Details, Reactions And Effects: The David Price Deal
Here’s a roundup of reactions to and news about David Price‘s seven-year, $217MM pact with the Red Sox.
- The signing came together partly as a result of maneuvering regarding Price’s fellow free agent starting pitcher Zack Greinke, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes (Twitter links). The Dodgers and Giants wanted Greinke to make a decision, while Greinke wanted to know where the Red Sox stood. The Sox, who had increased their offer to Price yesterday, wanted him to come to a decision so they knew whether to turn their attention to Greinke or possibly others.
- The Cardinals made the second-best offer to Price, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. Their seven-year offer was, however, worth $30MM less than that of the Red Sox. The Cubs also met with Price, but did not extend an actual offer.
- The Red Sox’ willingness to offer a deal with no deferred money helped persuade Price to sign quickly, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. (Of course, it must have also helped that the Red Sox’ offer was so much more lucrative than anyone else’s.) Price’s contract contrasts with the seven-year, $210MM deal Max Scherzer got last offseason, for example — although the dollar figures appear similar, Scherzer’s deal contains plenty of deferred compensation that reduces the deal’s present-day value. (Price’s deal also includes an opt-out after three years, while Scherzer’s does not.)
- Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says the team is likely done making significant moves, reports John Tomase of WEEI.com. “We’ll be open-minded going into the Winter Meetings,” Dombrowski says. “We’ll see what happens over the next few days leading into that, but be in a position that I think our major moves are done. But when you go to the Winter Meetings, you can never tell what happens.” In addition to reaching an agreement with Price this offseason, the Red Sox have, of course, traded for closer Craig Kimbrel and signed outfielder Chris Young.
- Like Nightengale, Rosenthal also writes that Boston “blew away the field” with their offer. Rosenthal also notes that Price’s successes after being traded from the Rays to the Tigers and then the Blue Jays might have helped convince former Tigers exec Dombrowski that Price could succeed in a tough market.
- Price’s 2016 salary will add to a Sox payroll that appears likely to result in a large luxury tax penalty, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. They could end up with a $215MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, which would result in a bill of about $9MM — 30% of the amount they spend over the $189MM threshold.
- The $31MM average annual value of Price’s contract isn’t a bad one for a large-payroll team like the Red Sox, and Price fits the Sox’ needs perfectly, writes ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only). Price immediately becomes by far the Red Sox’ best starter, and his combination of relative youth and good offspeed stuff suggests that he should age relatively gracefully in the next several seasons. Price’s addition should also help the team move Joe Kelly to a relief role for which he’s well suited. And signing Price, rather than, say, Greinke helps the Red Sox keep the 12th overall pick in next year’s draft, since Price wasn’t eligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded at midseason.
- Price is a true ace, but the Red Sox are taking on lots of risk with his contract, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes. Lengthy deals for pitchers frequently turn out to be troublesome, and if Price doesn’t take advantage of his opt-out, the last four years of his contract could become a headache. Also, Svrluga writes, Price (who has a 5.12 career ERA in 63 1/3 playoff innings) still must prove he can step up in the postseason.
Greinke Likely To Decide Between Giants, Dodgers This Week
DEC. 2: ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that while Greinke’s preference is a six-year deal at an AAV north of Price, he’s also open to a five-year pact at a considerably higher AAV than he’d receive on a six-year contract.
DEC. 111:15pm: Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that a source close to the situation says Greinke will decide within the next 48 hours. Bowden adds that he expects Greinke to land a six-year deal worth $32MM annually, which would mean a $192MM total investment.
5:08pm: News of David Price‘s deal with the Red Sox is still fresh in the air, but another major decision may be relatively close, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that Zack Greinke could decide on his next contract “soon,” labeling it a matter of Dodgers vs. Giants, with a five- to six-year deal being the expectation. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds (Twitter link) that a Greinke decision is expected this week, noting that he, too, hears the Dodgers and Giants stand alone as the finalists. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Greinke is seeking an AAV that exceeds Price, so he could come in at $31.5MM to $32MM annually.
Greinke, like Price, finished runner-up in his league’s Cy Young voting this season despite the best single-season ERA mark by a qualified pitcher since Greg Maddux in 1995. He’s spent the past three seasons in L.A., working to a combined 2.30 ERA across 602 2/3 innings. Recently, Crasnick reported that the market for Greinke was “quietly heating up,” listing San Francisco and Los Angeles as the primary teams that were said to be seeking clarity in their pursuit of Greinke.
The fact that two division rivals are the top suitors for Greinke must be music to the ears of both the pitchers and his representatives at Excel Sports Management. However many wins either teams feels that Greinke can add to their future totals, the view could be made that failing to sign him will instead add those wins to the closest rival’s total, possibly increasing each team’s willingness to spend.
Both clubs are known to be seriously interested in Greinke, but Dodgers ownership partner Magic Johnson told Yahoo’s Tim Brown today that Greinke was the team’s “No. 1 priority” this offseason (Twitter link).
Free Agent Notes: Fowler, Zobrist, Leake, Venable, Relievers
The Mets have some level of interest in Dexter Fowler as a center field option, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). However, Ben Zobrist remains the team’s top priority in free agency. Recent reports have indicated that the Mets won’t go to four years on Zobrist, and that will probably need to change in order to sign him, as Yahoo’s Jeff Passan said last night the price tag is currently believed to be around $60MM over four years. Should the Mets lose out on Zobrist, they could look to upgrade in center field, where Juan Lagares had a down season in 2015 — the first of a four-year contract extension. Lagares’ contract is affordable enough that he could be moved to a reserve role without it being an overpay.
A few more notes from around the free-agent market…
- ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick delivers a slew of news pertaining to Zobrist (Twitter links 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Per Crasnick, the Nationals, Giants and Dodgers are all in the mix for Zobrist as well. The Cubs and Cardinals like Zobrist but don’t have as many at-bats to offer as the other clubs. The Royals are probably priced out on Zobrist, and while the Angels inquired earlier this offseason, there’s been no recent discussion between the two sides. Additionally, Zobrist’s preference is to play for a contender, making the Braves a tough fit even though they do have some level of interest. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press hears (Twitter link) that about 11 clubs are in the mix for Zobrist, to some extent, but the Twins aren’t among them (which is no surprise given their glut of outfielders and Brian Dozier‘s presence at second base).
- Crasnick hears the same that Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has recently suggested — that having fallen short on David Price, the Cardinals could turn their attention to Mike Leake on the free agent market. Leake won’t cost near the same amount that the Cardinals were willing to go on Price, but he’d be a strong option to replace the injured Lance Lynn in their rotation in 2016 and would provide value for another four years or so beyond that point.
- Also from Crasnick, both the Indians and Orioles have expressed interest in free-agent outfielder Will Venable. While the 32-year-old Venable is coming off a down season split between San Diego and Texas, he has historically been a productive bat for the Friars and has posted solid numbers away from the spacious Petco Park over the life of his career. Venable is also capable of playing all three outfield positions.
- A pair of notes on relievers: Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald hears that the Red Sox are no longer in the market for right-hander Joakim Soria (Twitter link). Having spent an enormous amount in terms of dollars and prospects to acquire Price and Craig Kimbrel, it’s perhaps logical that the Sox wouldn’t spend so heavily. Additionally, Crasnick spoke to an agent who said that the Blue Jays are looking for an impact (Twitter link), power arm for their bullpen but are trying to land such a piece for “dollar store prices,” suggesting that the team isn’t keen on shelling out a significant multi-year deal.
Braves Listening On Shelby Miller; Interested In A.J. Pollock, Jorge Soler
6:56pm: The Braves continue to ask the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). After the D-backs initially rejected Atlanta’s proposal of Miller for Pollock, the Braves came back with an offer of Miller and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and minor league right-hander Aaron Blair, which Arizona also rejected.
Clearly, while the Braves are in a state of rebuilding, there’s interest on their behalf in adding a piece that can help them in 2017, when much of the team’s young stable of pitching prospects will be emerging onto the Major League scene. Both Pollock and Soler (mentioned in the previous update) fit that bill, with Soler possessing even more club control than Pollock, who is a free agent after three seasons (the same as Miller).
6:40pm: Shelby Miller‘s name is one of the most popular on the rumor circuit at present, with recent reports indicating that as many as 20 teams have checked in on the Atlanta right-hander. Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, Marlins, Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are all among the teams to have expressed interest, and further details on the Miller market are beginning to emerge.
Today, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Braves are highly interested in Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler, but right-hander Julio Teheran probably isn’t enough to pry Soler away from Chicago (links to Twitter). One person familiar with Atlanta’s thinking also told Crasnick that the Red Sox could be a match, though that tweet preceded tonight’s record-setting agreement with David Price.
Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Giants are the teams that appear to be the most interested in Miller, but the Braves might be waiting until Price’s deal becomes official and Zack Greinke makes a decision before ultimately determining whether or not they should move Miller. Greinke is said to be choosing between San Francisco and L.A., so it stands to reason that whichever club loses out on Greinke could show an increased willingness to part with talent to land Miller.
Heyman hears that one name that’s unlikely to be included in a Miller deal is Joc Pederson (Twitter link), The Dodgers have “made clear” that they’d prefer to deal from their deep well of prospects as opposed to part with Major League ready talent such as Pederson, whose name isn’t involved in trade discussions between the two sides at this time.
The 25-year-old Miller is set to hit arbitration for the first time this winter and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.9MM next season. He’s controllable for three more years and is coming off a fine 2015 campaign in which he recorded a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.7 ground-ball rate in 205 2/3 innings. The ERA, ground-ball rate and innings total each ranked as a career-high for the former first-round pick.
Latest On Johnny Cueto’s Asking Price
10:46pm: Arizona’s interest in Cueto was and perhaps still is rather intense, according to reports. The organization sent a delegation including GM Dave Stewart, chief baseball officer Tony La Russa, and president Derrick Hall to the Dominican Republic to meet with the righty, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. And the D’backs still have interest after the initial offer was rebuffed, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), who adds that the club “realize[s]” that Cueto can command more than a $20MM AAV over six years after Jordan Zimmermann got $22MM annually for five.
Of course, the Diamondbacks aren’t alone in pursuing the veteran. Among the other teams to reach out to his representatives are the Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, and Cubs, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. That group of large-market contenders has always figured to factor at the top of the free agent pitching pool.
11:52am: Johnny Cueto reportedly rejected a six-year, $120MM contract offer from the D-Backs recently, and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick now reports that teams in the market for Cueto believe he’s seeking $140-160MM in total — a contract that would vault him into Jon Lester territory (Twitter link). According to Crasnick, the Diamondbacks initially planned to offer Cueto about $110MM but upped their offer to $120MM late in talks (Twitter link). The increase, however, wasn’t enough to get the job done.
It would seem, then, that Cueto’s camp is seeking a contract that doesn’t offer any sort of reduced rate due to the minor elbow issues that plagued Cueto this summer or due to his late-season struggles. Cueto was masterful in his first four outings with the Royals, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in 30 innings, including a complete-game shutout of the Tigers. However, he limped to a 6.49 ERA over his final nine starts (51 1/3 innings). There were a few quality starts mixed in toward the end, but many speculated as to whether Cueto was fully healthy. Cueto and Salvador Perez reportedly worked to adjust where Perez would set the target for Cueto’s pitches, but he still had mixed results from that point forth.
Cueto’s postseason was a true mixed bag — one so-so start, one meltdown and a pair of dominant gems in pivotal games. His final outing — a one-run complete game over the Mets in Game 2 of the World Series — was a nice final impression to make as he headed into free agency. Nevertheless, Cueto’s overall body of work following his mild elbow flare-up and trade to the Royals saw him yield 58 earned runs in 106 1/3 innings (4.91 ERA) with a 75-to-27 K/BB ratio and 118 hits (13 homers) allowed.
None of that is to say that Cueto can’t or shouldn’t secure a hefty payday, of course. Despite those issues, the perception of Cueto has remained that he’s one of the three or four best starters on the market (depending on one’s feelings about Jordan Zimmremann), and we at MLBTR still projected him to clear $100MM with relative ease (though the $120MM he rejected already surpassed our most recent $115MM figure). Prior to those issues, a Lester-esque contract was a perfectly reasonable expectation for Cueto, and the possibility that he exceeded that figure was certainly present. Cueto, after all, logged a 2.48 ERA in 677 1/3 innings from 2011-14 despite pitching his home games in one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks, and he carried a similarly elite 2.62 ERA and a 120-to-29 K/BB ratio through 130 2/3 innings with the Reds this season.
Cueto is a clear front-line starter when healthy and at his best, and he’s entering the open market heading into his age-30 season, having not yet even celebrated his 30th birthday as of this writing. That he’s already received a $120MM offer suggests that the demand for his services is strong, which certainly plays into his camp’s favor as the Winter Meetings approach.
Shelby Miller Drawing Significant Trade Interest
Braves right-hander Shelby Miller is one of the hottest names on the trade market, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, with as many as 20 teams having checked in on the young right-hander. There’s no indication that anything is close at this time, Heyman notes, and the Braves are said to be asking a huge haul in return for Miller, who has three years of affordable club control remaining.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Giants have all shown interest in Miller to this point. According to Heyman, the Braves asked the Yankees for right-hander Luis Severino in exchange for Miller, and the Marlins were asked to part with outfielder Marcell Ozuna and other pieces in order to pry Miller away from Atlanta. Those steep asking prices line up with previous reports pertaining to the Braves’ talks with the Diamondbacks, when they reportedly asked that Arizona part with star center fielder A.J. Pollock. (Those talks didn’t gain traction.)
Miller, acquired alongside minor league righty Tyrell Jenkins in exchange for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden, is coming off a strong debut season with the Braves. The former first-rounder logged a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in 205 1/3 innings (the innings total was also a career high). Miller won only six games due to Atlanta’s bullpen struggles and a lack of run support, but that actually enhances is value in a way. Teams won’t be deterred by a poor win-loss record when evaluating Miller, but the lack of wins will suppress his arbitration earnings, as the arb process still factors in pitcher wins/losses rather heavily. Miller’s strong body of work as a whole to this point in his career still makes for a $4.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but the number assuredly would’ve been greater had his record aligned more accordingly with his ERA.
One factor that clubs may consider, though, is that Miller’s overall numbers are propped up by what was an unsustainable run of sub-2.00 ERA production through the season’s first two months. From June 1 through season’s end, Miller posted a quality (but less impressive) 3.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 across 138 1/3 innings. Miller’s strikeout rates and control numbers have fluctuated somewhat throughout his career, but low BABIP totals and seemingly good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball rate have led to a large discrepancy between his 3.22 ERA and metrics such as xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.10). Miller’s BABIP has always been below the league average, though, as has his HR/FB, suggesting that some of the perceived fortune could be more skill-based in his case.
Ultimately, the value placed upon him in a potential trade (if he is moved at all) will be dependent on whether the club places more emphasis on his ERA or on his secondary stats. Even if Miller is more of a mid- or upper-3.00 ERA type of pitcher, three seasons of control over him would still come with significant value, so it’s logical to see Atlanta placing a sizable asking price on Miller when listening to offers from interested parties.
Zack Greinke Market Beginning To Heat Up
The market for free-agent ace Zack Greinke is “quietly heating up,” tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Both the Dodgers and Giants are looking for some clarity in regards to their pursuit of the right-hander, according to Crasnick, who hears that the Excel Sports client is seeking $30MM annually.
As Crasnick notes, that annual target is a challenge for teams interested in Greinke not only due to its own enormity but also due to the fact that Greinke is older than the typical free-agent starter, set to embark on his age-32 campaign in 2016. Most recent multi-year deals of the magnitude Greinke is expected to command conclude in the pitcher’s age-36 season (at least in terms of guaranteed money), but that would cap Greinke at five years. Considering the historically excellent season he just delivered in 2015, however, it’s easy to envision Greinke’s camp seeking six or more years on a free-agent deal.
After all, Greinke’s 1.66 ERA was the lowest single-season mark by a qualified starting pitcher in the past two decades. He logged 222 2/3 innings in the regular season, averaging 8.1 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 and went on to toss 13 2/3 very solid innings in the playoffs as well. Greinke has been nothing short of brilliant in his three years with the Dodgers, compiling a 2.30 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in 602 2/3 regular-season innings, plus a strikingly similar 2.27 ERA in 35 2/3 postseason innings.
Greinke’s age and the fact that he rejected a qualifying offer are both knocks against him when compared to his primary competitors — David Price and Johnny Cueto — but Greinke is also coming off the best season of the three. Beyond that, the general consensus among scouts seems to be that Greinke will age better than many of his elite peers, somewhat lessening the sting of committing a contract of significant length. In addition to the Dodgers and Giants, Greinke has also been linked to the Red Sox and Cubs, though other large-market, high-payroll teams figure to have privately expressed some interest as well.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/30/15
Here are today’s minor moves from around the league…
- Infielder Grant Green has signed a minor league deal with the Giants, reports Baseball America’s Matt Eddy (on Twitter). Green, 28, is a former first-round pick of the Athletics that hasn’t panned out as hoped. Traded to the Angels back in 2013, Green has amassed a .249/.283/.335 batting line in 300 Major League plate appearances, spending most of his time at second base. He’ll give the Giants some depth at second and in left field.
- Eddy also tweets that the Reds have signed former big leaguer Brandon Allen to a minor league deal. The powerful first baseman hasn’t seen the Majors since 2012 and is a career .203/.290/.375 hitters in 389 PAs in the Majors. He’s crushed Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .276/.372/.502 batting line, however, making him a useful bat to stash at the team’s top minor league level.
- The Indians announced that outfielder Michael Choice has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A Columbus. The former top 100 prospect will be in Major League camp as a non-roster invitee come Spring Training. Choice, 26, was designated for assignment when the Indians claimed Kirby Yates off waivers from the Rays. He’s a career .188/.253/.320 hitter in 300 big league plate appearances but has a more palatable line of .271/.356/.426 in Triple-A.
- The Red Sox have outrighted infielder Josh Rutledge to Triple-A Pawtucket, the team announced today. Rutledge, 26, was acquired from the Angels in exchange for Shane Victorino this past summer. He batted .284/.333/.338 in 85 PAs for the BoSox and is a career .261/.310/.398 hitter in the Majors, though some of that success is attributable to spending the early portion of his career playing his home games at Coors Field.
Latest On Ben Zobrist
Ben Zobrist is the Mets’ “No. 1 target” this offseason, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). The Nationals, Braves, and Giants are also among the leading teams for Zobrist. The Royals, meanwhile, are not expected to offer the same type of money that those other clubs are.
Rosenthal adds that the veteran’s market is likely to become more defined over the next few days. Zobrist is seeking a four-year deal and a club’s willingness to go from three to four years will “likely be [the] deciding factor” for the veteran, per Rosenthal. Recently, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported that there are as many as 20 teams with interest in the versatile switch-hitter and he listed the Cardinals as one of the most interested teams.
Zobrist is highly valued thanks to his incredible versatility coupled with his strong OBP. However, with his 35th birthday coming up in May, teams are understandably hesitant about giving him a four-year deal. On the plus side, however, Zobrist will not require the forfeiture of a draft pick since the midseason deal that sent him to KC made him ineligible for a qualifying offer. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Zobrist would net a three-year, $51MM deal.
Cubs, Cards, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox Showing Most Interest In Price
The Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox are showing the most interest in left-hander David Price, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal adds that while Price enjoyed his time in Toronto, the Blue Jays “are not expected to be a major factor in his free agency,” which isn’t necessarily a surprise considering the team’s previous reluctance to commit the type of expenditure Price will command to any player. Meanwhile, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported today that there’s a “high expectation” among executives involved in the Price bidding that the Red Sox will make the highest offer (links to Twitter). Tom Verducci also said in a recent MLB Network appearance that Boston will aggressively pursue Price.
Other clubs will naturally show interest in Price and presumably already have. However, the common belief that Price is capable of approaching or exceeding Max Scherzer‘s seven-year, $210MM contract from last offseason suggests that many teams will be priced out of serious consideration.
Each of the clubs listed by Rosenthal has a need in the rotation, though some to a greater extent than others. The Cardinals recently lost Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery and saw several of their promising young arms slowed by injuries in 2015 (including Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales). The Dodgers could potentially lose Zack Greinke to free agency and don’t know what to expect from either Hyun-jin Ryu or Brandon McCarthy in 2016. The Giants’ rotation was highly unstable in 2015 behind ace Madison Bumgarner, and the Red Sox struggled through 2015 with one of the game’s worst performances from their rotation. The need for the Cubs is less glaring on paper, as Chicago ranked third in rotation ERA in 2015. However, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel wilted down the stretch, and adding another top-tier starter to pair with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in the rotation would give Chicago a highly formidable postseason rotation.
Price is coming off a dominant season split between Detroit and Toronto in which he logged a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 40.4 ground-ball rate in 220 1/3 innings. Because he was ineligible for a qualifying offer due to this summer’s trade, Price won’t require a new club to forfeit a draft pick upon signing him.