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Yankees Interested In Dylan Cease

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The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.

Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.

With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.

For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.

Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.

Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.

His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.

The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.

Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.

But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”

With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.

The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.

As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.

Reds Outright Austin Wynns

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The Reds announced they’ve assigned catcher Austin Wynns outright to Triple-A Louisville after he cleared waivers. Cincinnati designated him for assignment on Tuesday as the corresponding move to sign Frankie Montas. The Reds also announced they received cash considerations from the Giants to complete the December 19 trade that sent outfielder TJ Hopkins to San Francisco.

Trading Hopkins was coincidentally necessitated by the signing of Wynns to a free agent deal. The Reds inked the 33-year-old backstop to a one-year pact. He held his spot on the 40-man roster for roughly three weeks. Tuesday’s DFA again leaves Cincinnati with Tyler Stephenson and Luke Maile as the only catchers on the 40-man.

While it’s not the outcome Wynns had wanted, it’s likely one he knew was a possibility. He signed a split contract that would pay him at a $900K rate for time spent in the majors and $300K for whatever work he logs in Triple-A. Wynns is out of minor league options, so the only way he’d have gotten to Triple-A is if Cincinnati ran him through outright waivers at some point.

With over three years of big league service time, Wynns technically has the right to reject the assignment and return to the free agent market. Doing so would require forfeiting the $300K sum he locked in on the split deal, however. He’ll likely accept the assignment and report to big league Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. If he doesn’t land an Opening Day spot, he can start the year in Louisville while earning a decent salary for a minor league player.

Wynns stands as the top non-roster option if the Reds decide to go back to a three-catcher group — as they did last season with Stephenson, Maile and Curt Casali. Wynns is coming off a poor offensive showing in which he hit .208/.268/.277 over 51 games between the Giants, Dodgers and Rockies. He has never been much of a threat at the plate, but he has parts of five seasons of big league experience and rated as a solid defender last season. He thwarted an excellent 30.8% of stolen base attempts with career-best marks as a pitch framer.

Yankees Claim Bubba Thompson From Reds

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The Yankees announced that they have claimed outfielder Bubba Thompson off waivers from the Reds. The latter club designated him for assignment last week. The Yanks came into today with two open roster spots on their 40-man roster but have now claimed Thompson and reportedly signed right-hander Cody Poteet.

Thompson, 26 in June, has 92 games of major league experience, all of that coming with the Rangers over the past two seasons. He has hit .242/.286/.305 in his first 241 major league plate appearances, which translates to a wRC+ of 65. But he has 22 steals in 27 tries and Statcast considers his sprint speed to be elite, with just Elly De La Cruz and Bobby Witt Jr. ahead of him in 2023.

His hitting has been a bit better at the Triple-A level, where he’s hit .284/.347/.440 for a wRC+ of 95 dating back to the start of 2022. Since he has that elite speed and is considered a strong outfield defender as well, even a bit of offense could make him an intriguing player.

The Yankees have a crowded outfield with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham all set for regular or semi-regular playing time. Jasson Domínguez will be in the mix once he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Oswaldo Cabrera will likely be on the roster in a utility capacity while Everson Pereira and Oscar González are on the 40-man as well.

Thompson still has a couple of options, so the Yanks can keep in the minors to get regular reps and see if his bat develops. Even if that doesn’t happen, his speed and defense could help him carve out a bench role as a pinch runner or defensive replacement at some point. He still has less than a year of service time and is therefore still a ways away from free agency or even reaching arbitration.

MLBTR Podcast: Yamamoto Fallout, the Sale/Grissom Trade and Transaction Roundup

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Reds Sign Justin Bruihl To Minor League Deal

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The Reds announced that they have signed left-hander Justin Bruihl to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league camp.

Bruihl, 27 in June, made his major league debut with the Dodgers in 2021 and served as a frequently-optioned depth arm for that club until a few months ago. Through the end of July 2023, he had made 65 appearances for Los Angeles with a solid 3.65 earned run average. His 7.6% walk rate was fairly strong and his 44.7% ground ball rate around average, but his 15.6% strikeout rate in that time was quite low. Some good luck may have kept runs from crossing the plate, as his .263 batting average on balls in play was on the low side, and ERA estimators like his 4.48 FIP and 4.61 SIERA were less impressive than his actual ERA.

He was designated for assignment as the club needed some roster spots after acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox. He was flipped to the Rockies for cash but then struggled badly with his new club, allowing six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings over seven appearances. He was designated for assignment again in late August and passed through waivers unclaimed, eventually reaching free agency at season’s end.

The Reds have Sam Moll and Alex Young as southpaws slated for work in the big league bullpen but Bruihl will give them some experienced non-roster depth. If Bruihl can earn his way onto the roster at any point, he still has an option year remaining, meaning he could be sent back down to the minors without being exposed to waivers again.

Krall: Reds Likely Done With “Major Moves” For The Offseason

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The Reds have had a fairly busy offseason to this point, headlined by the surprise addition of switch-hitting infielder Jeimer Candelario on a three-year, $45MM deal. Beyond that, the club has addressed its pitching staff by picking up Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez as potential rotation options while shoring up the bullpen with Emilio Pagan. GM Nick Krall suggested to reporters, including C. Trent Rosencrans of The Athletic, today that the club is unlikely to make any more “major moves” this winter, though it’s possible they’ll look to bolster their bench or bullpen depth before Spring Training begins.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Reds don’t expect to make any other significant additions in free agency, as the club has made more than $100MM in salary commitments this offseason after much smaller offseasons in recent years. On the other hand, RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $101MM next season even after all of that spending. That still leaves a healthy amount of room relative to the club’s all-time high of $126MM back in 2019 (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts), though it does represent a significant step up from the club’s $87MM payroll in 2023 and roughly in he same ballpark as 2022’s $107MM figure.

Somewhat more surprising than the idea the Reds may not look to sign additional free agents of significance is the fact that Krall seemed to indicate the club doesn’t expect to swing a significant trade throughout the remainder of the offseason. The club’s infield depth is the envy of the rest of the league, and Cincinnati appears to have more position players ready for an everyday role in the majors than they can afford such an opportunity to. That’s caused Reds infielders such as Jonathan India to generate plenty of buzz on the offseason rumor mill, with India even landing at #11 on MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates.

Of course, an unexpected opportunity cropping up on the trade market or even via free agency is always possible, but it seems as though the club will now shift its focus to fine-tuning the roster with minor moves. Giving the aforementioned deep positional group the club has at its disposal, the bullpen seems like a more likely place for additions at the margins than the bench, though it’s at least conceivable the club could look to add a right-handed hitting outfielder to its bench mix to help balance the trio of Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, and Will Benson alongside Spencer Steer and Stuart Fairchild.

As for the bullpen, Alexis Diaz looked like a capable late-inning arm last season and a supporting cast of Pagan, Lucas Sims, and Sam Moll should help the Reds field a competitive relief corps next season. With that being said, the club’s bullpen ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of ERA (16th), FIP (23rd), and xFIP (29th). While the addition of Pagan and a healthier starting rotation could take some of the load off a relief corps that threw 652 1/3 innings last year, it’s easy to see where the group could benefit from further reinforcements. The Reds seem unlikely to play at the top of the relief market with players like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, and Robert Stephenson, though lower-level arms with late-inning experience such as Brad Hand or Adam Ottavino could make sense to add a veteran arm to the late-inning mix.

Reds Designate Austin Wynns For Assignment

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The Reds officially announced their signing of right-hander Frankie Montas, with catcher Austin Wynns designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Wynns, 33, was just signed by the Reds to a split deal a couple of weeks ago. He was added to the roster on a deal that will pay him a $950K salary for time spent in the majors and $300K in the minors. Given the nature of that deal and this quick transaction, it seems the club is hoping that Wynns will pass through waivers unclaimed and stick in the minors.

As a player with more than three years of MLB service time, Wynns has the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. But since he has less than five years of service, exercising that right would mean leaving the remaining money on the table. Since he is set to get paid decent amount even in Triple-A, he may decide to stay. For reference, the recent collective bargaining agreement signed for minors leaguers included a minimum salary of $35,800 for Triple-A players, well south of what Wynns is set to make.

If all this comes to fruition, the Reds will have an experienced backstop providing them with depth in a non-roster capacity. Wynns has played 232 major league games, having hit .226/.273/.324 in 653 plate appearances. That translates to a wRC+ of just 61, but he’s generally regarded as a solid framer and defender, though stronger with his throwing than his blocking.

The Reds now have just two catchers on their 40-man roster in Tyler Stephenson and Luke Maile. If an injury should occur, perhaps Wynns will be first in line to step up and fill in, though the club also signed P.J. Higgins to a minor league deal.

It’s not a guarantee that Wynns will go unclaimed, however. Last year, the Orioles agreed to a split deal with outfielder Jake Cave and similarly tried to pass him through waivers, though the Phillies interrupted those plans by claiming him. If some other club likes the idea of Wynns at a salary barely above the league minimum, perhaps they will grab him. Wynns is out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without occupying a roster spot.

Reds Sign Frankie Montas

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The Reds announced that they have signed righty Frankie Montas, to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2025. It’s reportedly a $16MM deal for Montas, who is represented by the Boras Corporation. He’ll make $14MM this year with a $2MM buyout on a $20MM mutual option.

With Nick Martinez signed to a two-year, $26MM deal last month, Montas is the second Boras client to join Cincinnati’s rotation mix.  While Martinez might still factor into the Reds’ bullpen plans, Montas is more of a clear-cut starter, assuming that he is back to full health after a lost 2023 season.

The Reds’ projected rotation of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft, and Nick Lodolo have a lot of potential but also a lot of injury questions and not a lot of big league experience.  As a result, the Reds were known to be looking for starting pitching help this winter, and have been linked to a wide array of names on both the free agent and trade fronts.  A trade has always seemed to be the likeliest route for pitching help given Cincinnati’s wealth of minor league depth, yet the Reds have also been linked to such free agents as Seth Lugo, Yariel Rodriguez, and old friend Sonny Gray.

Gray’s name might linger in the background of today’s signing, as the Reds would surely love to see Montas replicate Gray as a starter who got back on track in Cincinnati after struggling in the Bronx.  After finishing sixth in AL Cy Young Award voting with the A’s in 2021, Montas continued to pitch well in 2022 and was one of the more sought-after pitchers at the trade deadline.  Oakland ultimately moved Montas to the Yankees as part of a six-player trade, yet things went haywire for Montas almost as soon as the deal was completed.

Montas struggled to a 6.35 ERA over eight starts and 39 2/3 innings for the Yankees, as he tried to pitch through some shoulder problems that bothered him prior to the trade.  He spent some time on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation, which unfortunately set the stage for his nightmare of a 2023 campaign.  The right-hander ended up undergoing labrum cleanup surgery in February and pitched in just one game (1 1/3 innings on September 30) last year, at least giving himself some peace of mind health-wise as he entered the offseason.

The Yankees felt good enough about Montas’ shoulder that they had some interest in re-signing him this winter, yet Montas will now head to Cincinnati for a fresh start.  His deal almost exactly matched the one-year, $15MM pact that MLB Trade Rumors projected for Montas in our top 50 free agents list, with Montas sitting 44th in the ranking.  If $16MM seems high for a pitcher who basically missed an entire season, the price tag speaks to the high cost of pitching, and the possible upside Montas brings if he is back to his old self.

Montas showed flashes of his quality in posting a 3.13 ERA over 161 innings for Oakland during the 2018-19 seasons, yet the latter season was cut short by an 80-game PED suspension.  He also struggled during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign before delivering his first full top-tier season in 2021, with a 3.37 ERA and solidly above-average strikeout and walk rates over 187 innings.

Naturally there’s some risk for the Reds in this deal, as $16MM is a big expenditure for a team with a mid-level payroll and Montas isn’t a sure thing.  However, the risk is at least somewhat reduced as just a one-year splurge, plus Montas might have some extra value if he does return to his old form.  Should Montas pitch well, the Reds could issue him a qualifying offer next winter, and thus net a compensatory draft pick if Montas signed elsewhere.  Or, of course, Montas and the Reds might end up working out a longer-term contract themselves depending on how things play out in 2024.

Cincinnati’s payroll sits just under the $103MM mark after this signing, according to Roster Resource.  Considering that the Reds topped the $126MM payroll mark as recently as 2021 before their brief rebuild period, president of baseball operations Nick Krall might have a bit of extra spending capacity in what has already been a busy winter.  In addition to Montas and Martinez, the Reds also signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45MM deal, and reliever Emilio Pagan for two years and $16MM.  Cincinnati already emerged from its rebuild with an 82-win season in 2023 and now looks to challenge for the NL Central title, with these veteran signings buoying the club’s exciting core of young talent.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post (links to X) first reported the deal and that Montas would receive somewhere in the range of $15MM-$16MM on the one-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale added that the salary was indeed $16MM. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com relayed the full financial breakdown.

Reds Had Interest In Wade Miley

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The Reds’ search for starting pitching help has resulted in deals with Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez, while the team has been linked to several other pitchers who either remain available (in trades or in free agency) or have since landed elsewhere.  MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports that one of those now-signed pitching targets included Wade Miley, as Cincinnati had some talks with the veteran left-hander before Miley re-signed with the Brewers.

There’s plenty of familiarity between the two sides, as Miley pitched for the Reds in 2020-21 and posted a 3.55 ERA over 177 1/3 innings.  The Reds held a $10MM club option on his services for 2022, yet as part of a payroll cutback, Cincinnati put Miley on waivers (where he was quickly claimed by the Cubs) in order to part ways without even paying the $1MM buyout on that option.  Miley has since posted a 3.15 ERA in 157 1/3 innings with Chicago and Milwaukee since the start of the 2022 campaign, though injuries again limited his availability.

Miley received $8.5MM in guaranteed money in his one-year deal with the Brewers, and the Reds went beyond that price range in their one-year, $16MM deal with Montas.  With $106.2MM spent so far this winter, Cincinnati has been one of the offseason’s busier teams in free agency, and it seems possible the Reds might not be done with their efforts to bolster the pitching staff.

Latest On Clubs’ Interest In Yariel Rodriguez

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December 28: ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reports (on X) that Boston, Pittsburgh and Toronto have all shown interest in Rodriguez as a starter. Cincinnati, San Diego and the Yankees prefer the right-hander in a relief role. Rojas indicates that Rodriguez prefers to start, although there’s no indication he has officially ruled out any teams targeting him in a bullpen capacity.

December 27: The Reds and Red Sox are among the teams still showing interest in free agent right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, tweets Francys Romero. Last week, Romero reported that the Pirates, Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees were also in the running.

Cincinnati hasn’t been frequently tied to Rodriguez throughout the offseason. The Reds were among roughly half the league that sent scouts to evaluate the righty’s throwing session in the Dominican Republic on October 10, a few days after he’d been granted his release from the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons. There hasn’t been much to connect the sides since that point, although it’s not especially surprising that Cincinnati is involved on one of free agency’s younger pitchers.

The Reds have made two major league additions to the pitching staff. Swingman Nick Martinez signed for two years and $26MM, while reliever Emilio Pagán inked a two-year, $16MM deal. President of baseball operations Nick Krall indicated that Martinez will compete for a rotation spot but stopped short of calling him a lock for the season-opening five.

Rodriguez falls into a similar category, as there’s some question about whether he’ll stick in an MLB rotation. The 26-year-old worked out of the bullpen with the Dragons in his final NPB season in 2022. He turned in a stellar 1.15 ERA while striking out 27.5% of opponents over 54 2/3 innings. His 8.3% walk percentage was right in line with the MLB average.

Despite the strong results in relief, it’s likely whichever MLB team signs Rodriguez will give him an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot. He had started in Cuba’s top league before his stint in Japan, and he worked out of the rotation for the Cuban national team during last spring’s World Baseball Classic. Clubs that feel Rodriguez has mid-rotation upside could entertain a noteworthy contract. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke before the beginning of the offseason suggested Rodriguez could land a guarantee between $30MM and $50MM.

The Reds have a projected rotation of Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. Left-hander Brandon Williamson and Martinez stand as the top competitors for the #5 job. Aside from Martinez, it’s a generally young group. They’ve all shown promise at the MLB level, but each of Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft battled injuries last season. None of Abbott, Williamson nor Martinez have ever pitched a full season out of an MLB rotation. That’s also true of Rodriguez, of course, but the Reds could view his youth and ability to work multiple innings as a strong fit as they move firmly into win-now mode after their 2022 retool.

Boston has been linked to Rodriguez more frequently throughout the winter. The 6’1″ hurler held a workout in front of Sox’s and Padres’ evaluators last month. Boston is casting a wide net on the rotation front. While they’ve been tied to top-of-the-market hurlers like Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier recently wrote they appeared more focused on the middle tiers of the free agent class.

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