AL East Notes: Aviles, Rays, Blue Jays, Jenks
Mariano Rivera recorded his 601st career save yesterday against the Blue Jays, tying Trevor Hoffman for the all-time mark. John Harper of the New York Daily News writes that, while Joe Girardi isn't about to keep Rivera out of a save situation if one arises today, it would be nice if the Yankees didn't have to use their closer again in Toronto. New York begins an eight-game homestand tomorrow, which could allow Rivera to notch the record-setting save in Yankee Stadium. Here are the rest of this morning's AL East notes:
- Mike Aviles told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he asked the Royals to trade him at the deadline this season, knowing he wasn't a part of the team's long-term plans. Aviles has been an important acquisition for the Red Sox, given the injuries to Jed Lowrie and Kevin Youkilis. The utility man has hit .361/.373/.458 in part-time action since arriving in Boston.
- Within the same piece, Rosenthal notes that you could argue the Rays should have added a bat at the deadline, given their current presence in the Wild Card race. However, the club was 8 1/2 games out of the Wild Card at the time, and didn't want to compromise their team defense for an offensive upgrade.
- John Tomase discusses Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays in a piece for the Boston Herald, and the Jays GM offers a few interesting quotes. Anthopoulos says the primary challenge of the AL East isn't going up against the massive payrolls of the Red Sox and Yankees, but rather competing with a handful of smart general managers who know how to run a team.
- More Anthopolous, on the most efficient way for the Blue Jays to add talent: "The trade route where we are right now is important for us. It's going to be a big part of what we're doing and it is. Free agency is the last route we want to go. At some point we'll have to start delving into it a little more, but I still want to try to avoid it at all costs. If we try to do this through the draft, it's going to be a while. And it's not going to work and we're not going to get it to time properly."
- Bobby Jenks tells Michael Vega of the Boston Globe that he's disappointed the first season of his two-year deal with the Red Sox turned out so poorly. He's optimistic about being ready for Spring Training and being able to contribute in 2012 though. The reliever says that although he hasn't undergone his spine surgery yet, the doctors are talking about "weeks and not months" for the recovery.
Rosenthal On Votto, Epstein, Sabathia, Beinfest
Let's take a look at this week's edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..
- The Reds aren't going to shop Joey Votto but they'll at least listen to trade inquiries this winter. Cincinnati could come back with Votto for one more year at $9.5MM and play Yonder Alonso in left field but Votto's salary rises to $17MM in 2013 and Alonso's best position is first base. Reds owner Bob Castellini won't want to trade Votto, just as he didn't want to deal veterans at the deadline. However, the Reds would be looking at much more value for Votto at two years away from free agency rather than one year away.
- The Red Sox will likely avoid a historic collapse but if they don't, all bets are off. Manager Terry Francona is technically unsigned for next season as they hold options on him for the next two seasons. Meanwhile, GM Theo Epstein might want to leave for the Cubs regardless, if the Cubs give him more power in baseball operations. The question still remains whether BoSox owner John Henry would allow him to talk with one year left on his contract.
- It would be interesting to see how the Yankees react if, as expected, C.C. Sabathia opts out of his contract. The Bombers have had contentious negotiations with key players in years past, but Sabathia is different. The hurler is only 31-years-old and coming off of three outstanding years in New York. If the talks to turn ugly, he'll certainly have other options.
- Marlins GM Larry Beinfest has let it be known that he would like a chance at the Cubs position. Rival executives say that Beinfest is unhappy with the recent reassignment of Jim Fleming the increasing involvement of owner Jeffrey Loria. The Cubs' level of interest in Beinfest is currently unknown.
Outrighted To Triple-A: Spears, Delaney, Ekstrom
Here's the latest round of players that cleared waivers and were outrighted to the minors, courtesy of the International League transactions page…
- The Red Sox outrighted Nate Spears to Triple-A. The 26-year-old infielder played in just three games for Boston before being designated for assignment to help make room on the roster for Trever Miller and Joey Gathright earlier this week.
- The Rays outrighted Rob Delaney to Triple-A. Delaney, 26, was designated for assignment a few days ago to make room on the roster for top prospect Matt Moore. The right-hander spent most of the year in Triple-A, pitching to a 1.86 ERA in 67 2/3 relief innings.
- The Rays also outrighted Mike Ekstrom to Triple-A. The 28-year-old righty appeared in just one big league game this year, instead pitching to a 4.35 ERA in 68 1/3 minor league innings. Ekstrom was designated for assignment earlier in the week to make room on the roster for Russ Canzler.
Red Sox Notes: Fister, Harden, Adams, Orioles
The odds say the Red Sox have a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs, but I'm guessing that's not going to console most Red Sox fans. Boston leads Tampa Bay by three games in the Wild Card race, but that gap might have been wider by now if they had made different moves at the trade deadline. Alex Speier of WEEI.com has the details on the deadline deals that didn't happen…
- When the Red Sox made cursory inquiries about Doug Fister, it became clear that the Mariners were aiming high and looking for a right-handed bat. Since joining the Tigers, Fister has a 2.28 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 51 1/3 impressive innings.
- The Red Sox were set to acquire Rich Harden from the A’s, but once they looked at his medical records, they were no longer willing to include both Lars Anderson and a player to be named. The PTBNL would have come from a list of high-upside players in the lower minors.
- Raul Alcantara, an 18-year-old Dominican who signed for $500K in 2009 and Brandon Workman, a second round pick in last year’s draft, would have been on the list.
- The Red Sox also kicked around the idea of acquiring Harden’s former teammate, Brad Ziegler, who ended up going to Arizona.
- The Padres weren’t thrilled with Boston’s prospects, so Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein never came close to completing deals for Mike Adams or other Padres relievers.
- The Orioles and Red Sox never exchanged names regarding a possible Koji Uehara deal.
Quick Hits: Clippard, Storen, Ellsbury, Braves
B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Casey Kotchman all homered for the Rays tonight as Tampa Bay defeated Boston, 9-2, in the opener of a big four-game series. The Red Sox now have just a three-game lead over the Rays (and a four-game lead over the idle Angels) for the AL Wild Card.
Some notes from around the league….
- If Drew Storen is traded, Tyler Clippard shouldn't become the Nationals' closer since he's proven to be invaluable as the team's go-to reliever, argues Ben Goessling of MASNsports.com. It could be a moot point, though, since Goessling says it's "unlikely" that the Nats deal Storen.
- The Rays were the first team to discover Jacoby Ellsbury, drafting him in the 23rd round of the 2002 draft. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal talks to the scouts who pushed for Tampa Bay to pick Ellsbury, who instead decided to attend Oregon State.
- Frank Wren tells David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that no decision has been made about Alex Gonzalez's future with the Braves, but both the club and the shortstop sound open to Gonzalez returning in 2012. Gonzalez is popular in the clubhouse and would be an ideal bridge at shortstop to prospect Tyler Pastornicky.
- Mike Newman of Fangraphs profiles Braves minor league left-hander Ronan Pacheco, who "is simply too perfect an example of a pitcher who bucks just about every prospect stereotype on both the statistical and scouting sides to not discuss."
- Matt Eddy of Baseball America recaps this week's minor league transactions.
- David DeJesus "appears the least likely to return" of the Athletics' three free agent outfielders, writes MLB.com's Jane Lee. Josh Willingham and Coco Crisp are also free agents this winter and Willingham said earlier today that he would like to stay with Oakland.
- Angels GM Tony Reagins tells Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register that he doesn't regret giving Bobby Abreu the $9MM option for 2012 that vested in July.
AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Rivera, Johnson, Andino
The Rays and Red Sox begin a four-game set at Fenway Park tonight that could very well determine the AL Wild Card. Here are some items about both clubs, plus the rest of the AL East…
- Trades and middling draft results have robbed the Red Sox of pitching depth, opines ESPN's Jim Bowden (Insider subscription required). With more good arms in the system, Bowden argues that Boston could have had reinforcements ready to step in when Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz hit the DL, or could've used those young prospects to acquire a more reliable starter than Erik Bedard.
- The Blue Jays will at least check in on Jonathan Papelbon this winter, writes MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm, though Chisholm notes that it isn't Alex Anthopoulos' style to sign relievers to expensive, multiyear contracts. Chisholm also looks at Frank Francisco and Adam Loewen's respective futures in Toronto as part of the mailbag piece — Chisholm thinks Francisco will leave, while Loewen is out of options and will probably only have a spot on the team if the Jays cut Mark Teahen.
- Mariano Rivera is a Yankees legend today, but Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York looks at how 20 years ago, the Sandman wasn't even the most regarded prospect in his own family. "If you turn the clock back and you ask who was the best Rivera in our system, it was Ruben," says Brian Cashman. "Mariano was just known as Ruben’s cousin.''
- Writing for USA Today, Patrick DiCaprio looks at how Orioles reliever Jim Johnson fits the prototype of a closer. Johnson could very well finish games next season given that Baltimore seems to have lost patience with Kevin Gregg, though we've also heard that the O's have explored converting Johnson to a starter. You can keep track of Baltimore's late-game situation all winter long at MLBTR's sister site, Closer News.
- Robert Andino has finally gotten the chance to show he belongs in the Majors, writes Brittany Ghiroli for MLB.com. The versatile infielder has definitely earned a roster spot with the Orioles for next year.
- The Rays' somewhat surprising performance in 2011 makes it clear that they will be contenders again in 2012 and possibly for years to come, writes Rob Neyer.
Jacoby Ellsbury’s Arbitration Case
A year ago, Jacoby Ellsbury had nearly as many trips to the disabled list (three) as he did extra base hits (four), which tells you much of what you need to know about his season. It’s hard to imagine a more complete turnaround for the 28-year-old, who might be the American League’s MVP in 2011.
The increase in productivity foreshadows an offseason raise for Ellsbury, who will be arbitration eligible for the second time after the season. He earns $2.4MM this year and, as you might imagine, stands to earn much more through arbitration in 2012 and 2013 before hitting free agency after the ’13 campaign.
How much more? Let’s start by examining the case of Hunter Pence, a similar player who’s ahead of Ellsbury in terms of service time. Pence earned a $3.4MM raise last offseason after putting together a solid season in 2010.
Two weeks' worth of games remain this year, yet it’s already clear that Ellsbury’s platform season blows Pence’s away (see note 1). From a career standpoint, Ellsbury is comparable to where Pence was a year ago (see note 2).
With far better platform numbers and comparable career numbers, it won’t be hard for agent Scott Boras to argue that Ellsbury deserves a raise that exceeds the $3.4MM boost Pence obtained a year ago. In that sense, Pence’s raise is a springboard for Ellsbury.
Our latest projections have Ellsbury making $6.8MM next season, which would represent a $4.4MM raise (though it would fall short of Pence’s current $6.9MM salary). Ellsbury could earn significantly more than $6.8MM if he brings in lots of offseason hardware and no award would affect his bank account like the MVP.
Last year’s winner, Josh Hamilton, did not end up going to arbitration, but we have a sense of how his hearing would have gone from the numbers filed by his agency and the Rangers. Boras, who will no doubt mention Hamilton, will be careful in bringing filing numbers up, since arbitrators view them differently than actual, agreed upon salaries (see note 3). Hamilton filed for $12MM last year and the Rangers countered at $8.7MM, conceding that Hamilton’s MVP season had earned him a raise of at least $5.45MM (see note 4).
Jose Bautista, who emerged as one of the game’s best players last year, earned $2.4MM during his breakout year – exactly what Ellsbury earns this year. Like Hamilton, Bautista signed an extension before going to an arbitration hearing, though he completed the deal after the Blue Jays offered $7.6MM in arbitration. In other words, the Dominican slugger was headed for a worst-case-scenario raise of $5.2MM.
Hamilton and Bautista showed that players can overcome low career totals in arbitration with a huge platform year, but Ellsbury’s history won’t be forgotten. The Red Sox could point out Ellsbury’s shortcomings when it comes to length and consistency of career contribution if the sides go to a hearing.
He was limited to 18 games last year after fracturing his ribs in an April collision with Adrian Beltre and had three separate stints on the disabled list. While Boras might argue that the injury was fluky and doesn’t present long-term concerns, he wouldn’t debate that it will limit his client’s negotiating power (see note 5).
To match the raises Texas and Toronto offered their respective stars last winter, Boston would have to offer a 2012 salary in the $7.5-8MM range. Boras, of course, could file for considerably more. It’s early and Ellsbury’s earning potential depends on the season’s final two weeks, the playoffs and postseason award voting. Even at this point, we can safely say that he’s headed for a salary that exceeds $6MM. Millions more than that are within Ellsbury's grasp, not that the Red Sox are complaining.
Notes:
1 – Ellsbury already has more homers (27 vs. 25), more RBI (94 vs. 91), more runs (109 vs. 93), more stolen bases (36 vs. 18) a higher average (.320 vs .282), a better on-base percentage (.379 vs. .325) and a better slugging percentage (.544 vs. .461) than Pence posted in 2010. Ellsbury was an All-Star (Pence was not) and will collect MVP votes (Pence did not).
2 – Both have a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting and one All-Star selection. Pence had more homers (92 vs. 47), RBI (315 vs. 224) and a better slugging percentage (.481 vs. .446). Ellsbury has more runs (330 vs. 304), more stolen bases (172 vs. 54) a higher average (.300 vs. .287) and a better on-base percentage (.355 vs. .336). It’s also worth noting that Ellsbury has 22 games of postseason experience (.261/.316/.391 line with 5 steals) and a World Series ring, while Pence has never appeared in the playoffs.
3 – Similarly, the Red Sox have to be careful about pointing to the salaries Hamilton ($7.25MM) and Jose Bautista ($8MM) are earning in 2011, since the salaries are part of carefully structured mutliyear deals.
4 – Hamilton won a batting title and led the league in slugging percentage and OPS, but Ellsbury doesn’t lead the league in any traditional stats (he leads all of baseball in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement – not that there’s precedent for WAR convincing panels of arbitrators).
5 – If Ellsbury signs an extension – the Red Sox would like to lock him up – the discussion shifts once again, since the sides would have to value multiple future seasons instead of just one. It’s early but MLBTR projects that Ellsbury's salary could rise as high as $13MM in 2013, his last year before hitting the open market.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI. Matt Swartz contributed analysis to this post.
AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Orioles, Youkilis
Links from the AL East, on a night that the Rays are taking on the Orioles and rooting hard for the Blue Jays to defeat the Red Sox. The latest links from their division…
- The Blue Jays and Orioles aren’t in the pennant race, but there’s lots of intrigue in Toronto and Baltimore as the season winds down, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes.
- Within the piece (which is well worth your time) Kepner notes that the Blue Jays plan to offer arbitration to Kelly Johnson after the season and hears that Jeremy Guthrie would like to pitch 1,000 more Major League innings.
- Johnson, who has a .210/.290/.408 line in 555 plate appearances with the D'Backs and Blue Jays, projects as a Type A free agent in the American League, according to our latest rankings. I won't be surprised if he accepts arbitration, but there are no guarantees for the Blue Jays since this year's class of free agent second basemen isn't strong.
- Kevin Youkilis of the Red Sox will play out the 2011 season and will likely undergo offseason surgery for a hernia, as Alex Speier writes at WEEI.com.
Red Sox Designate Nate Spears For Assignment
The Red Sox announced that they designated Nate Spears for assignment to create 40-man roster space for Joey Gathright and Trever Miller. They transferred J.D. Drew to the 60-day disabled list in a corresponding move.
Spears, 26, appeared in three games for the Red Sox this season, but spent most of the season at Triple-A. He posted a .248/.355/.397 line at Pawtucket, where he played all four infield positions and both corner outfield positions. The Orioles selected the left-handed hitter in the fifth round of the 2003 draft.
Quick Hits: McCutchen, Upton, Cameron
15 years ago today, the Mariners' acquisition of third baseman Dave Hollins was completed when they sent a 20-year-old first baseman named David Ortiz Arias to the Twins. Arias had just hit .322/.390/.511 for the Low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. By the following year Ortiz had dropped the Arias in his name and earned a September call-up. Ortiz posted a .266/.348/.461 line in 455 games spanning 1997-2002 with Minnesota, battling wrist and knee injuries. After the '02 season the Blue Jays reportedly expressed interest in Ortiz, but ultimately the Twins non-tendered him in lieu of a raise from his $950K salary. New Red Sox GM Theo Epstein signed Big Papi for $1.25MM, and the rest is history. Today's links…
- The Pirates are far apart in contract talks with Andrew McCutchen, reports ESPN's Jim Bowden. Bowden feels that a six-year deal in the $47-49MM range, plus a club option, would be a fair compromise. In my opinion, there's a good case to be made for a McCutchen contract to exceed the $51.25MM Justin Upton received over six years in March of 2010. McCutchen has played in over 100 more games than Upton had at that point, their offensive lines are very similar, and McCutchen plays center field.
- ESPN's Keith Law discusses MLB's European presence and what must be done for further growth.
- Answering a question from Craig Heist of WTOP about playing in Washington, Rays center fielder B.J. Upton said he'd love to remain in Tampa Bay but otherwise would like to play for the Nationals with old friend Ryan Zimmerman. You can follow Craig on Twitter here; MLB.com's Bill Ladson transcribed the discussion. Upton is heading into his last arbitration year and projects for a $7MM salary.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo names 20 young, next generation GM candidates. To check out MLBTR's top 20 plus honorable mentions, click here.
- Mike Cameron was consistently one of the best players in baseball when he was on the field, writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.
- The Orioles will try Chris Davis at third base for the rest of the season, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. The 25-year-old was a key piece of the July 30th Koji Uehara trade with Texas. With Mark Reynolds getting comfortable at first base, it's conceivable that the Orioles will sit out the corner infielder bidding this winter.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports chronicles how Joey Gathright went from being managed by Jose Canseco as a member of the independent league Yuma Scorpions to a minor league deal with the Red Sox.