Are The Padres A Trade Fit For Nomar Mazara?
- The Padres had some interest in Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara last summer, so Dennis Lin and Jamey Newberg of the Athletic (subscription required) tried to figure out a Mazara trade package that could help both clubs, in a lengthy exploration of how San Diego and Texas match up as trade partners. Some obvious links exist between the two franchises — Padres GM A.J. Preller and new manager Jayce Tingler both came to San Diego from the Texas organization, giving the Friars a lot of familiarity with Rangers players on both the MLB and minor league rosters. Lin and Newberg settle on a scenario that would see Mazara and right-hander Jonathan Hernandez go to the Rangers for Joey Lucchesi and catching prospect Blake Hunt.
Rangers, Phillies Reportedly Interested In Josh Donaldson
As the offseason drew near, it became obvious that star third baseman Josh Donaldson could again be a major early target. Teams wishing for top-level production without the lengthy commitment will be vying for the veteran.
At least two clubs — the Rangers and Phillies — are already making their interest known, according to reports from Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter) and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Both were among the best on-paper fits entering the open market, as we noted in the course of our list of the top fifty free agents.
Before those and other lurking organizations can put in their bids, Donaldson will have to formally decline the qualifying offer he was issued by the Braves. That’s a formality, but it’ll keep the offers off the table until November 14th. (Interested teams can chat with Donaldson’s reps in the meantime, it’s worth noting.)
[RELATED: 2019-20 Offseason Calendar]
Last winter, the Braves were able to lure Donaldson with a one-year, $24MM offer. But that came on the heels of an injury-riddled campaign for the former MVP, who more than made good on the hefty bet placed by the Atlanta organization with a strong and healthy 2019 season.
Donaldson is a month away from his 34th birthday. And he wasn’t quite at the height of his powers in the just-completed campaign. But he was an outstanding performer against any measure other than his own top-of-class ceiling. Over 659 plate appearances, Donaldson turned in a .259/.379/.521 batting line (132 wRC+) with 37 home runs and a healthy 15.2% walk rate.
It wasn’t just a return with the bat. Depending upon one’s defensive metric of choice, he was either a good or excellent performer at the hot corner, resulting in something like a 5 or 6 WAR season. If you’re not a fan of the glove grades … let’s just say the former Athletics and Blue Jays superstar pretty much looked like his old self in all respects.
Donaldson is a fiery leader who would certainly light a spark for these or other organizations. He’s also going to hit the market carrying draft compensation as an added cost of signing him. That always must be factored into an open-market offer, though it’s perhaps of particular note for the Rangers and Phillies. The former team is arguably not quite ready for a full push for contention, though the new Texas field (synthetic though it may be) could desperately use some of the rain that Donaldson is wont to bring. As for the Phils, they’re putting out word that they’re loath to surrender more draft picks this offseason. There may be something to that, but it’s also plainly a wiser public statement than last winter’s unintentional slogan.
Rangers Outright Tim Federowicz
The Rangers have outrighted catcher Tim Federowicz, per a club announcement. He elected free agency rather than taking an assignment at Triple-A.
The 32-year-old Federowicz joined the Rangers in a June trade with the Indians and ultimately added to Texas’ offensive struggles behind the plate. He wound up batting just .160/.213/.347 in 83 trips to the plate with the Rangers, though he did hit four home runs. The well-traveled Federowicz produced even less for the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate in Nashville, where he slashed .140/.190/.193 in 63 plate appearances. But he was far better with the Indians’ top minor league club, hitting .278/.353/.411 in 103 PA.
Factoring in his latest minor league performance, Federowicz owns an impressive .297/.367/.487 line with 69 HRs in almost 2,100 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level. Considering his next contract is very likely to be a minor league deal, he’ll try to build on his lifetime Triple-A numbers next year and put a below-average 2019 season behind him.
Mariners Claim Phillips Valdez
The Mariners announced today that they have claimed righty Phillips Valdez off waivers from the Rangers. He becomes the latest player to be pared from the Texas 40-man roster.
Valdez, who’ll soon turn 28, cracked the majors briefly last year for 16 innings of relief. His fastball-change combination wasn’t exceedingly effective in his first taste at the game’s highest level, as he generated only an 8.9% swinging-strike rate, but Valdez showed that he can induce grounders against the world’s best hitters (53.3%).
Though he debuted in a relief capacity, Valdez has spent much of his time in the upper minors as a starter. It remains to be seen how the M’s will use him — or even whether they’ll keep him on their 40-man roster all offseason long — but he will help pad the Seattle organization’s pitching depth.
Rangers To Decline Club Options On Nate Jones, Shawn Kelley, Welington Castillo
The Rangers are planning to decline their 2020 club options on newly-acquired catcher Welington Castillo and right-handers Nate Jones and Shawn Kelley, The Athletic’s Levi Weaver reports (Twitter link). Castillo will be bought out for $500K rather than his $8MM salary for 2020. Jones will receive a $1.25MM buyout rather than $3.75MM, and Kelley will get $250K in buyout money rather than $2.5MM in 2020.
Both Castillo and Jones came from the White Sox in trades that were ultimately more about the international bonus money that came into the Rangers’ coffers rather than anything the two veteran players brought to the table. Jones underwent right forearm surgery last season and was already on the 60-day injured list at the time of the deadline day trade, never suiting up for Texas in a game. With this much uncertainty surrounding his health, and Jones’ checkered injury history also looming as a big factor, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Rangers decided to move on and explore less-risky relief options.
As for Kelley, he said in September that he was planning to retire if his option wasn’t picked up, so today’s news could mark the end of the right-hander’s Major League career. Kelley spent time on the IL due to a biceps injury and a bacterial infection last season, and posted a 4.94 ERA, 8.2 K/9, and 3.91 K/BB rate over 47 1/3 innings when healthy. If this is indeed the end, Kelley has enjoyed a very solid career over 11 seasons as a Major League reliever, posting a 3.80 ERA over 464 2/3 IP and banking over $25MM in career earnings.
Rangers Acquire Welington Castillo
The Rangers have acquired catcher Welington Castillo and international draft bonus pool money from the White Sox in exchange for minor league outfielder and corner infielder Jonah McReynolds, as per Rangers executive VP of communications John Blake (Twitter link). Texas has also outrighted left-hander Jesse Biddle and outfielder Zack Granite to Triple-A, with Biddle first being reinstated from the 60-day injured list.
The Rangers will get $250K in international bonus funds, as per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link), which seems to have been the team’s real incentive for the trade. Texas is expected to decline Castillo’s $8MM club option and instead pay him a $500K buyout.
In essence, the White Sox decided to save that $500K of Major League payroll in favor of giving up $250K in international money. It could be that the Sox also simply decided McReynolds was of more interest to them than any other prospects who might arise on the international market.
Castillo became expendable in Chicago after he hit only .209/.267/.417 over 251 PA in 2019, losing playing time to James McCann in the process. This comes on the heels of a 2018 season that saw Castillo post some respectable numbers (94 OPS+, 96 wRC+) for a catcher over 181 PA, though that year was marred by an 80-game PED suspension.
While the $8MM salary was too rich for the Rangers’ liking, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see the team have an interest in Castillo at a lower price. While Castillo struggled at the plate last year, his numbers still represent an improvement over what the current Texas catching corps (Jeff Mathis, Jose Trevino, Isiah Kiner-Falefa) produced in 2019. Then again, the Rangers could also choose to stand pat at catcher since they have several other areas to address this winter.
McReynolds, who turns 24 in December, was a 13th-round pick for the Rangers in the 2016 draft. He has a .217/.285/.322 slash line over 637 PA in his first four pro seasons, the last three of which have been spent at low A-ball. He has played all over the diamond as a professional, though spent much of 2019 focused on third base and first base.
Rangers Could Look Into Red Sox's High-Price Pitching
- The Red Sox could be facing payroll constraints and have a number of high-priced but effective starting pitchers. With that in mind, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News hears that the Rangers have internally kicked around the idea of pursuing one of those arms in trade. Texas is planning to increase payroll in 2020, after all. While much of that attention has focused on a potential pursuit of Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon in free agency, that flexibility can certainly be put to use in trade as well. Grant speculates that any of Chris Sale, David Price, or Nathan Eovaldi could be targets. Of course, given the caliber of players (particularly Sale and Price) and amount of money involved, any trade scenario would be extremely complex.
Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers
The Rangers didn’t need a new ballpark, but they got one. They will have to improve in several parts of the roster if they’re to win in the first season at the just-built facility.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Elvis Andrus: $43MM through 2022 (can opt out of remainder of contract this offseason)
- Rougned Odor: $36MM through 2022 (includes buyout of 2023 club option)
- Shin-Soo Choo: $21MM through 2020
- Lance Lynn: $19MM through 2021 (includes $1MM signing bonus payment)
- Jose Leclerc: $13.75MM through 2022 (includes buyouts of 2023-24 club options)
- Mike Minor: $9.5MM through 2020
- Jesse Chavez: $4MM through 2020
- Jeff Mathis: $3MM through 2020
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Danny Santana – $3.9MM
- Delino DeShields – $2.4MM
- Nomar Mazara – $5.7MM
- Rafael Montero – $900K
- Joey Gallo – $4.0MM
- Jesse Biddle – $600K
- Non-tender candidates: Deshields, Biddle
Options
- Nate Jones: $3.75MM club option ($1.25MM buyout)
- Shawn Kelley: $2.5MM club option ($250K buyout)
Free Agents
[Texas Rangers depth chart | Texas Rangers payroll outlook]
The Rangers have sat in an uncomfortable middle ground for the past three seasons, with a pair of 78-84 campaigns wrapped around a 67-95 dud. Payroll has moved south, but still topped $160MM by the end of the 2018 season and sat at $118MM on Opening Day in 2019.
Unsurprisingly, the roster construction efforts have mirrored the broader situation. The Rangers have spent some money and hit on a few free agents. Mike Minor and Lance Lynn succeeded beyond the wildest expectations on three-year deals while last year’s crop of low-cost talent delivered significant contributions from Hunter Pence, Danny Santana, and Logan Forsythe. But the club has also whiffed on others. Jeff Mathis, Asdrubal Cabrera, Shawn Kelley, Shelby Miller, and Zach McAllister absorbed a decent amount of payroll without delivering much in return. While Joey Gallo has emerged as a star-level performer, the results haven’t been as promising for Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara.
It’s frankly difficult to see this club vaulting into serious contention in 2020 without some enormous strides from existing players and major additions from outside. The organization seems to have preferred a few years of fairly expensive mediocrity and foregone top draft picks as the price for avoiding a full-throated rebuild. There’s some honor in that. But it’s also time to get things moving forward.
There’s an argument to be made that president of baseball operations Jon Daniels ought to press ownership for a big payroll to launch the Rangers forward. The publicly funded stadium bonanza surely supports that concept. But it may not be wise to put the pedal all the way to the floor just yet, even accepting the premise that the organization can and should unleash the full potential of its pocketbook over the next several seasons. The Rangers have a whole host of needs and are separated by a yawning gap from the cross-state, division-rival Astros. Over-committing to too many veterans now, when the Rangers’ would-be core remains ill-defined, carries long-term roster-management risks. This winter demands careful navigation.
Gallo is a walking gap-filler on defense; he could slot in at any outfield spot or in the corner infield, though he hasn’t played third in some time and didn’t grade as well there. That flexibility will be important. The Rangers could move him around a la Cody Bellinger or let Gallo settle into whatever spot most needs it.
Otherwise, questions predominate. You could argue for a whole new outfield outside of Gallo. Shin-Soo probably should be limited all but exclusively to DH duties, where he’s a good-enough but hardly elite bat. Mazara hasn’t broken out of his league-average-ish hitting malaise; the Rangers will have to decide whether they can get him going or are better served letting another team have the shot. Delino DeShields Jr. runs like the wind but just hasn’t hit in the majors; he looks to be a reserve piece at most. And though Willie Calhoun has shown some promise with the bat, he’s anything but settled defensively.
Perhaps the Rangers would be best served shifting Calhoun in to first base rather than lining up Gallo on the dirt. The club may not be ready to give up entirely on Ronald Guzman, but it’d be awfully hard to hand over the first bagging duties to him after a .219/.308/.414 season. Across the way at the hot corner, the team still hasn’t settled on a permanent replacement for Adrian Beltre. Super-sub Danny Santana can help cover there, or just about anywhere else on the diamond, though it’s dubious whether he’ll repeat his high-BABIP, high-strikeout, power-surging 2019 success story. What of Nick Solak? The bat is intriguing, but there are questions surrounding the glove.
Let’s pause here to consider the scale of the challenge — and the volume of possible solutions. The Rangers could justifiably add something like three or four high-quality players to the corner infield/outfield mix, particularly if they find a deal they like for Mazara. Doing quite that much seems like a stretch, but the Rangers have picked up quite a few lower-cost veterans in recent years and surely will do so again. Given their positive experience with Beltre, perhaps a late-career fling with Josh Donaldson would make sense. Texas native Anthony Rendon is a bit of a dream scenario, but it’s quite possible to imagine at least some level of pursuit. There are loads of lower-cost vets that can slot in at either corner infield slot, with Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier among the more prominent names. It isn’t hard to imagine a first bagger such as Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, or old friend Mitch Moreland finding his way to Texas. Likewise, the corner outfield market is full of possibilities that probably won’t break the bank. Even Marcell Ozuna may struggle to get a monster deal given the relative lack of urgent demand around the game. Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, and Corey Dickerson are all reasonably youthful options.
That’s not all the Rangers must consider, however, even on the position-player side of the coin. We touched briefly upon the center field situation. That could be solved by planting Gallo out there every day, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers prefer to ease the burden by also lining him up at first base. DeShields has historically been better against left-handed pitching, so perhaps he could handle center when southpaw starters oppose the Rangers. If Gallo is deployed elsewhere entirely, a center field platoon might include a veteran such as Jon Jay, Jarrod Dyson, or (another) old friend Leonys Martin. Should the club go looking for everyday options, it’ll need to get creative. Pirates star Starling Marte would obviously fit quite nicely, but that’ll take quite a bit of creativity for Daniels, especially with so many other teams likely to have interest in Marte given the meager open-market alternatives. More realistic, perhaps, is Japanese star Shogo Akiyama. He seems to have fixed his gaze on the majors; Daniels has always kept a close watch over the top Asian leagues. Perhaps they’ll make eye contact.
Oh, and it’s not as if the other up-the-middle spots are locked and loaded. Elvis Andrus is not going to opt out and it’d be tough to move enough of Odor’s contract to make it worth dealing him now, so the double-play combo is intact. But that underwhelming unit needs to step up big-time and the club can’t presume that’ll occur. At the same time, it’s hard to see how it can give up on the duo given their contracts. Santana and Solak factor here, though the former hasn’t been trusted much at short and the latter hasn’t played there at all. Having them to work in makes it less likely that the Rangers will spend on a sturdy veteran that can handle some time at second, though a move for a Forsythe type can’t be ruled out — particularly with a laundry list of useful names floating around free agency.
The catching situation is at least as big of an issue, albeit one that may not be susceptible of much near-term change. Mathis had an unfathomably bad season with the bat (.158/.209/.224) and understudy Jose Trevino hardly shined (.258/.272/.383 with just three walks in 126 plate appearances). It’s nice that Isiah Kiner-Falefa can play behind the dish or elsewhere on the diamond, but he also lacks promise with the bat. You can swallow some poor offensive output from defensively exceptional backstops, but it’s rough to have a black hole in the lineup.
What the Rangers can hope is that Mathis and Trevino will squeeze value out of a largely uninspiring pitching staff. Lynn and Minor were stunningly valuable in 2019 — they accounted for 11 of the club’s net 14.2 pitching fWAR — but it seems fair to presume at least a bit of regression for each. A group of youthful southpaws — Kolby Allard, Brock Burke, Joe Palumbo, and (if healthy) Taylor Hearn — will battle for opportunities despite poor results in their earliest MLB showings. There are a few other depth arms and rising prospects, but several of the team’s better-regarded farmhands are still a ways off. It’d be disappointing to see Ariel Jurado and Adrian Sampson occupy more than 120 frames apiece once again (unless the club can find a way to put one or both into another gear, at least). Pending supplementation, it’s tough to see this rotation mix as contention-worthy.
There’s some room for improvement in the bullpen. Jose Leclerc still has an electric arm. The Rangers will continue trying to help him find consistency and an appropriate role after dabbling with him as a closer and opener in 2019. It’ll be interesting to see fireballer Emmanuel Clase in his sophomore effort. Rafael Montero was a way-post-hype revelation and should occupy a prominent role. Jesse Chavez will try to bounce back and provide stability. Some of the aforementioned starter candidates could end up in the pen, while the Rangers may hope to get a worthwhile contribution from Ian Gibaut, Jeffrey Springs, or others.
So, what’s the path to improving the pitching? After hitting on two against-the-grain pitching contracts — going to the third year to land Minor and Lynn — the club could seek another opportunity of that ilk. Michael Pineda might represent an under-the-radar candidate for a relatively longer, lower-AAV outlay. The Rangers could also look at the highest reaches of the market. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg may or may not be legitimate targets, but the Texas org could certainly afford to spend in the next tiers (Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel). And this year’s market has quite a few steady veteran types that ought to be available on cheaper, one-year deals. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers end up with Ivan Nova or Brett Anderson. The team could also roll the dice on Michael Wacha or Alex Wood.
Free agency also obviously offers some relief solutions. A big move for a closer feels unlikely, but there’s a typical smattering of useful veterans kicking around. If the Rangers prefer a hurler with some closing experience, they could look to someone on the order of Steve Cishek. Perhaps a reunion with the under-the-radar excellent Chris Martin — an Arlington native who the Rangers brought back from Japan — would make sense for all sides.
Needless to say, options abound. It’ll also be interesting to see whether the Rangers can gain any traction in trade talks involving pitching. This club isn’t exactly overburdened with top prospects knocking down the door to the majors and won’t be anxious to move its best farm pieces. But the Rangers do have an interesting asset to market in the form of Mazara’s contract rights. He could be of interest to a variety of teams that would like a crack at his upside; packaged with other young talent, Mazara might help deliver a useful arm back to Texas. It’s even possible that Minor or Lynn could still pop up in trade talks if there’s an avenue for the Rangers to improve their mid-term outlook by kicking the contention can down the road a bit further, though the fact that a deal hasn’t yet occurred is a good indication that the Texas org values those contracts quite a bit.
One way or another, we’re likely to see quite a few fresh names on the backs of Rangers jerseys in 2020. Daniels and co. will need to be clever to make strides in the standings while also setting the team up for a much-anticipated return to glory.
Assessing Choo's Impact On Texas' Outfield Crunch
As presently constructed, the 2020 Rangers project to roster four left-handed corner outfield options in Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Willie Calhoun, and Shin-Soo Choo. That Choo underwent a surgical debridement last week is bad news from the perspective of The Athletic’s Levi Weaver, who opines that the soon-to-be-38-year-old Choo would have made for the club’s most obvious trade chip, had he not undergone the knife (link). While Choo projects to be fully healthy for Opening Day, Weaver still describes the outfield/DH option as “damaged goods” which other teams might be disinclined to deal for.
While Weaver’s concern over an aging player undergoing a shoulder procedure is justified, it’s far from certain that Choo’s minor operation would be the straw that broke the camel’s back in a trade negotiation. With one season and $21MM left on his deal and limited defensive value (-16 DRS and -9.0 UZR in 2019), it stands to reason that other clubs would simply prefer the Rangers other, younger, cheaper outfield options–with Mazara standing out as a player that both the Padres and White Sox checked in on this summer.
Shin-Soo Choo Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Rangers designated hitter Shin-Soo Choo revealed in an appearance on a talk show in his native South Korea that he underwent a minor surgery on his left shoulder (hat tip: Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Choo was wearing a sling during the appearance but said the procedure came with a rough recovery timeline of six to eight weeks. That should put him on track for a normal Spring Training, barring any setbacks.
Now 37 years old, Choo has spent the past six seasons with the Rangers after signing a seven-year, $130MM deal as a free agent in the 2013-14 offseason. He’s had three solid years and three forgettable ones thus far into that lengthy pact, with each of his two most recent seasons standing out as a productive efforts. Dating back to Opening Day 2018, Choo has batted a combined .264/.374/.444 with 45 home runs, 61 doubles and three triples. He’s played in 297 games and tallied 1325 plate appearances across those two seasons while serving as the club’s primary designated hitter.
Choo is owed $21MM in 2020 — the final season of his current contract. Texas has explored trading him in the past and could look to trade a left-handed-hitting outfielder this winter, though Choo’s contract, lack of defensive value and this surgery won’t make him easy to move. Choo did log 668 innings in the outfield this year but was rated poorly by Defensive Runs Saved (-16), Ultimate Zone Rating (-9.0) and Outs Above Average (-12). Meanwhile, most American League clubs already have a set DH or multiple players they plan to rotate through that DH slot and other positions, making it even more difficult to see Choo being moved. Nomar Mazara, on the other hand, could be a more plausible candidate to change hands with Texas likely to commit two outfield spots to fellow lefty hitters Willie Calhoun and Joey Gallo.