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MLBTR Poll: Superstars For Sale?

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ESPN scribe Jeff Passan floated a very interesting tidbit in his latest column Wednesday: There’s a belief among rival executives that the Red Sox, Indians and Cubs will at least be willing to listen to trade offers for their franchise players during the upcoming winter. That means any of Boston’s Mookie Betts, Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor or Chicago’s Kris Bryant could change hands once the offseason rolls around. It’s far from a guarantee anyone from the group will wind up on the move, but the idea that they might should make hot stove season all the more interesting.

The only member of the trio with fewer than two years of team control remaining is Betts, who will enter his final season of arbitration eligibility over the winter. The 26-year-old right fielder is just a season removed from earning AL MVP honors, which helped him land a historic $20MM payday to avoid arbitration last winter. The 2019 version of Betts hasn’t been as stellar as the MVP-winning player, but that’s not a knock on his performance this season so much as a compliment to what he did a year ago, when he amassed an eyebrow-raising 10.4 fWAR. Betts is up to 4.8 in that category this year, having slashed a strong .282/.384/.494 with 21 home runs and 13 stolen bases across 622 plate appearances.

Just a year from winning their latest World Series title, why would the Red Sox possibly move Betts? They’re unlikely to make the playoffs this year, though a trip back to the postseason in 2020 hardly looks out of the question. However, Betts has indicated on multiple occasions that he’d like to test free agency after next season, when he could reel in one of the all-time richest contracts in the sport. For the Red Sox, trading Betts a year before a potential journey to the open market would help the club replenish its farm system to some degree. The Red Sox only came in 22nd place in Baseball America’s most recent talent rankings.

The Indians, on the other hand, boast the game’s 10th-best system, though they’re incapable of spending to the extent the Red Sox can. That means Lindor is quite likely to end up elsewhere in the coming years. Mr. Smile will be a free agent after 2021, but it would behoove the Indians to get something for him prior to then. In the meantime, the 25-year-old Lindor is sure to collect a notable raise over his current $10.55MM salary when he reaches arbitration for the penultimate time during the offseason. Lindor perhaps hasn’t been quite as great as he was in 2018, a career-high 7.6-fWAR campaign, but his 4.3 mark and .300/.353/.532 line with 24 homers and 19 steals through 522 PA are mighty impressive nonetheless. Needless to say, teams will line up for the elite shortstop if small-market Cleveland goes with the agonizing decision to make him available in the coming months.

And then there’s Bryant, yet another former MVP. The Boras client joins Lindor as another all-world performer who’s slated for his second-last trip through arbitration in a few months. Bryant, 27, is well on his way to another raise (he’s currently on a $12.9MM salary), having batted .282/.379/.521 and smashed 29 dingers over 552 trips to the plate. Whether the Cubs would truly consider parting with Bryant is up in the air, but they are amid their second somewhat disappointing season (albeit one that looks as if it will culminate in yet another playoff berth), and waving goodbye to the third baseman/outfielder would go a long way toward aiding them in bolstering their system. It’s definitely a below-average group, according to BA, which places it 29th in baseball.

We’re still a couple months from the offseason rearing its head, but if anyone from this trio hits the block, it should make for an incredibly interesting winter of rumors. Do you expect any of them to actually change teams after the season?

(Poll link for app users)

Looking At Brock Holt's Free Agent Case

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  • Super-utilityman Brock Holt is enjoying the best season of his eight-year career, leaving MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo to wonder if the Red Sox will be able to affordably re-sign Holt in free agency this offseason.  Despite missing over seven weeks due to shoulder and eye injuries, Holt has hit .320/.393/.455 over 206 plate appearances, playing mostly as a second baseman to help the Sox fill the void left by the injured Dustin Pedroia.  Cotillo thinks the 31-year-old could find a three-year deal worth $27MM-$30MM on the open market, though “that might take a market rebound and some teams rewarding Holt for trending upward this season.”  While Boston has a lot of money coming off the books this winter, the club still has roughly $159.35MM in projected salary commitments (as per Roster Resource) and that’s not counting big raises due to arbitration-eligible players like Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. Andrew Benintendi, or Eduardo Rodriguez.  The Red Sox have Marco Hernandez on hand as a possible heir apparent utility infielder, should they choose to let Holt go and spend elsewhere.  For his part, Holt stated last spring that he “would love to stay here for the rest of my career.”

Can The Red Sox Mount A Late-Season Comeback?

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It has been presumed for some time that the World Series-champion Red Sox were sunk in their quest for a repeat. While the club has easily kept its head above water, it has struggled to bag enough victories in a highly stratified American League.

An eight-game losing streak wrapping the trade deadline — at which Boston held pat — sent the club’s chances plummeting. By August 21st, Fangraphs’ playoff odds tracker gave the Sox a meager 1.8% chance of making the postseason.

But here’s the thing about postseason odds charts: they make for useful, rough gauges as to where a team stands at a given moment. But they can’t and don’t reflect all the nuanced factors that can influence performance swings. And the odds are based upon simulations of how the remainder of the season can play out. Thus, they necessarily change as actual results come in, and can change rather significantly in fairly short periods of time.

(The Red Sox suffered a drop of nearly fifty percentage points from July 27th through August 4th. The Mets did nearly the opposite from July 24th through August 10th — only to quickly shed many of the “gains” with a recent skid.)

With just a month of the season remaining, there are less plausible scenarios. But several of them certainly involve the Red Sox continuing to play once the regular season concludes.

After an 8-3 stretch of play — coupled with middling periods from the Rays and Indians — the BoSox have shot back up to a 9.8% chance by reckoning of the Fangraphs computers. Other systems are less optimistic: 538 puts it at 7%, Baseball-Reference at just 3.1%. But these systems are telling us the same essential thing: there’s a chance, and not just in the Lloyd Christmas sense.

The Indians just lost Jose Ramirez and are still missing some key pitchers, as are the Rays. The Athletics seem to be cresting, but who’s to say the rotation can keep outperforming ERA estimators by such a wide margin? (4.02 ERA; 4.87 xFIP; 4.94 SIERA.) Or that the Red Sox’ opposite fortunes won’t suddenly reverse? (5.02 ERA; 4.44 xFIP; 4.41 SIERA.) David Price is slated for a return, with Michael Chavis perhaps not far behind him. Boston relievers have reversed their fortunes over the past month, perhaps portending good things for high-leverage situations.

Gut out a few extra wins, and those postseason odds will keep lurching forward. Gain some momentum, and perhaps the goal will feel — and even actually be — more attainable than the numbers would suggest. This team has been there before, so there’s no questioning the capacity. And it’s arguably the best of the AL Wild Card contenders from a true-talent perspective.

That’s the argument in favor of a stirring comeback, anyway. But what do you think? Do you agree with the computer simulations, or do you believe the Red Sox will mount a successful charge? (Poll link for app users.)

Red Sox To Activate David Price On Sunday

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The Red Sox will activate left-hander David Price from the injured list to start against the Angels on Sunday, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. Meanwhile, lefty Brian Johnson will finish the year in Boston’s bullpen, according to Abraham.

Price went to the shelf with a cyst in his wrist back on Aug. 8, which came on the heels of a rough few starts. The 34-year-old owned a 3.16 ERA as of July 16, but the number shot to 4.36 in the handful of outings preceding his IL placement. A significant portion of the damage came in Price’s most recent appearance, in which the rival Yankees clobbered him for seven earned runs on nine hits (including a pair of homers) in 2 2/3 innings.

Recent struggles notwithstanding, the Red Sox will be glad to get back Price, who’s in the fourth season of a seven-year, $217MM investment. For the most part, Price has been a decent contributor this season, evidenced by a 3.63 FIP/3.67 xFIP/3.82 SIERA with 10.77 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9 in 105 1/3 innings. And the rest of the Red Sox’s starting staff isn’t in particularly great shape, which helps explain why the defending champions are 5 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Injured ace Chris Sale is probably done for the year, former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello has been a letdown, and big-money offseason re-signing Nathan Eovaldi has both underperformed and dealt with significant elbow problems.

Thanks in part to the myriad issues in their rotation, the Red Sox have had to give seven starts to Johnson, who hasn’t produced appealing results during an injury- and illness- shortened campaign. The 28-year-old has logged a 5.09 ERA/5.03 FIP with 5.87 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 out of Boston’s rotation.

David Price Nearing Return

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  • Red Sox southpaw David Price “believes” he’ll come off the IL to rejoin this weekend in Anaheim, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes. A TFCC cyst in Price’s left wrist has kept him from pitching in the majors since Aug. 4, which was a particularly forgettable start for the 34-year-old. Price gave up seven earned in 2 2/3 innings against the Yankees then, raising his 2019 ERA from 3.86 to 4.36 in one fell swoop. The hurler’s other numbers are much better, however, as he owns a 3.64 FIP with 10.77 K/9 and 2.65 BB/9 across 105 1/3 innings.

Latest On Dustin Pedroia

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Rehabbing Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia seems to be in good spirits after his latest knee procedure. As Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports, the veteran reports that “things are going really good compared to where I was before the surgery.”

It’s only two weeks out, but that seems generally to be a promising development for a player whose future remains quite uncertain. As Bradford notes, it’s still not clear just how Pedroia will proceed with rehab work — if he does so at all — after several prior attempts at a return have been stymied.

Pedroia, who recently turned 36, is owed $25MM over the next two seasons. While the Boston organization would no doubt welcome a contribution from the long-time star, it’s hard to imagine the club will rely upon a return as it compiles a plan for the offseason.

Since undergoing season-ending surgery in 2017, Pedroia has appeared in just nine MLB contests. But he was still in good form prior to the onset of the physical ailments. From 2015 through 2017, he compiled a .304/.369/.430 batting line in 1,586 plate appearances.

Regardless of how Pedroia proceeds, it’ll be interesting to see how the Red Sox handle the second base position this winter. Brock Holt and Michael Chavis have spent much of the time there in 2019, but the former is a free agent and the latter is arguably better-suited to playing first base.

How The BoSox Found Bogaerts

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  • Xander Bogaerts (and his twin brother Jair) signed with the Red Sox on August 23, 2009, and in commemoration of a decade passing since that key signing, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe looked back at the circumstances that led the Sox to the superstar shortstop.  The team was only starting to expand its developmental base in the Caribbean, and it was when scout Mike Lord held Boston’s first workout in Aruba that Lord met Jair, only to learn that this impressive young prospect’s brother was an even better player.  Since Xander was absent from the tryout due to chicken pox, Lord arranged for a later private workout, and a film of Xander’s session quickly impressed Boston’s front office.  A handshake deal was reached to sign both twins within the week, and though teams like the Yankees, Mariners, Braves, Astros, and Reds all tried to top Boston’s offer, the Bogaerts brothers stuck to their initial agreement with the Red Sox.  The rest is history, as Xander has emerged as one of the game’s best players.

Andrew Benintendi Leaves Game With Side Tightness

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  • Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi left last night’s game against the Padres in the sixth inning with left side tightness, as relayed by Chris Cotillo of Mass Live. For now, he remains day-to-day, with manager Alex Cora telling Cotillo he’ll be evaluated on Monday’s off day. Benintendi won’t be available today, per Cora, although he was due for a maintenance day regardless, the skipper noted. The University of Arkansas product hasn’t quite emerged as the superstar many envisioned when he was one of baseball’s top prospects, but he’s no doubt a valuable and important piece of Boston’s outfield mix, boasting a solid .283/.357/.462 slash line (112 wRC+). The Sox have won seven of their last ten games, but as Rob Bradford of WEEI points out, they haven’t made up much ground in their pursuit of a Wild Card spot in recent weeks. Fangraphs gives the defending champions just a 6.4% shot of getting to the play-in game, and any long-term absence for Benintendi would only deplete those odds further. Fortunately, the club is optimistic at this point he’ll return Tuesday for the start of a series against the Rockies, per Cotillo.

Latest On Steve Pearce, Steven Wright, Heath Hembree

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Injured Red Sox first baseman Steve Pearce and knuckleballer Steven Wright have barely been factors this season, which now looks likely to go down as a lost year for both players. It’s “doubtful” either will take the field again in 2019, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com.

It’s hard to believe 2019 has been so dreadful for Pearce, one of the main heroes of the Red Sox’s championship run a year ago. The midseason trade acquisition was an offensive force with two teams (Boston and Toronto) during the regular season and continued his torrid pace in the playoffs, earning World Series MVP honors for the Red Sox’s five-game triumph against the Dodgers.

As great as Pearce was in 2018, he only appeared in 76 games then. This season, thanks largely to a lower back strain that has shelved him since May 31, Pearce has played in a mere 29 contests. When he has entered the batters box, the once-potent Pearce has slashed a miserable .180/.245/.258 with one home run and a microscopic .079 ISO in 99 plate appearances. That obviously isn’t what the Red Sox had in mind when they re-signed Pearce to a $6.25MM guarantee last November. Considering his meager production since inking that deal, free agency certainly won’t be as kind to the 36-year-old Pearce during the upcoming offseason.

The Red Sox can still control Wright next year, his last season of arbitration eligibility, but he has joined Pearce in enduring a nightmarish campaign. Wright began the year serving an 80-game suspension after a failed PED test, thus keeping him from debuting until late June, and then went on the IL in mid-July with a right foot contusion. The 34-year-old right-hander – a former All-Star – has thrown 6 1/3 innings this season and allowed six earned runs on 11 hits (including three home runs) and four walks.

In better news for Boston, there’s a “good chance” righty reliever Heath Hembree will pitch again this season, manager Alex Cora told Cotillo. Hembree went down with an elbow strain Aug. 2 – the second time the joint forced him to the IL in 2019. The elbow problems have helped lead to middling results for Hembree, he of the 4.06 ERA/4.91 FIP with 10.75 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a paltry 21.8 percent groundball rate in 37 2/3 innings.

Red Sox Notes: Price, Chavis

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Left-hander David Price had been a candidate to come off the injured list and start for the Red Sox on Sunday, but that won’t happen, Scott Miller of Bleacher Report was among those to report. Price, out since Aug. 8 with a left wrist problem, is instead another several days from returning. He’ll throw a 55-pitch simulated game Tuesday, after which the Red Sox will decide a next course of action, according to manager Alex Cora. That’s unfortunate news for Boston, which is a potentially insurmountable seven games back of the American League’s last wild-card spot and whose rotation has been an issue throughout the season. Price didn’t help the Red Sox’s cause in his most recent starts, as his ERA skyrocketed from 3.16 on July 14 to 4.36 after the last time he took the ball. But the 33-year-old has still been among the club’s most effective starters this season. His K/BB ratio (4.06) ranks 26th out of 103 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings in 2019.

  • Red Sox infielder Michael Chavis started a rehab assignment Friday, according to the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Pawtucket. Chavis went to the IL on Aug. 12 with an AC joint sprain in his left shoulder, continuing what has been a rough month for the 24-year-old. While Chavis was amid a slump when he landed on the shelf, he has enjoyed a respectable rookie year overall. Chavis has batted .254/.322/.444 with 18 home runs in 382 plate appearances and 95 games, during which he has split time between first and second base.
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