Hoyer On Cubs’ Deadline Approach, Rotation
The Cubs are 6-11 over their past 17 games and have fallen to two and half games behind the Brewers for the lead in the National League Central, but it doesn’t sound like the slump is pushing the team into any sort of panic. The Cubs, after all, are still eight games over .500 and still have an excellent +83 run differential on the season. In an appearance on the Mully & Hanley show on 670 The Score, general manager Jed Hoyer spoke of his team’s recent play and his belief that most of the keys to righting the ship are already on the roster (full audio of Hoyer’s 15-minute interview is available).
“I don’t think it necessarily changes what we’re looking for,” Hoyer said of the Cubs’ recent swoon. “I think we still feel as though this team is really capable and has a chance to be really good, and we feel like the answers are internal. But we’ll obviously try to stay nimble. If something happens on our team or there’s some reason that we feel like we need to upgrade a certain position or add to a certain position, I feel like we certainly have the ability to do that. But this year feels different than some, in that I really do feel like this team, as constructed, is capable of doing a lot of good things. I think that most of the answers are probably in that clubhouse.”
Chicago has received lackluster production thus far from its top offseason signing, Yu Darvish, who remains on the disabled list due to a biceps issue. When healthy, Darvish has posted a 4.95 ERA in 40 innings of work. While his 11.0 K/9 mark ranks among the best in the National League, he’s also averaged nearly five walks per nine innings and been far more homer-prone than usual (1.58 HR/9).
Conversely, left-hander Mike Montgomery has stepped up nicely in Darvish’s absence, tossing 35 2/3 innings of 2.02 ERA ball across six starts in that time. Montgomery’s modest strikeout rate, 87.3 percent strand rate and .208 BABIP in that time all forecast some regression, as do his 3.63 FIP and 4.09 xFIP, but there’s little denying he’s looked like a capable rotation piece with Darvish on the mend. Hoyer once again suggested that Montgomery could continue to make some starts even once everyone is fully healthy.
“He’s been, really, a savior of our rotation in that spot,” Hoyer said of the left-hander. “…I think he’s proven that he can start in the Major Leagues. He’s been saying that for awhile, and we always believed him, but we always had the ability to have him in that sort of sixth starter/emergency role, and he understood that. … I thought Scott Boras said that really well when it comes to Albert Almora as well. This guy’s playing on a winning team, and that’s the team’s focus — not entirely on development. I think the same thing goes for Mike. He’s earned a spot in the rotation by the way he’s pitched, and I think we’ll move forward, and I think he’ll continue to do the same thing for us. I’m proud of the way he’s responded to getting an opportunity.”
Certainly, injuries could create a greater sense of urgency for the Cubs as the deadline approaches, but for the time being they look more like a club poised more to operate around the margins than to make a significant splash on the trade market. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein has already gone on record to state that all of the speculation tying the Cubs to Manny Machado from last month was “out there in fantasy land,” and while the Cubs surely figure to at least gauge the asking price on all of the market’s most intriguing trade pieces, reports since that time have downplayed the possibility of an earnest pursuit.
NL Notes: Lester, deGrom, Keller, Dietrich
There’s no denying that Jon Lester has produced top-level results for the Cubs, but his peripherals reveal some cause for concern, as Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs writes in a detailed analysis of the veteran hurler that’s well worth your time. Suffice to say that Jaffe provides ample support for his conclusion that Lester is probably due for some significant regression. Of course, there’s not much for the Cubs to do here but continue riding Lester, who would still be a productive pitcher even if he falls back to last year’s earned-run levels. But it does seem notable that Lester’s 4.33 ERA in 2017 came with better grades from ERA estimators (4.10 FIP/3.85 xFIP/4.07 SIERA) than he has received to this point in 2018 (4.08 FIP/4.46 xFIP/4.51 SIERA).
Here’s more from the National League:
- Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic argued recently (subscription link) that the Mets ought to try to get a long-term deal done with righty Jacob deGrom rather than shopping him this summer. Of course, such a move would be dependent upon the hurler’s own preferences, too, and may not be practicable in the middle of the season. Pursuing a new deal with deGrom would seem to imply an ongoing effort to contend in upcoming seasons, despite the organization’s recent disappointments. In that regard, Rosenthal’s related suggestion — that the team dangle co-ace Noah Syndergaard this summer instead — seems tough to square with that strategy. Syndergaard is younger, cheaper, and more controllable than deGrom. But his present value is likely lower, since he has dealt with significant injury issues of late. For a team in the Mets’ situation, a strategic choice to keep (and try to extend) deGrom would seem to support the retention of Syndergaard as well. Regardless, it’s an interesting situation. One key element in potential contract talks is deGrom’s relatively advanced age. Rosenthal’s colleague Tim Britton did a nice job breaking down a potential extension price tag in another recent subscription piece, suggesting a five-year arrangement (two arb years plus three would-be free-agent campaigns) structured in the same essential manner as Jake Arrieta‘s contract with the Phillies (that is, with an opt-out provision that the team can void by adding more money to the deal). Whether there’s any interest in such a deal, on either side, really isn’t clear at this stage.
- The Diamondbacks seem to have whiffed on righty Brad Keller, who was lost to the Royals via the Rule 5 draft and has now thrown 48 innings of 2.25 ERA ball on the year. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic examines the topic from the perspective of the Arizona organization, noting that it seems the roster flexibility was there to protect Keller had the team made him a priority. GM Mike Hazen says that the Snakes liked the 22-year-old, but faced other considerations. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the major-league team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys … that were closer to the big leagues in our mind,” Hazen explained.
- Marlins outfielder Derek Dietrich is looking increasingly like a useful trade asset, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. The left-handed hitter has been on fire at the plate of late, running up his batting line to .303/.354/.491 in 294 plate appearances on the year. To be fair, he’s also walking less, striking out more, and carrying a heftier BABIP than usual, but Dietrich has produced a career-best 38.3% hard-hit rate this season as well. It’s also easy to forget that he has produced quite a bit in prior campaigns; indeed, he’s a 118 OPS+ hitter since the start of 2015. A substantial portion of that output came against right-handed pitching, though he has swung well against southpaws this year, his first as a true regular. Soon to turn 29, Dietrich is earning only $2.9MM in 2018 and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond the present one. He has never been regarded as a particularly good defender, but is capable of lining up in the corner outfield and infield as well as at second base — versatility that will appeal to some contenders but also to a Marlins team facing an uncertain future. All told, there are some clear limitations to Dietrich’s value, but there’s also quite a lot to like about the player.
2018 Amateur Draft Signings: 6/27/18
We’ll use this post to track the day’s most notable signings from the first few rounds of the draft. Scouting reports and pre-draft rankings can be found courtesy of MLB.com, Fangraphs, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (the latter two available to subscribers only)…
- The Cubs have convinced supplemental second-round choice Cole Roederer to forego his commitment to UCLA, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). It’ll cost the team $1.2M, well over the $775,100 value that came with the 77th overall selection. Though he did not earn any top-100 tabs, Roederer placed 161st on the Baseball America board. BA credits him with “hints of all five tools and growing power,” with solid upside but also questions surrounding his relatively small stature. Clearly, the Cubs believe in Roederer, whose over-slot bonus absorbs most of the savings the team achieved from later selections.
Shae Simmons Elects Free Agency
A day after clearing outright waivers, right-handed reliever Shae Simmons has rejected an assignment to the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate and instead elected free agency, as Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune tweets.
Simmons hasn’t been previously outrighted but does have more than three years of MLB service time (much of it spent on the MLB disabled list), which affords him the right to pass on an outright assignment and again test the open market. The Cubs ran Simmons throughout waivers in hopes of creating some roster flexibility, it seems, as they didn’t announce any form of corresponding move along with his outright, and their 40-man roster remains at 39 players.
Now 27 years of age, Simmons is a ways removed from an impressive rookie campaign with the Braves back in 2014. The former 22nd-round pick was never considered an elite prospect but debuted to toss 21 2/3 innings of 2.91 ERA ball with a 23-to-11 K/BB ratio, just one homer allowed and 52.8 percent ground-ball rate. At the very least, Simmons looked to have earned himself a bullpen gig for the following season — and potentially for years to come — but he required offseason Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2015 season.
Upon returning in 2016, Simmons tossed 25 innings between the Majors and minors, generally faring well along the way. He was traded alongside Mallex Smith to the Mariners in a deal that netted the Braves pitching prospect Luiz Gohara, and he went on to spend most of the 2017 season on the 60-day DL in Seattle with a flexor strain.
The Cubs still saw enough in Simmons that they signed him to a split Major League deal this winter and placed him on the 40-man roster, but the righty has struggled to this point in the year down in Iowa. Through 22 2/3 innings, Simmons had logged a 5.56 ERA with as many walks as strikeouts (21 apiece). While his 50.8 percent ground-ball rate and the one homer he’d allowed were both encouraging signs, Simmons’ lack of control proved too detrimental to overcome. Simmons was still averaging 96 mph on his heater with the Mariners in 2017, and he can still miss bats and generate grounders, so it seems likely that another team will take a chance on him as long as he’s healthy (barring a reunion with the Cubs on a new minor league deal).
Cubs Place Kris Bryant On Disabled List
The Cubs announced a lengthy series of roster moves Tuesday, most notably placing Kris Bryant on the disabled list (retroactive to June 23) due to left shoulder inflammation. Chicago also placed right-hander Justin Hancock on the DL due to inflammation in his right shoulder and optioned righty Duane Underwood Jr. back to Triple-A Iowa. In place of that trio, the Cubs are calling up right-hander Dillon Maples, right-hander Luke Farrell and infielder David Bote.
It’s the first career trip to the disabled list for Bryant, who entered play today hitting .280/.383/.481 with nine homers, 20 doubles and three triples so far on the season. There’s no timetable available yet for Bryant, who hasn’t played since this past Friday.
The 27-year-old Hancock has posted a strong 1.46 ERA in 12 2/3 innings for the Cubs so far, though his 11-to-9 K/BB ratio is far less encouraging. Underwood, 23, recently made his MLB debut in a spot start, tossing four innings of one-run ball.
Of the names being recalled to join the big league roster, Maples is the most noteworthy. The 26-year-old flamethrower is widely considered to be among Chicago’s best prospects, and the organization hopes that he can help to anchor the relief corps for years to come. If that’s to happen, though, Maples will have to considerably improve his control. The righty has the ability to wholly overpower opposing hitters, as evidenced by averaging better than 14 strikeouts per nine innings pitched across three minor league levels over the past two seasons. However, Maples’ control has been terrible in that time as well; he averaged 5.3 walks per nine innings pitched in 2017 and has issued 24 free passes in 25 1/3 innings with Triple-A Iowa so far in 2018.
Bote has been up and down with the Cubs this season, appearing in a total of eight games and hitting .263/.286/.368. The 25-year-old has a career .282/.360/.510 slash in 70 Triple-A games and has experience at every position other than catcher (including seven innings of minor league relief pitching). Farrell, 27, was claimed off waivers last October and has already pitched 20 innings in the Majors for the Cubs this year, recording a 4.50 ERA with 30 strikeouts against eight walks.
Cubs Place Shae Simmons On Waivers
The Cubs have placed righty Shae Simmons on waivers, according to an announcement from Triple-A Iowa. If and when he clears, the organization will have an an open 40-man spot to work with.
Though the club did not specify the nature of the waivers sought, Simmons’s MLB.com player page indicates that he has already been outrighted after clearing waivers. If that’s the case, then it seems that other organizations have already passed on a chance to add a player who signed a split contract over the winter and has yet to ascend to the big leagues this year.
It’s not surprising to see the Cubs make this move with Simmons, who has yet to establish himself in the majors despite showing intriguing swing-and-miss ability at times in the minors. He has not been at his best this year, working to a 5.56 ERA in 22 2/3 innings at Triple-A while logging as many walks as strikeouts (21 apiece).
Cubs Sign First-Rounder Nico Hoerner
TODAY: The deal is official, as Hoerner himself revealed via his Instagram page.
JUNE 12: The Cubs are closing in on an agreement with first-round pick Nico Hoerner, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (via Twitter). The former Stanford shortstop is expected to sign for the full slot value of $2.724MM that comes with the No. 24 overall selection, according to Mooney, and he’ll begin his pro career with the Cubs’ short-season Class-A affiliate, the Eugene Emeralds. MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets that all that remains for the deal to be finalized is a physical, which should happen later this week.
Chicago, it seems, was a bit more bullish on Hoerner than most pre-draft rankings. Hoerner ranked 37th in the class in the estimation of Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, while ESPN’s Keith Law pegged him 39th, Baseball America ranked him 42nd and Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com tabbed him 52nd.
Those reports indicate that there’s somewhat of a split among scouts as to whether Hoerner can remain at shortstop or will require a move to second base or the outfield. BA makes note of his impressive exit velocity and strong hands, while all of the reports note his quality bat-to-ball skills and above-average speed. McDaniel and Longenhagen note that he has drawn some comparisons to Arizona’s Chris Owings.
Hoerner hit .345/.391/.496 at Stanford this past season, with two homers, 17 doubles, six triples and 15 steals (in 19 attempts) along the way. More impressively, he struck out just 22 times in 57 games played while drawing 20 walks in that time as well.
Injury Notes: Darvish, Shaw, A’s, Brewers, Bucs
Right-hander Yu Darvish, out since May 23 with triceps tendinitis, is nearing a return to the Cubs’ rotation. Darvish will make a Single-A rehab start Monday and could head back to the majors thereafter, per Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. It’s not yet clear whether he’d bounce Mike Montgomery from the team’s rotation, as the lefty has performed well as a starter in Darvish’s absence and caught the attention of the Cubs’ front office in the process. Should Chicago choose to keep Montgomery and the walk-happy Tyler Chatwood in starting roles, it could go to a six-man rotation upon Darvish’s return.
More injury updates from around the majors:
- The Rockies announced that they’ve placed reliever Bryan Shaw on the 10-day disabled list with a right calf strain and recalled righty Yency Almonte from Triple-A Albuquerque. The DL placement continues a season to forget for Shaw, who’s in the first of a three-year, $27MM deal. Shaw has disappointed with his new club thus far, having recorded a 7.57 ERA with career-worst walk and home run rates (5.05 BB/9, 2.02 HR/9) over 35 2/3 innings.
- Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman, on the 10-day DL since June 15, won’t come back when first eligible, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Chapman landed on the shelf with a right thumb injury, though team doctors now believe the problem area is just above his wrist, according to Slusser. He may need a cortisone shot as a result, and might not return until the A’s next homestand (June 29 to July 4). Meanwhile, the A’s are set to activate reliever Ryan Buchter from the 10-day DL on Monday, Slusser adds. The offseason trade acquisition has been dealing with a left shoulder strain and hasn’t pitched for the A’s since April 25.
- The Brewers will likely go without reliever Matt Albers until after the All-Star break, manager Craig Counsell told Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters Sunday. Albers is “going in the right direction,” though, Counsell noted. The 35-year-old has been out for just under two weeks with right shoulder soreness. Albers, whom the Brewers signed to a two-year, $5MM guarantee over the winter, has pitched to a 3.53 ERA with 7.85 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 45.7 percent groundball rate in 28 2/3 innings.
- The Pirates have sent reliever Michael Feliz to the 10-day DL with right shoulder inflammation and recalled righty Clay Holmes from Triple-A Indianapolis, the team announced. The hard-throwing Feliz has endured a rough season in his first year with the Pirates, who acquired him from Astros as part of the teams’ Gerrit Cole trade over the winter. Feliz ranks second among Pirates relievers in innings pitched (32 2/3) and has struck out 10.74 hitters per nine, but a high walk rate (4.41 BB/9) and a low grounder percentage (30.7) have helped lead to a 5.51 ERA.
Injury Notes: Morrow, Adams, Franchy, Acuna, Folty
The Cubs announced Wednesday that they’ve placed closer Brandon Morrow on the 10-day disabled list, retroactive to June 17. Morrow was unavailable in yesterday’s doubleheader due to back spasms. Right-hander Justin Hancock, whom the Cubs recalled to serve as the 26th man in yesterday’s twin bill, will remain on the roster for the time being. To this point in the season, Morrow has made good on the Cubs’ two-year, $21MM investment, pitching to a 1.59 ERA with 9.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 0.4 HR/9 with a career-best 53.6 percent ground-ball rate through 22 2/3 innings. Chicago has been cautious in its usage of Morrow in an effort to protect the injury-prone righty’s arm; he’s yet to pitch more than an inning in any appearance, and he hasn’t pitched on three consecutive days all season. There’s no indication as to how long Morrow will be expected to miss, though there’s little reason to believe that this’ll be a lengthy absence. With Morrow on the disabled list, righties Steve Cishek and Pedro Strop stand out as the likeliest candidates to get the call in save opportunities.
More injury news from around the game…
- A fractured left index finger landed Nationals first baseman/outfielder Matt Adams on the 10-day disabled list Tuesday. There’s no word yet as to exactly how long he’s expected to miss, though his absence will surely be felt when the Nats face right-handed pitchers. As has been the case throughout his career, Adams has floundered against lefties this season but thrived when holding the platoon advantage. He’s clobbering opposing righties at a career-best .283/.364/.614 clip this season and has belted a dozen homers in 143 plate appearances against right-handed opponents. With Adams joining Ryan Zimmermann on the DL, it was Daniel Murphy who stepped up at first base last night. Both Murphy and Mark Reynolds figure to be options there moving forward.
- Padres fans are holding their breath as they await a new diagnosis on outfielder Franchy Cordero, whose rehab has been shut down entirely, as Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets. Cordero, who began a minor league rehab assignment this week, “felt something” in his elbow while taking a swing in one of those rehab games, according to Lin. He was evaluated by Dr. Neal ElAttrache yesterday. While there’s been no official word from the team just yet, it’s an ominous-sounding injury at a time when the organization hoped Cordero was nearing a return to the lineup. The 23-year-old Cordero hit .237/.307/.439 through 154 PAs early in the season and had developed a penchant for off-the-charts exit velocity and distance projections from Statcast thanks to his light-tower raw power.
- The Braves, meanwhile, are hopeful that they’ll get a pair of key players back in the near future. David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted last night that Ronald Acuna has upped the intensity of his workouts over the past two days and is expected to be cleared to begin what sounds like it’ll be a brief minor league rehab assignment “real soon.” Atlanta is also tentatively planning on activating righty Mike Foltynewicz for Sunday’s start against the Orioles, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. While that’s the organizational hope, however, the team won’t use right-hander Brandon McCarthy in relief until there’s greater certainty about the availability of Foltynewicz, who is on the shelf due to a minor triceps issue. If Foltynewicz is determined unready for Sunday’s outing, then, it seems McCarthy will get the ball in his place.
Latest On Cubs’ Rotation Plans
When Mike Montgomery stepped into the Cubs’ rotation following Yu Darvish‘s placement on the 10-day disabled list skipper Joe Maddon characterized the move as temporary and suggested that the lefty would be bullpen-bound once everyone was healthy. After four excellent starts by Montgomery, though, GM Jed Hoyer is making no such proclamations, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes.
Hoyer suggests that the Cubs will “use common sense,” noting how well Montgomery has pitched and plainly stating that the front office has taken notice. The GM also stressed, however, that his comments don’t necessarily indicate that one of the team’s five members of the Opening Day rotation — Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks, Tyler Chatwood and Darvish — will be losing his spot, either.
[Related: Chicago Cubs depth chart]
The Cubs have utilized a six-man rotation in the past, and it seems that could be a possibility based on Hoyer’s comments. Darvish is set to throw a simulated game on Tuesday of this week, as MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat wrote last night, and Montgomery will step up and make his fifth start in place of Darvish on that same day. It’s not hard to see why Montgomery at least has the Cubs thinking about altering their plans; in 23 2/3 innings over four starts in place of Darvish, he’s pitched to a 1.14 ERA with a 14-to-3 K/BB ratio. While the lack of punchouts isn’t ideal, Montgomery has induced grounders at a 60.9 percent clip and has allowed hard contact at a below-average clip (29 percent) while inducing plenty of weak contact (21.7 percent) as well.
Of course, Montgomery has had opportunities in the rotation in the past and has not locked down a long-term spot in the Cubs’ rotation, so it’s not especially surprising to hear Hoyer imply that the four-start stretch, while impressive, isn’t guaranteeing him anything. Beyond that, the Cubs have invested significant financial resources in Darvish (six years, $126MM) and Chatwood (three years, $38MM). While both have struggled — Darvish with home runs and Chatwood with a staggering 8.2 BB/9 mark — each right-hander figures to be afforded ample opportunity to work things out given those contractual obligations.