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Bill Plummer Passes Away

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Former major league catcher and manager Bill Plummer passed away this week, according to a report from The Associated Press. He was 76.

A Northern California native, Plummer entered the professional ranks in 1965 as an amateur signee of the Cardinals. He was plucked away by the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft three years later. Plummer made a brief big league debut with Chicago before being traded to the Reds as part of a deal for bullpen workhorse Ted Abernathy. Plummer spent eight years in Cincinnati, working behind Johnny Bench among the Big Red Machine teams of the 1970s.

The Reds won the National League pennant in 1970, ’72, ’75 and ’76. They were repeat World Series champions in the latter two of those seasons. Plummer didn’t appear in any of those series but was a respected defensive presence as the backup to one of the greatest catchers in league history. He finished his career with a 41-game stint for the Mariners in 1978. Plummer retired with a .188/.267/.279 line in a little more than 1000 plate appearances.

After collecting that pair of World Series rings as a player, Plummer moved into the coaching ranks. He managed in the Seattle farm system throughout the 1980s and was promoted to the big league staff in ’89. The Mariners hired him as their manager in 1992. Plummer led the team for one season but was dismissed after a disappointing 64-98 finish. Seattle hired Lou Piniella the following year. Plummer never got another big league managerial opportunity, but he continued coaching for various independent and minor league teams well into the 2010s.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Plummer’s family, loved ones, friends and former teammates.

Joey Votto Discusses Blue Jays, Reds, Free Agency

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Now that Joey Votto is officially a member of the Blue Jays, he spoke with multiple reporters (including the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, and The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath and C. Trent Rosencrans) to discuss his trip through free agency, and his eventual landing spot with his hometown team.

After a long offseason of waiting, the first baseman’s contract seemed to come together pretty quickly, as Votto said he called Jays GM Ross Atkins last week to discuss the eventual minor league deal.  Though Votto felt he might’ve been able to land a guaranteed contract elsewhere, the idea of a minors deal with the Jays in particular proved tempting as a challenge.

“I need the time to prepare and resharpen my game.  A goal of mine is to be fully prepared the second I return to major league competition.  The major league level is about execution,” Votto told McGrath and Rosencrans in a text message.

To this end, Votto is fully open to starting the season in Triple-A if he needs more time to ramp up.  In fact, he told Nicholson-Smith and company that he “signed the deal assuming that that was going to be the case.  I’m trying to prove I’m still a capable player and the last couple of seasons were not real.  And I have confidence that that will be the case.”

The six-time All-Star is entering his age-40 season, so there are some obvious questions about whether or not Votto can still be productive as he looks towards what would be his 18th Major League season.  It already seemed like Votto was starting to decline when he posted (by his past standards) subpar numbers in both 2019 and 2020, but he then rebounded with another big campaign in the 2021 season.  However, his performance dipped after over the last two seasons, seemingly due in part to a longstanding shoulder issue that became too painful for Votto to ignore.  He underwent rotator cuff surgery in August 2022, and hit only .204/.317/.394 over 618 total plate appearances over the last two seasons.

Perhaps the most important aspect is that Votto is feeling healthy as he enters spring camp, and that he is viewing his new assignment with the Blue Jays as a completely fresh start.  “I get to once again move towards, for the second time in my professional career, (trying to) make it to the major leagues.  And it excites me,” Votto said.  “It excites me to be in a hotel room in Florida, to take a shuttle or an Uber to the ballpark and be a minor-league player with an unknown number just trying my very best to make a team.  It invigorates me.  It’s what I feel I’ve been about, and it brings me great joy….I just I want to work and I want to compete and I want to fit in. I want to get along with guys, I want to be liked and I want to represent myself, my family and my country well.  And this is the perfect opportunity.”

While Votto has embraced being a minor league signing, he did think such an offer was going to eventually come from the Reds.  He told both McGrath/Rosencrans and Wittenmyer that his initial aim was to spend his entire career in Cincinnati, and even after the Reds declined their $20MM club option on his services for 2024, he figured he would eventually be offered a minors contract or a big league deal with a small guarantee by his longtime organization.

Instead, it seemed like the Reds were ready to move on to their next generation of young talent, as president of baseball operations Nick Krall even outright said in late January that “we don’t plan to bring [Votto] back as of now.”  Votto doesn’t seem to have any hard feelings, noting that “the Reds team is STACKED and there didn’t appear to be playing time for me so we had to pivot.”

As it turned out, Votto ended up being “grateful for the free agent experience,” as he told Wittenmyer.  “The vast majority of it was growth and learning about myself and things I need to change.”  Simply being on the open market was new for Votto, who never been a free agent due to his two prior extensions (a three-year, $38MM deal and his big ten-year, $225MM contract) with Cincinnati.

“There was a part of me that was scared, because it becomes uncharted waters for me,” Votto told Wittenmyer.  “It’s intimidating because I’d never as an adult been by myself.  I was always tied to an organization and specifically [the Reds].  But quickly, I was like, ’No, this is good.  You need this as a man, as an individual.  You need this to grow.  And what is the next step you need to take  Are you done?’ I answered that quickly: No.  So what’s the answer?  Let’s get to work.”

Reds Notes: Marte, Candelario, Lodolo, McLain, India

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The infield mix in Cincinnati got a bit less crowded yesterday when third baseman Noelvi Marte was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for Boldenone, a banned performance-enhancing substance. That loss of Marte figures to substantially impact the club’s plans in the first half of the season, as Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer notes that the 22-year-old was slated to start anywhere from six to nine of every ten games for the club this season. That leaves around 50 to 70 starts in the first half of the season to be accounted for, though the Reds fortunately have plenty of options at their disposal who will be able to help cover for Marte’s absence.

In particular, Goldsmith notes that offseason addition Jeimer Candelario is expected to get the lion’s share of playing time at third base, which would open up starts at first base for the likes of Christian Encarnacion-Stand and Jonathan India, as well as DH starts for outfielders such as Spencer Steer and Jake Fraley. While Cincinnati’s decision to not only decline to deal from the crowded infield mix in order to improve other areas of the roster, but also bolster said infield with the addition of Candelario was somewhat surprising at the time, in light of Marte’s suspension the choice to maintain the club’s depth ahead of the 2024 campaign appears to have been a wise one.

While Marte’s absence appears likely to increase the playing time available for several players, the specific positions where that playing time is less certain given the number of versatile players the club has at its disposal. Manager David Bell recently indicated to reporters (including Goldsmith) that Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain would remain focused on shortstop and second base, respectively, in light of Marte’s injury, while Spencer Steer will continue to be a regular presence in the club’s outfield mix. That being said, Bell also noted that Candelario still figures to see some time at first base.

Meanwhile, each of De La Cruz, McLain and even Steer are capable of playing all around the infield, and India figures to play a mix of first, second, third, and left field this season. With Encarnacion-Strand likely to get regular time between first base and DH, some DH starts likely to be offered to catcher Tyler Stephenson, and the likes of TJ Friedl, Will Benson, and Jake Fraley fighting alongside Steer for regular time in the outfield, the club still has more regulars competing for playing time than room in the starting lineup. While it should be noted that injuries and under-performance can allow those playing time issues to resolve themselves naturally throughout the season, it appears that the club’s positional mix is largely healthy entering the season.

That even goes for India and McLain, despite the fact that the pair have both largely sat out games to this point in the spring. India made his spring debut just yesterday after being slowed entering camp by a tear of his plantar fasciitis, as debut that was right in line with what was expected last month. MLB.com notes that Bell has indicated to reporters that India should have “plenty of time” to prepare himself for Opening Day later this month, and it seems reasonable to expect that the same would apply to McLain, who Bell indicated is slated to make his spring debut tomorrow. India will look to build on a 2023 season that saw him slash a league average .244/.338/.407 in 119 games while battling the aforementioned plantar fasciitis, while McLain figures to be a key fixture of the club’s lineup after slashing an excellent .290/.357/.507 in 403 trips to the plate during his rookie season last year.

Also poised to make his spring debut tomorrow is left-hander Nick Lodolo, who Goldsmith adds is “probably not” in position to make a start during the first week of the regular season, per Bell, with the Reds targeting a potential first start of the regular season on April 9 against the Brewers. That would leave Lodolo poised to miss the first two turns through the starting rotation to open the season, meaning the club could start the season with a rotation of Hunter Greene, Frankie Montas, Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Martinez. It’s a big season for Lodolo, who struggled to a 6.29 ERA and 5.79 FIP in seven starts last year before missing the remainder of the 2023 season with a stress reaction in his left tibia. Prior to his injury-marred 2023 season, Lodolo entered the 2022 campaign as a consensus top-40 prospect in the sport and made 19 starts for the Reds, pitching to a 3.66 ERA with a 3.90 FIP in 103 1/3 frames.

Rangers Claim Jose Barrero Off Waivers From Reds

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The Rangers announced that infielder Jose Barrero was claimed off waivers from the Reds.  Reporter Francys Romero (X link) revealed earlier today that Barrero was heading to Texas, though Romero indicated that the transaction was a trade rather than a waiver claim.  In a corresponding move, Texas placed right-hander Carson Coleman on the 60-day injured list, as Coleman will be out until at least midseason recovering from Tommy John surgery.

It wasn’t long ago that Barrero was seen as a building block prospect, with Baseball America ranking him as the 33rd-best minor leaguer in the sport prior to the 2022 season.  However, Barrero struggled badly at the plate in both Triple-A and in the big leagues in 2022, even though he got back on track in the minors with a nice .258/.333/.540 slash line with Triple-A Louisville in 2023.  Barrero is now out of minor league options, and since several other Reds infielders have now passed him on the depth chart, Cincinnati apparently viewed the 25-year-old as expendable.

Barrero has hit only .186/.242/.255 over 447 career plate appearances in the majors, and it remains to be seen if he can produce even passable numbers against big league pitching.  Still, it wouldn’t be the first time that a post-hype prospect has become a late bloomer after a move to a new organization, and Barrero’s Triple-A numbers indicate that he hasn’t entirely lost his batting eye.

Even beyond the hitting contributions, Barrero also offers good speed (69 steals in 87 attempts during his minor league career) and quality defense at multiple positions.  Barrero has mostly played shortstop during his pro career, but has also gotten some action as a second baseman and even in center field, as the Reds looked for creative ways to find playing time for their many infielders.

Barrero’s versatility is a benefit to a Rangers team that has some early questions within their infield.  First baseman Nathaniel Lowe is battling an oblique strain and might need to start the season on the 10-day injured list.  Josh Jung was sidelined with a minor calf strain three weeks ago and is showing improvement, though isn’t yet back to full baseball activity.  The duo of Ezequiel Duran and Josh H. Smith can cover third base if Jung needs to miss any regular-season time, though Duran might be needed at first base in Lowe’s absence, Barrero can help pick up the slack.

Matt Duffy and Jared Walsh are also in camp on minor league deals and top prospect Justin Foscue seems ready for his MLB debut, though Barrero’s presence now gives the Rangers more depth to work with as Opening Day approaches.  Since Barrero is out of options, Texas would have to either carry him on the 26-man roster or expose him to waivers in order to send him back down to Triple-A, and this status could make it a little tricky for Barrero to break camp with the team depending on how the Rangers want to line up their roster.

Noelvi Marte Receives 80-Game Suspension After Positive PED Test

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The MLB commissioner’s office announced today that Reds infielder Noelvi Marte has received an 80-game suspension without pay after testing positive for Boldenone, a banned performance enhancing substance. “The Reds fully support Major League Baseball’s drug policy and its penalties,” the club said in a statement. “We will have no further comment.” Marte will be on the restricted list until the first 80 games of the regular season are completed.

Marte, 22, was one of several exciting young position players to debut with the Reds last year. An international signing of the Mariners out of the Dominican Republic, he was one of four players that came to the Reds in the 2022 trade that sent Luis Castillo to Seattle. He slashed .279/.358/.454 in the minors last year, earning himself a call-up in mid-August. He then hit .316/.366/.456 in his first 123 major league plate appearances while splitting his time between shortstop and third base.

Marte was coming into the 2024 campaign as a consensus top 50 prospect in the sport and set to be a key part of the left side of the Cincinnati infield. Instead, he will sit out the first half of the season while serving his suspension.

As mentioned, the Reds have been graduating a number of prospects to the majors lately and should have plenty of options to cover for Marte’s absence. Matt McLain can play either middle infield spot while Elly De La Cruz could play either spot on the left side. Jeimer Candelario and Christian Encarnacion-Strand can play the corner infield spots.

Spencer Steer can bounce all over the diamond but may end up in left field with the infield logjam, even without Marte. Jonathan India has been a second baseman for the most part but has been getting work at first and in the outfield due to the club’s bevy of infielders. Catcher Tyler Stephenson has some experience at first base. Even if Steer and India end up spending more time on the infield, the outfield still has TJ Friedl, Will Benson, Jake Fraley and Stuart Fairchild.

How the club manages their roster without Marte remains to be seen. For him personally, this figures to push back his free agency and perhaps his qualification for arbitration as players do not accrue service time while on the restricted list. He currently has 44 days of MLB service time but this suspension will prevent him from getting over the one-year mark in 2024.

Injury Notes: Scherzer, Donovan, Lodolo, Chang

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Max Scherzer is one of a trio of key Rangers starters who’ll open the season on the injured list. The three-time Cy Young winner underwent surgery in mid-December to repair a disc herniation in his back. The team announced at the time that the injury would keep him out of action into June or July.

It appears things are going well in the early stages of Scherzer’s rehab process. Manager Bruce Bochy told MLB Network this week the team envisions the star righty being back on an MLB mound by June (X link). The veteran skipper said that’s “a little bit earlier” than the team initially expected. Bochy indicated the club was shooting for a July return for offseason signee Tyler Mahle and a potential August timetable on Jacob deGrom, both of whom are working back from Tommy John procedures.

A few other health notes around the league:

  • Brendan Donovan is preparing for a rebound after his 2023 season was cut short. An injury to his throwing arm initially required the Cardinals infielder to move to designated hitter. With the team out of contention by the trade deadline, Donovan shut things down and underwent season-ending surgery. While that was initially reported as a flexor tendon repair in his forearm, Donovan clarified to John Denton of MLB.com that he actually had an internal brace procedure to fix the UCL in his elbow (on X). The 27-year-old is back in action this spring and should split most of his time with Nolan Gorman between second base and DH.
  • Reds starter Nick Lodolo was limited to seven appearances in 2023 because of a stress reaction in his left tibia. That bothersome issue kept him out of action from mid-May on. The southpaw apparently isn’t quite at 100%. Lodolo has yet to make his Spring Training debut because of residual leg discomfort on days after his bullpen or live batting practice sessions, manager David Bell told reporters (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds are sending Lodolo for additional testing on the bone before deciding on the next step in his build-up process. That’s at least somewhat alarming, although Bell said the team is still hopeful that Lodolo will avoid opening the season on the injured list.
  • The Rays lost one of their depth infielders to what’ll be a fairly significant injury. Yu Chang will be out six to eight weeks after suffering an oblique strain, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (relayed on X). That was the concern when the team revealed that Chang was dealing with left side soreness earlier in the week. The defensive specialist is in camp on a minor league contract. He had a shot at securing an Opening Day bench spot, particularly with Taylor Walls opening the season on the IL, but that’s no longer in play. The Rays have declared José Caballero their expected starter at shortstop. Recent free agent pickup Amed Rosario is on hand as a multi-positional option who’d likely be Caballero’s primary backup.

NL Central Notes: India, Ashby, Santana, Pirates

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Plantar fasciitis sidelined Jonathan India last summer, and the injury is still impacting the Reds infielder’s availability as Spring Training begins.  Manager David Bell told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith and other reporters that India isn’t slated to appear in a game until March 7 or 8, as India’s plantar fasciitis tore during the offseason and is still causing him some discomfort.  On the plus side, the tear means that India won’t need to undergo surgery on his foot, and Bell said that India is still able to take part in baseball activity as he builds up to being game-ready.

Health is just one of many uncertainties hanging over India as he begins his fourth Major League season.  Already the subject of frequent trade rumors due to Cincinnati’s plethora of up-and-coming infield talent, India looks to be moving into a utility role if he remains with the Reds, as he could be playing all over the infield, at DH, and perhaps in left field.

Other items from around the NL Central…

  • Aaron Ashby is eager to be back after missing virtually all of the 2023 season due to arthroscopic surgery on his throwing shoulder.  Describing the procedure to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Ashby said “I essentially had some calcified muscle on my rotator cuff, and they went in there and clipped it right off.  Once I got out of surgery the doctor was like, ’This was best-case scenario for you.’  It’s a minimal surgery in terms of what they did, but a shoulder surgery is a shoulder surgery, and it’s tricky at times.”  The southpaw’s only game action in 2023 was seven innings of minor-league rehab work in September, but he has been making good progress in Spring Training and is hoping to win a spot in the Brewers rotation, though Rosiak notes that bullpen work could help ease Ashby back into regular activity.
  • Carlos Santana had interest in returning to the Pirates as a free agent this winter, with Santana telling Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he expressed this to the team when he was traded to the Brewers prior to last summer’s trade deadline.  The Bucs still had some interest during the offseason even after signing Rowdy Tellez to ostensibly fill the void at first base, but Santana didn’t know why an agreement wasn’t reached.  “My agent has a very good relationship with the team, but he didn’t tell me anything.  I wanted to come back, but there was nothing going on,” the first baseman said.  Santana instead joined the Twins on a one-year, $5.25MM deal, and the Pirates will head into 2024 with Tellez and Connor Joe as the first base platoon and Andrew McCutchen returning as the primary DH.
  • This could be something of a tough read for Pirates fans, but The Athletic’s Stephen J. Nesbitt and Ken Rosenthal details some of the missteps that have slowed the team’s rebuild, such as a lack of success in international signings and some instances of a disconnect between traditional baseball teachings and the more modern approach of GM Ben Cherington.  However, the largest issue is naturally the team’s lack of spending under owner Bob Nutting, as there is less margin for error for Cherington’s front office when operating within a tight budget.  Nesbitt and Rosenthal’s piece was published a day before the Pirates announced a five-year, $77MM extension with Mitch Keller, which is one instance of how the Bucs have been slightly more willing to spend in order to lock up young cornerstone players.

Reds, Mike Ford Agree To Minor League Deal

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TODAY: The Reds officially announced their deal with Ford, and MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (via X) has the contractual details.  Ford will earn $1.3MM if he makes the big league roster, and another $125K is available in bonus money.  Ford can opt out of his contract on March 23 if he hasn’t been promised a spot on the Opening Day roster.

FEBRUARY 23: The Reds have agreed to a minor league deal with first baseman/designated hitter Mike Ford, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The ZS Sports client would earn $1.3MM in the big leagues and can pick up another $125K worth of incentives on the deal, which contains opt-out dates both during spring training and during the regular season.

Ford, 31, posted huge power numbers with the Mariners in 2023, slashing .228/.323/.475 with 16 homers in just 251 trips to the plate. That power was accompanied by an above-average 9.6% walk rate but also a bloated 32.3% strikeout rate. The former Yankee farmhand has long had plus power and questionable contact rates, so the 2023 season wasn’t out of the norm in that regard. However, last season also represented Ford’s longest and most productive stretch in the big leagues. He’d never reached even 200 plate appearances in a major league season prior.

The left-handed-hitting Ford hasn’t been allowed to face lefties much in his career but torched them in 24 plate appearances last year and has actually fared better against fellow southpaws in his career at large. It’s only 108 plate appearances, but he’s a .268/.343/.577 hitter versus lefties compared to .200/.303/.389 against righties (in a much larger sample of 611 plate appearances).

Cincinnati already has more infielders than infield at-bats available — so much so that Spencer Steer is being moved to left field on a full-time basis in 2024. Even still, the Reds have Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan India, Noelvi Marte, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand in line to rotate around the infield and throughout the DH spot. Ford gives Cincinnati a left-handed depth option who can handle first or DH work in the event of injuries or some regression from any of its promising young infielders. As it stands, Candelario, Encarnacion-Strand and India are in line to see the most action at first base and DH, but a strong spring could thrust Ford into that mix — or, considering the spring opt-out date(s) in the deal, at least serve as an audition for another club seeking some lefty-hitting thump.

Reds Sign Tony Kemp To Minor League Deal

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TODAY: The Reds officially announced their deal with Kemp.  MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (via X) reports that Kemp will earn $1.75MM if he makes Cincinnati’s active roster, with another $750K in bonuses available.  Kemp can opt out of his deal on March 23 if he hasn’t been promised a spot on the Opening Day roster.

FEBRUARY 23: The Reds have signed infielder/outfielder Tony Kemp to a minor league deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The Ballengee Group client also receives an invite to big league camp.

Kemp, 32, is coming off a down year with the Athletics. He walked more than he struck out, 10.5% rate to 9.5%, but didn’t do much damage when he put the ball in play. He slashed just .209/.303/.304 for a wRC+ of 77. The baseball gods may have been frowning on him a little bit, as his .221 batting average on balls in play was well below the .297 league average last year. But on the other hand, Kemp’s never been a huge threat with the bat, with poor career metrics in terms of exit velocity, hard hit rate and barrel rate.

But there are some attractive attributes as well, including defensive versatility. He has over 2,000 innings of big league experience at second base and left field, in addition to brief time at the other two outfield spots and shortstop. He also racked up double-digit steal totals in each of the past two seasons.

The Reds are loaded with position-player talent all over the diamond, with Jeimer Candelario, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, TJ Friedl, Noelvi Marté, Jonathan India, Will Benson, Tyler Stephenson, Jake Fraley all battling for playing time. But many of the guys in that group are still fairly young and inexperienced. If any of them have some sort of setback in terms of results, the club would probably prefer they get regular reps in the minors as opposed to sitting on the big league bench.

The club has also signed veteran infielders like Josh Harrison, Erik González, Hernán Pérez and Mark Mathias to minor league deals. Kemp will jump into that mix and try to play his way into a veteran bench role at some point.

Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?

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The National League Central is arguably the tightest division in the majors right now. That’s subjective but borne out by projection systems. The FanGraphs projected standings have all five teams currently slated for between 83 and 77 wins, the smallest spread from first to last out of the six divisions. The PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus aren’t quite as tight, with a spread of 11.7 games from first to last, but that’s still narrower than any other division in the league.

Last year, the Brewers took the division fairly easily, going 92-70 and finishing nine games up on the second-place Cubs. But a lot has changed since then and there could still be more changes to come. The “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned, as do several other free agents. One of those players joining an NL Central club could change the calculation but let’s take a look at where things stand now, in order of last year’s standings.

Brewers: 92-70 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79

The reigning champions have undergone some significant changes, particularly in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late last year, with the rehab putting his 2024 season in jeopardy. He was non-tendered and re-signed but won’t be a factor until late in the upcoming season, if at all. On top of that, the club traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, meaning they are now without both of their co-aces from recent years.

That makes the rotation clearly weaker than it has been in previous seasons, even though they did acquire some reinforcements. DL Hall came over in the Burnes trade and the Brewers will give him a chance to earn a rotation job. They also re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea in addition to bringing in Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to back up Freddy Peralta, who has now been vaulted to the top spot. Prospects Jacob Misiorowski and Robert Gasser could push for roles during the season.

While the starting rotation has clearly been diminished, the lineup should be better. They didn’t lose any core pieces from last year’s position player mix while they have signed free agents Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez for some extra thump. Prospect Jackson Chourio should be up to make his debut this year while other young players like Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang will hopefully continue to take steps forward. Joey Ortiz, who came over in the Burnes deal alongside Hall, could seize a role on the infield.

Cubs: 83-79 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 80.8

The Cubs have been retooling for a few years but just narrowly missed a return to the postseason in 2023. Their finished 83-79, just one game behind the Diamondbacks and Marlins, who got the last two Wild Card spots. They then saw Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and Marcus Stroman become free agents, subtracting two regulars from the lineup and a starter from the rotation. Candelario since jumped to the Reds and Stroman to the Yankees, though Bellinger is still out there.

In the rotation, Stroman has effectively been replaced by the signing of Shota Imanaga. The Cubs signed him in January and it’s hoped that he can supply at least some mid-rotation production to make up for the loss of Stroman, slotting in next to Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. A bounceback from Taillon could arguably make the rotation even better this year. The same could be said about a step forward from rookie Jordan Wicks, who debuted last year.

In the lineup, the Cubs are hoping that Michael Busch can be a difference maker. Acquired from the Dodgers in an offseason trade, he has always hit well in the minors but was blocked from seizing a role on his previous club. He’ll take over the first base spot, which was a bit of a hole for the Cubs last year. Bringing back Bellinger to center field still seems possible, but until it happens, the plan appears to be to count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to seize a job. The youngster is considered a great defender but his bat is questionable. Mike Tauchman is on hand if PCA doesn’t make a case for himself.

Signing Chapman to take over third could be a logical move but it’s also possible the club could slot Christopher Morel there. He has an exciting amount of power in his bat and his throwing arm, but concerns about his defense and propensity for strikeouts. Still, the bar is not too high for him to be better than guys like Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom.

Reds: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 79 wins in 2024, PECOTA 78.7

A surge of young position player talent was almost enough to vault the Reds into the playoffs last year. They did that despite a team-wide ERA of 4.83 and and 5.43 mark from their starting rotation. No significant contributors to the 2023 club reached free agency, so even just a bit of internal improvement could make them a contender.

But the Reds weren’t just going to rely on their incumbent options, as they have been fairly active this offseason. They added Candelario to their position player mix despite already having plenty of bats for their lineup. That should give them some cover for any of their young players suffering some regression or an injury.

They also bolstered the pitching staff which, as mentioned, was an issue last year. Free agents Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter were all signed to the roster. Montas is coming off a lengthy injury absence but was quite effective the last time he was healthy. Martínez could be a back-end addition for the rotation or he might wind up in the bullpen with Pagán and Suter. They could also get better just via health, as no one on the club logged 150 innings last year as each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft spent time on the IL, while Andrew Abbott didn’t debut until midseason.

Pirates: 76-86 in 2023, FG projects 77 wins in 2024, PECOTA 73

Somewhat similar to the Reds, the Pirates also rode a wave of young talent last year, though it didn’t have the same staying power. They were in first place in the division as late as June 15 but faded as the season wore on and finished outside contention.

They were facing almost no roster losses, as their most significant free agents from 2023 were Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez. McCutchen re-signed while Velasquez only made eight starts last year anyway due to elbow surgery. But they faced other challenges as right-hander Johan Oviedo and catcher Endy Rodríguez both required UCL surgery this offseason and will miss all of 2024.

With Rodríguez out, the club is hoping Henry Davis can pivot back behind the plate and take over. They signed veteran Yasmani Grandal as a bit of insurance in case things don’t work out with Davis. They grabbed a couple of veteran starters as well in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales, hoping that duo can over for the losses of Oviedo and Velasquez as well as the struggles of Roansy Contreras. The impending debut of prospect Paul Skenes could also help in that department as well, with Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler perhaps not far behind.

The lineup hasn’t drastically changed, with Rowdy Tellez brought in as a bounceback candidate. Perhaps their most impactful lineup upgrade could be the health of Oneil Cruz, who missed most of 2023 due ankle surgery. They also signed Aroldis Chapman to help David Bednar form a lockdown late-inning duo.

Cardinals: 71-91 in 2023, FG projects 83 wins in 2024, PECOTA 84.7

Many predicted the Cards to win the division last year but it clearly did not happen. Plenty of things went wrong, particularly on the pitching side of things, and they ended up in the basement. The team-wide ERA of 4.83 was better than just five teams in the majors, with the 5.08 rotation ERA even worse. Adam Wainwright’s swan song turned out to be ear-splitting while Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty also struggled. Depth guys like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford were all bad to varying degrees.

Remaking the rotation was the clear priority this winter and they have been active in that department. They quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson at the start of the offseason to replace Flaherty, Montgomery and Wainwright. Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Tekoah Roby and Drew Rom were all acquired at last year’s deadline and could make the emergency depth stronger. Victor Santos was added this offseason as part of the Tyler O’Neill trade.

Not too much has changed on the position player side of things. As mentioned, O’Neill was shipped out but the club is hoping to replace him internally. The emergence of Masyn Winn at shortstop means that Tommy Edman is probably now an outfielder full-time, assuming Winn produces better results than he did in his debut last year. Bounceback performances, particularly from Nolan Arenado, will be key. In the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton were traded last summer. The Cards traded for Andrew Kittredge and signed Keynan Middleton to try to make up for those two departures.

Compared to the other divisions in the big leagues, this one is the hardest to decide on a clear favorite. The Brewers are the defending champs but have lost their two aces. Can the extra offense make up for that? Was it a rare blip that the Cardinals were so bad last year? Have the Cubs done enough to get over the hump? Can the Reds or Pirates get enough improvement from their young players to surge ahead?

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