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14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT.  With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…

This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs.  Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.

These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer.  If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022.  They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team).  Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.

If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team.  Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold.  (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)

If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….

  • A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
  • A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
  • A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers.  This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1.  It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date.  In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.

With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout.  By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.

Free Agent Notes: Verlander, Schwarber, Heaney

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Justin Verlander will hold a showcase for scouts and evaluators tomorrow, The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli reports (Twitter links).  This is the first time Verlander will throw in front of evaluators from other teams since his Tommy John surgery in September 2020.  Multiple teams are expected to have personnel on hand, if just as a matter of simple due diligence rather than a clear interest in signing Verlander on the free agent market.  As WFAN’s Sweeny Murti observes, it probably safe to assume the Yankees will have personnel on hand — Verlander is throwing at a Cressey Sports Performance facility, and Eric Cressey is the Yankees’ director of player health and performance.

It stands to reason that Verlander will probably hold multiple showcases in order to prove that his arm has recovered from the TJ procedure, and that he’ll be ready to roll when Spring Training camps open.  The timing of a second showcase could be particularly important, however, since Verlander has until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the qualifying offer extended by the Astros today.  If Verlander throws well and gets some good buzz coming out of Monday’s session, it could make him lean against taking the one-year, $18.4MM offer to return to Houston, if he gets an indication that at least one other club is interested in making him a more lucrative multi-year deal on the open market.

More from the free agent market….

  • J.D. Martinez’s decision to pass on his opt-out clause will keep the veteran slugger in Boston for another season, though it doesn’t mean that free agent Kyle Schwarber is necessarily roadblocked from a return to the Red Sox.  Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier) that the Sox have already been in touch with Schwarber and will continue to monitor his market throughout the winter.  Martinez’s role as the regular DH and a fill-in outfielder might be the ideal spot for Schwarber, as while Schwarber did okay at first base for someone who had never played the position before, he probably isn’t a viable solution at first over the longer term (plus, the Sox have Bobby Dalbec and prospect Triston Casas ready for more first base time).  However, Schwarber hit so well during his two-plus months in Boston that it isn’t surprising that the club will look to get creative in trying to find a fit for him in the lineup.  For his part, Schwarber said after the ALCS that he would be interested in a return to the Sox.
  • Despite Andrew Heaney’s very rough 2021 season, several teams are eyeing the left-hander as a possible bounce-back candidate.  The New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link) lists the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Nationals as some of the teams interested in the free agent hurler.  Heaney still had above-average strikeout and walk rates last year, as most of his problems stemmed from an inability to avoid home runs — Heaney allowed a whopping 29 homers over his 129 2/3 innings with the Angels and Yankees.

2021 Gold Glove Winners Announced

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The 2021 Gold Glove winners were announced tonight, with plenty of Cardinal Red to be found amidst the gold.  The Cardinals became the first team to ever have five players capture Gold Gloves, underlining the tremendous all-around defensive effort that helped St. Louis reach the postseason.  Ironically, the only nominated Cardinals player who didn’t win was the most decorated name of the group — nine-time winner Yadier Molina.

The A’s, Royals, Astros, and the World Series champion Braves also had multiple winners, with each club boasting two Gold Glovers.  Ten of the 18 winners captured their first Gold Gloves, though some veteran winners continued to shine.  The most notable of the multiple-time winners is Nolan Arenado, who becomes the 23rd player to ever win nine or more Gold Gloves in his career.  Arenado still has plenty of time to continue his climb up the all-time list, yet catching 16-time winner Brooks Robinson for the all-time third base record may be a tall order even for Arenado.

Here is the full list of winners, as well as the other two nominated finalists at each position….

NL Catcher: Jacob Stallings, Pirates (1st career Gold Glove)
Yadier Molina/Cardinals, J.T. Realmuto/Phillies

NL First Base: Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (4th)
Freddie Freeman/Braves, Max Muncy/Dodgers

NL Second Base: Tommy Edman, Cardinals (1st)
Ozzie Albies/Braves, Kolten Wong/Brewers

NL Third Base: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (9th)
Manny Machado/Padres, Ryan McMahon/Rockies

NL Shortstop: Brandon Crawford, Giants (4th)
Francisco Lindor/Mets, Kevin Newman/Pirates

NL Left Field: Tyler O’Neill, Cardinals (2nd)
David Peralta/Diamondbacks, AJ Pollock/Dodgers

NL Center Field: Harrison Bader, Cardinals (1st)
Jackie Bradley Jr./Brewers, Bryan Reynolds/Pirates

NL Right Field: Adam Duvall, Braves/Marlins (1st)
Mookie Betts/Dodgers, Mike Yastrzemski/Giants

NL Pitcher: Max Fried/Braves (2nd)
Zach Davies/Cubs, Zack Wheeler/Phillies

AL Catcher: Sean Murphy, Athletics (1st)
Martin Maldonado/Astros, Salvador Perez/Royals

AL First Base: Yuli Gurriel, Astros (1st)
Matt Olson/Athletics, Jared Walsh/Angels

AL Second Base: Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (1st)
David Fletcher/Angels, Whit Merrifield/Royals

AL Third Base: Matt Chapman, Athletics (3rd)
Jose Ramirez/Guardians, Joey Wendle/Rays

AL Shortstop: Carlos Correa, Astros (1st)
J.P. Crawford/Mariners, Andrelton Simmons/Twins

AL Left Field: Andrew Benintendi, Royals (1st)
Randy Arozarena/Rays, Lourdes Gurriel Jr./Blue Jays

AL Center Field: Michael A. Taylor, Royals (1st)
Kevin Kiermaier/Rays, Myles Straw/Guardians

AL Right Field: Joey Gallo, Yankees/Rangers (2nd)
Hunter Renfroe/Red Sox, Kyle Tucker/Astros

AL Pitcher: Dallas Keuchel, White Sox (5th)
Jose Berrios/Blue Jays and Twins, Zack Greinke/Astros

Astros Offer Carlos Correa Five-Year, $160MM Contract

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When the Astros and Carlos Correa talked contract extension last spring, the shortstop said the Astros made him offers of six years and $120MM, and then five years and $125MM.  While Correa is just hours away from the free agent market, the Astros are still trying to retain his services, and Mark Berman of FOX 26 (Twitter link) reports that the club’s last offer is a five-year deal worth $160MM.

This would be the largest contract Houston has ever given a player, topping the team’s five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve.  The offer’s $32MM average annual value would also be the 10th-highest AAV of any contract in baseball history, making it a pretty significant commitment on the Astros’ part.

However, it is also drastically below what Correa is likely to receive on the open market.  Correa is only entering his age-27 season, and he has already indicated that he’ll be looking for a pact in the nine- or ten-year range.  It isn’t out of the question that Correa might even hit $32MM (or at least come close) in average annual value on such a long-term deal, so it doesn’t seem like Houston’s offer is going to inspire a late-minute change of mind on Correa’s part.

In fact, there is enough of a gap between the Astros’ offer and Correa’s asking price that it’s probably safe to assume the team didn’t have much expectation of Correa actually accepting the deal.  There could be some public relations logistics at play, since the team can now present that $32MM AAV as a “we tried” gesture to fans upset over Correa’s departure.

However, the offer could also be interpreted as something of a public sign to other free agents about what the Astros are willing to spend on a top-tier free agent, if not Correa himself.  The Astros haven’t gone beyond a five-year contract with any player during Jim Crane’s ownership of the team, and while Crane recently said “things could change” in that regard, it is possible they might be willing to only go as high as six years, judging by their initial offer to Correa.  Houston does appear to be willing to make up for the lack of contractual length with higher average annual salaries, which could be of interest to other players.  A free agent who is already past age 30, for instance, probably isn’t counting on a contract beyond five or six guaranteed years, and thus might be keen on a relatively shorter-term deal that promises a higher AAV.

Justin Verlander Still Awaiting Qualifying Offer Decision

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Astros owner and chairman Jim Crane insists that his club has the resources they need to improve their ball club, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Crane did not mince words when speaking of his team needs, simply calling out the fact that the Astros will be looking for pitching and a shortstop, per Rome.

The latter need is the more finite and interesting of the two. Carlos Correa will presumably walk as a free agent, despite the resources that Crane touts as being available to his club. Certainly, for a club that has made three World Series appearances over the past five years, there should be no shortage of financial might.

The decision to let Correa walk, should they do so, is more a calculated evaluation of resource allocation. Still, it’s interesting for Crane to voice that position as one of need. Jeremy Pena has shown promise in the minor leagues, but it would be a tall order for Pena to step directly into the starting lineup for Correa, a franchise icon and two-time All-Star. The 24-year-old his an impressive .287/.346/.598 over 133 plate appearances at Triple-A.

On the pitching side, the Astros have already shifted to a new generations of arms led by the likes of Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, and Luis Garcia. Former ace and rotation stalwart Justin Verlander is still awaiting a possible qualifying offer, however. Despite missing all of last season because of Tommy John surgery, the 38-year-old would be a high ceiling, short-term use of the Astros’ financial might, were they to go ahead and extend the qualifying offer. The deadline to extend that offer is Sunday, and the Astros are still considering their options, tweets Rome.

Astros Sign Dusty Baker To One-Year Extension

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The Astros are bringing back their skipper, announcing on Friday that they’ve agreed to a one-year contract that keeps Dusty Baker in the dugout for 2022. It’ll be his third season in Houston.

Baker has had plenty of success in his first two years, leading the team to the AL Championship Series in 2020 and an AL pennant this past season. Houston lost to the Braves in the World Series, but there’s little question the Astros have had plenty of success during Baker’s tenure. Over his two seasons at the helm, the team has posted a 124-98 regular season record (.559 winning percentage) and won four of six playoff series.

Of course, Baker inherited a much stronger roster than most first-year skippers receive. The Astros had gone to the World Series in 2019 under A.J. Hinch, and Baker took over a star-studded clubhouse in a win-now situation. With that talent came the challenge of overseeing a group embroiled in criticism and disrepute after the revelation of the team’s 2017 sign-stealing operation. Regardless of the caliber of players on the roster, the scandal could have weighed on the club’s on-field performance. The front office surely gives Baker no small amount of credit for his ability to navigate the fallout of a cheating scheme that preceded his time in the organization and lead the team to continued success.

Given his success over his first two seasons, Baker always looked to deserve another shot in Houston, assuming the 72-year-old wanted to continue managing. As the expiration of his current two-year deal neared, however, some speculation had begun to mount about his future. Baker’s hiring predated that of general manager James Click, and there’d at least seemed some possibility Click would prefer to bring in his own hire in that role. That apparently won’t be the case, as Baker is now slated to return after meeting with owner Jim Crane this morning.

Even before his successful couple of seasons in Houston, Baker had established himself as one of the most accomplished managers in MLB history. A two-time All-Star as a player, he first became a big league skipper with the 1993 Giants. Baker led the Giants for ten seasons, then managed the Cubs from 2003-06, the Reds from 2008-13 and the Nationals from 2016-17. His teams posted cumulative winning records in every stop except for Chicago, and Baker’s 1,987 regular season wins are the twelfth-most in history. Only Tony La Russa has more wins among active skippers.

Baker will assuredly eclipse 2,000 wins early next season, and he’ll have another chance at claiming a first World Series title. The three-time Manager of the Year winner’s teams haven’t been without postseason success, as he’s led four teams at least as far as an LCS and two squads (the 2002 Giants and 2021 Astros) to a pennant. Baker’s clubs haven’t yet claimed a World Series title, though. There’s certainly a fair amount of bad luck in that fact, given the small sample vagaries of playoff baseball.

Regardless of whether or to what extent Baker deserves blame for his teams not yet winning a World Series, there’s no doubt he’ll be motivated to accomplish that elusive final goal. The Astros are facing the potential departures of quite a few key free agents, most notably shortstop Carlos Correa, but they’re sure to bring back another very talented roster even if they lose a couple of their top players. With Baker back to lead the charge, Houston figures to yet again enter the season as one of the top contenders in the American League.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that Baker was expected to re-sign. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to relay that Baker had signed a one-year deal.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros To Exercise 2022 Option On Yuli Gurriel

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The Astros are set to exercise their $8MM club option to bring Yuli Gurriel back for 2022, the first baseman himself announced on Twitter. That’s hardly an unexpected development, as that option has looked like a mere formality for months given how well Gurriel played in 2021.

Gurriel returns for what’ll be a seventh season in Houston. A productive hitter over his first few seasons, he scuffled through an uncharacteristically poor 2020 campaign. Despite those struggles, the Astros struck early to keep him from reaching free agency last winter, signing him for a guaranteed $7.5MM in September with the 2022 option. It seemed a bit of a puzzling move at the time, but it turned out to be a fantastic decision by general manager James Click and his staff.

Not only did Gurriel return to form this past season, he posted a career year. Over 605 plate appearances, the right-handed hitter put up a .319/.383/.462 line with 15 home runs. That .319 mark won Gurriel his first batting title, and his overall offensive output was 34 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+. While he doesn’t hit for the kind of power typically found at the position, Gurriel is one of the game’s hardest players to strike out and walked in a career-high 9.8% of his plate appearances this past season.

With Gurriel’s option taken care of, he’ll return to again assume the everyday first base job. The move brings the Astros’ guaranteed 2022 commitments just north of $114MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. An arbitration class collectively projected to earn around $14.5MM will push that total near $130MM before considering outside additions. That’s about $60MM shy of their season-opening outlay in 2021, so Click and his staff should have some flexibility in trying to retain or replace a free agent group that includes Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander,Kendall Graveman and Zack Greinke.

Zack Greinke Not Expected To Re-Sign With Astros

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The Astros have one of the more significant crop of free agents around the league, as the team is facing the potential departures of Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander, Kendall Graveman and Zack Greinke, among others. Houston may make an effort to retain some of that group, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) that Greinke is not expected to return to the Astros this winter.

Assuming he indeed signs elsewhere, Greinke will wrap up his Astros tenure after two and a half seasons. Acquired from the D-Backs in a surprise 2019 deadline day blockbuster, the six-time All-Star worked 62 2/3 innings with a pristine 3.02 ERA down the stretch. While he was knocked around in one start during the Division Series, Greinke had strong showings in both the AL Championship Series and World Series that year.

Over the past two seasons, Greinke has offered more steady mid-rotation production than the ace-caliber numbers he consistently posted for the bulk of his career. He worked 67 frames of 4.03 ERA ball in 2020, and put up a similar 4.16 mark over 171 innings this past season. His underlying numbers this year took a worrying downturn, though, which contributed to the team curtailing his postseason workload. Greinke’s strikeout rate dropped from 24.5% in 2020 to 17.2% this past season, while his home run rate doubled. During this year’s run to the World Series, skipper Dusty Baker relied more heavily on the team’s younger arms, with Greinke working just 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball in three playoff outings.

The dip in swing-and-miss should have some impact on Greinke’s offseason market, but the 38-year-old will no doubt still find plenty of interest. His 4.16 ERA, while his highest mark since 2016, was nevertheless a bit better than the leaguewide 4.34 showing for starting pitchers. Greinke remains one of the sport’s preeminent control artists, with this year’s 5.2% walk percentage checking in 11th-lowest among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings. And that’s before considering the intangible value teams could expect from the 18-year big league veteran, who is regarded as one of the league’s most cerebral pitchers.

Nightengale suggests Greinke would prefer an opportunity with a National League team. That’s something of an odd distinction on the surface, since it’s widely expected that this offseason’s collective bargaining talks could result in the introduction of the designated hitter to the NL (thereby removing the biggest differentiator between the two leagues). Still, it’s possible Greinke — who played the bulk of the 2011-19 seasons playing for NL clubs — might broadly prefer the accommodations or ballparks in the NL to those of the American League.

Astros’ Pitching Coach Brent Strom Won’t Return In 2022

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In the champagne-colored haze that followed the World Series, the top story was the championship team in Atlanta, of course. But there was also some news from the opposing side, as Brent Strom held a post-game scrum and announced that he will not be returning as the Astros’ pitching coach next season. (Links from Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and Mark Berman of Fox 26.) A few weeks ago, Strom had hinted that he was considering this path, before making it official after last night’s game.

The 73-year-old isn’t committed to a full-on retirement necessarily, but seems confident about the role he won’t have. “There may be another opportunity for me somewhere else. I may look at that. I may just go lie on a beach in Mexico,” Strom said. “But I need to enjoy my life a little bit. I haven’t had a summer in a long time. So we’ll see. I haven’t made a final decision yet, but I know I won’t be back as the Major League pitching coach here. Yeah. I know that for a fact.”

Strom made 100 appearances over five seasons in his playing career, from 1972 to 1977. He logged 501 innings with an ERA of 3.95 over his time with three different clubs. Since then, he’s been coaching in different roles for various organizations, including the Royals, Nationals and Cardinals. But his most consistent stretch at the big league level has been his most recent tenure with the Astros, running from 2014 through 2021, which coincided with their emergence from a lengthy rebuild into a consistent powerhouse club, including the now-infamous championship club from 2017.

Strom’s departure opens up an important position in the dugout, and he seemed to imply that the torch will be passed to someone already within the organization, listing bullpen coach Josh Miller and assistant pitching coach Bill Murphy as options. “I really think this organization’s in a really good position with these two young pitching coaches that we have, and I’m sure had I stayed there would be teams coming after these two guys,” he said. “I think this organization deserves these two young guys, Murphy and Miller, to stay. How they work that out is up to them.” Miller has been with the organization since 2011, working in various roles over the past decade, but has been the bullpen coach for the past three seasons. Murphy signed on to work with the Astros’ minor leaguers prior to the 2017 season and then worked his way up to the big league team for the 2021 campaign.

It’s unclear if the Astros’ front office perceives the transition as smoothly as Strom does, but he made it clear that Miller and Murphy already deserve much of the credit for the current Houston pitching staff. “If you look at all these pitchers that we have right now, most of them came up through those two guys. Outside of Lance [McCullers Jr.] that I had as a holdover, all my guys have kind of moved on.” With that framing in mind, it seems like Strom has already been gradually relinquishing some duties to Murphy and Miller. But it remains to be seen how the organization will divvy up the job titles and responsibilities for next season, or if they plan to consider external hires.

Elsewhere on Houston’s coaching staff, there will also be a vacancy in the manager’s seat with Dusty Baker’s contract now expiring, although it’s possible that matter will be settled in short order. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that Astros’ owner Jim Crane “plans to sit down with Dusty Baker in the next few days to iron out a one- or 2-year contract.” The return of Baker would not come as a huge surprise, given how his time in Houston has gone so far. The club was mired in the aftermath of the scandalous sign-stealing revelations when Crane personally hired Baker as the new skipper, and he has guided the club through a pair of successful campaigns, making it to the ALCS in 2020 and the World Series in 2021. Crane discussed the matter about a month ago and didn’t say anything definitive, but spoke positively of Baker. Dusty himself seemed to indicate that he wanted to return, when discussing things a few weeks ago, making it seem like there’s enough mutual interest for an extension to potentially come together fairly quickly.

Framber Valdez, Tucker Davidson To Start Game 5 Of World Series

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The Astros will turn to Framber Valdez to stave off elimination in tonight’s fifth game of the World Series, while the Braves will kick off a bullpen game with another rookie pitcher.  The Braves announced this afternoon that left-hander Tucker Davidson will get the start (or, more accurately, serve as the opener) in what will be Davidson’s first career postseason appearance, and only his sixth career games at the Major League level.  Davidson was added to the Braves’ World Series roster as an injury replacement after Charlie Morton suffered a fractured fibula during Game 1.

Davidson made one start for Atlanta in 2020 and then posted a 3.60 ERA over four starts and 20 innings this season, with his most recent MLB outing coming back on June 15 due to a forearm injury.  In fact, Davidson has only pitched one game total since that June 15 start, tossing three innings for Triple-A Gwinnett on the final day of the minor league season (October 3).

Though Davidson is one of the better pitching prospects in Atlanta’s farm system, obviously it’s anyone’s guess as to what he’ll be able to deliver on the mound, even in what might amount to just an inning of work.  That said, given how the rest of the Braves bullpen has stifled Houston’s lineup throughout the World Series, Davidson’s task is just to avoid disaster and then turn things over to his veteran teammates.

The Braves followed this same script in Game 4, as rookie Dylan Lee worked as the opener and pitched to four batters, recording one out and allowing a run on a hit and two walks.  Kyle Wright then entered the game to bail Lee out, and Wright proceeded to toss 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball.  A scoreless inning each from Chris Martin, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and Will Smith later, and Atlanta sealed a 3-2 victory and a commanding 3-1 lead in the Series.

Astros hitters have combined for a meager .206/.291/.298 slash line over the four games against the Braves, with only Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker showing any consistency at the plate.  Starting the southpaw Davidson in Game 5 could be a preventative measure on Atlanta’s part against Houston moving the left-handed hitting Tucker up in the batting order, though the Braves have plenty of other left-handed options on their roster.

The lack of production from the usually-reliable lineup is the biggest issue facing the Astros, as their own pitchers have done a solid job of limiting Atlanta’s offense over the last three games, with only one victory to show for it.  In Game 1, however, the Braves hit Valdez hard for five runs over two innings, setting up a 6-2 Atlanta win in the Series opener.

It has been a roller-coaster of a playoffs for Valdez, who has been very shaky outside of his eight-inning/one-run gem against the Red Sox in Game 5 of the ALCS.  In Valdez’s other three starts this postseason, he has been torched for 11 runs over nine innings of work.  With the season on the line for the Astros, manager Dusty Baker may have a relatively quick hook for Valdez at the first sign of trouble, as Houston will have every available arm at the ready to try and get the Series to a sixth game.

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