’s inevitable that you have to change teams and adapt to a new environment. I don’t know where I will pitch next year, I just know I will do my best to pitch [in] each game.” Chen’s initial big-league contract, which covered the 2012-14 seasons, included a 2015 option, and ended up costing a total of about $16MM, was a success for the Orioles — Chen gave them more than 700 quality innings, posting an ERA+ at or better than league average in all four seasons. At age 30, he’s now in good position to cash in on the free agent market. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted in August, though, the qualifying offer the Orioles figure to extend could affect Chen’s value, particularly given the market’s strong group of pitchers. Here’s more from the American League.

  • As part of their complex deal to acquire him in April, the Rangers control Josh Hamilton’s rights through 2017, with the Angels taking on most of his salary. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets that the Rangers’ obligation going forward is extremely minimal — they’ll pay Hamilton nothing in 2016 and only $2MM in 2017. Hamilton has played a small role on the 2015 Rangers, batting .247/.287/.407 in 174 plate appearances.
  • Billy Burns and Mark Canha both unexpectedly played key roles for the Athletics this year, John Hickey of Bay Area News Group writes. Burns thought he would spend most of the year with the Athletics’ Triple-A affiliate in Nashville, while Canha thought he’d be with the Marlins’ Triple-A team in New Orleans. Instead, Burns started about three-quarters of Oakland’s games in center field and hit .295/.333/.394, also stealing 26 bases. Canha, meanwhile, headed to the A’s in the Rule 5 Draft and batted .249/.308/.413. Their emergences have been bright spots in what has otherwise been a lost year for the Athletics.
  • The Indians have announced that infielder/outfielder Zach Walters had shoulder surgery on Friday to fix a labral tear. He’ll be out five to six months, and the team hopes he’ll be ready for the start of the 2016 season. The Indians acquired Walters for Asdrubal Cabrera in 2014 after a hot half-season at Triple-A Syracuse, but he hasn’t been able to maintain the power-hitting pace he set then, either in the minors or the big leagues. He spent most of this season with Triple-A Columbus, batting .249/.310/.416 in 379 plate appearances.

Rosenthal On Eppler, Cherington, Orioles, Black

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Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video on FOX Sports:

  • Nothing is official, and it’s hard to tell what Angels owner Arte Moreno might be thinking, but the Yankees still believe assistant GM Billy Eppler will get the open GM job in Anaheim. One possible reason the Angels haven’t yet made the announcement is that they might have to face the Yankees in the AL Wild Card matchup.
  • Former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington isn’t likely to try to get a GM job this offseason, but perhaps the Phillies job could be appealing to him, since he and Phillies owner John Middleton both went to Amherst. If Cherington takes a GM job, he’ll want to work with someone he trusts.
  • The Orioles have extended bench coach John Russell’s contract, but have not done the same for their other coaches, and it looks like changes could be afoot. Pitching coach Dave Wallace appears most likely to head elsewhere (and other teams are already inquiring about his availability). Any potential coaching changes could lead to disagreements between GM Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter.
  • The Marlins and Nationals could be potential landing spots for manager Bud Black, and the Braves might also become a possibility at some point, given that he once worked as an assistant to current Braves exec John Hart. The Dodgers might also come into play if they part ways with Don Mattingly.
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