MLBTR Podcast: Jack Flaherty Back To Detroit, Max Scherzer, And What’s Next For The Padres
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Tigers re-signing Jack Flaherty and reportedly still lurking on Alex Bregman (1:50)
- The Blue Jays signing Max Scherzer (16:35)
- The Rays signing Ha-Seong Kim (22:20)
- The Padres shifting Xander Bogaerts back to shortstop with Kim leaving (30:10)
- The Mariners re-signing Jorge Polanco and might be effectively done (36:10)
- The Reds acquire Taylor Rogers from the Giants and San Francisco might be effectively done (49:05)
Check out our past episodes!
- Ryan Pressly To The Cubs, Bregman’s Future, And Jurickson Profar – listen here
- Debating A Salary Cap, How To Improve Parity, More Dodgers Moves, And Anthony Santander – listen here
- The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, most clubs have a report date of February 12th or 13th. The Cubs and Dodgers are a bit earlier than most, on the 9th and 11th, respectively. That’s due to the fact that those clubs are heading to Tokyo, with exhibition games in mid-March, followed by regular season games against each other on March 18th and 19th. All the other teams have Opening Day scheduled for March 27th.
It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.
There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Randal Grichuk, Kenley Jansen, Harrison Bader, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and many more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon.
Angels: Robert Stephenson
Stephenson underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery with internal brace in late April. Given the 14-plus months required to recovery from such a procedure, he’s not likely to be ready in the early parts of the 2025 season.
Astros: Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Bennett Sousa
Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is targeting a return in the second half of 2025. France is recovering from shoulder surgery and hoping to return in July. Sousa’s timeline is less clear but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in April. Other possibilities include Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who are expected to start the season on the IL but returning in April or May still seems possible.
Athletics: Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk
Medina underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Waldichuk in May. Medina might miss the entire season while Waldichuk is likely to miss a few months at least.
Blue Jays: Angel Bastardo, Alek Manoah
The Jays grabbed Bastardo from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft in December, even though he had Tommy John surgery in June. Manoah also had Tommy John around that time and is hoping to be back by August.
Braves: Joe Jiménez
Jimenez had knee surgery in November with a timeline of eight to twelve months, so he might miss the entire season. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are also possibilities, though those will be more borderline. Strider had internal brace surgery in April, so returning in May is somewhat possible. Acuña is recovering from a torn ACL last year and it’s possible he’ll miss the first month or so of the season. Given how important both of those players are, Atlanta probably won’t put them on the 60-day IL unless it’s 100% certain that they can’t come back in the first 60 days of the season.
Brewers: Robert Gasser
Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will be looking at a late 2025 return even in a best-case scenario.
Diamondbacks: Kyle Nelson
Nelson’s timeline is unclear, but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May and missed the remainder of the 2024 season.
Dodgers: Gavin Stone, Brusdar Graterol, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan
Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October that will cause him to miss the entire year. Graterol also underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back until the second half of 2025. Each of Ryan, Hurt and Sheehan required Tommy John surgery in 2024: Ryan in August, Hurt in July and Sheehan in May.
Guardians: Sam Hentges, David Fry, Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan
Hentges required shoulder surgery in September, with an expected recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November with a more fluid timeline. He won’t be able to throw at all in 2025 but could be cleared for designated hitter action six to eight months from that surgery. Bieber is perhaps a borderline case, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Given his importance, the Guards may not transfer him to the 60-day IL until it’s assured that he won’t be back in the first 60 days of the season. Stephan underwent Tommy John surgery in March and perhaps has a chance to avoid the 60-day IL, depending on his progression.
Mariners: Matt Brash, Jackson Kowar
Brash underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Given the typical 14-month recovery timeline from that procedure, he would be looking at a midsummer return. However, it was reported in November that he’s ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. That’s an optimistic timeline but the Mariners will probably hold off moving him to the 60-day IL until the door is closed to an early return. Kowar underwent Tommy John in March, so an early return in 2025 is possible for him, depending on how his recovery is going.
Marlins: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez
Garrett just underwent UCL surgery last month and is going to miss the entire 2025 season. Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will miss at least part of the beginning of the 2025 campaign.
Mets: Christian Scott
Scott required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.
Nationals: Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson
Gray required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in July, meaning he’ll miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 season. Thompson required Tommy John surgery in March, so he has a better chance to make an early-season return if his recovery is going well.
Orioles: Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells
Bradish and Wells each required UCL surgery in June, so they’re both slated to miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.
Padres: Joe Musgrove
Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October and will therefore miss the entire 2025 season. However, the Padres only have 36 guys on their 40-man roster at the moment, so they’ll need to fill those spots before moving Musgrove to the 60-day IL.
Pirates: Dauri Moreta
Moreta required UCL surgery in March, so an early-season return is possible if his rehab is going well, though he could end up on the 60-day if the club goes easy with his ramp-up or he suffers any kind of setback.
Rangers: Josh Sborz
Sborz underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss the first two to three months of the upcoming season.
Rays: Nate Lavender, Ha-Seong Kim
The Rays took Lavender from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, even though he had Tommy John in May and will miss the start of the season. Kim’s status is more up in the air after he had shoulder surgery in October. Various reports have suggested he could return anywhere from April to July. The Rays made a sizable investment in Kim, their largest ever for a position player, so they probably won’t shelve him until they get more clarity on his status.
Red Sox: Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy
Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.
Reds: Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson
Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery in October and Williamson in September, so both are likely slated to miss the entire 2025 season.
Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long
Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April. On top of that, he underwent left hip labral repair surgery in July, with the club hoping to address both issues at the same time. It seems likely that he’ll miss some of the early 2025 schedule, but his IL placement will depend on how he’s been progressing.
White Sox: Jesse Scholtens
Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery in early March. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend on how he’s progressed since then and when the White Sox expect him back.
Yankees: Jonathan Loáisiga
Loáisiga underwent internal brace surgery in April, so he could potentially be back on the mound early in the 2025 season. It was reported in December that the Yankees are expecting him to be in the bullpen by late April or early May, so he’ll only end up on the 60-day IL if he suffers a bit of a setback.
Rays Designate Brandon Eisert For Assignment
The Rays have designated left-hander Brandon Eisert for assignment, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. That’s the corresponding move for infielder Ha-Seong Kim, whose two-year deal is now official.
Eisert, 27, had a brief spell on the Tampa roster. After being designated for assignment by the Blue Jays when that club signed Anthony Santander, the lefty was acquired by the Rays on January 23 in a cash deal. Now less than two weeks later, he’s been given the DFA treatment yet again.
His major league experience is very limited, with just three appearances last year marking the total of his big league track record. He has generally posted strong minor league numbers. From 2021 to 2024, he logged 246 2/3 innings across various levels, allowing 3.76 earned runs per nine. He struck out 29.1% of batters faced and only issued walks at a 7.7% clip.
In spite of those solid numbers on the farm, there is perhaps some skepticism that he can be as effective in the majors. His fastball only averaged 91.2 miles per hour during his MLB debut last year and he was only at 90.2 mph in Triple-A.
The Rays will now have a week of DFA limbo at most to assess the market on Eisert. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, any trade talks would need to take place in the next five days. Though the lack of velocity could be tamping down the enthusiasm somewhat, Eisert has been getting minor leaguers out for years now. If any club is intrigued enough to acquire him, the lefty still has a couple of options and barely a month of service time, meaning he could be used as affordable depth with roster flexibility for the foreseeable future.
Rays Sign Ha-Seong Kim
The Rays officially announced the signing of Ha-Seong Kim to a two-year free agent deal. The Boras Corporation client is reportedly guaranteed $29MM and can opt out after the first season. Kim will make a $13MM base salary for the upcoming season. He can earn an additional $2MM in performance bonuses, as he’ll make $10K for every plate appearance between 326 and 525. If Kim forgoes the opt-out, he’ll make $16MM in 2026. Lefty Brandon Eisert has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Kim’s free agency has been one of the more difficult ones to project on account of his uncertain health status. In August of last year, while with the Padres, he injured his right shoulder while diving back into first base on a pickoff attempt. He underwent surgery in October to repair the labrum in that shoulder. His agent, Scott Boras, has since suggested that Kim could be back on the field by April. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller gave a more nebulous and less optimistic answer of “May, June, July.”
Prior to that injury, there was an argument for Kim securing a four- or five-year deal, perhaps approaching nine figures. But the injury to his throwing shoulder made that harder to see. Though he’s a solid hitter, a big part of his appeal as a player is his defense. He has played most of his career at shortstop but also has significant time at second and third base with strong marks at all three spots. If he comes back from surgery with diminished arm strength and is less viable on the left side of the diamond, that would cut into his value.
As such, it seemed likely that he would sign a deal that allowed him to return to free agency next year, either on a one-year deal or a two-year pact with an opt-out. That would give him the chance to potentially return, prove his health and sign another contract with the injury in the rear-view mirror.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Kim for a straight one-year pact with a $12MM guarantee, though with the caveat he could follow players like Rhys Hoskins and Michael Conforto in securing a two-year pact with an opt-out. Hoskins got $34MM from the Brewers and Conforto $36MM from the Giants. Both are represented by Boras and Kim switched his representation to that agency in October, shortly after his injury.
The situations aren’t completely analogous. Both Hoskins and Conforto signed their deals after missing an entire season but were set to be healthy as those deals began. Kim, however, seems likely to start the season on the injured list. Kim’s guarantee comes in a bit below those guys, perhaps a reflection of the slightly different timeline.
That makes this an interesting gamble for the Rays. If Kim’s injury lingers towards the longer end of Preller’s timeline, it’s possible that they are going to be paying him $13MM for just half a season. If Kim doesn’t immediately get back in form, he could then forego his opt-out and stick around for 2026 with an even higher salary. For what it’s worth, both Hoskins and Conforto had tepid results in the first years of their respective deals and did not use their opt-outs.
The upside for the Rays is that they could get a really strong player for a relatively modest price. Kim struggled at the plate in 2021, his first season after coming over from Korea, but has been above average in each of the three seasons since then. He stepped to plate 1,678 times over the 2022 to 2024 campaigns, with his 11% walk rate and 17.9% strikeout rate both a few ticks better than average. While not a huge power threat, he got to double-digit homers in each of those campaigns, hitting 39 overall. His combined batting line of .250/.336/.385 led to a wRC+ of 106.
As mentioned, Kim is a strong defender at multiple positions. He also stole 72 bases over the past three years. Putting it all together, FanGraphs has considered him to be roughly a four-win player. He was credited with 3.6 fWAR in 2022 and 4.2 the year after. Last year, the injury limited him to just 121 games, so his fWAR tally came in a bit lighter at 2.6.
The Rays have some question marks at shortstop. Wander Franco was supposed to be the long-term answer there but he hasn’t played since August of 2023, when heinous allegations of sexual abuse against minors emerged. The legal process is still playing out on those charges but it would be surprising if he ever returns to the majors.
Players like Taylor Walls, José Caballero and Osleivis Basabe are on the roster but each of them have posted lackluster offensive numbers in their respective careers thus far. Prospect Carson Williams is probably the new shortstop of the future but he might still need some more time in the minors. He’s still not yet 22 years old, with that birthday coming up in June, and spent all of last year at Double-A. He did get into four Triple-A games late in 2023 but the Rays might want to send him there for a slightly longer stint before giving him his major league debut.
For the Rays, ideally, Kim can return relatively early in the year and play like his old self. Junior Caminero seems likely to take over the third base job this year, with Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz the projected regulars on the other side of the infield. That could give them a formidable infield for the majority of the season.
If that plan comes to fruition, Kim would likely opt-out and head back to free agency. He would be leaving $16MM on the table but would be looking for a larger guarantee on a multi-year deal. The Rays could then issue him a qualifying offer, which would probably be around $22MM or so. The QO was $21.05MM this offseason but usually goes up over time due to salaries increasing. The QO number is calculated by averaging out the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That could allow the Rays to recoup draft pick compensation and then perhaps hand over the shortstop job to Williams.
There are other less-ideal outcomes on the other end of the spectrum. It’s possible Kim doesn’t return until the second half. Or he returns at some point but his arm strength isn’t quite what it was, making him an imperfect shortstop solution. Or perhaps Williams seizes the job before Kim gets back, leaving him as something of a high-priced utility guy. In those or other imperfect scenarios, the odds of him staying for 2026 would increase. That would naturally be an underwater deal at that point, since he would have walked away otherwise.
That wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the world, depending on the specifics. The Cubs got an okay-but-not-great season out of Cody Bellinger in 2024, then saw him forego an opt-out opportunity. They were still able to dump most of the remainder of the contract on the Yankees. The Brewers, however, are seemingly stuck with Hoskins after his mediocre season. That has perhaps been part of the reason why they don’t have a lot of financial wiggle room this winter.
The Rays are a low-spending club, far more like the Brewers than the Cubs or the Giants. Kim’s $13MM salary will actually make him the highest-paid player on the team. Though they’ve given out some big extensions over the years, this is the third-largest guarantee they’ve given to a free agent, behind the $40MM they gave Zach Eflin and the $30MM they gave Charlie Morton.
It’s unclear exactly what sort of payroll parameters they have for 2025. Cot’s Baseball Contracts had them at $99MM on Opening Day last year. They ended up moving some players making notable salaries at the deadline, such as Eflin, Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes. This offseason, they flipped Jeffrey Springs to the Athletics but then signed Danny Jansen and now Kim.
RosterResource now projects them for a $90MM payroll this year. That’s a bit below 2024 but they also might have extra financial concerns apart from player salaries. Due to the hurricane damage to Tropicana Field, they are going to be playing the 2025 season at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida. That’s normally the home of the Tampa Tarpons, the Single-A affiliate of the Yankees. That is presumably leading to some unexpected moving costs and perhaps less ticket revenue for the upcoming season. Their plans for next year and beyond are murky as well.
It’s an interesting gambit for the club to take with its limited resources. For clubs still looking for middle infield help, Alex Bregman is a potential option due to his reported willingness to play second base. Apart from him, Jose Iglesias, Paul DeJong and Brendan Rodgers are some of the notable free agents.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the two-year deal, $29MM guarantee and opt-out. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported the specific annual breakdown and the incentives. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the bonuses start at 325 plate appearances. The Associated Press reported the $10K per plate appearance specifics.
Rays Acquire Alex Faedo
The Rays have acquired right-hander Alex Faedo from the Tigers, per announcements from both clubs. Faedo had been designated for assignment by the Tigers last week when they signed Tommy Kahnle. The Rays are sending minor league catcher Enderson Delgado and cash to Detroit. Infielder Osleivis Basabe has been designated for assignment by the Rays in a corresponding move, which MLBTR covered here.
Getting Faedo, 29, is a buy-low move for the Rays. The Tigers grabbed him with the 18th overall pick in 2017 and Baseball America ranked the righty as the #50 prospect in the entire league going into 2018.
But the big league results haven’t matched up to that prospect billing just yet. Faedo has thrown 175 2/3 innings for the Tigers over the past three seasons, allowing 4.51 earned runs per nine. His 20.9% strikeout rate and 9.7% have both been a bit below league average. He is now out of options and would have had a hard time holding a roster spot in Detroit all year, so he got bumped off.
The Rays are seemingly more willing to carry Faedo on the roster, since they are giving up a prospect and cash to get him. Perhaps the hope is that Faedo is in the process of finding a home in the bullpen. He has worked as a starter and a reliever in his big league career, but with a 5.00 ERA out of the rotation and 3.44 ERA from the bullpen. His 22.6% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate as a reliever aren’t outstanding numbers, but better than his 20.2% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate as a starter.
Though he hasn’t had huge punchout stuff, he’s had some intriguing numbers in terms of limiting damage. His 34.4% hard hit rate allowed last year was in the 82nd percentile of qualified pitchers, according to Statcast. His barrel rate was in the 76th percentile and his average exit velocity 65th. His 2023 numbers in those categories were fairly similar.
His out-of-options status will make things a bit challenging for the Rays, a club that normally likes to rotate pitchers on and off the roster with regularity. RosterResource projects the club to run a six-man rotation of Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen. That leaves a seven-man bullpen consisting of Pete Fairbanks, Edwin Uceta, Garrett Cleavinger, Manuel Rodríguez, Mason Montgomery, Mike Vasil and Faedo. Montgomery is the only one of that relief group that can be optioned and RR has the out-of-options Cole Sulser listed in Triple-A as of this writing.
The roster might not shake out exactly like that, as spring performance and health can certainly change things, but there’s not a ton of flexibility in the relief group at the moment. But if the Rays manage to keep Faedo in the mix, there will be a long-term payoff. He has just under two years of service time at the moment, meaning he can be controlled for five seasons if he continues to hang onto his roster spot and hasn’t yet qualified for arbitration.
For the Tigers, losing Faedo probably stings a little bit, but at least they were able to recoup some potential future value out of a guy who got squeezed off the fringes of the roster. Delgado, 20, was an international signing of the Rays out of Venezuela. Back in July, Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice of FanGraphs ranked Delgado as the #37 prospect in the Rays’ system. That report suggests Delgado could carve out a future backup catching role based mostly on his defense, particularly his throwing arm.
The FanGraphs report gives less praise for his offense. He has slashed .215/.337/.322 over three minor league seasons, though he showed some improvement last year with a line of .259/.382/.400. Given his age and that he still hasn’t climbed higher than Single-A, he’ll be a long-term play for the Tigers.
Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Faedo was going to the Rays for Delgado and cash, prior to the official announcements.
Rays Designate Osleivis Basabe For Assignment
The Rays announced Monday that they’ve designated infielder Osleivis Basabe for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to newly acquired righty Alex Faedo, whose previously reported trade from Detroit to Tampa Bay has now been formally announced by the clubs.
Basabe, 24, made his big league debut with Tampa Bay in 2023, which now stands as his lone season with MLB work. He appeared in 31 games and tallied 94 plate appearances, hitting .218/.277/.310 during that span. It certainly wasn’t a great debut effort, but the .296/.351/.426 slash (95 wRC+) Basabe had posted in Triple-A Durham was a good bit more encouraging — particularly for someone whom scouting reports praise as a solid defender at either position on the left side of the infield.
The 2024 campaign, however, saw Basabe take a step back in virtually every meaningful category. Those offensive rate stats plummeted to .248/.293/.336 in Triple-A — a drop that left him about 36% worse than league-average at the plate, by measure of wRC+. His walk rate fell from 7.3% to 4.9% as his strikeout rate climbed from 15.5% to 18%. Basabe averaged 89 mph with a 39.7% hard-hit rate with Durham in 2023 but was only at 86.3 mph and 31.3%, respectively, in 2024.
Though Basabe’s 2024 season was nightmarish, he’s only a year removed from ranking as a top-10 prospect in a strong Rays system. He also has a minor league option remaining, so any team that acquires him would be able to send him to the minors without first needing to pass him through waivers. He’s capable of playing any of shortstop, third base or second base, which should add to his appeal. Basabe hits from the right side but has traditionally had more consistent offensive production in right-on-right matchups than he has versus lefties.
The Rays will have five days to trade Basabe. At that point, he’d need to be placed on waivers, as outright waivers are 48-hour process themselves and the maximum window for a DFA to be resolved is one week.
What Other Competitive Balance Round Draft Picks Could Be Traded This Winter?
The Competitive Balance Rounds are a pair of bonus rounds within the MLB draft, designed to give an extra pick to the game’s smaller-market teams. Teams that fall within either the bottom 10 in revenues and market size are eligible, and since 2017, the league determined the eligible teams based on a formula involving market score, revenues, and winning percentage. The first of the two Competitive Balance Rounds (CBR-A) comes right before the start of the second round, and CBR-B comes right after the second round. For the 2025 draft, a total of 15 teams will gain an extra pick, and their order within their respective round is determined by their win totals in the 2024 season.
With that explanation out of the way, let’s get to the fun stuff — these picks can be traded. Specifically, a CBR selection can traded exactly once, and to any team in the league. Since these are the only MLB draft picks that are eligible to be dealt, it has become increasingly common to see teams move these extra selections as part of larger trade packages for established talent.
Three CBR picks in the 2024 draft changed hands due to trades, most prominently the Orioles’ inclusion of the 34th overall selection as part of the trade package sent to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes. This offseason has already seen three CBR picks in the 2025 draft dealt, and this post will explore the possibility that some other teams with CBR selections might move these picks to fill a more immediate need.
To cover the broad reason why any of these teams might not make a trade, it’s simply that draft picks are a very valuable asset unto themselves. Controllable young talent is particularly important for lower-revenue clubs that usually don’t splurge on expensive free agents or trade targets, which is part of the reasons why the Competitive Balance Rounds exist in the first place. Clubs are naturally pretty reluctant to move these CBR picks unless the right opportunity presents itself on the trade market.
(First, some notes on the draft order. The first 75 places in the 2025 draft have largely been established, since the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers all played for teams who were either luxury-tax payors in 2024, or aren’t revenue-sharing recipients. That means that if Nick Pivetta signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get their compensation pick after CBR-B. If Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman sign elsewhere, the Mets’ and Astros’ compensation picks will fall after the fourth round. Also, because the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all exceeded the second luxury-tax tier in 2024, their first-round picks were dropped by 10 spots in the draft order. This means that these three big spenders are all technically selecting within CBR-A, but obviously these aren’t official CBR picks. The only potential change would be if a team that signs Alonso, Bregman or Pivetta surrenders its second-round pick to do so.)
Onto the selections….
Brewers (33rd overall, CBR-A): Milwaukee is actually making consecutive picks in the draft, as they received a compensatory pick when Willy Adames rejected the team’s qualifying offer and signed with the Giants. Owning the 32nd overall pick might make the Brew Crew slightly more opening to trading the 33rd overall pick, perhaps to add pitching or to the infield in the wake of Adames’ departure. The Brewers could considering adding their CBR pick as a sweetener to try and move Rhys Hoskins‘ contract, yet it’s less likely that the team moves a valuable draft selection just as part of a salary dump.
Tigers (34th overall, CBR-A): The Tigers are considered to be one of the top suitors remaining for Alex Bregman, and signing a qualified free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft. Losing the 63rd overall pick means the Tigers almost surely wouldn’t also deal their CBR pick. If Bregman signed elsewhere, it’s more plausible that Detroit could consider trading its CBR pick for a big right-handed bat, but still probably on the unlikely side.
Mariners (35th overall, CBR-A): It was almost exactly a year ago that the M’s traded their CBR-B pick in the 2024 draft to the White Sox as part of the Gregory Santos deal. Santos’ injury-plagued first season in Seattle could make the Mariners more hesitant to an even higher CBR selection, yet this tradable pick might an asset the M’s can use within an overall difficult offseason market for the team. The Mariners are working with limited payroll space and most every team in baseball would prefer win-now help over prospects, seemingly leaving the M’s dealing with a lot of offers for their starting pitchers. With Seattle so reluctant to deal from its excellent rotation, offering up the 35th overall pick in trade talks might help get things moving.
Twins (36th overall, CBR-A): Speaking of front offices without much financial flexibility, Minnesota has had a very quiet offseason, with most of the headlines focused on a potential sale of the franchise rather than any significant roster moves. With reportedly around only $5MM or so in payroll space, the Twins might have to make some trades just to free up more money for more trade possibilities. Moving the CBR-A pick could be added to the Twins’ list of possibilities, but the team has enough potential trade candidates on the active roster that moving a big league-ready player is probably their preference over dealing away a draft pick.
Rays (37th overall, CBR-A): It might not come as much surprise that Tampa is the team that has acquired the most CBR picks over the last seven seasons. As you’ll see shortly, the Rays added to that total with the 42nd overall pick of the 2025 draft. Like with the Brewers and the Adames compensatory selection, having an “extra” pick in a sense might make the Rays more open to dealing this pick here, but that hasn’t been Tampa Bay’s style.
Reds (now Dodgers, 41st overall, CBR-A): This pick was already moved, as Cincinnati traded its selection along with outfield prospect Mike Sirota to Los Angeles in exchange for Gavin Lux.
Athletics (now Rays, 42nd overall, CBR-A): Another swapped pick, as the A’s moved the 42nd overall pick to Tampa Bay as part of the Jeffrey Springs trade. This move in particular highlights the speculative nature of this post, since going into the offseason, the Athletics seemingly wouldn’t have been on the radar as a team likely to trade its CBR pick.
Marlins (43th overall, CBR-A): There’s basically zero chance the Fish move a draft pick in the midst of their extensive rebuild.
Guardians (70th overall, CBR-B): The reigning AL Central champs have generally gone chalk with their CBR selections, not acquiring or trading any picks until this year. Adding an experienced outfielder or middle infielder for the 70th pick might work on paper, as the Guards are another team with two CBR selections and not much spending capacity to address its roster needs.
Orioles (71st overall, CBR-B): The idea for this post came about after writing another piece yesterday about how the O’s might be well-suited to trade this pick.
Diamondbacks (now Guardians, 72nd overall, CBR-B): Arizona sent the 72nd pick and Slade Cecconi to Cleveland to bring Josh Naylor to the desert.
Royals (73rd overall, CBR-B): Kansas City traded its CBR-A selection just hours before the 2024 draft began, moving the 39th overall pick and third base prospect Cayden Wallace to the Nationals for Hunter Harvey. While Harvey battled injuries and wasn’t much of a help in the Royals’ run to the ALDS, the fact that the team made such an aggressive midseason deal in pursuit of a playoff spot might hint that the front office is willing to make another bold swap involving this pick. Outfield help remains the Royals’ biggest need at this point in the winter.
Cardinals (74th overall, CBR-B): Outgoing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has spoken about wanting to leave a “clean slate” for new PBO Chaim Bloom. Between that and the Cardinals’ stated goal of refocusing on player development, it seems unlikely St. Louis would look to move its CBR pick.
Pirates (75th overall, CBR-B): The Bucs have had a relatively quiet offseason, with the team’s typical lack of big spending. In theory, trading a CBR pick might be a helpful way for the Pirates to add talent without breaking the budget, though Ben Cherington has yet to explore this tactic during his time as Pittsburgh’s general manager.
Rockies (76th overall, CBR-B): While the Rockies aren’t technically in an official rebuild, they’re not exactly building up after losing 204 games over the last two seasons. Using this pick to add another young player to the farm system seems far more likely than the Rox trading the pick away.
Rays Granted Fourth Option Year On Jonathan Aranda
The Rays have been granted a fourth option year on infielder Jonathan Aranda, according to a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
Typically, players have three option seasons with one used each season during which the player spends at least 20 days on optional assignment in the minor leagues. A player is considered to be on optional assignment when on a club’s 40-man roster but sent to the minor leagues while not on a rehab assignment. Aranda, 27 in May, was added to the club’s 40-man prior to the 2022 season and has been optioned to the minor leagues in each of the past three campaigns, with at least 20 days in the minors each season. Under normal circumstances, that would leave him out of options headed into the 2025 campaign, meaning the Rays would have to expose him to waivers before attempting to return him to the minor leagues.
Occasionally, however, teams are granted a fourth option year on certain players, typically due to the player missing significant time with injury. MLB.com explains that players with less than five full professional seasons (defined as at least 90 days on a major or minor league active roster) are eligible for a fourth option year. That applies to Aranda, who played full-season ball for the first time during the 2021 season. Fourth option years are typically granted to teams on players who have missed significant time due to injury during their option years, which also applies to Aranda after he spent three months on the IL last year between multiple trips to the injured list.
The fourth option year affords the Rays additional flexibility regarding their positional mix this year as they look to bounce back from a difficult 2024 season. Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Danny Jansen, and Ben Rortvedt are the only players locked into Opening Day roster spots for the Rays who cannot be optioned to the minors, though that group will also include non-roster slugger Eloy Jimenez if he makes the team out of camp. With a number of intriguing youngsters in the upper levels of the minors like infielders Curtis Mead and Osleivis Basabe as well as outfielders Kameron Misner and Jake Magnum, it’s easy to imagine the Rays trying to maximize their roster by shuffling between those youngsters and their optionable major leaguers. Aranda is now included in that group, and with just 333 big league plate appearances under his belt to this point in his career it’s certainly feasible that the Rays utilize that fourth option year in the event he faces the sorts of struggles that many players do early in their big league careers.
That’s not to say Aranda doesn’t figure to be a key part of the club’s lineup, of course. The infielder currently figures to serve as the club’s Opening Day DH given the presence of Diaz and Lowe at first and second base respectively, but his solid .234/.308/.430 slash line (113 wRC+) in 44 games for the Rays last year was promising even for that role. More exciting than Aranda’s slash line was the improvements he made relative to 2023, as he cut his strikeout rate from 30.1% to just 22.4% while also hitting for more power has his barrel rate jumped from 5.3% to a fantastic 16.5%. That massive barrel rate would have been fifth in the majors last year if he had enough plate appearances to qualify and may not be entirely sustainable over a full season, but it’s simultaneously easy to imagine last year’s .264 BABIP coming up significantly given that it was a drop of more than 60 points relative to 2023.
Barry Larkin Joins Group Attempting To Get MLB Franchise In Orlando
The Orlando Dreamers announced earlier this week that Hall of Famer Barry Larkin has joined the organization, which has the goal of getting an MLB franchise in the city. Larkin, who now lives in Orlando, has the title of MLB ambassador with the Dreamers. Pat Williams, the late former executive for the NBA’s Orlando Magic, co-founded the Dreamers in 2019 as an effort to get an MLB franchise. While Williams passed away last summer, the organization has continued that goal.
“I spent considerable time talking to key people in Major League Baseball, including Commissioner Manfred, before committing to join the Orlando Dreamers’ effort,” Larkin said in the press release. “There were many phone calls to (co-founder Jim Schnorf), asking detailed questions concerning the approach, the accomplishments to date, and the strategies moving forward. It became immediately apparent that Orlando has the most compelling market in the country to be the next MLB franchise location. … At this stage in my career, nothing could be more exciting than being a key part of this effort in my adopted home of Orlando, Florida.”
Larkin is a Cincinnati native who spent his entire 19-year big league career with his hometown Reds. He won the 1995 NL MVP award behind a .319 average and Gold Glove defense at shortstop. Larkin made 12 All-Star teams, won the Silver Slugger award on nine occasions, and collected a trio of Gold Glove awards. He was elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA in 2012, his third year on the ballot.
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has said on multiple occasions that he hopes to finalize plans for expansion from 30 to 32 teams by the end of his tenure. He plans to retire when his current contract expires in January 2029. While it’s highly unlikely that expansion teams would be on the field by the ’29 season, it’s possible that host cities could be settled by that point with the league moving to 32 teams early in the 2030s. Manfred has suggested that expansion would be on the back burner until the A’s and Rays’ stadium situations were finalized.
The A’s plan to be in Las Vegas in time for the 2028 season. The Rays seemed to have a long-term stadium plan in St. Petersburg, but the devastating hurricane in the area last fall has thrown those plans into question. That combined with a changed county council makeup after Election Day led the county to delay approval of bonds that’d finance the stadium. The Rays have claimed that makes it impossible to have the new stadium complete for the 2028 season. The team is responsible for cost overruns on the project, which it says will be exorbitant with construction going until 2029.
While Pinellas County approved the bonds last month, the Rays reiterated that the delay has proven too costly. They’re pushing for more public funding as a result, which the county has indicated it is unwilling to approve. The Rays have until March 31 to meet various construction benchmarks on the project or the bond agreement will automatically be nullified. They are committed to play at Tropicana Field through the 2028 season. The Trop was severely damaged by the hurricane and it is unclear whether it’ll be playable by 2026. The Rays will play their ’25 home games at Tampa’s George M. Steinbrenner Field, home of the Yankees’ Low-A affiliate.
Larkin said at his introductory press conference that the Orlando group is open to pursuing both an expansion franchise or a potentially relocated one (alluding to the Rays’ situation). Manfred was asked about the possibility of relocating the Rays in November. He replied that MLB remained “focused on our franchise in Tampa Bay.”
Rays Sign Jonathan Hernandez To Minor League Deal
The Rays announced their list of non-roster invitees to MLB camp. Reliever Jonathan Hernández signed a minor league deal today and will be in big league Spring Training. He’d elected free agency at the start of the offseason.
Hernández, 28, joins the third organization of his career. He’d been a career-long member of the Rangers until last summer. Hernández signed with Texas as an amateur free agent and got to the big leagues in 2019. He had a strong showing in the shortened 2020 season, working to a 2.90 earned run average over 31 innings. An elbow injury required Tommy John surgery early the following year.
That kept Hernández out of action into the second half in 2022. He returned to post a 2.97 ERA through 30 1/3 frames, picking up his four career saves along the way. Hernández’s strikeout and walk rates were underwhelming, which proved a precursor for regression in the coming seasons. He has allowed 5.40 earned runs per nine in each of the last two years.
Texas pushed Hernández off the roster at last year’s trade deadline. He carried a 5.05 ERA over a career-high 41 innings at the time. The Mariners claimed him off waivers. Hernández allowed three runs over 2 1/3 innings with Seattle before the M’s designated him for assignment. He cleared waivers that time around and spent the rest of the season in Triple-A.
Since the start of 2023, Hernández owns a 5.40 ERA across 75 frames. His 21.5% strikeout percentage is slightly below average, while he has walked nearly 13% of batters faced. Hernández has kept the ball on the ground on half the batted balls he has allowed, though. He averages nearly 97 MPH on his sinker but hasn’t found success with that pitch; opponents have respectively hit .350 and .323 against it over the past two seasons. Hernández has fared a lot better with his slider, which he uses roughly half the time, and his infrequently deployed changeup.