“Several teams” have interest in Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. That isn’t at all surprising in the wake of the late-November news that the Reds will at least listen to offers for Gray. General manager Nick Krall suggested later that he isn’t in a hurry to trade Gray away, but it does seem the Reds are in payroll-cutting mode, evidenced by Monday’s trade that sent reliever Raisel Iglesias to the Angels. Gray only has a guaranteed $20MM left on his contract over the next two years, but his performance in 2020 should help make it easier for the Reds to garner a major return in a deal if they do decide to move him. The 31-year-old ended the season with 56 innings of 3.70 ERA/3.05 FIP ball, 11.57 K/9 against 4.18 BB/9, and a 51.1 percent groundball rate.
Reds Rumors
National League Non-Tenders
With revenue losses expected to result in reduced payrolls around baseball, a larger number of players than usual are expected to be let go by their current teams by tonight’s 7pm CT non-tender deadline. Some of these players could end up re-signing with their teams for salaries below what they were projected (by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) to earn through the arbitration process, or teams could end up simply opting to explore other options…with many of those options arriving on the market through this same non-tender process.
You can track all of the arbitration and non-tender activity here, and we’ll also run through the list of National League players who have been let go in this post.
- Southpaw Tyler Anderson was cut loose by the Giants, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The 30-year-old had a high-variability arbitration situation this year after turning in a solid bounceback effort in San Francisco. Anderson ended the season with 59 2/3 innings of 4.37 ERA ball, with 6.2 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9. The club also non-tendered infielder Daniel Robertson, Tim Dierkes of MLBTR tweets, as well as righties Melvin Adon and Rico Garcia, and catcher Chadwick Tromp, per Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group.
Earlier Non-Tenders
- The Cardinals non-tendered righty John Brebbia and outfielder Rangel Ravelo, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets. Brebbia had played a significant role in the St. Louis pen for his first three MLB campaigns but is still recovering from mid-2020 Tommy John surgery.
- Right-handed reliever Clay Holmes has been non-tendered by the Pirates, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was among those to cover on Twitter. The 27-year-old hurler made it into just one MLB contest in 2020 owing to a forearm injury.
- The Marlins have decided not to tender a contract to righty Ryne Stanek, Craig Mish of Sports Grid first tweeted. He joins fellow right-hander Jose Urena in departing via non-tender. (Urena had already been designated for assignment.) Stanek, 29, struggled with the free pass in limited action this year but has been a quality, high-strikeout arm in the past and could be an interesting name to watch on the open market.
- In addition to Shreve, the Mets announced the non-tenders of righties Ariel Jurado, Paul Sewald, and Nick Tropeano.
- The Mets will not tender a contract to left-handed reliever Chasen Shreve, Robert Murray of FanSided tweets. Shreve performed reasonably well in 2020, logging a 3.96 ERA/3.99 FIP with 12.24 K/9 and 4.32 BB/9 in 25 innings, but the Mets will nonetheless move on instead of paying him around $1MM in arbitration.
- The Padres won’t tender a contract to infielder Greg Garcia, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). Garcia, 31, posted a woeful .200/.279/.250 batting line in 2020, albeit in a tiny sample of 71 plate appearances. In parts of two seasons with the Friars, he slashed .240/.351/.337, but the team opted not to give him a raise on last year’s $1.5MM salary.
- The Reds have non-tendered outfielder Brian Goodwin, he announced on Twitter (hat tip to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). Goodwin, whom the Reds acquired from the Angels over the summer, slashed .215/.299/.417 with six home runs and five stolen bases over 164 plate appearances between the teams in 2020. He was due to earn a projected $2.7MM to $3.6MM in arbitration.
- The Cubs have told Jose Martinez he isn’t being tendered a contract, ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers reports (Twitter link). Acquired from the Rays in a deadline deal, Martinez went hitless over 22 plate appearances with Chicago, only reaching base once on a walk. The 32-year-old mashed for the Cardinals from 2016-18, but delivered closer to league-average production in 2019 with St. Louis and with the Rays last season prior to the trade.
Reds Non-Tender Archie Bradley
7:23pm: The Reds have already re-signed Farmer to a new one-year, Major League contract. His non-tender was likely something of a procedural move, allowing the team to bring him back on friendlier terms, but he’s back on the 40-man roster for the 2021 season already.
7:00pm: The Reds announced Wednesday that they’ve non-tendered right-hander Archie Bradley, whom they acquired from the D-backs prior to the 2020 trade deadline. He joins fellow trade acquisition Brian Goodwin as well as catcher Curt Casali, righty R.J. Alaniz and infielder/catcher Kyle Farmer among Cincinnati non-tenders.
The 28-year-old Bradley, a former first-round pick and elite pitching prospect, couldn’t have pitched much better for the Reds after being acquired. He totaled 7 2/3 innings during the regular season and allowed just a run on four hits and no walks with six punchouts. He did yield a run in his lone postseason appearance, but it’s somewhat unexpected to see the Reds cut ties with him rather than pay him a raise on 2020’s $4.1MM salary.
While it won’t be a kind free-agent market for right-handed relievers, Bradley seems positioned to do better than most of his non-tendered counterparts. Since moving to the ’pen full-time back in 2017, he’s been outstanding; in 234 2/3 innings, most of it spent as the D-backs’ closer, Bradley has a 2.95 ERA with averages of 9.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 0.7 HR/9. That’s all come while playing his home games in a decidedly hitter-friendly setting.
Bradley did see his fastball velocity dip to an average of 94.4 mph this year — about two miles below its peak in 2018 — which could be a red flag. But the Reds thought enough of him to trade for him as part of a playoff push at the deadline, and Bradley won’t turn 29 until next August.
Casali has been a productive part-time backstop for the Reds over the past three seasons, hitting .260/.345/.440. He was only owed a raise on a $1.4625MM salary, which seems like it should’ve been a reasonable price, but most clubs are striving to pare back payroll, and backup catcher is clearly a spot the Reds felt they could do so.
Goodwin’s non-tender was reported earlier in the day and comes as less of a surprise after his bat took a step back from his solid 2019 levels. The 29-year-old Alaniz didn’t pitch in the Majors in 2020 and wasn’t arb-eligible, so his non-tender was simply because the Reds simply wanted an extra 40-man spot.
Reds Prioritizing Shortstop
With 2020 starter Freddy Galvis now on the open market, the Reds are prioritize adding a starting shortstop this offseason, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets.
This isn’t surprising news regarding the Reds, whose incumbent shortstop, Jose Garcia, didn’t play above the High-A level before the team promoted him in late August. The 22-year-old Garcia then batted a weak .194/.206/.194 (3 wRC+) in 68 plate appearances. Garcia could still be the Reds’ long-term answer at the position, but he doesn’t seem worthy of landing the job in the near term. General manager Nick Krall even admitted earlier this month that short is a position the Reds are aiming to address.
Fortunately for Cincinnati, which is coming off its first playoff berth since 2013, it should be able to find a replacement for Garcia before next season. Aside from Galvis, free agency features ex-Red Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Ha-Seong Kim and Andrelton Simmons. None of those players should come at exorbitant prices, but if the Reds are in the mood for a blockbuster trade, the Indians’ Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story could be on their radar.
Angels, Giants, Reds Among Teams Interested In Dan Straily
Right-hander Dan Straily dropped completely off the MLB radar following a dismal 2019 showing with the Orioles — a season that saw him surrender 52 earned runs in just 47 2/3 big league innings. Interest in the righty was tepid, and he opted to take a guaranteed $1MM deal with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization over a nonguaranteed deal with an MLB club.
That move could wind up paying dividends for Straily, who’ll turn 32 next Tuesday. Sportsgrid’s Craig Mish reports that the veteran righty is receiving interest from MLB and KBO clubs alike, with the Angels, Giants and Reds among the Major League teams to have reached out. Straily is aiming to decide between a return to the Majors and another season (or seasons) in South Korea as soon as next week, per the report.
Straily’s return to the market this winter comes under vastly different circumstances. While he was coming off the worst season of his professional career a year ago, Straily recently wrapped an outstanding debut campaign in the KBO. In 31 starts, Straily totaled 194 frames and pitched to a 2.50 ERA and 2.97 FIP, averaging 9.5 strikeouts, 2.4 walks and 0.46 home runs per nine innings pitched. It was a remarkable turnaround for the well-traveled right-hander — one that seems to have restored some confidence in his ability to navigate a Major League lineup.
The 2019 season was such a struggle for Straily that it’s easy to forget he’s not far removed from being a perfectly serviceable rotation piece in the Majors. From 2016-18, Straily pitched in 90 games for the Reds and Marlins, working to a collective 4.03 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 1.49 HR/9. Fielding-independent marks were less bullish on the righty (4.83 FIP, 4.89 xFIP) due in some part to a .261 average on balls in play that was well below the league average and a 77.9 percent strand rate that was well north of average. It’s fair to say that Straily probably did benefit from some good fortune, but extreme fly-ball pitchers like him are generally able to sustain lower BABIPs; his .261 mark over that three-year term is right in line with his career .267 mark.
Also working in Straily’s favor is the simple fact that he should be affordable if he opts to return from the KBO. It’s possible he could command a multi-year pact with a modest annual salary, but many teams are likely hoping to ink him on a one-year deal, perhaps with some incentives to help boost his annual value. He’d surely be able to generate multi-year interest in the KBO or perhaps in NPB at this point, though a successful big league return is the most lucrative potential path forward.
Reds GM Nick Krall Discusses Pitching Staff
Reds general manager Nick Krall recently discussed the team’s pitching outlook for 2021 with reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The baseball operations head said he wouldn’t rule out a reunion with top free agent Trevor Bauer but reiterated that the parties “haven’t really had substantial conversations” to this point.
Should Bauer depart, the Reds have no shortage of arms who could compete for rotation spots behind Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Wade Miley. Recently-acquired Jeff Hoffman could be in that mix, as are Tejay Antone and Michael Lorenzen. Krall also pointed to former top prospect José De León, who struggled in five relief appearances last season but saw his velocity spike into the mid-90’s and remains on the 40-man roster. Brandon Bailey, acquired from the Astros last week, also has starting experience in the minors but is seen as more of a bullpen option for Cincinnati, Krall said.
Of course, there’s also been some discussion of a possible Gray trade. Krall didn’t deny reports the organization is listening to offers on Gray. He did, however, downplay the significance, suggesting those discussions were mostly due diligence. It certainly remains possible another team bowls the Reds over with an offer in the coming months, but Nightengale suggests the most likely outcome is that Gray stays put into next season.
Rockies, Reds Swap Jeff Hoffman For Robert Stephenson
In a challenge trade of sorts, the Rockies and Reds have agreed to swap a pair of former top pitching prospects. The two clubs agreed to a trade Wednesday sending right-hander Jeff Hoffman and minor league righty Case Williams from Colorado to Cincinnati in exchange for right-hander Robert Stephenson and minor league outfielder Jameson Hannah. The Reds have formally announced the swap.
Hoffman, 28 in January, was the ninth overall pick by the Blue Jays in the 2014 draft and went to the Rockies as the centerpiece of the blockbuster deadline swap that shipped Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto. The hope at the time of the deal was that the former East Carolina University ace could develop into a key front-of-the-rotation piece at the ever-challenging Coors Field, but that simply hasn’t panned out.
Hoffman has logged Major League innings in each of the past five seasons but never performed up to those lofty prospect expectations. In a total of 230 2/3 frames at the MLB level, he’s compiled a 6.40 ERA and a similarly discouraging 5.58 FIP. Along the way, Hoffman has averaged 7.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and 1.79 HR/9 to go along with a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate.
Unappealing as those baseline numbers are, however, there’s also reason to believe that Hoffman may yet have another gear into which he can tap. As noted here at MLBTR back in May, Hoffman possesses high-end velocity and spin rate on his four-seamer and above-average spin on a curveball that generally befuddled hitters in 2019. The Reds and their affinity for high-spin pitchers may have a different idea about how Hoffman can maximize what looks to at least be a viable two-pitch mix — be it concentrating his four-seamer more in the top of the zone, altering his release point or any number of other possible tweaks.
Hoffman is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to open the 2021 season on the Reds’ roster. If they’re able to successfully tap into his still-dormant potential, he’d be controllable for another four seasons.
The tale of Stephenson in Cincinnati is rather similar. He’s a hard-throwing 27-year-old who is out of minor league options and at various points ranked among the game’s elite pitching prospects but has yet to develop into a consistent producer.
Stephenson has had recent success, however, giving the Reds 64 2/3 frames of 3.76 ERA and 3.63 FIP ball with 11.3 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 as recently as 2019. Unfortunately for both the Reds and Stephenson, he followed that up with a ghastly 2020 effort in which he served up 11 runs in just 10 innings — thanks largely to an astonishing eight home runs allowed.
It’s worth noting that Stephenson, like Hoffman, possesses excellent velocity and spin rate on his fastball — both of which contributed to him recording an 18.7 percent swinging-strike rate across the past two seasons. Stephenson’s whiff rate, in fact, ranked among the 99th percentile of all big league relievers in 2019, so there’s plenty of reason to think that he could also emerge (or reemerge) as a viable setup piece for the Rockies. He’s controlled for three more seasons — one less year than they controlled Hoffman.
Hannah, 23, was a second-round pick by the A’s back in 2018 but was traded to the Reds in the 2019 swap that brought righty Tanner Roark to Oakland. He has just one full professional season under his belt after this year’s minor league campaign was canceled, having slashed .274/.339/.369 at Class-A Advanced in ’19. Hannah currently ranks 15th among Cincinnati farmhands at MLB.com and 23rd at FanGraphs, drawing praise for a combination of plus speed, above-average fielding and an average or better hit tool. Hannah lacks power, and scouting reports peg his arm as below average as well.
Williams was the Rockies’ fourth-round pick just this past summer. He’s yet to pitch in a pro game due to the cancellation of the 2020 minor league system and was at least somewhat of a surprise pick, as he didn’t rank in the draft’s top 200 prospects at MLB.com or the top 500 at Baseball America.
However, as GM Jeff Bridich explained to MLB.com’s Thomas Harding at the time, Williams was a local product whom the club had scouted extensively. It’s possible that with a full high school season, of course, Williams would’ve been vaulted onto those pre-draft rankings. And it’s clear that the Rox aren’t the only club intrigued by Williams and his 96 mph heater, as evidenced by the very fact that the Reds have had him included in today’s swap. Indeed, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets that Cincinnati GM Nick Krall now says his team planned to draft Williams before the Rockies snagged him in the fourth round.
Fansided’s Robert Murray first reported that a trade was in place and that Hannah was in the deal. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added details on the framework (Twitter links) before Murray reported all of the names involved.
Reds Open To Offers For Sonny Gray
Just as the Rays are reportedly listening to trade offers on Blake Snell to see if someone will bowl them over, the Reds are performing their own due diligence and at least listening to offers on right-hander Sonny Gray, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. It’s important to note that there’s no indication Cincinnati is actively shopping Gray. However, Rosenthal adds that the Reds are seeking to pare back payroll in 2021, and it’s possible that a Gray trade could fill other needs on the big league roster while simultaneously lowering overall expenditures.
Gray, who just turned 31 earlier this month, would immediately stand out as one of most coveted arms in the game, although the price to acquire him would likely be reflective of that reality. He’s thrived since being traded to Cincinnati, posting a 3.07 ERA and 3.33 FIP with a 50.9 percent grounder rate and averages of 10.8 strikeouts, 3.7 walks and 0.82 home runs per nine innings pitched.
On top of that excellent performance, Gray is owed an eminently affordable $10MM in each of the next two seasons before the Reds (or another club) make the decision on a $12MM club option for the 2023 campaign. In a market that has remained strong for starting pitchers, at least early on, the appeal of Gray’s contract is all the more apparent. Already, we’ve seen Robbie Ray ($8MM with the Blue Jays), Drew Smyly ($11MM, Braves) and Charlie Morton ($15MM, Braves) command sizable one-year pacts.
Any package for Gray would surely need to be focused on MLB-ready talent. The Reds only just emerged from a years-long rebuilding effort and aren’t looking to tear things down by any account. That said, even with Trevor Bauer coming off the books, payroll could be tight. The Reds are looking at salary hikes for first-time arbitration players like Luis Castillo, Jesse Winker, Tyler Mahle and Amir Garrett. Others due raises in arbitration include catcher Curt Casali, righty Michael Lorenzen and trade deadline pickups Brian Goodwin and Archie Bradley.
The Reds also already have $101.375MM guaranteed to Joey Votto, Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez, Wade Miley, Raisel Iglesias, Tucker Barnhart and Gray. The projected salaries of their arbitration class could push that sum north by another $24MM or so, depending on non-tenders, and they’ll have to round out the roster with pre-arbitration players.
All in all, the Reds are likely looking at a payroll north of $130MM for the second straight season. Considering last year’s roughly $134MM Opening Day payroll (prior to prorated salaries) was already a franchise record, it’s not a shock that ownership is looking for ways to reduce spending without completely punting on competing in what should be a rather wide-open, four-team division race.
Remaining competitive would be the tricky part. Castillo gives the Reds a legitimate top-of-the-rotation presence even without Gray or Bauer present, and Miley has long been a durable source of innings. Lorenzen hopes to move into next year’s rotation, and Mahle had a solid 2020 showing. Still, it’d be a precipitous drop to go from a playoff rotation of Bauer, Gray and Castillo to a top three of Castillo, Miley and Mahle. The Reds could always add rotation help either as part of the return package for Gray or via the free-agent market, but arms of his caliber aren’t going to be available at a $10MM annual rate.
As for Gray’s potential market, he’d draw widespread interest, and history can provide a guide for a few potential fits. The Padres, Brewers and Twins were linked to Gray when the Yankees made it clear they were shopping him after the 2018 season — much different circumstances than at present. The Rangers were reported to have interest as well, although they’re unlikely to be in the mix now that they’re focusing on a youth movement.
Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, meanwhile, was a member of the Athletics front office when Gray was drafted 18th overall and developed there, and we know San Francisco is looking for rotation help. The Blue Jays have also been in the hunt for rotation help and aren’t facing the type of payroll constraints felt by many of their rivals. The Angels seem to be perennially searching for starting pitching upgrades. Others would undoubtedly enter the fray.
It bears repeating that this appears to be a far different scenario than when Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said in 2018 that he was “open-minded to relocation” for Gray and conceded it was “probably best [for Gray] to try somewhere else.” Gray’s stock has skyrocketed since that time, and without some combination of MLB-ready young talent (ideally at shortstop and in the rotation), it’s hard to imagine a trade actually coming together. Even then, this would be a difficult trade to make for a Reds team intent on contending, but other clubs will be motivated to try to make them consider the possibility.
Reds Acquire Brandon Bailey From Astros
The Reds announced Friday that they’ve acquired righty Brandon Bailey from the Astros in exchange for cash. In a separate move, Cincinnati also acquired minor league right-hander Fredy Medina from Houston. Medina will serve as the player to be named later from the earlier trade that sent southpaw Brooks Raley to the Astros.
In addition to that pair of trades with Houston, the Reds announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez, Riley O’Brien and Jared Solomon. All are now on the 40-man roster and protected from selection in next month’s Rule 5 Draft. Cincinnati’s 40-man roster is now up to 36 players.
It’s been three years to the day since the 26-year-old Bailey was last traded, going from the Athletics to the Astros. Unfortunately for the ’Stros, that trade sent a minor league outfielder by the name of Ramon Laureano to Oakland. Houston apparently didn’t care to protect Laureano in advance of the Rule 5 Draft — a clear misstep that proved to be a godsend for one of their chief division rivals.
Bailey has clearly intrigued other clubs, however. The Orioles selected him in last year’s Rule 5 Draft, and the Astros gave him a look in the Majors this past year. Now, the Reds are keen on giving him a 40-man roster spot of their own. He’s allowed a pair of runs in 7 1/3 MLB innings and carries a 3.45 ERA with a 126-to-50 K/BB ratio in 117 1/3 innings at the Double-A level.
Medina, who turned 23 in April, is something of a long shot for the Reds, it would seem. He’s yet to play above the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and has walked 51 hitters in 74 professional innings. Considering the fact that Raley turned out to be a nice 2020 piece to the Houston ’pen and is controlled through 2021, the ’Stros have to feel good about how that deal turned out.
Phillies Hire Caleb Cotham As Pitching Coach
The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve hired Caleb Cotham as their new pitching coach, replacing the recently retired Bryan Price. Cotham was reported to be the front-runner last week.
It’s been a rapid ascent to this position for Cotham, who is still just 33 years of age and as recently as 2016 was pitching in the big leagues. He retired shortly thereafter and was quickly hired as an assistant pitching coach with one of his former teams, the Reds. Cotham’s extensive work with Driveline Baseball opened him up to myriad ways in which data and technology could be implemented as a means of improving velocity and optimizing pitching arsenals. When the Reds hired Driveline’s Kyle Boddy a year later in 2019, Cotham added “director of pitching” to his title with the Reds organization.
Despite his youth, Cotham’s growing knowledge of cutting-edge technological advancements in pitching development has made him something of a rising star on the coaching ranks. He reportedly interviewed with multiple clubs this winter. Cotham’s familiarity with Phillies skipper Joe Girardi, his manager with the 2015 Yankees, surely couldn’t have hurt his chances at landing the job in Philadelphia.
“Caleb has many strengths as a pitching coach that we believe will help him excel with our staff,” Girardi said in a statement within today’s press release. “He has a very good feel for evaluating pitchers and getting them back on track when things start to go wrong. The pitchers in Cincinnati were very complimentary of his game-planning ability and knowing how to play to each one of their strengths. Caleb is a tremendous competitor whose experience as both a major league pitcher and major league coach will enhance our staff.”
The loss of Cotham gives the Reds some work to do on their coaching staff. Boddy, the organization’s pitching coordinator and director of pitching initiatives, noted at the end of a congratulatory Twitter thread that he is “not throwing [his] hat into the ring” to replace Cotham. Boddy added that Cotham’s presence with the organization “helped to attract considerable coaching talent” from outside the organization and that the Reds have “a lot of great directions to investigate.”
