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Astros Designate Matt Gage For Assignment

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The Astros have designated left-hander Matt Gage for assignment, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. This move opens up a roster spot for left-hander Josh Hader, whose signing has now been officially announced by the club.

Gage, 31 next month, has been on Houston’s roster just under a year, having been claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays in February of 2023. He spent the year as frequently-optioned bullpen depth, making five appearances in the majors with a 2.70 earned run average. His 34 Triple-A appearances didn’t go as well, as he posted a 4.58 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He struck out 23.4% of batters at that level but also walked 12%.

The southpaw had a better year in 2022, tossing 42 1/3 Triple-A innings while with the Jays, posting a 2.34 ERA for Buffalo. He paired a 27.4% strikeout rate with a 9.5% walk rate and also kept the ball on the ground at a 47% clip. He also made 11 big league appearances for the Jays with a 1.38 ERA.

The Astros will now have a week to trade Gage or try to pass him through waivers. Left-hander relief tends to always be in demand around the league and he still has an option remaining, which will enhance his appeal. His 2023 numbers for Sugar Land weren’t amazing, but clubs will surely take the hitter-friendly setting into account.

For the Astros, their situational lefty group takes a hit with Gage’s departure. Hader will be in the closer’s role for the foreseeable future, with Bennett Sousa and Parker Mushinski as the other southpaw relievers still on the roster.

Astros Notes: Extensions, Hader, Pressly, McCullers

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While the Astros prepare for the 2024 season, star infielders Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are headed into the final years of their contracts, with free agency looming next winter. As relayed by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Houston GM Dana Brown recently made clear that the club has not had extension discussions with either player this winter. The same goes for outfielder Kyle Tucker, who Rome adds recently indicated that he and the club did not discuss a long-term extension before agreeing to a $12MM salary for the 2024 season to avoid arbitration earlier this month. This winter marked Tucker’s penultimate trip through arbitration, and he’ll be eligible for free agency following the 2025 season.

That the team has not yet broached possible extension talks with any of the aforementioned trio is something of a surprise. Houston has leaned heavily on extensions to keep its core together since the team first returned to contention back in 2015. Over the past six years, the Astos have handed out extensions to Altuve, Bregman, Ryan Pressly (in both 2019 and 2022), Justin Verlander, Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. that extended the team’s window of control over each player.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that an unusually slow offseason has left the baseball world still in the thick of free agency, which could serve as a complicating factor in potential extension talks. Such discussions, particularly those for players like Altuve and Bregman who are not under control via arbitration, are often held once Spring Training begins. Last spring, Astros brass expressed a desire to work out deals with each of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Javier, and Framber Valdez, though the aforementioned Javier extension was the only one that ultimately got done. While it’s certainly possible that any of the trio could begin extension negotiations with the club after reporting to camp next month, each is a multi-time All Star coming off a strong season at the plate and could prove expensive to lock in long-term when free agency is just over the horizon.

More notes from Houston…

  • Now that the Astros have agreed to a five-year deal to bring star closer Josh Hader to Houston it seems as though Pressly, who has served as the club’s closer in each of the past four seasons, may be moving out of that role. Rome notes, however, that both Brown and manager Joe Espada discussed the situation with the 35-year-old veteran in the days leading up to their agreement with Hader. Each said that the conversation with Pressly went well, adding that he’s “all in” for his new role in the club’s bullpen as a premiere set-up option to Hader alongside youngster Bryan Abreu. Pressly posted a solid 3.58 ERA and 3.36 FIP while striking out 27.6% of batters faced last season, while Abreu dominated opposing hitters with a 34.8% strikeout rate and a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances. Adding Hader to the mix figures to give Houston perhaps the most fearsome back-end trio in any bullpen around the league entering the 2024 campaign.
  • Rome also relayed an update on the status of McCullers, who underwent flexor tendon surgery back in June. McCullers has progressed to the point of throwing off flat ground from 80 feet away and noted that he’s feeling good, though when asked about his timetable for return suggested that a feasible timeline could involve him returning sometime during the late summer. With three years remaining on the contract extension the righty signed prior to the 2021 season, the deal hasn’t gone how either side was hoping to this point. While he’s pitched to a strong 3.16 ERA and 3.55 FIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate since the ink dried on the pact, he’s made just 47 starts across the past three seasons and appears ticketed for another season spent primarily on the shelf in 2024. Until McCullers returns to action, the club figures to rely on some combination of Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown, and J.P. France to fill out the rotation alongside Verlander, Valdez, and Javier.

Astros Sign Josh Hader To Five-Year Contract

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The Astros announced they have signed left-hander Josh Hader. It is reportedly a five-year, $95MM contract. The deal has no deferrals, which makes it the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher in terms of present-day value. Edwin Díaz signed a $102MM deal with the Mets prior to last season, setting a new benchmark for a reliever, but there was some deferred money that dropped the present-day value and competitive balance tax calculation to around $93MM.

Josh Hader | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsHader, a CAA Sports client, will earn $19MM annually through the 2028 season. The southpaw can also collect an additional $1MM bonus for winning the Reliever of the Year Award, an honor he has already received three times in his career. The deal contains a full no-trade clause and no options, team or player alike.

On Thursday, Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Astros were “making a push” to sign the five-time All-Star. It came as little surprise that GM Dana Brown was looking to supplement a bullpen that lost several key players to free agency, namely Héctor Neris, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek. In addition, 2023 trade deadline acquisition Kendall Graveman is likely to miss the entire 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. That said, Brown recently downplayed his desire to add another reliever. After the news broke of Graveman’s surgery, the GM told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that the Astros were “still in the market for relievers,” but also said, “We got some internal candidates that we really feel good about.” In a similar vein, he told Rome, “We just may have to get one more body or one of our guys internally will step up.”

On top of that, Brown told reporters during the GM Meetings in November that he didn’t have “a ton” of payroll flexibility to work with. Thus, Astros fans began to brace themselves for a slow offseason, and rumors even began to emerge that the team could trade All-Stars Alex Bregman and Framber Valdez

In hindsight, the executive was clearly keeping his cards close to his chest. After all, signing the top reliever on the market to a record-breaking contract is just about the complete opposite of tightening the purse strings and hoping an internal candidate steps up. Indeed, Hader’s salary brings the Astros over the first luxury tax threshold and dangerously close to the second; according to Roster Resource, their CBT payroll sits at $254.6MM, less than $3MM away from the $257MM threshold. Houston has never paid the luxury tax before, although the team crossed the threshold in 2020 when there were no penalties for doing so.

Because Hader rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres, the Astros will lose their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft, as well as $500,000 in international bonus pool money. However, the extra penalties they could face as Competitive Balance Tax payors won’t kick in until next offseason; if the Astros remain over the CBT threshold throughout 2024 and sign another QO free agent next winter, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks, as well as $1 million in international bonus pool money.

The Astros don’t usually sign free agents with qualifying offers attached to them, just as they don’t usually exceed the CBT threshold. To that end, they don’t often sign $95MM deals. As Rome points out on X, this is the largest free agent contract the club has signed in Jim Crane’s 12-year tenure as owner of the Astros. Evidently, then, Crane and Brown have high hopes for what Hader can bring to the bullpen – and for good reason. The left-hander has long been one of the top relievers in the game. Across seven MLB seasons with the Brewers and Padres, he boasts a 2.50 ERA, 2.27 SIERA, and 165 saves in 190 chances. Since his debut in 2017, no pitcher (min. 5 IP) has struck out batters at a higher rate.

Hader, who turns 30 this April, looked as dominant as ever in 2023, ranking second among qualified NL relievers with a 1.28 ERA. Meanwhile, his Statcast expected ERA ranked third in all of baseball. What’s more, he recorded 33 saves in 61 games, crossing the 30-save threshold for the fourth time in his career. With a hard sinker and mystifying slider, he recorded 85 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings of work.

The presumptive closer will join right-handers Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu at the back of what could be the scariest bullpen in the American League. The Astros ranked fourth in the AL in bullpen ERA last season and first from the trade deadline through the end of the year. Although Houston has parted ways with several key contributors this winter, adding Hader goes a long way toward replenishing what was lost. The three departing relievers, plus Graveman, provided the Astros with 1.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) last season, per FanGraphs. Hader alone was worth 1.7 WAR in 2023 and has averaged 1.94 WAR per 60 games throughout his career. While he cannot cover the workload of four separate pitchers all on his own, he should provide his team with 50-60 valuable innings in the most high-leverage spots. The Astros could still use some more depth to fill out the bullpen, but their back-end trio of Hader, Pressly, and Abreu might be the best one-two-three punch in the game.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the two sides were in agreement on a five-year, $95MM deal with no deferrals. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first relayed the even $19MM salaries, no-trade clause and award bonus. Joel Sherman of The New York Post relayed the $1MM value of that bonus. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported the lack of options or opt-outs.

Joel Kuhnel Elects Free Agency

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Reliever Joel Kuhnel elected free agency this week, according to his MLB.com transaction log. That was his right after being outrighted by the Astros, marking the second time in his career that he cleared outright waivers.

Kuhnel, 29 next month, split last season between the Reds and Houston. He pitched 13 innings over nine MLB appearances, allowing eight runs with five walks and a trio of strikeouts. Kuhnel spent more of the season in Triple-A. He combined for a 6.18 ERA in 43 2/3 innings at the top minor league level between the two organizations. Kuhnel fanned a below-average 15.5% of opponents over that stretch.

While it wasn’t a great showing, he’s only a year removed from soaking up 58 innings of low-leverage relief in Cincinnati. Kuhnel’s 6.36 ERA that year isn’t particularly impressive, but he induced ground-balls at a 52.2% clip. Kuhnel has generally done a solid job keeping the ball on the ground throughout his career behind a mid-90s sinker. He could find a minor league contract from a team seeking bullpen depth.

Astros “Making A Push” To Sign Josh Hader

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The Astros are “making a push” to sign left-hander Josh Hader, per a report from Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The southpaw is represented by CAA Sports.

It hasn’t yet been reported what kind of contract discussions are taking place between the club and Hader’s representatives, but it will undoubtedly involve significant numbers. It was reported earlier this month that Hader was aiming to set a new benchmark for relievers by surpassing the Edwin Díaz deal from just over a year ago. Díaz re-signed with the Mets for $102MM over five years, though deferrals dropped the competitive balance tax value to $93MM. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Hader could indeed set a new record by getting to $110MM over six years.

Those hefty proposals are a reflection of Hader’s incredible work to this point in his career. Over 349 career appearances dating back to his 2017 debut, he has allowed just 2.50 earned runs per nine innings. His 10.2% walk rate is a tad high, but he has punched out 42.2% of batters that have stepped into the box against him. That included a strange blip in 2022 when his ERA jumped to 5.22, but the peripherals were still strong and he righted the ship last year, getting that ERA all the way down to 1.28.

The vast majority of that work has come as a closer, with Hader having racked up at least 33 saves in each of the past four full seasons, as well as 13 in the shortened 2020 campaign. These kinds of elite closers don’t grow on trees. That 42.2% strikeout rate over the past seven years is the highest in baseball among those with at least five innings pitched. Díaz has punched out 40.3% of opponents in his career, though with a better walk rate than Hader and more ground balls.

If the Astros end up sealing the deal with Hader, the details will come out and we will find out how the deal compares to the one Díaz signed with the Mets. It hasn’t been a secret that Houston has been looking to upgrade its bullpen, but it is at least a bit surprising to see them going after the top available free agent. The club has only once pushed their payroll into competitive balance tax territory, and that was in the shortened 2020 season when MLB suspended the tax system amid the pandemic.

That means the franchise still technically hasn’t “paid” the tax, but it seems as though 2024 may be the year. Roster Resource currently estimates that the club’s CBT number is just over $236MM, with this year’s base threshold set for $237MM. That means that adding essentially any money at all would push them over the line. If Hader were to secure the six-year, $110MM deal that MLBTR predicted, that would come with a CBT hit of $18.33MM.

The fact that the club may be willing to finally step onto the other side of that line is perhaps a reflection of their bullpen situation. They lost each of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek to free agency at the end of last year, subtracting three notable arms from their relief mix. General manager Dana Brown has frequently spoken about the need for bullpen upgrades this winter, and the situation got even worse with the recent news that Kendall Graveman will miss the entire 2024 campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery.

The club still has Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu as a strong foundation in the bullpen, but there’s plenty of uncertainty beyond those two. Rafael Montero parlayed a strong 2022 into a three-year, $34.5MM deal with Houston but then posted an ERA of 5.08 last year. Other than swingman Brandon Bielak, they don’t have any other relievers with two years of major league service time.

This week, Brown maintained that the club’s bullpen plans wouldn’t “intensify” due to the Graveman news, but perhaps it has inspired owner Jim Crane to push beyond his usual limits in order to address the relief corps. One pitcher wouldn’t eliminate the concerns around the overall depth, but the trio of Hader, Pressly and Abreu would be one of the most dominant late-inning groups in the sport.

Of course, it’s also possible the club could look to move some other contracts around in order to limbo back under the line, but that would come with its own challenges. There had been some speculation earlier this winter that Framber Valdez could be available for financial reasons, but that seemed to be a bit of wishful thinking coming from rival clubs as opposed to the Astros genuinely looking to move him. The lefty is going to make $12.1MM this year, and has one more season of arbitration control remaining, but trading him would open up a big hole in the rotation that is already going to start the season without Luis García and Lance McCullers Jr. due to injuries.

Beyond Valdez, Graveman has a CBT hit of $8MM but would be hard to move since he’s going to miss the entire season and then become a free agent. Houston would have to include some other talent, likely prospects, in order to make it worth it for another club to take that contract on. McCullers has a CBT hit of $17MM but similar logic would apply. His deal runs through 2026 but his significant health issues in his career and especially in recent years might make it hard for a deal to come together. Montero’s $11.5MM CBT hit over the next two seasons won’t be easily jettisoned after this down year.

Of course, all this is speculative under a deal with Hader is actually completed. There are still no details of what is being discussed or if it’s close to being completed. He has also received reported interest from the Orioles, while clubs like the Yankees, Rangers and Dodgers have been mentioned as speculative fits. Hader rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres so any signing club, whether it’s the Astros or someone else, will be subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly a loss of international bonus pool money as well.

Brown: Graveman Injury Does Not Intensify Astros’ Bullpen Pursuit

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The Astros were already facing the loss of relievers Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek via free agency, and they’ll now also be without righty Kendall Graveman for the 2024 season after he underwent shoulder surgery. The team announced Graveman’s operation earlier today, declining to delve into specifics, but subtracting him from the ’pen equation leaves Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu and rebound hopeful Rafael Montero as the only Houston relievers with even three years of MLB service. The vast majority of Houston’s bullpen options have under one year of MLB service time.

“We’ve been focused on the (bullpen) anyway, this doesn’t intensify it,” general manager Dana Brown tells Chandler Rome of The Athletic. “We just may have to get one more body or one of our guys internally will step up.” Brown made similar comments to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, telling him that the Astros have some in-house relief options “that we really feel good about,” though the GM also conceded that he’s still in the market to bring in an additional bullpen arm from outside the organization.

The free agent market for relievers has dried up over the past couple months. As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, there have been 34 relief pitchers signed to Major League contracts this winter. None have signed with Houston. Brown acknowledged to Rome that he’d had talks with the representatives for all of Neris, Maton and Stanek but wouldn’t specify much beyond the fact that he’s “more in the ballpark” with one of Neris/Maton than the other. Rome reported last week that the Astros haven’t pursued Maton aggressively, and he doubled down on that in today’s report.

While many of the top relievers are already off the board, there are still plenty of experienced names from which to choose if Houston is intent on adding a free agent. The ’Stros almost certainly aren’t going to spend at the necessary levels to add top-tier names like Josh Hader and Robert Stephenson, but more affordable options still on the market include Ryan Brasier, John Brebbia, Michael Fulmer, Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino and Wandy Peralta — to name just a few.

“If we can go get one more [reliever] and use some of the candidates in-house, we feel like we’ll be good,” Brown replied when asked by McTaggart about adding another bullpen arm.

One of the primary questions for the ’Stros will be one of finances. To this point, the only free agent they’ve signed to a big league deal this winter is backup catcher Victor Caratini. That signing placed Houston within $1MM of the $237MM luxury-tax threshold, per Roster Resource. Owner Jim Crane hasn’t publicly declared any mandate to remain shy of that barrier, but the Astros’ lack of activity this winter, coupled with trade rumblings regarding some of their more prominent but expensive players (e.g. Framber Valdez) have combined to fuel speculation about a desire to avoid paying the tax. Houston has crossed the tax threshold only once under Crane’s ownership.

Kendall Graveman Expected To Miss 2024 Season Following Shoulder Surgery

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Astros right-hander Kendall Graveman underwent shoulder surgery last week and is expected to miss the 2024 season as a result, the team announced Tuesday. The team did not specify the nature of the procedure.

Graveman, 33, missed the 2023 postseason due to shoulder troubles. Doctors recommended a rest-and-rehab approach to the injury, and that proceeded well enough for the right-hander to begin throwing from flat ground as he ramped up for spring training. However, Graveman experienced renewed discomfort at some point upon resuming a throwing a program, leading to last week’s surgery.

Houston reacquired Graveman in a deadline trade that sent young catcher Korey Lee back to Chicago. The veteran Graveman had thrived with the Astros down the stretch in 2021 before signing as three-year, $24MM contract with the ChiSox in free agency. He returned to Minute Maid Park and posted a 2.42 ERA over 22 1/3 innings down the stretch. The performance wasn’t without its red flags, however; Graveman maintained a strong 25% strikeout rate but also posted an uncharacteristic 16.7% walk rate following the trade. Whether that was just an anomaly in a relatively small sample of an indicator that he wasn’t pitching at 100% can’t be fully known, but the end result is the same regardless of when the shoulder troubles initially became apparent.

The loss of Graveman is significant for the Astros. His acquisition was expected to fill a key role both in the 2023 and 2024 bullpen, but their relief corps will now be depleted further than anticipated. Houston has already seen righties Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton become free agents this winter. With Graveman shelved, the setup bridge to closer Ryan Pressly becomes murkier. Bryan Abreu was brilliant in 2023 for a second straight season, but the rest of the setup corps is suspect.

Rafael Montero is entering the second season of a three-year, $34.5MM contract that looks regrettable after he limped to a 5.08 ERA in 67 1/3 frames during year one of the deal. The veteran righty did improve in the season’s second half, but it clearly wasn’t the year owner Jim Crane envisioned when signing Montero early last offseason before he had a general manager in place to take over for James Click.

Other setup options on the 40-man roster lack an established MLB track record. Each of Ronel Blanco, Bennett Sousa, Seth Martinez, Dylan Coleman, Oliver Ortega and Parker Mushinski has some MLB experience, but there are no proven options among the bunch.

For an Astros club that has seemingly been operating on a tight budget this winter, the Graveman injury is all the more problematic. General manager Dana Brown candidly acknowledged earlier in the offseason that he wasn’t working with much payroll flexiblity.

Graveman is set to earn an $8MM salary this coming season, and that money will still count against the team’s luxury ledger. Houston is right up against the luxury-tax threshold and ostensibly prefers not to cross that line. Perhaps that’ll push the team more toward the trade market if the plan to is to bring in some bullpen help from outside the organization, but an $8MM hit for a player who likely won’t pitch at all in 2024 is an unwelcome development for a front office that’s already been dealing with budgetary restrictions.

West Notes: Astros, Padres, Dodgers

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The Astros have made it clear that adding to their relief corps is a priority this winter, with interest in the likes of Robert Stephenson as well as Jordan Hicks before the latter signed with the Giants last week. One avenue the club doesn’t appear to be exploring, at least for the moment, is a reunion with right-hander Phil Maton. According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic, the Astros haven’t showed much interest in Maton since the righty departed for free agency back in November, though Rome notes that “shouldn’t entirely dismiss” the possibility of a reunion later in the offseason.

Maton, 31 in March, enjoyed something of a breakout season in Houston during the 2023 campaign with a 3.00 ERA and 3.74 FIP in 66 innings of work. Maton struck out a solid 27% of batters faced while walking 9.1% and generating grounders at a 42.9% clip. Solid as that season was, however, Maton lacks the long-term track record in high-leverage situations of other relief arms on the market. Dating back to the 2020 season, Maton has pitched to a 3.93 ERA (106 ERA+) and 3.69 FIP in 223 appearances, painting him as more of a quality middle relief option than a player who can be relied upon in the late innings.

Despite the relatively short track record of late inning success, the revelation that the Astros may not be interested in retaining Maton is something of a surprise. After all, a report last month indicated the sides had been in contact, and Houston’s publicly-acknowledged payroll limitations could price them out of the market for players like Stephenson, who MLBTR predicted would land a four-year $36MM deal this winter or even fellow righty Hector Neris, who dominated to a 1.71 ERA in 71 appearances with the Astros last season and has recently seen his market begin to pick up.

With Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu forming a solid duo at the back of Houston’s bullpen, re-signing Maton to cover the middle innings would be a way to help bolster the club’s depth without breaking the bank. If the Astros do prove to be uninterested in bringing back Maton, the likes of David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, and Matt Moore could be other relatively cost-effective options at the club’s disposal.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • As the Padres look to rebuild their lineup after shipping Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Bronx last month, they’ve investigated a variety of options to complement right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. on the outfield grass next year. One such option, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, was center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. Lin adds that while San Diego was interested in the veteran center fielder’s services prior to him signing with the Blue Jays on a one-year deal, it’s unlikely the club would have been willing to match the $10.5MM guarantee Toronto offered Kiermaier to remain up north. That reluctance on the part of San Diego could be a bad sign for the club’s reported interest in Michael A. Taylor as the 32-year-old sports a similar profile to both Kiermaier and fellow center fielder Harrison Bader, who signed an identical contract to Kiermaier with the Mets shortly after the new year. Should Taylor prove to be out of the club’s price range, the team could look to the trade market in its search for a center fielder or explore lower-tier options like Adam Duvall or Aaron Hicks.
  • The Dodgers have built a reputation for getting the most out of their pitchers under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, ranging from their previous work with Alex Wood in the mid-2010s to their recent success in turning Evan Phillips into a quality closer since he joined the organization in 2021. As discussed by Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, the club’s strong pitching infrastructure has been key to luring free agent pitchers such as Tyler Anderson and Noah Syndergaard to the club in recent years. While the system faltered somewhat in 2023 as the team posted middle-of-the-pack numbers from the mound, DiGiovanna suggests that the club’s infrastructure played a role in luring high-octane arms like those of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers this winter. Now that the club has spent more than $1 billion to lock that star-studded trio up long term, they’ll surely look to optimize the performance of those front-of-the-rotation pieces much as they did reclamation projects in previous seasons.

Astros, Framber Valdez Avoid Arbitration

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The Astros and left-hander Framber Valdez have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $12.1MM salary for the 2024 season, according to Chandler Rome of The Athletic.

Valdez, 30, took something of a step back last year from a standout 2022 campaign that saw the southpaw post a 2.82 ERA while leading the AL with 201 1/3 frames en route to a top 5 finish in AL Cy Young award voting. Nonetheless, Valdez posted strong numbers in 2023 with a 3.45 ERA that was 22% better than league average by measure of ERA+ in 198 innings of work. That solid performance was backed up by a 3.50 FIP that largely matches his top-level run prevention numbers. Looking under the hood, Valdez posted a 54.2% groundball rate that, while well above average, was actually a career low for the lefty, who generated grounders at a 66.2% clip for his career entering 2023. That being said, he countered the increased contact in the air with the best strikeout (24.8%) and walk (7.1%) rates of any 162-game season in his career.

It’s Valdez’s third trip through arbitration, though as a Super Two player the left-hander will be eligible for arbitration a fourth and final time in 2025. The $12.1MM salary for 2024 is an exact match for the projection put forth by MLBTR contributor Matt Swatz back in October. The deal continues the streak of the sides avoiding arbitration throughout Valdez’s career. Last season, the sides avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $6.8MM salary for 2023, while the sides settled on a $3MM salary for the 2022 campaign in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Houston attempted to work out a long-term extension with the left-hander last spring, though the sides ultimately did not come together on a deal. While it’s possible the sides could look to reopen those negotiations in the coming weeks, rumors swirled last month that the Astros were listening to offers on the left-hander from at least half a dozen clubs. Between those trade rumors and the impending free agencies of second baseman Jose Altuve and third baseman Alex Bregman, both of whom GM Dana Brown has expressed interest in extending as recently as November, it seems reasonable to think any talks of a longer term arrangement with Valdez could be on hold for the time being. In the meantime, Valdez figures to be paired with veteran ace Justin Verlander at the front of Houston’s rotation with the likes of Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, J.P. France, and Hunter Brown also in the mix for spots in the club’s Opening Day rotation.

Astros, Kyle Tucker Avoid Arbitration

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The Astros and Kyle Tucker have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $12MM salary for 2024, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The outfielder is a client of Excel Sports Management.

Tucker, 27 next week, is coming off another excellent season at the plate. He hit 29 home runs, just one beneath the even 30 he hit in each of the previous two campaigns. He also drew walks in 11.9% of plate appearances while striking out just 13.6% of the time. For reference, the major league averages in those categories were 8.6% and 22.7% in 2023. Tucker’s .284/.369/.517 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 140, indicating he was 40% above league average.

His defensive metrics slipped a bit in 2023 but he’s been solidly above average in his career overall. On the basepaths, he stole 30 bases last year, setting a new career high. He swiped 14 bags in 2021 and then 25 the year after.

Tucker first qualified for arbitration last offseason and went to a hearing with the Astros. He filed at $7.5MM but the arbiters opted for the club’s $5MM salary instead. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a jump to $12.6MM but he has settled for a salary just beneath that. He will be eligible for another raise in 2025 before he’s slated to reach free agency.

He and the Astros have had some extension talks in the past but the two sides didn’t appear to make much traction. Regardless, he’ll head into 2024 as part of an outfield that’s also slated to feature Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, with Yordan Álvarez perhaps spending some time there as well when he’s not serving as the designated hitter.

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