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Rangers Sign Corey Seager

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The Rangers’ huge offseason continues, as Texas has agreed to terms with free agent shortstop Corey Seager on a ten-year deal, the team announced today. According to various reports, it’s a massive $325MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client. He’ll reportedly receive a $5MM signing bonus and a $32.5MM salary in 2022. Seager will make $35MM in 2023, $34.5MM in 2024 and $32MM in 2025 before settling in at $31MM annually from 2026-31 as part of the front-loaded pact. The deal also contains limited no-trade protection but does not feature any opt-out clauses.

It’s the Rangers’ second big-ticket free agent infield pickup of the offseason, as they also agreed to terms with Marcus Semien on a seven-year, $175MM deal. The Rangers announced Semien’s signing at the same press conference. Huge as the Rangers’ investment in Semien is, the Seager deal is on a whole other level. The $325MM guarantee will tie Giancarlo Stanton’s November 2014 extension for the sixth-highest sum in MLB history (and Stanton’s was distributed over a thirteen-year term). The $32.5MM average annual value checks in eleventh all-time.

It’s an incredible investment, although that’s a testament to Seager’s blend of productivity and youth. He’ll turn 28 years old next April, making him one of the younger options available in free agency. More importantly, Seager’s one of the game’s best players — a middle-of-the-order lineup presence capable of playing shortstop. A former first-round pick and top prospect, he’s more than lived up to lofty expectations.

Seager has been an above-average bat in every season of his career, and he’s been far better than most at the plate for the bulk of that time. By measure of wRC+, he’s been at least 27 percentage points above the league average in four of his five seasons with 200+ plate appearances. Seager has been especially productive over the past two years, combining for a .306/.381/.545 line over 641 regular season trips to the plate since the start of 2020. That’s the eighth-best offensive production leaguewide (minimum 500 plate appearances) and that’s before considering Seager’s huge showing in the 2020 postseason. He was perhaps the single greatest driver of the Dodgers’ World Series run that year, winning NLCS and World Series MVP honors after popping seven homers over 57 combined plate appearances between the two rounds.

Those great bottom line results are supported by Seager’s underlying metrics. He has never struck out at a higher-than-average rate in a season, and he rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. Seager’s 11.7% walk rate in 2021 was the highest of his career, around three percentage points better than the league mark. The left-handed hitter pairs that plate discipline with high-end raw power, consistently rating well above-average in terms of average exit velocity, hard contact rate and barrel rate (essentially how often a hitter makes hard contact at the optimal angles for power).

Any player with Seager’s offensive acumen would be in high demand, but that kind of production is particularly impressive from a shortstop. Aside from a brief stint at third base in his 2015 rookie season, Seager has exclusively played the infield’s most demanding position. Advanced defensive metrics have been mixed on his work. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him just a touch below-average in each of the past few seasons; Statcast’s Outs Above Average rated Seager fairly well in 2019 and 2020 but pegged him as a fair bit below par in 2021.

Those metrics seem to align with the general understanding of Seager’s defense. He’s a competent if unexceptional shortstop, unlikely to either win a Gold Glove nor immediately have to move off the position. His 6’4″, 215-pound frame has led to some speculation he might kick over to third base at some point down the line, but it’s likely the Rangers envision him as a franchise shortstop for at least the next few seasons. Even if Seager eventually has to assume a less demanding defensive role, he should be more than capable of living up to the higher offensive demands of positions further down the defensive spectrum.

While there’s not much to nitpick about Seager as a player, he has dealt with a couple of significant injuries over the past few seasons. He missed the bulk of the 2018 campaign recovering from a UCL sprain that required Tommy John surgery. This past season, he suffered a right hand fracture on a hit-by-pitch that cost him two months. Seager absolutely mashed at a .335/.417/.592 clip upon returning from that most recent issue, though, likely assuaging any fears on the part of teams about his current level of health.

Seager now becomes the centerpiece of an incredible offseason for the Rangers and their fanbase. Texas brass has hinted at the potential for an active winter for months, but it wasn’t until a few weeks ago it became clear ownership might sign off on an historic spending spree. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported earlier this month that the Rangers could add $100MM to their 2022 books alone, and between the recent deals for Seager, Semien, starter Jon Gray (four years, $56MM) and corner outfielder Kole Calhoun (one year, $5.2MM), they’ve added around $76.7MM to next year’s payroll within the past 36 hours alone.

That’s in part due to the wide open payroll outlook the Rangers carried into the winter. José Leclerc ($5.25MM) is the only other player with guaranteed money on the books for 2022; Seager, Semien and Gray are the club’s only long-term commitments. Active as they’ve been, it’s certainly possible the Rangers aren’t done yet. Texas currently has around $125MM in 2022 player expenditures, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. (That assumes the Seager, Semien and Gray deals are paid out relatively evenly; specific contract terms on each have yet to be reported). For a franchise that spent around $160-165MM on players in both 2016 and 2017, there could still be more funds in reserve.

Regardless of what’s to come, the past two days have marked an incredible turnaround for a franchise coming off three last-place finishes in the past four years. That’s not to say the Rangers are certain to contend in 2022. The roster still has plenty of holes, particularly in the starting rotation. Still, installing Seager and Semien into the middle infield and Gray near the top of the rotation locks in some certainty at key areas of the roster.

At the very least, the 2022 Rangers should be far better than the 60-102 team they trotted out in 2021. And Semien, Seager and Gray will all be key pieces of a club that could legitimately contend in 2023 — particularly if top third base prospect Josh Jung hits the ground running as an above-average player alongside their star middle infield.

Until Jung’s arrival, Isiah Kiner-Falefa looks likely to kick back over to third base. The 26-year-old broke in as a third baseman but acclimated well upon a move up the defensive spectrum to shortstop this past season. While the Rangers likely didn’t see displacing Kiner-Falefa as a must, the opportunity to add two members of this offseason’s stacked shortstop class ultimately proved too tempting to pass up. Semien, meanwhile, looks likely to stay at second base, where he spent the 2021 season with the Blue Jays after a lengthy run as the A’s shortstop.

The Rangers already forfeited their second-highest 2022 draft choice and gave up $500K in international bonus pool space to sign Semien, who rejected a qualifying offer from Toronto. They’ll lose another pick to sign Seager, who declined a QO from the Dodgers. Signing multiple qualified free agents in the same offseason actually makes some amount of sense, though.

Under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement, teams that sign multiple qualified free agents pay a diminishing penalty. A team that already forfeited its second-highest pick on one qualified player (like the Rangers) lose their third-highest pick to sign another qualified free agent. That’s less costly than the second-highest pick other clubs in the Rangers’ revenue bucket would have had to forfeit to land Seager, a small benefit for teams concentrating their big free agent investments in the same offseason.

The primary appeal, though, is in simply adding a pair of star players to the 2022 roster. That’s the position in which the Rangers find themselves, while Seager’s former team finds itself in the opposite situation. The Dodgers have seen both Seager and Max Scherzer (who landed a record-setting three-year deal with the Mets) land elsewhere within the past few days. Los Angeles’ acquisition of Trea Turner from the Nationals at this past summer’s trade deadline gives them another All-Star caliber shortstop capable of stepping into Seager’s place.

Of course, the Dodgers aren’t likely to sit idly by for the rest of the offseason. Particularly as they battle with the Giants (and potentially Padres) in a loaded NL West, it’s likely Los Angeles will continue to explore ways to bolster a still-stacked roster. In the meantime, they’ll receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the 2022 draft for Seager’s departure as a team that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021.

Seager’s signing is the latest in a transactions flurry getting in before the looming expiration of the current CBA on Wednesday night. Seager’s and Scherzer’s departures from L.A. could have a massive impact on the NL West race, while the Rangers’ run of big-ticket acquisitions and the Mariners’ agreement on a nine-figure deal with Robbie Ray will have reverberations in the AL West for years to come.

Finally, Seager’s deal becomes a key data point for the rest of the free agent shortstops remaining, particularly Carlos Correa. While Seager and Correa were the clear top two names in this winter’s class, Correa is generally expected to command a loftier deal based on his superior defense at shortstop. Seager’s guarantee, however, comes in above MLBTR’s ten-year, $305MM estimate entering the winter. In light of the robust market we’ve seen in recent weeks, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Correa also tops his ten-year, $320MM projection whenever he puts pen to paper. That’s particularly true in light of the Rangers signing two of the top five shortstops. The Yankees, Phillies, Mariners and Astros are among the other clubs who could still be motivated to land a long-term infielder.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Rangers and Seager were in agreement on a ten-year, $325MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported the limited no-trade protection and the $5MM signing bonus, as well as the absence of any form of opt-out clause. Levi Weaver of the Athletic was first with the specific contract breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Have Had Recent Trade Talks Regarding Castillo, Gray, Mahle

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TODAY: The Rangers are one of the teams who have spoken to the Reds about their starters, according to Jon Morosi (via Twitter).

NOVEMBER 29: The Reds have had talks with multiple teams about starting pitchers Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, and Luis Castillo, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Cincinnati has reportedly been open to dealing starting pitchers for weeks now, but Morosi suggests there have been recent discussions on all three from that trio.

Either Mahle (who has two years of control remaining after a breakout 2021) or Gray (who’s under contract for $10.2MM in 2022, with a $12MM club option for 2023) would figure to cost significantly less in prospect capital than would Castillo, whom Cincinnati is said to be loath to deal. Like Mahle, Castillo has two years of club control remaining. However, he also has a longer track record of consistent high-end production than Mahle, and he’s three years younger and less expensive than Gray, who is playing out the final two years of a contract extennsion.

An earlier report by Morosi had linked the Angels to Castillo, though he described those talks as “preliminary.” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, however, that the Angels are at the “forefront” of the Castillo push, even as the Reds have told opposing GMs they prefer to hang onto their top starter.

Just how high a price Reds GM Nick Krall is asking for Castillo remains to be seen, but any team that’s come calling will have expected it to be high. In what was actually one of his lesser statistical seasons, Castillo posted a 3.98 ERA (3.75 FIP) across 187 2/3 innings against a career ERA of 3.72 (3.76 FIP) in parts of five major league seasons — all of which were spent playing his home games in the hitter-friendly confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He’s also been remarkably durable, taking the ball at least 31 times in each of his full seasons (and 12 times in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season).

Castillo also closed out the year in particularly impressive fashion, recovering from an ugly April/May showing to post a 2.73 ERA and 3.34 FIP over his final 135 1/3 frames. Combine that with an eminently reasonable $7.6MM projected salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and an additional year of club control, through the 2023 season, and it’s easy to see why the ask on Castillo would be sky-high.

The 32-year-old Gray, meanwhile, is plenty affordable in his own right. He hasn’t replicated the 2015 form that saw him finish third in AL Cy Young voting and may never reach that level again, but the right-hander has strongly bounced back from a poor showing with the Yankees that prompted his trade to Cincinnati.

In three years with the Reds, Gray carries a 3.49 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate that trounces the 20.9% mark he posted in his pre-Reds career. Last season’s 4.19 ERA was more solid than stellar, clearly, but Gray was also among the best in the game in terms of limiting hard contact. Most fielding-independent metrics feel he was quite a bit better than that baseline ERA indicates.

Mahle doesn’t carry the name value that his teammates do — but he’s developed into a quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons. Through his past 227 2/3 frames at the MLB level, Mahle owns a 3.72 ERA with an impressive 28.1% strikeout rate against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. Walks and home runs have both been issues at times in his career, but he posted solid marks in both categories over the past two seasons — and one would imagine that a move away from Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park could also have a beneficial impact on his home-run rate.

Swartz projects a $5.6MM salary for Mahle, so any team acquiring him would have to figure it’s picking up two years of Mahle for under a total of $15MM in salary. There’s quite a bit of surplus value there, making Mahle a more enticing trade option than most would expect. Mahle turned 27 at the end of September, so he’ll pitch nearly all of the 2022 season at that age. Teams will likely view him as a pitcher whose stock is on the rise, and some may even have designs on extending him after a trade, given his age and recent strides.

Braves, Rangers Interested In Matt Olson

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As the Athletics prepare to reduce their payroll, first baseman Matt Olson stands out as an obvious and popular trade chip, even if Oakland naturally is asking for quite a bit in return for the All-Star.  The Braves are among the teams who have “checked in” with the A’s about Olson, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports, while Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News writes that the Rangers “have already begun investigating what it would take to get Olson.”

Atlanta’s interest in Olson is obviously viewed through the lens of the Freddie Freeman market, as there seems to be some level of increased chatter that Freeman might depart the Braves after 12 seasons, as the two sides have yet to agree on the length and dollar value of a new contract.  As Heyman notes, there is a general feeling that Freeman will ultimately wind up re-signing, but if not, Olson could be the Braves’ “contingency plan” if they have a sudden vacancy to fill at first base.

For the Rangers, adding Olson would be only the latest move for a club that has been one of the biggest stories of the free agent season.  Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Jon Gray, and Kole Calhoun have already been signed on the open market, though prying Olson away from the A’s would now carry a different cost for Texas in terms of younger talent.  While the A’s and Rangers have lined up on some very notable trades in recent years, it is possible Oakland might command a particular premium from Texas (or any other AL West suitor) to move Olson within the division.

One of baseball’s top all-around first basemen, Olson has won two Gold Gloves to go along with his big power numbers, and he is only entering his age-28 season.  Olson is also controlled via arbitration over the next two seasons, and while his $12MM projection for 2022 isn’t exactly light, it is still more than reasonable for a player of his caliber.

For the Braves, this salary would surely be a smoother fit in the long-term payroll plans than giving Freeman something in the realm of $160MM+ throughout his 30’s.  President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has said that the club’s payroll will rise in the wake of their World Series triumph, though a mega-deal for Freeman could itself take up all of that increase.  Anthopoulos has scored big on the free agent market during his time in Atlanta, though mostly on short-term contracts — if Freeman leaves and the asking price for Olson isn’t palatable, it is easy to see the Braves pivoting to a shorter-term first base option that wouldn’t cost a ton in either free agent dollars or prospect capital.

It’s safe to say that payroll isn’t quite as big a concern with the Rangers, given what they’re already invested in roster upgrades.  By that token, the Rangers might prefer to continue spending to address any needs rather than deal from their prospect base, though Grant observes that such middle-infield prospects as Justin Foscue, Davis Wendzel, Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith could now be trade candidates in the wake of the Seager/Semien additions.  Texas also has a good first base option already on hand in Nathaniel Lowe, yet Lowe (who is controlled through 2026) would also seem like the kind of trade chip that the Athletics would seek out as an Olson replacement at first base.

Rangers Sign Jon Gray

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The Rangers continue their offseason spending spree, announcing agreement Wednesday on a four-year contract with right-hander Jon Gray. It’s reportedly a $56MM guarantee for the CAA Sports client. Gray will make $15MM apiece over the next two seasons, followed by successive $13MM salaries in 2024-25 on the front-loaded deal.

After signing Marcus Semien to a huge seven-year, $175MM deal and then adding Kole Calhoun to the outfield on another free agent deal, Texas has now addressed its pitching staff with another veteran addition.  The Rangers emerged as a suitor for Gray a few days ago, and they beat out the division rival Angels, as well as the Tigers and Mets as teams known to have interest in signing the 30-year-old.

Jon Gray verticalThe four-year, $56MM pact exactly matches MLBTR’s projection for Gray, who ranked 19th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.  The Rangers’ offer was also north of the three-year extension offer the Rockies reportedly made Gray prior to the end of the season, which was said to be somewhere around $35-$40MM in value.  While Gray only got a bit more extra in average annual value, he’ll also gain an extra year of security, and also now get to pitch in a more hurler-friendly venue than Coors Field.

The third overall pick of the 2013 draft, Gray has spent his entire MLB career with Coors Field as his home ballpark, and for the most part has acquitted himself a lot better than most at the notoriously hitter-friendly stadium.  Gray has a career 4.54 ERA in home games, with that number inflated by some rough outings over the smaller sample size of 45 1/3 innings over the 2015 and 2020 seasons.  While Gray also has a 4.65 ERA over 412 2/3 career innings in road games, several players (both pitchers and hitters) have talked about how playing in Denver’s thin air impacts adjustments throughout an entire season, so it could be that getting out of Coors Field entirely will allow Gray to unlock a new level of performance.

Several rival teams have long speculated that Gray’s stuff would thrive in a more normalized pitching environment, given what he already showed as a Rockie.  Gray has a career 46.7% grounder rate, 23.9% strikeout rate, and 7.9% walk rate over his career, all above-average metrics.  The righty’s fastball that has averaged 95.2 mph over his career, and that high-velo heater is augmented by an above-average spin rate on his curveball.

Focusing on Gray’s positives while attributing his negatives only to Coors Field isn’t wise, however, as there are some concerns about whether or not Gray can be a true front-of-the-rotation pitcher.  He has given up quite a bit of hard contact over his career and his fastball (while quick) is lacking in spin rate.  Injuries have also been a factor — Gray tossed only 39 innings in 2020 due to shoulder inflammation, and he missed time this year with a flexor strain and forearm tightness, though those two IL stints only totaled roughly a month.

The Rangers are making a $56MM bet that Gray’s best is yet to come, and it’s a risk the team can afford to take given how much money Texas is reportedly willing to spend on payroll this winter.  Between Gray, Semien, and Calhoun, the Rangers have added $44.2MM in average annual value to next year’s payroll alone, which might represent less than half of the team’s work if they really are prepared to top last year’s mark by $100MM.

Gray immediately becomes the most experienced arm of a Rangers rotation that features Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Spencer Howard, Glenn Otto, and A.J. Alexy all in the mix for starting jobs.  Dunning and Hearn seem like the only members of that group who are assured of rotation spots, and while Texas won’t sideline all of its younger arms with veteran, there is certainly still room for another notable addition or two beyond Gray.

Beyond the money, Gray doesn’t cost the Rangers anything further in terms of compensation, as the Rockies didn’t issue Gray a qualifying offer.  While there was some expectation that Gray might have taken the one-year, $18.4MM contract if Colorado had made it, the amount of interest in Gray’s services makes that scenario seem a little unlikely in hindsight.  If Gray had accepted, the Rockies would have still retained a pitcher they had obvious interest in keeping, even if at a higher price point than they would have preferred.  Without the QO involved, however, the Rockies now don’t receive any draft pick compensation for Gray’s departure.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was first to report the Rangers and Gray were closing in on an agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that an agreement had been reached. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the four-year, $56MM guarantee. Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reported the breakdown of terms.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

American League Non-Tenders: 11/30/21

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The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players has come and gone. The Tigers’ decision to non-tender Matthew Boyd — more on that here — represents the most prominent name cast into free agency tonight, but here’s a quick rundown of the rest of the non-tenders in the American League.

Note that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco also has a rundown of this year’s National League non-tenders, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz published his annual projected arbitration salaries earlier this offseason.

Onto the transactions…

  • Outfielder Tim Locastro was non-tendered by the Red Sox, the team announced. The speedy HBP-magnet was claimed off waivers from the Yankees earlier this month after an injury-marred season. He is likely to be an in-demand depth option for teams if his ACL tear recovery goes well.
  • The Rangers announced that outfielder Billy McKinney and catchers David Garcia and Yohel Pozo were non-tendered. Texas also assigned outfielder DJ Peters outright to Triple-A Salt Lake after he went unclaimed on waivers.
  • The Royals non-tendered lefty Richard Lovelady, per a club announcement. Lovelady underwent Tommy John surgery late in the 2021 season and is expected to be sidelined for the entirety of the 2022 season.
  • The Twins non-tendered right-hander Juan Minaya, left-hander Danny Coulombe and right-hander Trevor Megill, per a team announcement. Megill’s non-tender is particularly curious, as he was only just claimed off waivers a few hours ago and was not arbitration-eligible. Presumably, the team will try to quickly re-sign him to a minor league pact and bring him to Spring Training as a depth piece.
  • Infielder Phil Gosselin has been non-tendered by the Angels, per an announcement from the team. The journeyman saw a career-high 373 plate appearances in 2021, but is unlikely to challenge that number next year owing to below average offensive and defensive metrics.

Rangers Sign Kole Calhoun

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The Rangers announced an agreement with veteran outfielder Kole Calhoun on Tuesday. It’s reportedly a one-year, $5.2MM guarantee that comes with a $5.5MM club option for 2023. The option doesn’t contain a buyout. Calhoun is represented by PSI Sports Management.

Calhoun hit the open market after the Diamondbacks declined their $9MM club option following the season, instead paying him a $2MM buyout.  Calhoun originally signed a two-year, $16MM deal with Arizona in the 2019-20 offseason and hit a strong .226/.338/.526 with 16 home runs over 228 plate appearances in 2020 before battling injuries this past year.  Calhoun underwent surgeries on both his right knee and left hamstring, with that hamstring leading to another injured list stint late in the 2021 season.  All told, Calhoun had only 182 PA in 2021, and he batted just .235/.297/.373.

The 34-year-old will now get a chance to bounce back in Arlington, returning to the AL West after playing with the Angels from 2012-19.  Calhoun has long been a very solid defensive right fielder, and since breakout star Adolis Garcia acquitted himself pretty well defensively in part-time action in center field last year, Texas might opt to give Garcia more time in center with Calhoun taking over the bulk of right field duty.

Considering how Calhoun struggled in 2021, however, the Rangers might well see Calhoun as more of a part-time or platoon option rather than an everyday regular in the outfield.  Since Texas clearly has some major spending in mind this winter (as evidenced by today’s agreement with Marcus Semien), we also shouldn’t rule out more additions to the outfield mix.  For now, at least, Calhoun will join Garcia as a starter in the 2022 outfield.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report the Rangers were in agreement with Calhoun. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported it was a one-year, $5.2MM guarantee and contained a 2023 club option. Levi Weaver of the Athletic reported the option was valued at $5.5MM and didn’t contain a buyout figure.

Rangers Making Push For Corey Seager

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The Rangers have already agreed to terms with one of the five big free-agent shortstops, hammering out a seven-year, $175MM deal with Marcus Semien. They’re reportedly still in the market for another infield upgrade, however, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that they’re making a “big push” to sign Corey Seager.

Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last night (Twitter links) that the Rangers were in play for Seager even after agreeing to the Semien deal, with Sherman adding that Seager is hopeful he’ll choose a new club today. And Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote earlier today that the Rangers remained “very much” in the hunt for Seager as of this morning.

SNY’s Andy Martino reported this morning that both the Rangers and Dodgers were more much more involved in the Seager market than the Yankees, who aren’t believed to have been as aggressive on the 27-year-old. That meshes both with the idea of Texas still being a serious player for Seager and with recent reports suggesting that the Yanks might not sign any of the big-name free agent this winter.

It’s far from clear that Seager’s market is a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Rangers at this point. That said, both parties can certainly afford to sign Seager long-term, and the Dodgers did just tap out during the bidding for ace Max Scherzer, who’s headed to the Mets on a record-setting three-year contract. Seager, like Scherzer (and Semien), is represented by the Boras Corporation, so it’s perhaps possible now that with Scherzer and Semien resolved, the focus will turn to finding a landing spot for Seager.

Seager rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Dodgers at season’s end and is widely expected to cash in on a contract that spans upwards of a decade in length. The former first-round pick and NL Rookie of the Year has posted a combined .306/.381/.545 batting line with 31 homers through his past 147 games/641 plate appearances.

While the Rangers already have Semien in tow and have another capable defensive shortstop in Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the defensive flexibility both Semien and Kiner-Falefa bring to the table allows Texas to be rather nimble in its offseason pursuits. Seager could conceivably play either shortstop or third base, while both Kiner-Falefa and Semien can handle any of third, short or second base. Signing Seager would headline what’s been a highly aggressive offseason thus far for a Rangers club that has not only signed Semien but also agreed to deals with righty Jon Gray (four years, $56MM) and outfielder Kole Calhoun (one year, $5.2MM).

Twins, Tigers, Giants Interested In Robbie Ray

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As free agent pitchers continue to fly off the board, AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray remains unsigned, though he is still drawing plenty of attention.  The Angels, Red Sox, and Blue Jays have been previously linked to Ray on the rumor mill, and The New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link) also lists the Twins, Tigers, and Giants as among the clubs with interest in the left-hander.  In addition, Sherman says to “keep an eye” on the Rangers, which isn’t surprising given how much Texas has already splurged on free agent talent, including another top pitcher in Jon Gray.

Of the new teams in the hunt for Ray, it isn’t surprising to see Detroit and San Francisco listed, as both clubs have already been looking for pitching and been aggressive with some early signings.  The Tigers agreed to sign Eduardo Rodriguez for five years and $77MM, while the Giants re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and were reportedly close to also retaining another familiar face in Alex Wood.

While Ray would obviously be a huge help to either team, the argument can be made that San Francisco has the bigger need.  Just about all of the Giants’ 2021 rotation was eligible for free agency, and leaving plenty of holes to be filled around Logan Webb.  DeSclafani’s return filled one gap and Wood would fill another if he also re-signed, though Kevin Gausman left the Giants to instead sign a five-year, $110MM deal with the Blue Jays.  If there is a silver lining to Gausman’s departure, it could be that Toronto would seemingly be less likely to re-sign Ray, removing some competition from the Giants’ pursuit.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have a somewhat fuller rotation in E-Rod, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal all lined up for starting jobs, though the latter trio are is long on promise but still short on experience at the Major League level.  Adding a proven veteran star like Ray makes that rotation much stronger, and also provides a full-circle moment since Ray formerly pitched for the Tigers during his 2014 rookie season.  Detroit acquired Ray from the Nationals for Doug Fister in December 2013, and then flipped him to the Diamondbacks a year later as part of a three-team swap with the Yankees.

Perhaps the bigger obstacle for a Motor City reunion might be the draft pick compensation attached to Ray for rejecting the Jays’ qualifying offer, as Detroit already gave up a pick to sign Rodriguez (who also rejected a QO from the Red Sox).  As a club who received revenue sharing in 2021, the Tigers’ penalty for Rodriguez was the loss of their third-highest selection, which will be either their second-round pick or their Competitive Balance Round pick, depending on which of the two CBRs the Tigers are drawn into this winter.

If the Tigers signed another QO-rejecting free agent like Ray, the Tigers would lose their fourth-highest selection in the 2022 draft.  Since Detroit still seems to be considering Ray, it would appear that losing two draft picks isn’t out of the question for the club.  The presence of the extra CBR selection does help ease the pain, and the Tigers have obviously built up a sturdy amount of young talent through their years of rebuilding.

Likewise, the Giants would also have to give up a draft pick for Ray.  Since San Francisco isn’t a revenue-sharing team and they didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021, the Giants would lose their second-highest pick and $500K from their international draft pool if they signed Ray or any other QO free agents.  San Francisco issued a qualifying offer to one of its own free agents this winter, though Brandon Belt ended up accepting the one-year deal to return to the team.

Minnesota is perhaps the most interesting of the new teams in the mix.  Like the Tigers, the Twins are a revenue-sharing recipient and also the holder of a Competitive Balance Round pick, which could mitigate the draft capital they’d lose to sign Ray.  The Twins also have a strong need for front-of-the-rotation pitching, since Jose Berrios was dealt last summer, Michael Pineda is a free agent, and Kenta Maeda will very likely miss the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Despite these factors, signing Ray to something close to five years and $130MM (MLBTR’s projection for the lefty’s next deal) would represent the second-largest contract in the Twins’ franchise history, and the type of financial outlay that Minnesota has traditionally preferred to avoid.  However, the Twins have been open to larger spending in other free agent pursuits in recent years, and swung such a notable deal with Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM pact in the 2019-20 offseason.  Additionally, Minnesota just hit the nine-figure threshold by inking Byron Buxton to a seven-year extension that will be worth at least $100MM and perhaps significantly more if Buxton hits various incentive clauses.

Spending roughly $26MM on Ray in average annual value would boost the Twins’ 2022 payroll to around the $119MM mark, but considering the club finished the 2018 campaign spending around $131MM in player salaries, Minnesota would still have room to make other additions.  Plus, Miguel Sano, Taylor Rogers, and Tyler Duffey aren’t guaranteed beyond 2022, and Buxton and Randy Dobnak are the only Twins players on the books beyond the 2023 season.

Report: “Belief” That Corey Seager Will Sign Monday

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Free agent shortstop Corey Seager could be nearing his next contract, as The New York Post’s Joel Sherman reports that there is a “belief” that Seager will sign on Monday.  Seager was known to be leaning towards finding a new team before the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1, and interestingly, that same report indicated the same about another prominent Scott Boras client in Marcus Semien.

Just earlier today, Semien indeed did sign, inking a seven-year, $175MM agreement with the Rangers.  Seager had also engaged in some talks with the Rangers, and both Sherman and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal feel there is a distinct chance Seager may still land in Texas.  Presumably, Seager and Semien would work as the Rangers’ new middle infield combination, though it would remain to be seen exactly where either of the duo would line up.

Seager has spent virtually all of his career at shortstop but his defensive numbers aren’t great, and there is a perception that Seager might be within a few years of moving to third base or perhaps even second base.  Semien, meanwhile, is the better defensive shortstop of the two, though Semien spent 2021 playing as a second baseman with the Blue Jays while Bo Bichette manned the shortstop position.  Texas also has some incumbents to consider, as top third base prospect Josh Jung is ready for his MLB debut, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa is an excellent defender at either shortstop or third base.

The fact that the Rangers can now even weigh all of these possibilities is indicative of the new doors opened by the team’s willingness to spend big this winter, as the Rangers are making a sharp turn towards contention after five straight losing seasons.  Texas has already signed Semien, Jon Gray, and Kole Calhoun within the last 12 hours, so adding Seager would be just the latest addition to what has already been a frenzy of activity for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels.

Trevor Story is another one of the major free agent shortstops who had been linked to the Rangers, and Rosenthal seems to frame Story as something of a backup plan, noting that Story is “also possible if Rangers cannot get Seager.”  The fact that Boras represents both Semien and Seager could make coordinating such a double-signing easier, though it isn’t as if Daniels and company have never had dealings with Story’s reps at Excel (Kolby Allard is an Excel client on the Texas roster, for instance).

While Boras has a reputation for waiting until deep into the offseason to find acceptable contracts for his free agent clients, Sherman notes that at the GM Meetings in early November, teams felt Boras would have deals lined up for Seager, Semien, and Max Scherzer before December 1 and what is expected to be a management lockout following the CBA’s expiration.  Beyond Semien’s deal, Scherzer also seems to be nearing an agreement with the Mets, which perhaps increases the chances that Seager will also get his contract done in short order.

Beyond the Rangers, the Tigers, Dodgers, and Yankees are other teams who have been linked to Seager’s market, though New York is reportedly planning to wait until after the lockout and subsequent transactions freeze to pursue a shortstop, as the club would prefer a shorter-term commitment.  If Scherzer does sign with the Mets, it could spur the Dodgers to make a bigger push for Seager so as to not lose both of their biggest in-house free agents.  Semien’s departure from the market could also spur any of the teams also looking for shortstop or general infield help (such as the Phillies, Blue Jays, or Angels) to look closer at Seager.

Rangers Interested In Jon Gray

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TODAY: Gray looks like the Rangers’ “primary pitching target at [the] moment,” Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News writes, noting that Texas currently has an offer out to the righty.  The Angels and Mets both appear to still be in the mix.

NOVEMBER 25: Several teams are showing “legitimate interest” in free agent right-hander Jon Gray, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link), with the Rangers included in that list.  Gray’s decision may come relatively soon, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that there is some industry expectation that Gray will sign within the next week, or prior to the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1.

Texas has mostly been linked to major position player free agents this offseason, but with the organization reportedly ready for a huge payroll increase, rotation help is naturally also on the radar.  Justin Verlander (before he re-signed with the Astros) and Clayton Kershaw have already been linked to the Rangers, though Gray would likely require a longer-term contract.  Feinsand notes that geography could also be a factor for Gray, as playing for the Rangers would put him closer to his home in Oklahoma.

Gray would immediately become the veteran ace of a young Texas staff, and quite possibly wouldn’t be the only new arm in the mix.  Since the Rockies didn’t issue Gray a qualifying offer, he can be signed without any draft pick compensation, making him a particularly intriguing option for a Texas club that is looking at several big-name additions.  Signing Gray would allow the Rangers to instead surrender their draft capital on one of the 10 QO-rejecting free agents still on the market, though obviously Gray holds that same appeal for any number of other teams.

Gray celebrated his 30th birthday earlier this month, and after seven MLB seasons with Colorado, could now be set to pitch elsewhere for the first time in his professional career.  It remains to be seen if a return to the Rockies is still a possibility, as while the club made a push to sign Gray to a contract extension before the offseason began, Rockies GM Bill Schmidt said on November 10 that Gray’s camp hadn’t been in contact with the front office since the end of the season.

If Gray did sign within a week’s time, he would become the latest player to depart what has become a fast-moving starting pitching market.  Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani, and Andrew Heaney are some of the prominent free agent hurlers who have already signed new contracts, and Alex Wood is reportedly close to a new deal to return to the Giants.  This should only help Gray’s leverage in finding a healthy multi-year pact beyond the Rockies’ reported extension offer of three years and between $35-40MM.  The Tigers are the only other known suitor for Gray to date.

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