Pitching Notes: Kimbrel, Cubs, Braves, Lorenzen, Gray, Astros, MadBum
The Cubs dealt Joc Pederson to the Braves tonight, though a prominent former Brave wasn’t part of the talks between the two teams, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link) reports that Craig Kimbrel‘s availability wasn’t discussed. Kimbrel would obviously have been a major boost for an inconsistent Atlanta bullpen, but Kimbrel is both considerably more expensive than Pederson and the Cubs surely would’ve demanded a much higher prospect return for the All-Star closer. Acquiring Kimbrel also would have been a clear all-in move for a Braves team that is still only 44-45, and perhaps only in contention by dint of a congested NL East. It’s possible that Atlanta might still pivot and start selling by the trade deadline if the team sinks further under the .500 mark over the next two weeks.
More on various hurlers around the sport…
- Kicking off the second half with a big series against the Brewers, the Reds expect to activate Michael Lorenzen and Sonny Gray from the injured list, Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer writes. After missing the entire season due to a shoulder strain, Lorenzen will likely be activated prior to Friday’s game, while Gray (rib cage strain) will start Sunday after missing only the minimum 10 days on the IL. Lorenzen’s return will be welcomed by a Reds bullpen that has struggled all season, while Gray has pitched well despite three separate IL trips that have limited him to 62 innings. Cincinnati placed reliever Art Warren on the 10-day IL today due to a left oblique strain, but a 40-man roster move will be necessary to reinstate Lorenzen from the 60-day IL.
- The Astros are “going to entertain the idea of [acquiring] starting pitchers” at the trade deadline, GM James Click told The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome and other reporters. Zack Greinke and Jose Urquidy are battling sore shoulders, Framber Valdez‘s control has been shaky, and Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier might be approaching innings thresholds. These issues have combined to turn what had been an area of strength for the Astros into a potential concern down the stretch. On the plus side, relievers Josh James, Austin Pruitt, and Pedro Baez are all on rehab assignments and are expected to be activated from the injured list soon, with James and Pruitt coming perhaps as early as Friday. That trio and perhaps Garcia could all fortify the bullpen from within, allowing Houston to pursue rotation help.
- Madison Bumgarner will be activated from the 10-day injured list to start the Diamondbacks‘ game with the Cubs on Friday, according to multiple reporters (including The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan). Bumgarner has been out of action due to shoulder inflammation since June 3, continuing what has thus far been a disastrous tenure in Arizona for the veteran lefty. Since signing a five-year, $85MM free agent deal in the 2019-20 offseason, Bumgarner has battled injuries and posted only a 6.04 ERA over 101 1/3 innings. It is very unlikely that a team will come calling about Bumgarner at the deadline given the size of his remaining contract, so the left-hander’s second half will just be about staying healthy and posting some solid numbers as a platform for better things next year.
MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams
With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.
In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.
For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.
American League
Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)
It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.
Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)
The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.
Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)
There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.
Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)
The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.
Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)
Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.
Which American League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
-
Blue Jays 48% (8,909)
-
Yankees 24% (4,413)
-
Angels 12% (2,177)
-
Mariners 8% (1,571)
-
Indians 8% (1,570)
Total votes: 18,640
(poll link for app users)
National League
Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)
The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.
Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)
The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.
Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)
One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.
Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)
The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.
Which National League Team Is Most Likely To Make The Playoffs In 2021?
-
Reds 56% (11,382)
-
Phillies 20% (4,066)
-
Braves 18% (3,710)
-
Cubs 6% (1,211)
Total votes: 20,369
(poll link for app users)
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/8/21
Today’s minor moves:
- The Blue Jays announced they’ve acquired outfield prospect Darlin Guzman from the Reds as the player to be named later in the teams’ January deal that sent right-hander Héctor Pérez to Cincinnati. Guzman joined the Reds during the 2017-18 international signing period and spent the next two seasons in the Dominican Summer League. He hit .306/.361/.537 over 391 plate appearances in the DSL and was with the Reds’ Arizona Complex League team in 2021. The 20-year-old has never appeared on a Reds system ranking at Baseball America or FanGraphs. Pérez, meanwhile, was outrighted off the 40-man roster last month after struggling with Triple-A Louisville. He remains in the organization but hasn’t made a big league appearance with Cincinnati.
- The Cubs announced that catcher Taylor Gushue has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Iowa. The 27-year-old does not have the requisite service time to refuse an outright assignment, so he’ll remain in the organization as high minors depth. A longtime Nationals farmhand, Gushue signed with the Cubs over the winter and has hit .272/.328/.440 over 137 plate appearances with Iowa this season. That earned him his first promotion to the major leagues last week, but he was designated for assignment having appeared in just two games when Chicago signed Robinson Chirinos to a big league deal.
Reds Place Sonny Gray On Injured List
3:51 pm: Gray seemed wholly unconcerned when speaking with reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) this afternoon. He said he pitched through the discomfort during his start yesterday and expects to be back when first eligible. In that case, he wouldn’t need to skip a turn in the rotation.
1:38 pm: The Reds announced Thursday that they’ve placed right-hander Sonny Gray back on the 10-day injured list due to a rib cage strain. It’s the third IL stint of the season for Gray, who had very recently returned from a four-week absence due to a groin strain. Right-hander Tony Santillan is up from Triple-A Louisville in his place.
Cincinnati hasn’t provided a timetable for Gray’s return, though it’s possible that with the All-Star break looming, the impact of his absence could be minimal. Gray started yesterday’s game (and pitched quite well), so he wouldn’t have been in line to make another start prior to the break anyhow. He’d be eligible to return for the Reds’ third game after the break, so it’s technically possible that he won’t even miss a start.
If the injury does prove to sideline Gray for a few outings, however, it’ll be a particularly ill-timed IL trip. The Reds, winners in 10 of their past 15 games, will come out of the break to host a pivotal three-game series against the division-leading Brewers. They’ll then take on a first-place Mets club before playing a string of seven straight divisional games (four against the Cubs, three against the Cardinals) in the days leading up to the July 30 trade deadline. Getting multiple starts from Gray, who has a 3.19 ERA in 62 frames this year, would obviously be ideal.
The Reds’ recent hot streak has propelled them back to second place in the NL Central. They’re six back of the Brewers at the moment, making these next seven games in particular quite important to their season. General manager Nick Krall recently characterized his club as deadline buyers, although one would imagine that is at least somewhat dependent on how the team performs in the looming seven-game stretch against the current division leaders.
For now, Santillan will give the Reds’ staff some depth. All four of his outings with the big league club this season have been starts, but he’ll give manager David Bell a multi-inning option out of the ‘pen for now, it seems. In 16 2/3 innings of big league work so far, Santillan has allowed seven earned runs (3.78 ERA) on 18 hits and 10 walks with 20 punchouts.
Reds Notes: Lorenzen, Antone, Trade Deadline
The Reds could welcome right-hander Michael Lorenzen back from the injured list this weekend, manager David Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The 29-year-old is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville.
Lorenzen hasn’t pitched all year on account of a right shoulder strain. While the Reds intended to give him a shot to earn a spot in the starting rotation entering the year, Lorenzen’s now expected to come back in his customary relief role. Bell told reporters last month Cincinnati didn’t feel it was worthwhile to try to build his workload up to a level sufficient to take on a starting job, given the injury.
His return will be a welcome development for a Cincinnati bullpen that has been among the league’s worst this season. Reds relievers have a cumulative 5.22 ERA; only the Rockies bullpen (5.44) has had a tougher time preventing runs. The peripherals look a bit better — Cincinnati relievers are eighteenth in strikeout/walk rate differential (14.5 percentage points) and 21st in SIERA (4.01) — but the bullpen has nevertheless been one of the weaker position groups on the roster.
The issues have been exacerbated by recent injuries to Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone. Sims suffered an elbow sprain in late June that came with an expected one-month recovery timetable, and it now seems Antone’s looking at a similar return date. Antone has yet to resume throwing after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection on his ailing right forearm and isn’t expected back until late July, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com was among those to relay.
Presumably, the bullpen will be a key target area for the Reds to address in the next few weeks. In an interview with C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic on Friday, general manager Nick Krall said the club would be “aggressive” in acquiring help from outside the organization. Krall suggested then the front office wasn’t giving consideration to selling pieces off the big league roster, and that’s certainly all the more true after Cincinnati swept the Cubs in a three-game set to take over second place in the NL Central last weekend. At 43-40, the Reds still trail the division-leading Brewers by 6.5 games, and they’re 5.5 back of the Padres in the race for the league’s second Wild Card spot.
One question that remains is how much financial flexibility the front office has in exploring midseason upgrades. Krall told Rosecrans the team could add salary “within reason,” a bit of an equivocation that’s likely to concern some fans after payroll constrains led the Reds to trade closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels for very little return over the winter.
Mariners Sign Shane Carle
The Mariners have signed reliever Shane Carle to a minor league contract, per Mike Curto, broadcaster for Seattle’s Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma. The 29-year-old has been assigned to the Rainiers.
Carle signed a minors pact with the Reds in February. He spent the entire season with Cincinnati’s top farm team in Louisville, working to a 3.45 ERA with decent strikeout and walk rates (21.7% and 7.2%, respectively). Despite the solid performance, Cincinnati released Carle earlier this week rather than add him to the big league roster.
The right-hander appeared in the majors with the Rockies and Braves between 2017-19. The overwhelming majority of his playing time came with Atlanta in 2018, when Carle worked to a 2.86 ERA over 63 frames. His peripherals never supported that run prevention level, though. Carle only struck out 16.6% of batters faced that year while walking an average 10.4% of opponents, contributing to a less inspiring 4.59 SIERA.
Carle got off to a bad start the following season, allowing ten runs on eleven hits and nine walks while striking out six. The Braves designated him for assignment after just six appearances, and he didn’t return to the majors after being acquired by the Rangers. Nevertheless, there’s no harm for the Mariners in brining him aboard as high minors depth, particularly given his solid numbers with Louisville this year.
Injured List Returns: Gregorius, Reyes, Gray
While top players continue to hit the injured list on a near-daily basis, several notable names also made their return to the field today. The latest…
- The Phillies activated shortstop Didi Gregorius off the 10-day injured list prior to today’s 4-3 victory over the Padres, with infielder Nick Maton heading to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Gregorius hadn’t played since May 12, as his initial right elbow injury was slow to heal, and led to a setback in his minor league rehab assignment. The veteran shortstop had hit only .229/.266/.364 in his first 128 plate appearances of the season, but Gregorius celebrated his return to the lineup with a solo home run and a walk in four PA tonight.
- Franmil Reyes was activated off the Indians‘ 10-day IL, and infielder Yu Chang was optioned to Triple-A. Reyes suffered an internal oblique strain on May 23, and he’ll return about halfway between his projected recovery timeline of 5-to-7 weeks. The struggling Cleveland lineup is in need of Reyes’ offensive production, and he picked up where he left off by collecting three hits in tonight’s 6-3 Tribe loss to the Astros. Reyes is now hitting .268/.325/.577 with 11 home runs over 163 PA.
- Sonny Gray tossed five innings of one-run ball (on five hits and one walk, with eight strikeouts) in the Reds‘ 2-1 victory over the Cubs. A right groin strain sidelined Gray on June 9, and his return will boost a Cincinnati team that is trying to stay close in the NL Central and NL wild card races. With tonight’s outing in the books, Gray has a 3.27 ERA and an impressive 30.8% strikeout rate over 55 innings this season. Right-hander Ashton Goudeau was optioned to Triple-A to create roster room for Gray’s activation off the 10-day IL.
Minor MLB Transactions: 7/1/21
Today’s minor moves from around the game:
- The Reds announced that outfielder Scott Heineman has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Louisville. He’ll remain in the organization as non-roster depth. Cincinnati acquired Heineman from the Rangers over the winter, but he struggled in a brief look at the major league level before they designated him for assignment this week. The 28-year-old has a .172/.249/.325 line across 173 career MLB plate appearances, but he owns a much stronger .302/.368/.458 mark in parts of three Triple-A seasons.
- The Yankees announced they’ve acquired outfield prospect Aldenis Sanchez from the Rays. The move completes the teams’ June 17 trade that sent first baseman Mike Ford to Tampa Bay. Sanchez, 22, joined the Rays out of the Dominican Republic during the 2016-17 international signing period. He has yet to make it beyond rookie ball. Sanchez never appeared on a Rays system ranking at Baseball America; in March 2020, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs called the right-handed hitter a “speedy (prospect) with some contact skills.”
Reds Designate Scott Heineman For Assignment, Select Alejo Lopez
The Reds announced Monday morning that they’ve selected the contract of infielder Alejo Lopez and designated outfielder Scott Heineman for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster.
Heineman, 28, was 3-for-30 in a brief, 19-game look with Cincinnati this season after coming over from the Rangers via a December trade that sent young Jose Acosta to Texas. That rough showing dipped his career batting line in the big leagues to .172/.249/.325 through 173 plate appearances — all coming with either Texas or Cincinnati. Heineman has a much better track record in Triple-A, where he’s posted a hearty .302/.368/.458 slash through 699 trips to the plate.
As for the 25-year-old Lopez, he’s in the midst of a breakout campaign in the upper minors. He didn’t enter the season regarded as one of the better prospects in the Reds organization, but Lopez destroyed the Double-A Southern League with a .362/.437/.448 batting line before moving to Triple-A and upping the pace with a .358/.436/.526 slash through a nearly identical sample of plate appearances.
Lopez has had some good fortune in terms of balls in play (.404 BABIP in Double-A, .368 in Triple-A), but his output is also buoyed by what look to be exceptional bat-to-ball skills. Lopez has just 18 strikeouts against 24 walks through 229 plate appearances this season, helping to offset a lack of power. Lopez has only two home runs (both in Triple-A) and just nine long balls in 1564 plate appearances in minor league ball overall. But he’s also swatted 19 doubles in this year’s 229 trips to the plate and gone 6-for-7 in stolen base attempts.
Lopez has split his time between second base and third base this season, with the former of those two spots being his primary position throughout his minor league career. He does have some experience at shortstop and got some work in left field while playing winter ball in Mexico. He’ll give Cincinnati a switch-hitting presence to bounce around the diamond. This will be Lopez’s first call to the Majors after being a 27th-round pick by the Reds back in 2015. He’s controllable through at least the 2027 season.
MRI Reveals No UCL Damage For Reds’ Tejay Antone
JUNE 27: In encouraging news, Antone told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer and C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic) that an MRI revealed no damage to his UCL. The righty suggested he’s targeting a return immediately after the All-Star break, although he’ll be shut down from throwing for the moment.
JUNE 26: The Reds announced that right-hander Tejay Antone has been placed on the 10-day IL due to a right forearm strain. Left-hander Cionel Perez was recalled from Triple-A Louisville in the corresponding move.
Antone only just returned earlier this week from an 11-day stint on the injured list due to inflammation in that same forearm. It certainly isn’t a good sign that the righty is so quickly headed back to the IL with what looks like an even more serious forearm issue, especially since Antone already has a Tommy John surgery in his health history. It certainly looks like Antone will miss more than just a minimal amount of time with his latest injury, as the Reds will want to be as cautious as possible in avoiding any more serious damage.
In part because of that earlier TJ procedure that wiped out his 2017 season, Antone didn’t make his Major League debut until 2020, but he has made up for lost time with some impressive numbers. Over 69 innings in the big leagues, Antone has a 2.22 ERA/3.32 SIERA, 32.5% strikeout rate, and 48% grounder rate. While a .194 BABIP has helped minimize the damage from all those ground balls, Antone also isn’t allowing much hard contact.
There was some speculation in Spring Training that Antone could win a rotation job, though a minor hip injury scuttled that idea and placed him in the Reds’ bullpen. It ended up working out for the best, given that Antone has been more or less the only consistent arm in a very shaky Cincinnati relief corps. Even with Antone’ s 1.60 ERA over 33 2/3 relief innings this season, the Reds bullpen ranks last in the majors in ERA. Assuming Antone misses a noteworthy amount of time recovering from this forearm strain, it will put even more pressure on the Reds’ front office to land some bullpen help before the July 30 trade deadline.