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Rangers Sign Marcus Semien

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The Rangers made the first major strike of the offseason shortstop market, agreeing with Marcus Semien on a seven-year, $175MM contract.  According to The Athletic’s Levi Weaver, Semien will earn $25MM in 2022, $26MM in each of the 2023-27 seasons, and then $20MM in 2028.  Semien is represented by the Boras Corporation.

“Marcus’ reputation around the game is impeccable.  He’s a leader in every clubhouse he steps into, respected for the way he goes about his work and how he treats others,” Rangers President of Baseball Operations Jon Daniels said in a press release officially announcing the signing.  “There are few players in the game who garner the level of respect that he does from teammates and opponents alike.  We’re thrilled to add a player of his caliber to the organization.”

There were indications that Semien was one of the free agents looking to get his next contract finalized prior to the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1, as a lockout and transactions freeze are widely expected to follow.  The Rangers were also known to be one of the more aggressive teams of the offseason, with money to spent and a direct interest in the shortstop market.

Marcus Semien verticalWith these factors in mind, a deal between the two sides doesn’t necessarily count as a surprise, but the sheer size of the contract is a little eye-opening.  MLBTR projected Semien for six years and $138MM, as though Semien is already 31 years old, he has been a very durable player throughout his career and isn’t necessarily as much of a decline risk as other players his age.  Needless to say, the Rangers agreed, giving Semien the biggest contract of any free agent to date this winter.  With Semien now locking in $175MM, the asking price will probably only go up for Carlos Correa (age 27), Corey Seager (28 in April), Trevor Story (who just turned 29) and Javier Baez (who turns 29 on December 1).

It also isn’t out of the question that one of these other shortstops might still end up joining forces with Semien in the Texas infield, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reporting that Story is still under consideration.  Theoretically, a scenario exists where Story signs to play shortstop, while Semien moves to second base, as he did last year with the Blue Jays alongside shortstop Bo Bichette.

If another shortstop isn’t added, Semien might conceivably still remain at second base, since Rangers incumbent Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a fine defensive shortstop in his own right.  Kiner-Falefa would likely be a defensive standout anywhere he plays around the infield, however, so Texas could opt to put IKF at second or third base, and install Semien back in his former shortstop position.

The seven-year contract represents quite a turn of events for Semien, who struggled through the first six weeks of the shortened 2020 season, thus limiting his value heading into free agency last winter.  Semien opted to sign a one-year deal with the Jays in order to re-establish his market, and the result was a third-place finish in AL MVP voting.  Semien hit .265/.334/.538 with 45 homers during his spectacular year, appearing in all 162 games and leading the league with 724 plate appearances.  In addition to Silver Slugger honors, Semien also won a Gold Glove in his first year as a second baseman since 2014.

The Rangers were very familiar with Semien from his days with the Athletics, and the infielder now returns to the AL West as the veteran face of a new era of Texas baseball.  After five straight losing seasons, both president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and GM Chris Young indicated that the club was willing to spend some serious money to return to contention.  The Rangers have so little on the books in future salary commitments that multiple signings seemed likely, and if the team is indeed prepared to add up to $100MM in payroll this winter alone, Semien’s $25MM average annual value represents only the first quarter of Texas’ potential outlay.

As Rome wasn’t built in a day, turning the 102-loss Rangers into an immediate contender will be a tall order, even if Texas does spend $100MM+.  Both the AL West and the American League as a whole figure to be competitive in 2022, so the Rangers will need quite a bit more than just Semien to even get back above the .500 mark.  The seven-year commitment, however, is a sign that the Rangers are clearly in this for the long haul, and Semien is the type of “signpost” free agent signing (i.e. Jayson Werth signing with the Nationals in December 2010, or Hyun Jin Ryu signing with the Blue Jays two offseasons ago) that announces a team is ready to turn the corner.  Semien’s reputation as a strong clubhouse leader will also help for mentorship purposes with the Rangers’ younger players, and potentially attract other players to Arlington.

Because Semien rejected Toronto’s qualifying offer, the Rangers will have to give up $500K in international spending pool money, as well as their second-highest pick in the 2022 draft.  The latter is a pretty significant concession, as the Rangers’ second-highest selection is the third pick of the second round.  Since signing another QO-rejecting free agent would cost Texas its next highest pick (the third choice of the third round), it remains to be seen if the Rangers will now target free agents who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation.  Of the other shortstops, Baez is the only one who didn’t turn down a qualifying offer, as Baez wasn’t eligible due to his midseason trade to the Mets.

As well, the Blue Jays will get draft pick compensation for Semien’s departure, as the Jays will now get an extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round.  The Blue Jays had interest in re-signing Semien themselves, but will now take the draft pick as a reward for their bet on Semien one year ago.

With Bichette established at shortstop, it remains to be seen if any of Correa, Seager, Story, or Baez could factor into Toronto’s plans, though most of the Jays-related news this winter has been related to their search for pitching, rather than any shortstops apart from Semien.  With a Santiago Espinal/Cavan Biggio platoon penciled in for second base or third base, the Jays have some flexibility in what type of infielder they can pursue as a Semien replacement, or whether that new player comes via free agency or trade.  There is no easy way to truly replace Semien’s production, of course, so a substantial addition be required to try and fill the big hole that Semien leaves in Toronto’s lineup.

FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter link) was the first to report that the two sides were close to a deal, with MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reporting the contract length, the fact that the deal had been reached, and the dollar figure.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also adds that the deal doesn’t contain any opt-out clauses or no-trade protection. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Woodward: Rangers In Contact With Clayton Kershaw

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The Rangers have been in contact with free agent starter Clayton Kershaw, Texas manager Chris Woodward told Alanna Rizzo and Chris Russo of the MLB Network yesterday (video provided by Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). It’s certainly not a surprise to hear the Rangers are interested in the Dallas native, given their apparent willingness to spend this offseason and the three-time Cy Young award winner’s ties to the area.

That’s all the more true considering Woodward’s connection to Kershaw. The Texas skipper spent three years on the Dodgers’ coaching staff before assuming his current role, a stint that overlapped with the future Hall of Famer’s run of dominance in L.A. Woodward called it an honor “to be around (Kershaw)” in Los Angeles and noted that “if he wants to come back to Texas, I’m pretty sure we’re going to welcome him.”

That’s certainly not to suggest Kershaw to Arlington is a fait accompli. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has already gone on record as saying the star southpaw “will always have a spot” in Los Angeles if he’d prefer to return to the only organization he’s ever known. In explaining the club’s decision not to issue him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, Friedman suggested Kershaw preferred to take some time to talk through his free agency decision with his family and to continue to rehab from the forearm/elbow injury that ended his 2021 season early.

The Dodgers and Rangers have long been viewed as the favorites to land Kershaw this winter, and it seems he’ll have his choice of either destination. Plenty of other clubs would happily jump into the bidding were Kershaw to cast a wider net geographically, although he’s been fairly quiet publicly about his preferences this offseason.

While Kershaw’s season didn’t end the way he or the Dodgers had envisioned, he remained very productive when healthy enough to pitch. Across 121 2/3 innings, the 2014 NL MVP worked to a 3.55 ERA with an elite 29.5% strikeout rate and a minuscule 4.3% walk percentage. He hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 since his 2008 rookie campaign, and Kershaw has incredibly managed a sub-3.00 mark in eleven of his fourteen major league seasons.

Rangers Acquire Billy McKinney, Zach Reks From Dodgers

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The Rangers announced they’ve acquired corner outfielders Billy McKinney and Zach Reks from the Dodgers in exchange for cash considerations. Both players were designated for assignment by Los Angeles last Friday, as many teams cleared roster space for prospects whom they didn’t want to leave eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  Texas’ 40-man roster tally is up to 39.

McKinney has bounced around the league a fair amount this year. He opened the season with the Brewers but landed with the Mets via minor trade a few weeks into the season. After two months in Queens, McKinney was designated for assignment and traded to the Dodgers. The 27-year-old finished out the season in Southern California.

Between the three clubs, the left-handed hitting McKinney tallied exactly 300 plate appearances. It was a career-high in playing time, but the former first-rounder didn’t consistently perform at the plate. While he had a solid run with the Mets, McKinney struggled badly with the Brew Crew and Dodgers and ultimately managed a meager .192/.280/.358 season line with nine home runs. His 10.7% walk rate was solid, but McKinney also fanned at a higher-than-average 26.3% clip and didn’t hit for a ton of power. He’s out of minor league option years, so he’ll need to either break camp with Texas in 2022 or again be made available to the rest of the league.

Reks has essentially no big league body of work to speak of, with just ten MLB plate appearances under his belt. The 28-year-old is an accomplished minor league hitter, though, with a career .295/.383/.487 line on the farm. That includes a .282/.382/.529 showing across 764 plate appearances with the Dodgers’ top affiliate in Oklahoma City, where Reks has shown a promising combination of patience and power.

He’s a defensively-limited player with strikeout concerns, but there’s little harm for the Rangers in adding him for nothing more than cash considerations. The left-handed hitting Reks still has a pair of options remaining, so he can shuttled up and down between Arlington and Triple-A Round Rock through the end of the 2023 campaign if he sticks on the 40-man roster.

Rangers Meet With Corey Seager, Marcus Semien

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  • Members of the Rangers front office recently met with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien in California, The Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant reports.  Texas was already known to have interest in both free agent shortstops, so the in-person meetings represent the next logical step in the pursuit, especially since the Rangers have also met face-to-face with another available shortstop in Trevor Story.  After five consecutive losing seasons, the Rangers are looking eager to return to contention, and are known to be willing to spend at the highest ends of the free agent market.  Since Seager, Semien, and Story all rejected qualifying offers, Texas would have to give up $500K in international bonus pool money and their second-highest pick in the 2022 draft as compensation — which is another sign of the Rangers’ aggression, considering that pick would be the third choice of the second round.

Tigers, Rangers Showing Interest In Marcus Semien

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Many people inside and outside the industry have long predicted the Tigers as the eventual landing spot for top free agent shortstop Carlos Correa. The calculus to get him there is relatively straightforward. The Tigers have the clearest need in the league at shortstop. They are an up-and-coming team with a relatively clear financial ledger. There’s a clear interpersonal link with manager A.J. Hinch having managed Correa in Houston.

Everything adds up – except that the Tigers aren’t planning on putting all their free agent dollars in a single basket, making Javier Baez or Marcus Semien more likely targets for Detroit, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network, (via Twitter). The Tigers already made a significant financial investment to Eduardo Rodriguez, so there’s certainly some logic to Detroit targeting the mid-tier free agent shortstops.

The Rangers are also showing interest in Semien, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). If the Rangers can add a top shortstop, Isiah Kiner-Falefa could move back to third base, where he previously won a gold glove award. Texas has also shown interest in Corey Seager and Trevor Story. Texas is reportedly willing to spend upwards of $200MM for the right guy, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

Semien, at 31, is presumably looking for a shorter-term deal that Correa, who can reasonably expect a deal in the $200-300MM range. Semien’s deal, while significant, will presumably fall far short of that range, even after a 7.3 rWAR season. MLBTR predicted Correa to get more than double Semien in terms of raw dollars ($320MM over ten for Correa, $138MM over six for Semien).

The Blue Jays, of course, continue to have interest in a reunion with Semien, though their needs are flexible enough that a bidding war could push them in a different direction. Like the Tigers, the Jays have already spent significant money this winter in the form of a reasonable extension for Jose Berrios.

Rangers Outright Kyle Cody, Edwar Colina

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The Rangers announced they’ve selected the contracts of infielder Ezequiel Duran and right-handers Ronny Henriquez and Ricky Vanasco. Additionally, righties Kyle Cody and Edwar Colina have cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Round Rock.

Duran was among the most important pickups from the Yankees in this past summer’s Joey Gallo trade. Baseball America ranked him fifth in the Texas system midseason, praising his bat-to-ball skills and power. The 22-year-old struggled with the Rangers after a scorching start in the Yankees’ system, but he always seemed like a lock to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. The Dominican Republic native hit .267/.342/.486 over 471 plate appearances at High-A this past season. Duran hasn’t yet reached Double-A, so he’s likely to spend most or all of next season in the minors.

Henriquez and Vansaco appeared on the back half of BA’s midseason top 30 Rangers’ prospects. Henriquez split the 2021 campaign between High-A and Double-A, struggling with home runs but posting quality strikeout and walk numbers at the latter stop. Vansaco missed the year recovering from Tommy John surgery but is regarded as a potential mid-rotation starter.

Neither Cody nor Colina have the service time to reject an outright assignment, so both will remain in the organization as non-roster depth. Cody owns a 3.71 ERA/4.58 SIERA over 34 major league innings since the start of 2020. Colina has pitched in just one MLB game and was recently claimed off waivers from the Twins.

Rangers Extend Manager Chris Woodward

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The Rangers announced Friday that manager Chris Woodward has been extended through the 2023 season with a club option for the 2024 campaign. Woodward was previously under contract only through the 2022 campaign, which will be his fourth year managing the club.

“We’re excited to continue our partnership with Woody, and we are all committed to a shared vision for the direction of the ballclub,” president of baseball operations Jon Daniels said in a statement within today’s press release. “He has helped to lay the foundation of our culture here at the Rangers, and we feel confident in his leadership abilities moving forward.”

The Rangers have gone 160-224 under Woodward, although the team didn’t make much of an effort to contend this past season. Rather, the 2021 campaign was, by design, dedicated to paring back payroll and giving younger players the opportunity to cement themselves as future regulars. That didn’t work out in all cases, though Texas certainly has to be encouraged by strides seen from Adolis Garcia, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Dane Dunning and Joe Barlow, among others.

The 2022 season will carry more of a win-now mindset, as the Rangers plan to be aggressive in their pursuit of free agents this winter with a nearly-blank payroll slate moving forward. It’s not realistic to forecast a return an immediate return to contention, regardless of who they sign off the open market, but with several other key prospects rising through the system (e.g. third baseman Josh Jung, right-hander Jack Leiter), the 2023 Rangers could have the makings of a competitive club.

Woodward’s extension is yet another reminder of the fact that managers are evaluated based off far more than wins and losses — and generally off a slate of factors that aren’t even visible to the public eye.

“After seeing Woody’s passion and consistency first-hand over the last year, extending our partnership is an easy decision,” general manager Chris Young said in his own statement today. “I look forward to continuing our shared commitment to improving the club.”

Trevor Story Meets With Rangers

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The Rangers hosted longtime Rockies shortstop (and Dallas-area native) Trevor Story on Tuesday, per a report from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. While virtually every team with money to spend and a need up the middle is likely to at least the kick the tires on Story, the report of an in-person meeting suggests the Rangers may be looking to move early in the scramble for a historic class of high-end shortstops (a list that also includes Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Javier Baez).

Given their stated intention to be aggressive in free agency and their clear need at short, the Rangers are sure to at least check in with other free agent shortstops, but there’s more to recommend Story than his status as native son. MLBTR’s eighth-ranked free agent, Story didn’t have the strongest platform year (.251/.329/.471 in 595 plate appearances), but his career line of .272/.340/.523 stands out at the premium position of shortstop — particularly given Story’s top-notch glovework (69 DRS across six seasons).

Of course, it’s always worth caveating the offensive numbers of any player who’s played half his games a mile above sea level, and Story’s home-road splits are substantial. His career OPS at Coors Field (.972) tells a very different story than his OPS on the road (.752). Story’s OPS+ numbers — 103 in 2021, 112 for his career — adjust for park factors and may give a clearer picture of what teams ought to expect from him at the plate moving forward. He’s also entering his age-29 season (not to mention coming off an elbow injury that sapped his power for much of 2021), so he’s a solid bet to see at least some decline over the course of a long-term deal.

The Rangers have needs all over the diamond, and finding a place for Story would hardly be a challenge. While incumbent Isiah Kiner-Falefa put together a solid season overall (particularly with the glove), neither Brock Holt nor Charlie Culberson (the Ranger’s primary third basemen in 2021, both of whom are free agents) are likely to feature in the club’s long-term (or, frankly, short-term) plans, and it isn’t clear that they view Andy Ibañez or Nick Solak as the long-term solution at second.

Because Story declined a qualifying offer, the team that signs him will have to forfeit a draft pick. As the Rangers neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue-sharing payments in 2021, the two-time all-star would cost the club its second-highest 2022 draft pick (currently the third pick of the second round) and $500K in international bonus pool money (here is an MLBTR primer on how compensation works). MLBTR predicts he’ll get a six-year, $126MM deal and lists the Rangers as a likely suitor, though they’re hardly alone. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported Tuesday that at least eight teams have checked in with Story’s representatives.

Latest On Starling Marte’s Market

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We’ve seen an unusual number of high-profile free agents come off the board in the first few weeks of November, though they’ve all been pitchers to this point. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggests, however, that the market for Starling Marte is strong enough that he could also sign this month, prior to the Dec. 1 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement.

That the 33-year-old Marte would command robust interest is only logical, given his longstanding track record and a brilliant 2021 campaign. While he’s a older than your typical free agent thanks to the club-friendly contract he inked early in his career, Marte has shown no signs of slowing down. To the contrary, his 2021 season was arguably his best yet. In 526 plate appearances between the Marlins and A’s, Marte turned in a .308/.381/.456 with a dozen home runs, 27 doubles and three triples — all while going 47-for-52 in stolen base attempts. He’s also perhaps the lone everyday center field option on the market.

Even if conventional wisdom suggests that the fleet-footed Marte will eventually slow down and move to a corner in a few years’ time, he still grades out as a plus runner and a respectable defensive option in center for the time being. Both Outs Above Average (2) and Ultimate Zone Rating (1.0) graded Marte as slightly above average, whereas Defensive Runs Saved was a bit below-average at minus-4. Make what you will of defensive metrics, which can of course be spotty on a year-to-year basis, but Marte has generally been passable in center and plus in left field. He also still ranks in the 83rd percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed (28.4 ft/sec).

Given the scarcity of Marte’s skill set, the number of teams looking for help in the outfield (center field, in particular) and the lack of qualifying offer attached to him (he was ineligible by virtue of being traded), it’s no wonder that his market has quickly picked up steam. Prior reports have linked the Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Yankees and Giants to Marte, and Heyman tweeted this week that the Rangers — whom most expect to be quite aggressive in free agency — have also been weighing a run at Marte. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds this morning that the Astros, fresh off re-signing Justin Verlander, are being aggressive in their own efforts to sign Marte.

As we noted when ranking Marte 13th on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 free agent rankings, the list of teams with interest in bringing Marte aboard will be quite long. He’s been widely expected to command at least a three-year deal in free agency — the Marlins offered a lowball, three-year deal in the $30-39MM range prior to trading him — and with a number of recent free agents commanding premium salaries through age-36, we pegged him for a four-year deal at a total of $80MM.

Several High-End Free Agents Could Sign Before CBA Expires

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The 2021-22 offseason is unlike any we’ve seen in recent history, with players and teams somewhat flying blind as the expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement looms at 11:59pm ET on Dec. 1. Because of the widely expected lockout and uncertainty as to what changes will be made to key economic facets of Major League Baseball — the luxury tax, the arbitration system, the potential implementation of a salary floor — there’s been fairly prevalent speculation that the majority of major free-agent dealings would only occur after a lockout has been resolved.

That’s not necessarily the case, ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes in his takeaway column from this week’s GM Meetings in California. To the contrary, there’s a sense that top free agents Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and a few prominent starting pitchers could come off the board while the current CBA is still in play. Similarly, some in the industry expect that at least some of the offseason’s most aggressive teams (e.g. Rangers, Tigers, Mariners, Blue Jays) could be highly active in the days and hours leading up to the current agreement’s expiration, per Passan.

To some extent, it’s only logical to see the markets for certain top-of-the-scale free agents crystallize more quickly than others. Seager is one of the top two names on the market, while Semien is coming off the best season of any of the “second tier” of shortstops — those expected to sign north of $100MM but well beneath the likely $300MM+ price range of Seager and Carlos Correa.

Demand figures to be robust for both Seager and Semien. And, with likely interest from teams that won’t have immediate luxury-tax concerns regardless of who they sign, thanks to fairly wide-open payroll outlays, not every interested team will be overly concerned with waiting to see how the luxury tax unfolds. A lack of luxury-tax concern among Texas, Detroit, Seattle and Toronto surely dovetails with expectations that they could act more quickly than, say, the Yankees or Dodgers — both of whom will be keenly interested in the particulars of a restructured competitive balance tax.

Both Seager and Semien are of interest to the Yankees, Passan reemphasizes, though that much is well known by this point. Yankees GM Brian Cashman effectively kicked off the team’s offseason by announcing his desire to improve at shortstop, and it’d frankly be more surprising to learn that the Yanks were “out” on any one of the top free-agent shortstops than to hear they’re still in the mix.

There’s certainly no guarantee that either Seager or Semien will sign prior to Dec. 1, but it’s also in many ways sensible for both teams and players to want to strike early. Assuming there is indeed a lockout, MLB free agency would resume at a rather frenzied pace. There’d be obvious benefit to teams having cost certainty and avoiding some of that chaos by checking a big-ticket item off the list early in the process. From the players’ vantage point, there has to be concern about getting lost in the shuffle — particularly among second- or third-tier names. Furthermore, as is the case every winter, free agents tend to prefer the certainty of knowing where they (and their families) will be for the foreseeable future.

Even from an agency standpoint, early deals make some sense, if the demand is sufficient enough to drum up a palatable offer. For instance, the Boras Corporation represents both Seager and Semien, but they’ll also be negotiating deals for Max Scherzer, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon, Yusei Kikuchi and James Paxton, among others. It’s a lot to juggle in what would be a condensed free-agent period, post-lockout. It’s easy to see the appeal of an early contract or two for any agency with a lengthy client list this winter.

To this point, there’s been little in the way of actual activity, save for a trio of  one-year deals for Andrew Heaney (Dodgers), T.J. McFarland (Cardinals) and Joely Rodriguez (Yankees). Teams and agencies acting with a bit of increased urgency, however, carries the potential for a perhaps brief flurry of deals in the next three weeks, even if the prevailing wisdom is that the majority of the offseason’s heavy lifting will come in the wake of, and not in advance of, a lockout and subsequent transaction freeze.

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