Starting Pitching Notes: Lackey, Fernandez, Price, Chen
The Giants are among the clubs that are showing interest in right-hander John Lackey, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). San Francisco, though, is exploring a wide swath of starting pitching options, per Rosenthal, so it only makes sense that Lackey would be among the pitchers to pique the team’s interest. The 37-year-old Lackey has been a popular name on the free-agent market thus far, having reportedly been connected to the Marlins, Cardinals, Cubs, D-Backs, Rangers, Red Sox and Dodgers thus far. Over the weekend, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo listed the Giants and Cubs as the two teams with the best shot to sign Lackey.
Here’s more on the market for rotation arms…
- Executives from teams searching for high-end starting pitching tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Jose Fernandez isn’t available in trades at this time. Sherman spoke with Fernandez’s agent, Scott Boras, about the reported tension between him and the Marlins‘ front office. Boras tells Sherman that he spoke with Miami president of baseball operations Michael Hill the day after the initial negative reports surfaced, with Hill telling him that he looked forward to Fernandez fronting the team’s rotation in 2016.
- In an appearance on TSN 1050 in Canada (audio link), ESPN’s Keith Law discusses David Price with hosts Derek Taylor and Kara Wagland, noting that there’s no reason to believe he would accept anything less than full market value to return to the Blue Jays. Law adds that he’s never felt a reunion between the two sides is likely, pointing out that the MLBPA encourages the top names on the market to take every dollar possible to drive up the price for the second tier of free agents and the following year’s class. The idea of Price returning to Toronto has seemed like a long shot, at best, since he was acquired, given the team’s mid-sized payroll and previous lack of lengthy commitments. Law’s colleague, Buster Olney, wrote recently in his ESPN Insider daily blog post that some evaluators involved in discussions with Price’s camp believe that Price is indicating to all clubs that he’d like to play for them.
- FOX’s Jon Paul Morosi wonders if left-hander Wei-Yin Chen could potentially pull down an annual value of $20MM on his upcoming contract. While that number seems like a stretch, Morosi points out that agents will likely be citing Rick Porcello‘s $20.625MM annual value in contract negotiations this winter. A team paying $20MM+ annually for Chen seems like a stretch to me, but Morosi’s general point about Porcello serving as a reference is interesting; we’ll find out this offseason whether that contract looks like an outlier or one that served to drive up the price for second-tier starting pitchers. Porcello’s name has come up in conversations I’ve had with industry contacts this winter, though only time will tell if his contract does indeed serve to advance the secondary pitching market.
- In a piece for Sports On Earth, MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell tries to peg Zack Greinke‘s free-agent value based on historical comparisons. Cassavell looks at age-based comps in an attempt to gauge how long Greinke will remain effective and the length of contract he’ll ultimately command. Cassavell projects that Greinke can be realistically relied upon for three more high-quality seasons before beginning to regress to above-average (but no longer elite) results, ultimately coming to the conclusion of a six-year, $153MM contract prediction.
Tim Lincecum Aiming For January Showcase And Signing
Free agent righty Tim Lincecum expects to wait until the calendar flips before seriously considering signing, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports. Having undergone hip surgery in September, the two-time Cy Young winner is hoping to return to health and put on a showcase in January.
Passan suggests that Lincecum and his camp are hoping that the procedure will help the 31-year-old rediscover some of his former form. Between 2008 and 2011, he compiled 881 1/3 innings of 2.81 ERA pitching with 10.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. It’s been quite some time since Lincecum rated as a top-of-the-rotation arm, though, as his last All-Star appearance and sub-4.00 ERA came in the last year of that four-season run.
Lincecum has, however, shown the potential to deliver some innings since. His earned run average sits at 4.68 in 615 2/3 frames over the 2012-15 span, but he carries a 4.08 FIP in that time. Other metrics have been even more bullish on the righty in prior years, though both xFIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.82) panned his 15 starts in 2015. And Lincecum’s strikeout rate has continued to fall along with his velocity — though, somewhat curiously, his swinging strike rate was nearly as good as ever last year (10.7%) even as his average heater landed south of 88 mph.
It remains to be seen whether a healthy hip will fuel a late-career burst, but it seems likely that clubs will be intrigued to see how Lincecum looks. Interestingly, his plans also seem to indicate a willingness to fully test the market, suggesting that a return to the Giants may not be in the offing. (It had been reported earlier this fall that San Francisco might be interested in striking a minor league deal.)
Regardless of what kind of show he can put on come January, the likelihood is that Lincecum will land a one-year contract — both because that’s all the market will give and because he’ll want a chance to re-enter free agency after a better platform season. If Lincecum can show enough to achieve guaranteed money, odds are it’ll be fairly modest, though he also seems a likely candidate for an incentive-rich contract.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/23/15
Here are the day’s minor signings from around the league…
- Infielder Steve Tolleson is headed to the Orioles on a minor league deal, Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Tolleson will receive an invitation to major league camp. The 32-year-old owns a .245/.299/.372 slash in 363 career plate appearances in the bigs.
- Shortstop Hak-Ju Lee is joining the Giants on a minor league deal, Matt Eddy reported as part of a slew of signings. (See his Twitter feed for these and more.) Formerly a top prospect with the Rays, the 25-year-old suffered a serious knee injury and has not hit much since at the Triple-A level. Among other deals, San Francisco also brought back lefty Ricky Romero, per Eddy.
- The Diamondbacks have added righty Kyle Drabek on a minors deal, according to Eddy. He joins outfielder Kyle Jensen and third baseman Carlos Rivero as Arizona minor league free agent signees. Once one of the game’s best-regarded pitching prospects with the Blue Jays, the 27-year-old Drabek did not live up to his promise in Toronto. But he did toss a solid 137 1/3 innings last year at Triple-A for the White Sox, working to a 3.47 ERA with 5.5 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9.
- The White Sox have signed righty Phillippe Aumont to a minor league pact, Josh Norris of Baseball America tweets. The former Phillies prospect lost his 40-man roster spot last year. He did put up a 3.14 ERA after moving back into the rotation at Triple-A, but continued to demonstrate serious control problems with 6.8 BB/9.
Earlier Transactions
- The Blue Jays have signed first baseman Casey Kotchman, second baseman David Adams and shortstop Jiovanni Mier to minor league contract with invitations to Major League Spring Training, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. The 32-year-old Kotchman comes with far and away the most big league experience, having served as an everyday first baseman (or close to it) with the Angels, Braves, Red Sox, Mariners, Rays and Indians from 2007-12. However, Kotchman hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2013 and hasn’t experienced much in the way of success since his career year with the 2011 Rays. He’s a lifetime .260/.326/.385 hitter in the Majors. Adams, meanwhile, was once a promising second base prospect with the Yankees but never received a consistent chance in the Majors (in part, due to injuries). The now-28-year-old did receive 152 PAs in New York in 2013 but batted just .193/.252/.286 in that short stint. Mier, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick and top 100 prospect, but his bat has never really come around. He’s now 25 years of age and is a career .239/.333/.340 hitter in the minors.
Extension Notes: Crawford, Belt, Keuchel, Harper
Brandon Crawford didn’t want play anywhere other than San Francisco, which is why he was so insistent on full no-trade protection in his recent contract extension, CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic writes. Giants GM Bobby Evans and Joel Wolfe, Crawford’s agent, first discussed an extension last spring but talks didn’t really go anywhere, so discussions were re-opened in October while Evans was waiting for free agency to open. As Pavlovic notes, locking Crawford up early means the Giants can now use the Gold Glove-winning shortstop as a selling point to attract free agent starters. Crawford has his extension settled, and here’s some more news about other stars who may be in line for big multi-year deals…
- With Crawford’s contract settled, Brandon Belt could be the next Giant to receive an extension, Pavlovic writes in a separate piece. Evans said he’s had some talks with Belt’s representatives but it’s possible they could settle his 2016 contract first before exploring a longer-term deal. Belt’s concussion history isn’t an obstacle, as Evans said the Giants have “gotten very good medical info that doesn’t give us concerns about Brandon’s health.” Belt hit .280/.356/.478 with 18 homers in 556 plate appearances last season, and while the Giants were still prone to sitting him against left-handed pitching, Belt posted a very respectable .802 OPS in 145 PA against southpaws. He’s projected by MLBTR to earn $6.2MM in 2016, his second year of arbitration eligibility. San Francisco doesn’t have any intention of trading Belt, Pavlovic adds, so rumors of the team’s interest in Chris Davis may be overblown.
- Dallas Keuchel and the Astros are expected to discuss a long-term deal this offseason and both Keuchel and GM Jeff Luhnow speak to the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich about the possible shape of these talks. Keuchel is something of a “hard comp,” as Drellich notes, because of how few players have matched his exact career path. MLBTR’s Steve Adams described some of the main points that will go into the Keuchel negotiations when news first broke of the extension talks in August.
- Six rival executives gave their guesses about what a Bryce Harper extension might look like to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, with guesses ranging from six years and $180MM to a record-breaking 15-year, $450MM deal with a player opt-out clause. While the Nationals would be extending Harper at his peak of production, the team would also have some leverage since Harper’s current contract limits his earnings through that would’ve been some very expensive arbitration years. The executives aren’t sure exactly what form a Harper extension could take, though it could be a moot point since they doubt an extension will be signed — most Scott Boras clients hit free agency rather than sign lengthy extensions with their original teams. Kilgore’s piece is well worth a full read, as it’s a very interesting look at the numerous factors that will go into Harper’s next contract (whether it’s an extension or a free agent deal) and the six execs present a wide range of fascinating contract scenarios.
Dodgers Interested In Zimmermann; Giants A “Threat” To Land Greinke
Righty Jordan Zimmermann is one of the Dodgers’ “top targets” among free agent starters, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (Twitter links). That shouldn’t be read as a shift of focus away from Zack Greinke, he adds, so much as an indication of the team’s affinity for Zimmermann.
That report comes on the heels of another suggesting that the Giants could be a “formidable threat” to land Greinke. As Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com writes, San Francisco is at least creating an impression in the marketplace that it is prepared for a serious pursuit of the talented — but less than youthful — veteran starter. Of course, the Giants are also said to be doing some diligence on David Price.
It’s always intriguing to consider these two division rivals competing over a player, but in truth the connection goes beyond the fact that only one can win the NL West. Los Angeles probably has more free agent spending capacity than any team in baseball right now — whether or not it chooses to use it — while their neighbors to the north seemingly saved their hefty war chest for this winter’s strong group of free agents. And, of course, both have obvious needs in the rotation.
One year ago, it wouldn’t have been surprising at all to expect to debate the relative merits of these two pitchers. At that point, Zimmermann was coming off of a season in which he looked like an improving, top-of-the-rotation arm, while Greinke was good but obviously not getting any younger.
Things have changed quite a bit in the meantime, though. The 29-year-old Zimmermann has lost some luster, while Greinke turned in a season for the ages. Of course, there’s an argument to be made that perceptions and recency bias could be clouding the situation, but it seems clear at this point that Greinke will out-earn his younger competitor.
All told, it remains far too early to get any kind of a reasonable read of the market. There’s arguably been more chatter surrounding Greinke than other top arms — it’s mostly been crickets, in particular, regarding Johnny Cueto — but as of yet there’s nothing to suggest any sort of clarity. Indeed, if anything, these reports serve only to confirm the fluidity at the top of the pitching market.
Market Notes: Soria, Utley, Desmond, Jones
Free agent reliever Joakim Soria has long been rumored to be drawing interest from several of his former employers, and at least two of them are still in the hunt, per a tweet from Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. The current “front-runners” to land the righty, it seems, include the Royals and Rangers — but not the Tigers, who just dealt for Francisco Rodriguez. Interestingly, the other top pursuer is largely a newcomer to the chatter on Soria: the Giants rate as one of the three most likely landing spots, according to the report.
Here are a few more free agent notes:
- Five or six clubs have expressed interest in signing Chase Utley as a “mostly everyday infielder,” agent Joel Wolfe tells Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News (Twitter link). The Dodgers are one of those teams, per the report (and as suggested previously). Utley would probably be best served as a platoon option at this point, though he’d presumably see plenty of action if he gets most of the time against right-handed pitching.
- The representatives of shortstop Ian Desmond are highlighting his defensive versatility to prospective clubs, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets. That’s a bit surprising to hear, given that much of Desmond’s value is tied to his ability to play short, where he rates as a solid defender despite being prone to committing errors. DiComo notes that Desmond has played outfield previously, which is true — but only barely. Desmond has appeared in the outfield in exactly four games as a professional: twice with the Nats, once in Triple-A, and once in the Dominican Winter League. Indeed, he’s only ever played eight other games at any position other than short, with all of those coming in the way of minor league appearances at second. None of that is to say that Desmond can’t play elsewhere on the diamond. After all, he is an excellent athlete. And perhaps the idea of eventually moving to the grass would make the back end of his deal somewhat more palatable.
- Veteran outfielder Andruw Jones is looking for a chance with a big league club and will retire if he doesn’t find one, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reports on Twitter. The 17-year MLB veteran, now 38 years old, last appeared in the majors in 2012. But he was rather productive for the NPB’s Rakuten club between 2013 and 2014, slashing .232/.392/.441 in 1185 total plate appearances. It is worth noting, though, that Jones did not end up playing last year after reportedly seeking another shot at the bigs.
Giants, Dodgers Have Expressed Interest In Shelby Miller
The Giants and Dodgers have “checked in” on Braves righty Shelby Miller, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports on Twitter. We already heard recently of interest from another NL West club, the Diamondbacks, though those talks apparently did not progress (Twitter link).
It’s not entirely clear at this point what level of interest the Braves have in dealing the 25-year-old righty. He re-emerged last year in Atlanta after being acquired in the Jason Heyward trade, contributing 205 1/3 innings of 3.02 ERA pitching with 7.5 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. MLBTR projects Miller to earn $4.9MM in his first of three trips through arbitration.
The Braves have already made clear that they’ll trade just about anyone on their roster, after a major sell-off last year and recent send-off of shortstop Andrelton Simmons. GM John Coppolella has said that the team will not trade first baseman Freddie Freeman, but it seems plausible to think that any other players could be had for the right price.
Young pitching has clearly been the focus of Atlanta’s acquisition efforts thus far, and the club has built an impressive stable of arms. Most recently, high-upside hurler Sean Newcomb headlined the Simmons swap. And a number of other pitchers were already installed in the upper reaches of the farm last winter.
On the surface, then, it might be asked why the Braves would have any interest in dealing players such as Miller and Julio Teheran, both of whom are affordable, well-regarded, younger pitchers. (You could say the same of already-dealt lefty Alex Wood.) The answer, perhaps, is that the value of these kinds of pitchers is arguably highest right now, when the club is simply not ready to compete, making it an opportune time to cash them in for assets that will be of greater utility down the line. It’s also worth noting that, as with Simmons, both Miller and Teheran will enjoy fairly significant raises over the coming seasons.
Both San Francisco and Los Angeles, of course, are said to be hunting for significant rotation upgrades this winter. The division rivals have both had their share of injuries in the rotation and seek multiple new arms. For the opposite reasons that might motivate the Braves to deal a player like Miller, it’s certainly plausible to imagine both clubs having interest in the concept of sacrificing near-future value for a mid-prime major leaguer who is at least controllable for a few seasons at a reasonable rate of pay. That’s all the more true, of course, given that both the Giants and Dodgers are said to be weighing significant free agent pitching investments.
It’s obviously not worth speculating too much about what kind of return might entice the Braves, but there’s little question that both prospective trade partners have the assets needed if the motivation is there. And it’s worth remembering that the Atlanta front office has proven itself highly creative in structuring deals. Of course, it remains to be seen whether there’s a match to be made with these — or other — teams.
Giants Sign Brandon Crawford To Six-Year Extension
6:11pm: Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reports the breakdown of Crawford’s contract (via Twitter). He’ll receive a $1.2MM signing bonus $5.8MM in 2016 and $8MM in 2017 before earning $15MM per season from 2018 through 2021 — his would-be free-agent years.
4:56pm: The Giants announced that they’ve signed shortstop Brandon Crawford to a six-year contract extension. The new deal will buy out Crawford’s final two arbitration seasons and four free-agent years, keeping him in San Francisco through 2021 — his age-34 season. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Wasserman Media Group client will receive $75MM and a full no-trade clause in the deal.
Crawford, 29 in January, was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to receive $5.7MM this offseason in what would’ve been his second time through the arbitration process. If we assume something in the range of $8MM for his final arbitration salary, the Giants are buying out four free-agent seasons at a total of about $61-62MM — about $15.5MM annually.
In locking up Crawford, the Giants will secure one of the game’s premier shortstop defenders as he comes off an offensive breakout. Dating back to 2012, Crawford has tallied 42 Defensive Runs Saved — 19th in the Majors of any player at any position in that time. While he’s long been known more for his glove than his bat, Crawford’s isolated power (slugging minus batting average) has increased in each season of his Major League career, beginning at .092 in 2011 and topping out at this season’s hefty .205. Crawford slugged a career-best 21 homers in his age-28 season and tallied an excellent .256/.321/.462 batting line to complement his outstanding defense. Fangraphs valued his contributions at 4.7 wins above replacement, and Baseball-Reference weighed in at 5.6 WAR.
The Giants will hope that Crawford’s power outburst can be sustained, if not built upon, but it should be noted that Crawford doesn’t need to be a 20-homer bat at shortstop to justify the type of money committed to him in this deal. The average shortstop has been about 13 to 14 percent worse than the league-average hitter over the past four seasons, and Crawford’s bat exceeded those levels each year dating back to 2013 (when adjusting for his cavernous home park). Simply delivering better-than-average offense, relative to his positional peers, and continuing to turn in sterling defensive work should be enough for Crawford to justify, if not exceed the value of his new contract.
While Crawford, like any player who signs an extension of this nature, could have potentially earned more money by going year to year through arbitration and hitting the open market at age 30 in search of a five- or six-year deal through his age-36 campaign, he now has the security of knowing that he’ll remain with the only organization he’s ever known for the vast majority of his career. That carries plenty of weight for a player, especially one who was born and raised within about 45 miles of AT&T Park.
As for the Giants, they’ve undoubtedly done their homework in looking ahead at the players who joined Crawford in his service time bracket (between four and five years). Crawford would’ve easily led the shortstop class in free agency that season, as he’d be joined by the likes of Ruben Tejada, Danny Espinosa, Eduardo Nunez and Alexi Amarista. The Giants, with little in the way of big-league ready shortstops in the upper levels of their minor league system — most scouts feel that Christian Arroyo will need to move to third base, while Lucius Fox and Jalen Miller are probably at least four years away — have proactively addressed that need and locked down a fan favorite in the process.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Giants Agree To Minors Pact With Kyle Blanks
TODAY: The deal is complete pending physical, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News tweets.
YESTERDAY: The Giants are “close to finalizing” a minor-league deal with free agent outfielder/first baseman Kyle Blanks, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. The oft-injured slugger is expected to have a solid shot at breaking camp with the big club, Shea adds.
Blanks, 29, has at times looked like a possible big league regular. There have been ups and downs, but he owns a useful .241/.322/.416 batting line in 933 career plate appearances at the major league level, spread widely over seven seasons.
There are other reasons to believe that Blanks is worth a roll of the dice. For one thing, he’s dominated the Triple-A level to the tune of a .300/.400/.568 slash line. And defensive metrics have generally viewed him as an average (if not slightly above average) defender in the corner outfield and at first.
The biggest difficulty to date has been health. Blanks has suffered from elbow, shoulder, and foot issues over the last five years, and most recently underwent surgical procedures on both Achilles tendons.
It appears that San Francisco has in mind to utilize Blanks as a right-handed-hitting bench bat, if he cracks the roster. He could theoretically spell Brandon Belt at first, though Buster Posey also figures to see some time there. It’s also possible to imagine Blanks spending time in left field — at least if the club does not add a big-name free agent to play there.
Giants Interested In Extending Brandon Crawford
The Giants will look into signing shortstop Brandon Crawford to a long-term extension this offseason, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (Insider subscription required). The 28-year-old Crawford is entering his second winter of arbitration, and MLBTR projects he’ll earn $5.7MM in 2016 — a nice bump from his $3.175MM salary last season.
Of course, Crawford certainly earned himself a healthy raise in the wake of breakout 2015 campaign. The shortstop had earned a reputation as an all-glove, no-hit player over his first four seasons, though he had been quietly improving at the plate each year; Crawford even posted a 103 wRC+ in 2014, his first above-average year of run creation. Still, few expected Crawford to suddenly hit 21 homers with a .256/.321/.462 slash line over 561 plate appearances.
While the batting average and OBP were only mild increases over Crawford’s 2011-14 numbers, Crawford had only 27 career homers and a career .359 slugging percentage heading into 2015. The combination of this potent bat and Crawford’s best defensive year yet (as per the Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150 metrics) led to a 4.7 fWAR season, a total topped by only 23 players in baseball last season.
It should be noted that Crawford did much of his hitting damage in the first two months of last season, and while he generally kept his power up through the summer, the rest of his numbers fell. As well, aside from an increase in his swings at pitches in the strike zone, his hitting metrics weren’t appreciatively different from his career norms, so it could be that this inflated home run rate will be hard for Crawford to maintain. A shortstop with 20-homer pop and strong defense carries a significant price tag, so the question of whether Crawford’s power is for real will surely be a major factor for what the Giants will offer the WMG client.
The MLBTR Extension Tracker reveals that most shortstops between 4-5 years of service time who signed extensions only took short-term deals that covered the rest of their arbitration years. (The two big exceptions were Troy Tulowitzki and Elvis Andrus, and we can safely assume that the Giants won’t offer anything close to either of those two mega-deals.) San Francisco is likely looking for a deal that covers Crawford’s two remaining arbitration years and at least one free agent year, probably two. MLB.com lists three shortstops within their list of the Giants’ top seven prospects, yet none of the trio (Christian Arroyo, Lucius Fox, Jalen Miller) is older than 20 and scouts are mixed on any of them sticking at short at the Major League level, so Crawford wouldn’t be blocking anyone.
Payroll flexibility shouldn’t be an issue for the team, as Buster Posey and Hunter Pence are the only players signed beyond 2017. One can assume Madison Bumgarner‘s 2018 team option will be picked up and the Giants may sign the ace to an extension of his own. San Francisco has also been linked to several of this winter’s top free agents in the rumor mill, so the club could also have at least one more big long-term deal on their books over the next few months.
Teams generally turn their attention to extensions once their major free agent shopping is over, so you can probably expect talks between Crawford and the Giants to pick up steam in January as the arbitration filing deadline approaches. The two sides could also settle on a one-year deal for 2016 and then work out an extension later in February or March.