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Cubs Select Luis Torrens

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The Cubs announced to reporters, including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, that they have selected the contract of catcher Luis Torrens. They had a couple of vacancies on their 40-man roster and won’t need to make a corresponding move.

Torrens, 27 in May, has been with the Mariners over the past few years. He had a solid showing in 2021, hitting 15 home runs in 108 games. His .243/.299/.431 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 101, indicating he was a bit better than the league average hitter overall, though catchers generally produce a bit less than that. Unfortunately, he couldn’t maintain that in 2022. His strikeout rate ticked up from 26.2% to 30.1% as he hit .225/.283/.298 for a wRC+ of 72.

On the defensive side of things, Torrens hasn’t been graded very well. He has -22 Defensive Runs Saved behind the plate in his career while also getting poor marks from the FanGraphs framing metric. Given that bat-first reputation, his drop off at the plate last year put a dent in his value and the Mariners non-tendered him at season’s end.

The Cubs brought Torrens aboard on a minor league deal and will now have him up with the big league team after a strong spring performance. He hit a pair of home runs and slashed .273/.385/.636. The Cubs already have Tucker Barnhart and Yan Gomes on the roster but will apparently go with a three-catcher setup for now. Torrens has had very brief showings at first, second and third base in his big league career and could potentially fill in elsewhere, though the Cubs also have plenty of other options for those spots. Eric Hosmer should get regular work at first with Trey Mancini also in the mix and prospect Matt Mervis potentially jumping in at some point. Nico Hoerner will be at second while some combination of Patrick Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, Edwin Ríos and Miles Mastrobuoni will cover third.

The club doesn’t really have an explicit designated hitter, perhaps allowing them to rotate those players through that spot. The right-handed bat of Torrens could potentially platoon with lefties like Barnhart, Hosmer, Rios, Mervis or Mastrobuoni. In his strong 2021 season, Torrens hit nine of his home runs against lefties and slashed .275/.311/.542 for a wRC+ of 131.

Cubs Outright Rowan Wick, Option Christopher Morel

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The Cubs announced Monday that right-hander Rowan Wick went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Iowa. The team also optioned infielder/outfielder Christopher Morel to Iowa. Non-roster veterans Mike Tauchman and Roenis Elias, meanwhile, have been reassigned to minor league camp. They won’t make the roster out of spring training. Manager David Ross also confirmed earlier in the day that right-hander Javier Assad has made the team’s Opening Day bullpen (Twitter link via Jordan Bastian of MLB.com).

Wick, 30, has enough service time to reject the outright assignment, but doing so would mean forfeiting the $1.55MM salary to which he agreed earlier in the offseason when he avoided arbitration. As such, he’s all but certain to accept the assignment and remain in the organization without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster.

Wick has spent the past four seasons with the Cubs, pitching to a combined 3.66 ERA with a 25.2% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and 44.2% ground-ball rate. His results have dipped over the past two years, however, with his ERA clocking in at 4.24 during that time. Last year’s 23.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his four seasons with the Cubs.

The Cubs had enough faith in Wick to sign him to that $1.55MM deal, and that salary now quite likely helped them pass him through waivers. Since avoiding arbitration with Wick, they’ve signed Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer in addition to claiming hard-throwing righty Julian Merryweather off waivers. With a strong showing in Iowa, Wick would figure to put himself back in the mix for a big league spot pretty quickly, given his track record, but he’ll open the year in the minors and off the 40-man roster.

As for Morel, he’ll head to Iowa to receive regular at-bats rather than work in a part-time role on the big league roster. The 23-year-old hit .235/.308/.433 while playing third base, second base, shortstop, left field and center field in his MLB debut last summer. That came on the heels of a huge .306/.380/.565 batting line in Double-A. However, Morel still has only nine Triple-A games to his name, and strikeouts were an issue for him both in last year’s debut (32.2%) and even more so during spring training in 2023 (42.1%). Even though he fanned 24 times in 57 Cactus League plate appearances, he still posted a .269/.333/.577 batting line, but that type of production isn’t sustainable with such pronounced swing-and-miss issues.

The decision to option Morel doesn’t take away from the fact that the Cubs are still hoping he’ll be a major contributor for them over the long term. However, for the time being, the focus will be on reining in his strikeout tendencies in order to better take advantage of his impressive combination of plus raw power and plus speed.

Tigers Acquire Zach McKinstry From Cubs

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The Cubs have informed reporters, including Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, that they have traded infielder Zach McKinstry to the Tigers for right-hander Carlos Guzman. In order to make room on their 40-man roster for McKinstry, the Tigers have recalled Freddy Pacheco and placed him on the 60-day injured list, per Jason Beck of MLB.com.

McKinstry, 27, came to the Cubs in a 2022 trade that sent right-hander Chris Martin to the Dodgers. Chicago gave him plenty of reps down the stretch last year, but he responded with a tepid .206/.272/.361 batting line in 171 trips to the plate following the swap. Those numbers generally align with McKinstry’s career totals in Los Angeles; overall, he’s a career .208/.269/.384 hitter in 364 plate appearances at the MLB level.

In Triple-A, it’s been another story. McKinstry owns a .323/.401/.550 batting line in 489 plate appearances while appearing at every position other than first base, catcher and pitcher. He’ll give the Tigers a lefty-swinging bench option who can be plugged in just about anywhere. McKinstry doesn’t have minor league options remaining, so it looks as though he’ll make Detroit’s Opening Day roster.

In return, the Cubs will pick up a 24-year-old righty who split the 2022 season between High-A and Double-A (albeit just an inning and a third at the higher of the two). Guzman worked to a combined 4.11 ERA, striking out 20.6% of his opponents against a 7.8% walk rate with a 42.8% ground-ball rate. The 6’1″, 185-pound righty originally signed as a 16-year-old out of Venezuela back in 2015 and generally hasn’t ranked among the Tigers’ best prospects over the years. Guzman was Rule 5 eligible this past December but went unselected.

That said, Guzman has a 3.80 ERA across 317 minor league innings with strikeout and walk rates that are only slightly worse than average. He’ll give the Cubs an arm they can plug into their Double-A rotation and hope to mold into a potential option at the back of their rotation or perhaps as a middle or long reliever in the coming years.

Latest On Seiya Suzuki

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  • The Cubs haven’t yet decided how they’ll replace Seiya Suzuki on their season-opening roster, as Suzuki will need a 10-day IL stint after missing the last month of Spring Training due to an oblique strain.  Suzuki is making such steady development in his rehab work that even though he’ll miss some time during the regular season, it may not be all that much time. “Whether you are trying to put somebody on the [40-man] roster that’s not on it or trying to fill a gap for 10 days is a big deal,” Cubs manager David Ross told Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters.  “And it’s a big decision.  We have so much talent and a lot of depth here.  We would like to keep as much as we possibly can because of the long journey we’re about to start.”

Mariners Return Rule 5 Pick Chris Clarke To Cubs

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Right-hander Chris Clarke is officially once again part of the Cubs organization, as the Mariners returned the Rule 5 Draft selection to Chicago.  (Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune was among those to report the news.)

The Mariners took Clarke with the 22nd pick of last December’s R5, taking the opportunity to get a closer look at the 24-year-old in action.  Clarke was a fourth-round draft choice for the Cubs in 2019, and the 6’7″ USC product had posted some solid strikeout rates and very impressive walk rates over 196 2/3 career innings in the minors.

Those numbers came with a modest 4.26 ERA, however, though some bad batted-ball luck was partially to blame.  Clarke is more of a grounder specialist, and thus his 58% groundball rate in 96 2/3 Double-A innings last season would’ve likely led to better results had Clarke not been hampered by a large .375 BABIP.

As per the regulations of the Rule 5 Draft, Clarke would’ve had to remain on Seattle’s active roster for the entire season in order for the team to fully assume his rights from the Cubs.  Even with Clarke’s potential, it seemed unlikely that he would’ve made the jump from Double-A to the majors and won a job in a pretty loaded Mariners relief corps.  Seattle had one of baseball’s better bullpens in 2022, leaving Clarke will little margin for error just in breaking camp with the team, let alone sticking with the M’s throughout the year.

Cubs Option Adrian Sampson, Name Hayden Wesneski As Fifth Starter

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The Cubs ended the competition to determine the team’s fifth starter, as manager David Ross told reporters that Hayden Wesneski would be joining the rotation.  Adrian Sampson had been one of the other contenders for the job, but the right-hander was optioned to the minor leagues earlier today.

The news officially confirms what had become increasingly obvious during Spring Training, as Wesneski set himself apart with a 2.12 ERA over 17 innings of work, as well as a strong 31.43% strikeout rate and an 8.57% walk rate.  By contrast, Sampson struggled to an 8.66 ERA over 17 2/3 innings, while Javier Assad pitched well (2.57 ERA) but tossed only seven innings due to his commitments with Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic.

Wesneski was a sixth-round pick for the Yankees in the 2019 draft, and he came to Chicago at last year’s trade deadline as the return for Scott Effross.  That trade is suddenly looking like a pretty significant steal for the Cubs, considering that Effross threw 12 2/3 innings for New York before undergoing Tommy John surgery that will sideline him for the entire 2023 season.

Meanwhile, the Cubs now have a viable starting candidate in Wesneski, continuing his relatively quick career ascension considering that he didn’t pitch at all during the canceled 2020 minor league season.  The 25-year-old had solid but not eye-popping numbers (3.68 ERA over 269 minor league innings) on the farm with the Yankees and Cubs, but he looked impressive in his first taste of MLB action last year, delivering a 2.18 ERA, 25% K%, and 5.3% walk rate over 33 innings for Chicago.

Wesneski slots in behind Marcus Stroman, new signing Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele, and Drew Smyly in the Cubbies’ rotation.  Longtime Chicago veteran Kyle Hendricks is still recovering from a capsular tear in his shoulder, and Sampson and Assad project as further depth options in the minor leagues.

Cubs Trade Esteban Quiroz To Phillies

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The Phillies acquired infielder Esteban Quiroz from the Cubs in exchange for cash, according to announcements from both teams. Philadelphia has assigned Quiroz to minor league camp.

Quiroz, 31, made his big league debut with Chicago last season and hit .275/.370/.275 in 47 trips to the plate. He’s a career .259/.385/.495 hitter in 776 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, where he’s played primarily second base but has also seen action at third base and in the outfield corners. The Cubs outrighted Quiroz off the 40-man roster back in November, but was in camp with them as a non-roster invitee this spring.

It’s a depth move for the Phillies, who’ll be Quiroz’s fifth organization in six years. The well-traveled infielder didn’t sign with an affiliated club until his age-26 season, when the Padres plucked him from the Mexican League. Quiroz is a left-handed bat who draws walks at a prolific rate (15.3%) and strikes out at a slightly below-average clip (21.1%) in the minors. He’s swatted 34 homers in 204 Triple-A games and can give the Phils some depth at multiple positions.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live Cubs-centric chat on Thursday at 9am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

The Cubs made a pair of significant signings, but still avoided the market’s flashiest free agents.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Cubs kicked off their offseason with one notable change to the coaching staff, promoting Dustin Kelly to hitting coach.  It’s been a high-turnover position for the Cubs over the years.  Otherwise, manager David Ross’ coaching staff largely remained the same.

The Cubs had telegraphed their intention to let Willson Contreras leave, but in November made the easy choice to tender the one-year qualifying offer in order to lock down draft pick compensation.  Contreras, of course, declined.  Though an agreement with Contreras wasn’t in the plans, it soon became clear the Cubs would be active in free agency.

From the outset, the Cubs were known to have interest in the “Big Four” free agent shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson.  Though Nico Hoerner did a fine job at shortstop in 2022, he was willing to move to second base, and the Cubs saw it as an opportunity to improve their up-the-middle defense.

As you know, the Cubs signed Swanson to the second-largest contract in franchise history.  The Cubs’ choice will reverberate over the next seven years, so it’s worth examining how it unfolded.

Trea Turner was the first of the four off the board, reaching an 11-year, $300MM agreement with the Phillies on December 5th, the first day of the Winter Meetings.  That total exceeded MLBTR’s $268MM projection by about 12%, which doesn’t seem too bad.  But also consider that before Turner signed with the Phillies, the Padres reportedly offered $342MM, which topped our projection by about 28%.

Having left a reported $42MM on the table, it would appear that the suggestion of Turner’s strong east coast preference was accurate.  I assume there was some number the Cubs could have come up with to convince Turner to put down roots in the Midwest, but to the extent that any of these contracts are reasonable, that number would have been less so.  Turner was seemingly never really an option for the Cubs, but his signing established that Big Four shortstop prices would exceed preseason expectations.  It also established that the Padres badly wanted a top free agent position player, having offered $342MM to Turner and reportedly around $415MM to Aaron Judge.

Agent Scott Boras later revealed that the Cubs were of one at least three teams that were “really after” Bogaerts.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, Twins, and Blue Jays, the Padres wanted Bogaerts enough to reach 11 years and $280MM on December 8th.  MLBTR was at $189MM for Bogaerts in October, so his total beat our projection by a whopping 48% and $91MM.  I don’t know what Bogaerts’ second-best offer was.  It’s possible that if bidding stopped in the $200MM range, the Cubs would’ve signed him.

The Cubs were presumably in on Correa to some degree, but at that point in the offseason he certainly seemed headed toward a contract well beyond their comfort zone.  MLBTR had predicted $288MM for Correa.  But five days after Bogaerts reached an agreement, Correa had a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants in place – pending a physical.  That would’ve been 21% beyond our projection.

As of December 17th, the day the Cubs reached an agreement with Swanson, everyone still thought the Correa-Giants deal was happening.  That same day, Mets owner Steve Cohen remarked, “We got there late” on Correa.  Swanson seemed reasonable by comparison, with his contract exceeding MLBTR’s projection by about 15% and his total just above half of the initial Correa agreement.  While Swanson was the consensus “worst” of the four shortstops, that’s less a knock on him and more to highlight how good the other three have been in their careers.

Even to reach $177MM for Swanson, the Cubs had to go out of their comfort zone.  The contract runs through Swanson’s age-35 season, the type and length of deal they’ve been avoiding in recent years.  Given a high strikeout rate and lack of walks, Swanson’s power carries his offense and should lead to a wRC+ in the 110 range.  He’s very well-regarded defensively, winning a Gold Glove and leading shortstops by a wide margin in 2022 in Outs Above Average.  The Cubs expect Swanson to be a clubhouse leader and a high-floor, strong defensive shortstop who will remain at the position for most or all of his contract.

It’s worth noting that since Swanson declined a qualifying offer from the Braves, the Cubs will forfeit their second-highest pick in the July amateur draft and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.  This would have been true for Bogaerts or Turner as well.  The Cubs lost the #49 pick in the draft for signing Swanson, but also gained the #68 pick for the loss of Contreras.  Fans can welcome Contreras back to Wrigley in Cardinal red at a homestand in early May.

Three days after the Cubs reached agreement with Swanson, Correa’s press conference with the Giants was delayed due to an issue with his physical.  The issue was later said to be Correa’s 2014 fibula fracture.  The following day, Cohen and the Mets swooped in to make a $315MM deal, lopping off $35MM from the Giants’ price.  The Mets, however, had the same concerns as the Giants, and by January 5th other teams were again getting involved.

It was at this point that, in theory, the Cubs could have jumped in and done what Cohen initially planned to do: install Correa as the long-term third baseman.  But for a team that reportedly “loved” Correa as recently as November, the Cubs didn’t make him an offer his first time through free agency, after the lockout.  And the Ricketts family not being nearly as impulsive or free-spending as Cohen, there’s no indication they tried to jump in after Correa’s physicals scuttled two separate $300MM deals.  Plus, once the price tumbled all the way down to six years and $200MM, the Twins had clear advantages: they were the incumbent, and they’d have Correa continue playing shortstop.

So yes, the Cubs technically could have signed any of the Big Four shortstops.  But given how things developed and knowing what we know now, it’s difficult to see how it could have been anyone but Swanson with the Cubs’ current ownership.

Most of the Cubs’ key signings took place in December, so it was a very busy month for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins.  Throughout the offseason, the Cubs were known to be seeking two starting pitchers, one of whom might be Drew Smyly, who had good results for them over 106 1/3 innings in 2022.  Smyly was indeed the secondary rotation signing, at a price matching expectations.

Though some early interest was professed for Kodai Senga in November, it seems Jameson Taillon was always the Cubs’ top free agent starting pitcher target.  Taillon explained later to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, “The Cubs made it clear from day one I was a top priority. If you can nerd-out and talk pitching with me, that really works for me.”  It seems the Cubs’ pitching infrastructure talking points really did help, as the Phillies offered Taillon $72MM, but he took $68MM from Chicago.

While MLBTR did expect a four-year deal for Taillon, the contracts he and Taijuan Walker received moved the mid-tier market forward with their $17-18MM average annual values.  Taillon, 31, is a solid mid-rotation arm, though I don’t think we can count on the Cubs getting him to miss more bats and raise his ceiling.  The team still lacks an ace, but convincing Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, or Jacob deGrom to join the Cubs would’ve required an uncharacteristic overpay by the Ricketts family.  The Rangers, another team that has been making improvements but still has less than a 2% chance at reaching the playoffs, did just that to lure deGrom.

The Cubs didn’t throw fans any curveballs in their choices to fill holes in center field and at catcher.  The market for center field was thin, and the club moved quickly to sign Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal.  The fit works for several reasons: his defense creates a decent floor for the Cubs, but the one-year term keeps the spot open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2024.  For his part, if the 27-year-old Bellinger can bring his wRC+ back into the 110 range, a good multiyear deal should be waiting for him in free agency after the season.

Reports suggested the Cubs had interest in catchers such as Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez, and Sean Murphy.  Once Vazquez and Narvaez went off the board, the Cubs opted for a defense-first addition with the more affordable Tucker Barnhart.  Elsewhere the Cubs also worked around the edges, bringing in Trey Mancini with the goal of finding some pop.  Mancini will spend time in the outfield corners, at first base, and at DH as needed.  Given an opt-out after 2023, Mancini is seemingly hoping to rebuild value and re-enter the free agent market.

Eric Hosmer doesn’t provide power, but the Cubs brought him in anyway.  The Padres are paying all but $720K of Hosmer’s $13MM salary this year, so it won’t be painful for the Cubs to pull the plug if Hosmer isn’t producing.  It’s quite possible Matt Mervis hits his way into the lineup at Hosmer’s expense sometime in the first half.  The club similarly made a modest addition at third base with the Edwin Rios pickup.  Rios, at least, is on the right side of 30 and has shown big power in his limited big league exposure.  Rios missed most of 2021 with shoulder surgery and much of 2022 with a hamstring tear, hence his affordable contract.

For much-needed bullpen help, Hoyer again attempted to identify bargain buys.  However, he noted in January, “I do think the buy-low reliever market has been a lot higher than the past. It’s made that job difficult.”  So far, Hoyer has matched up with a pair of righties: Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger.  There’s been talk of adding a lefty, and Zack Britton and Mike Minor remain on the market with eight days left until Opening Day.

The bulk of the Cubs’ offseason comes down to a pair of long-term deals from the second tier of their respective positions in Swanson and Taillon.  Those two should help, and it’s possible Bellinger and/or Mancini have resurgent seasons.  On the other hand, the Cubs lost a very good catcher in Contreras.  Overall, the Cubs look a little bit better on paper, though they remain lacking in star power.

For a club that has committed over $500MM in contracts over the last two offseasons, it still feels like the Cubs are being cautious.  Owner Tom Ricketts expressed a willingness to exceed the competitive balance tax “in the near future,” but perhaps not by a lot.  The CBT is set at $233MM this year, with the Cubs currently projected in the $219MM range.  The CBT rises to $237MM in 2024, $241MM in ’25, and $244MM in ’26.

Assuming Marcus Stroman and Mancini opt out after the season, the Cubs’ projected CBT payroll for 2024 will be south of $100MM, leaving plenty of spending room for next offseason.  While the Cubs have several interesting prospects, their farm system is not teeming with near-MLB-ready future stars, and it’s not clear exactly how Hoyer and company will pull the team out of its current rut.

How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason? (Link to poll)

Cubs Notes: Suzuki, Wesneski, Assad

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  • Cubs manager David Ross provided media (including MLB.com) with an update on Seiya Suzuki, as the outfielder continues to recover from an oblique strain.  Suzuki will likely need to begin the season on the injured list to make up for his lost Spring Training time, but he has been steadily increasing his workouts, and been taking part in some light baseball activities within the last week.
  • Hayden Wesneski has become the favorite for the Cubs’ fifth starter role, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes, which could mean that Adrian Sampson will begin the season as a depth starter at Triple-A.  Wesneski made his MLB debut last season, with an impressive 2.18 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, and 5.3% walk rate over the small sample size of 33 innings.  Besides Sampson, Javier Assad is also still in the competition for a rotation job, though Assad hasn’t been amassing innings in spring camp, but rather with Mexico’s WBC team.  Sharma feels Assad might also have a path to Chicago’s roster as a reliever rather than as a starter, if Keegan Thompson’s velocity continues to be inconsistent.
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