NL Central Notes: Indians, Reynolds, Winker, Brach, Hayes, Escobar
The Indians were known to be looking at outfield help in the lead-up to the trade deadline, and The Athletic’s Zack Meisel reports that Cleveland checked in on a pair of major NL Central names — the Tribe spoke to the Pirates about Bryan Reynolds, and with the Reds about Jesse Winker. It isn’t known if any serious talks took place about potential deals, or if the Indians were just doing their due diligence and were quickly rebuffed.
The Pirates are reportedly viewing Reynolds as a building block and aren’t looking to move him (at least for anything less than a gigantic offer). As for the Reds, it wasn’t even certain if they were going to be deadline sellers at all, even though Cincinnati had only a 39-40 record at the end of June. However, the Reds have gone 32-21 since July 1 and now hold a 1.5-game lead over the Padres for the second NL wild card slot. Given how Winker has developed into one of the game’s best bats, it’s safe to assume the Reds won’t be very open to offseason trade inquiries about his services, short of any “too good to be true” proposals.
More from the NL Central…
- Speaking of Winker, the slugger has recently started some baseball activities as he continues to work his way back from an intercostal strain. Reds manager David Bell told The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters that Winker has begun throwing and strengthening exercises, and he’ll start swinging a bat sometime this week. Nightengale writes that Winker is “is still a couple of weeks away” from being activated from the 10-day injured list, after Winker was first placed on the IL on August 16.
- Also from Bell’s update to reporters, Brad Brach should begin a minor league rehab assignment this week. A right shoulder impingement sent Brach to the IL on August 8. Brach signed a minors contract with the Reds in May, and he has posted a 5.59 ERA over 29 relief innings since joining the big league roster.
- X-rays were negative on Ke’Bryan Hayes‘ right hand after the Pirates third baseman left today’s game with a hand contusion, manager Derek Shelton told reporters (including The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey). Hayes was replaced at third base for the top of the eighth inning during the Bucs’ 4-3 win over the Cardinals. Fortunately, the injury appears to just a day-to-day situation for the rookie, who has already missed two months of the season due to a wrist injury. Over 312 plate appearances, Hayes has a modest .246/.317/.370 slash line and five home runs this year.
- Eduardo Escobar was playing catch on the field prior to today’s Brewers game, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports (via Twitter). Escobar was retroactively placed on the 10-day IL due to a right hamstring strain on August 23, and was given an initial recovery timeline of 10-14 days. After being acquired in a trade with the Diamondbacks, Escobar appeared in only 21 games with his new team before being sidelined. Escobar was Arizona’s All-Star representative this season, and he has hit .252/.307/.473 with 24 homers over 489 combined PA with the D’Backs and Brewers.
NL Injury Notes: Moustakas, Lopez, Contreras
Mike Moustakas left tonight’s game due to right hip tightness, replaced by Asdrubal Cabrera at third base to begin the bottom of the second inning. Moustakas struck out in his lone plate appearance (in the top of the second) and Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer noted that Moustakas “hopped on his left leg a couple of times” following a game-opening single from Miguel Rojas. This was one of four balls hit in Moustakas’ direction during what ended up as a five-run inning for the Marlins en route to their 6-1 win over the Reds.
The severity of the hip problem isn’t known, though the 2021 season has already been an injury-marred campaign for the veteran infielder. Moustakas has played in only 45 games due to missing more than 11 weeks due to a right heel injury, which eventually necessitated a trip to the 60-day injured list. The result is a .216/.309/.417 slash line and six home runs through 162 plate appearances, and a 92 wRC+ that would count as the Moose’s lowest since the 2014 season. Cabrera was claimed off waivers just yesterday to help the Reds’ infield depth, though he could be in line for quite a bit more playing time if Moustakas’ hip issue results in another IL visit.
More injury updates from around the National League…
- Pablo Lopez was scratched from a scheduled rehab start on Thursday and is now returning to Miami, Marlins manager Don Mattingly told reporters (including MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola). A right rotator cuff strain sent Lopez to the injured list (retroactively) on July 14, yet even with just over a month remaining in the season, Mattingly didn’t commit to the idea of potentially shutting Lopez down. “Nothing more than…just slowing him down, making sure we’re careful with him. Sounded like a minor setback for sure,” Mattingly said. “Probably not minor to Pablo, who’s wanting to get going. But I know the medical staff’s going to be careful with him.” Lopez has posted a 3.03 ERA/3.50 SIERA over 101 innings for Miami this season, with above-average strikeout (27.1%) and walk (6.1%) rates and strong hard-hit ball numbers.
- Willson Contreras is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment within a few days’ time, Cubs manager David Ross told The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and other reporters. Contreras has been on the 10-day IL since August 12 due to a sprained right knee. One of the few veterans still on the roster following the Cubs’ trade deadline fire sale, Contreras is enjoying another solid season, hitting .226/.333/.417 with 17 homers over 403 plate appearances.
Reds Claim Asdrubal Cabrera
1:45pm: The Reds and D-backs have officially announced the move.
12:44pm: The Reds have claimed veteran infielder Asdrubal Cabrera off waivers from the Diamondbacks, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The teams have yet to announce the move. Cincinnati already has multiple vacancies on its 40-man roster, so the Reds will only need to open a spot on the active 26-man roster.
Cabrera, 35, will give the Reds a switch-hitting infield option off the bench for the final month-plus of the regular season — and for the postseason, should they qualify. Because Cabrera is being claimed prior to Sept. 1, he’ll be eligible for postseason play with his new club.
It hasn’t been a great year at the plate for Cabrera, but he’s posted a respectable .244/.324/.392 batting line in 321 plate appearances while splitting his time between the infield corners (in addition to one lone inning at shortstop). He’s playing out the season on a one-year, $1.75MM contract and is owed about $358K of that sum through season’s end. The Reds will be on the hook for the remainder of that salary.
The veteran Cabrera looked like an obvious trade candidate prior to the deadline, but the D-backs apparently didn’t find much interest. They’ll clear a bit of cash now that he’s been claimed, although the primary motivation here could simply have been to give a veteran player a chance to join a playoff contender.
Cincinnati doesn’t have everyday at-bats available for Cabrera — not with Joey Votto at first base, Jonathan India at second base and Mike Moustakas over at third base. However, Cabrera has been quite productive against left-handed pitching over the past two seasons and has slightly better numbers against lefties than against righties over the course of his lengthy career. And as potent as the Reds’ lineup can be, Cincinnati has quietly been one of the game’s least-productive groups against southpaws, hitting just .231/.313/.380 as a team. Their collective 86 wRC+ against lefties ranks 28th in the Majors. Cabrera gives them a slight upgrade in that regard and also gives manager David Bell some versatility for late-game maneuvering.
Tejay Antone To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Reds reliever Tejay Antone announced (on Twitter) that he will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow. It’ll be the second time of the right-hander’s career, as Antone previously underwent the procedure in 2017.
It’s a disappointing, if not especially surprising, development. Antone spent most of the past few months on the injured list with forearm troubles. He was activated from the IL on Tuesday but pulled himself from that night’s game just five pitches amidst obvious discomfort. Cincinnati placed him back on the IL yesterday with what the team termed a forearm strain.
While no timetable has been announced, it seems likely Antone will miss the entire 2022 season. Tommy John procedures often require fourteen-plus months of recovery time, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the team is particularly cautious with Antone’s rehab given that he’s already undergone the procedure once before.
It’s a notable blow for the Reds, as Antone has been the club’s best reliever. The 27-year-old worked 33 2/3 innings across 23 appearances as a high-leverage weapon, pitching to a 2.14 ERA. Antone punched out hitters at a massive 32.8% clip on the back of an above-average 12.9% swinging strike rate. It’s the second consecutive high-end season to begin Antone’s MLB career, as he broke into the big leagues with 35 1/3 frames of 2.80 ERA ball in 2020.
Despite Antone’s contributions, the bullpen has been a problem for the Reds for much of the year. Cincinnati relievers have a 5.27 ERA that ranks 28th in the league, while they’re closer to middle-of-the-pack in SIERA (4.07) and strikeout/walk rate differential (14.3 percentage points). They’ve been marginally better since remaking their bullpen the week of the trade deadline — when they acquired Luis Cessa, Justin Wilson and Mychal Givens — but Reds’ relievers still have an even 5.00 ERA over the past thirty days. Antone has been on the injured list for almost all of that time already, but holding late leads will be all the more difficult with no possibility of him making it back at this point. At 69-59, the Reds hold a one-game advantage over the Padres in the NL Wild Card race.
Antone will likely be placed on the 60-day injured list whenever the Reds need a spot on the 40-man roster. He’ll need to return to the 40-man over the offseason but can go back on the 60-day IL for the entirety of next season. Antone will continue to accrue service time on the IL and is scheduled to reach arbitration eligibility for the first time after the 2022 campaign.
Mariners Claim Sean Doolittle Off Waivers From Reds
The Mariners have claimed veteran reliever Sean Doolittle off waivers from the Reds, per a team announcement. Fellow reliever Keynan Middleton has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Doolittle had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
For the bulk of his career, Doolittle has been an elite reliever. After breaking into the big leagues in 2012, he posted an ERA of 3.23 or lower every year through 2018 (excluding a 2015 campaign in which he logged just 13 2/3 innings due to injury). That run of consistency earned him the closer’s role in Oakland, a job he held after being traded to the Nationals in 2017.
Doolittle has fallen on harder times over the past few seasons. While he posted strong strikeout and walk rates in 2019, an increase in home runs allowed pushed his ERA up to 4.05. The southpaw then missed most of last year’s shortened campaign due to knee and oblique issues. Upon reaching free agency, he signed a $1.5MM guarantee with the Reds over the winter.
While he has stayed healthy all year, Doolittle didn’t find enough success to stick in the Cincinnati bullpen over the entire season. His strikeout and walk rates (23.7% and 10.4%, respectively) have dipped to about league average for the first time in his career. And while Doolittle hasn’t been quite as home run prone this season as he was two years back, his 18.2% ground-ball rate is the lowest mark among the 207 relievers with 30+ innings pitched. That made for a tough fit in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Doolittle’s fly-ball heavy ways are easier to manage in Seattle’s more spacious T-Mobile Park. And while Doolittle’s strikeout and walk rates suggest he’s no longer the elite late-innings option he was at his peak, the 34-year-old still looks to be at least an average middle reliever.
Acquiring Doolittle comes with very little risk, as the M’s will simply have to assume the remainder of that modest $1.5MM deal (approximately $295K). For a Seattle club a mere two and a half games back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League, it’s a worthwhile cost to bolster the bullpen depth for the season’s final five weeks. If the Mariners do make the playoffs, Doolittle will be eligible for the postseason roster because he was acquired before August 31.
To make room for Doolittle, the Mariners do run the risk of losing Middleton. A well-regarded relief prospect during his days in the Angels’ system, Middleton broke into the majors with a very promising rookie season in 2017. By early the following year, he had assumed the closing duties in Anaheim.
Unfortunately, Middleton blew out his elbow in May 2018 and required Tommy John surgery. His stuff didn’t look the same upon his return and the Angels non-tendered last winter after he spent most of the 2020 campaign at the alternate training site. Seattle jumped in to add the righty on a one-year, $800K guarantee in free agency.
Middleton has logged significant action for Seattle this season but hasn’t recaptured his peak form. Across 31 frames, he’s managed just a 4.94 ERA with a career-low 17.1% strikeout rate and a lofty 13.6% walk percentage. Middleton has actually induced plenty of swinging strikes (14.2%) but they’ve yet to translate into consistent results.
Seattle will now place Middleton on waivers over the coming days. Another team could take a speculative flier in the hope that Middleton’s swing-and-miss stuff and still strong velocity could lead to stronger production moving forward. Any claiming team could keep him under club control through 2023 via arbitration if he figures things out down the stretch.
Reds Place Tejay Antone On Injured List, Release Michael Feliz
3:05 pm: Cincinnati has placed Antone on the 10-day injured list due to a right forearm strain. Infielder Max Schrock is up from Triple-A Louisville to take his active roster spot. Additionally, the Reds announced they’ve released reliever Michael Feliz. Feliz, who was designated for assignment on Monday, will be placed on waivers and will be free to sign elsewhere, assuming he passed through unclaimed.
9:33 am: The Reds welcomed their best reliever back from a nearly two-month stay on the injured list on Tuesday, but Tejay Antone‘s return lasted only five pitches. Antone grimaced in obvious pain after his fifth pitch and immediately called for the training staff to come to the mound, at which point he was removed from the game.
Any type of arm discomfort after spending two months on the shelf due to a forearm strain is troubling, and manager David Bell expressed concern to reporters in his postgame session (link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). “He definitely felt something in his elbow,” Bell said of Antone.
A return trip to the injured list would be a tough blow to a Reds club that has soared into Wild Card position over the past several weeks. Antone is not only Cincinnati’s best reliever but one of the better relievers in the entire league when at his best. The 27-year-old made his MLB debut last year and has since pitched 69 innings of 2.48 ERA ball with a huge 32.3 percent strikeout rate, a 10.8 percent walk rate and a 48 percent ground-ball rate. Since making his debut, Antone ranks 27th in strikeout percentage among the 307 pitchers who’ve tallied at least 60 innings. He has the second-highest rate of called strikes in that same set (22.9 percent) and ranks third in combined called/swinging-strike rate (35.8 percent).
An Antone injury is particularly concerning for the Reds given that bullpen struggles have been the team’s Achilles heel all season. Cincinnati has the fourth-highest collective bullpen ERA in the Majors (5.27) and has seen continued struggles even after adding three relievers at the deadline (4.99 ERA over the past 30 days; 6.21 over the past two weeks). Veteran left-hander Sean Doolittle was designated for assignment just yesterday.
If Antone ultimately requires another absence, the Reds will continue to lean on the combination of Mychal Givens, Michael Lorenzen and Amir Garrett late in games. Cincinnati currently has sole possession of the second NL Wild Card spot, but the Padres (one game), Cardinals (four and a half games) and Phillies (five games) are all within striking distance.
Reds Activate Tejay Antone, Designate Sean Doolittle For Assignment
The Reds announced they’ve reinstated right-hander Tejay Antone from the 10-day injured list. To open space on the active roster, Cincinnati designated southpaw Sean Doolittle for assignment. The move also clears another spot on the 40-man roster, which now sits at 37.
Antone has missed the better part of three months dealing with forearm issues. He landed on the IL with inflammation on June 11, then returned after a minimal stint. Just four days later, he was placed back on the IL with a forearm strain that has kept him out ever since. Before the injury, Antone had been the Reds’ best late-inning weapon. He’s worked to a 1.87 ERA over 33 2/3 frames this season, striking out a fantastic 33.1% of opponents against an average 9.4% walk rate. It’s the second consecutive quality season for the 27-year-old, who posted a 2.80 ERA over 35 1/3 innings as a rookie in 2020.
Cincinnati welcomes back their top reliever at an opportune time. The Reds’ recent hot streak, coupled with the Padres’ free fall, has Cincinnati up a game over the Friars with a little less than six weeks remaining in the regular season. That’s a far better position than the Reds were in as recently as a couple weeks ago, but it’s also nowhere near a comfortable advantage. The Cincinnati bullpen was a disaster earlier in the season, but they’ve performed better over the past few weeks.
Doolittle has been a fixture in that relief corps for the entire season. He’ll now lose his spot as part of a broader makeover in the late innings. In addition to Antone, Cincinnati welcomed Lucas Sims back from a lengthy IL stint earlier this month, and they overhauled the bullpen before the July 30 trade deadline. The Reds brought in Mychal Givens, Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson via trade, pushing Doolittle out of the picture.
The veteran southpaw was one of the sport’s premier relievers from 2012-18. He broke in with the A’s and eventually earned the closer’s role in Oakland, a job he retained after being traded to the Nationals midway through the 2017 season. Doolittle pitched at a league average level in 2019 before struggling through an injury-wrecked 2020 campaign to end his time in Washington. He signed a one-year, $1.5MM guarantee with the Reds in February.
Doolittle has stayed healthy this season, but he’s amidst the worst year of his career. The 34-year-old has worked 38 1/3 innings of 4.46 ERA ball across 45 appearances, striking out 23.7% of opposing hitters against a 10.4% walk rate. That’s not disastrous work — it’s a little worse than league average after adjusting for the Reds’ hitter-friendly home park — but it’s nowhere near the elite heights Doolittle reached at his peak.
That said, it’s plausible another team will add Doolittle off waivers over the coming days. Even if he’s only a league average pitcher at this stage of his career, that kind of competence could upgrade many teams’ current middle innings situations. And Doolittle’s low base salary would reduce the financial responsibility for claiming teams, as he’s only due around $311K from now through season’s end. Should Doolittle pass through waivers unclaimed, he’d have the right to elect free agency while collecting the remainder of that guaranteed salary as a player with five-plus years of big league service.
Reds Designate Michael Feliz For Assignment
The Reds have designated right-handed reliever Michael Feliz for assignment, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. He’d been on a minor league rehab assignment that had drawn to a close, and the Reds opted against adding him back to the MLB roster. Cincinnati now has 38 players on its 40-man roster.
Feliz, 28, was a May waiver claim by the Reds out of the Pirates organization and appeared in nine games before landing on the injured list with a sprained right elbow. He yielded a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with nine strikeouts during his brief time in the organization.
The elbow injury ultimately sidelined Feliz for more than two months, but he recently wrapped up a rehab assignment and is apparently healthy now. The Reds determined their current bullpen group to be sufficient, clearly, and because Feliz is out of minor league options, he’ll now be exposed to outright waivers or released.
Feliz posted an impressive 30.5 percent strikeout rate and a 3.99 ERA in 56 1/3 innings with Pittsburgh back in 2019, but command problems and arm injuries have hindered him throughout his big league career. He’s missed time with shoulder and forearm injuries prior to this year’s elbow troubles. In 241 MLB innings between Houston, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, the hard-throwing Feliz owns a 5.38 ERA with a 30 percent strikeout rate and a 9.9 percent walk rate.
2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.
As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.
Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.
The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.
With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.
Locks
- Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodón, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story
This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.
Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.
Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.
Likely
- Michael Conforto, Jon Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, Eduardo Rodríguez, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Taylor, Justin Verlander
Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.
The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.
Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.
Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.
Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.
Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.
The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.
Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.
Possible
The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.
San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.
Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.
Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.
Long Shots
The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.
Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.
Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.
Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.
Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.
Opt-Out Clauses
Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.
Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.
Ineligible
- Javier Báez (midseason trade), Kris Bryant (midseason trade), Alex Cobb (previous QO), Nelson Cruz (previous QO/midseason trade), Danny Duffy (midseason trade), Eduardo Escobar (midseason trade), Kevin Gausman (previous QO), Kendall Graveman (midseason trade), Zack Greinke (previous QO), Kenley Jansen (previous QO), Starling Marte (midseason trade), Anthony Rizzo (midseason trade), Max Scherzer (previous QO/midseason trade), Kyle Schwarber (midseason trade), Marcus Stroman (previous QO)
Mets Claim Heath Hembree, Transfer Jacob deGrom To 60-Day Injured List
The Mets have claimed right-handed reliever Heath Hembree off waivers from the Reds, per a club announcement. Ace Jacob deGrom was transferred from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster. The Mets have already been without deGrom for more than a month, and he wasn’t expected back until September anyhow. He’ll be eligible to return on Sept. 15.
Hembree, 32, was serving as the Reds’ closer earlier this summer before a rough few weeks caused his ERA to balloon up to a dismal 6.38 mark. Unsightly as that ERA is, Hembree was lights-out from late June through late July, pitching to a 1.42 ERA with a 19-to-5 K/BB ratio and racking up seven saves in a span of 12 2/3 innings. That hot streak obviously came in a very small sample, but it’s worth noting — and this is likely what drew the Mets to him — that Hembree has been among the game’s best in terms of missing bats all season.
Among the 321 pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings this year, Hembree’s 38 percent strikeout rate is the game’s seventh-highest mark. He’s tied for 15th in that same set of pitchers with a 27.4 K-BB% and sits 18th with a 2.84 SIERA. He’s largely been done in by the long ball this season, serving up 10 dingers in 44 2/3 innings of work (2.13 HR/9). Seven of those home runs have come at the extremely hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, however, where Hembree’s ERA is north of 8.00. He’s been much better on the road, and a change of scenery could do him some good.
As for deGrom, the Mets said last week that he’d go at least another two weeks without throwing, so it’s unlikely he’d have been able to return much sooner than Sept. 15 anyhow. Once he starts throwing, he’ll need to build up sufficient arm strength to get back to the mound and hopefully make a few starts for the Mets down the stretch as they look to pull out of the spiral that has seen them fall from a comfortable lead in the NL East to a sub-.500 record and a five-game gap between the now-division-leading Braves.