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Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Blue Jays Outright Junior Fernandez

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The Blue Jays announced that reliever Junior Fernández has gone unclaimed on waivers. He’s been assigned outright to Triple-A Buffalo. He’d been designated for assignment last week after Toronto finalized the acquisition of starter Zach Thompson from Pittsburgh.

Fernández has bounced around a bit over the past few months. Initially an amateur signee of the Cardinals in 2014, he’d spent his entire career in the St. Louis organization until being designated for assignment last September. Fernández landed with the division-rival Pirates on waivers and finished the 2022 season there, making three appearances down the stretch. At season’s end, Pittsburgh designated him for assignment to clear 40-man roster space for prospects they wanted to keep out of the Rule 5 draft.

The 25-year-old then landed with the Yankees and Blue Jays on successive waiver claims. His stay on the Toronto 40-man lasted less than a week, with Fernández claimed on January 5 and DFA five days later. Now that Toronto has succeeded in running him through waivers, he’ll remain in the organization as upper minors depth. Fernández has never previously been outrighted and has less than three years of big league service time, meaning he doesn’t have the ability to elect minor league free agency.

Fernández has appeared at the MLB level in parts of the last four seasons. The righty has thrown 54 innings across 50 outings, compiling a 5.17 ERA. He’s induced grounders on nearly half the batted balls he’s allowed but paired that with a mediocre 18.7% strikeout percentage and lofty 13.9% walk rate.

While he’s yet to find much consistent success, it’s easy to see why multiple teams have given Fernández a look over the past few months. He averaged 98.7 MPH on his sinker and 88.9 MPH on his slider during his 16 big league outings last year. That velocity hasn’t translated into many strikeouts but has gotten a decent number of swings and misses; opponents have whiffed at 13.5% of the pitches he’s thrown throughout his MLB career, a rate that’s roughly two points higher than average.

Fernández figures to get a non-roster invitation to MLB Spring Training. Assuming he doesn’t break camp with the big league team, he’ll report to Buffalo. Owner of a 4.12 ERA and quality 27% strikeout rate through 83 career Triple-A innings, he’ll be an interesting bullpen depth flier for the Jays. He is out of minor league option years, however. That means if the Jays promote him to the majors at any point, they’ll either have to keep him in the big leagues or again make him available to other teams via trade or waivers.

Cubs Claim Julian Merryweather, Designate Manuel Rodríguez

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The Cubs have claimed right-hander Julian Merryweather off waivers from the Blue Jays, reports Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Merryweather had been designated for assignment by the Jays last week. In a corresponding move, fellow righty Manuel Rodríguez has been designated for assignment.

Merryweather, 31, was drafted by Cleveland but went to the Blue Jays in the 2018 trade that saw Josh Donaldson go the other way. He has pitched in each of the past three MLB seasons, flashing elite velocity on his fastball, which has averaged in the 96-98 mph range in each of those campaigns.

Despite that blazing speed, Merryweather hasn’t had good results so far. He struck out 27.3% of batters faced in 2020 but saw that number drop to 21.8% and 19.3% in the past two seasons. That coincided with an increase in his ERA, going from 4.15 to 4.85 and 6.75 in the most recent season. In addition to those struggles, health is an ongoing concern. Though he pitched over 40 innings in 2022, the previous four years each saw him fall short of 20 frames.

Merryweather’s been much better in the minors, such as pitching 14 1/3 scoreless innings at Triple-A last year with a 32.7% strikeout rate. However, he’s now out of options and the Cubs will have to keep him on their active roster or else send him into DFA limbo again. If they can help him turn his huge velocity into better results, they can keep him around for many seasons via arbitration since Merryweather has just over two years of MLB service time.

In adding one flamethrower, the Cubs are risking losing another. Rodríguez, 26, averaged 97.2 mph on his sinker in 2021 and 95.9 mph last year. But like Merryweather, he hasn’t turned that into punchouts, striking out just 17.1% of batters faced in 31 1/3 major league innings thus far. He has gotten ground balls at a solid 53.2% clip but has also given free passes to 15% of batters faced.

The Cubs will now have a week to trade Rodríguez or pass him through waivers. He still has one option year remaining and just over a year of service time. Given his youth and potent velocity, he could find interest from other clubs that are looking for some pitching depth.

Boras: Blue Jays, Cubs, Twins “Were Really After” Xander Bogaerts

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Xander Bogaerts’ first visit to free agency resulted in an 11-year, $280MM deal with the Padres that greatly exceeded projections, even for a player who was expected to land one of the offseason’s biggest contracts.  Agent Scott Boras discussed some of the twists and turns of Bogaerts’ free agent trip with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, and Boras identified that Bogaerts was San Diego’s second choice, once Trea Turner rejected a reported $342MM offer from the Padres.

Once Turner turned down the Padres’ offer to sign with the Phillies, “we kind of knew the Padres’ guy was Bogaerts,” Boras said.  “They wanted that personality, that leadership in that locker room.”  Left unspoken by Boras was the fact that the Padres were clearly itching to land a big target of some kind, even to the point of considering a $400MM bid for Aaron Judge.  With Judge and Turner off the board, the Padres may have been more willing to go above and beyond to sign Bogaerts, and ensure that their offseason endeavors would include at least one superstar name.

The Red Sox reportedly made a last-ditch effort to sign Bogaerts in the hours preceding his deal with San Diego, though Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom later downplayed the chances that a reunion between Bogaerts and the Red Sox was becoming a possibility.  There were mixed signals from Boston’s ownership and front office all season long about the franchise’s willingness to retain Bogaerts, and from Boras’ perspective, the Red Sox weren’t ever a major bidder.

“It was just really clear to us there was a separation where Boston was going to go for Bogaerts, compared to where the market was,” Boras said.  “They probably made a decision they were going to sign [Rafael] Devers, and were going to pay only one of them.  So we knew at the forefront that Bogey would be somewhere besides Boston.”

Sure enough, the Red Sox indeed ended up extending Devers, while Bogaerts landed in San Diego.  As for other teams in the hunt, such teams as the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Mariners, Dodgers, and Giants were all linked to Bogaerts at various points in the offseason, even if some of these pursuits were perhaps more cursory than others.  Boras implied that three teams in particular (beyond the Padres) separated themselves from the pack, saying that “Minnesota, the Cubs, the Blue Jays, they were really after” Bogaerts’ services.

The Cubs and Twins were already known to be Bogaerts’ suitors, and as both clubs were monitoring the high-end shortstop market and eventually came away with two of the winter’s top options at the position — Chicago signed Dansby Swanson, while Minnesota (eventually) reunited with Carlos Correa.  The Twins’ interest in Bogaerts was framed as a backup plan if Correa signed elsewhere, though Bogaerts ended up signing with the Padres before Correa agreed to his initial deal with the Giants.  As for the Cubs, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote that the team gave some consideration to the idea of signing both Bogaerts and Swanson, with Bogaerts playing third base in that blockbuster scenario.

It makes for some fascinating “what-if” material, since neither the Twins or the Cubs were previously considered top candidates to sign Bogaerts.  However, the Blue Jays’ involvement is perhaps the most interesting, as Toronto hadn’t previously been linked to Bogaerts or any of the top shortstops whatsoever.  While the aggressive Jays are known to be a team that routinely checks in on most free agents as a matter of due diligence, Toronto’s focus was known to be on the club’s greater needs in the outfield and in the rotation.  Such names as Justin Verlander, Brandon Nimmo, and Kodai Senga were among the many players linked to the Blue Jays, and Toronto has thus far signed Chris Bassitt, Kevin Kiermaier, and Brandon Belt, while Daulton Varsho and Erik Swanson were respectively acquired in major trades with the Diamondbacks and Mariners that saw Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Teoscar Hernandez change uniforms.

These moves have sent the Jays’ payroll to franchise-record heights, and set the team up to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the first time.  So in that sense, making a splash to sign Bogaerts wouldn’t have been out of line with the Blue Jays’ spending habits, even if obviously landing Bogaerts would have entirely changed the scope of Toronto’s offseason.

First and foremost, the Blue Jays already have a star shortstop in Bo Bichette, who is only entering his age-25 season and already amassed two top-12 finishes in AL MVP voting, an All-Star nod, and 9.6 fWAR in 2021-22.  (For comparison, Bogaerts had 10.4 fWAR in 2021-22.)  Bichette’s success at the plate, however, was tempered by a rather drastic defensive decline in 2022, as public metrics placed Bichette among the league’s worst defensive players.  Ironically, Bogaerts’ glovework had long been a source of controversy, but he quelled some doubts over his viability as a shortstop by delivering the best defensive season of his career in 2022.

Had the Jays signed Bogaerts, they could’ve installed him at shortstop and moved Bichette to second base, and then used the current collection of second-base options (i.e. Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, Whit Merrifield) either purely as depth options or as trade chips.  Since Matt Chapman is a free agent after the 2023 season, the Blue Jays might’ve considered moving Bogaerts to third base at that point and returning Bichette to shortstop, if Chapman wasn’t retained.  Or, if signing Bogaerts would’ve taken up much or all of Toronto’s payroll space, the Blue Jays might have been considered trading Bichette in order to address other needs.  If the Jays hadn’t had the money to sign a Bassitt-level starter, for instance, Bichette could have been shopped to land a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Blue Jays Bullpen Coach Matt Buschmann Departs Organization

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The Blue Jays have announced that bullpen coach Matt Buschmann is leaving the organization to pursue other opportunities. Buschmann had been with the Blue Jays since 2018, and also served as the team’s director of pitching development since 2020. Toronto also announced that it will complete its coaching staff in the coming weeks.

Buschmann, 38, was a 15th-round draft pick out of Vanderbilt University by the Padres in 2006. He would work his way through the Friars’ minor league system, spending time with both their Double- and Triple-A affiliates in 2009, 2010, and 2011, but would struggle and post combined ERAs north of 5. He was eventually selected in the Double-A portion of the Rule 5 Draft by the Nationals who flipped him to the Rays for cash considerations in 2012.

Like with the Padres, Buschmann’s time with the Rays was limited to Double- and Triple-A baseball. He would work to a 2.86 ERA in 160 2/3 innings during the 2013 season across the two levels but did not receive a call-up. The righty left the team in free agency and joined the Athletics for the 2014 season, re-signing with the club for the 2015 season. However, he would be traded back to the Rays for cash considerations before the season began but was released mid-way through the season. He had a short stint with the Reds’ minor league affiliate before he was traded to the Orioles for cash.

Buschmann signed with the Diamondbacks ahead of his age-32 season in 2016, and would finally earn a promotion to the majors 10 years after he was drafted. However, he would only make three appearances at the major league level, pitching 4 1/3 innings while allowing two hits (one home run), striking out three, and walking one. Following this brief appearance, he was designated for assignment and outrighted to Triple-A Reno, where he finished the 2016 season. Ahead of the 2017 season, Buschmann signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays but did not make an appearance with the club before transitioning into a coaching role.

Notable International Signings: 1/15/2023

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Major League Baseball’s international signing period for 2023 has officially opened up today, with many of the big names signing almost immediately. Teams have long since agreed to verbal agreements with newly eligible teenage players, and today’s signings largely represent confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon the start of their professional careers.

As previously mentioned, most of the agreements have been known for a while, with Baseball America’s Ben Badler and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez having listed each player’s expected landing spot. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Here are a few key deals:

  • Ethan Salas, C, Venezuela — Padres ($5.6MM): Ranked as the top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, the 16-year-old is considered by MLB Pipeline as “one of the best catching prospects in recent history” and is lauded for his strike zone control, power, and defense. Scouts have specifically highlighted his swing and soft hands. Born in June 2006, the backstop is the youngest player in MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 International Prospect Rankings. The young switch-hitter is no stranger to high-level baseball, with his grandfather, father, and uncle all playing professionally, and his older brother Jose Salas signed by the Marlins in 2019. Salas’ $5.6MM deal will comprise almost all of the Padres’ base signing pool of $5.825,000.
  • Felnin Celesten, SS, Dominican Republic — Mariners ($4.7MM): MLB Pipeline’s second-best prospect and Baseball America’s third-best, Celesten has been heralded as having “the highest ceiling of any international shortstop prospect in a decade” by MLB Pipeline. Scouts have noted the switch-hitter’s plus speed, arm, and raw power. However, Baseball America reports that Celesten has “an aggressive approach” and “might need to become a more selective hitter.“
  • Brando Mayea, OF, Cuba — Yankees ($4.4MM): Baseball America’s second-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s ninth-best, Mayea has drawn praise for his bat speed, power, and approach to the plate, with one scout going as far as to describe the 17-year-old as a “mini Gary Sheffield.” Scouts have praised the righty’s strong arm, with some expecting an eventual move to a corner outfield position.
  • Alfredo Duno, C, Venezuela — Reds (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fourth-best prospect and Baseball America’s seventh-best, Duno is a 17-year-old catcher that boasts three above-average tools — his fielding, arm, and power. Scouts have praised his “elite bat speed” and defensive ability. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both predict that Duno will remain behind the plate, but both also cite his swing-and-miss tendencies as a result of his aggressive approach.
  • Emmanuel Bonilla, OF, Dominican Republic — Blue Jays ($4.1MM): Baseball America’s fourth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s seventh-best, Bonilla profiles as a slugging outfielder that has a chance to remain in centerfield but will likely move to a corner position as the 16-year-old matures. Scouts have praised the righty’s bat speed and swing, with Baseball America reporting that some scouts believe Bonilla has “one of the best combinations of hitting ability and power in the class.”
  • Luis Morales, RHP, Cuba — Athletics (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fifth-best prospect and Baseball America’s ninth-best, Morales is a hard-throwing righty with a fastball that sits between 94-97 MPH with a slider, changeup, and curveball as secondary pitches. Born in Cuba, Morales was considered the best U-18 pitcher on the island, setting a record for strikeouts (161) in 82 2/3 innings between 2019 and 2020. He defected in 2021 while playing for Cuba’s U-23 team in Mexico. Morales, 20, is one of the oldest high-profile international prospects and thus may be potentially fast-tracked through the A’s system.
  • Sebastian Walcott, SS, Bahamas — Rangers (Unknown): Baseball America’s sixth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s eighth-best, Walcott is a 6’3, 170 lbs (6’4, 190 lbs, per Baseball America) 16-year-old that has impressed scouts with high raw power and bat speed. Despite being 6’3, Walcott has drawn praise for his contact skills, hand-eye coordination, and his fluid swing. Baseball America projects that as Walcott matures, he will outgrow the shortstop position and transition to third base. 

Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2M or more, with the specifics provided by Sanchez:

  • Brailer Guerrero, OF, D.R., Rays ($3.7MM)     [MLB Pipeline #12, BA #5]
  • Jesus Caba, SS, D.R., Phillies ($3MM)                [MLB Pipeline #11, BA #8]
  • Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba, Twins ($2.5MM)            [MLB Pipeline #11, BA#13]
  • Rayner Arias, OF, D.R., Giants ($2.8MM)          [MLB Pipeline #15, BA #8]
  • Camilo Diaz, OF, D.R., Astros ($2.25MM)          [MLB Pipeline #17, BA #19]
  • Luis Almeyda, SS, D.R., Orioles ($2.3MM)        [MLB Pipeline #20, BA #17]
  • Roberto Calaz, OF, D.R., Rockies ($2.5MM)     [MLB Pipeline #24, BA #14]

Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Avoid Arbitration

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The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are in agreement on a $14.5MM deal for the 2023 season to avoid arbitration, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Guerrero Jr., who has spent his entire career as a member of the Blue Jays organization, was the universally-recognized top prospect in baseball ahead of his major league debut in 2019. While his debut season was solid for a rookie, it failed to meet those lofty expectations as he slashed .271/.339/.433 (106 wRC+) across 123 games in the big leagues. The shortened 2020 season was more of the same for Guerrero Jr. as he posted a wRC+ of 110 while largely repeating his 2019 stats, with slight improvements to his ISO and strikeout rate being largely cancelled out by a drop in his BABIP.

Guerrero Jr. fulfilled the promise of his top prospect status and then some in 2021, however. In 161 games, Guerrero Jr. slashed a phenomenal .311/.401/.601, good for a whopping 166 wRC+ that led the slugger not only to his first All Star appearance, but a second place finish in MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. Following that banner season, Guerrero Jr. came back down to earth somewhat in 2022, though he was still far better than he had been in the first two seasons of his career. A slash line of .274/.339/.480 was good for a wRC+ of 132, a second All Star appearance, and some down-ballot MVP votes.

The $14.5MM agreement ties the record set by Pete Alonso earlier today for highest salary among arbitration-eligible first basemen. Guerrero will again be eligible for arbitration both next offseason and ahead of the 2025 campaign, and is set to become a free agent during the 2025-26 offseason. It’s possible Toronto will lock Guerrero Jr. up before then, however, seeing as the slugger publicly stated that he was open to a long-term extension earlier this offseason. Today’s agreement does not preclude a longer deal later on this offseason, though there haven’t been many rumblings of such an agreement being in the works to this point.

Blue Jays, Jay Jackson Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays are signing reliever Jay Jackson to a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). He’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.

The 35-year-old has seen some big league action in four seasons, including each of the last couple years. He only pitched twice at the highest level for the Braves last season, working 1 1/3 scoreless frames. He was held out of action for the first couple months by a lat strain and spent the bulk of the year on optional assignment to Triple-A Gwinnett.

Jackson pitched very well for the Stripers, allowing only five runs over 19 2/3 innings. He struck out 25 of the 80 hitters he faced (a 31.3% clip) while walking just four. Despite that quality work, Jackson couldn’t seize a spot in an Atlanta bullpen that was one of the sport’s deepest. The Braves ran him through outright waivers in September and he reached minor league free agency at season’s end.

The veteran hurler logged more extensive MLB action with the Giants during the 2021 campaign. He threw 21 2/3 innings through 23 outings for San Francisco, posting a 3.74 ERA while punching out 31.1% of batters faced. He missed plenty of bats but struggled with wobbly control, doling out free passes to more than 13% of opponents.

Jackson will be in camp and vie for a spot in a Toronto bullpen that could have a few openings in the middle innings. Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Anthony Bass, Yimi García and Tim Mayza should have spots secured. Adam Cimber and out-of-options hurlers Trevor Richards and Mitch White could have the inside track at the remaining jobs but don’t seem as firmly penciled in. Jackson has one minor league option year remaining.

Blue Jays Sign Brandon Belt

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January 10: The Jays have officially announced Belt’s signing.

January 9: After 12 seasons with the Giants, Brandon Belt is headed to Toronto. He’s in agreement with the Blue Jays on a one-year, $9.3MM contract for the 2023 season. The Excel Sports Management client has reportedly already passed his physical. The Jays are expected to formally announce the signing Tuesday, at which point they’ll need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move.

A fifth-round pick by San Francisco in 2009, Belt reached the majors two seasons later. He played in 63 games as a rookie and took hold of the primary first base job by his second season. Belt was a key contributor on San Francisco’s 2012 World Series team, hitting .275/.360/.421 over 145 games. Injuries limited him to 61 regular season contests during the 2014 season but he was healthy enough to contribute to San Francisco’s third title in five years during the playoffs.

Belt battled intermittent injury issues throughout the coming years. When healthy, he was a consistently productive offensive player. While San Francisco’s pitcher-friendly home ballpark depressed his over-the-fence power, he was an annual threat for 30+ doubles and posted huge on-base numbers thanks to massive walk rates. At the start of the 2016 season, the Giants inked Belt to a $72.8MM extension that kept him off the open market through the 2021 campaign. He followed up with a .275/.394/.474 showing through 655 trips to the plate, earning his only career All-Star nod in the process.

The Texas product saw his production tail off a bit over the next few seasons, hitting at a slightly above-average level through 2019. He rebounded in a huge way in 2020, mashing at a .309/.425/.591 clip to secure some down-ballot MVP support during the shortened season. He continued to rake the following season but saw that year frequently interrupted by injury. Belt lost time to a left oblique strain and soreness in his right knee but managed a .274/.378/.597 showing while shattering his previous career mark with 29 home runs in just 97 games. Unfortunately, an errant pitch fractured his left thumb late in the season and he wasn’t able to participate in San Francisco’s playoff run.

In advance of what was set to be Belt’s first trip to free agency, the Giants tagged him with an $18.9MM qualifying offer. He accepted and returned to the Bay Area for another season. Injuries again proved problematic, this time seemingly have a deleterious effect on his performance even when he did manage to take the field. Belt had a trio of IL stints last season and while the first was a very brief absence related to COVID-19, the latter two were more worrisome. He lost around three weeks between May and June due to inflammation in his balky right knee and that again arose in mid-August.

After his second knee-related IL placement, the veteran elected to shut things down and undergo season-ending surgery. It was the third surgical procedure he’d undergone on that knee. Belt acknowledged he might contemplate retirement if recovery didn’t go well, but he told reporters a few weeks later he felt revitalized by the operation.

The injuries sent him to the open market in advance of his age-35 campaign coming off arguably his worst season. He hit .213/.326/.350 through 298 trips to the plate. Belt still walked at an excellent 12.4% clip but saw his power production drop. He managed eight home runs and posted a career-low .138 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Belt’s 38.5% hard contact rate, while still a bit better than average, was markedly down from his 2020-21 levels.

Toronto clearly believes that diminished production was a symptom of the injuries, which the club can hope won’t be as concerning after last summer’s surgery. If Belt can recapture any of his previous form, he’d add a quality left-handed bat to a predominantly right-handed lineup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be the everyday first baseman. Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk figure to get a decent number of designated hitter at-bats when the other is in the lineup at catcher. Everyone in that group hits from the right side, so Belt adds some balance to the mix. None of those players will be strictly relegated to the short side of a platoon by Belt but he adds another high-upside offensive option for skipper John Schneider.

It’s a short-term deal but isn’t an insignificant commitment for the club. Tacking on Belt’s $9.3MM salary brings Toronto’s projected 2023 payroll a bit above $212MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That shatters last year’s approximate $171MM commitment, which had been a franchise record. More notably, it firmly positions the Jays as likely luxury tax payors for the first time in franchise history. The organization is up around $242MM in tax obligations, according to Roster Resource. After entering the night within a rounding error of the base threshold of $233MM, they’re pushing well past it to bring in more offensive help.

A team’s CBT number is officially tabulated at the end of the season, so the front office could theoretically look for ways to dip back under the line. That seems unlikely as the Jays battle for what they hope will be their first AL East title in eight years. Toronto boasts one of the league’s best lineups but could still look for help at the back of the rotation or in the bullpen over the next couple months.

The Blue Jays will pay a 20% tax on their first $20MM in CBT overages. They’re set to take on around $1.84MM in fees as a result of this signing, meaning their actual commitment to bring in Belt is closer to $11MM. If they surpass the $253MM mark, they’d be taxed at a 30% rate on any additional overages. Going past $273MM would come with further penalties.

San Francisco will move forward without one of the last remaining players from their excellent run in the first half of the last decade. Brandon Crawford is the only player from the 2014 team who’s still a Giant. It had long looked as if the club were going in that direction this offseason, with LaMonte Wade Jr. and J.D. Davis looking likely to share first base reps.

Belt had been one of the top first basemen still available on the open market. The free agent class at the position is now led by Trey Mancini and Yuli Gurriel, while Luke Voit and Miguel Sanó are around as bounceback targets for clubs looking to roll the dice on a power bat.

 Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle was first to report Belt and the Blue Jays were in agreement on a one-year contract that’d be announced Tuesday and that Belt had already passed his physical. Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic was first with the $9.3MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Blue Jays Designate Julian Merryweather For Assignment

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The Blue Jays have made their signing of Brandon Belt official, announcing the move today. To open a spot for him on the 40-man roster, right-hander Julian Merryweather has been designated for assignment.

Merryweather, 31, has spent the past three seasons in the Blue Jays’ bullpen after being acquired in the trade that sent Josh Donaldson from Toronto to Cleveland in 2018. He’s shown flashes of potential as a hard-thrower with near top-of-the-line velocity and above-average spin on his heater. However, even though Merryweather has averaged better than 97 mph on that fastball, he’s posted a below-average 21.8% strikeout rate in his career while logging a 5.64 ERA in 52 2/3 frames.

Merryweather’s 7.4% walk rate has been sharp, but he’s also been quite homer-prone in his big league career, yielding eight long balls in those 52 2/3 Major League innings. It’s tempting to assume that’s due to the hitter-friendly nature of his home park, but Merryweather has allowed more long balls on the road (five) than in Toronto (three) in a nearly equal number of plate appearances. Opponents have regularly made hard contact against the 6’4″ righty, evidenced by average exit velocities of 90.3 mph in each of the past two seasons and hard-hit rates of 47.4% and 44.8% in 2021 and 2022.

Because he’s out of minor league options, Merryweather will need to either stick on a team’s Opening Day roster or else be passed through waivers in order to be sent to Triple-A. The Blue Jays themselves will have the opportunity to attempt to pass him through waivers, though they can also take the next few days to gauge interest in a trade before taking that step.

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