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2021 Arbitration Hearing Results & Post-Deadline Agreements

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January 15 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to officially submit salary figures for the 2021, and by the time the day was done, only 13 players didn’t reach agreement on a contract.  The majority of teams now adhere to the “file or trial” strategy, meaning that no further negotiations on a one-year deal will take place between the arbitration deadline and a hearing with an arbiter, which theoretically puts pressure on players to get a deal done if they are wary about taking their case to a third party.

“File and trial” tactics didn’t stop the Astros and Carlos Correa from agreeing to a one-year deal for just the 2021 season, which is also Correa’s last year before gaining free agent eligibility.  We also saw three multi-year deals reached, all from the greater Los Angeles area — the Dodgers reached two-year deals with Walker Buehler and Austin Barnes, while the Angels inked a two-year pact with Shohei Ohtani.

This left nine unresolved cases that went all the way to a hearing (held over Zoom) between an arbiter, the player, his representative(s), and front office personnel arguing the team’s side.  The teams won five of the nine hearings, continuing the very narrow edge teams have held over players in arb cases in recent years — over the last 99 arbitration hearings, teams hold a 51-48 record over players.

For the full list of every salary for every arbitration-eligible player this offseason, check out the MLB Trade Rumors Arb Tracker.  Sticking to the 13 players with unresolved cases from January 15, here’s the rundown…

Avoided Arbitration, One-Year Contract

Avoided Arbitration, Multi-Year Contract

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Player

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Team

NL Central Notes: Rodriguez, Carpenter, Farmer

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There is plenty of opportunity for hurlers to win jobs on the rebuilding Pirates’ pitching staff, and The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel (subscription required) breaks down the full list of arms in Pittsburgh’s Spring Training camp.  This isn’t to say that the Bucs are entirely done making moves, however, as Biertempfel names Richard Rodriguez the “Pirates reliever most likely to be traded this spring.”

Since signing with Pittsburgh prior to the 2018 season, Rodriguez has posted very strong numbers — a 3.02 ERA, and an above-average 28.16K% and 7.15BB% over 158 relief innings.  Home runs have been an issue (1.3 HR/9) and Rodriguez’s hard-contact numbers were among the worst in baseball last season, though he also has some elite (96th percentile) fastball spin.  Rodriguez turns 31 in March, but he is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration, and is set to earn a modest $1.7MM this season.  There hasn’t been any public trade speculation about Rodriguez during the offseason to date, yet considering how the Pirates are open to discussing virtually player in the organization, it seems likely some teams have already been in touch about Rodriguez.  More talks could develop as Spring Training continues and clubs get a clearer sense of their bullpen needs.

Some more items from around the NL Central…

  • Matt Carpenter will not be spending time in the outfield this season, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told Jeff Jones of the Belleville News (Twitter link) and other reports. Now that Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are entrenched at Carpenter’s usual corner infield positions, there has been some speculation that the Cardinals could look for other ways to get his bat in the lineup. Since the outfield is a non-starter for Carpenter and NL teams won’t have a designated hitter spot, this leaves either a second base platoon with Tommy Edman or bench duty for the 35-year-old Carpenter.  The three-time All-Star has seen a steep decline at the plate over the past two seasons, and 2021 looms as Carpenter’s final year in St. Louis — the Cardinals have an $18.5MM club option for 2022 that seems almost sure to be bought out unless Carpenter has a major rebound.
  • Kyle Farmer was keeping one eye on baseball Twitter this offseason to see if the Reds would sign a shortstop, he told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters, since Farmer was preparing to take a shot at the position himself.  After playing just one game at shortstop over his first three seasons, Farmer made 15 appearances as a shortstop in 2020, and still remains in the mix for at least semi-regular work among a group that also includes Kyle Holder, Dee Strange-Gordon, and Max Schrock.  (Jose Garcia is one of the few pure shortstops on the roster, though he is set to begin the season in the minors.)  Farmer lost 10 pounds and overhauled his swing this offseason in his bid to prove himself worthy of regular playing time, though his multi-position versatility already makes him a strong candidate for a roster spot.

Pitching Notes: Mets, deGrom, Nationals, Ross, Twins, Happ, Cardinals, Hudson

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Mets ace Jacob deGrom likes the idea of spending his entire career with the Mets, per Mike Puma of the New York Post. Said the ace, “One thing I think that is really cool is whenever somebody spends their entire career with one team. You don’t see it happen a whole lot anymore, so it’s definitely something I have thought about and I guess we just have to see when that time comes.” DeGrom has an opt out after the 2022 season, which he could attempt to leverage into long-term security in New York. Otherwise, the Mets holds a $32.5MM team option for 2024, which would be deGrom’s age-36 season. Elsewhere in the National League…

  • The Nationals hope Joe Ross can unequivocally seize the fifth starter’s spot in their rotation, but manager Dave Martinez and pitching coach Jim Hickey are hesitant to declare the spot his after Ross sat out 2020, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Erick Fedde and Austin Voth could get into the starting mix if Ross isn’t quite ready to take a full workload from the jump. There’s no indication that the plans have changed much, however, as the Nats still plan on staying in-house to fill that role.
  • J.A. Happ tested positive for coronavirus upon his intake with the Twins, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes (via Twitter). Happ is asymptomatic for now. Assuming he remains that way, Happ should still be ready in time for the start of the season. The Twins signed Happ to an $8MM deal in January, and the Twins expect him to hold down a spot in the middle of their rotation.
  • Dakota Hudson is at the Cardinals spring camp site in Jupiter, FL and ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery, per Zachary Silver of MLB.com (via Twitter). Hudson is scheduled to begin playing catch on March 15th. He is still more likely than not to miss the 2021 season after undergoing surgery late in September.

 

Pitching Notes: Odorizzi, Paxton, Mets, Red Sox, Tigers

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Jake Odorizzi is the top name left from MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings, and it’s still not clear which (if any) team will meet the right-hander’s reported multi-year asking price. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes in his latest Q&A with readers that the Cardinals’ interest in Odorizzi is legitimate but not aggressive. Goold likens the Cards’ interest to their interest in Kyle Lohse more than a decade ago, when Lohse signed a one-year deal during Spring Training 2008 at a much lower rate than he’d initially sought in free agency. Of course, other teams would surely jump into the mix were Odorizzi to eventually settle for a one-year pact, and there’s no indication yet he plans to do so.

  • James Paxton is headed back to the Mariners on a one-year deal worth $8.5MM, but he drew interest from numerous other clubs before landing that deal. The Mets offered Paxton $6MM in guarantees, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that the M’s at one point expected the lefty to be out of their price range because of how impressive he looked during an offseason showcase. However, Divish adds that Paxton also had a desire to return to a Seattle setting where he’d previously felt comfortable and had success.
  • The Red Sox were among the teams in attendance for free-agent righty Chaz Roe’s bullpen session over the weekend, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. The 34-year-old reliever spent the previous three-plus seasons in Tampa Bay and is familiar with Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who used to be a Rays executive. Roe threw only 9 1/3 innings in 2020, but he was overall a solid bullpen option as a member of the Rays, with whom he pitched to a 3.54 ERA/3.73 SIERA in 119 1/3 frames.
  • The Tigers added Jose Urena to their rotation mix earlier in the offseason, but they might not be done yet. “We’re definitely looking for more pitching as we speak. I think at least one more starter would be ideal,” general manager Al Avila said Tuesday (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com).The right-handed Urena was mostly a starter as a Marlin from 2015-20, but he could wind up in a bullpen role with the Tigers, Avila noted. For now, Urena’s a candidate to join Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull and Michael Fulmer in Detroit’s starting staff. Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Daniel Norris and Tyler Alexander are also among in-house possibilities to rack up starts this year.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/13/21

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Some minor league moves from around the sport…

Latest Moves

  • The Cardinals have signed outfielder Matt Szczur to a minor league deal that contains an invite to their big league Spring Training camp, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports (via Twitter).  Szczur hit .231/.312/.355 over 667 plate appearances with the Cubs and Padres from 2014-18 but he hasn’t since returned to the majors.  The 31-year-old signed minor league contracts with the Diamondbacks prior to the 2019 season and the Phillies prior to 2020, with Philadelphia releasing Szczur back in June.

Earlier Today

  • The White Sox signed infielder Marco Hernandez to a minor league contract back in January, as originally noted by the transactions page for Triple-A East (formerly the International League).  Hernandez was released by the Red Sox in August, ending a six-year stint in the Boston organization that saw Hernandez hit .265/.300/.342 over 271 plate appearances in parts of three MLB seasons.  He was part of Boston’s 60-man player pool but didn’t see any big league action in 2020.  Hernandez played mostly second base with the Red Sox but he also has experience at third base and shortstop, so he will be competing for a utility infield job in Chicago’s camp.
  • The Angels announced that left-hander Dillon Peters was outrighted Triple-A at clearing waivers.  Peters will be invited to the team’s Spring Training camp after being designated for assignment last week.  The southpaw pitched in just one MLB game in 2020, getting hit for four runs (three earned) over 1 2/3 innings for the Angels.  A groundball specialist while coming up in the Marlins’ farm system, Peters has a 5.83 ERA and only a 16.7K% over 132 2/3 career Major League innings with Miami and Anaheim.
  • Diamondbacks left-hander Taylor Guilbeau has been outrighted to Triple-A, the team announced.  Guilbeau cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week, and he will also be invited to Arizona’s big league Spring Training camp.  Guilbeau posted a 2.70 ERA over 20 MLB innings with the Mariners from 2019-20, with the D’Backs acquiring the grounder specialist on a waiver claim in October.
  • The Twins announced that southpaw Brandon Waddell has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A after being designated for assignment last Thursday.  Waddell has been invited to the Twins’ Major League Spring Training camp.  A fifth-round pick for the Pirates in the 2015 draft, Waddell made his MLB debut in 2020, tossing 3 1/3 innings over two games with Pittsburgh.  Minnesota claimed Waddell off waivers from the Pirates in October.

Jack Flaherty Wins Arbitration Case Against Cardinals

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Right-hander Jack Flaherty has won his arbitration hearing with the Cardinals, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link).  Flaherty will receive the $3.9MM salary he was seeking in 2021, as opposed to the $3MM offered by St. Louis.

It’s a very nice result for Flaherty in his first year of arbitration eligibility, and it lines him up for significantly higher escalating salaries over his next two arb years.  MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Flaherty for a salary in the range of $2.2MM to $3MM, and while the Cardinals were even on the higher end of that projection, the arbiter ruled in Flaherty’s favor.

Flaherty was excellent in his first two full big league seasons, finishing fifth in NL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2018 and then fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2019.  By that standard, 2020 was a down year since Flaherty posted a 4.91 ERA and 9.4BB%, but many of his underlying metrics were still strong — a 28.8 K%, a 3.89 SIERA, and an above-average job at limiting hard contact.  Of course, 2020 was such an odd season that it’s hard to make any real conclusions about Flaherty’s performance, particularly given how the Cardinals had even more of a difficult time than most teams given their widespread COVID-19 outbreak and the heavy schedule full of make-up games down the stretch.

As noted by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, this marks the Cardinals’ first defeat in an arbitration hearing since back in 1994 (against former All-Star Gregg Jefferies).  “The current front office and ownership group had never lost an arbitration, and they once went more than 15 years without one,” Goold wrote.

Mets Trade Ali Sanchez To Cardinals

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The Cardinals have acquired catcher Ali Sanchez from the Mets in exchange for cash, per a club announcement. New York had designated Sanchez for assignment this week after adding Jonathan Villar on a big league deal. The Cardinals are now up to 39 players on their 40-man roster.

Sanchez, 24, made his MLB debut with the Mets in 2020, though he only tallied 10 plate appearances, going 1-for-9 in that time. He’s regarded as an above-average defensive catcher with solid bat-to-ball skills but minimal power. He split the 2019 season between Double-A and Triple-A, batting a combined .261/.326/.322 with a homer and 17 doubles. That production closely mirrors his tepid .259/.317/.331 slash in parts of six minor league seasons, though it should be noted that Sanchez has only fanned in 14.2 percent of his 1484 minor league plate appearances.

Sanchez threw out 44 percent of attempted base thieves against him in his last minor league season (2019) and boasts an even better 46 percent mark in his minor league career. He’s a potential backup option for Yadier Molina if the Cards want to give Andrew Knizner regular at-bats in Triple-A rather than have him sit on the big league bench and start once per week or so.

Phillies Trade Johan Quezada To Cardinals

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The Phillies announced Wednesday that they’ve traded right-hander Johan Quezada to the Cardinals in exchange for cash. The move opens up a 40-man spot for a Phillies club that still needs to make Didi Gregorius’ new two-year deal official. The Cardinals’ 40-man roster is now up to 38 players.

Quezada, 26, is a longtime Twins farmhand who inked a minor league deal with the Marlins last winter and went on to make his MLB debut late in the 2020 season. The righty tossed just three big league innings last year, showing a fastball that sat at 97 mph and has long been considered his best offering. He spent the bulk of the 2020 season at Miami’s alternate training site and landed with the Phillies on a waiver claim in late October.

Due to the lack of a minor league season in 2020, there’s little point of reference for Quezada’s work in 2020. He spent the 2019 campaign with the Twins’ Class-A Advanced affiliate, pitching to a 3.44 ERA and 3.59 FIP in 52 1/3 innings of relief with a below-average 21 percent strikeout rate and a 12 percent walk rate he’ll need to pare down to be effective at more advanced levels. Quezada did register a hearty 53.3 percent ground-ball rate in that 2019 season, however. If he can improve the location of his power repertoire while maintaining those ground-ball tendencies, there’s some clear upside — but he’s something of a project for the time being.

Cardinals Likely Done Spending

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The Cardinals have condensed an entire offseason’s worth of drama into the span of about two weeks, re-signing icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright, trading Dexter Fowler and striking a blockbuster deal to acquire Nolan Arenado. It’s been a frenzied period for president of baseball ops John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the staff, but it seems the bulk of the team’s heavy lifting is complete. Mozeliak suggested at yesterday’s Molina press conference that the team is “pretty confident with the team we have going into camp” (links via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat).

While the Cardinals may yet seek out some depth up the middle and in the rotation, any remaining additions are likely to be of the non-roster variety, it seems. That suggests that the Cardinals will head into the season with a young and/or unproven outfield mix consisting of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson, Lane Thomas, Justin Williams and Austin Dean. It also looks to rule out the possible addition of veteran starters Jake Odorizzi, James Paxton or Taijuan Walker — all three of whom (Odorizzi in particular) were rumored to be under consideration as of late last week.

There are still plenty of notable free-agent names that could settle for non-guaranteed deals with Spring Training just around the corner. Potential middle-infield targets for teams in need include Eric Sogard and Joe Panik, while veteran starters like Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Shoemaker and Anibal Sanchez are among the many free agents lingering on the open market. If the Cards do look to add some competition in the outfield, there are even more recognizable names available on that front. The Cardinals currently project to have a payroll in the $145MM range, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, although that could still tick upward a bit depending on the outcome of ace Jack Flaherty’s arbitration hearing.

Barring a change of heart from Mozeliak and/or a sudden ownership green-lighting of one more big free-agent strike, the Cards seem likely to lean on Flaherty, Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Kwang Hyun Kim and Carlos Martinez as their primary starters. Depth options include Daniel Ponce de Leon, Genesis Cabrera, Jake Woodford and Johan Oviedo — plus whichever arms the front office can reel in on non-roster invitations in the coming days or weeks.

Cardinals To Re-Sign Yadier Molina

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7:49pm: Molina will earn $9MM, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. He’s a client of MDR Sports Management.

7:24pm: It will be a one-year agreement, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets.

6:50pm: The Cardinals are nearing a deal to re-sign free-agent catcher Yadier Molina, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. This isn’t a remotely surprising development, as multiple sources reported a little over a week ago that Molina would remain in St. Louis.

Molina has been a Cardinal dating back to the 2000 draft, when they chose him in the fourth round. He debuted in the majors in 2004 and has since batted .281/.333/.404 with 160 home runs in 2,025 plate appearances, though simply citing his offensive numbers doesn’t do Molina justice. He is, after all, a nine time-All Star and a nine-time Gold Glove winner who has always been a highly regarded clubhouse leader and could wind up in the Hall of Fame. The soon-to-be 39-year-old Molina also has a pair of World Series on his resume, further adding to his mystique in St. Louis.

Molina received interest from other clubs earlier this winter, but a return to the Cardinals has looked like an inevitability for weeks. A reunion between the two has seemingly become even more probable since the Cardinals kicked their offseason into high gear in late January. Dating back to then, they have re-signed right-hander Adam Wainwright, who’s close with Molina and also ranks as a franchise icon, and swung a massive deal with the Rockies for superb third baseman Nolan Arenado.

Molina, assuming he returns, will once again line up as the Cardinals’ No. 1 catcher in 2021. While Molina isn’t the star he was in earlier years, he did bat .262/.303/.359 (passable relative to his position) in 156 plate appearances last season and throw out an eye-popping 45 percent of would-be base thieves. It appears he’ll once again mentor younger Cards backstop Andrew Knizner during the upcoming campaign.

Molina’s exit from the open market will take away another option at catcher, which is arguably devoid of starting-caliber free agents there. MLBTR ranked Molina as the 32nd-best overall free agent at the start of the offseason and predicted he would re-sign with the Cards on a one-year, $10MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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