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Cubs Rumors

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Shark, Luebke, Cards

By Mark Polishuk and Zachary Links | March 27, 2016 at 7:04pm CDT

It was on this day in 2002 that the Cubs traded swingman Julian Tavarez and three prospects to the Marlins for Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca.  While Clement and Alfonseca were useful players for Chicago, this is definitely a “what if?” deal for the Cubs and their fans since Dontrelle Willis was one of the prospects sent to the Fish.  The deal immediately led to some pain for the Cubs when Willis’ Marlins beat Chicago in the 2003 NLCS (featuring the infamous Steve Bartman incident) en route to a World Series title.

Here’s some news from around the NL Central…

  • The Brewers announced several roster moves today, including the news that Will Middlebrooks, Eric Young Jr., Josmil Pinto, Shane Peterson, Manny Pina and Jake Elmore were told they won’t be making the Major League roster (Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has the rundown of all the transactions).  All six players will remain in the Brewers’ camp.  Five of the six were new arrivals this winter — Pina was part of the Francisco Rodriguez trade with the Tigers, Pinto was a waiver claim from the Padres, and Middlebrooks, Young and Elmore were all minor league signings.
  • Jeff Samardzija told ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers that he met with Theo Epstein this winter to explore a possible return to the Cubs,  though not much came from the talks.  “From where we were at, it takes a lot more to get a deal done. I think Theo had an idea of what they wanted and what they were looking for this year,” Samardzija said.  The new Giants rotation member also discusses his previous stint with the Cubs and how the club’s rebuilding process has seemed to pay off.
  • The Pirates reinvested in their bullpen this winter, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes, a strategy that makes an increasing amonut of financial and statistical sense, particularly for mid-market payroll clubs like the Bucs.
  • Now that Eric O’Flaherty has been traded to Atlanta, it looks like Cory Luebke is going to make the Pirates’ Opening Day roster, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweets.  The 31-year-old has reportedly clocking in at 94mph with his fastball and 87mph with his curve this spring.  Luebke has an opt-out on Tuesday but it sounds like the Bucs won’t give opposing teams a chance to snatch him up.
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says that the team’s decision on Rule 5 right-hander Matt Bowman “could come down to the final hour,” as Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com writes.  The Cardinals selected Bowman off of the Mets’ roster in December, making him their first Rule 5 selection in four years.  Roughly two weeks ago, ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin reported that Bowman was “more likely than not” to make the cut in St. Louis.
  • Cardinals third base coach Jose Oquendo will be taking a medical leave of absence to recover from offseason knee surgery, the club told reporters today (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).  Manager Mike Matheny said the Cards are preparing as if Oquendo will miss the entire season, and several members of the St. Louis coaching staff have shuffled positions.
  • The Reds have some decisions to make before Opening Day, as C. Trent Rosecrans and Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer project the club’s 25-man roster.
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NL Central Notes: Bailey, Smith, Jones, Braun, Victorino, Luebke

By Jeff Todd | March 25, 2016 at 6:01pm CDT

Reds righty Homer Bailey is progressing rapidly in his effort to return from Tommy John surgery, MLB.com’s Barry Bloom writes. The club is targeting a May 1 return, which would be less than a year from the date of his procedure. Manager Bryan Price actually suggested that Bailey could have been ready for the start of the season, but the organization chose not to “push him.” The right represents an important bounceback player to watch, given his huge contract. He says that recovery has been “smoother” than he anticipated and that he’s yet to experience discomfort throwing.

Here’s more from the NL Central:

  • There was plenty of news out of Brewers camp today, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports. Top reliever Will Smith is experiencing knee swelling and could miss the start of the season. That would leave Jeremy Jeffress as the obvious choice to handle the 9th while Smith works back to full speed.
  • Brewers Rule 5 pick Zack Jones has had shoulder issues all spring long and is going to start out on the DL. That could actually make it easier to keep him, as the team can bring him along slowly and give him some minor league time on a rehab assignment before exposing him to the majors.
  • The lower back soreness experienced recently by Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun appears to be an increasing concern. Manager Craig Counsell suggested that the team will exercise caution, but doesn’t expect the problem to disappear in the next few days. “We may have to manage this into the season,” said Counsell. “That’s becoming apparent now.”
  • Outfielder Shane Victorino discussed his status with the Cubs with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. It appears he’s still deciding whether to remain in the organization, but doesn’t seem inclined to retire. “I just still want to play the game I love,” Victorino said. “We all want to do that forever, but this time I really felt like I had made a turn for the better this offseason, going back to switch-hitting.” He added that he wouldn’t hesitate to call it quits if he felt otherwise, saying: “I am my hardest critic, so if I feel like I am done, no one would need to make that decision for me.”
  • Pirates lefty Cory Luebke has an opt-out date of Tuesday the 29th, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. That’ll be an interesting situation to monitor, as Luebke has reportedly been fairly impressive in camp — as we covered last night.
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MLBTR Podcast: John Baker Joins From Cubs’ Camp

By Cray Allred | March 24, 2016 at 11:30pm CDT

Former big league catcher John Baker joins the show to discuss his new role with the Cubs organization. Among the topics covered are the special vibe in camp and the organization’s supremely talented young backstops. Having recently written a piece for MLBTR describing the sense of anticipation as camp approaches, John also discusses what it’s like to be a player battling for a roster spot as camp draws to a close.

Also, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes hops on the line to dig into his first power rankings for the next class of free agents. Tim and host Jeff Todd exchange thoughts on players like Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gomez, Yoenis Cespedes, and more as the 2016 campaign nears its start.

Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.

The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast runs weekly on Thursday afternoons.

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Shane Victorino Won’t Make Cubs’ Roster, Mulling Rehab Offer

By Jeff Todd | March 24, 2016 at 6:02pm CDT

Cubs manager Joe Maddon announced today that outfielder Shane Victorino will not be on the Opening Day roster, as ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers was among those to report on Twitter. As an Article XX(B) free agent, he’d have posed a $100K retention bonus question to the club in just a few days’ time.

It appears that Chicago has offered Victorino an alternative arrangement, as MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. He is still considering the new deal, pursuant to which he’d rehab his ailing calf before reporting to Triple-A in hopes of earning a major league opportunity.

It’s not entirely clear whether a new contract is being contemplated or whether the veteran would be given his retention bonus (and an automatic June 1st opt-out date). Implicitly, it seems, he could instead elect to look for another organization on the open market.

Victorino, 35, signed on with the Cubs on a minor league deal in late February. He’s managed only ten plate appearances this spring, and already seemed to face an uphill battle to crack a roster full of outfield options. Long a sturdy regular, Victorino posted a meager .230/.308/.292 batting line in just 204 plate appearances last season — by far his worst output since he established himself in the majors back in 2006.

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Orioles Acquire Edgar Olmos

By Jeff Todd | March 24, 2016 at 3:13pm CDT

The Orioles have acquired lefty Edgar Olmos from the Cubs, per a Baltimore announcement. Chicago will receive a player to be named later in the swap.

Olmos will join just-signed southpaw Zach Phillips in the mix to fill in for injured reliever Brian Matusz. Baltimore gave Phillips a 40-man spot, but will be able to hold onto Olmos without committing to him on the major league roster since he was previously outrighted by Chicago.

Baltimore has obviously been intrigued with Olmos before, as he was briefly a member of the organization before the Cubs claimed him off waivers. Soon to turn 26, the former third-round draft pick only has minimal major league experience but posted a 3.55 ERA with 9.3 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 in 33 Triple-A innings last year.

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NL Central Notes: Lucroy, Bruce, Schwarber, Pirates

By Mark Polishuk | March 24, 2016 at 8:48am CDT

Here’s the latest from around the NL Central…

  • The Brewers were talking with the Astros and Braves about a three-team trade involving Jonathan Lucroy last month, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports.  Houston made an attempt at Lucroy earlier in the offseason, as previously reported by FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, and the club has also been linked to Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte.  This isn’t to say that Inciarte was also necessarily part of this three-team proposal, of course, as Atlanta’s role in the trade could’ve taken any number of forms.
  • Lucroy has been the subject of many trade rumors this winter, to the point that he and his family don’t have living arrangements in Milwaukee settled yet since he presumed he was going to be dealt.  “It’s all out of your control. But communication is a big thing. I’d like to be kept up to date what’s going on. It’s not like I’m going to spread it all around, I just want to know when it’s coming, when to expect it,” the longtime Brewers catcher said.
  • Also from Nightengale’s piece, he notes that the Reds were willing to pay roughly $8MM of Jay Bruce’s $12.5MM salary as part of the abandoned three-team trade that would’ve sent Bruce to the Blue Jays, Michael Saunders to the Angels and prospects to Cincinnati.  It was expected that the Reds would have to eat some money in any Bruce deal, given that the outfielder is coming off two consecutive subpar seasons.  Saunders is making $2.9MM in 2016, so adding Bruce would’ve cost Toronto around $1.6MM in extra salary (not counting the $1MM buyout of Bruce’s $13MM club option for 2017).
  • Like Lucroy, Bruce is also rather surprised to still be with his original team given all of the trade speculation.  He reiterated that he would prefer to stay with the Reds, and blames his recent “pretty poor” play for threatening his long-term future in Cincinnati.  (Though it could be argued that if Bruce had been hitting more, the Reds would’ve been able to move him sooner.)  “In order for me to have a chance to stay here, I need to play better.  We’ll see what happens.  I never changed my sentiment, wanting to be part of this for the long haul….But obviously, I have to do my part to even have a chance,” Bruce said.
  • Kyle Schwarber could be a personal catcher for Jason Hammel this season, CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney writes, as the Cubs are looking for ways to get Schwarber’s bat into the lineup whenever possible.  Schwarber’s defensive future has been the subject of much debate, as he’s scheduled to see most of his playing time in left field this year even though his fielding prowess is still a question mark.  It’s also unclear if Schwarber can handle being a regular catcher, though with Miguel Montero and David Ross ahead of him on Chicago’s catching depth chart, he could be eased into the position for just Hammel’s starts.  Being removed from too much grind behind the plate could actually benefit Schwarber, Mooney notes, by helping him stay healthy.
  • The Pirates hired James Harris as a special assistant to baseball operations in February, and Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review examines how the hiring is an example of how the Bucs are willing to look outside of baseball for ways to build their organization.  Harris specializes in fitness and nutrition techniques and he has spent much of his career in football, including the last decade working with Chip Kelly both at the University of Oregon and with the NFL’s Eagles.  Harris’ lack of baseball experience wasn’t a big factor for Pirates GM Neal Huntington, as the goal for any athlete is about “maximizing performance.  How do we help this player get better every day and perform as consistently as possible?“
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NL Central Notes: Cubs, Pirates, Brewers, Reds

By Zachary Links | March 22, 2016 at 8:30pm CDT

No team will fret over having too much in the way of talent, but Phil Rogers of MLB.com wonders if the Cubs’ depth could stifle the growth of Javier Baez and Jorge Soler.  In the case of Baez, manager Joe Maddon believes that he can get enough work in as a utility player.  Overall, Maddon is grateful to have such strong insurance against injuries.

“It’s obvious just by making the daily lineups now,” he said on Sunday. “When you give guys a day off playing but the team that goes to play that day is pretty thick still. That’s what has hit home with me. … The depth is really intriguing. You need that to be successful during the course of a long season. You’re going to have things happen. No question.”

Here’s more out of the NL Central:

  • Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette took on the tough task of predicting the Pirates’ Opening Day roster.  His projections do not include outfielder Matt Joyce, who was brought in on a minor-league deal this offseason.  Nesbitt’s writes that his projections could be thrown off by a few factors, including the possibility that Michael Morse is moved in anticipation of Jung Ho Kang’s return.
  • Brewers left-hander Sean Nolin won’t be ready for Opening Day and that could have roster implications for Milwaukee, as Tom Haudricourt of the Journal-Sentinel writes.  As Nolin deals with his elbow issue, only two lefties – Chris Capuano and Franklin Morales – are left vying for spots and both were brought in on minor league deals.  Those two southpaws plus reliever Blaine Boyer have opt out clauses in their contracts that could spring them from their deals before Opening Day.
  • Nolin is out-of-options, but his elbow issue likely will buy the Brewers time in making a decision on him, Haudricourt tweets.  Nolin is likely destined for the DL.
  • J.J. Hoover is likely to be the Reds’ closer and manager Bryan Price says he would “definitely” be the choice if the season started now, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes.  Hoover, who won his arbitration case against the Reds this offseason, could help his arb case next offseason if he can rack up saves.
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Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | March 18, 2016 at 7:00am CDT

Check out all the published entries in our Offseason in Review series here.

The Cubs added tons of veteran talent to an already-strong team, mostly through free agency.

Major League Signings

  • Jason Heyward, RF: eight years, $184MM.  Heyward can opt out after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019.  Includes deferred money.
  • Ben Zobrist, 2B: four years, $56MM
  • John Lackey, SP: two years, $32MM
  • Dexter Fowler, CF: one year, $13MM.  Includes $9MM mutual option for 2017 with a $5MM buyout.
  • Trevor Cahill, RP: one year, $4.25MM
  • Andury Acevedo, RP: one year, $700K.  Split contract, worth $200K in minors.
  • Total spend: $289.95MM.

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Aaron Crow, Stephen Fife, Brandon Gomes, Jean Machi, Edgar Olmos, Jack Leathersich, Manny Parra, Jonathan Pettibone, Tim Federowicz, Jesus Guzman, Munenori Kawasaki, Kristopher Negron, Matt Murton, Juan Perez, Shane Victorino

Trades And Claims

  • Claimed RP Ryan Cook off waivers from Red Sox (Cubs non-tendered Cook on December 2nd)
  • Claimed RP Jack Leathersich off waivers from Mets (Leathersich elected free agency and was signed to a minor league deal by the Cubs in December)
  • Acquired RP Spencer Patton from Rangers for 2B Frandy De La Rosa
  • Claimed RP Edgar Olmos off waivers from Mariners (Olmos claimed by Orioles from Cubs on December 10th, (claimed back by Cubs on December 23rd, outrighted by Cubs in February)
  • Acquired RP Rex Brothers from Rockies for P Wander Cabrera (Cubs released Brothers on March 10th)
  • Acquired P Adam Warren and IF Brendan Ryan from Yankees for 2B Starlin Castro (Cubs released Ryan on December 23rd)
  • Claimed RP C.J. Riefenhauser off waivers from Orioles
  • Acquired P Aaron Brooks from Athletics for OF/2B Chris Coghlan

Notable Losses

  • Starlin Castro, Chris Coghlan, Frandy De La Rosa, Wander Cabrera, Chris Denorfia, Jonathan Herrera, Dan Haren, Jason Motte, James Russell, Tsuyoshi Wada, Tommy Hunter, Fernando Rodney

Needs Addressed

Entering the offseason, it was no secret that the Cubs had a middle infield surplus with Addison Russell, Javier Baez, and Starlin Castro.  With four years and $38MM remaining on his contract, Castro was the most likely to go.  The Yankees were a natural match, having shown interest in Castro during the summer.  As Yankees GM Brian Cashman told John Harper of the New York Daily News, the Cubs initially asked for outfielder Brett Gardner and were rebuffed.  Then, after a month of the Cubs pestering Cashman for swingman Adam Warren, the Yankees gave in and the trade agreement was reached.  Still, the Castro trade was delayed for a few days, as the Cubs were simultaneously attempting to sign Ben Zobrist as a free agent.

The Cubs achieved Theo Epstein’s “multiple-bank shot,” moving on from Castro after six big league seasons.  I was surprised by the Cubs’ plan to move Castro to make room for a second baseman from outside the organization.  Instead of plugging Baez in at second base, the Cubs went with veteran Ben Zobrist, who turns 35 in May.  Zobrist served as Joe Maddon’s Swiss Army knife for six seasons after establishing himself in the Majors with the Rays.  While Zobrist may not be the defensive asset he once was, he’s still an excellent high-contact hitter and potential three-win player.  The Cubs should get good value with Zobrist at $14MM a year, despite the riskiness of signing a player through age 38.  He’s a clear improvement over Castro, and with the Yankees taking on Castro’s contract, two-thirds of Zobrist’s deal is covered.  The Cubs can rest assured that competition was stiff for Zobrist, with the Mets and Giants willing to go to $60MM and the Nationals making a play.

With the addition of Warren, the Cubs proved that Castro did indeed have mild positive trade value despite the middle infielder’s contract and up-and-down career.  In Warren, the Cubs received a useful pitcher who is under club control for three years.  The 28-year-old can serve as an effective reliever or credible fifth starter depending on the Cubs’ needs.

The Cubs’ primary offseason need was to add an impact starting pitcher.  Though Epstein later told WEEI the Cubs were “very interested” in the best available option, free agent David Price, the Cubs’ president also admitted, “We ended up a distant third” in the bidding.  Shortly after Price’s agreement with the Red Sox, the Cubs reached an agreement 37-year-old veteran starter John Lackey on a two-year deal.  Epstein had previously signed Lackey as Red Sox GM six years prior.  As Epstein explained in that same WEEI interview, “There’s risk inherent in longer pitching contracts, and having a pitcher the caliber of John Lackey on a two-year deal was a no-brainer for us.”  I thought Lackey would command a three-year deal even at his advanced age and with a qualifying offer attached, so plucking him from the Cardinals on a two-year term was a big win.

By the Winter Meetings, the Cubs had made significant improvements to an already-strong club, without surrendering prospects or adding a major financial burden (at least for a big-market team).  Soon, it became apparent the Cubs’ biggest move was yet to come.  They were again tangling with the Cardinals and Nationals for a free agent: Jason Heyward.  We’ll have more on the Heyward signing in the Deal Of Note section.

With the Cubs adding Zobrist, Lackey, and Heyward,  the rich got richer.  Heyward was penciled in at a new position, center field, since Dexter Fowler was expected to sign elsewhere as a free agent and the Cubs already had Jorge Soler as the right field incumbent.  It appears that the Cubs kicked around a lot of trade possibilities, likely involving Soler and Baez.  Meanwhile, the team quietly re-added Trevor Cahill on a one-year deal.  Cahill turned down a more definitive rotation offer from the Pirates to stay with the Cubs, even though he seems likely to begin the year in the bullpen.  Cahill’s contract calls for incentives both for starts and relief appearances.  The 28-year-old first joined the Cubs in August on a minor league deal.  He pitched for the big league club in September and after a dominant month out of the pen became a key late-inning reliever in the playoffs.  The signing gives the Cubs four potential swingmen, along with Warren, Clayton Richard, and Travis Wood.

As February came to a close, the Cubs’ offseason seemed to have reached a successful conclusion, as they were down to tinkering with free agents on minor league deals.  Then, in the course of a few hours, Epstein stunningly completed another multiple-bank shot.  First, news broke that outfielder Chris Coghlan, whose presence on the Cubs’ roster was already somewhat redundant, had been traded to Oakland for Aaron Brooks.  This trade seemed mostly about clearing Coghlan’s $4.8MM salary.  Coghlan, a free agent after 2016, raked right-handed pitching with a .277/.354/.478 line from 2014-15.  Brooks, meanwhile, will soon turn 26 and has yet to experience big league success.  He’s got an interesting change-up and could develop into a useful pitcher, but it was a light return for Coghlan.

Shortly after the Coghlan trade, the Cubs announced that center fielder Dexter Fowler had re-signed on a one-year deal.  Although media reports suggested Fowler had a multiyear agreement in place with the Orioles, Fowler, his agent, and Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette later said that was never the case.  Instead, Fowler’s talks with the Orioles fell apart when they wouldn’t give him an opt-out clause, and the Cubs swooped in with a low-risk one-year deal.  While it’s true the Cubs sacrificed another potential draft pick, Fowler basically fell into their laps.  Heyward is now penciled in at his natural right field position, Fowler returns in center, and the Cubs have a pair of highly-regarded young players in Soler and Kyle Schwarber in left field.

Continued analysis after the break …

Read more

Questions Remaining

In Soler and Baez, the Cubs have a pair of big league ready, highly-regarded early-20s players without starting roles.  This is generally a good problem to have.  Still, each player would ideally be getting regular playing time, and the Cubs’ acquisitions at least imply uncertainty in the pair.  So far, the Cubs have taken the safe route with Soler and Baez, holding onto them and hoping their value either increases or stays the same.  Without knowing the trade offers that came in this winter, it’s difficult to assess that decision.  Most likely, the depth will be necessary, as the Cubs can mitigate the damage of injuries to their starters better than most teams.  Of course, Soler and Baez may still be traded anytime between now and August 1st.

By the playoffs, the Cubs had assembled a strong bullpen, which included resurgent veterans like Cahill and Richard.  The club could have issues if those resurgences don’t carry over, as Warren was the only real offseason addition.  Though the Cubs have Wood and Richard from the left side, it seems that left-handed relief was an area of focus for them given the minor additions of Rex Brothers (since released), C.J. Riefenhauser, Edgar Olmos, Jack Leathersich, and Manny Parra.

Did the Cubs do enough to improve their rotation?  Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, and Kyle Hendricks remain in place, and on paper Lackey definitely makes the rotation better.  The biggest concern is regression or injury for Arrieta, who tallied nearly 250 innings in 2015.  The Cubs have a slew of swingmen to step in if someone gets hurt, but it’s still true that the front office chose to allocate most of their free agent budget to add to a strength, position players.  Given the Cubs’ trade chips and this offseason’s unprecedented free agent starting pitching, it was surprising to see the Cubs only come away with Lackey.

The Cubs were unable to reach a long-term agreement with Arrieta, instead avoiding arbitration with a one-year,  $10.7MM deal.  Arrieta is due another potentially large raise for the 2017 season, after which he’ll be eligible for free agency.  I think the fact that the Cubs did not add a $20MM+ starting pitcher leaves the door open for an Arrieta extension, even if agent Scott Boras strongly prefers to take his clients to the open market.  In October, I suggested Arrieta’s salary expectations covering his free agent years would likely match that of Zack Greinke, and then Greinke signed an unprecedented six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks.  That would be on top of Arrieta’s 2017 salary.  Arrieta just won the Cy Young award with a season for the ages.  Can his price really get any higher if the Cubs wait another year, or even two?  In general, do the Cubs want a Greinke-like contract on the books?  Arrieta’s contract status will be an ongoing question mark for Epstein and company.

Speaking of Epstein, the Cubs’ chief architect is signed only through 2016.  Based on public comments from Epstein and Cubs owner Tom Ricketts, a new contract seems inevitable.  Comments Ricketts made to Bruce Levine of CBSChicago.com indicate that a new deal for Epstein is likely to once again make him baseball’s highest-paid executive.  With Andrew Friedman earning $7MM a year with the Dodgers, I wonder if Epstein’s new contract will push a $10MM salary.

Deal Of Note

Feb 29, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward poses for a portrait during photo day at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I was surprised to see the Cubs aggressively pursuing Jason Heyward, because right field didn’t seem like a primary need for the club.  Nonetheless, they signed the offseason’s best position player to an eight-year deal guaranteeing $184MM.  The Cubs also stoked a longtime rivalry, as the Cardinals tried to retain Heyward.  Crucially, Heyward can opt out of his deal with the Cubs after three years.  If he doesn’t opt out after that 2018 season, and then picks up 550 plate appearances in 2019, he has another chance to opt out.  As Matt Swartz explained in a January article for MLBTR, it’s not likely Heyward opts out after 2019 if he doesn’t after 2018.  Swartz values Heyward’s opt-out clauses at about $25MM, so the Cubs were able to reduce the guarantee to Heyward by about 12% by taking on downside risk.

Including an opt-out clause was a prerequisite to signing Heyward, who was an unusually young free agent at 26 years old.  Now that the Cubs have Heyward and this contract, they have to hope he does opt out after 2018, making this a three-year, $78MM deal.  If Heyward’s 2018 season is good enough to compel him to opt out (to which Swartz assigns a 50% likelihood), then it likely means the Cubs got more than their money’s worth.  If the momentum does begin to swing clearly toward Heyward opting out after 2018, the Cubs will be presented with another Arrieta-like situation.  They’ll have already gotten surplus value and will have to decide whether to re-up with the player at market price.

Overview

This is the Cubs team fans expected Epstein to eventually build, when he was hired in the fall of 2011.  The team is overflowing with controllable position player talent for the long-term, supplemented by big-market style free agent signings.  Though they didn’t reach the World Series, the 2015 Cubs had the Cy Young winner, Rookie of the Year winner, and Manager of the Year.  Based on FanGraphs’ projected standings, the Cubs are the preseason favorite, and no other team is close.  On paper, the Cubs are a popular World Series pick.

The problem with such high expectations for any team is that “the field” still has much better odds of having the World Series winner.  Mostly, preseason favorites that fall short are done in by injuries, and the Cubs are just as susceptible as any team.  After four years, the Theo Epstein front office has stacked the odds nearly as far in the Cubs’ favor as possible, but it won’t mean anything until the franchise gets the championship monkey off its back.

So, how would you grade the Cubs’ winter moves? (Poll link for app users … )

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NL Central Notes: Dunnington, Brewers, Contreras, Nicasio

By Steve Adams | March 16, 2016 at 10:49pm CDT

Former Cardinals minor leaguer Tyler Dunnington, who retired from the game during Spring Training 2015, tells Cyd Zeigler of Outsports.com that he chose to leave the game due to homophobic comments and clubhouse culture that made him “miserable in a sport that used to give him life.” Dunnington, who kept his sexual orientation private throughout his baseball career but has come out since retiring, explained that a college coach made a detestable joke about the 1998 murder of Matthew Shepard, and such talk didn’t dissipate upon his arrival in pro ball. A minor league teammate mentioned having a gay brother, and a pair of teammates questioned, in earnest, how anyone could have a homosexual friend, let alone brother. Some went so far as to discuss killing homosexuals, Zeigler writes. The inexcusable behavior isn’t lost on GM John Mozeliak, who told the Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold and Ben Frederickson: “This is very disappointing and our hope is that every player, staff member, and employee feels they are treated equally and fairly. Given the nature of these allegations I will certainly look into this further as well as speak with [MLB Ambassador for Inclusion Billy Bean] for further assistance on this matter…we will take this very seriously.”

Dunnington hopes to return to the game in a front office role, where he could help to take measures to prevent this type of culture and behavior. “After gaining acceptance from my friends and family I realized I didn’t have to quit baseball to find happiness,” Dunnington said. “I not only wanted to share my story but also apologize for not using the stage I had to help change the game.” Indeed, disturbing as Dunnington’s stories are, the sad reality is that the appalling comments he encountered are almost certainly not unique to the clubhouse he was in nor to the Cardinals organization.

Looking elsewhere in the division…

  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that the Brewers won’t name a closer before Opening Day. Manager Craig Counsell asserted that there’s “no such position as Opening Day closer” and said that left-hander Will Smith and right-hander Jeremy Jeffress will both get cracks at closing games early in the season. Counsell feels that it will behoove the Brewers to take advantage of having two quality late-inning relievers — one right-handed (Jeffress) and one left-handed (Smith) — to create the most advantageous matchups possible in attempting to lock down close victories. Counsell said the ninth inning could “eventually” belong to one pitcher, but he sees no reason to place any sort of restriction on either reliever right now.
  • Cubs prospect Willson Contreras looks more and more like the team’s long-term answer behind the plate with every passing day, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Wittenmyer spoke to catching coach Mike Borzello, manager Joe Maddon and infielder Javier Baez, each of whom raved about some combination of Contreras’ throwing, handling of the pitching staff and above-average bat. Borzello noted that Contreras would probably break camp with a club that had less catching depth than Chicago currently has with Miguel Montero, David Ross and Kyle Schwarber. Contreras’ emergence further calls into question Schwarber’s future behind the plate, as if Contreras is the two-way backstop that many in the organization believe him to be, there’s less of a reason to continue to try to develop Schwarber as a catcher, where many scouts believe he is inadequate from a defensive standpoint.
  • While Spring Training stats are always taken with a grain of salt, a dominant outing from Pirates right-hander Juan Nicasio turned some heads today, writes ESPN’s Jayson Stark. “Dominant,” in fact, is selling the appearance short; Nicasio faced 14 hitters and allowed just one hit and recorded an incredible 10 strikeouts on Wednesday. Despite facing a strikeout-prone Orioles lineup, Nicasio caught the eye of manager Clint Hurdle, who says that his own experience managing at Coors Field made it easy to look past Nicasio’s lackluster career numbers when the Pirates added him on a one-year, $3MM deal this winter. Nicasio was originally signed to be a multi-inning reliever, but in light of his spring dominance, Hurdle wouldn’t rule out a rotation spot. Nicasio tells Stark that’s his ultimate goal: “I’m working hard for the rotation, but I can’t control all that.” As Stark writes, a well-known Pirates success story, Francisco Liriano, called Nicasio this offseason to sell him on the benefit of pitching coach Ray Searage. “Everybody talks about, ’You go here, you get better,'” Nicasio says to Stark. “I know why now.”
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Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Jeremy Jeffress Juan Nicasio Will Smith Willson Contreras

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NL Central Notes: Freese, Votto, Murton, Brewers

By Steve Adams | March 12, 2016 at 10:45am CDT

Newly signed Pirates infielder David Freese was “hungry” to join the organization, GM Neal Huntington told Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Freese spoke with Nesbitt as well, explaining that the organization’s recent surge and track record of making the postseason appealed to him when the Bucs approached. Freese added that it’s been interesting to watch the club’s rise to prominence, having seen the early stages as a member of the Cardinals. “We came to Pittsburgh early on in [2011], and then we showed up two or three months later and it was sold out,” said Freese. “I think that’s kinda when things started to change a little bit. That was an atmosphere I wanted to be a part of. To see where this organization has come the last four or five years, that’s special.” Nesbitt notes that the plan for Freese is for him to play third base while Jung Ho Kang is out for the first month of the season, and he’ll then shift across the diamond and platoon with John Jaso.

More from the NL Central…

  • The Reds have no intention of moving Joey Votto as part of their rebuild, GM Dick Williams tells MLB.com’s Barry Bloom. “Joey’s the cornerstone of our lineup right now, and [he] will be in the future,” said Williams when asked about the possibility of trading Votto. “I think the contract we have him signed to is very reasonable for a small-market team, making that kind of commitment. The way salaries have gone, it looks like a very reasonable and fair contract. … I wouldn’t say ’never,’ but having Joey in the middle of the lineup is pretty special.” Votto has eight years and $199MM remaining on his 10-year, $225MM extension. That deal also included a full no-trade clause, so the possibility of trading Votto isn’t entirely in the club’s hands anyway.
  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick interviews Cubs non-roster invitee Matt Murton, who returned to the team this winter on a minor league deal after six successful seasons with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Murton, who missed the first two weeks of camp recovering from an appendectomy, discusses his time in Japan and explains that he initially expected to spend just one season overseas. As Crasnick notes, though, Murton’s success led him to be one of the league’s highest-paid players, earning a bit shy of $4MM at his peak. Though that’s a relatively small sum in today’s Major League landscape, it’s significantly more than he’d earn even if he were to make the Majors. That might’ve made it tempting to stay, but Murton still has big league aspirations. “I reached a point where if I stayed there too much longer, this window was going to close,” he tells Crasnick. “My goal right now is living in the moment, competing today. I really do think I have something left. I think I can be an asset. But that’s all talk. I’ve got to get out there and do it.”
  • Brewers manager Craig Counsell chatted with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt about two of the young players they acquired in offseason trades — Jacob Nottingham and Keon Broxton. While some have questioned whether Nottingham can stick behind the plate, Counsell emphatically voiced that there is “no question” in the minds of the Brewers that Nottingham is a catcher in the long haul. He also offered high praise for the 25-year-old Broxton, who could be the early favorite to play center field for the club.
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Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates David Freese Joey Votto Keon Broxton Matt Murton

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