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Reds Rumors: Torres, Gregorius, Castillo

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Shortstop stands out as an area of need for the Reds at the moment, and owner Bob Castellini has indeed pushed the front office to address it this offseason, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. The Reds even asked the Yankees for shortstop Gleyber Torres and then some in talks centering on right-hander Luis Castillo, but New York turned Cincinnati down, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

Cincy’s shortstop reps primarily went to Freddy Galvis and Jose Garcia in 2020, but the team can’t count on either as its solution in 2021. Galvis is a free agent, after all, while the 22-year-old Garcia may not be ready for prime time just yet. Garcia hadn’t advanced past High-A ball before the Reds promoted him last year, when he batted .194/.206/.194 without a home run in 68 plate appearances. He also notched far more strikeouts than walks (26 to one), and his 3 wRC+ ranked second to last among 388 major leaguers who amassed at least 60 trips to the plate.

Garcia’s first-year struggles seemingly set the stage for the Reds to at least find a veteran stopgap at short, though it’s unclear how aggressive they’ll be during what has so far been a payroll-cutting offseason in which they’ve already said goodbye to the likes of Raisel Iglesias and Archie Bradley. Moreover, several of their notable players – Castillo, Sonny Gray, Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez among them – have come up in trade speculation, while reigning Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer is a free agent who seems likely to sign with another team before next season.

The good news for the Reds is that this offseason’s free-agent class features a few proven starting shortstops, with Galvis, ex-Red Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons leading the charge. Gregorius is a possibility for the team at this point, Rosenthal relays. Reuniting with Gregorius would be a significant move in an NL Central division whose teams have made more notable subtractions than additions this offseason. As of now, aside from the last-place Pirates, it seems like just about anyone’s division to win.

Castillo, meanwhile, will “very likely” remain a Red, Heyman writes. There’s no reason for the Reds to part with Castillo for anything but an enormous offer, as he’ll make just $4.2MM in 2021 and has two more years of team control remaining after that.

Pitching Notes: Castillo, Reds, Anibal, Red Sox, Cora

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Much of the Reds’ offseason has been focused around moving players (i.e. trading Raisel Iglesias, non-tendering Archie Bradley) rather than adding, and eyebrows were raised last month when it was reported that Luis Castillo’s name was coming up in trade talks.  There wasn’t any indication that those talks were serious, however, and Reds VP/general manager Nick Krall issued a firm denial on the subject to reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon).  According to Krall, speculation about a Castillo trade is “completely false. We intend to have [Castillo] as a member of our rotation for 2021.”

Castillo and the Reds recently agreed to an arbitration-avoiding $4.2MM contract for 2021, and the right-hander is still under team control through 2023 thanks to two more years of arbitration eligibility.  Between this affordability, the three years of control, and Castillo’s front-of-the-rotation ability, there isn’t really any pressing reason for Cincinnati to move Castillo.  Since the Reds seems to be focusing on cutting payroll this winter, an argument could be made that Castillo could be attached to a deal that would get a bigger contract (i.e. Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos) off the books, but that would seem like an awfully extreme move.  One would imagine Castillo wouldn’t be traded unless the Reds were reversing course entirely and now looking to rebuild.

More pitching notes from around the league…

  • Julio Teheran’s showcase on Tuesday will include another Mato Sports Management client, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reports that Anibal Sanchez will also be throwing for scouts.  Like Teheran, Sanchez is looking to rebound from a rough 2020 season, as Sanchez posted a 6.62 ERA over 53 innings for the Nationals last year.  The Phillies were recently linked to Sanchez, but it has been an otherwise quiet winter for news about the 36-year-old.  Considering Sanchez was still delivering solid results as recently as 2019 (for the World Series champion Nats, no less), his market could start to pick up if scouts like what they see on Tuesday.  The Red Sox will have scouts on hand to see Sanchez and Teheran, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets.
  • Speaking of the Red Sox, manager Alex Cora noted that his team is still exploring more rotation additions.  “I’m going to keep saying it all the way until April 1 [Opening Day], this puzzle is not completed.  We have to be patient,” Cora said in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link).  That being said, Cora is also pleased with the current group of hurlers in Boston’s organization, saying that the Sox have more pitching depth now than they had in either the 2019 or 2020 seasons.  “Little by little, the front office did a good job during the season last year and [in] the offseason to add some quality arms, some intriguing arms,” Cora said.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Latest On Marcus Semien

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Over two months into free agency, shortstop Marcus Semien remains without a team. It’s not for lack of interest, however, as Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets that the Athletics, Phillies, Reds and Red Sox have all been part of negotiations with Semien “to some extent.” It’s isn’t known how serious any of those discussions have gotten, however.

Semien, 30, spent the previous six years in Oakland, where he was regularly an average or better starter. He reached a new level in 2019, an MVP-caliber season in which he didn’t miss a game and posted 7.6 fWAR with a .285/.369/.522 line and 33 home runs, but wasn’t able to replicate those otherworldly stats last year. Semien bounced back to a major degree as the year progressed, however, evidenced by a 64 wRC+ in the first half and a 126 mark in the second.

Even though the A’s made it known on multiple occasions during and after the season that they wanted Semien back, they did not give him an $18.9MM qualifying offer. Now, considering he could price himself out of the team’s range in free agency, it seems doubtful low-budget Oakland will win the bidding for Semien. Thanks in part to the pandemic, the A’s don’t seem as if they’ll spend much this winter.

Philadelphia and Cincinnati appear to be more realistic fits for Semien, who would certainly address their gaping holes at shortstop. The Phillies could plug him in to replace Didi Gregorius, another notable veteran shortstop who’s currently a free agent. Freddy Galvis is a free agent for the Reds, meanwhile, leaving Jose Garcia as at least the temporary front-runner to start for them next season. Garcia doesn’t appear ready for that role, though: He never played above High-A ball before last year, when he reached the majors and batted .194/.206/.194 with no home runs, 26 strikeouts and one walk in 68 plate appearances.

Unlike Oakland, Philadelphia and Cincinnati, Boston is targeting Semien as a second baseman, per Bowden. That isn’t surprising, as it was reported last month that teams have shown interest in Semien as an option at the keystone this offseason. Boston already has a set left side of the infield with shortstop Xander Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael Devers, but it still has to sort out second – a position that isn’t foreign to Semien. He played 77 games there as a minor leaguer and another 29 in the bigs with the White Sox from 2013-14.

Along with where he’ll go, an obvious question centering on Semien is how much it will take to sign him. When the offseason began, MLBTR predicted Semien would reel in a one-year, $14MM contract, but as Steve Adams wrote in November, others have been far more bullish in regards to his forthcoming deal. If teams are confident Semien is more the player he was in 2019 and in the second half of 2020, he could indeed collect a substantial payday over multiple years.

Latest On Reds’ Trade Discussions

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The Reds and Nationals are known to have discussed a possible deal around third baseman Eugenio Suarez, and the failure to complete a deal seems to hinge on the Nats’ unwillingness to part with top pitching prospects Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Rutledge and Cavalli were the Nats’ top draft choices in the past two drafts. It’s not a surprise that Washington would hold on tight, as their system isn’t known for tremendous depth, and they traditionally value starting pitching. Besides, ace Max Scherzer will be a free agent after this season, and at some point, the Nats will need to graduate top pitching talent in order to maintain the standard they have set in the rotation. Any deal with the Nats would probably have to center on Carter Kieboom. If the Reds believe in Kieboom’s ability to play shortstop, he would make sense as a starting point for a deal.

The Reds seem more open to the idea of moving Mike Moustakas or Nicholas Castellanos, but neither has generated as much trade interest as Suarez, tweets Heyman. Despite an uninspired 104 wRC+ in 2020, Suarez remains the Reds’ most-compelling bat. A .214 BABIP was down by almost 100 points from his career average, and a shoulder injury might have slowed his production. His 29.0 percent strikeout rate is a touch high, but Suarez still boasts patience (13.0 percent walk rate) and power (.268 isolated power), as well as long-term control on a reasonable contract. The 29-year-old Suarez will make $10.79MM in 2021 before three years at $11.29MM and a $15MM club option in 2025. Relative to Moustakas (three years, $16MM AAV with club option) and Castellanos (three years, $15.3MM AAV with mutual option), Suarez’s deal looks like a bargain, and he’ll be just 33-years-old at the end of the 2024 season.

The most likely place for the Reds to add from outside the organization remains shortstop, as their 2021 starting shortstop doesn’t appear to be on the 40-man roster at present, writes the Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans. The organization clearly does not view Senzel as an option there, and Jose Garcia likely needs more the in the minors after being rushed into action in 2020. That could mean trading for a shortstop, but with so many options still available on the market – Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Freddy Galvis, Didi Gregorius – free agency remains their likeliest route to add an infielder.

NL Central Notes: Carpenter, Alvarez, Cubs, Lindor, Reds, Eckstein

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After struggling in both 2019 and 2020, Matt Carpenter has reshaped his offseason training routine in advance of what he considers to be a make-or-break year or perhaps even his final year in the big leagues, Carpenter tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Carpenter’s contract with the Cardinals is up after the 2021 season, unless he records at least 550 plate appearances to trigger an $18.5MM vesting option for 2022.  “As far as guarantees, this is the last guaranteed trip to spring training, period, for me.  Maybe for any baseball team, let alone St. Louis,” Carpenter said.  “I think about that, and that’s why I say it’s such an important season for me personally.  And that’s not even to say whether I want to play past this season.  I just want to finish strong.”

Carpenter is entering his age-35 season, and he is likely correct in guessing that another tough year will greatly lessen his chances at anything beyond a low-cost MLB contract or even a minor league deal next winter.  Carpenter finished ninth in NL MVP voting as recently as 2018, but has since hit .216/.332/.372 over 661 plate appearances in 2019-20.  Between the Cardinals’ COVID-19 outbreak and the compressed schedule of make-up games once they returned to play, Carpenter didn’t feel the 2020 season was “a fair representation, hitting or pitching, good or bad” for the entire club.  Still, Carpenter knows he needs to get on track, saying “the last two seasons, in my eyes, our offense has been about a bat short….I have basically been the one bat missing.  I put a lot of the responsibility for the offensive woes the past two seasons on myself.”

More from the NL Central…

  • As rumors swirl about Kris Bryant trade talks between the Cubs and Mets, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that Chicago has a particular interest in Mets catching prospect Francisco Alvarez.  Currently ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 58th-best prospect in all of baseball, it isn’t surprising that the Cubs (and probably many other teams) would like to have Alvarez in their farm system, particularly if Willson Contreras might also soon be dealt away from Wrigleyville.  In regards to a Bryant trade, it seems unlikely that New York would deal Alvarez for just one year of Bryant’s service.  Even with James McCann now signed to a four-year deal, Alvarez might still be the Mets’ catcher of the future since he is only 19 years old, so the Mets surely have their eyes on grooming Alvarez to be ready by the time McCann’s contract is up.
  • “The Reds were not involved in making any push to acquire Francisco Lindor” before the Indians dealt Lindor to the Mets on Tuesday, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes.  Acquiring Lindor to fill their hole at shortstop would’ve been quite the pivot for the Reds, whose offseason focus to this point has largely been on cutting salary, between trading Raisel Iglesias to the Angels, non-tendering Archie Bradley, and being open to trade offers for many high-priced stars.  This isn’t to say that Cincinnati might not yet sign a shortstop from amongst the well-known free agent names still on the market, but Lindor was likely a bridge too far, given the prospect cost to pry him away from Cleveland and the likelihood that the Reds wouldn’t be able to sign Lindor to an extension beyond the 2021 season.
  • David Eckstein is leaving the Pirates after two years as a special assistant to the baseball operations department, according to Alex Stumpf of DK Pittsburgh Sports (Twitter link).  Eckstein made the move in order to spend more time with his family.  The former 10-league MLB veteran is best remembered for his role in helping both the 2002 Angels and 2006 Cardinals win the World Series, even capturing Series MVP honors with St. Louis.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/8/21

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The latest minor transactions from around the game…

  • The Giants have signed right-hander Jay Jackson to a minors contract, MLBTR has learned. Marc Delucchi was first to report that the two sides were close to a deal.  Jackson has seen some action in the majors as a member of the Padres (2015) and Brewers (2019), with whom he has combined for a 4.67 ERA alongside a 33.6 percent strikeout rate and a 12.5 percent walk rate in 34 2/3 innings. But Jackson has been big in Japan, where he has spent parts of four seasons (including 2020 with the Chiba Lotte Marines) and recorded a superb 2.16 ERA across 183 innings in Nippon Professional Baseball. Jackson returned stateside with the Reds last August, but he didn’t pitch for them in 2020.
  • The Reds have signed catcher Rocky Gale to a minor-league deal with an invitation to MLB spring training, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). Despite having played in parts of four MLB seasons, Gale has compiled just 37 career plate appearances at the highest level. However, the 32-year-old (33 in February) has a serviceable .279/.316/.359 slash line in parts of nine Triple-A campaigns.

Reds Acquire Art Warren For Cash Considerations

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The Reds have acquired right-hander Art Warren from the Rangers for cash considerations, both teams announced (Twitter links). Warren had been designated for assignment on December 26th, at which point it seemed fairly certain that Warren would latch on somewhere. The Reds make for a natural fit having moved out a couple of bullpen arms this winter, and it doesn’t hurt that Warren is an Ohio native. The 27-year-old will have an opportunity to compete for a spot in the Cincinnati bullpen.

The Rangers had claimed Warren off waivers from the Mariners, but subsequently designated him for assignment to make room on their 40-man roster for Kohei Arihara. The Rangers had claimed Warren only as recently as October 21, 2020.

Warren spent one day on the Mariners’ active roster in 2020 but did not make an appearance. He made six big league appearances for Seattle in 2019 after recording a 32 percent strikeout rate in back-to-back seasons in Double-A. Warren posted a 60.3 percent groundball rate across 31 2/3 innings in 2019. Conversely, his groundball rate at the same level in 15 2/3 innings the year before was just 39.4 percent. There’s a fair amount of year-to-year variance in Warren’s minor league track record, but there’s certainly enough to make him an interesting bullpen candidate for manager David Bell.

Perhaps more importantly for the Reds, he’ll earn the league minimum. The Reds non-tendered Archie Bradley and traded Raisel Iglesias earlier this winter, removing two proven high-leverage arms from their bullpen stable, presumably for financial reasons. Adding Warren is a low-key move that doesn’t immediately move the needle for the Reds, but there is potential for Warren to make an impact in 2021

Coaching Notes: Reds, Orioles

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The Reds have named Bryan Conger their new minor league pitching coordinator, per Bobby Nightengale of the Enquirer (via Twitter). Conger himself announced his hiring on Twitter. Conger spent the last two seasons coaching in the Rangers’ organization. The former head coach at Tarleton State, Conger has a history of data-driven innovation that fits the Reds’ ethos. J.J. Cooper of Baseball America wrote this about Conger when the Rangers initially hired him in January of 2019: “Individualization has been a key part of Conger’s approach. Each pitcher at Tarleton State had an individualized throwing program designed specifically for that pitcher. Conger viewed it as his job to use data as much as possible to help customize everything they did for each pitcher.” As the minor league pitching coordinator, Conger will have a broader scope at his fingertips than back in his Division II days, but the Reds no doubt value his personal approach.

  • Conger joines the Driveline/Reds family that also includes 25-year-old assistant pitching coach Eric Jagers. The former University of Iowa southpaw found his way to Driveline as an amateur pitcher struggling to stay healthy. Thoracic Outlet Syndrome further stymied his pitching career, importuning Jagers to commit early to a career in coaching, writes Bobby Nightengale of The Enquirer. Writes Nightengale, “The result was a meteoric rise through the sport. In three years, Jagers went from an injured college pitcher to the Cincinnati Reds’ Assistant Pitching Coach. At 25 years old, he’s one of the youngest coaches on any Major League staff.” Jagers takes over for Caleb Cotham – just 33-years-old himself – who was named the Phillies’ pitching coach this offseason.
  • In Baltimore, Chris Holt attempted to clarify his role for the upcoming season during a recent Zoom call, notes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Holt has been the Orioles’ Director of Pitching, but he will slide into the dugout this year as manager Brandon Hyde’s pitching coach. He’s keeping his original title, however, which presumably puts an awful lot on Holt’s plate. Holt has been preparing for this role switch for years, with the organization hoping that Holt could form a cohesive organizational philosophy that he himself would usher to the big leagues as some of their developing hurlers made it to the Show. That’s presumably where they are now, with a number of young pitchers like Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin, Bruce Zimmermann, Hunter Harvey, Michael Baumann, Zac Lowther, and Alexander Wells already on the 40-man roster. Top prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall are both approaching the bigs as well, though both are likely to start 2021 in Double-A.

 

Quick Hits: Reds, Akiyama, Rays, Hess

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The new year is upon us, and baseball is set to return to something resembling its pre-coronavirus self, but our time for reflection is not yet at an end. Let’s check in with a couple players looking back on (very) recent touchstones in their respective careers…

  • Shogo Akiyama had to make major adjustments to his swing during his first season with the Cincinnati Reds. The Japanese import explains the changes he made in this video linked to by Bobby Nightengale of The Enquirer (via Twitter). Essentially, Akiyama attributes his struggles at the plate to a timing issue, something he remedied by delaying his front leg lift. The change appeared to work. After producing just a 46 wRC+ with a triple slash of .192/.280/.247 in 83 plate appearances across 24 games in August, Akiyama rebounded with a 135 wRC+ over the rest of the regular season. Over 79 plate appearances in September and October, Akiyama slashed .317/.456/.365, helping the Reds into the playoffs.
  • As a minor league free agent this winter, former Orioles’ right-hander David Hess jumped quickly at the opportunity to join the Tampa Bay Rays, signing a minors deal early in December. The Rays made their pitch to Hess on the first day of free agency, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Said Hess, “One thing the Rays have built a track record of is developing guys and being specific in who they’re looking for, and so when they came in that quickly, we right away knew how serious they were. That meant a lot to us. That was just something, them being the first team and how interested they were, that tipped the scales in their favor in a pretty good way.” Hess owns a 5.96 ERA/6.41 FIP in 190 1/3 innings spanning three seasons in his career.
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