Poll: Choose Your Franchise Catcher
Although potential Hall of Famers Buster Posey and Yadier Molina are among the most decorated catchers in baseball history, it appears the two 30-somethings have given way to a new guard at the position. J.T. Realmuto, Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras stand out as the most valuable behind-the-plate building blocks in today’s game, owing to performance, age and affordable control. The Brewers’ Yasmani Grandal also belongs in the current class of elite backstops, but the fact that he’s 30 years old, expensive and only signed through this season works against him in comparison to Realmuto, Contreras and Sanchez.
Among those three, the longest big league track record belongs to the Phillies’ Realmuto, who’s in his age-28 season. The athletic Realmuto broke out with the Marlins in 2016 and proceeded to rack up 11.3 fWAR through last year, trailing only Posey and Grandal at his position. He’s fresh off back-to-back 4.0-fWAR seasons and is on a similar pace in his first year as a Phillie.
So far in his new digs, Realmuto has accounted for 2.0 fWAR through 208 plate appearances. While Realmuto’s offensive production has dropped from where it was over the previous three seasons (115 wRC+), his 102 wRC+ remains far above average for his position (89). He’s also an all-world defensive player who possesses far more speed than you’d expect a catcher to have. If there’s one check against Realmuto, it’s that he’s only under control for another season after this one, in which he’s earning $5.9MM.
No full-time catcher has fared better at the plate this season than the hard-hitting Sanchez, whose 154 wRC+ ranks 18th among all players with at least 100 PA. The 26-year-old has mashed 17 home runs, good for a fifth-place tie, to put an uninspiring 2018 behind him. Sanchez combined for 7.5 fWAR from 2016-17, his first two seasons, but fell to 1.7 in ’18 and sits well behind Realmuto this season (1.2). Although Sanchez has a big arm, he’s not in Realmuto’s stratosphere as an overall defender. However, Sanchez is making barely over the league minimum this year and comes with three more seasons of control via arbitration.
Contreras, who turned 27 on May 13, has been a revelation at the plate since he debuted in 2016. Dating back to then, Contreras’ 119 wRC+ ranks second among backstops (only Sanchez’s 128 has been better), while his 7.5 fWAR is eighth. He’s at 152 and 1.7 in those categories this year, having swatted 12 homers and gotten on base at a 40 percent clip. Although Contreras has not gotten rave reviews behind the plate this season or for most of his career, his offense, age and affordability are all huge pluses. Like Sanchez, he’s in his final pre-arb season and controllable through 2022.
Considering all of the above factors, which of these three catchers would you want to build a team around?
(poll link for app users)
Choose Your Franchise Catcher
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J.T. Realmuto 40% (5,316)
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Gary Sanchez 31% (4,139)
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Willson Contreras 29% (3,947)
Total votes: 13,402
The Importance Of Scott Kingery
In a spirited attempt to repair their position player group and snap a seven-year playoff drought, the Phillies added four new regulars to their lineup during the offseason. The big-ticket acquisitions of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura left the club with just four holdovers. Of the returning quartet, only first baseman Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have produced in 2019. On the other hand, this has been a horrid year for third baseman Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera, who didn’t exactly comprise a confidence-inspiring pair entering the campaign.
The 26-year-old Franco broke into the league in earnest in 2015, when he looked like a long-term core piece in the making during an 80-game, 335-plate appearance debut. Since then, though, success has been hard to come by for Franco. He turned in an 0-for-4 performance in a loss to the Cardinals on Thursday, dropping his batting line to an inept .215/.281/.393 through 210 tries this year. Franco’s 63 wRC+ ranks as the majors’ eighth-worst mark among 167 qualifying hitters.
While 2019 has gone poorly for Franco, it has been even worse for Herrera. Not only has Herrera failed on the field, where he has hit .222/.268/.341 (67 wRC+) in 139 trips to the plate, but he’s amid a troubling situation off it. The league placed Herrera on administrative leave Tuesday after he was arrested Monday on a charge of simple assault relating to a domestic violence incident.
It’s too early to jump to conclusions on Herrera’s arrest at this point, but we can judge him on what he has done between the lines. The fact is the 27-year-old’s production has been a letdown since 2018. Before then, he was a quality player who earned a five-year, $30.5MM extension from the franchise in 2016.
The Phillies have given Franco and Herrera plenty of rope so far in their careers, but they’re looking less and less like answers at their respective positions. And Philadelphia is no longer a rebuilding team – it’s in first place in the NL East, which figures to be a multi-team dogfight through September – meaning it must consider making moves to improve at third and in center. Luckily for the club, it may have an in-house solution for one of those spots in utility player Scott Kingery.
The 25-year-old Kingery opened the season as a reserve, but he has taken on a prominent role rotating between the hot corner and center since he returned from a month-long stay on the injured list. Going back to his May 19 activation, Kingery has started nine of the Phillies’ 11 games. Now, if he proves capable of performing like a legit full-timer, he’d take some of the pressure off executives Matt Klentak and Andy MacPhail heading into the July 31 trade deadline.
Philadelphia believes in Kingery, evidenced by the six-year, $24MM guarantee it gave him in March 2018. Kingery was a top 100 prospect at that point, but he had never even taken a major league at-bat. That inexperience was on display during a rough rookie season for Kingery, who struggled to a .226/.267/.338 line (62 wRC+) with 126 strikeouts against 24 walks in 484 tries.
So far, the sophomore version of Kingery is trumping his Year 1 numbers through 72 PA. However, his .328/.375/.567 slash (148 wRC+) looks as if it’s built on a house of cards. Having drawn a meager three walks against 20 strikeouts, Kingery is getting by on a sure-to-plummet .432 batting average on balls in play and a power surge that also looks unlikely to last. With three homers, Kingery’s fly balls are leaving the yard at an 18.8 percent rate – a figure he only approached once in the minors (in 2017). As a Double-A player that season, Kingery recorded a .295 ISO. Coming into this year, that was the only time Kingery had even neared a .200 ISO, let alone blown by it. With that in mind, don’t bet on Kingery maintaining his current ISO (.239).
Although there are reasons for pessimism regarding Kingery’s hot start, that’s not to say he can’t be a valuable regular for the Phillies now or in the future. It would be a colossal boon for the club if it happened immediately, considering its remade offense has been closer to middle of the pack than great this season. That’s largely because of Franco, Herrera and corner outfielder Nick Williams, who have combined for minus-1.1 fWAR in 414 PA. The Phillies can’t count on those three – nor can they expect a breakthrough from unproven outfielder Roman Quinn, 26, or McCutchen to man his old stomping grounds in center consistently – leaving the onus on Kingery to assert himself in a full-time role. If Kingery falls on his face, the Phillies may have to deal with the burden of finding two new regulars leading up to the deadline.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Injuries Mounting In Phillies’ Bullpen
By most measures, the 2019 campaign has been a very good one for the Phillies so far. The team is out to a 33-22 start, giving them a 3.5-game lead over the Braves in the National League East. Neither their lineup nor their pitching staff has been dominant, but the Phils’ +35 run differential is easily the best in their division. They’ve been a solid team — albeit in a division that’s been less competitive than many pundits anticipated prior to the season thanks to an awful start by the Nationals and a lackluster start from the Mets.
But the Phillies also entered the final week of May with a long list of injuries in the bullpen, and it’s only gotten worse over the past 24 hours. Right-hander Victor Arano, who has been out since mid April due to inflammation in his right elbow, underwent arthroscopic surgery yesterday, as NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury tweeted. Meanwhile, the team announced that lefty Adam Morgan, who is in the midst of the best season of his career, has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a forearm strain.
There’s no clear timeline for the return of either hurler, though the Phillies should issue an update on Arano’s status in the near future. He’s not a household name by any means, but the 24-year-old has looked every bit the part of a big league reliever since breaking into the Majors in 2017. Through his first 74 2/3 innings, Arano owns a 2.65 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. He’s allowed just seven homers in that time while posting gaudy swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates (16.6 percent and 36.1 percent, respectively).
Morgan, meanwhile, sports a 1.96 ERA through 18 1/3 innings in 2019. The 29-year-old former starter has an 18-to-5 K/BB ratio in that time and has held lefties to a .154/.313/.231 average while limiting righties to an even more putrid .114/.162/.301 slash.
That pair of injury updates comes in addition to ongoing absences for David Robertson (flexor strain), Pat Neshek (shoulder strain), Edubray Ramos (biceps tendinitis) and Tommy Hunter (flexor strain). Philadelphia has nearly an entire MLB-caliber bullpen on the injured list at present, and none of the bunch is even out on a minor league rehab assignment.
Unsurprisingly, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark tweets that the Phillies are likely to “aggressively” pursue bullpen upgrades following next week’s MLB draft. But while that might stoke some renewed speculation about a possible match with Craig Kimbrel, Stark also downplayed that possibility. Similarly, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki suggests that a match between the Phillies and Kimbrel is still unlikely if Kimbrel is hoping to secure a multi-year deal. By all accounts, that’s the free-agent closer’s goal once he’s shed the burden of draft-pick compensation, so it doesn’t seem wise to pencil Kimbrel into the back of Gabe Kapler‘s bullpen anytime soon.
Early June will still be too soon for some clubs to determine whether they’re full-on sellers, but there will be several clubs that have already accepted that fate — many of whom have some intriguing bullpen options to market. The Giants (Will Smith, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson), Tigers (Shane Greene) and Blue Jays (old friend Ken Giles?) are among the likely sellers of some high-end bullpen options, and none from that bunch has any designs on contending in their respective divisions at this juncture of the season. Specific targets will likely emerge as the Phils (and other teams) shift their focus beyond the draft, but they stand out as an obvious candidate to be among the game’s early buyers this year.
Odubel Herrera Placed On Administrative Leave After Arrest
11:34am: Herrera has been placed on administrative leave, Gelb tweets.
10:49am: Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera was arrested last night in Atlantic City, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. He was released after being charged with simple assault relating to a domestic violence incident, Matt Gelb of The Athletic adds on Twitter.
Herrera is said to have been arrested after an incident involving a 20-year-old woman believed to be his girlfriend. She “had visible signs of injury to her arms and neck” due to the alleged assault, according to the police report obtained by Gelb.
It is disturbing and disheartening to learn of another alleged perpetration of domestic violence from a MLB player. Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias was arrested recently and is also facing criminal charges. Numerous other players have been suspended in recent years under the MLB-MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy.
Given the reported facts, it seems all but certain that Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred will exercise his authority to place the 27-year-old Herrera on administrative leave. The policy authorizes the commissioner to place players on paid leave for one week at a time during the pendency of an investigation.
The Phillies had an off day yesterday and are scheduled to begin a home series today. If Herrera is placed on administrative leave, the club would be able to bring up a replacement player this evening.
Where things go from that point remains to be seen. In situations in which the league has been able to acquire evidence to support the possibility of an action that violates the policy, it has applied successive leave periods to keep a player out of action while final punishment is assessed. But that is not always the course. Urias was reinstated one week after his arrest while the league continues its investigation.
Phillies Reportedly Hoping To Bolster Bench
The Phillies are in the market for a lefty-swinging hitter with power who’s open to a bench role, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal suggests the Phillies will look to add a player of that ilk in advance of the July 31 trade deadline (video link).
Despite the umpteen headline-worthy offensive additions the Phillies made over the winter, their attack has been closer to average than outstanding thus far. They rank seventh in the National League in runs and eighth in wRC+, owing in part to a lack of balance. With Bryce Harper, Cesar Hernandez and the struggling Odubel Herrera as the Phillies’ only lefty-capable notables, the team sits 17th in the majors in both wRC+ and OPS against right-handed pitchers.
Even though the Phillies’ offense hasn’t been a juggernaut, the club’s still 31-22 and leading the NL East by a game and a half. They’ll be in the market for upgrades approaching the deadline as a result, with the bench being one area they could potentially bolster. Philadelphia’s only a year removed from adding a pair of lefty-hitting power options to its roster around the deadline, as it acquired Justin Bour and Asdrubal Cabrera in separate trades. Those two didn’t help Philly to a playoff berth, however, and they’re now with other organizations.
This time around, Rosenthal names Nationals first baseman/outfielder Matt Adams as a player who matches what the Phillies are seeking. Whether the division-rival Nationals will ultimately move Adams is up in the air, though, considering they’ve played better of late and could still charge toward contention. This is merely speculation, but Jay Bruce (Mariners), Curtis Granderson and Neil Walker (Marlins), Yonder Alonso (White Sox) and Lucas Duda (Royals) stand out as lefty-capable hitters with some pop who could land on the Phillies’ radar in the next couple months. None of those veterans’ teams are in contention, meaning they’re all logical trade chips. Bruce and Walker are the only members of the group who have notched respectable overall production at the plate this season, though the revered Granderson has shown recent signs of life after a weeks-long slumber.
Phillies Place Pat Neshek On 10-Day Injured List
TODAY: Neshek is dealing with rotator cuff inflammation, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen tweets. Neshek will “be out for a little while,” though the team doesn’t believe the injury will threaten his season.
SATURDAY: Phillies reliever Pat Neshek is expected to be placed on the 10-day injured list, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters including Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (Twitter link). He is dealing with shoulder soreness.
The specifics of the malady aren’t clear, but caution is typically the wisest course when that particular joint is involved. Neshek, 38, had an excellent record of durability before running into some health issues last year.
It’s hard not to notice that the veteran hurler has had a few rough outings of late. In particular, he allowed three runs and two long balls in his latest appearance, bumping his season-long ERA from 3.24 to 4.67.
There have been some changes in the underlying numbers for Neshek, though it’s hard to know precisely what they mean in such a short sample. Neshek has only nine strikeouts on the year, but he has also allowed only a single walk in his 17 1/3 innings. His swinging-strike rate has dipped to 8.9%, markedly lower than his recent levels. And the typically flyball heavy sidearmer has drawn more grounders than usual, even while allowing homers at a greater rate (16.0% HR/FB) than ever before.
Phillies Move Vince Velasquez To Bullpen, Recall Pivetta
The Phillies are tinkering with their starting rotation, recalling Nick Pivetta, who will reclaim his spot in the rotation and is slated to start Tuesday’s game against the Cardinals, tweets Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer. Meanwhile, right-hander Vince Velasquez will transition to a full-time bullpen role moving forward.
Velasquez, who boasts impressive strikeout stuff, has long been mentioned as a candidate to work out of the bullpen, and now we will have a chance to see just how his stuff plays in abbreviated outings in relief. After an impressive two-inning performance on Friday in which he struck out four batters, the Phils will give the 26-year-old Velasquez an extended look out of the bullpen. Velasquez certainly fits the prototype for converted relievers: for his career, the right-hander averages more than one strikeout per inning pitched, but that talent has thus far translated to a mediocre 4.52 career ERA. This season, walks and home runs have emerged as an issue, surrendering 1.9 HR/9 to go with 4.5 BB/9.
Taking his spot in the starting rotation will be Pivetta, who earned himself a short stint in the minor leagues after a frustrating start to his 2019, a year in which he was supposed to break out. Needless to say, there’s still time for Pivetta, who has long tantalized fans with elite pure stuff, to reverse his early-season misfortune and make good on his potential. If his six minor-league starts are any indicator of what’s to come, his raw stuff is still there: the 26-year-old struck out 50 batters in 37 Triple-A innings, good for a ratio of 12.2 K/9. By and large, though, it has been the long ball that has plagued Pivetta in 2019, having allowed 2.5 per nine innings pitched, an average that must come down if he’s to return to the form that he flashed last season.
An improved version of Pivetta would certainly be welcomed by the Phillies, who have received mixed results from their starting rotation, received good production from Zach Eflin, though Aaron Nola has yet to perform like the ace of last year’s staff. At the same time, experimenting with Velasquez in the bullpen could unlock something that prevented him from reaching his full potential as a starter. If something clicks, the Phillies could have themselves a versatile multi-inning threat, a role that surely is of considerable value for a contending team.
Phillies Move David Robertson To 60-Day IL
- The Phillies moved reliever David Robertson from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day version, clearing space for fellow righty J.D. Hammer‘s promotion. Robertson went to the IL on April 15, so this shift means he’ll be out until at least mid-June. While Robertson was one of the Phillies’ many headline-grabbing additions in the offseason, when they signed him to a two-year, $23MM contract, a flexor strain has helped prevent him from making a positive impact. Across the 6 2/3 innings Robertson has thrown this season, the 34-year-old has only mustered a 5.40 ERA with matching strikeout and walk rates (8.10 per nine).
J.D. Hammer Recalled
With sidearmer Pat Neshek headed to the injured list, the Phillies have selected the contract of J.D. Hammer to take his place, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Breen also points out a fun bit of trivia regarding these two, as this is actually the second time Neshak has cleared out for Hammer in Philly. Hammer first came to the Phillies (along with two others) in a 2017 deadline deal that sent Neshek from the Phillies to the Rockies (Twitter links). Hammer has a 1.61 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A so far this season, though most of his time has been in Reading. In fact, Hammer is now primed to make his major league debut as just one appearance in Triple-A.
Phillies Weighing Rotation Change
As the Phillies seek to map out a pitching plan that keeps them on top of the National League East, they’re preparing for a rotation change. The team is presently deciding whether to return Nick Pivetta or Vince Velasquez to the starting five in time to take the ball next Tuesday, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters including Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter).
Both of those talented but uneven hurlers opened the year in the rotation, but the ground has shifted in the two months since. Pivetta was hit hard in four starts and ended up being optioned back down to figure things out. Velasquez has been shelved with a forearm strain for a few weeks.
In their absence, the Phillies brought in some new arms. Jerad Eickhoff came first; he has firmly laid claim to a job. The same can’t be said of Cole Irvin, who’ll now be bumped out of the group of five. Irvin was bombed in his third start of the year and is likely ticketed for a trip back to Triple-A on optional assignment.
In the aggregate, there’s one spot up for grabs. Pivetta’s claim to the role is simple: he has racked up fifty strikeouts and allowed just 22 hits in 37 Triple-A frames. The stuff is there. He’s also still not commanding the ball perfectly, as evidenced by his twenty walks in that same stretch against minor-league competition. Pivetta’s latest start wasn’t his sharpest effort, as Marc Narducci of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported.
Wandering command has also been an issue for Velasquez. He’s occasionally dominant but has never strung together an exceptional overall season. Velasquez owns a 3.86 ERA in 30 1/3 innings this year, but has been awfully homer- and walk-prone (with seven of the former and 15 of the latter).
Ultimately, both pitchers are sure to have an impact at the MLB level this year (presuming good health, at least). Perhaps both could ultimately be utilized in multi-inning roles other than those of a traditional starter, whether in tandem with one another or in concert with other pitchers. There are plenty of creative possibilities.
For the time being, the Phils need to figure out which pitcher can best help the team rack up the wins it needs to fend off the divisional competition, all while assessing how best the roster can be improved in the summer trade market. Unless Pivetta or Velazquez takes the job and runs with it, there could be more tinkering to come.