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Reds Notes: Candelario, India, Yankees

By Darragh McDonald | December 11, 2023 at 4:34pm CDT

The free agency of infielder Jeimer Candelario concluded in surprising fashion recently, with the Reds agreeing to terms with him despite a pre-existing infield logjam. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently took a look at the club’s situation in a pair of columns, noting that the club expects Candelario to play some second base but also that his signing doesn’t increase the chances of Jonathan India being traded.

Candelario has spent his entire major and minor league career playing first and third base, but never at the keystone. His only experience at that position, according to his Baseball Reference page, was two innings of work during winter ball in the 2020-2021 season of the Dominican Professional Baseball League. Despite that lack of experience, the Reds may be willing to put him there in order to maximize versatility. President of baseball operations Nick Krall also recently said that India could perhaps see some time at first.

As Wittenmyer points out, despite the apparent embarrassment of riches on the Cincinnati infield, Candelario and India are the only ones with more than a year of major league experience. Spencer Steer debuted in 2022 but he seems ticketed for a full-time move to the outfield. Each of Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marté and Christian Encarnacion-Strand debuted in 2023. That could still qualify as a surplus since they all looked to be in fairly good form in 2023, to varying degrees, but it’s also within the realm of possibility that someone in that group ends up enduring some kind of sophomore slump. Then there’s the ever-present possibility of a significant injury completely changing the calculus.

The focus on playing multiple positions should help the club overcome any such development. Candelario can take the corners and perhaps second base as well, if such a move is required. India could be at second and maybe first base will be a possibility as well. McLain can take either middle infield spot while De La Cruz and Marté have spent significant time at the positions on the left side, with brief stints at second base as well. Encarnacion-Strand is mostly a first baseman but has appeared at third base and in the outfield corners.

The Reds are still on the hunt for some pitching, and might end up pulling the trigger on a deal that subtracts from this group. They’ve had interest in pitchers like Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber and Dylan Cease, none of whom will be just given away by their current club. In terms of leverage in trade negotiations involving those players, it would be in the best interest of Krall and his club to portray themselves as not being motivated to make a trade. But there’s also logic to having extra depth and letting a meritocracy distribute the playing time as the season rolls along.

India was already viewed by some observers as expendable even before Candelario was added into the mix. With this news that Candelario might spend some time at the keystone, that would seem to only make him more redundant but Wittenmyer relays that both players are in Cincy’s plans for 2024.

Wittenmyer also notes that the Yankees were in on Candelario before they finalized the Juan Soto deal. Once that trade was completed, it allowed the Reds to take the lead with Candelario. That would perhaps suggest the Yanks had some willingness to bump DJ LeMahieu into a utility role or perhaps then put Gleyber Torres on the trading block. But after the club got the offensive boost they were looking for by remaking their outfield with the additions of Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo, manager Aaron Boone announced that LeMahieu would man the hot corner for them in 2024.

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Cincinnati Reds New York Yankees Notes Jeimer Candelario Jonathan India

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Reds Sign Jeimer Candelario To Three-Year Deal

By Nick Deeds and Steve Adams | December 11, 2023 at 3:30pm CDT

The Reds officially announced the signing of third baseman Jeimer Candelario to a three-year contract with a club option for 2027. Candelario, a client of Premier Talent Sports and Entertainment, is guaranteed $45MM. The option could take the total to four years and $60MM.

Candelario, 30, is coming off one of the finest seasons of his career, having turned in a combined .251/.336/.471 batting line with 22 home runs (a career-high), 39 doubles, three triples and an 8-for-9 showing in stolen base attempts. That production came in a season split between the Nationals, who signed him to a one-year $5MM deal after the Tigers non-tendered him last winter, and the Cubs, who originally signed Candelario, traded him to Detroit in 2017, and reacquired him this past July.

Prior to his big league debut, Candelario was a touted prospect who ranked near the top of the farm systems in both Chicago and Detroit. He enjoyed an impressive rookie showing in 2017 (.283/.359/.425 in 38 games) but struggled to replicate that production in 2018 and saw his offense crater in 2019. Candelario bounced back with the Tigers both in 2020 and 2021, but Detroit cut him loose after a down year in 2022, wherein he posted a .217/.272/.361 slash in 467 plate appearances. Though Candelario’s time with the Tigers came to an unceremonious end, the switch-hitter has now played at a roughly three- to four-WAR pace in three of his past four seasons between the 2020 season, when he hit .297/.369/.503 in the shortened 60-game campaign, and his strong showings in 2021 and 2023.

That performance has positioned him nicely as one of the offseason’s top positional free agents. MLBTR ranked him thirteenth on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list while projecting him for a four-year, $70MM deal. Only Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and Teoscar Hernandez ranked higher than Candelario among free agent position players this offseason. Our projection came in higher than Candelario’s actual guarantee, which saw him receive a slightly lower AAV and one less guaranteed year than we projected him for.

While the Reds are an unexpected fit for Candelario at first glance, given the club’s glut of young infield talent, they were first linked to him several weeks ago. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported this morning that the Reds met with Candelario’s reps twice during this week’s Winter Meetings and could look to add Candelario to the roster, thus pushing utilityman Spencer Steer to the outfield and possibly opening the door for the Reds to deal an infielder for rotation help. With Candelario, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all seemingly lined up for regular playing time on the infield dirt, it’s possible that Jonathan India or Noelvi Marte could find themselves dangled in trade talks as the odd man out, with the other likely getting regular reps at DH.

That the Reds are poised to enjoy such an embarrassment of riches around their infield could certainly behoove them if they look to trade from their depth to address other areas of need on the roster. This offseason’s positional class of free agents is among the weakest of the past several years, and has left plenty of teams on the lookout for potential upgrades to their lineup. The Reds, by contrast, are in need of pitching upgrades (even after landing right-handers Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan late last month) after posting the league’s third-worst rotation ERA (5.73) and landing in the bottom six in terms of overall team ERA (4.83).

To that end, it’s hardly a surprise that the Reds have been connected to the likes of right-handers Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, Shane Bieber of the Guardians, and Dylan Cease of the White Sox in trade talks this offseason. Any of those front-of-the-rotation arms would represent a major improvement over Cincinnati’s current rotation, which currently figures to be headlined by youngsters Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott. If the Reds are indeed successful in leveraging their excess infield depth to land an ace-caliber arm for the rotation, signing Candelario will have allowed the club to make such a deal without dealing more significant damage to a promising young core of hitters, similarly to how the Marlins shored up their rotation depth by signing Johnny Cueto just days before shipping Pablo Lopez to Minnesota in a package that brought back Luis Arraez last winter.

While the $15MM average annual value of Candelario’s deal makes the club’s new infielder their most expensive asset, the signing only boosts the Reds’ projected payroll to $86MM for 2024, according to RosterResource. That’s roughly in line with the payroll the club ended the 2023 season with, and a far cry from their all-time high of $126MM (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) back in 2019. In other words, the Reds should have plenty of room to make additional moves to shore up the club on the heels of an 82-win 2023 season that saw them finish just two games back of an NL Wild Card spot, even after adding Candelario to the mix.

Mike Rodriguez first reported the Reds and Candelario were in advanced discussions. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was first to report an agreement had been reached. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported the three-year, $45MM guarantee with a fourth-year club option that could tack on another $15MM.

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Cincinnati Reds Newsstand Transactions Jeimer Candelario

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Reds, Jeimer Candelario Have Had Serious Discussions

By Steve Adams | December 6, 2023 at 10:11pm CDT

The Reds are in “ongoing discussions” with free agent infielder Jeimer Candelario, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com, adding that Cincinnati has emerged as the front-runner to sign the switch-hitter. Univison’s Mike Rodriguez first reported that the two parties were in serious talks and that the Reds were a finalist to sign Candelario, who is represented by Premier Talent Sports & Entertainment. Prior reporting has pegged the Nationals, Blue Jays, Angels and D-backs as teams with interest in Candelario (although Arizona has since acquired Eugenio Suarez, likely removing them from the mix).

While the Reds are an unexpected fit for Candelario at first glance, given the club’s glut of young infield talent, they were first linked to him several weeks ago. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported this morning that the Reds met with Candelario’s reps twice during this week’s Winter Meetings and could look to add Candelario to the roster, thus pushing utilityman Spencer Steer to the outfield and possibly opening the door for the Reds to deal an infielder for rotation help.

Candelario, 30, is coming off one of the finest seasons of his career, having turned in a combined .251/.336/.471 batting line with 22 home runs (a career-high), 39 doubles, three triples and an 8-for-9 showing in stolen base attempts. That production came in a season split between the Nationals, who signed him to a one-year $5MM deal after the Tigers non-tendered him last winter, and the Cubs, who originally signed Candelario, traded him to Detroit in 2017, and reacquired him this past July.

Prior to his big league debut, Candelario was a touted prospect who ranked near the top of the farm systems in both Chicago and Detroit. He enjoyed an impressive rookie showing in 2017 (.283/.359/.425 in 38 games) but struggled to replicate that production in 2018 and saw his offense crater in 2019. Candelario bounced back with the Tigers both in 2020 and 2021, but Detroit cut him loose after a down year in 2022, wherein he posted a .217/.272/.361 slash in 467 plate appearances.

Though Candelario’s time with the Tigers came to an unceremonious end, he rebounded nicely between Washington and Chicago this past season and positioned himself nicely for a multi-year deal in free agency this winter. Between the 2020 season, when he hit .297/.369/.503 in the shortened 60-game campaign, and his strong 2021 and 2023 showings, Candelario has now played at a roughly three- to four-WAR pace in three of his past four seasons.

If the Reds ultimately convince Candelario to put pen to paper, it’ll create more questions than answers in Cincinnati. It’s clear the Reds are strong believers in Candelario’s upside, but Cincinnati also arguably has more infield talent than any team in MLB. Prospects Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all made their MLB debuts this past season, with McLain emerging as a viable Rookie of the Year candidate and the others performing quite well in smaller samples. Meanwhile, former top prospect Spencer Steer, who debuted late in the 2022 season, was pushed to an infield/outfield role and delivered a terrific first full MLB season, hitting .271/.356/.464 with 23 big flies and 15 steals. That doesn’t even include 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, who’s established himself as a leader in the Reds’ clubhouse even as his bat has taken a step back after a standout rookie showing.

Adding Candelario to that mix, presumably at third base, could come at the expense of playing time for Marte — the presumptive starter at third base — would create a veritable embarrassment of riches. Of course, that surplus would exist at a time when the free-agent market for bats — infielders, in particular — is historically thin. The Reds unexpectedly jumping into the market for one of the top free-agent infielders would simultaneously lessen the supply for other clubs in free agency and strengthen their negotiation stance in trade talks for pitching help.

To this point, it’s not clear which, if any, of the Reds’ infielders have drawn the most interest on the market. India was reported to be a trade candidate early in the offseason (and was also asked about frequently leading into the trade deadline), but Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has since suggested he expects India to be on the Reds’ roster in 2024. De La Cruz was so touted prior to his debut that it’s difficult to see Cincinnati seriously considering a trade. Similarly, McLain’s electric .290/.357/.507 debut would appear especially painful for the Reds to surrender in a trade.

There’s no easy answer for Cincinnati when it comes to dealing from that infield cache, but if the Reds ultimately sign Candelario, the pressure of such a decision could be lessened. As far as potential rotation targets for Krall & Co., options abound. The Reds already signed Nick Martinez — giving them a veteran complement to a young staff of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson and Graham Ashcraft — but they’ve also been linked to names like Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow in trade rumblings. There are various paths the Reds can take, and if they can manage to add Candelario and subsequently deal another infielder to acquire a rotation arm at a lower rate, it’ll be a nice — albeit unexpected — sleight of hand for a Cincinnati front office that typically operates on a tight budget.

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Cincinnati Reds Jeimer Candelario Spencer Steer

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Latest On Dylan Cease

By Steve Adams | December 6, 2023 at 6:10pm CDT

6:10PM: Per a report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post, rival clubs have indicated that the White Sox are “pulling back” in negotiations regarding Cease. Heyman goes on to suggest that there’s a good chance Cease is still dealt at some point this offseason, and that Chicago is likely waiting to see which Yamamoto suitors miss out on the NPB ace before reengaging in discussions on their prized right-hander.

1:23PM: White Sox righty Dylan Cease has been one of the most oft-discussed names at this week’s Winter Meetings, but Chicago’s asking price on the right-hander remains quite high and — at least to this point — prohibitive. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the Sox asked the Reds for pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty in addition to two position-player prospects, for instance. Lowder was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft and currently ranks as baseball’s No. 45 prospect at Baseball America. Petty is the former first-rounder the Reds acquired from the Twins in their 2022 Sonny Gray trade.

Given the lofty ask, it’s not especially surprising that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic casts doubt on whether Cincinnati would actually meet Chicago’s demand in the end. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that the Reds have also inquired on Guardians righty Shane Bieber and Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, but they’re somewhat wary of the recent health issues for both. That’s not an issue with the durable Cease, who’s started more games than any pitcher in baseball over the past four seasons.

The Reds, of course, are far from the only team interested in acquiring Cease, who’s drawn interest from the Braves, Orioles and Cardinals (even after their trio of free agent signings), among others. The Dodgers were also linked to Cease last month, and Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports reports that even as L.A. has aggressively courted Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they’ve also been actively involved in Cease talks throughout the Winter Meetings.

Dorsey adds that the Sox have been eyeing pitching in return packages for Cease, but the Dodgers aren’t willing to include young right-hander Bobby Miller in a potential package for Cease. Los Angeles has plenty of other arms to dangle, but Miller posted a 3.76 ERA with impressive strikeout and walk rates in 124 1/3 innings for the Dodgers as a rookie this past season. Miller entered the 2023 season as one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, and between that prospect billing and his strong debut effort, it’s wholly unsurprising that the Dodgers aren’t inclined to move him in a deal for Cease (or, likely, for just about any potential trade target).

Both the Reds and Dodgers stand as natural trade partners for Cease. Cincinnati has plenty of young talent (e.g. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft) but is lacking in more established big leaguers beyond the recently signed Nick Martinez. The Dodgers, meanwhile, will have Walker Buehler on an innings limit in his first full season back from his second career Tommy John surgery. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and will miss at least half the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Dustin May (flexor surgery, Tommy John revision) and Tony Gonsolin (Tommy John surgery) are also expected to miss some or all of the ’24 campaign.

Cease, 27, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.8MM in 2024 and is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season. He finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander after notching 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball with a 30.4% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate. The 2023 season saw Cease’s ERA more than double to 4.58, but his strikeout rate (27.4%) remained strong and his 10.1% walk rate was right in line with the prior season. He lost about a mile per hour off his fastball and allowed more hard contact in previous seasons, with his home run rate and average on balls in play both increasing substantially.

Down year notwithstanding, Cease is among the most talented pitchers on the trade market and rival teams are surely intrigued by the idea of a change of scenery that gets him out of the White Sox’ homer-friendly stadium and away from their porous defense. As far as high-end arms on the trade market, he’s also one of very few available with multiple seasons of club control. Each of Bieber, Glasnow and perhaps Corbin Burnes is available for the right offer, but all three members of that trio will reach free agency following the 2024 campaign.

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Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Los Angeles Dodgers Bobby Miller Chase Petty Dylan Cease Rhett Lowder Shane Bieber Tyler Glasnow

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Blue Jays, Reds, Dodgers Among Teams Showing Interest In Michael A. Taylor

By Steve Adams | December 6, 2023 at 5:38pm CDT

5:38 pm: The Dodgers have also expressed interest in Taylor, writes Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. Los Angeles is looking for a right-handed bat who can see some acton in the outfield, where the lefty-hitting Jason Heyward currently projects to man right field.

2:57pm: Outfielder Michael A. Taylor has been linked to both the Mets and the Red Sox this week, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi adds the Reds and Blue Jays as another pair of clubs who’ve reached out.

There’s some sense to either party pursuing the righty-swinging defensive standout. The Reds currently project to have left-handed hitter TJ Friedl and Will Benson in center field and right field, respectively. Friedl has excelled in left-on-left matchups in his brief big league tenure and in the upper minors, but Benson has not (.130/.200/.174 in a small sample of 50 plate appearances). As things stand, Stuart Fairchild is probably the favorite to platoon with Benson, but he’s only a .229/.343/.389 hitter in 170 career plate appearances versus lefties.

Taylor, meanwhile, slashed .252/.313/.602 and pounded nine home runs in his 112 plate appearances against southpaws this past season. He’s a career .256/.310/.436 hitter against left-handed pitching. Taylor is also a plus defender in the outfield, evidenced by strong marks in Defensive Runs Saved (5) and Outs Above Average (8) in just 129 games and 965 innings of center field work with Minnesota this past season. He’d not only give the Reds a potential platoon partner for Benson but also a viable late-game defensive upgrade or pinch-running weapon off the bench.

Over in Toronto, Taylor would only further add to a heavily right-handed roster. However, the Jays currently project to have Daulton Varsho and Nathan Lukes line up for regular time in the outfield. The Jays have been linked to a number of alternative options in the outfield, but even if they do make an outfield addition, bringing Taylor into the fold as a fourth outfielder makes some sense.

Taylor, who’ll turn 33 in March, had a characteristically strong defensive showing and belted a career-best 21 homers with the Twins in 2023, though his season wasn’t all roses. The longtime Nationals outfielder turned in a .278 OBP — a career-low in a 162-game season — and punched out at an alarming 33.5% rate (nearly eight percentage points higher than his mark over the past three seasons).

Taylor was perhaps selling out for some of the power he displayed, and the resulting bottom-of-the-scale OBP wasn’t pretty — but it was overall a fairly useful package. He went 13-for-14 in steals with plus defense and enough power to offset that OBP; both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference had him just shy of two wins above replacement in only about 60% of a season’s worth of plate appearances. Taylor has previously expressed interest in returning to the Twins, though it’s not clear whether they’ll make a strong effort to do so amid their RSN-driven reported payroll cuts.

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Reds Have Discussed Dylan Cease Trade With White Sox

By Nick Deeds | December 6, 2023 at 1:26am CDT

The Reds have engaged in conversations with the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease this offseason, per Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer. Cease, 28 this month, has been among the most discussed trade targets of the offseason to this point, with Chicago GM Chris Getz suggesting yesterday that there’s no club in the majors without at least some level of interest in the right-hander’s services. Wittenmyer goes on to caution that “nothing concrete” has developed from the discussions between the sides at this point.

The fit certainly makes sense for the Reds. The right-hander is coming off something of a down season in 2023 during which he posted a fairly pedestrian 4.58 ERA, though his 3.72 FIP, elevated .330 BABIP, and unusually low 69.4% strand rate all indicate there may have been some bad luck baked into those results. The idea that Cease may be closer to a front-of-the-rotation arm than his 2023 results indicate is backed up by his phenomenal 2022 campaign, during which he posted a sterling 2.20 ERA with a 3.10 FIP while striking out a whopping 30.4% of batters faced. Overall, Cease has pitched to a 3.54 ERA (121 ERA+) with a 3.40 FIP in 97 starts since the start of the 2021 season, striking out 29.8% of batters faced while walking 10.1% along the way.

That sort of playoff-caliber starter would provide a major boost to a Reds club that struggled to a rotation ERA of 5.43 this year, bottom three in the majors ahead of only Oakland and Colorado. The club’s situation isn’t quite as dire as that figure may make it seem; the club has an interesting group of young starters headlined by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott that also includes the likes of Graham Ashcraft, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, and Connor Phillips. The club also recently landed right-hander Nick Martinez on a two-year deal last week, fortifying their rotation depth. That being said, the group offers little certainty aside from Greene, and the addition of a frontline starter such as Cease would take pressure off the club’s younger arms as they look to establish themselves as big league starters.

Cease is far from the only arm the club has looked into who could fill this role. Cincinnati has reportedly discussed a deal for right-hander Shane Bieber with the Guardians while also showing interest in Rays righty Tyler Glasnow. While Cease figures to cost more in terms of prospect capital more than either of those two alternatives, he’s the only one of the trio controllable beyond the 2024 campaign. He also figures to be the cheapest to acquire from a financial perspective, as Cease is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to received just $8.8MM in his penultimate trip through arbitration. By contrast, Bieber is projected for a $12.2MM salary in 2024 while Glasnow’s salary for next season is locked in at $25MM.

The Reds are far from the only team engaged on Cease. While Getz’s remark that all 29 other clubs have interest in Cease’s services is surely at least somewhat hyperbolic, the right-hander has garnered plenty of interest this winter with the Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets, Orioles, and Red Sox among the clubs to show interest in the hurler so far this offseason. The Braves have also been connected to Cease frequently over the past several weeks, though more recent reports have downplayed the club’s interest. Even so, the market for Cease is clearly robust, and there have been indications that a deal for the righty may not come together until the top of the rotation market- which includes the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell– has been sorted out.

Cease is not the only player Wittenmyer suggests the Reds have interest in, as he also connects the club to infielder Jeimer Candelario. That the Reds have interest in Candelario’s services is nothing new, as the sides were linked last month at the outset of free agency. At the time, it seemed likely that the club’s interest in Candelario may have been predicated on a trade from the club’s glut of infielders that already includes Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jonathan India, and Spencer Steer. While such a deal has not yet materialized, it seems possible the club’s plans may not be so simple. While not discussing the switch-hitting Candelario specifically, Krall told reporters (as relayed by Wittenmyer) recently that the club “could add a switch-hitter that plays the infield” to their positional mix, with such a move allowing the Reds to “push Steer to the outfield more” often.

Candelario, 30, would add some balance to the club’s righty-dominated infield mix. Only De La Cruz (a fellow switch-hitter) ever bats from the left side among Cincinnati’s bevy of young infielders, though lefties TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley both help to balance the overall lineup somewhat as members of the club’s outfield mix. Candelario, who hit .251/.336/.471 overall last season with the Nationals and Cubs, could be in line of a three- or four-year deal this offseason according to Wittenmyer. That’s in line with MLBTR’s prediction of a four-year, $70MM deal that earned Candelario the #13 spot on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list.

The Angels, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays and Nationals are among the other clubs Candelario has been connected to this offseason, though it’s worth noting that Arizona subsequently landed Eugenio Suarez in a trade with the Mariners, likely taking them out of the sweepstakes for the third baseman. Despite that interest, Wittenmyer suggests that Candelario’s market, like that of many upper-level positional free agents, has been held up by the bidding on two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani has commanded the attention of big-market clubs such as the Jays, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants to this point in the offseason, and as such it’s hardly a surprise that the league’s other top free agent hitters prefer to wait out Ohtani’s free agency in case one of those teams looks to pivot after missing out on the superstar.

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Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Dylan Cease Jeimer Candelario

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Guardians Win Draft Lottery

By Anthony Franco | December 5, 2023 at 4:50pm CDT

The second ever MLB draft lottery was conducted at the Winter Meetings this afternoon. The Guardians were surprisingly awarded the first overall pick, followed by the Reds and Rockies. Cleveland entered the event with just a 2% chance of securing the highest selection.

Cincinnati also surprisingly drew near the top of the league. The Reds’ chances of landing the first pick were less than 1%. While they didn’t quite get to #1, they jump up to second despite having the 14th-worst record this year.

Here’s the first round order:

  1. Guardians
  2. Reds
  3. Rockies
  4. Athletics
  5. White Sox
  6. Royals
  7. Cardinals
  8. Angels
  9. Pirates
  10. Nationals
  11. Tigers
  12. Red Sox
  13. Giants
  14. Cubs
  15. Mariners
  16. Marlins
  17. Brewers
  18. Rays
  19. Mets
  20. Blue Jays
  21. Twins
  22. Orioles
  23. Dodgers
  24. Padres
  25. Yankees
  26. Braves
  27. Phillies
  28. Astros
  29. Diamondbacks
  30. Rangers

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all had identical chances of landing the top selection.

All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. That ruled out the Nationals this year, as they selected 2nd overall a season ago. (As an interesting aside, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America relays that a ball for Washington was actually chosen on the initial drawing for the first pick. As a result of the CBA provision capping them from picking higher than 10th, that result was voided. Cleveland’s winning ball was drawn on the second trial.)

This year, the A’s, Royals and Rockies had the best chance of securing the #1 overall selection. Each had an 18.3% probability for the pick. The White Sox (14.7%) and Cardinals (8.3%) had the fourth and fifth highest odds, respectively.

Also of note: none of the Mets, Yankees or Padres were drawn into the top six. Those teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier. As a result, their highest choices were dropped by 10 spots apiece. Had any of them received a lottery pick, their second-highest pick would have been moved back instead.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.

While the 2023 draft was extremely highly regarded at the top — particularly with the first five selections — the ’24 class isn’t as lauded. Much can change with the upcoming amateur baseball season in the spring, of course, but early indications are that having a top selection may not be quite as impactful as it would be in a typical season (and certainly not last summer). Baseball America recently updated its Top 100 draft prospects.

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Reds Sign Erik González To Minor League Deal

By Darragh McDonald | December 5, 2023 at 4:18pm CDT

4:18pm: It is indeed a minor league deal, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, with an invitation to camp.

1:00pm: Infielder Erik González has signed with the Reds, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. There are no details but it’s presumably a minor league deal.

González, now 32, signed a minors deal with the White Sox last offseason. He spent the 2023 season playing for Triple-A Charlotte, getting into 131 games for that club. He hit .272/.322/.360 in that time for a wRC+ of 72 while playing second base, third base and shortstop.

Though he didn’t get called up to the big leagues at any point in 2023, he has 352 games of major league experience. He served part-time roles in each season from 2016 to 2022, suiting up with Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Miami. He hasn’t hit much in that time, with a career batting line of just .242/.276/.340 but he’s been a solid glove-first utility option. He’s received strong marks for his defense at all four infield positions and has even played the outfield on occasion.

The Reds are already loaded with young infielders, as some combination of Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marté, Spencer Steer, Jonathan India and Christian Encarnacion-Strand will be looking for regular playing time while Jose Barrero will likely be in line for a bench role. But injuries are inevitable over a long season and you never know when depth will be needed. The Reds also added Mark Mathias on a minor league deal earlier today and Gonzalez joins him as a non-roster depth option.

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Cincinnati Reds Transactions Erik Gonzalez

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Red Sox “Stepping Up Efforts” In Pursuit Of Seth Lugo

By Anthony Franco | December 5, 2023 at 12:20pm CDT

Dec. 5: The Red Sox are “stepping up [their] efforts” to bring Lugo to Boston, reports Heyman, who notes that the Braves are among the four to five other clubs still in the mix for the righty. Cotillo tweets the Red Sox are “expected” to make a formal offer to Lugo soon, if they haven’t already.

Dec. 4: Seth Lugo is a popular target in the middle tiers of free agency. The Tigers (prior to signing Kenta Maeda) and Dodgers have been publicly tied to the right-hander, who has reportedly drawn interest from upwards of half the league.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds a few more clubs to the mix, reporting that the Braves are among the teams showing interest. Heyman adds the Reds, Red Sox and Diamondbacks have also been involved this offseason — although it’s not specified whether Cincinnati’s interest predated their two-year contract with Lugo’s former San Diego teammate Nick Martinez.

The newly revealed suitors on Lugo are all sensible. Each has found themselves in the market for starting pitching. The Braves made a run at Aaron Nola before he returned to the Phillies. They subsequently signed Reynaldo López, whom they’re considering stretching back to rotation work. Atlanta also acquired Marco Gonzales in last night’s trade with the Mariners but reportedly plan to flip the southpaw elsewhere.

Boston has been in the market for multiple starting pitchers. They’re involved on top-of-the-market options like Jordan Montgomery and Yoshinobu Yamamoto but are surely identifying targets at various tiers of free agency. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow reiterated this afternoon that the rotation was the Sox’s top priority (relayed by Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

The D-Backs have made no secret of their desire for a mid-rotation starter to step in behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly and alongside Brandon Pfaadt. Arizona general manager Mike Hazen suggested this evening that acquisition was likelier to come via free agency than trade, although he unsurprisingly indicated they’re exploring both avenues (link via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com).

Cincinnati added Martinez last week, bringing in the veteran righty to join an otherwise young starting staff. There’s still room for more innings considering the injury history and/or limited MLB track records of players like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson. The Reds have also left open the possibility of keeping Martinez in a swing/multi-inning relief role, although it’d be an odd decision to guarantee him $13MM annually over two seasons if they didn’t anticipate him earning a spot in the rotation.

Lugo, entering his age-34 campaign, is reportedly seeking a three-year deal. He has a strong case for one on the heels of a 3.57 ERA over 26 starts for the Padres.

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Reds, Mark Mathias Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | December 5, 2023 at 8:29am CDT

The Reds have agreed to a minor league deal with infielder/outfielder Mark Mathias, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. He’ll presumably head to big league camp this spring. Mathias is repped by Apex Baseball.

The 29-year-old Mathias split the 2023 season between the Mariners, Pirates and Giants organizations, reaching the big leagues with the latter two of that trio. In a small sample of 72 trips to the plate, Mathias batted .226/.333/.258. He’s a career .246/.317/.391 hitter with six home runs and seven stolen bases in a total of 199 big league plate appearances. Mathias has walked at a healthy 9.5% clip in that time against a higher-than-average 26.1% strikeout rate.

Mathias hasn’t had much big league experience, but he’s a lifetime .288/.383/.454 hitter in parts of three Triple-A seasons totaling 919 plate appearances. He’s logged more than 3000 career innings at second base and more than 1000 frames at third base, with additional cameos at shortstop, first base and the outfield corners.

Cincinnati is already loaded with infield options, with Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte, Jonathan India and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all in the mix. Jack of all trades Spencer Steer can play virtually any infield or corner outfield spot as well, though he may be ticketed for left field to begin the upcoming season. TJ Friedl and Will Benson are slated to handle center field and right field, respectively, and the Reds also have former top prospect Jose Barrero and outfielder/DH Jake Fraley in the mix for playing time.

Mathias doesn’t have a clear path to a prominent role with the team, but he provides some defensive versatility with a decent track record at the plate both in Triple-A and in the big leagues.

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Cincinnati Reds Transactions Mark Mathias

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