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Non-Tender Candidate: Phil Humber

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Five months ago it appeared that Phil Humber could be on the cusp of a breakout season. He had just pitched a perfect game in Seattle, striking out nine Mariners on day that his fastball sat in the 90-95 mph range. Since then Humber has allowed 72 earned runs, including 23 home runs, in 87 2/3 innings. There’s no guarantee the White Sox will tender him a contract this offseason when he’s arbitration eligible for the first time.

Phil Humber - White Sox (PW)

The White Sox selected Humber off waivers in January of 2011 and he responded with a solid season, pitching 163 innings with a 3.75 ERA and three times as many strikeouts as walks. The right-hander’s numbers have dropped off considerably in 2012. He has a 6.44 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and a 34.9% ground ball rate in 102 innings this year. Humber’s average fastball velocity is 90.5 mph and he has a swinging strike rate of 7.8%. He has been exceptionally homer-prone, allowing 23 home runs, or 2.0 per nine innings.

Humber started the year in Chicago’s rotation, spent a month on the disabled list with a strained elbow midseason, and lost his rotation spot in early August. He has been pitching out of the bullpen since, but Robin Ventura has used Humber sparingly in September, another indication that the White Sox don’t count him among the organization’s most dependable arms.

Humber, who turns 30 in December, could obtain a salary in the $2MM range if the White Sox tender him a contract this coming offseason. The perfect game wouldn't make a major difference in an arbitration hearing, but his 2011 season was a strong one, and he has more than 300 MLB innings. Perhaps last year’s success would be enough to create some trade interest in Humber, the third overall selection in 2004.

Still, the White Sox don’t appear to view Humber as a $2MM player. If they considered him an essential part of their pitching staff, they’d have asked him to pitch more than twice this month. It means a season that began with a perfect game could end with a non-tender.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Heyman On Hamilton, Upton, Peavy, Victorino

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Earlier today, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com checked in with an American League executive to get his predictions on what kind of deals this winter's top free agents might get.  Here are some highlights..

  • The exec sees Josh Hamilton getting a five-year, $150MM deal, giving him a guaranteed average annual value of $30MM and eclipsing the record set by Alex Rodriguez's ten-year, $275MM pact.  The Rangers aren't known for giving out excessively-long deals, meaning that he would likely have to take five years to stay in Texas.  One person in the know wondered if the Rangers would even go to five to keep the outfielder.
  • Executives believe that the Rays will make the qualifying offer of around $13MM for B.J. Upton as his nice all-around season should net him at least a four-year deal elsewhere.  The exec sees $60MM over five years for Upton, but Heyman notes that it's a pretty good center field market with Michael Bourn and Shane Victorino also out there.
  • White Sox pitcher Jake Peavy could get a two year deal worth $25-30MM in the opinion of the AL exec.  Heyman adds that it isn't hard to see the Dodgers making a play for Peavy after years of watching him dominate for the Padres.
  • The executive thinks Dodgers outfielder Shane Victorino could fetch a two-year, $25MM deal and Heyman sees the Nationals, Mets, Braves, Phillies, and Giants as possible fits.  However, he'll have to lower his expectations after originally seeking a five-year deal.
  • The AL exec sees Angels pitcher Zack Greinke getting $125MM over six years.  Nats pitcher Edwin Jackson is in line for a four-year, $55MM deal, according to the exec, though Heyman thinks he'll get less. 

2013 Vesting Options Update

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With two weeks left in the season, here's an update on the various vesting options for 2013 from around the league…

  • Brett Myers, White Sox — $10MM option vests with 45 games finished or based on a points system. Myers has finished 39 total games this season and the ChiSox have 12 games remaining. This one is unlikely to vest but is still possible.
  • Kevin Gregg — $6MM option vests with 50 games finished. Gregg finished only 13 games before the Orioles released him last weekend.
  • Jason Bartlett — $5.5MM option vests with 432 plate appearances. Bartlett came to the plate just 98 times with the Padres before hurting his knee and getting released last month. Like Gregg's, this one won't vest.

Chipper Jones has an option worth $9MM+ that will vest with 123 games played, but he's already rendered the option moot by announcing his plans to retire after the season. He recently said that he won't change his mind about retirement despite his strong play as well. Chipper has played in 103 of the Braves' 151 games, so this one isn't even mathematically possible anymore.

Alex Gonzalez has an option worth $4MM that will vest with 525 plate appearances, but he missed the majority of the season with a torn ACL. Gonzalez came to the plate just 89 times before the injury, so the Brewers do not have to worry about this one kicking in.

White Sox To Promote Williams; Hahn To Be GM

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5:43pm: Williams didn't comment on Nightengale's report, telling reporters (including CSNChicago.com's Dan Hayes) that the club is focused on the playoff race and won't discuss contract issues until the offseason.

3:03pm: The White Sox will promote their top two baseball executives following a surprising season that has the team leading its division. The team is expected to promote longtime general manager Kenny Williams to the role of vice president of baseball operations and shift assistant GM Rick Hahn into the GM role, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.

Williams has been Chicago's GM since the end of the 2000 season. He is the fifth longest tenured general manager in baseball, behind only Brian Sabean (Giants), Billy Beane (Athletics), Brian Cashman (Yankees) and Dan O'Dowd (Rockies).The White Sox have reached the playoffs twice under Williams; they won the 2005 World Series and won the AL Central in 2008. Chicago entered Thursday's games with a 81-67 record and a two game lead over the Tigers in the AL Central.

Hahn featured prominently on MLBTR's list of GM candidates last summer. He was considered for general manager jobs last offseason, including one with the Cubs.

White Sox Expected To Decline Peavy’s Option

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The White Sox have signaled to Jake Peavy that they’re unlikely to exercise their $22MM club option for 2013, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Instead, the team is expected to pay a $4MM buyout in a move that would make Peavy a free agent.

The White Sox might try to re-sign Peavy after declining the option, but it seems likely he’ll reach the free agent market. Peavy enjoys playing for the White Sox and would like to return, agent Barry Axelrod told Heyman. The right-hander prefers manager Robin Ventura to former manager Ozzie Guillen and appears to have favorable feelings about the White Sox, Heyman reports.

Peavy could be the second best free agent starting pitcher behind Zack Greinke this offseason (FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement suggests as much). Peavy, 31, has a 3.26 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 36.8% ground ball rate in 198 2/3 innings this year. The shoulder problems that limited him to approximately 100 innings per season from 2009-11 no longer appear to be holding him back.

The White Sox could raise payroll for 2013, especially if they make the playoffs. However, they aren’t currently discussing new contracts with prospective free agents A.J. Pierzynski, Brett Myers, Francisco Liriano and Kevin Youkilis, Heyman reports.

Rosenthal On Pierzynski, Ortiz, Cardinals, Marlins

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Here's a look at the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..

  • A.J. Pierzynski is in a slump but all in all, he's having a strong year at the age of 35 and could be an interesting name on the open market.  The Yankees could have interest if they look to replace Russell Martin, the Marlins could look to reunite him with Ozzie Guillen and Mark Buehrle, and the Dodgers were close to signing him after the 2010 season.  As for the White Sox, no one knows what direction they'll head in, but price could be a major factor.  The catcher is making $6MM this year.
  • David Ortiz accepted arbitration from the Red Sox last season to take himself off of the open market, but this year could be a different story.  This would be a smart time for him to reject a one-year deal and pursue a multi-year contract with leverage on his side.  Both the Yankees and Blue Jays could have interest in him as a DH.
  • The Cardinals are unlikely to re-sign Kyle Lohse, who should be one of the top starters available this winter.  They also are unlikely to overpay on an extension for Adam Wainwright, who has one year left on his contract.  St. Louis has a glut of talented starters both in the majors and waiting in the wings and is against locking up too much money in the rotation long-term.
  • The Marlins' top front office execs are signed through 2015 but other clubs say owner Jeffrey Loria is considering a major shakeup.  Team president David Samson told Rosenthal that they'll go through their usual evaluations after the season and take a hard look at everyone, but he added that it is only September 1st and they'll won't get into it until after the season.

Outrighted To Triple-A: Moskos, Duncan

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The latest outright assignments from around MLB… 

  • The White Sox outrighted left-hander Daniel Moskos to Triple-A, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports (on Twitter). Moskos has spent the entire season at Triple-A and posted a 4.05 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9 in 33 1/3 innings for the top affiliates of the Pirates and White Sox this year.
  • The Indians announced that they outrighted outfielder Shelley Duncan to Triple-A. They had designated the 32-year-old for assignment two days ago after he posted a .203/.288/.388 batting line with 11 homers.

AL Central Notes: Acta, Myers, Francoeur

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Bob Feller made his first Major League start on this day in 1936 and immediately set the tone for his Hall of Fame career.  Feller struck out 15 St. Louis Browns hitters, falling just short of the then-AL record of 16 strikeouts in a game.  Perhaps the most impressive stat from Feller's first start was his age — Rapid Robert was just 17 years old.

Here are some items from Feller's former team in Cleveland and elsewhere in the AL Central…

  • The Indians' roster construction is to blame for the team's recent woes, not manager Manny Acta, opines Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  Indians CEO Paul Dolan said today that Acta's job is safe for 2013, as well as the jobs of GM Chris Antonetti and team president Mark Shapiro.
  • Brett Myers' $10MM contract option for 2013 will vest if he finishes 45 games this season, but White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper tells MLB.com's Scott Merkin that the team will use Myers in any manner necessary as the club battles for the AL Central title.  Myers currently has 36 games finished, seven since joining the White Sox on July 21.  Addison Reed will finish the majority of games down the stretch as the Sox closer, but Myers figures to be the backup closing option should Reed get injured or become ineffective.
  • Royals officials tell Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star that Wil Myers might not be called up this season so the Royals can avoid having to protect him (and leave someone else unprotected) in the Rule 5 draft.  Two team officials also think Myers may yet not quite be ready for Major League pitching, despite his .927 OPS in 388 Triple-A plate appearances this season.
  • With Myers in Triple-A, Jeff Francoeur is still the incumbent right fielder.  Dutton reports that the Royals would like to deal Francoeur but aren't willing to do so in a salary dump or for a negligible return.
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