- Reds left-hander Wade Miley, on the IL with a shoulder strain since Aug. 28, is “pretty close to 100 percent,” according to manager David Bell (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The playoff-contending Reds are likely to use Miley out of the bullpen if he is able to return this year, Nightengale relays. Signed to a two-year, $15MM contract last winter, Miley has made four starts and thrown 12 1/3 innings of 6.57 ERA ball in a Cincinnati uniform. Fortunately for the team, its rotation has still been among the league’s best because of the work of Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle.
Reds Rumors
Reds Activate Sonny Gray, Designate Nate Jones
The Reds have activated righty Sonny Gray from the 10-day injured list, the team announced. Gray is scheduled to start tonight’s game against the Brewers. To create roster space, right-hander Nate Jones has been designated for assignment.
A back strain sent Gray to the injured list on September 13 (retroactive placement to September 11), though fortunately for Gray and the Reds, the injury looks to have been a relatively minor one. Gray is now also lined up to start Sunday in what would be Cincinnati’s final game of the regular season, though that game is likely to be an all-hands-on-deck type of situation if the Reds need to win to clinch a playoff spot.
Heading into today’s action, the 28-27 Reds hold the seventh seed as a wild card in the NL postseason field, but the Brewers and Giants aren’t far behind at 26-27, with the eighth-seed Phillies sandwiched in between with an even 28-28 record. Cincinnati is also chasing the 26-25 Cardinals for second place in the NL Central, which guaranteed an automatic playoff berth.
Ironically, the Reds have gone 9-2 since Gray was retroactively placed on the IL, though there is no doubt he represents a major addition for Cincy down the stretch. Gray has a 3.94 ERA, 11.8 K/9, and 2.86 K/BB rate over 45 2/3 innings this season, with ERA indicators (2.92 FIP, 3.16 xFIP, 3.80 SIERA) generally showing that Gray’s 3.94 number is a bit inflated.
Jones struck out 23 batters and recorded a strong 3.83 K/BB rate over his 18 2/3 relief innings this season, but an ugly 2.4 HR/9 was largely responsible for Jones’ 6.27 ERA. On the plus side, the oft-injured Jones did stay healthy this year after missing much of 2019 due to forearm surgery, though he was obviously hoping for better performance for his hometown team. Jones signed a minor league deal with the Reds last winter.
Sonny Gray Could Return During Brewers Series
- Sonny Gray is tentatively scheduled to return during the Reds’ upcoming series with the Brewers, perhaps as early as Tuesday. However, Reds manager David Bell told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer and other reporters that no “final, final call” will be made until the team sees how Gray is feeling following a side session on Saturday. Gray has been on the injured list (retroactively) since September 11 due to a back strain, and his return would be a major boost as the Reds chase a postseason berth.
Tyler Thornburg Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Reds right-hander Tyler Thornburg underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports (Twitter link). Thornburg was placed on the 10-day injured list with an elbow sprain eight days ago and then shifted to the 45-day IL last Monday, officially ending his season.
Given the usual 12-15 month recovery time associated with Tommy John procedures, Thornburg will almost certainly miss the entire 2021 season. It is the latest in a series of tough injuries for the 31-year-old, who has been limited to 269 1/3 innings and 192 appearances in the big leagues since 2012. Thornburg previously missed the entire 2017 season and much of 2018 due to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.
These constant health woes kept Thornburg from realizing what seemed like a high ceiling as a relief pitcher. Thornburg had two outstanding seasons with the Brewers in 2013 and 2016, though elbow problems limited him in 2014-15. In the wake of that strong 2016 campaign, Milwaukee sent Thornburg to the Red Sox as part of a notable trade that brought Travis Shaw and Mauricio Dubon to the Brew Crew, though injuries limited Thornburg to just 42 2/3 innings in a Boston uniform before the Sox released him partway through the 2019 season.
A minor league deal with the Dodgers didn’t result in any MLB time in Los Angeles, though Thornburg resurfaced after inking a minors deal with Cincinnati over the winter. Thornburg posted a 3.86 ERA, 12.9 K/9, and 2.00 K/BB rate over what might wind up as his only seven innings for the Reds, and his fastball still clocked at 93.1 mph.
Trevor Bauer On Free Agency
Reds right-hander Trevor Bauer was already the top pitcher on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings back in February — well before the league shut down for several months, giving way to what felt like interminable negotiations between the league and MLBPA on a way to safely return to play. That was also before other projected top pitchers (e.g. Robbie Ray, Mike Minor) struggled immensely in 2020’s 60-game slate. It was before Marcus Stroman opted out of the season.
It was also before the 29-year-old Bauer absolutely obliterated opposing lineups en route to what is currently an MLB-best 1.71 ERA and a ninth-ranked 2.83 FIP. Bauer has struck out 37.4 percent of the hitters he’s faced this season against just a 6.8 percent walk rate. The resulting 30.6 K-BB% trails only Shane Bieber for the MLB lead. Per Statcast, Bauer ranks in the 96th percentile or better in each of expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage again and expected weighted on-base average. He ranks at the very top of the league in terms of fastball spin rate and expected ERA.
Bauer might not be the clear favorite for the NL Cy Young, thanks largely to sub-2.00 showings from each of Yu Darvish, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes — plus yet another dominant campaign from reigning, two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. But Bauer is squarely in the mix with at least two remaining starts on the schedule. The performance of all those names down the stretch will prove pivotal in determining who takes home that hardware.
Cy Young or not, Bauer has only furthered his standing as this winter’s most desirable free-agent starter. It’s not particularly close. Take a look through this year’s free-agent class and it’s clear that he is in his own tier.
With that in mind, it’s of particular note that Bauer took some time this week to discuss his forthcoming trip to the open market in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio). Asked about his priorities in free agency, Bauer replied:
I want to win. I want to be with a team that has a winning culture. I want to be there in the playoffs. I want a chance at a World Series. That’s one thing that really drives me. I want a chance to pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth. That really drives me. Going along with that: how’s the medical staff? How’s the technology — the information that’s available on the coaching staff? What’s the culture of the organization like?
Most top free agents prioritize signing with contending clubs or expected contenders, of course. But Bauer has spoken in the past about his desire to pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth, and that’s a more or less unheard-of concession for teams to make in today’s era of constantly evolving pitcher usage. Pitching every fourth day would be a throwback to rotations of a generation past, at a time when more teams are leaning toward increased rest and limiting trips through the batting order.
The technology component of Bauer’s decision is also a key factor to consider. Bauer himself takes an extremely analytical approach to pitching, so it stands to reason that he’d want a more progressive, data-forward team in that regard. The Reds’ hiring of Driveline head Kyle Boddy, with whom Bauer had already worked in the past, was surely a welcome addition for Bauer. There are still more analytically inclined clubs out there, of course, and Bauer will garner interest from virtually every hopeful contender.
The most notable portion of Bauer’s interview wasn’t the generally expected traits he hoped to see with a new club (or in a return to the Reds), but rather his softening of a long-voiced preference to sign one-year deals. Bauer has previously been vocal about playing out his career in mercenary fashion — only signing one-year arrangements. Doing so would not only give him annual control of where he pitches (thus ensuring regular work with contending teams) but could also increase his earning power.
There’s inherent risk in that approach, of course; a potential injury or decline would leave him without the safety net of a guaranteed multi-year salary. But teams are also much more willing to pay a premium on shorter-term deals — one-year deals in particular.
Just 18 months ago, Bauer again stated his intent to “go year-to-year my entire career.” He added, rhetorically: “Why would you lock yourself in a situation that may not make you happy? I think that’s highly inefficient.”
Now? Bauer makes clear that he’s open to one-year deals but wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a longer-term pact.
Again, I think it comes back to I just want a chance to win every year. I want to be in a situation where I feel valued and I have the chance to conduct my career the way I want to conduct it. So, pitch every fourth day, and stuff like that. I want to challenge myself and have a chance to do those things. So if there’s a situation where it presents itself where it is a four-year or five-year deal, and I feel confident that’s going to be a situation that’s good for me, I would consider it. I do think that in order to do the things that I want to do, I think I’m going to have to take on a little more risk than normal in those long-term contracts. …I’m not afraid of the one-year deals. I’m not afraid of the longer deals. It’s just going to be a case-by-case basis, and we’ll see what the situations look like.
Perhaps those comments were made more as a negotiating tactic that’ll allow Bauer to point back to them over the winter as he seeks to improve one-year offers. Perhaps he’s had a genuine change of heart and is now more open to the idea of a multi-year deal if it’s put forth by the right team. Other factors, such as opt-out clauses, could give him the opportunity to thread the needle and enjoy the best of both worlds. Every year tacked onto the deal and every opt-out clause included, however, figures to come at the expense of the overall annual value of the pact. Ultimately, whether it’s on a one-year deal or a multi-year deal, Bauer should earn the largest annual salary of any free-agent starter this winter.
Reds Acquire Justin Miller From Blue Jays
The Reds have acquired right-handed reliever Justin Miller from the Blue Jays for an undisclosed amount of international spending space, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports.
Miller, whom the Blue Jays signed to a minor league contract last winter, had been at their alternate training site. The former Tiger, Rockie and National, 33, has recorded a 4.43 ERA/4.35 FIP with 9.15 K/9 and 3.11 BB/9 over 156 1/3 innings in the majors. He most recently tossed 15 2/3 frames as a Nat in 2019 and logged a 4.02 ERA (with a disastrous 7.11 FIP), posted 6.11 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9, and registered a career-worst 19.1 percent groundball rate.
Reds Select R.J. Alaniz, Designate Nick Williams
The Reds have selected the contract of right-hander R.J. Alaniz, the team announced. Outfielder Nick Williams was designated for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot for Alaniz, while an active roster spot was opened when righty Jose De Leon was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right groin strain.
Alaniz was claimed off the Mariners’ roster in May 2019 and hasn’t yet appeared in the big leagues this season. Alaniz made his MLB debut last year, posting a 9.19 ERA over 15 2/3 combined innings for Seattle and Cincinnati. An undrafted free agent who signed with the Astros back in 2009, Alaniz has a 4.26 ERA, 2.19 K/BB rate, and 7.3 K/9 over 712 career innings in the minors, pitching in the farm systems of five different organizations.
De Leon’s IL placement will likely end his season after six innings with the Reds and an 18.00 ERA. De Leon was frequently shuttled between the Reds’ active roster and the taxi squad this year, and while this could explain why the righty never found his rhythm, De Leon exhibited some ungainly control problems, with 11 walks over his six innings of work. Formerly a top prospect during his time in the Dodgers’ and Rays’ organizations, De Leon is still clearly trying to get himself sorted after the Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for all of the 2018 season.
Williams is also a former top prospect, and his appearance on the DFA wire could quite possibly lead to a change of scenery. Cincinnati claimed Williams from the Phillies exactly one month ago, though the outfielder hasn’t yet seen any Major League action in a Reds uniform. Despite a solid .269/.330/.446 slash line over 791 PA with the Phillies in 2017-18, Williams didn’t see much playing time last year and eventually became an expendable part in Philadelphia. It wouldn’t be surprising if a playoff contender tried to claim Williams in order to add outfield depth, or even a team looking ahead to 2021 could put in a claim to give Williams a look on their roster.
Reds’ Matt Bowman To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Reds right-hander Matt Bowman will undergo Tommy John surgery later this week, manager David Bell announced to reporters Monday afternoon (Twitter link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). Given the timing of the procedure, he’ll likely miss the entirety of the 2021 season.
Bowman, 29, hasn’t pitched this season due to an elbow sprain. The club originally optioned him to the alternate training site in late July, but that move was rescinded when Bowman’s injury was discovered after the fact. He was placed on the Major League injured list instead and has spent the season there, accruing service time along the way.
Bowman has spent his entire big league career in the NL Central, pitching with the Cardinals from 2016-18 and the Reds last season. His lone season in Cincinnati resulted in a 3.66 ERA with 7.0 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 over the life of 32 innings. That solid showing would likely have put him in position to pitch out of the Reds’ bullpen again in 2020 had he been healthy. Now, his future with the organization is up in the air. Bowman will finish this season with four-plus years of MLB service time, meaning he’ll be arbitration-eligible over the winter. Given that he’s a long shot, at best, to pitch at all in 2021, he’s a virtual lock to be non-tendered. Cincinnati could bring him back on a minor league arrangement, but Bowman may also wait until the 2021-22 offseason to latch on with a new organization.
In 181 2/3 innings at the Major League level, Bowman carries a 4.02 ERA and a 3.67 FIP with averages of 7.5 strikeouts, 3.0 walks and 0.7 homers per nine innings pitched. He’s also turned in a strong 56.6 percent ground-ball rate, picked up two saves and been credited with 41 holds in the big leagues.
Reds Activate Nick Senzel, Transfer Tyler Thornburg To 45-Day IL
The Reds announced Monday that center fielder Nick Senzel has been activated from the injured list, with right-hander Tyler Thornburg moving from the 10-day injured list to the 45-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot. Senzel, who’ll technically return as the 29th man for today’s doubleheader, has been out since Aug. 19. He’s starting the first game of today’s twin bill in center.
Senzel, 25, was the No. 2 overall pick back in 2016 and was out to a .244/.327/.489 start through 14 games and 53 plate appearances in 2020. He hit .256/.315/.427 with a dozen homers and 14 steals as a rookie last year. He’ll add another option to an outfield mix that has seen seen Jesse Winker break out as one of the league’s more productive hitters. Nick Castellanos, meanwhile, has faded after a blistering start to the season, while rookie Shogo Akiyama has gone the opposite route — heating up in September after a slow start to his big league career.
The 31-year-old Thornburg went on the 10-day injured list late last week due to an elbow sprain — the latest in a mounting series ailments for the talented but oft-injured righty. Thornburg allowed three runs and punched out 10 hitters in seven innings with the Reds this year before the latest issue popped up.
Thornburg looked to be a breakout bullpen piece for the Brewers back in 2016 when he tossed 67 frames of 2.15 ERA ball with a 90-to-25 K/BB ratio, but he’s been derailed by injuries since being traded to the Red Sox in the Travis Shaw deal that winter. He battled shoulder troubles in early 2017 before undergoing thoracic outlet surgery that summer — a procedure that kept him out until July 2018. Thornburg returned to Boston in 2019 but was sidelined by a hip impingement for much of the season as well. Details on his current injury are still sparse, but the move to the 45-day IL formally brings his 2020 season to a close. He crossed six years of big league service in 2020, so he’ll be a free agent this winter.
Nick Senzel Could Return Tomorrow
- Reds’ center fielder Nick Senzel has been on the injured list for undisclosed reasons since August 19. He’s nearing a return, manager David Bell told reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). Indeed, it’s possible Senzel returns for tomorrow’s doubleheader against the Pirates. The 25-year-old is hitting .244/.327/.489 in 53 plate appearances this year.
