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Phillies Actively Pursuing Zack Wheeler

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There’s momentum in the market for righty Zack Wheeler, who is reportedly already sitting on a nine-figure offer. The Phillies are now perhaps the strongest pursuer of the 29-year-old, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports.

With the Philadelphia organization firmly entering the picture, Wheeler is sitting in an enviable position. There are a host of other teams still in the picture. Olney cites the Reds, White Sox, and Rangers as remaining involved. We’ve previously heard of intense interest from the Twins, who were reportedly still in the picture as of yesterday.

In another report this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter) suggests that the Reds and White Sox are the other teams most clearly in the mix with the Phillies. But it’s still a fluid bidding situation, so far as is known publicly. Indeed, Rosenthal adds that the Angels “have shown real interest,” though their status at the moment isn’t clear.

This could be building into a perfect storm for Wheeler, whose big arm and relative youth hold obvious appeal. It seems teams have come to terms with his history of arm issues and are banking on a two-year track record of durability. In our ranking of the top 50 free agents, we predicted widespread interest to drive Wheeler to a five-year, $100MM deal with the Phillies. It now seems he will top that guarantee; Olney even floats the possibility that a team will end up offering a sixth year to land the in-demand hurler.

White Sox Re-Sign Ryan Burr, Caleb Frare

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The White Sox have re-signed right-hander Ryan Burr and lefty Caleb Frare to minor league contracts and invited them to Major League Spring Training, tweets Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Both were non-tendered yesterday but quickly rejoined the organization on new minor league pacts that don’t require the Sox to allocate a spot on the 40-man roster.

Burr, 25, pitched 19 2/3 innings for the ChiSox in 2019 and posted a 4.58 ERA with a 20-to-8 K/BB ratio and a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate in that time. He throws fairly hard, averaging 95 mph on his heater, but he wasn’t able to generate many swinging strikes in his limited time in the big leagues (8.4 percent). The Arizona State product was a star closer in college and has a strong minor league track record (2.02 ERA, 10.8 K/9 in 173 1/3 innings), so the Sox are surely glad to get him back in the organization as a depth piece.

Frare, meanwhile, has logged 9 2/3 innings with the Sox over the past two seasons with 12 punchouts against eight walks. The 26-year-old was acquired from the Yankees prior to the 2018 deadline in a swap that sent international funds to New York, but his 2019 campaign in Triple-A was the worst of his career. Frare whiffed an impressive 34 hitters in just 22 1/3 innings, but he also issued 19 walks, hit three batters and allowed five homers en route to a 7.33 ERA. He’s dominated up through Double-A in the minors and routinely posts big strikeout totals, however, so perhaps he can eventually unlock something more at the game’s top levels.

Dodgers, White Sox Have Had “Preliminary” Trade Talks On Joc Pederson

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For a second consecutive offseason, the White Sox are showing some interest in Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson, writes USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Last winter’s talks between the two sides (obviously) didn’t lead to a deal, but the Sox and Dodgers have once again “engaged in preliminary trade talks” surrounding Pederson, per the report.

Chicago’s need for a right fielder is evident just by looking up and down the roster, and GM Rick Hahn has clearly indicated that right field could be an area of focus this winter. Pederson would provide a short-term option for the Sox in that regard, as he’s entering his final season of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.5MM in 2020.

Pederson, 28 next April, hit .249/.339/.538 in 514 plate appearances with the Dodgers in 2019, belting a career-high 36 home runs along the way (although any home run totals from 2019 should be taken with a grain of salt, given the juiced ball and leaguewide home run boom). Both OPS+ and wRC+ regarded Pederson as 27 percent better than a league-average hitter — the third time in the past four years that he’s been to 25 to 28 percent better than average in the estimation of those park- and league-adjusted metrics. For a White Sox club that saw its right fielders post an astonishingly terrible .220/.277/.288 batting line in 2019, Pederson’s appeal isn’t hard to see.

That said, it’s also worth noting that Pederson has been used primarily as a platoon player, so he’s not exactly a cure-all to the White Sox’ ailments in right. The Dodgers afforded Pederson just 50 plate appearances against lefties in 2019, and in 375 career plate appearances against same-handed pitchers, he’s a .188/.263/.310 hitter. The Sox (or any other club) would surely need a right-handed-hitting complement for Pederson in 2020, but a part-time asset in that mold shouldn’t be too tough to unearth.

As for the Dodgers, their motivation for moving Pederson likely comes down to a potential outfield surplus. Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez are all viable option in the outfield, and Matt Beaty also saw time in left field after spending most of his minor league career as a corner infielder. Outfielder Kyle Garlick made his MLB debut in 2019 as well.

That’s not to say that Pederson is purely expendable, but the Dodgers’ outfield depth is a clear source of strength. And with Pederson set to hit the open market in a year’s time, flipping him for some help in another area of need — the bullpen, perhaps — while freeing up additional dollars to spend in free agency could be a sensible pursuit. That’d be all the more true were the front office to succeed in signing one of Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson, both of whom are reported to be of interest. A successful pursuit of either premium third baseman could push Justin Turner to first or second base, crowding the right side of the infield and making Bellinger even likelier to spend all of his time in the outfield. (Alternatively, it could make Turner himself a trade candidate.)

Of course, the Dodgers have perhaps the deepest pockets of any club in baseball, so there’s an argument that they should simply keep Pederson, pick up an additional high-end talent or two, and operate with an unparalleled level of depth in spite of the cost. But that hasn’t been this front office or ownership group’s preferred course of action in recent years; the Dodgers haven’t paid the luxury tax since 2016 and are currently about $29MM shy of the $208MM luxury barrier, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

Zack Wheeler Bidding Already In Nine Figures

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3:37pm: The White Sox are “willing” to push beyond the five-year, $100MM mark in order to sign Wheeler, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Whether they’ve actually made such an offer isn’t clear.

11:57am: It seems the Wheeler auction could be building to a crescendo. It’s possible and “maybe even probable” that he’ll sign before the Winter Meetings open next week, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

9:35am: Free agent righty Zack Wheeler is going to break the $100MM barrier with his next contract, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, Wheeler already has at least one offer in hand of at least $100MM.

MLBTR foresaw intense bidding for Wheeler entering the offseason, when we ranked him fourth in earning power among all free agents. It seems our prediction of five years and $100MM — aggressive at the time — will actually end up just on the light side. The question remains how far north of that figure Wheeler will roll.

Rosenthal lists the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays as teams with ongoing interest in Wheeler. That’s a non-exclusive list; quite a few other clubs have also been tied to the 29-year-old. The involvement of such organizations reflects the reason we were so bullish on Wheeler’s market entering the winter. Simply put, he checks a lot of boxes for a lot of teams.

It’ll cost draft compensation to sign Wheeler, but that’s not an overwhelming deterrent for a still-youthful player who possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff. Wheeler has been healthy for two seasons while maintaining a big heater and compelling peripherals. He threw 195 1/3 innings in 2019, which is quite a sum in this day and age. That’s a good sign for a pitcher who battled through health problems before a bounceback ’18 campaign. And it seems teams are taking the view that his 2019 ERA (3.96) doesn’t fully reflect his true talent level.

So how much is too much for a pitcher with Wheeler’s history of arm issues and less-than-perfect platform season? That’s what we may soon find out. But in thinking through his value, it’s worth recalling the broader market situation.

In terms of supply, Wheeler occupies an interesting position. He’s clearly not to the level of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but arguably possesses a much loftier ceiling — with a combination of premium stuff and relative youth — than any of the other available starters. Teams not interested in approaching or exceeding the $200MM level of spending have understandably zeroed in on Wheeler as a potential budget ace. And there’s no shortage of organizations with conceivable interest. Multiple big-spending contenders are chasing top arms along with the teams listed above.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline

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With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.

We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…

  • The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
  • Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
  • Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.

Earlier Moves

  • The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
  • Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
  • Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
  • The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
  • The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
  • Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
  • Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.

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White Sox Non-Tender Ryan Burr, Caleb Frare; Release Thyago Vieira

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The White Sox have completed some 40-man cleanup in advance of today’s non-tender deadline. The club has decided not to tender contracts to righty Ryan Burr and southpaw Caleb Frare.

Unsurprisingly, recently outrighted infielder Yolmer Sanchez was also non-tendered. Right-hander Thyago Vieira also departed the 40-man. He was released so that he can sign with Japan’s Yomiuri Giants, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets.

This run of moves opens multiple 40-man spots and trims some marginal relief depth from the Chicago roster. For a club that has made clear its designs on improving in the standings in 2020, there’s good reason to hope those slots can be put to more productive use.

Yolmer Sanchez Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency

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Nov. 27: Sanchez went unclaimed on waivers and will become a free agent, Rosenthal tweets. A formal announcement from the club should follow.

Nov. 25: The White Sox have outrighted infielder Yolmer Sanchez from their 40-man roster, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). MLBTR had projected him to earn $6.2MM in arbitration.

While he has at times been a solid contributor in Chicago, Sanchez is coming off of a rough 2019 season at the plate. There are quite a few veteran alternatives available in free agency, making it tough to pay that kind of cash to retain him.

Sanchez has been trusted with quite a lot of playing time on the South Side of late, appearing in over 140 games in each of the past three seasons. But his offensive output has declined steadily in that span, dropping from a .267/.319/.413 batting line and 95 wRC+ in 2017 — that is, five percent below league average — to last year’s .252/.318/.321 slash and 74 wRC+.

While Sanchez has maintained the same general strikeout and walk levels all along — he’s a bit below the league average with both his career 7.5% walk rate and 21.0% strikeout rate — his power has fallen off a cliff. Sanchez went from a dozen home runs and a .147 isolated power mark in 2017 to just two dingers and a .069 ISO in 2019.

What hasn’t changed is Sanchez’s excellent glovework. Whether utilized at second or third base, he has graded as a top-notch performer — even winning a Gold Glove Award for his work at second base in 2019. That makes him a strong candidate to find a landing spot as a utility piece. Barring a big upswing at the plate, however, it’s hard to imagine Sanchez as a regular lineup piece on a team with designs on immediate contention. If and when he does land elsewhere, he’ll be controllable through the 2021 season via arbitration.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

Having completed a three-season rebuilding period, the White Sox must make significant additions and field a competitive team in 2020.  With the Yasmani Grandal signing, they’ve already got a strong early start.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: $73MM through 2023
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: $50MM through 2022.
  • Kelvin Herrera, RP: $9.5MM through 2020.  Includes club option for 2021.
  • Eloy Jimenez, LF: $37MM through 2024.  Includes club options for 2025 and ’26.
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $21.75MM through 2022.  Includes club options for 2023 and ’24.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

In the three weeks since the World Series ended, the White Sox have already made several notable offseason moves.  The first was to ship catcher Welington Castillo to the Rangers, giving up $250K in international bonus pool space as a way of saving $500K in real money in the form of Castillo’s buyout.  As James Fegan of The Athletic wrote, the question is “why a seemingly paltry amount of the major-league payroll is being prioritized over a significant portion of the international bonus pool,” as this is not the first time the White Sox have done so.  To hear White Sox Senior Vice President/General Manager Rick Hahn tell it, the team’s international staff did not have any further signings they wanted to make, so he then set out to exchange the club’s bonus pool space for some benefit.  The shedding of international bonus pool space invited skepticism in some corners, including from Jim Margalus of Sox Machine.

As this outlook was in progress, the White Sox signed the #7 free agent on the market, catcher Yasmani Grandal, to a four-year, $73MM deal.  The contract surpasses Abreu for the largest in franchise history, a major commitment to a player who fits the team like a glove.  The Sox have added perhaps the best hitter and pitch framer among all MLB catchers.  And unlike last year’s failed pursuit of Manny Machado, Hahn and company proved that they actually are willing and able to win the bidding on a top free agent.  While he’s not a $300MM player, Grandal offers a huge boost behind the plate over incumbent James McCann, perhaps on the order of four additional wins in 2020.  McCann could stay on as a somewhat overqualified backup for Grandal (he did make the All-Star team this year), but he becomes a pretty clear trade candidate, especially given Zack Collins’ bond with Grandal.

Earlier this month the White Sox made the fairly reasonable decision to give Jose Abreu a qualifying offer, which served the dual purpose of cementing their longstanding interest in retaining him, and of creating a drag on the idea of another team signing him.  The widely expected multiyear agreement didn’t happen by the November 14th deadline for Abreu, so the player chose to accept the strong $17.8MM salary on a one-year deal for 2020.  At that point first base was filled for 2020, and the White Sox didn’t have to commit beyond Abreu’s age-33 season.  Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf can be loyal to a fault, however, and the team chose to overwrite that one-year deal with a three-year, $50MM pact that surely had much to do with Abreu’s clubhouse presence as his production at the plate.  Chalk this one up as a win for Abreu, who was unlikely to find this level of a contract on the open market.  Should White Sox fans complain?  Only to the extent that Abreu’s unnecessary new deal prevents them from upgrading the rest of the roster, which doesn’t seem likely at least this offseason.

One other notable move happened this week, with the club removing second baseman Yolmer Sanchez from the 40-man roster.  Sanchez seemed unlikely to make it past Monday’s non-tender deadline anyway, but now the path is clear for prospect Nick Madrigal.

Due to the team committing over $123MM before Thanksgiving, this is beginning to read more like an offseason review than an outlook.  However, there’s plenty of speculation left to do.  One clear remaining area of upgrade for the White Sox is right field.  While there’s a slight preference for left-handed bats, perhaps the addition of a switch-hitter like Grandal reduces that.  Options in free agency include Nicholas Castellanos, Kole Calhoun, and Yasiel Puig.  Both Marcell Ozuna and Eloy Jimenez seem limited to left field, making Ozuna a difficult fit.  Nor have Corey Dickerson or Brett Gardner played much right field.  On the trade market, one consideration is Mookie Betts, a potentially huge one-year rental if Hahn could pry him loose from the Red Sox.  Perhaps of equal or greater acquisition cost would be the Mariners’ Mitch Haniger, who is under control for three more seasons.  The trade market could also offer Josh Reddick, Nomar Mazara, Stephen Piscotty, and Hunter Renfroe, none of whom would be considered a clear upgrade.

The Sox are also wide open at designated hitter, and a few interesting options abound if the team is willing to use the spot mostly for one player.  Chicago was considered the speculative favorite for J.D. Martinez if he’d chosen to opt out, with the thinking that the Red Sox wouldn’t necessarily have minded gaining relief from Martinez’s contract.  If the White Sox indeed like Martinez, I wonder if they’d attempt to take him and his three-year, $62.5MM commitment off Boston’s hands.  One issue could be Martinez’s ability to opt out after the 2020 season, which brings downside risk for the White Sox.  It’s also plausible that the White Sox could attempt to use their financial flexibility to acquire Khris Davis and most of his $33.5MM commitment from Oakland.  A simpler move would be to simply sign a free agent who could be plugged in as a regular DH, such as Edwin Encarnacion or Hunter Pence.

The White Sox will almost certainly add starting pitching this winter, with Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, and Reynaldo Lopez penciled in plus interesting options like Carlos Rodon and Michael Kopech.  Even with Jake Odorizzi off the board, the free agent market is flush with options.  Though they’ve never given out a $100MM contract, the White Sox have at least attempted to dole out a $200MM deal, and they could certainly compete on Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg if Reinsdorf so chooses.  They’re also viable suitors for Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, Cole Hamels, and just about any other free agent.  Signing Grandal early could have a benefit here: the White Sox have signaled they’re not messing around, and presumed “contenders only” names like Bumgarner, Ryu, and Hamels could get on board.  The trade market doesn’t appear overwhelming, but certainly a Matthew Boyd, Chris Archer, or Jon Gray would be attainable for the Sox.  If you want to get a little more fantastical with trade ideas, we can again speculate on financially bailing out the Red Sox, with David Price or even Chris Sale.  The White Sox re-acquiring Sale would be particularly entertaining, but with a $145MM commitment and an elbow injury ending his season in August, it’s the ultimate long shot.

Like most teams, the White Sox could also stand to improve their bullpen.  Colome, Herrera, and Aaron Bummer are guaranteed spots, while Evan Marshall and Jimmy Cordero will surely be in the mix.  It remains to be seen how aggressively the White Sox will address the bullpen given their other needs, though the Braves have already scooped up Will Smith and Chris Martin from the top end of the free agent market.  Plus, the Sox already can expect to pay Colome and Herrera around $19MM for their 2020 efforts.

Even after signing Grandal and Abreu, their projected commitments sit around $80MM.  With so many big-market teams crying poor this winter, the White Sox are in excellent position to add several more impact free agents and make a major push into contention for 2020 and beyond.

White Sox Outright Daniel Palka

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The White Sox announced today that they have outrighted outfielder Daniel Palka (via MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, on Twitter). He was designated recently to clear roster space for the signing of Yasmani Grandal.

Palka, 28, turned in a solid showing at the plate in his 2018 debut. While he went down on strikes 153 times in 449 plate appearances and ended with a .294 on-base percentage, he delivered enough power (27 home runs, .484 slugging percentage) to be an above-average overall performer with the bat.

Trouble was, Palka wasn’t up to the task in the outfield, where he graded quite poorly. He needed to make further strides in one or both areas to lock up a roster spot. Instead, he struggled badly in limited MLB chances in 2019, posting an awful .107/.194/.179 slash in 93 trips to the plate.

Some team will still gladly offer the powerful Palka a non-roster invitation on a minors deal. Notably, he showed improved plate discipline during his time at Triple-A in 2019. Offense was up everywhere, so there’s no reason to get carried away with the .900 OPS and 27 dingers he delivered at Charlotte. But Palka has never before managed a K/BB mix like the 109 strikeouts and 72 walks he tallied in 471 plate appearances.

White Sox Extend Jose Abreu

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The White Sox announced that they’ve agreed to a three-year, $50MM contract with first baseman Jose Abreu. The 32-year-old slugger had previously accepted a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer, effectively making this a two-year, $32.2MM extension.

Jose Abreu | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Under the new contract, Abreu will receive a $5MM signing bonus and an $11MM salary in 2020 before being paid $16MM in 2021 and $18MM in 2022. Four million dollars of that 2022 salary will be deferred, according to the team. Abreu is represented by ISE Baseball.

In signing Abreu to this type of extension, the White Sox are effectively betting (in a fairly substantial manner) on a rebound in his age-33 season next year. That’s not to say that Abreu had a poor 2019 campaign; he batted .284/.330/.503 with 33 home runs and was a decidedly above-average hitter overall. But unlike his 2014-17 production, Abreu’s output in 2018-19 has been more good than it has been great. Park- and league-adjusted measures such as OPS+ (119) and wRC+ (117) agree that he’s been nearly 20 percent better than a league-average hitter in that span, but that’s a far cry from the premium levels at which Abreu produced from 2014-17 — particularly in his brilliant 2014 rookie campaign, when he was arguably the best hitter in baseball.

The open market simply hasn’t rewarded players of this age and skill set in recent years, and it’s unlikely that Abreu would’ve had this type of earning power next winter without returning to his previous levels of excellence with the bat. Given the fact that Abreu has never been rated as a strong defensive first baseman and isn’t likely to make considerable improvements as he progresses deeper into his mid-30s, an uptick at the plate is all the more important.

All of that said, it’s also undeniable that Abreu has emerged as the heart of the White Sox in recent years. The front office, ownership and teammates alike have lauded Abreu for his leadership and the manner in which he mentors young players as they arrive on the scene. He’s also a fixture in the community on the south side of Chicago and is generally beloved by Sox fans. All of that surely factors in when pricing out a deal and is particularly likely to resonate with owner Jerry Reinsdorf, who has been vocal about his desire to keep Abreu in a Sox uniform (as has GM Rick Hahn).

From a financial standpoint, the new structure of the deal does give the Sox a bit of extra breathing room when constructing the 2020 roster. Assuming that signing bonus still counts against the 2020 ledger, they’re now at about $93.7MM in projected salary when factoring in projected arbitration payouts. Parting with either Yolmer Sanchez or James McCann, who was displaced as the team’s starting catcher by yesterday’s Yasmani Grandal signing, would create further flexibility. Sanchez is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $6.2MM in 2020, while McCann’s projection checks in at $4.9MM.

The extent to which Reinsdorf is willing to spend on the 2020 roster isn’t definitively known by anyone outside of the White Sox’ top decision-makers, but they’re currently about $30MM shy of their record Opening Day payroll mark ($128MM in 2011) — a number that could jump to $40MM depending on the fate of Sanchez and McCann. The Sox now have about $46MM in guaranteed money on the books for the 2021 season and about $53MM on the books in 2020

That leaves them plenty of latitude for an additional long-term signing — particularly since key young players like Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez are already locked into long-term deals that provide cost certainty. They’ll still need to budget for pricey arbitration salaries for both Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito beginning in 2021, however, meaning multiple long-term additions will begin to clog up the books in a hurry. But if ownership is willing to push payroll beyond its previously established heights moving forward, it’s certainly plausible that the Sox could have more than one addition up their sleeve between now and Opening Day. The club is hopeful of adding both a right fielder and a starting pitcher to the mix, so further additions do indeed seem likely, although either could come on a shorter-term arrangement.

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