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Market Notes: Wieters, Morneau, Twins, Freese, Astros

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Now that it’s November 7th, on the east coast at least, free agency has officially begun. Qualifying offers (twenty of them) and option decisions marked the final key elements to set up the market. Here are a few notable reports as business opens:

  • The Braves will not pursue catcher Matt Wieters, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com tweets. Atlanta has appeared at least to be a plausible landing spot, depending perhaps on what they decide with youngster Christian Bethancourt, but Gammons’ sources certainly make that possibility seem unlikely. Wieters received a qualifying offer today, so a signing team would need to sacrifice a draft pick to add him, though Atlanta’s top choice is protected.
  • First baseman Justin Morneau is not entertaining thoughts of retiring and “definitely” wants to keep playing, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports on Twitter. That had always seemed to be the case, since Morneau worked back from his latest head and neck issues just for a few weeks at the end of the year. The 34-year-old has looked good at the plate over the last two years and should draw plenty of interest — particularly from American League clubs.
  • We’ve also heard some chatter that Morneau and the Twins could have mutual interest in a reunion, though Joe Mauer is entrenched at first. Morneau could theoretically slot in as the DH, but the club needs to find a way to get Miguel Sano into the lineup and still has the solid Trevor Plouffe at third. It’s possible, Berardino writes, that Sano could begin spending some time in the outfield in winter ball in an effort to open the possibility of him getting action there next season. Of course, the team’s handling of Sano and Plouffe likely won’t be dictated by the veteran Morneau, but it’s obviously intriguing to consider the possibilities.
  • Though the Angels did not extend a qualifying offer to third baseman David Freese, new GM Billy Eppler said that the team will at least look into a return, as MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports. “We’ll engage him in the marketplace,” said Eppler. “We love what he brings on the field and in the clubhouse.”
  • While the Astros have proven willing to act boldly to improve their major league roster, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle writes that it could be a relatively quiet offseason for the club. “With the exception of lefthanded relievers, there’s nothing I’d say we absolutely have to do,” explained GM Jeff Luhnow. “There’s a lot we want to do,” he added, perhaps suggesting that the organization might pursue some creative opportunities without feeling much urgency.

NL East Notes: Toscano, Granderson, Molina, Alvarez, Marlins, Klentak

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Braves outfielder Dian Toscano has finally been cleared to join the organization, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports on Twitter. The Cuban had yet to receive full clearance from the government since signing last winter. (It’s never been entirely clear what the reason was for the hold-up.) Atlanta committed $6MM to Toscano over four years in hopes that he could develop into a reserve/platoon-type outfielder. He might see some winter ball action as he looks to get up to speed, O’Brien notes.

Here’s more from the NL East:

  • Mets outfielder Curtis Granderson required surgery on his left thumb for a torn ligament, as Rubin reports. That may come as a surprise to those who watched Granderson perform well in the NLCS and World Series. He reportedly suffered the injury during the third game of the championship round. The 34-year-old had a highly productive all-around season, serving as a somewhat underappreciated element in the team’s successful campaign.
  • In less promising Mets injury news, right-handed pitching prospect Marcos Molina underwent Tommy John surgery after the season, Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports on Twitter. Both Baseball America and MLB.com rate Molina the club’s sixth-best overall prospect at present, though he’ll obviously have some work to do to regain his standing now that he’ll miss all of 2016.
  • Marlins righty Henderson Alvarez is expected to begin a throwing program on the first of December, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. If he can maintain the timeline that the organization has charted, Alvarez could return to action within the first month of the season, according to Passan.  Alvarez had shoulder surgery this summer and is projected by MLBTR to earn $4MM in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility.
  • As they wait to see how Alvarez progresses, the Marlins will work to increase the organization’s financial flexibility, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. On the revenue side, Miami is hoping to find a corporate sponsor to put its name on the side of Marlins Park and also to get a new TV deal in place.
  • The Marlins acknowledge that they haven’t done the best job of putting their payroll to use in building around their young core in recent years, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Pitching is the major need, according to president David Samson, who says he feels the organization has “three of the top ten players in baseball” — referring to Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Fernandez, and Dee Gordon. Per Jackson, Miami would go up to $15MM a year on the right starting pitcher, though the team is more likely to spend in the $12MM to $15MM range. (He calls Yovani Gallardo an “interesting option in the high end of that range.”) Of course, trades are also possible, and Marcell Ozuna appears to represent a big chip with the organization seemingly unconvinced that he’s a piece worth keeping. Miami is chasing two pitchers, says Jackson, one of whom could come from a deal involving Ozuna.
  • New Phillies GM Matt Klentak said that he’s getting acclimated with the organization’s still-new information system, “PHIL,” as Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. That system is a key part of the club’s efforts to advance its modern analytical capabilities. “Basically it’s a place to house all of our information and synthesize it and try to manage it and pool it and bring all together,” Klentak said. “That’s what PHIL will provide. I’m new to it. I was not involved in the design of it, but I’m getting more and more familiar with it. We’re making some tweaks to it to make sure it suits what we’re looking to do and what we’re hoping to achieve. It’s close to its official launch.”
  • Klentak is still settling into his new digs, but says he’s gotten a lot done already as he prepares for the upcoming GM Meetings, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. Generally, he says, the club will be looking to continue building its talent base over the winter. “We really want to raise the floor and add some depth,” Klentak said. “Kind of at every turn, that’s what we’re going to be focused on. And in the pitching department, I think we really need to work on just — again, I say raise the floor — but kind of establish sort of a firm foundation of pitching. That’s not going to end when we break camp at the end of Spring Training. That’s something we’re going to be committed to for a long time.” He continued to reiterate that he views free agency as a way to “augment or supplement” a contending team more than a means to building a core.
  • Be sure to check out MLBTR’s offseason outlook for the Phils for more on the opportunities and challenges facing Klentak and co. (I’ve also written a Braves outlook and am working my way through the rest of the NL East.)

Braves Likely To Transition Hector Olivera To Outfield

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The Braves appear to be in the process of shifting Hector Olivera from third base to the outfield. We had heard recently that Olivera would spend some time in left in winter ball, though indications were that it was not intended as any kind of permanent move.

Now, it appears, Atlanta is set to embark upon a more dedicated transition process, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. The Braves do indeed “seem ready to shift” Olivera to the grass after intensive internal discussion, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution adds (Twitter links). He says that Olivera will still spend some time at third in Puerto Rico, but will be playing there “just in case.”

Needless to say, it probably wasn’t the club’s first choice to be considering this kind of move so soon after adding Olivera. Atlanta plugged him in at third after acquiring him over the summer from the Dodgers. The hope had been that Olivera would represent a solid hitter and reasonable-enough defender who could hold down the hot corner at a low price point ($32.5MM over the next five years).

That’s not to say that Olivera can’t still deliver value. The team has consistently expressed confidence that he’ll come around with the bat, and he put up a roughly league-average .253/.310/.405 batting line in his first 87 plate appearances in the majors. If the 30-year-old can settle in at the dish, he might well turn into a solid regular.

That still leaves the team with the somewhat difficult task of filling in at third base, if in fact Olivera will end up in left field. The Braves can utilize Adonis Garcia, as the 30-year-old rookie did have a nice (albeit unlikely to be repeated) campaign last year, but he hardly seems an everyday player. Atlanta does have some notable prospects at the position in Rio Ruiz, 21, who reached (but did not master) Double-A last year, and the younger Austin Riley. But there’s no chance that they’ll represent an option this spring, and their developmental timelines remain uncertain. This year’s free agent market is rather weak, with players like Daniel Murphy (if he’s considered there, rather than at second), David Freese, and Juan Uribe representing the best options.

As I wrote yesterday in breaking down the Braves’ offseason, the Braves have more options — both internal and external — for the outfield. It’s also worth noting that some may now end up being pushed out. Nick Swisher could be a prime candidate — and I’d guess the team would part with him before Michael Bourn, given that the latter can play center — though he clearly has negative trade value.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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After undergoing a fairly extensive tear-down last winter, the Braves will look to begin rebuilding toward a return to contention in 2017, when they are set to open a new park.

Guaranteed Contracts

*Indians will pay $10MM of the collective obligations to Swisher and Bourn in 2016

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

Things got ugly in the second half for the club, which all but collapsed down the stretch. In addition to the sales of a few last short-term veterans, the Braves’ summer featured a bad contract swap of Chris Johnson for Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn and — more importantly — the acquisition of Hector Olivera in a deal that sent lefty Alex Wood and prospect Jose Peraza to the Dodgers (among other pieces changing hands). That made for a less-than-ideal 2015 product, but that wasn’t really the point.

We may have been given a hint at the Braves’ endgame when the club parted with the controllable Wood for an unproven, somewhat older player in Olivera. Having spent the winter accumulating as many upper-level young arms as it could via trade, Atlanta gave one up for the chance at five fairly cheap years of Olivera. That move suggests that Atlanta already sees a light at the end of the tunnel of its quick rebuild. After all, Wood certainly could’ve brought back youthful prospects instead.

With a newly resurgent farm system and at least the nucleus of a core in place, the Braves are probably ready to begin adding at the major league level. But having parted with so much MLB-level talent in the last year or so, it’s unlikely that the organization really expects contention in 2016. Instead, the focus will be on 2017 and beyond.

So, what might the club look to do this winter under the leadership of newly-promoted GM John Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart? Let’s start with the possibility of further swaps, as it’s hard to rule anything out after Atlanta was willing to part with its long-term control over Evan Gattis and Craig Kimbrel last offseason.

It would take something awfully compelling for the Braves to consider moving Freddie Freeman or Andrelton Simmons, the pair of young infielders who figure to bridge the team’s most recent contender to its (hopeful) future outfit. Frankly, the possibility seems too remote to seriously consider as something that’s on the table.

Righty Julio Teheran, though, has generated more chatter. He’s taken a value hit after an uninspiring 2015, but he’s cheap, young (still 24), and durable (607 1/3 innings since the start of 2013). It’s hard to know how interested Atlanta is in parting with him, but the ask would surely be high in spite of his difficulties.

After all, while the Braves have compiled an impressive volume of young arms, few have established themselves in the big leagues. It would be risky to move on from Teheran, especially after having already sent out Wood. Shelby Miller had a strong season and looks like a great get from the Jason Heyward/Jordan Walden deal. (An extension with Miller could be pursued, at least to buy up his arb-eligible seasons.) The other key piece in that swap, Tyrell Jenkins, is one of several younger arms who’ll look to crack (or stay in) the big league staff in the coming years. Matt Wisler, Mike Foltynewicz, and Manny Banuelos are also recent trade additions in that general mold, and top prospect Lucas Sims is coming up behind that group. Further off are interesting names like Touki Toussaint, Kolby Allard, and Max Fried, among others.

Rounding out the 2016 rotation will involve a mix of depth pieces like Williams Perez and Ryan Weber and, perhaps, a veteran acquisition or two. The club has indicated it will tender a contract to lefty Mike Minor in hopes that he can reestablish himself after a tough run of injuries, but he’ll be hard to count on.

It’s possible to imagine Atlanta adding a mid or long-term arm on the free agent market, though it seems more likely that the club will look to bail out an undervalued asset than to beat the market for a top-end hurler. It wouldn’t be too hard to imagine this opportunistic front office pouncing if someone like Jeff Samardzija or Ian Kennedy find demand lacking, though I’d expect they will value the loss of a draft pick quite highly in weighing such decisions. While Atlanta’s #3 overall selection is protected, the team will probably like the idea of preserving an additional early draft slot (and the pool money that comes with it). Otherwise, there’s certainly some merit to the idea of utilizing the team’s unclaimed rotation spots to draw a pitcher (Doug Fister being the popular, but potentially too pricey, example) who could be looking for a one-year bounce-back deal. And Atlanta should be a popular destination for minor league free agents seeking a chance to prove themselves in the spring.

There’s even more uncertainty in the bullpen, where Arodys Vizcaino reemerged to have a nice year and take over as the closer. After him, though, the team’s most-used and most effective pen arms were traded (Jim Johnson, Luis Avilan) or hurt (Jason Grilli). The team still controls Grilli for two more years (the second via option) and could put him back in the ninth when he returns from injury, both to boost his trade stock and to tamp down Vizcaino’s arb platform. Rule 5 pick Daniel Winkler will need a roster spot to open the year in order for the team to earn his permanent rights, while another Rule 5 selection — Andrew McKirahan — could provide a left-handed option. Unfortunately, southpaw Paco Rodriguez — who was acquired from the Dodgers — is going to be out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but Chris Withrow — another Los Angeles import (separate trade) — could be ready and provides some interest. Veteran Peter Moylan could be brought back, and the club can also get some frames out of Brandon Cunniff, who logged the most relief innings last year of any returning pitcher in the organization.

There are a number of other names that could be in the mix, but none seem particularly worth mentioning. Atlanta took advantage of the fact that it had late-inning opportunities to offer last year when it signed Grilli and Johnson, and it could do so again. The club will also just be looking to get innings wherever it can. Last year’s roster ultimately included a veritable who’s who of once-quality pitchers who were looking for big league chances. But there’s also quite a realistic scenario where the Braves make a real investment in a reliever or two via free agency, as the team’s front office has hinted in recent weeks.

Moving back to the position player side of the equation, the infield seems largely set — potentially. Simmons, Freeman, and Olivera will take three spots. Third base prospect Rio Ruiz, who didn’t exactly master Double-A but spent the year there at 21 years of age, could eventually push Olivera off of the hot corner. That would open new questions and new possibilities, but there are some more immediate issues to be addressed.

Jace Peterson probably warrants another audition at second, though he’ll need to improve on a .239/.314/.335 batting effort. It’s possible — perhaps likely — that the team will look to supplement him with a veteran. The team signed Alberto Callaspo and Kelly Johnson as role-playing depth pieces last year, and figures to do something similar this winter. Top prospect Ozhaino Albies may ultimately be an appealing option up the middle, but he’s just 18 and is further off away than was the traded-away Jose Peraza.

Its certainly possible that the organization will consider adding a more significant infield piece this winter. That’s all the more true given reports that Olivera will spend some time in Puerto Rico playing the corner outfield. There are several free agents who might function as bridge players — Howie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy among them — and a variety of hypothetical trade candidates.

The club faces more questions behind the dish, where Christian Bethancourt remains an intriguing but frustrating player. He played only sporadically in the majors, endured a mid-season demotion (though he hit well at Triple-A), and drew questions about his mental approach. In a mid-season interview, Hart explained that he liked the young backstop’s tools, but felt that he was failing to grasp what it took to be a big league catcher. The issue was “not dedication,” said Hart. Instead: “It’s a level of preparedness you need for what [pitching coach] Roger [McDowell] expects and a championship organization expects, especially when dealing with young pitchers.” It’s possible that Atlanta will entertain change-of-scenery offers, though he seems more likely to get another chance. Last year’s primary backstop ended up being veteran A.J. Pierzynski. He remains a candidate to return, particularly after the club resisted the urge to trade him at the deadline, though he’ll test the market first. Otherwise, another elder statesman might be found. The Braves have been mentioned as a hypothetical suitor for Matt Wieters, who attended Georgia Tech, and he certainly could be the sort of (relative) buy-low that the organization would find intriguing. But it’s not yet clear whether Atlanta will be a leading contender for his services, especially since he’ll likely require a signing team to sacrifice a draft pick.

In the outfield, Nick Markakis — last year’s surprise free agent splurge — will handle right. Cameron Maybin figures to see the bulk of the action in center — barring a trade, at least. He was a nice comeback surprise after being included as part of the salary balancing in the Craig Kimbrel deal. Though his production tailed off late, he ended up with a .267/.327/.370 batting line to go with 23 steals and ten home runs. On the other hand, defensive metrics hated his glovework despite historical success.

While there would have to be interest if an appealing offer came in, the club is probably best off sticking with Maybin for the time being. He isn’t too expensive, his option conveys a bit of upside, and he could turn into an even more valuable mid-season trade chip. Maybin is likely just keeping the seat warm for Mallex Smith, who earned a mid-season promotion to Triple-A in his age-22 campaign. He still needs to conquer that level, and is far from a surefire prospect, but a summer promotion could be in order if he does and if there’s a need at the major league level.

Of course, the Braves do have another option in center: the veteran Bourn, who came over in the aforementioned trade along with Swisher. Bourn could help bridge the gap as well. Neither of those players produced last year, and may not last the year if they falter. (Both have options for 2017 that vest at 550 plate appearances, and it’s hard to imagine a scenario where that is allowed to take place.) But they’ll do for the meanwhile, and the organization has another fourth outfield type on hand in Adonis Garcia (though he’s not a good bet to repeat his production).

Given that array of outfield options, it’s easy to dream on the team wading into the free agent market. It would be foolish to rule out such an effort, though it’d also be rather shocking to see any nine-figure deals handed out. As with the rotation, it’s possible to imagine the Braves seeing what the market will yield. That could come in the form of a one-year, bounceback signing or a multi-year pact with a mid-level free agent who falls through the cracks.

Entering the winter, there’s an argument to be made that Atlanta should be increasingly aggressive in free agency (after having already shown just that trait on the trade market). After all, if the team hopes to be prepared for legitimate contention in 2017, this robust free agent market might present the right moment to strike.

Having demonstrated a willingness to spend on the mid-tier market last year, in signing Markakis, players his price range certainly seem in play. Costlier additions, though, may not be forthcoming. There’s some open current and future payroll, but not a lot: the club has just under $75MM in commitments for 2016 before accounting for arbitration, and that number drops into the $50MM to $60MM range over the four seasons to follow. Even with the promise of new stadium and TV revenue, it would be dangerous to tie up too much future payroll for an organization that has started a season with a payroll over $100MM only once (2014).

All told, the offseason promises more of the same creativity out of Atlanta, albeit with a nearer-term focus. And we can’t discount the possibility of a big surprise out of this creative front office duo.

East Notes: Anthopoulos, Wieters, Nationals, Chen

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Blue Jays chairman Edward Rogers says the team made a serious effort to keep now-departed GM Alex Anthopoulos, and that Anthopoulos’ role with the team would not have been significantly different following the arrival of new president Mark Shapiro, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes. “[J]ust reading a lot of the press, there was a notion that in his renewal offer, somehow his job had changed. His job had not changed at all,” says Rogers. “His direct manager will change, but his breadth of scope and responsibility had not changed. We had full confidence in him.” Rogers notes that the Jays tried to reassure Anthopoulos about their change in leadership by offering him a long-term extension but allowing him to depart after a year if he wanted. “Our notion was let’s try it for a year and see if that would have worked,” Rogers says. Reporting earlier this week indicated that the Jays had promised to give Shapiro final decision-making authority in decisions about player acquisitions and departures. Here’s more from the East divisions.

  • The Nationals have been linked to free agent Matt Wieters, but a source tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko that the team is not interested in signing him. Incumbent Nats catcher Wilson Ramos is coming off a miserable .229/.258/.358 season, Wieters’ agent Scott Boras has plenty of Nationals clients, and the catching market is thin, but it sounds like the Nats could look elsewhere to address the position. Kubatko notes that the Braves are a more logical destination for Wieters, who has a residence in the Atlanta area.
  • It would make sense for the Orioles to pursue a reunion with free agent starter Wei-Yin Chen, but that doesn’t mean they’ll actually be able to re-sign him, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes. Chen has been effective, and the Orioles need pitching and likely won’t pursue the very top free agents. The 30-year-old Chen will likely get a five-year deal, however, and the O’s will likely be reluctant to make a commitment of that length. There’s a good chance Chen will end up with a West Coast team.

East Notes: Jennings, Olivera, Jays GM, Red Sox

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As he departs the Marlins, Dan Jennings issued a statement thanking the team (via MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro). He indicated that the club called him yesterday to tell him he “was being relieved” from his general manager duties, calling that move “sad and regrettable” but expressing that he respected the decision and would look back on his time in Miami with fondness. Jennings is said to be receiving strong interest from other clubs around baseball now that he’s a free agent.

Here’s more form the east:

  • Recent Braves acquisition Hector Olivera is expected to spend time at both third base and left field in the Puerto Rican winter league, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. The organization hopes to add to Olivera’s defensive capabilities while getting an idea of “what their needs might be over the next few years,” says Bowman. Atlanta would surely prefer to feel comfortable putting Olivera in either spot, as it would open up ample flexibility in the club’s developmental and acquisition plans.
  • It’s still a bit early to get a read on what the Blue Jays will do to replace Alex Anthopoulos in their general manager’s role, but Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports that president Mark Shapiro does intend to hire a day-to-day GM while holding onto final decisionmaking authority. He will also be able to hire away at least one or two front office members from the Indians if he wishes, so long as the hirings are promotions. Morosi tosses out a few hypothetical matches. Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star did the same last night.
  • Clubs around baseball are gearing up to talk trades with new Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Dombrowski has shown a willingness both to promote young players aggressively and to ship them out in trades, and that makes for a fascinating pairing with the organization’s highly-regarded talent base.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/30/15

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Here are today’s minor moves from around the league…

  • The Braves have signed right-hander Chris Volstad to a minor league deal, tweets David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. They’ve also inked indy ball pitchers Bryan Morgado and Connor Little. Volstad, the most notable of the bunch, spent nearly all of the 2015 season with the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate, working to a 3.18 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 155 2/3 innings. The former first-round pick has a lifetime 4.92 ERA in 705 2/3 innings and was a mainstay in the Marlins’ rotation from 2009-11. As O’Brien notes in a second tweet, Baseball America ranked Little as the No. 8 prospect on the independent circuit this year.
  • Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that Twins catcher Eric Fryer has elected free agency after being outrighted by the club. Fryer, 30, batted .227/.370/.318 in 27 PAs for Minnesota this season and has a career .243/.329/.336 slash line in 158 big league PAs. The minor league veteran had a nice year at Triple-A Rochester, hitting .293/.367/.360 for the Twins’ top affiliate.

List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers

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Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.

Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.

It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.

That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

NL East Notes: Benedict, Braves, Mets

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The Marlins have hired Pirates special assistant Jim Benedict to become their new vice president, pitching development, as MLB.com’s Adam Berry notes. The news is more significant than it might initially seem — Benedict and Bucs pitching coach Ray Searage have been widely credited with powering the pitching program that helped the Pirates get good results from a number of unknown or unappreciated hurlers in the last several season. Benedict is the Marlins’ second significant hire from the Bucs’ front office this fall — they previously tabbed another special assistant, Marc DelPiano, to serve as their farm director. Here’s more from the NL East.

  • The Braves face plenty of uncertainty in their bullpen and will likely pursue relief help this offseason, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Arodys Vizcaino will pitch in the late innings, and Chris Withrow (elbow) will likely be ready as well. But Jason Grilli and Shae Simmons are both making their back from injury and will be question marks, while Mike Foltynewicz could wind up in the rotation. That means the Braves could be in the market for righties like Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, Tyler Clippard and Darren O’Day, along with lefties like Tony Sipp.
  • The Mets turned their season around as their lineup began to come together in late July, ESPN’s Jayson Stark writes. Obviously, much of that was their trade for Yoenis Cespedes, but manager Terry Collins also points to their additions of Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson, which happened a week earlier. “[T]hat, to me, is when we started turning things around,” Collins says. Uribe and Johnson helped somewhat, but it wasn’t just that — it was that it became clear within the clubhouse that the Mets’ front office was willing to supplement its team.
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