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White Sox Outright Tayron Guerrero, Kodi Medeiros To Triple-A

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The White Sox have outrighted right-hander Tayron Guerrero and left-hander Kodi Medeiros to Triple-A, the team announced (hat tip to The Athletic’s James Fegan).  Guerrero and Medeiros each cleared waivers after being designated for assignment since the start of the new year.

Guerrero was claimed off waivers from the Marlins in early December following a season that saw the righty post a 6.26 ERA over 46 innings out of Miami’s bullpen.  The hard-throwing Guerrero has yet to harness his 99mph fastball into a consistent force at the MLB level, as while he has a 9.4 K/9 over his 106 career big league innings, he has also issued a lot of free passes — a 7.0 BB/9 last season, boosting his overall career BB/9 to 5.7.

Control has been a persistent issue for Guerrero throughout his decade-long professional career, as he also has a 5.8 BB/9 (with a 4.02 ERA and 9.0 K/9) over 346 2/3 minor league innings.  Guerrero just celebrated his 29th birthday two days ago, so while he’d count as a late bloomer, there’s still time for him to become a useful relief weapon if the White Sox can get him on track.

Selected 12th overall by the Brewers in the 2014 draft, Medeiros has yet to reach even the Triple-A level through six seasons in pro ball.  Medeiros has a 4.77 ERA, 8.6 K/9, and 1.82 K/BB rate through 545 minor league frames (starting 91 of 139 games).  The southpaw came to the White Sox in July 2018, as part of the trade package in the deal that sent Joakim Soria to Milwaukee.

Medeiros’ first full year in Chicago’s farm system was far from a success, as he had a 5.10 ERA over 83 innings for Double-A Birmingham.  However, Medeiros saw much more work as a reliever than in the past, starting only nine of 28 games, and he fared much better out of the bullpen — a 2.55 ERA over 42 1/3 relief innings, as opposed to a 7.75 ERA over 40 2/3 frames as a starter.  This could hint at a new direction for Medeiros, who is still just 23 years old.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

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White Sox Announce Edwin Encarnacion Signing, Designate Kodi Medeiros

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The White Sox have formally announced their previously reported one-year contract with slugger Edwin Encarnacion, designating left-hander Kodi Medeiros for assignment in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Encarnacion will be guaranteed $12MM for the upcoming season, the team announced, and there’s a $12MM option for the 2021 season as well. That option comes with a $2MM buyout, meaning Encarnacion’s base salary for 2020 will land at $10MM. If the ChiSox pick up the option, he’d earn a total of $22MM over two seasons. Chicago agreed to terms with Encarnacion back on Dec. 24, but it seems that the holiday season delayed the finalization of the pact.

The 37-year-old Encarnacion becomes the latest official addition in an action-packed offseason that has seen the South Siders spend more than $200MM in free agency. Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez and Steve Cishek all join Encarnacion as open-market acquisitions. The organization has also extended Jose Abreu (three years, $50MM) and acquired Nomar Mazara in a trade with the Rangers, emphatically announcing their intent to emerge from a multi-year rebuilding effort.

Medeiros, 23, was a first-round pick by the Brewers back in 2014 (No. 12 overall) but made his way to the ChiSox in the 2018 trade that sent Joakim Soria from Chicago to Milwaukee. The Hawaiian-born southpaw repeated the Double-A level in 2019 but struggled through an ugly season in what was a very pitcher-friendly league. Through 83 innings of work, Medeiros logged a 5.10 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 5.5 BB/9 and a 36.1 percent grounder rate that marked a 14 percent drop from the previous season. Not only did Medeiros walk 51 hitters in his 83 innings (only one being intentional), he also plunked 11 batters and uncorked eight wild pitches.

All in all, it was a largely miserable season for the left-handed Medeiros, whom the White Sox now have a week to trade, release or place on outright waivers. He does have a pair of minor league options remaining, so perhaps another club will take a speculative flier in hopes of sorting out the former first-rounder’s control issues. But Medeiros’ 2019 struggles in his second trip through what should be a pitcher-friendly setting should give the Sox at least a chance of passing him through waivers and keeping him in the organization.

White Sox To Sign Steve Cishek

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The White Sox have reached a deal with free agent reliever Steve Cishek, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). He’ll be guaranteed $6MM in the pact, which per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) includes his 2020 salary and a $750K buyout of a $6.75MM option.

It’s a move that reflects the shifting tides of Chicago’s two sides. Cishek had stabilized the Cubs’ pen for the past two years. With his former team pressing up against its budget ceiling, he’ll cross town to take up a late-inning role with a White Sox organization that is hopeful of a breakout 2020 campaign.

Cishek has sidearmed his way through an awful lot of good innings over ten seasons in the majors. He has worked to a 2.69 ERA in 556 total frames and never once finished a full season with an ERA over 3.58. Having picked up 132 saves along the way, Cishek is no stranger to high-leverage spots.

Can the South Siders expect more of the same? There are conflicting signs. Cishek’s strikeout rate has wavered over time; last year’s 10.5% K%-BB% was a personal low. But he still generated grounders on half of the balls put in play against him, limited the long ball nearly as well as ever (at least compared to the league average), and held opponents to a sub-.250 BABIP for the fourth-straight season. Statcast identified some good fortune (.285 wOBA-against; .313 xwOBA-against) but found that Cishek was elite at limiting hard contact (25.9%) and exit velo (84.5 mph).

It’s ultimately hard to argue with the results, even if they haven’t always quite been supported by the peripherals. Cishek doesn’t throw hard but generates lots of spin. He’s an unconventional pitcher who has proven consistently capable of befuddling MLB hitters. He’s unquestionably better against same-handed hitters, though that’s true of most hurlers.

Cishek may not on the upswing at 33 years of age. But he’s a nice get on a one-year deal. That suits the needs of a White Sox organization that wants to boost its immediate chances without risking too much future payroll space on veteran players.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: Luis Robert’s Rookie Season

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The White Sox recently made their latest bold move in a winter full of them, signing center fielder Luis Robert to a six-year, $50MM extension last week. Although the 22-year-old Robert has never played above the Triple-A level, setting his price for the foreseeable future came off as a worthwhile risk by the White Sox. Those types of gambles have become a trend for the club, which took the same approach before last season in inking left fielder Eloy Jimenez to a six-year, $43MM guarantee. Because Chicago was no longer concerned about Jimenez’s service time after extending him, he predictably cracked its Opening-Day roster. As expected, Jimenez went on to further establish himself as an integral long-term building block for the White Sox.

The team no doubt expects Robert to follow Jimenez’s lead this year in cementing himself as a foundational piece. Odds are that Robert, like Jimenez last year, will get a chance to do so from Day 1 of the season. Assuming that’s the case, he’ll take over for the White Sox’s most common center fielders from 2019 – Leury Garcia and Adam Engel – as their primary option. Garcia and Engel combined for a a passable 2.1 fWAR last season, though they didn’t offer much at the plate, totaling an unimposing .269/.308/.379 batting line with 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases.

Considering Robert has no experience in the majors, there’s no guarantee he’ll outproduce Garcia and Engel in his first taste of the majors. On the other hand, as en elite prospect (MLB.com ranks him third in the game) who has run roughshod over high-minors pitching, Robert’s a legitimate candidate to begin his career with a flourish. Robert hadn’t played above High-A ball until last season, when he destroyed Double-A (.314/.362/.518 in 244 plate appearances) en route to a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte. There was no shortage of offense in the International League, but the .297/.341/.634 slash Robert registered in 223 attempts was still 36 percent better than the league’s average hitter, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric.

It’s too much to ask for Robert to hit that well in the majors this season, of course. Nevertheless, projections on his rookie season are bullish. For instance, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS system calls for 2.3 fWAR, a .265/.309/.455 line, 20 homers and 24 steals over 539 plate appearances. That would go down as a similar first full season to the one Nationals budding star center fielder Victor Robles recorded in 2019, an age-22, 617-PA campaign in which he posted 2.5 fWAR, slashed .255/.326/.419, swatted 17 HRs and stole 28 bases.

For the purpose of this poll, we’ll set the WAR over/under at ZiPS’ forecast, 2.3. Do you expect Robert to meet, exceed or fall short of that figure in 2020?

(Poll link for app users)

Rick Hahn, Luis Robert Discuss Extension

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  • In another of Thursday’s major news items, the White Sox locked up center field prospect Luis Robert to a six-year, $50MM guarantee. The two sides began negotiations back in September, and those talks gained steam at last month’s Winter Meetings, according to general manager Rick Hahn (via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). Now that Robert’s long-term future is settled, there’s no reason for the White Sox to worry about his service time, so it appears likely he’ll crack their roster out of camp. Robert’s fully confident that will happen. “I’m 100 percent convinced I’m going to be on the Opening Day roster,” the 22-year-old said.

White Sox Designate Tayron Guerrero

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The White Sox have designated right-hander Tayron Guerrero for assignment, the team announced. The move makes room for outfielder Luis Robert, whom the White Sox signed to a long-term contract Thursday.

This ends a very short run with the White Sox for the 28-year-old Guerrero, whom the White Sox claimed off waivers from the Marlins on Dec. 6. Although Guerrero’s average fastball approaches 100 mph, he hasn’t been effective in the majors since he debuted in 2016 with the Padres. Through 106 innings, including 46 in 2019, Guerrero has only managed a 5.77 ERA/5.08 FIP with 9.42 K/9 and 5.69 BB/9.

White Sox Sign Luis Robert To Long-Term Deal

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1:33pm: The White Sox have announced the contract. Robert will earn $1.5MM in 2020, $3.5MM in 2021, $6MM in 2022, $9.5MM in 2023, $12.5MM in 2024 and $15MM in 2025.

12:07pm: The White Sox have reached a long-term agreement with center field prospect Luis Robert, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The deal includes $50MM in guaranteed money over six years, and it features two club options, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The max value is $88MM over eight years, including $20MM club options for 2026-27 with $2MM buyouts in each of the two seasons, Passan adds. It’s a record-setting accord for a player who hasn’t yet debuted in the majors.

This will already be the second lucrative contract for the 22-year-old Robert, whom the White Sox signed out of Cuba for a $26MM bonus a couple months into the 2017 season. Robert has justified his payday since then, as he’s now regarded as one of the majors’ premier prospects. He ran roughshod over the high minors last season, batting .297/.341/.634 with 16 home runs in 223 plate appearances during his first (and maybe only) taste of Triple-A action.

As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently noted when exploring a potential extension for Robert, he’s the latest White Sox outfielder to land a new deal before ever playing in the majors. The club signed outfielder Eloy Jimenez to a six-year, $43MM pact – then a record for an early career extension – shortly before last season started. Jimenez has more than lived up to the decision so far, having finished 2019 among the majors’ most successful rookies.

The Robert pact gives the White Sox an extra year of control over him, as they’re now slated to keep him through 2027 instead of ’26. Plus, if all goes well, it could tamp down massive arbitration earnings for Robert. Regardless, the White Sox now have at least two-thirds of an extremely enviable young outfield between him and Jimenez. And if recent trade acquisition Nomar Mazara, 24, begins living up to his vast potential, Chicago could possess one of the sport’s premier outfields for the foreseeable future.

Now that there’s no need to manipulate his service time, it seems likely Robert will open 2020 as the White Sox’s everyday center fielder. So, for the most part, the team’s Opening-Day lineup for the upcoming season appears set. The White Sox also have Jimenez (left), Mazara (right), Yoan Moncada (third base) and Tim Anderson (shortstop) as key members of their young offensive core. Sluggers Jose Abreu and Edwin Encarnacion (DH/1B) and catcher Yasmani Grandal will supplement that group, with a potential-packed rotation set to consist of some combination of Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease, Gio Gonzalez, Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon.

Last decade was one to forget for the White Sox, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2008 or finished above .500 since 2012. But judging by general manager Rick Hahn’s actions this winter, including Robert’s contract, they’re all-in on changing their fortunes as early as this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Hahn: White Sox Have Payroll Space For Additional Moves

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The White Sox have signed Dallas Keuchel, Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion and Gio Gonzalez this winter, extended Jose Abreu and acquired Nomar Mazara in a trade with the Rangers. Even with those additions, GM Rick Hahn said on a conference call to introduce Keuchel today that he has space to add further players and is also planning to keep some resources set aside for midseason acquisitions (Twitter link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times).

Between Keuchel, Grandal, Encarnacion, Gonzalez and Abreu, the White Sox added $65MM in payroll to the 2020 books — to say nothing of a $5.7MM projected arbitration salary for Mazara. In all, they’ve doled out a guaranteed $195.5MM plus Mazara’s impending salary, wherever it may land.

It’s the most aggressive offseason from the Sox since a 2014-15 offseason that saw them spend a combined $134MM on David Robertson, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Zach Duke, Emilio Bonifacio and Gordon Beckham in addition to their acquisition of Jeff Samardzija. But even with this winter’s slate of additions, the Sox have just $122MM committed to next year’s payroll. That’s thanks largely to a young core of pre-arbitration or already-locked up talents, including Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Eloy Jimenez and Aaron Bummer.

That affordable crop of rising stars and the expected contributions from a slate of pre-arb players and top prospects — Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal — gives the Sox some long-term flexibility, too, although perhaps not quite as much as one would think. Chicago has $67MM on the books for 2021, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, not including arbitration salaries for Mazara, Moncada, Giolito, Bummer, Carlos Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez. And in 2022 they actually have more money on the books than in 2021 ($72.75MM), thanks to the backloaded nature of Abreu’s contract and some built-in raises in the Anderson and Jimenez extensions. Add in second-time arbitration raises for Moncada, Giolito and Bummer, and the Sox’ 2022 payroll could already be expected to come in north of $90MM.

None of that is to say that the Sox are facing some sort of logjam down the road, but speculatively speaking, those mounting long-term commitments could make a shorter-term pickup preferable when looking to augment the 2020 club. Hahn confirmed today what was reported last week (Twitter link via Van Schouwen): the Sox are looking to improve the team’s bullpen for the upcoming season. With most of the top relievers off the board, a short-term deal with a free agent along the lines of Will Harris or Steve Cishek (among many other still-available arms) seems to be a sensible pursuit. Surely the Sox will also explore the trade route as well when looking for relief reinforcements.

The exact route the ChiSox will take probably isn’t even clear to Hahn and his staff just yet, but today’s comments only reaffirm that the club isn’t done just yet.

White Sox Sign Dallas Keuchel

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The White Sox have taken their next step toward emerging from a lengthy rebuilding process, announcing Monday that they’ve signed free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel to a three-year deal worth a guaranteed $55.5MM. The Scott Boras client also has a fourth-year club/vesting option. Keuchel, the White Sox revealed, will earn $18MM annually, and the Sox hold a $1.5MM buyout on his 2023 option. His option will reportedly vest at $20MM if he pitches 160 innings in years two and three of the contract. Otherwise, it functions as a traditional club option.

Keuchel’s signing means there’s one less coveted gift to claim beneath the free agency tree for leaguewide GMs, but it should bring a good amount of cheer to South Side fans. The Sox have made a substantial investment in the soon-to-be-32-year-old, but he figures to slot in nicely as a steady, veteran presence in a rotation full of youthful upside.

Keuchel may never again regain the form that saw him capture a Cy Young Award back in 2015 with the Astros. That year saw him ride career-best strikeout and walk rates en route to a 2.48 ERA, but ensuing seasons have seen underlying indicators take a more bearish stance on his value. He hasn’t registered better than a 3.69 FIP since 2016, while his strikeout abilities have generally hovered around the 7.0 K/9 range during that same time frame. Never a hard thrower, Keuchel, a sinkerballer by trade, has seen his two-seamer lose almost two full ticks since registering an average speed of 90 mph back in ’15.

Of all the players to be impacted by last season’s free agency freeze, Keuchel may have been hit the hardest. Regardless of whether teams were scared off by early-offseason demands that may have been too optimistic, or simply wary of his age and declining metrics, it’s still fair to say that few foresaw a pitcher of Keuchel’s pedigree having to settle for a one-year, pro-rated June deal with the Braves that guaranteed him just $13MM. But, after a half-season in Atlanta that saw Keuchel perform to career averages with a 3.75 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.3 K/9 output in 112 2/3 innings, Chicago has finally given the lefty the long-term stability he’s been seeking.

Plus, it’s about time the White Sox proved able to land a higher-end free-agent starter to form a battery with Yasmani Grandal. They were said to be engaged seriously with Zack Wheeler and Jordan Lyles before those pitchers signed deals elsewhere that exceeded most outside expectations. Now, Keuchel provides their righty-heavy young rotation with, at worst, an innings-eating lefty with ample experience playing under the game’s brightest lights. With a beard, big frame, and heavy sinker, fans of the next winning Southside team may be forgiven for confusing Keuchel with ghosts of Mark Buehrle past.

Keuchel and the newly signed Gio Gonzalez promise to provide valuable mentorship to young arms like Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, and the mending Carlos Rodon. Giolito had something of a coming-out party in particular last season, but the truth is that every pitcher in that group may have only scratched the surface of their potential. Rodon’s impending return, in particular, should give the Chicago rotation an absolutely stolid look–it may not be the highest-priced rotation in the bigs, but it certainly is long on ace upside and bulldog mentality.

Speaking of prices: Keuchel’s deal makes him the second-highest-paid player (by average annual value) on the Chicago roster, after Grandal. MLBTR correctly predicted the lefty would land with the White Sox this offseason in our free agent predictions from November, but it seems the Boras Corporation was able to leverage interest in Keuchel well in excess of our expectations, as this deal lands safely above the three-year, $39MM contract we projected him to receive.

In addition to their previous deals with Grandal, Gonzalez, and Jose Abreu, this deal brings Chicago’s guarantees this offseason to $183.5MM in new money–before accounting for option years. Add in the projected $5.7MM award due to newly acquired Nomar Mazara and the Sox have come awfully close to supplementing their young core with $200MM in commitments.

It may not be the blockbuster-level deal Keuchel envisioned entering the 2018-19 offseason, nor is it in the same arena as the deals signed this offseason by Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or Zack Wheeler. What it seems to be rather, is a good click above deals guaranteed to other “mid-rotation” arms like Kyle Gibson (3/$30MM), Tanner Roark (2/$24MM), or Julio Teheran (1/$9MM) this winter—perhaps fair value considering both Keuchel’s Cy Young past and steady, if unspectacular, recent track record.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the terms (Twitter link). Bob Nightengale of USA Today added details on the vestting option (Twitter link).

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