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Cubs Outright Three Players

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The Cubs have assigned right-handers Jeremiah Estrada and Nick Burdi as well as infielder Jared Young outright to the minor leagues, reports Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. Burdi has the requisite service time to reject the assignment and elect free agency, while Estrada and Young will have the opportunity to enter minor league free agency later this month unless added back to the 40-man roster. The club’s 40-man roster now stands at 37.

Estrada, who celebrated his 25th birthday yesterday, was a sixth-round pick by Chicago in the 2017 draft. Estrada dealt with elbow troubles early in his career before being hospitalized with COVID-19 in August 2021, leaving him with just 40 professional innings prior to the 2022 campaign. Estrada’s rise in 2022 was impressive, however, as he posted a 1.30 ERA while striking out 40.4% of batters faced in 48 1/3 innings of work across three levels of the minors that year. The reliever’s exceptional minor league numbers earned him a brief cup of coffee with the big league club last season, during which he posted a solid 3.18 ERA and a 4.17 FIP over 5 2/3 innings of work.

Estrada’s strong 2022 earned him a longer audition as a member of the Chicago bullpen this season, though his stint in the majors did not go well with a 6.75 ERA and a 9.07 FIP as he walked a whopping 12 batters in 10 2/3 innings of work across 12 appearances. His minor league numbers also suffered, with a 5.97 ERA in 28 2/3 Triple-A innings of work, though he still struck out 31.5% of batters faced at the level this season. In the event Estrada hits free agency, he figures to be an attractive candidate for a minor league deal to clubs interested in adding relief depth thanks to his youth and big strikeout numbers in the minor leagues.

Burdi, 30, was a second-round pick by the Twins in the 2014 draft and eventually made his big league debut with the Pirates in 2018. He managed just 16 appearances from 2018-20 due to injuries, posting a 9.49 ERA along the way. Ugly as his run prevention numbers were, he struck out 38.3% of batters faced over that time. Burdi did not pitch in 2021 or 2022 due to injuries, but joined the Cubs through the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft last offseason. Unfortunately, Burdi managed just three innings of work before once again hitting the injured list, this time due to appendicitis. Overall, Burdi sports a career 9.39 ERA in 15 1/3 major league innings.

Young, 28, was a 15th-round pick by the Cubs in the 2017 draft and first made his major league debut in a six-game cup of coffee last year, slashing .263/.364/.368 in his 22 trips to the plate in the majors. That slash line more or less reflected his numbers at Triple-A that year, where he posted a .230/.311/.420 slash line in 109 games. Young returned to the Cubs at the Triple-A level and took a step forward with the bat, crushing the ball to the tune of a .310/.417/.577 slash line with 21 home runs in just 90 games. Unfortunately, that success did not translate to the big league level, where he hit just .186/.255/.465 across sixteen games. Nonetheless, Young could be an attractive candidate for teams on a minor league deal this offseason due to his strong Triple-A numbers and ability to play capable defense at all four corners.

Coaching Notes: Mallee, Rays, Giants, Cora

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The Cubs are promoting John Mallee back to the big league staff, as reported by Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. It’s currently unclear what role the long-time coach will serve. He was the team’s hitting coach from 2015-17, but that job is currently held down by Dustin Kelly, who helped several players thrive in his first year with the big league squad. 

According to Sharma and Mooney, the Cubs will “incorporate Mallee’s experience and expertise” in a new role, rather than replace anyone currently on the coaching staff. He was the hitting coach at Triple-A Iowa in 2023, and he earned “rave reviews” for his work at the minor league level. Evidently, the Cubs have decided he can have a greater impact with the MLB club, even in a less defined role.

In other coaching news from around the league…

  • In addition to hiring a new first base coach, the Rays could look to hire a couple of additional coaches to replace Jonathan Erlichman, the former process and analytics coach, and Dan DeMent, the former assistant hitting coach (per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Erlichman has taken on a new role with the team, while DeMent has parted ways with the organization after 13 years as a minor league coach and two with the big league club. The Rays have another assistant hitting coach, Brady North, and with Erlichman remaining in the organization, they don’t necessarily need to hire a direct replacement for either Erlichman or DeMent. As Topkin notes, the Rays could look to add a couple of coaches in new roles instead.
  • On Monday, Susan Slusser of the San Franciso Chronicle discussed the Giants’ director of pitching role, which has been vacant since the White Sox hired away Brian Bannister to be their senior pitching advisor. She suggests Bryan Price, a long-time pitching coach and former Reds manager, to fill the role. Price is currently employed as a senior advisor to the coaching staff in San Diego, but it’s not out of the question he could come over to San Francisco alongside Bob Melvin, Matt Williams, and Ryan Christenson. Price spent 14 years as a pitching coach for the Mariners, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Phillies. He announced his retirement as a pitching coach after the 2020 season, but a director of pitching job could represent an intriguing new opportunity for the veteran coach.
  • Joey Cora, the Mets’ third base coach in 2022 and ’23, has drawn interest for several coaching positions around the league, per Andy Martino of SNY. Cora, the elder brother of Red Sox manager Alex Cora, has been coaching since 2004. His contract with the Mets expired at the end of October. In further Mets news, Martino notes that first base coach Wayne Kirby’s contract has also expired. Evidently, the team saw no reason to retain all of their coaches without a new manager in place.

Mets Interview Carlos Mendoza, Andy Green In Managerial Search

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The Mets have interviewed Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza for their managerial vacancy, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. SNY’s Andy Martino indicates that Mendoza is actually in the midst of a second-round interview today after interviewing for the first time last week and receiving a callback. Sherman also reports that the club has interviewed Cubs bench coach Andy Green, though it’s unclear if that’s a first or second interview.

Mendoza, 43, spent 13 seasons as a minor league player before joining the Yankees’ minor league coaching staff in 2009. He joined the big league coaching staff as an infield coach in 2017 before being promoted to bench coach following the 2019 season. Green, on the other hand, participated in parts of four big league seasons during his playing career, including the 2009 season as a member of the Mets. Since retiring, Green served briefly as third base coach of the Diamondbacks before being hired to manage the Padres prior to the 2016 season. Green managed in San Diego for four seasons before joining the Cubs’ coaching staff as bench coach prior to the 2020 campaign.

The pair have drawn interest from other clubs for managerial vacancies, as well. After drawing occasional managerial interest in recent years, Mendoza was among the likeliest candidates to take over for Gabe Kapler as manager of the Giants prior to the club securing permission to interview Bob Melvin. In addition, both coaches have been interviewed by the Guardians. If hired in Cleveland, either coach would step into the shoes of longtime manager Terry Francona following his recent retirement.

Should Mendoza depart the Bronx for another club this offseason, Martino notes that the Yankees could look to promote third base coach Luis Rojas, himself a former Mets manager, to the position. Though Rojas’s contract with the Yankees is up this offseason, Martino makes clear the the club has interest in retaining him, either as bench coach or in his current role as third base coach. It’s not yet clear what direction the Cubs could go in if they wind up needing to replace Green. Chicago already lost a key member of the club’s staff this offseason when Craig Breslow departed the Cubs’ front office to take the vacant GM role in Boston.

That the Mets are moving on to a second interview with Mendoza suggests that the club’s interest in his services next year is strong, though Sherman still refers to Brewers manager Craig Counsell as the “favorite” for the Mets job. Of course, Counsell has plenty of options beyond New York that could complicate the club’s pursuit of his services; Counsell has received interest from the Astros, the Brewers hope to retain him in Milwaukee on a new contract, and he’s already interviewed with the Guardians. Curiously, while MLB Network’s Jon Morosi has indicated that Counsell and the Mets have discussed the club’s managerial vacancy, Martino makes clear that Counsell has not had a formal interview with Mets brass to this point.

With the Mets apparently advancing to a second round of interviews for other candidates before sitting down with Counsell for a first interview it’s possible, speculatively speaking, that the club hopes to move through the interview process with other candidates so that they can act quickly upon Counsell’s decision regarding where he will manage in 2024. If that’s the case, it’s unclear what other candidates could be in the mix beyond Mendoza and Green, as details regarding the managerial search in New York have been few and far between this offseason. While Rangers associate manager Will Venable reportedly declined to interview for the position last month, Mendoza, Green, and Counsell are the only publicly known candidates for the position at this point.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

Central Notes: Bellinger, Counsell, Tigers

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Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger figures to be perhaps the top positional free agent this side of Shohei Ohtani during the coming offseason, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma discussed his upcoming free agency with various scouts this morning. Bellinger’s 2023 campaign saw him slash a strong .307/.356/.525, pairing 26 home runs and a minuscule 15.6% strikeout rate with quality defense both in center field and at first base as well as 20 stolen bases. The bounce back campaign comes on the heels of what had been a brutal pair of seasons for Bellinger; the 2019 NL MVP managed a line of just .193/.256/.355 in 900 trips to the plate in 2021 and 2022, production that left him 31% worse than league average by measure of wRC+.

Bellinger’s struggles led the Dodgers to non-tender him this past offseason, leading him to sign with the Cubs for the 2023 campaign. As brutal as those struggles were, Sharma relays that the scouts he spoke to were unconcerned about Bellinger regressing to the below-average form he showed the past two seasons. While Sharma notes that the scouts suggested that Bellinger’s performance this year likely included some good fortune, casting doubt on his ability to replicate the 134 wRC+ campaign he had this season, he still figures to be an above-average contributor over the next few years, with one scout suggesting a 115-120 wRC+ is a realistic expectation for Bellinger in 2024 and beyond.

What’s more, Sharma relays that the Cubs expect Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, to be patient in their pursuit of the best contract available this winter. Sharma suggests that the Cubs are “preparing for [Boras] to take Bellinger’s negotiations deep into the offseason” as they maintain interest in resigning him, with the negotiations expected to last into the new year barring “an outlandish deal.” Chicago’s pursuit of Bellinger figures to be a key piece of the club’s offseason on the heels of a 2023 season that saw the Cubs post a surprisingly competitive 83-79 record, finishing just one game out of an NL Wild Card spot. That success came in large part thanks to Bellinger, who was the strongest offensive contributor to the club in 2023. Though top center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is waiting in the wings to take over up the middle, that would likely represent a significant drop in offensive output for the Cubs in 2024.

More from around MLB’s Central divisons…

  • Brewers manager Craig Counsell, who is set to become a free agent on November 1, is currently meeting with the Guardians in Cleveland to discuss the club’s managerial opening (as reported by Zack Meisel and Will Sammon of The Athletic). Though the sides ultimately coming together on a deal is considered to be something of a long-shot, the Guardians are accustomed to spending more on their manager than the typical small-market club, as recently-retired Cleveland skipper Terry Francona was reportedly the highest-paid manager in baseball last season. Counsell, 53, is among the most well-regarded managers in the game and figures to be highly sought after during his free agency, with the Mets known to have interest in his services in addition to the Guardians and Brewers. Per SNY’s Andy Martino, Counsell’s meeting with the Guardians today marks his first official interview this offseason.
  • The Tigers found a major success story on the waiver wire back during Spring Training in left-hander Tyler Holton, who pitched to a sterling 2.11 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 85 innings of work for Detroit this season. As discussed by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Holton stands out as a prime example of the benefits of president of baseball operations Scott Harris’s frequent use of the waiver wire; as Petzold notes, the Tigers have made 17 waiver claims since Harris took the reins of Detroit’s front office in September 2022. In addition to the savvy waiver claim, Petzold notes that Detroit’s pitching infrastructure helped Holton develop a slider early in the 2023 campaign that proved to be perhaps his most effective pitch. Hitter batted just .135 against the slider this year with a minuscule .153 wOBA, per Statcast.

Cubs Reportedly Interested In Juan Soto

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The Cubs are reportedly among the teams that have interest in dealing for Padres superstar Juan Soto this offseason, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, who reports that Chicago will be “involved” in Soto’s market. It’s the second report this week to suggest a potential trade partner for the Padres in a Soto deal, as earlier reporting indicated that the Yankees have checked in with the Padres regarding Soto’s availability.

Reports have indicated that the Padres will look to cut payroll this offseason by as much as $50MM. With key pieces of the club’s pitching staff like Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Seth Lugo likely ticketed for free agency this winter, that leaves the club minimal room to either re-sign or replace those arms as they look to bounce back from a difficult 2023 campaign that saw them miss the postseason with an 82-80 record. A trade of Soto, who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to receive $33MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, would free up plenty of budget space for the Padres this offseason while also providing an influx of young talent that could impact the club in 2024 and beyond.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are coming off a relatively surprising season that saw them exceed expectations. Rather than the expected sell-off that would have seen them deal Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger, the Cubs picked up third baseman Jeimer Candelario and reliever Jose Cuas at the trade deadline and entered September in good shape to return to the postseason in a full campaign for the first time since 2018. Unfortunately, the club collapsed down the stretch with a 7-15 record over their final 22 games. Ultimately, the club finished with an 83-79 record, just one game back of the Diamondbacks and Marlins in the NL Wild Card race.

With Bellinger set to hit free agency this offseason, replacing the outfielders 134 wRC+ and 4.1 fWAR figures to be a key focus of the offseason in Chicago. Soto, who slashed .275/.410/.519 with a 155 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR in characteristically excellent 2023 campaign, would certainly fill the gap in the club’s offense left by Bellinger’s impending departure. That being said, Soto’s fit in Chicago is imperfect. Most notably, the club has both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked up to patrol the outfield corners through the 2026 campaign, complicating Soto’s positional fit on the team. While Happ has plenty of experience in center field, he made no appearances at the position in 2023 and played just 12 innings there in 2022; his last season as the club’s regular center fielder was in 2020, his age-25 campaign.

Of course, that’s to say nothing of Chicago’s outfield-heavy crop of prospect talent residing in the upper minors, headlined by top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong and his elite center field defense. Both Crow-Armstrong and Alexander Canario made their big league debuts this September, while Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, and Brennen Davis are also limited to the outfield. Of course, that logjam could be cleared by including one or more of the aforementioned prospects in the return package for Soto, though even in that case the Cubs would likely be forced to play Soto or Happ primarily at DH in 2023 upon the arrival of Crow-Armstrong.

Another potentially complicating factor for the Cubs is Soto’s pending free agency. With Soto set to hit the open market following the 2024 season and the Cubs still building up toward contention, it’s fair to wonder if a club better situated for a World Series run in 2024 would be more aggressive in looking to acquire Soto than the Cubs. Although an acquiring club could certainly look to extend Soto to a long-term deal after dealing for him, agent Scott Boras is known for encouraging his clients to establish their value on the open market and Soto previously rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals earlier in his career.

The Cubs have rarely shown an appetite for megadeals at that level, as evidenced by last offseason’s signing of Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177MM deal in lieu of a pursuit of another top shortstop like Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts, both of whom signed commitments spanning a decade or longer. That said, it’s worth noting that Soto is far younger than the typical free agent. Swanson’s current deal in Chicago runs through his age-35 season; Soto could sign a 10-year deal next offseason and celebrate his 36th birthday during October of the final year of that contract.

Levine goes on to discuss a potential return package for Soto if the Padres and Cubs were to agree on a trade. He notes that utility player Christopher Morel has garnered trade interest from multiple clubs, and that sources indicated the Padres are particularly high on him. Morel hit well during his sophomore campaign in 2023, slashing .247/.313/.508 with 26 home runs. Morel primarily served as Chicago’s DH this season, though he logged time at all three outfield spots, second base, third base, and shortstop throughout the season. While Morel has proven playable all around the diamond, he’s appeared to be a below-average fielder at most of those positions. His best defensive position appears to be second base, though in Chicago he’s blocked at the keystone by 2023 Gold Glove finalist Nico Hoerner, who’s under contract through 2026. Between Morel’s bat, versatility, and pre-arbitration status, he figures to be a sought-after piece in trade discussions with the Cubs this offseason even in spite of his defensive shortcomings.

NL Central Notes: Woodruff, Cubs, Cardinals

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Brandon Woodruff addressed several topics during an interview on Foul Territory, including his hopes of returning from shoulder surgery before the 2024 season is over.  The possibility certainly exists that Woodruff’s anterior capsule procedure might sideline him for the entire year, but the Brewers right-hander acknowledged that he is far too early in the recovery process to set any timelines.  However, Woodruff said that “from talking with multiple doctors, there is a possibility to be open to me throwing at some point this summer….As an athlete, you have to set goals and [have] something to look forward to.”

Woodruff is under arbitration control for one remaining season and was initially seen as a possible trade candidate this winter given his rising arb price tag.  His shoulder surgery ended any chance of a trade, but it create some chance that the Brewers could non-tender Woodruff altogether.  That said, the Brew Crew might also look to sign Woodruff to some type of lower-cost two-year contract, allowing him time to recover and then hopefully be ready for a full season in 2025.  The two-time All-Star hasn’t yet spoken with the team about any kind of contract or his injury situation in general, but since “the season isn’t over yet,” he figures those conversations will eventually come.  Woodruff’s preference is definitely to stay put, as “I’ve been so lucky to be with one organization and basically one coaching staff my whole career….I fit in so well with that city and this organization that my hope is that I will be a Brewer for a long time.  That’s what I want.”

More from around the NL Central….

  • Injuries and inconsistency hampered the Cubs’ bullpen late in the season, contributing to the team’s subsequent fall out of the playoff race in September.  Relief pitching figures to be a target area for Chicago this winter, but Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic don’t believe this season’s outcome will change the front office’s aversion to heavy investments in the bullpen, given how relievers can run so hot or cold from year to year.  Some more experienced arms will be sought out, but with “an emphasis on finding veteran relievers who have had some success in the past — or flashed the potential to put it all together — but haven’t done it consistently or recently enough to command a multiyear contract.”
  • The Rangers’ Mike Maddux and the Diamondbacks’ Brent Strom are the opposing pitching coaches for the World Series, and Jeff Jones of the Bellville News-Democrat notes the bittersweet nature of this matchup for the Cardinals, considering that both coaches used to be employed in the St. Louis organization.  Maddux was the team’s pitching coach from 2018-22 before joining the Rangers last winter, and Strom worked for St. Louis from 2007-13, including a stint as the Cards’ minor league pitching coordinator.  Considering that the Cardinals’ pitching faltered in 2023 and they’re now planning to overhaul their rotation this winter, Jones observes that “whatever changes come in the staffing of player and pitching development will likely take the form of attempting to re-capture some of what was already in house and departed.”

Rob Gardner Passes Away

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Former major leaguer Rob Gardner has passed away, per an obituary from the Press & Sun-Bulletin out of Binghamton, New York. He was 78 years old.

Gardner was a left-hander pitcher who played in the majors from 1965 to 1973, bouncing around the league as a frequently-traded journeyman. His career began as a starter with the Mets in 1965. He created a memorable piece of baseball trivia in his final start of that season, taking the ball for the Mets’ game against the Phillies in October 2. Gardner tossed 15 shutout innings, an unfathomable accomplishment in today’s game, as both clubs failed to score. It was eventually declared a 0-0 draw after 18 innings.

The southpaw served a swingman role for the Mets in 1966, tossing 133 2/3 innings with a 5.12 ERA, the largest major league workload of his career. He was traded to the Cubs for the 1967 season and then to Cleveland for the campaign after that, playing a limited role with both clubs. He was stuck in the minors for all of the 1969 campaign but was traded to the Yankees before the following season.

That set the stage for Gardner to create another memorable piece of trivia in the coming years, though not for anything he did on the field. He and Ron Klimkowski were traded to the Athletics for Felipe Alou in April of 1971. Gardner was traded back to the Yankees in May and stayed with them through the 1972 season. Then he was traded to the A’s yet again, this time with Felipe’s brother Matty Alou going to the Yankees, giving Gardner the distinction of having twice been traded from the Yankees to the A’s with one of the Alou brothers going the other way.

Gardner also spent some time with the Brewers in 1973, then spent a couple more years in the minors before hanging up his cleats. He finished his career with a 4.35 ERA in 331 innings, having struck out 193 opponents. After retiring from baseball, he spent time as a firefighter and paramedic in Binghamton. MLBTR sends our condolences to all his family, friends and loved ones.

Guardians Interview Andy Green, Seeking Permission To Speak With Craig Counsell

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The Guardians have interviewed Cubs bench coach Andy Green as they continue their managerial search, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (X link). He joins Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, Giants bullpen/catching coach Craig Albernaz and Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza among those who have met with Cleveland brass.

Cleveland could add a big name to that list. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports that the Guardians have requested permission from the Brewers to meet with the current Milwaukee manager. Craig Counsell’s contract with the Brew Crew runs through the end of the month, meaning the Brewers have to sign off on any such meeting. Considering they’ve already granted him permission to interview for the Mets job, they could well do the same with Cleveland.

This is the first time Green has been publicly reported as a managerial candidate since he joined David Ross’ coaching staff during the 2019-20 offseason. The 46-year-old has spent four seasons in the #2 job in Chicago after three and a half years leading the charge in San Diego. The Padres tabbed Green as manager entering the 2016 season.

A mostly-rebuilding San Diego team lost 90+ games in his three full campaigns. With the club en route to a fourth-place finish in 2019, the Padres fired Green in September. That led him to Chicago. In addition to his three-plus years managing in the big leagues, the former MLB infielder had managed in the Diamondbacks’ farm system early in the 2010s.

Counsell’s MLB résumé is far more robust, as he has led the Brewers to a 53.1% win percentage and five playoff appearances in parts of nine seasons. Even if he meets with Cleveland, they’ll face competition from perhaps the Mets and a Milwaukee organization that has made clear it hopes to retain its longtime skipper.

A belief that New York would be willing to offer Counsell a notable raise relative to his reported $3.5MM salary is among the reasons some observers believe he could wind up in Queens (as is the oft-noted connection to new president of baseball operations David Stearns). Sammon writes that the Guardians could be prepared to make a competitive financial proposal to Counsell after making Terry Francona one of the league’s higher-paid managers during his 11 years there.

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