- Early indications are that Cuban outfielder Luis Robert will be cleared for free agency during the current international signing period, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports, though nothing has yet been finalized. If Robert is cleared before the stricter international bonus rules come into play during the next signing period (which opens on July 2), he stands to score a much larger payday than he would if his free agency isn’t granted until after the end of the current signing period on June 15. Robert had a private workout for the Astros in the Dominican Republic and he is scheduled for workouts with the Athletics and Reds next week; the Padres, Cardinals and White Sox are also expected to bring the 19-year-old in for workouts. Chicago is the only one of those six teams that hasn’t already exceeded its 2016-17 bonus pool limit, though Badler has reported that the White Sox may be the favorites to sign the highly-touted Robert.
Astros Rumors
What Might A Carlos Correa Extension Look Like?
Greg Genske, the agent for Astros phenom Carlos Correa, made news this week when he told FanRag’s Jon Heyman his client “is never going to do an multiyear contract” before he becomes eligible for free agency following the 2021 season. Correa later responded that he was unaware of Genske’s comments and said he would consider an extension, although he noted that “the price has got to be right.”
As a former first overall pick in the draft, Correa has already received a significant upfront payday in the form of a $4.8MM bonus, and as Heyman notes, he also has an endorsement deal with Adidas. He might therefore not be desperate to sign away future free-agent years to secure a guarantee.
In the end, then, we don’t know much more about the likelihood of Correa signing an extension than we did a week ago, although it seems fair to say he and the Astros won’t be announcing one anytime soon. Just for kicks, though, let’s imagine what an extension for Correa might look like.
When trying to assess the likely shape of a pre-agency extension, MLBTR’s Extension Tracker is usually a great starting point. Extensions tend to be based on precedents set by previous extensions, which is probably one reason why, for example, Jay Bruce, Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Carpenter and Jason Kipnis all got pre-free agency six-year deals that guaranteed $51MM-$52.5MM when each of them had between two and three years of service time, and why each’s new signee’s deal was worth a few hundred thousand dollars more than the previous one. (All of the deals except Upton’s contained one option, as well.)
So let’s look for potential precedents for a Correa deal based on his talent and upon his service class. Correa headed into the season with 1.119 years of service. Here, then, are the two most expensive extensions in our tracker for players with between one and two years of service time.
Andrelton Simmons: seven years, $58MM
Christian Yelich: seven years, $49.5MM plus one team option
We can see here that a Correa extension will probably require more creative thinking than merely looking at precedents. As good as Simmons and Yelich are, they don’t shine as brightly as Correa one day could, and particularly in Simmons’ case, they wouldn’t have been likely to produce the arbitration paydays Correa one day might.
Also, Correa is a year younger than Yelich was at the time of his extension, and two years younger than Simmons when he signed his. Correa is currently on pace to hit free agency just after he turns 27. His youth could make him particularly valuable on the free agent market, as Jason Heyward — who got $184MM and two opt-outs after becoming a free agent at 26 — can probably attest. Correa and Genske might well see the combination of Correa’s talent and youth as such special characteristics that they’d be especially unlikely to forgo Correa’s opportunity to explore free agency entering his age-27 season, particularly since he’ll hit the market after the signings of what might prove to be precedent-setting new deals for very young superstars like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, both of whom are set for free agency after 2018.
With that in mind, let’s see if there are other, less obvious, precedents that might help shape an offer that could make Correa think twice.
Buster Posey, 2.161 years of service time (Super Two): eight years, $159MM plus team option
Mike Trout, 2.070: six years, $144.5MM
It seems reasonable to imagine that a Correa extension of a typical length of, say, seven years should fall somewhere in the wide gulf between the Simmons deal and the Trout deal. It’s hard to imagine Correa approaching Posey/Trout territory on any deal of reasonable length — he doesn’t have the service time they did at the time of their extensions, and the Astros are already set to pay Correa near the league minimum salary for each of the next two seasons. He also frankly doesn’t yet have the track record Posey and Trout had at the times of their deals. Posey had won the NL MVP award the year prior to his extension, and Trout finished second in AL MVP balloting in each of the two seasons preceding his.
Another possibility might be for the Astros to sign Correa to a way-outside-the-box extension, offering him a guarantee of ten years or more, a bit like the Marlins did for Giancarlo Stanton or the Reds did for Joey Votto. Both Correa and the Astros would surely see such a deal as risky, and it’s a hard to see the sabermetrically inclined Astros organization taking such a decisive risk on a single player. Correa’s camp might also ask for an opt-out along the lines of the one Stanton got. If there were ever a good candidate for such a lengthy extension, though, Correa would seem to fit the bill, as he’s extremely young, talented and athletic.
Alternately, it’s also possible the two sides could reach a simpler deal that would buy out some or all of Correa’s arbitration seasons while still allowing him to become a free agent following the 2021 campaign. Such a deal seems somewhat unlikely, however, given Correa’s existing sources of income and the absence of a good reason for the Astros to agree to such a pact without getting a significant discount on what they believe Correa’s arbitration-year payouts might be.
There doesn’t currently appear to be much motivation on Correa’s side to sign a deal, and it might be best for their side to wait a year before talking about an extension with the Astros, if they ever do. Allowing Correa to play an extra year might allow his camp to strengthen their argument for giving Correa a deal closer to Posey’s or Trout’s. Correa said this week, though, that he’s not interested in a deal once he hits his arbitration seasons, which begin in 2019. And if he does emerge as a Posey- or Trout-level superstar by then, the possibility of a Harper- or Machado-like payday in his future might be too tempting to resist.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Carlos Correa Avoids Major Injury
- The Astros faced a scary situation in Oakland on Saturday when shortstop Carlos Correa left early after taking a 96 mph fastball from Frankie Montas to the left hand. Fortunately for the Astros and Correa, X-rays only revealed a contusion. “Good news, obviously,” Correa told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. “I thought it was going to be a lot worse. Obviously, it was a hard-throwing guy and it was a fastball inside. He didn’t give me a chance to get out of the way and I got hit in the hand. Thank God no fracture.” Correa, who’s day-to-day, hopes to return to Houston’s lineup Sunday.
Prospect Lupe Chavez Retires
- Astros righty Lupe Chavez has retired, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle notes. The Astros acquired the 19-year-old Chavez last August when they traded Scott Feldman to Toronto. Chavez had never pitched above the short-season leagues but had generally been successful, with a 2.19 ERA, 8.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 107 career innings. The reason for his somewhat surprising decision to retire isn’t known.
Would Carlos Correa Consider An Early-Career Extension?
TODAY: Correa tells Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle that he wasn’t aware of his agent’s comments and provided a somewhat different outlook, noting that he’d be “more than glad to listen” if approached with an offer. While Correa said that he has an open mind, and emphasized that he isn’t focused on a long-term deal, he did suggest that there’s something of a time limit on his willingness to consider signing away free-agent years.
“I’m not shutting the door,” he said. “The price has got be right, you know what I mean? And it’s got to be early. Once I get to arbitration there’s no turning back.”
YESTERDAY: Carlos Correa “is never going to do an [early] multiyear contract,” agent Greg Genske tells Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. The 22-year-old, who has already established himself as a star, is instead content to go year to year for the time being. Indeed, a “friend” tells Heyman that Correa’s “mentality has always been that he’s going to play it out.”
The organization’s decision to renew Correa at the league minimum in each of the last two years probably doesn’t help things, but that doesn’t seem to be the main driver here. (Per Heyman, Houston was offering around $565K this year and might have gone a bit higher, but Correa was willing to take the hit rather than agreeing to a price tag with which he didn’t agree.) Instead, as Heyman notes, the fact that he has already lined up significant sponsorship deals helps ensure that there’ll be plenty of earnings even if he suffers an injury or surprising performance downturn.
It’s worth noting, too, that Correa took home a $4.8MM bonus when he was taken first overall in the 2012 draft, which means he had already locked up life-changing money before reaching the majors. And though he probably won’t reach arbitration eligibility until 2019 — with 1.119 years of service entering the year, he’s unlikely to qualify as a Super Two player next winter — his early performance levels all but assure he’ll be richly compensated from that point forward.
Perhaps it’s still possible that the sides could end up exploring an extension at some point in the future, when Correa reaches arbitration and begins nearing free agency. Whether or not the minor salary squabbles impact that remain to be seen, but in all likelihood future arb discussions will be of greater import. Most important of all, of course, will be the willingness of Correa to forego a chance to test the open market when he’ll be entering only his age-27 season in 2022.
For the time being, Correa and the ’Stros will continue to enjoy what has thus far been a highly productive relationship. Correa carried a .276/.354/.475 batting line with 42 home runs in just over one thousand plate appearances entering the current season, making him one of the best-hitting shortstops in all of baseball. While there’s currently a bumper crop of shortstops sprouting around the game, some of whom rate as more talented defenders, Correa is undeniably a top-quality all-around talent who rates as one of the best young players in baseball.
Astros Impressed With Charlie Morton
This year’s Padres are turning “tanking” into an art form, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The Padres feature three players selected in the Rule 5 Draft, plus an incredibly inexperienced outfield and three starting pitchers who have recently been released. GM A.J. Preller’s strategy this season, Sherman writes, amounts to a “more extreme version of, say, what the Astros and Cubs did” — essentially, being indifferent to winning in the short term in order to get choice draft picks. Notably, Sherman detects a personal tone to criticism of the Padres’ strategy from employees of other organizations, in part because of Preller’s failure to disclose some relevant medical information in past trades, including the deal last season that sent Drew Pomeranz to Boston.
- The Astros have liked what they’ve seen so far of Charlie Morton, who signed a two-year, $14MM deal with the team last winter, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes. “I do believe that Charlie Morton isn’t a back-of-the-rotation guy,” said GM Jeff Luhnow during Spring Training. “He hit 97 three times in the first inning yesterday, with a lot of sink on his pitches and good secondary stuff. A healthy Charlie Morton could work himself into the conversation with Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers at the top of our rotation.” Morton allowed just two runs and two walks while striking out six in his first start of the year against the Mariners this week, although, uncharacteristically, he allowed 11 fly balls. Morton is excited about his new team’s prospects, Kepner writes. “The whole team is strong,” he says. “I just don’t see how we’re not set up to win.”
Astros Among Teams With Most Interest In Luis Robert
- The White Sox, Astros, Padres, Reds and Cardinals are the teams with the most interest in highly touted outfield prospect Luis Robert, reports Rosenthal. If he’s cleared to sign by June 15, the 19-year-old will go down as the last Cuban amateur to sign for big money – should the new collective bargaining agreement rules remain in place for a while, that is. Ben Badler of Baseball America has reported on multiple occasions that the White Sox are the favorites to land Robert. Unlike the ChiSox, all of the Astros, Padres, Cardinals and Reds have already exceeded their 2016-17 international bonus pools.
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Collin McHugh Shut Down For Six Weeks
Astros righty Collin McHugh has been shut down for six weeks with a posterior impingement of his right elbow, the team has announced. An MRI did not reveal problems with his ulnar collateral ligament. McHugh will avoid surgery and will be reevaluated after six weeks. McHugh had begun the season on the DL due to right shoulder tendinitis, and he was pulled from a Triple-A rehab start earlier this week with elbow discomfort.
The 29-year-old McHugh posted a 4.34 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 184 2/3 innings with the Astros last year, continuing a solid three-year run that began when he posted a 2.73 ERA and finished fourth in AL Rookie Of The Year voting after the Astros claimed him from the Rockies in the 2013-14 offseason. He was set to open 2017 once again in the Houston rotation. In his absence, the Astros will continue to rely on their depth, with both Joe Musgrove and Mike Fiers joining Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. There’s also Chris Devenski and long reliever Brad Peacock, both of whom have MLB starting experience.
In Triple-A Fresno, the Astros also have top prospect Francis Martes, although they might like him to get some experience at that level before joining the big-league rotation. Righty Brady Rodgers also appears to be a reasonable depth option.
Significant trades rarely occur this early in the season, so it stands to reason that the Astros might wait before making a huge move to replace McHugh. It’s worth noting, though, that they were connected to the White Sox’ Jose Quintana throughout the offseason and have more than enough young talent to complete a major trade. In lieu of that, it perhaps wouldn’t be surprising if they attempted some sort of minor transaction to round out their starting pitching depth.
AL West Notes: Cintron, McHugh, Ross, Faulkner
Former big leaguer Alex Cintron has joined the Astros as an interpreter, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports. The nine-year veteran, who’s now 38, will primarily function as the club’s Spanish-language liaison while traveling with the team, though GM Jeff Luhnow says he’ll also provide some value “on the baseball operations side of things.” MLB and the player’s association installed a new rule last year requiring every club to carry such personnel, though it seems Houston has added a bit of a wrinkle by hiring a former big leaguer whose duties will extend further.
Here’s more from the AL West’s Texas contingent:
- Astros righty Collin McHugh is slated for a checkup after experiencing elbow and biceps tightness in his Triple-A rehab outing yesterday, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports. The medical evaluation will obviously dictate how things progress, but as Kaplan writes, Houston must now consider the possibility that McHugh won’t be back for a few more weeks. He had been expected to return to the majors in the next few days, but was only able to work one inning before he was pulled.
- Things seemingly went better for Rangers righty Tyson Ross, who worked three innings in extended spring action, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports on Twitter. Next up for Ross is a four-inning outing on April 12th. Obviously, it seems he’ll keep building up while working on a five-day schedule; given the progress thus far, perhaps he’ll be prepared to join the MLB roster in relatively short order. If and when he does, Ross will be throwing his first big league pitches since Opening Day of 2016.
- The Rangers’ decision to trade lefty Andrew Faulkner yesterday came about after he fell well shy of expectations this spring, as Grant explains. Faulkner, 24, seemed set to compete for a pen job in camp, but never ironed out his mechanics. As Grant details, he lost his feel for the zone so much that he was not even appearing in minor-league games after departing major league camp. The Orioles evidently see some hope still, so for now he’ll take a 40-man spot in Baltimore. Meanwhile, Grant explains, Texas appears likely to utilize the roster spot that was cleared to add another reserve infielder or reliever.
McHugh Exits Rehab Start With Trainer
- Astros right-hander Collin McHugh exited his rehab start with Triple-A Fresno on Thursday after just one inning, per Bryant-Jon Anteola of the Fresno Bee (Twitter links). According to Anteola, McHugh threw 26 pitches in the first inning, but after a pair of warmup pitches prior to the second frame, he called for the trainer to come to the mound and was removed from the game. McHugh dealt with a dead arm during Spring Training and opened the season on the disabled list. There’s been no word from the team just yet, but Anteola notes that McHugh’s pitch count for the rehab outing was set for 85 pitches, making the early departure all the more ominous.
