Knocking Down The Door: Arcia, Benintendi, Bregman, Lopez, Reyes
This week’s installment of Knocking Down the Door features a top prospect whose older brother is already in the Majors, two players selected in the top 10 picks of the 2015 draft, and a pair of starters that could add some flames to the back of the bullpen with their organization’s big league club.
Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers (Triple-A Colorado Springs)
Arcia cemented his spot as the Brewers’ shortstop of the near future when he posted an .800 OPS with 25 stolen bases while playing most of the 2015 season as a 20 year-old in Double-A Biloxi. Now he’s on the verge of claiming that starting job before he reaches his 22nd birthday on August 4.
While Jonathan Villar‘s breakout season (.806 OPS, 31 steals) has played a part in pushing back Arcia’s estimated time of arrival in Milwaukee—it wouldn’t have surprised anyone if he was called up in early May—the recent trade of Aaron Hill opens up third base for Villar while Arcia is putting the finishing touches on his Minor League career with eight hits in his last 20 at-bats, including three doubles, a triple, a homer and seven runs batted in.
Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox (Double-A Portland)
The Red Sox have already patched up their bullpen by trading for Brad Ziegler, and they’re almost certain to acquire a starting pitcher before the non-waiver trade deadline on August 1 to shore up their shaky rotation. Their offense, meanwhile, is already the best in baseball and they could be even better once the Andrew Benintendi era begins.
I’m not certain that the 22-year-old Benintendi will be the first first-rounder (No. 7 overall) from the 2015 Draft to get the call to the big leagues—see Alex Bregman—but he shouldn’t be far behind. Coincidentally, Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently hinted that Benintendi is close and might not need a stop in Triple-A.
Since a promotion to Double-A in mid-May, the left-handed-hitting center fielder has an .844 OPS in 47 games, including a .310 batting average since a 2-for-19 start. He’ll man left field once he arrives in Boston with Brock Holt moving back into his valuable role as a super-utility man.
Alex Bregman, INF, Houston Astros (Triple-A Fresno)
If you watched the Futures Game on Sunday, you know that I’m not the only person that thinks Alex Bregman should be in the Majors by now, including Bregman, who declared, “I’m ready,” when asked on MLB Network what he wanted the world to know about him.
The 22-year-old continues to tear the cover off of the ball in Triple-A and obviously didn’t have any problems with the elite talent on the mound yesterday, as he was a home run shy of the cycle after just three at-bats. Opening a spot in the Houston’s lineup is really as simple as moving Luis Valbuena to first base and allowing A.J. Reed and Evan Gattis to platoon in the designated hitter spot—Gattis has an .802 OPS versus left-handed pitching and a .641 OPS versus right-handers.
The surging Astros will be fun to watch in the second half, especially with Bregman manning third base and hitting in the No. 2 spot between George Springer and Jose Altuve.
Reynaldo Lopez, SP/RP, Washington Nationals (Triple-A Syracuse)/Alex Reyes, SP/RP, St. Louis Cardinals (Triple-A Memphis)
I’ve lumped Lopez and Reyes together since the theme here is very similar. They’re two of the best pitching prospects in the Minor Leagues, both with limited experience in the upper minors—Lopez has 14 Double-A starts and two Triple-A starts; Reyes has made eight Double-A starts and nine Triple-A starts—and still a lot of room to develop as starting pitchers. But most will agree that they could dominate in the Major Leagues right now in one-to-two inning relief stints.
At 22 and 21 years of age, respectively, Lopez and Reyes could find themselves in the thick of the 2016 playoff race and pitching in plenty of meaningful games. Both can hit 100 mph on the radar gun as starters—I wouldn’t be surprised to see 102 mph in games where they’re only needed for a few batters. And, most importantly, their respective organizations could each use some help in the bullpen.
“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.
Injury Notes: Buxton, Holt, Kimbrel, Tazawa, Phillips, Davis, Cameron
Young Twins center fielder Byron Buxton was diagnosed with a contusion to his right knee after a scary collision with the wall. That could just be a preliminary diagnosis, though, and MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger noted on Twitter that Buxton required a cart and appeared to have difficulty putting pressure on the leg.
We’ll wait to learn more about Buxton’s situation, along with a host of others that arose on an ugly night for injuries around the game:
- Red Sox infielder/outfielder Brock Holt has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 ankle sprain after an awkward slide, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. Holt will require a walking boot, but that is the least concerning grade of the injury. While the prognosis doesn’t sound too serious, and the All-Star break will allow some added rest, it’s another tough blow to a team that just went out to plug some leaks by adding Aaron Hill and Michael Martinez via trade. Holt had been expected to hold down left field, so Boston will need to fill another gap for at least the near-term.
- Additionally, Red Sox relievers Craig Kimbrel and Junichi Tazawa were deemed unavailable for tonight’s action due to varying maladies, as Jason Mastrodonato and Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald were among those to report (Twitter links). Kimbrel came down with a sore knee before the game and has had an MRI, with results expected tomorrow, per Speier (via Twitter). Tazawa, meanwhile, is experiencing shoulder soreness of unknown seriousness. An MRI has not yet been ordered in his case. Any absence from either pitcher would certainly increase Boston’s desire to add to its pen, though it’s not yet known whether either situation is cause for much concern.
- Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips is playing through a hairline fracture in his hand, Zack Buchanan of Cincinnati Enquirer reports on Twitter. For now, at least, it’s just a question whether he can deal with the pain, though even a low-lying issue could throw a wrench into any trade possibilities. (Phillips’ no-trade clause still appears to be the biggest barrier to a deal.)
- Though the alarm bells went off when Royals closer Wade Davis hit the DL with a forearm strain, he tells Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com (Twitter link) that he’s progressing well. Davis says he was able to throw without experiencing pain, and that the inflammation has already dissipated. That’s all very promising news for Kansas City, needless to say.
- Intriguing young Astros prospect Daz Cameron will miss the rest of the season after breaking a finger in his left hand, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports on Twitter. It’s been a bit of a trying year for the touted 19-year-old, who wasn’t performing at Class A Quad Cities and ended up suffering the injury in extended spring training action. He’ll miss some development time, but the injury shouldn’t pose any significant long-term issues.
Jose Altuve Hires Scott Boras
Astros superstar Jose Altuve has changed agencies and is once again represented by Scott Boras, tweets Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. Robert Murray of FanRag Sports first noted the potential change yesterday (on Twitter). The 26-year-old had previously been repped by Boras but left his agency in 2013.
The agency switch won’t have any immediate impact on Altuve, who is in the midst of one of the game’s most attractive contracts (from the team perspective). He’s earning a modest $3.5MM this season in what would have been his second arbitration season, and he’ll take home $4.5MM in 2017 — his would-be third arbitration season. Houston also holds club options valued at $6MM and $6.5MM for the 2018-19 seasons which are, of course, a lock to be exercised barring some form of catastrophic injury. Altuve is currently slated to hit the open market for the first time as he heads into his age-30 season, so he’ll have plenty of earning potential three years down the line as a free agent.
Altuve’s agency switch will be reflected in the MLBTR Agency Database, which contains agent information on well over 2,000 Major League and minor league players. If you see any notable errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Trade Rumors: Hill, A’s, Royals, BoSox, Yanks, Dodgers
In his first start since May 29, Athletics left-hander Rich Hill returned from a groin injury to throw six innings of two-run, four-hit ball and rack up six strikeouts against two walks Saturday. Several playoff contenders sent representatives to observe Hill’s outing against the Pirates, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Incidentally, the Bucs were among the teams scouting him. In addition, four of the 36-year-old journeyman’s previous employers – the Orioles, Red Sox, Cubs and Yankees – as well as the Dodgers and Royals were in attendance to watch Hill, who could be the best starter dealt before the Aug. 1 trade deadline. The free agent-to-be has been brilliant when healthy this year, recording a 2.31 ERA, 10.29 K/9, 49.7 percent ground-ball rate and 15.3 percent infield fly rate in 70 innings. Dating back to his four-start revival in Boston last September, the out-of-nowhere ace has put up a tremendous 2.09 ERA in 99 frames.
More of the latest pre-deadline rumors:
- Along with Hill, the Royals also have interest in Athletics right fielder Josh Reddick, according to Slusser. However, they do not wish to reunite with another A’s trade chip, third baseman Danny Valencia. Kansas City was a rumored landing spot as of last week for Valencia, who was with the Royals in 2014 and should draw plenty of attention from other teams as the deadline nears.
- Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported Sunday that the Blue Jays have been scouting the Astros’ system, though he didn’t specify which players interested Toronto. It turns out that one prospect who intrigues the Jays is Double-A right-hander Francis Martes, tweets Chris Cotillo of SB Nation. Martes would be difficult to acquire, however, given that he’s among baseball’s premier prospects. Entering the season, Baseball America placed Martes 20th overall in its rankings. In its updated list, MLB.com has the 20-year-old at No. 36. In 63 2/3 innings this season, the hard-throwing Martes has logged a 4.10 ERA, 8.48 K/9 and 4.52 BB/9.
- While Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com expects the Angels’ Matt Shoemaker to garner interest leading up to the deadline, he doesn’t envision the Halos trading controllable starting pitching depth (Twitter link). The desperate-for-starters Red Sox – who roughed up Shoemaker on Sunday – would make sense as a trade partner if the Angels do make the righty available, opines Tim Britton of the Providence Journal (via Twitter). After a terrible first month of the season and a demotion to the minors, Shoemaker rejoined the Angels in May and has performed like an elite-level ace of late – Sunday notwithstanding. During an eight-start span prior to the Angels’ trip to Fenway Park, the 29-year-old amassed 57 2/3 innings, allowed 12 earned runs and piled up 68 strikeouts against a paltry five walks. As Gonzalez alluded to when mentioning team control, Shoemaker will make his first trip through arbitration during the upcoming offseason.
Cafardo’s Latest: Yanks, Rays, BoSox, Dodgers
Surprisingly, Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia has revived his career to the point that he might actually have value in a trade, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The soon-to-be 36-year-old has bounced back from multiple underwhelming seasons in a row to post an excellent 3.17 ERA in 76 2/3 innings in 2016, through his strikeout and walk ratios per nine innings (7.16 and 3.52) are each below average and he’s on a $25MM salary through 2017. In addition to Sabathia, hot-hitting 39-year-old right fielder/designated hitter Carlos Beltran, left fielder Brett Gardner, catcher Brian McCann, third baseman Chase Headley, and starters Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi are Yankees who could have value around the deadline (not to mention their much-ballyhooed relievers, of course). The only member of that group who’s set to become a free agent at season’s end is Beltran. As Cafardo points out, it’s currently up in the air whether the playoff hopeful Yankees would move any of these players, though he wonders if clinging to postseason dreams is the right course for the 39-41 club.
More inside stuff from Cafardo:
- Led by former Rays general manager and current president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers are in pursuit of Tampa Bay right-hander Chris Archer. The Rays aren’t planning on moving the 27-year-old as of now, though, which backs up FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal’s report from Saturday.
- The presence of senior vice president of baseball operations Frank Wren, formerly the Braves’ GM, could lead the Red Sox to go after Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran. Wren – who’s high on Teheran – is Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski’s right-hand man, Cafardo notes, and could push him toward putting together a package for the 25-year-old.
- If they’re unable to swing a deal for Teheran, the Red Sox might turn their attention to Rays southpaw Matt Moore – in whom they’re interested. Moore, who has three more years of team control left via club options, also intrigues the Astros, Dodgers, Orioles, Royals, Yankees and previously reported Rangers.
- With the possible exception of right-handed reliever Zach McAllister, the Indians aren’t going to give up pitching to augment their offense. Further, the organization has a reputation for keeping its payroll low and avoiding big-money acquisitions, which could take it out of the running to pick up a well-compensated trade chip. Athletics third baseman Danny Valencia, who’s on an affordable $3.15MM salary this season and has another trip through arbitration scheduled, is a potential target for Cleveland.
- Hard-throwing Diamondbacks lefty Robbie Ray, who’s eighth in the majors in K/9 (10.42), is drawing interest from teams looking for starters. The 24-year-old has thrown 214 innings of 4.00 ERA ball dating to 2015 and won’t even become eligible for arbitration until after 2017, meaning he has four full seasons of club control remaining.
- The Marlins are aggressively pursuing pitching, as evidenced already by their acquisition of reliever Fernando Rodney and reported interest in starters Drew Pomeranz and Jake Odorizzi. However, the Fish might not have the prospects to land a significant arm for their rotation, writes Cafardo.
- Blue Jays scouts are keeping a close watch over the Astros’ system, so the two AL playoff contenders could have some kind of deal in the works.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/2/16
Here are today’s minor moves from around the league.
- The White Sox have announced that they’ve acquired catcher Alfredo Gonzalez from the Astros and optioned him to Double-A Birmingham. Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets that the Astros will receive cash considerations in return. The Astros designated Gonzalez for assignment last week after he batted just .158/.236/.205 in 162 plate appearances at Double-A Corpus Christi. The 23-year-old posted a .409 on-base percentage in a 2015 season split between three levels, however, and has a reputation for having a good arm.
- Righty Casey Coleman has opted out of his minor league deal with the Mariners, Tacoma Rainiers broadcaster Mike Curto tweets. Coleman is in the midst of a terrific season, with a 2.08 ERA, 8.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 39 innings of relief in the PCL. “It was just a thing where I’ve been told I have some of the best numbers in the whole league,” said Coleman, via News-Press.com’s Seth Soffian. “Seattle had a bunch of guys that were coming off injury soon and their roster was pretty full. I’ve put myself in a situation to hopefully sign somewhere else.” Coleman, who will be 29 tomorrow, has a career 5.72 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in parts of four big-league seasons with the Cubs and Royals.
AL International Signings: 7/2/16
Here’s a roundup of key international signings from the American League not yet covered elsewhere on MLBTR.
- The Astros have agreed to terms with Dominican shortstop Freudis Nova and Venezuelan shortstop Yorbin Ceuta, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes (Twitter links). Nova, who will receive $1.2MM, ranks eighth on MLB.com’s list of the top international prospects available this signing period. He has power potential and a good bat overall, and while he might eventually have to move to third or the outfield, he should get chances to stay at short. Ceuta ranks 11th on Baseball America’s top international prospects list, with their extensive scouting report (subscription only) noting that he could end up with good OBP figures, although he doesn’t look like a big power hitter. He could stick at shortstop or move to second base.
- The Mariners have agreed to sign Dominican outfielder Luis Veloz to a $1.2MM deal, Sanchez tweets. Via MLB.com’s scouting report, which ranked Veloz the No. 25 prospect available this signing season, he wins praise for his arm and has good raw power, and could eventually end up a starting right fielder in the Majors. He was widely expected to sign with the Mariners.
- The White Sox have agreed to terms with Dominican outfielder Josue Guerrero on a $1.1MM deal, via Baseball America’s international signing tracker. BA ranked Guerrero the 33rd best prospect available. He’s the nephew of Vladimir Guerrero, joining a long line of minor leaguers who are related to the former Expos and Angels star. BA’s scouting report notes that Josue has good raw power, although he might be strikeout-prone, and he’s limited defensively and might end up a left fielder.
Latest On Yulieski Gurriel
Yulieski Gurriel remains a fascinating piece of the transactional picture as the deadline approaches, and Jon Heyman of todaysknuckleball.com writes that his market is heating up. The Marlins held a workout with the Cuban star, per the report, with the Giants also showing “strong interest” — though they’ve yet to host him for an up-close look.
We’ve already heard of San Francisco’s possible involvement, which GM Bobby Evans downplayed in recent comments. Other reports have connected the infielder to the Dodgers, Astros, Mets and Yankees, all of whom have held workouts. Heyman notes also that the Red Sox have taken a look, though he adds that Boston isn’t seen as being a likely destination.
The 32-year-old Gurriel is a legend in his home nation, where he has been one of the best players since reaching Serie Nacional as a teenager. And he also showed well in a brief stint in Japan’s NPB two years back. With an advanced bat and polished glove that’s capable of slotting in at third, second, and perhaps the corner outfield, it’s not hard to imagine a fit with many organizations.
Gauging his value is another matter. While there’s some possibility that he’ll be viewed as a deadline addition of sorts, the expectation is that Gurriel will need a decent bit of time to get up to speed in the minors after a long layoff from competitive action. That uncertainty leaves some room for variability.
Rival executives tell Heyman that Gurriel is looking for a deal that would cover this season and four more thereafter. His camp seems to be seeking something in the range of $10MM to $12MM per year, with one source telling Heyman that it wouldn’t be surprising if the veteran could achieve between $40MM and $50MM in total guarantee over a three or four-year term.
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined the possible market for Gurriel’s services, though that piece was written before the recent connections were reported. He and Steve Adams suggested that the contract given to Hector Olivera by the Dodgers (about $10MM annually) as a comparable. In this case, though, a shorter length (given his age) and perhaps a greater AAV (given his better pedigree and the market situation) are certainly possible.
Heyman’s Latest: Yankees, Pirates, Teheran, Marlins
There appear to be different viewpoints in the Yankees front office about how to approach the deadline, Jon Heyman of todaysknuckleball.com writes. GM Brian Cashman may actually be more inclined to sell some assets than is the ownership and upper-level management, per the report.
After a long look at that situation, Heyman goes on to provide some other notes from around the game:
- Some within the Yankees think there’s a very good chance that Aroldis Chapman will be around for the long-term, whether that comes about via extension or a re-signing over the winter. Meanwhile, a team official says the price on Andrew Miller is so high that the odds he’ll be dealt are miniscule.
- The Pirates could sell off a few short-term pieces if the club isn’t in contention come late July, but a broader sale isn’t expected. Heyman suggests Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon, David Freese, and perhaps Tony Watson as plausible trade chips. You could probably also throw names like Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, and Juan Nicasio into the mix as well.
- Julio Teheran may be pitching his way out of a trade for the Braves, says Heyman. Rival executives suggest that they see a trade as unlikely, and also gave some endorsement of his value. Heyman cites three who believe Teheran is a better trade piece than Sonny Gray of the Athletics at this stage.
- There’s plenty of demand on the starting pitching market, which is perhaps one reason to think that some arms could end up being pried loose. Heyman lists the Orioles, Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers, Rangers, Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners, and Yankees as looking for rotation pieces.
- The Marlins are also reputed to be looking for starting pitching, with Drew Pomeranz on the wish list. But a Miami source tells Heyman that the team finds it “hard to trust Pomeranz” given his relatively thin track record.
- The Padres “at least took a look” at Jose Reyes before he signed with the Mets, per Heyman. It isn’t clear what sort of opportunity San Diego was interested in offering, but it’s not surprising to hear that the organization is looking for low-cost ways to seek value.
International Notes: July 2 Preview, Maitan, Braves, Padres
Baseball America’s Ben Badler has compiled scouting reports on the Top 50 prospects on the upcoming July 2 international market, in addition to providing projected landing spots for each player on the list. The exhaustive report on the international scene requires a BA subscription, but it’s highly recommended for those who wish to dive headfirst into learning about the upcoming glut of talent that will be injected into most clubs’ minor league pipelines. Those looking to learn more about the process can also check out this primer from Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, who also provides a ranking of the class (with further explanation here).
Here are just a few highlights from Badler’s excellent work on the topic, which deserves a full read:
- Badler takes a particularly close look at top prospect Kevin Maitan, who he says may be a better prospect than Miguel Sano was as a teenager. The link comes with a lengthy and detailed scouting report, including discussion of the question whether Maitain will be able to stay at shortstop for the long run. Scouts are divided on the likelihood, but all seem to agree it’s at least a plausible outcome.
- Maitan has long been said to be heading for the Braves, and we’ve yet to hear anything to change that expectation. Atlanta has lined up a big batch of spending, but Badler provides a bit of context for just how large: he says it “should look comparable to what the Yankees did in 2014-15.” (You can refresh yourself on New York’s shock and awe campaign here.)
- The Padres appear headed in that direction, too, as Badler says that a $30MM to $35MM spend might be their floor. In addition to big activity on the Cuban market, San Diego is in line to add eight of the top fifty available players. As for the Nationals, who are also believed to be pacing the market in spending, it might not be quite that dramatic. But Washington could still come away with three of the fifteen best prospecs on the market.
- The Astros, too, seem ready to drop some big cash — including a $3.5MM bonus for Cuban shortstop Anibal Sierra. Houston is eyeing five of the top fifty names on Badler’s list, he notes. One player that could be ticketed for the ‘Stros is fifth overall prospect Freudis Nova.
- Nova had been connected to the Marlins before failing a PED test. Now, Badler explains, Miami has a big chunk of pool availability and little in the way of commitments. The club could deal that away or see if it can find a nice price on the Cuban market.
- It also remains to be seen what the Reds will do, but Badler explains that things could go in either of two directions. Cinci could trade for some added bonus pool space to add Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez and a few smaller signings without hitting the penalty. Or, the team could enter the broader Cuban market and blow past its limits.
- The White Sox are expected to land slugging prospect Josue Guerrero — who, yes, is a part of the famous family. Despite being quiet in recent years, the Athletics are in position to add some talent, including George Bell, whose father (same name) was a quality big leaguer.
- The Brewers aren’t believed to have any seven-figure bonuses lined up, but could still add a high number of interesting players with the fifth-highest spending availability in the game. Likewise, the Phillies are expected to spread their cash.
- Of course, not every team will have the opportunity to spend lavishly this period; the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Royals and Blue Jays are each prohibited from spending more than $300K on international amateurs after incurring maximum penalties, though that doesn’t mean those organizations don’t have a chance to find some talent.