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Trading Carlos Zambrano

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Carlos Zambrano signed a five-year, $91.5MM extension with the Cubs in August of 2007.  At the time, I had mixed feelings – the Cubs received a discount in the number of years, but still committed a big salary to a pitcher whose best years were behind him.  Talking to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, Cubs GM Jim Hendry defended the contract yesterday:

"There was nothing wrong with the investment.  This guy was an outstanding pitcher in the National League, in the game, for the four or five years before that. And there's no question that the deal was a solid one in the industry. He certainly would have been one of the hotter tickets on the street if that thing went to the end of the season."

Wittenmyer says the Cubs now have an "obvious desire" to unload Zambrano and his remaining $45.4MM.  You may recall that the Cubs had a similar obvious desire with Milton Bradley last winter, and they eventually found a match.  Hendry may find trading Zambrano a bigger challenge.  For the moment, we'll toss aside Z's full no-trade clause. 

  • Carlos Lee is owed $46.85MM through 2012, his contract matches up quite well with Zambrano's.  However, the Cubs don't need an outfielder and Lee has a full no-trade clause this year.  It's impossible to imagine Lee and Alfonso Soriano in the same outfield, even though the Cubs liked Lee in the past.
  • Aaron Rowand and Edgar Renteria are owed a total of $35.7MM.  The Giants would be adding $9.7MM in salary, though that's not a bad price for Zambrano over the next few years.  But as far as team needs, this makes little sense for either side.
  • Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo are owed a total of $27.6MM.  The Mets would be taking on nearly $18MM to own Zambrano through '12 and finally ditch this pair of bad contracts.
  • Any deal with the Braves would have to involve Derek Lowe, who is owed $38MM through 2012.  I don't see why the Braves would want to make the switch.
  • The Indians could match the Cubs' Zambrano commitment almost perfectly with Travis Hafner, Kerry Wood, and Jake Westbrook.  It seems pointless, though, and Hafner isn't able to play first base.
  • The Royals' three bad contracts – Gil Meche, Jose Guillen, and Kyle Farnsworth - have $27.7MM remaining.  It's a poor match, though ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that the Royals are pushing to move Guillen and will eat a lot of dollars.
  • One last idea, perhaps the craziest yet.  The Yankees owe A.J. Burnett $58.3MM through 2013.  Burnett isn't faring well in the second year of his deal, and the Cubs would be taking on almost $13MM to make the swap.  The Cubs would assume less than $6MM if they included Derrek Lee, though.
  • As you can see, I failed to find a reasonable Zambrano trade scenario involving other overpaid players.  Feel free to speculate in the comments.

Mets’ Targets Include Cliff Lee, Ted Lilly

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The Mets will be in on Seattle ace Cliff Lee – that appears certain.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Omar Minaya has notified Jack Zduriencik of his interest, and the Mets are scouting Lee's starts.

Contrary to a Kevin Burkhardt report last night, Sherman says the Mets "would not need a negotiating window to sign Lee long-term even if it includes top prospect Jenrry Mejia in a package."  However, between the injuries to potential trade chips Mejia and Angel Pagan and the ownership approval needed to pull the trigger, Minaya faces hurdles in acquiring Lee.

Sherman writes "the Mets have little interest" in Roy Oswalt and Fausto Carmona.  Instead, Cubs southpaw Ted Lilly might head up their list of Lee alternatives.  Lilly has been excellent since signing a four-year, $40MM deal with the Cubs in December of '06.  The contract has about $6.4MM remaining.  Though Lilly profiles as a Type A free agent after the season, an arbitration offer is in question.  I doubt Lilly's limited no-trade provision will be an obstacle, as he's probably eager to return to the playoffs.  The Cubs have about a month to decide whether to cash in their chips, and Lilly is their best one. 

Odds & Ends: Branyan, Orioles, D’Backs, Marlins

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Links for Sunday..

Olney’s Latest: Giants, Zambrano, Fielder, Orioles

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In today's Insider-only blog entry, ESPN.com's Buster Olney ranks baseball's most irreplaceable players, with Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez heading his list. Here are a few other highlights from the column:

  • Responding to Henry Schulman's San Francisco Chronicle piece about the Giants' need for bullpen help, Olney identifies two roadblocks. According to general managers, the relief market is "very, very thin." On top of that, a group of GMs polled by Olney named Brian Sabean as the most difficult GM to trade with.
  • The Cubs have tried to deal with Carlos Zambrano's past outbursts because of his talent and his $91.5MM contract. After the latest blow-up though, it appears the club has run out of patience. According to Olney, there's "an overriding perception within the organization" that Zambrano hasn't cared about living up to his end of the deal.
  • Given the non-existent extension negotiations between Prince Fielder and the Brewers, Olney says the team has two options: trade Fielder and receive a lesser return than fans would expect, or keep the 26-year-old and try to re-sign him after 2011.
  • Buck Showalter had a very good interview with the Orioles, who will also interview Eric Wedge this week (Twitter link).

Odds & Ends: Patterson, Marlins, League, Zambrano

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Some Saturday links as the Red Sox suffer their latest injury, this one involving Clay Buchholz and running the bases…

Rosenthal’s Full Count: Zambrano, Angels, Brewers

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Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com has a new Full Count video up, so let's dive in…

  • The fact that Carlos Zambrano is a 29-year-old pitcher still capable of winning 12-15 games a year should be enough to allow the Cubs to trade him, but of course the team will have to a eat a large chunk of the $45MM left on his deal. Rosenthal reminds us that the Cubbies came ahead financially when they moved Milton Bradley this winter.
  • The Angels still want to add a first baseman, and Adam Dunn is on their list of potential targets. If they do make a move for Dunn or perhaps Adam LaRoche, incumbent first baseman Mike Napoli could become trade bait. 
  • The Nationals have yet to get serious in any discussions about a contract extension with Dunn. 
  • The Brewers are still searching for pitching, and the Blue Jays could be a potential match. Toronto likes Double-A infielder (and Canadian) Brett Lawrie, but the Brewers would be reluctant to trade him. They would have to consider it if he could land them someone like Brett Cecil or Shaun Marcum, though.
  • Arizona will probably not want to keep both Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson since they combine to make over $20MM next year, but Haren's value isn't what it once was. One baseball person told Rosenthal that "[Haren]'s not at the top of anyone's list, he's just another name."

Olney’s Latest: Zambrano, Starting Pitchers, Indians

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In today's blog post at ESPN (Insider req'd), Buster Olney writes about how Diamondbacks' manager A.J. Hinch went against the grain by leaving Edwin Jackson in to throw 149 pitches as he no-hit the Rays last night. One unnamed manager blamed the media for the pitch count craze, but I want to add that much of it has to do with teams protecting investments. With the rise of salaries throughout the game even from just ten years ago, teams don't want to unnecessarily put a pitcher in the line of danger, so to speak. 

Here are the rest of Olney's rumors…

  • The Cubs may wish they could get rid of Carlos Zambrano following his latest tirade, but Olney points out that there's still $45MM left on his contract. Chicago would have to eat a huge chunk of that money to unload him.
  • The trade market doesn't figure to be very robust this summer because there just isn't a lot of money available around the league. The starting pitching market probably won't budge until Cliff Lee is dealt, at which point second tier fodder like Ben Sheets and Kevin Millwood would draw more attention.
  • The Indians' two most marketable players are Austin Kearns and Russell Branyan because neither is making big money. Kearns is owed approximately $417K the rest of the season, Branyan $1.11MM, and both will become free agents as season's end.

Remembering the 1993 Trade Deadline

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Baseball's 1993 season, with a potential strike looming, was an interesting year. And the trade deadline produced deals involving some of baseball's biggest names.

  • On June 24, the Marlins traded Andres Berumen, Jose Martinez and a young reliever named Trevor Hoffman to the Padres for Rich Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield. Sheffield was just 24, and the Marlins quickly realized that he was more at home in the outfield than at third base. Sheffield managed an OPS+ of 162 over his next four seasons, before being purged by the Marlins, who traded him in the 1998 Mike Piazza deal, then turned around and traded Piazza to the Mets for prospects. And Hoffman? 16 seasons in San Diego, 552 saves and an ERA+ of 146.
  • Less than a month later, the Atlanta Braves added a signature piece to their roster, trading Vince Moore, Donnie Elliott and Melvin Nieves to the Padres for Fred McGriff. The Braves got immediate payoff from the deal. McGriff, who had posted a .275/.361/.497 line in San Diego, went on a .310/.392/.612 tear with Atlanta. He hit 130 home runs over five seasons with the Braves. This is a classic trade deadline pickup.
  • Still more activity came from the Padres, who, it must be noted, finished just 61-101 in 1993. On July 26, San Diego traded Greg Harris and Bruce Hurst to the Colorado Rockies for Brad Ausmus, Doug Bochtler and a player to be named later. Harris reached his sell-by date the day he was traded, going from a 3.67 ERA with San Diego to a 1-8, 6.50 ERA finish in Colorado. Hurst pitched 8.2 innings of 5.19 ERA ball before going down due to injury. And worst of all? The player to be named later sent to San Diego turned out to be… Andy Ashby, who pitched eight seasons of 113 ERA+ baseball for the Padres. Not a good day one mile above sea level.
  • Under the radar a bit was a three-team deal that must be mentioned. The Royals got John Habyan. The Yankees got Paul Assenmacher, saving the clubhouse manager a ton of time by not having uniform names on their players' backs. And the Cubs got outfielder Tuffy Rhodes. While Habyan and Assenmacher continued to do what they tended to do for everyone else- put up decent ERAs out of the bullpen- Rhodes was a revelation, hitting .288/.413/.538 in 63 plate appearances. Then, on Opening Day 1994, he hit three home runs against the Mets! Surely, stardom would follow. Instead, he hit .234/.318/.387, and was playing in Japan by 1996. He starred there, of course, with seven seasons of 40 or more home runs, including a high of 55.
  • The final bit of trade deadline drama came with the best leadoff hitter of all time. The Oakland Athletics sent Rickey Henderson to the Toronto Blue Jays for elite pitching prospect Steve Karsay and outfield prospect Jose Herrera. Amazingly, Henderson was a total bust for Toronto. He hit .215/.356/.319 after the trade, .327/.469/.553 before the trade. But Karsay could never stay healthy for long, and Herrera didn't do much in two big league seasons.

Odds & Ends: Bumgarner, Tracy, Oswalt, Atkins

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Links for Friday night, as Edwin Jackson tosses a 149-pitch no-hitter against his former team….

Odds & Ends: Fukudome, Kemp, Lowell, Harang

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Links for Friday, as the Rangers keep streaking…

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