Rockies Rumors

Quick Hits: Cubs, Maldonado, Cedeno, M’s, Healy, Rox, Estevez

By Connor Byrne | March 10, 2019 at 4:25pm CDT

The Cubs had interest in catcher Martin Maldonado before he agreed to join the Royals on Saturday, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports (subscription required). The presence of established starting catcher Willson Contreras worked against the Cubs in this instance, though, as Mooney hears Maldonado wanted to go to a team capable of offering him a solid amount of playing time. After losing out on Maldonado, the Cubs are still interested in bolstering their depth at catcher behind Contreras and Victor Caratini, Mooney hears.

Maldonado only ended up in Kansas City because starting catcher Salvador Perez needed Tommy John surgery – a procedure veteran Matt Wieters expects to become more commonplace for backstops. Wieters, who underwent the procedure in 2014 (the first time a starting catcher required the surgery since 1997), told Joel Sherman of the New York Post this week, “I think it is because more and more you are on the clock,” referring to the fact that teams are now timing catchers when they throw. “I am not sure that is a great way to go,” the Cardinals’ Wieters opines. Along with Perez and Wieters, the Red Sox’s Christian Vazquez and the Mets’ Travis d’Arnaud are the most prominent catchers who have undergone TJ surgery in recent years, Sherman notes.
With Kyle Seager battling a wrist injury, Ryon Healy has emerged as the Mariners’ top fallback option at third base, Greg Johns of MLB.com writes. Healy totaled over 100 games’ worth of action at the hot corner with the Athletics from 2016-17, but he barely played there last year with the Mariners, instead spending almost all of his time at first. The addition of Edwin Encarnacion has pushed Healy out of a starting spot there, however, and so did his subpar production in 2018. In his first year with the Mariners, Healy slashed an unimpressive .238/.277/.412 (90 wRC+) in 524 plate appearances, continuing his drop-off from an encouraging 2016 rookie campaign with the A’s.
Contrary to popular belief, Rockies reliever Carlos Estevez is not out of minor league options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweets. Rather, the Rockies will be able to demote Estevez this season “based on complicated regulations regarding full seasons played and age at the time of signing,” Harding writes. That will afford the Rockies more flexibility in their bullpen, where it appeared they’d either have to keep Estevez or potentially lose him. The 26-year-old was a part of the group from 2016-17, but he struggled to a 5.36 ERA (though he did post a much better 4.08 FIP) with 9.27 K/9, 4.33 BB/9 and a 44.3 percent groundball rate across 87 1/3 innings. Thanks in part to oblique and elbow injuries, Estevez failed to appear in the majors last season.
Cubs reliever Xavier Cedeno is likely to miss the start of the season on account of a wrist injury, per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. It doesn’t seem overly serious, though, as Cedeno’s only expected to sit out the next seven to 10 days. Cedeno, whom the Cubs signed to a minor league contract in February, had been competing for a bullpen spot after several productive seasons divided among the Astros, Nationals, Rays, White Sox and Brewers. Over 175 1/3 innings, the 32-year-old southpaw has logged a 3.69 ERA/3.80 FIP with 8.91 K/9, 3.54 BB/9 and a 50.4 grounder percentage, and has held same-sided hitters to a weak .218/.285/.298 line.

Catching Notes: Perez, Royals, Maldonado, Murphy, Red Sox

By Steve Adams | March 8, 2019 at 9:04am CDT

The Royals have insurance on their five-year, $52MM contract with Salvador Perez, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (via Twitter). Specific terms of the policy aren’t clear, though the insurance policy is “believed” to kick in after 90 games. Kansas City will play its 90th game of the season on July 6 this year, after which point Perez will be owed approximately $4.57MM of his $10MM salary through season’s end. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll recoup that entire sum, as specific payments will be dependent on the terms of their policy. (The Mets’ insurance policy on David Wright, for instance, paid the team 75 percent of his salary based on days spent on the 60-day disabled list.) While the loss of Perez stings for the Royals on multiple levels, it seems they’ll at the very least be able to recover a few million dollars in salary, which could conceivably be used to pursue a replacement. Kansas City has been in talks with Martin Maldonado, who switched representation yesterday.

A couple more notes pertaining to the catching market…

The Astros, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter), made Maldonado a two-year offer at the beginning of the offseason. Whether the annual salary that accompanied that offer was deemed insufficient or whether then-agent Scott Boras sought a lengthier pact, turning down the offer does not appear to have been a prudent decision. Of course, such proclamations are easy to make with the benefit of hindsight, and it was surely a far more difficult decision at the time. Many clubs — the Astros, White Sox, Rockies, Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Braves and Dodgers among them — looked like viable on-paper fits for Maldonado and other catchers at the outset of free agency, so exploring the market for his services was only natural. Houston ultimately moved on, adding Robinson Chirinos on a one-year deal, while Maldonado remains unsigned having recently hired a new agent.
Out-of-options Rockies catcher Tom Murphy is making a strong bid for a roster spot with his spring performance, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Murphy is 5-for-16 with a pair of homers and two walks (against six strikeouts), but beyond the raw, small sample of stats he’s posted to date, he’s impressed manager Bud Black with an improved all-around game. “I think ‘Murph’ does a nice job of game-calling,” said Black. “…the whole aspect of his game is much improved over what we saw two years ago and that’s a tribute to ‘Murph.’” Murphy, 28 next month, once sat on the back end of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list (2015-16 offseason) but has yet to establish himself. He’s now fighting for a roster spot against veteran Chris Iannetta and a strong defender but light hitter, Tony Wolters.
In his latest Opening Day roster projection for the Red Sox, Ian Browne of MLB.com predicts that Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart will make the roster. That’d leave Sandy Leon as the odd man out, forcing either a trade or a DFA of the defensive-minded veteran. Leon, Browne notes, is arguably the best defender of the bunch and could be a logical fit for the Royals. Swihart, meanwhile, has greater trade value given his former prospect status, upside with the bat and remaining team control. Leon avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2.475MM (a partially guaranteed sum that’d become fully guaranteed on Opening Day). He hit just .177/.232/.279 in 288 plate appearances last year but was vastly better in 2016-17. Swihart, meanwhile, is controlled through 2022 and is earning $910K as a first-time arbitration-eligible Super Two player. His .229/.285/.328 line in 207 PAs last year wasn’t much to look at, either, though his playing time was sparse and he’s long been touted for his offensive potential.

Martin Maldonado Hires MVP Sports Group

By Steve Adams | March 7, 2019 at 1:07pm CDT

Veteran catcher Martin Maldonado, who remains unsigned despite the fact that Opening Day is just three weeks away, has made a change in representation and hired Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group as his new agent, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). Maldonado had previously been with the Boras Corporation after hiring them at the end of August.

That Maldonado remains unsigned has seemed an oddity in recent weeks; while he’s unequivocally a below-average hitter, the 32-year-old is also among the game’s premier defenders at his position. As I noted about three weeks ago when Maldonado was linked to the Mariners, the 2016 Gold Glover ranks third among all active catchers in Defensive Runs Saved dating back to the 2012 season, trailing only Buster Posey and Yadier Molina — each of whom has caught at least 2000 more innings than Maldonado in that span. He’s also a perennially strong pitch framer with a career 38 percent caught-stealing rate, including a ridiculous 49 percent mark in 2018 (17-for-35).

It’s true that Maldonado’s lifetime .220/.289/.350 batting line is unsightly, and his career 73 OPS+ lines up identically with the 73 OPS+ he’s posted over the past two seasons. Teams know that while Maldonado has a bit of pop, he’s generally going to be a weak spot in the lineup. Still, given his exceptional defensive prowess, that seems a worthwhile trade-off — at the very least in a backup role.

Maldonado’s recent asking price remains unclear, though the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish reported in late February that the holdup between Maldonado and the Mariners was merely over a guaranteed MLB deal. If Maldonado has indeed struggled to so much as find a guaranteed contract this winter, that’d be a fairly stunning revelation. It’s possible, of course, that the initial ask was perceived to be steep, and many clubs throughout the league have now either addressed their catching situation in alternative fashion or have limited funds. That said, bringing Maldonado aboard as a backup at what figures to be a moderate price would seem an easy upgrade for many clubs.

Beyond the Mariners, Maldonado has been tied to the Royals since it became clear that Salvador Perez would require Tommy John surgery. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman linked Maldonado to the Rockies earlier this morning, as well.

Maldonado’s switch in representation will be reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database. If you see any errors or omissions within that database, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Rockies Notes: Arenado, Catchers, Welker, Tinoco

By Steve Adams | March 6, 2019 at 11:31pm CDT

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic pulls back the curtain on the Rockies’ extension with Nolan Arenado, providing detail on the timing, structure and actual content of some of the meetings held between Arenado’s camp and organizational decision-makers (subscription required). While the two sides had hoped to avoid arbitration prior to exchanging figures on filing day, that didn’t come to pass, and at one point the sides even looked to be headed toward a hearing. Instead, the Rox agreed to a $26MM salary for the 2019 campaign (thus avoiding arbitration) under the pretense that Arenado’s agent, Joel Wolfe, would follow that up with a counter-offer to the team’s initial extension proposal.

Ultimately, it took a face-to-face meeting involving Arenado, Wolfe, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich and Rockies owner Dick Monfort for significant progress to be made on the extension — as well as a final call from Monfort to Wolfe urging that they put the finishing touches on a deal. Rosenthal’s column is rife with quotes from Wolfe, Bridich and Arenado himself — each detailing elements of negotiations and the thought processes of all parties involved at various points of talks. Rockies fans in particular will find it of great interest, of course, though a broader audience will surely appreciate the in-depth look of the inner-workings of one of the largest contracts in MLB history.

NL Notes: Tatis, Senzel, Rox, Reynolds, Braves, Folty

By Connor Byrne | March 3, 2019 at 3:19pm CDT

As a consensus top three farmhand in baseball, shortstop prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. may be able to help the Padres from the outset of the season, but he’s no lock to make the team. After all, by keeping the 20-year-old in the minors until at least mid-April, the Padres would gain an extra year of control over him. Nevertheless, the Padres’ highest-profile player, Manny Machado, is hopeful Tatis will join him on Opening Day to comprise the left side of their infield, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (subscription required). “If he’s in there, we’re going to be a dangerous team, and I think we’re all rooting for him to break camp with us,” said Machado, an experienced shortstop who’s set to hold down third base for the Padres after signing a 10-year, $300MM contract with them last month. Meanwhile, manager Andy Green isn’t ruling out Tatis for the Padres’ season-opening roster, but he cautioned: “In (Tatis’) case, he’s a couple months above Double-A ball. He’s had two incredibly slow Aprils that unbelievable seasons followed. “So, there’s some context there that we’re going to factor into the equation that other people probably aren’t.”

As is the case with Tatis, Reds prospect Nick Senzel could be an early season victim of service time manipulation. Senzel’s also trying to learn a new position, center field, as he entered the spring with no game experience there. Already, though, “it’s become clear” Senzel has the ability to handle the position, manager David Bell said Sunday (via John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Regardless of whether Senzel’s in center for the Reds from the get-go, the 24-year-old seems like a good bet to see the lion’s share of time at the position for the Reds this year. Senzel’s customary spots – second and third – are spoken for, whereas there’s no established center fielder blocking him in Cincinnati.
Although he only landed a minor league contract in free agency, first baseman Mark Reynolds is a near certainty to make the Rockies’ Opening Day roster, per Nick Groke of The Athletic (subscription required). If so, he’ll be the primary backup to first baseman Daniel Murphy, another offseason pickup for the club. The 35-year-old Reynolds was teammates with Murphy last season in Washington, where the former turned in a solid .248/.328/.476 line in 235 plate appearances after signing a minors pact with the Nationals in April.
Braves right-hander Mike Foltynewicz has been down with elbow soreness, but it’s “expected” he’ll resume throwing Monday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. Foltynewicz isn’t on track to serve as the Braves’ Opening Day starter, but it appears he’ll be able to make his regular-season debut sometime during the first week of the campaign. The 27-year-old will attempt to build on a breakout 2018 showing in which he pitched to a 2.85 ERA/3.37 FIP with 9.93 K/9, 3.34 BB/9 and a 43.1 percent groundball rate over 183 innings.

West Notes: Castillo, Arenado, Rockies, A’s, Ohtani

By Mark Polishuk | March 1, 2019 at 7:57pm CDT

Padres left-hander Jose Castillo will be sidelined for an estimated six-to-eight weeks to recover from a flexor strain in his throwing arm, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. Castillo began feeling forearm tightness last week, which caused San Diego to shut down his bullpens and then ultimately place him on the 60-day injured list today. Needless to say, any type of forearm injury is cause for concern, though the team is still “confident” that Tommy John surgery won’t be required. The 23-year-old Castillo made his MLB debut last season and immediately delivered results, posting a 3.29 ERA, 4.33 K/BB rate, and a whopping 12.2 K/9 over 38 1/3 innings out of San Diego’s bullpen. With Castillo on the IL, the Padres’ top left-handed options consist of Matt Strahm and the recently-signed Aaron Loup, with former big leaguers Eric Stout, Kyle McGrath, and Brad Wieck also available in the upper minors.

Some more from both the NL and AL West divisions….

The specter of what Manny Machado or Bryce Harper could land in free agency theoretically loomed over the extension talks between Nolan Arenado and the Rockies, though the Machado/Harper situations “had a lot less to do with it than you might think,” Rockies GM Jeff Bridich said in an appearance on Inside Pitch show on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). While both the team and Arenado’s camp were obviously cognizant of the larger market forces at play, Bridich said “There were never any sort of deadlines or caveats put in going ’Hey, we need to know this first before…’ We just focused on our business at hand, and I think that’s why we ended up getting what hopefully ends up to be a great deal for everybody involved.”
Now that Arenado has been locked up to the biggest contract in franchise history, the Rockies don’t have any more big extension candidates on their radar for at least a couple of years, Kyle Newman and Jeff Bailey of the Denver Post write. Colorado’s top young stars are still controlled through arbitration or have yet to even reach their arb years — Trevor Story and Jon Gray are controlled through the 2021 season, while Kyle Freeland and German Marquez aren’t eligible for free agency until after the 2022 campaign. This doesn’t mean the Rockies couldn’t explore a long-term deal in advance, though it’s worth noting that Arenado and Charlie Blackmon both only signed their extensions when they were a season removed from the open market. Looking at Colorado’s long-term payroll, Arenado and Blackmon are the only players guaranteed salary beyond 2021, several of the team’s other big contracts (Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Daniel Murphy, and likely Ian Desmond) come off the books after 2020 or 2021.
The early start to the regular season for the Athletics and Mariners (who play a two-game series in Tokyo on March 20-21) has also pushed up some roster deadlines. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the A’s will have to decide by March 14 whether or not minor league signees Jerry Blevins and Nick Hundley will make the MLB roster. Otherwise, Blevins and Hundley each can opt out of their minors contracts. It could be a moot point, however, as “Blevins and Hundley both appear to be near-locks to make the team,” Slusser writes. Hundley’s inclusion could leave Josh Phegley as the odd man out of the catching mix, and the out-of-options backstop is a good candidate to be claimed off waivers, multiple scouts tell Slusser. Oakland’s early start doesn’t extend to out-of-options players, however, as the club has until March 28 (when their regular season resumes) to decide on Phegley, Frankie Montas, Aaron Brooks, and other players who can no longer be freely optioned to the minors.
Shohei Ohtani has moved from hitting off a tee to hitting soft toss, as the Angels slugger continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery. The Halos are targeting a May return for Ohtani, though manager Brad Ausmus told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other media that the unique nature of Ohtani’s two-way status makes him “patient zero,” and thus “he doesn’t really have a set schedule. He is making the schedule for future Shohei Ohtanis.” Ohtani obviously won’t pitch this season, and he’ll be limited to DH-only duty once he does return to the team’s lineup.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Nolan Arenado Extension

By Jeff Todd | February 26, 2019 at 8:54pm CDT

Rockies star Nolan Arenado has been a consistent star on both sides of the ball for some time now. He’ll turn 28 early in the 2019 season, meaning that his monster new contract runs through his age-35 season.

It’s easy to like the Rockies’ decision at first glance. Arenado joins Charlie Blackmon as a homegrown star who’ll stick around through his prime. The organization clearly intends to keep a contention window propped open for some time, even if that means committing to some rather lofty spending levels. With other talent on hand, and more intriguing players filtering up through the system, a sustained run of competitiveness is perhaps within reach.

The risks, though, lurk just below the surface. Blackmon took a step back in 2019 and the team has some other hefty commitments to underperforming players. The club will open the 2019 season with over $140MM on the books for the first time and already has north of $110MM obligated for 2020, along with $70MM or so for the following season. Arbitration obligations will rise as well.

Arenado’s deal sets an AAV record for position players and is unquestionably a major commitment. It gives him full no-trade protection, so the Rockies may find it challenging to move the deal if that proves necessary. The team granted Arenado the ability to bail out and test the open market after three seasons, too, meaning he holds the upside with ample downside protection as well. While Arenado would have had a chance to beat seven years and $234MM in free agency next winter, it’s tough to say that represents any kind of discount, particularly when locked in a year in advance.

Paying market value doesn’t mean the Rox were misguided, of course. By doing so now, they kept other clubs from out-bidding or otherwise wooing their best and most popular player. There was obviously a significant risk of being forced to choose between losing Arenado or paying a fair bit more to retain him, particularly with numerous big-market clubs reputedly eyeing him as a target.

All things considered, how do you grade the deal from the Rockies’ perspective? (Link for app users.)

Grade the Rockies' extension of Nolan Arenado

A 54.83% (11,718 votes)

B 31.95% (6,828 votes)

C 8.91% (1,905 votes)

D 2.26% (482 votes)

F 2.05% (439 votes)

Total Votes: 21,372

Rockies, Nolan Arenado Agree To Extension

By Steve Adams | February 26, 2019 at 7:08pm CDT

Nolan Arenado’s days as the face of the Rockies franchise will continue beyond the 2019 season. Arenado, who had been slated to reach free agency next winter, has instead inked an eight-year contract extension that adds seven years and $234MM in new commitments. The Wasserman client’s new contract reportedly contains an opt-out clause after the third season in 2021, which would allow him to become a free agent in advance of his age-31 campaign, as well as full no-trade protection.

The newly agreed upon contract will leave in place the one-year, $26MM contract to which Arenado had already agreed for 2019. He takes down $35MM annually over the next five seasons before receiving $32MM and $27MM salaries in the final two years.

Arenado is promised $260MM in total money over an eight-year term. Whether calculated cumulatively ($32.5MM annually) or in reference only to the seven new seasons ($33.4MM), the new contract establishes a new record annual salary for position players, topping Miguel Cabrera’s prior mark of $31MM. In terms of overall average annual salary (AAV), Arenado’s contract trails only Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM mark for the largest in MLB history. It’s the fourth-largest deal ever in terms of total guarantee, trailing only Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325MM), Manny Machado (10 years, $300MM) and Alex Rodriguez (10 years, $275MM).

Arenado, 28 in April, has won a Gold Glove in all six of his Major League seasons to date, pairing that hardware with Silver Sluggers in each of the past four seasons. He’s made four consecutive All-Star teams and finished in the top five of National League voting in three straight seasons. Over the past four years, Arenado has led the National League in home runs on three occasions and posted a combined .297/.358/.573 batting line with 158 homers, 159 doubles and 19 triples.

Detractors point to Arenado’s home/road splits in suggesting that his value is inflated by Coors Field, and while it’s surely true that he benefits from that hitter-friendly setting, he’s also slashed a robust .267/.329/.502 on the road over the past four years (with many of those games coming in pitchers’ parks in San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles). And park-neutral metrics like OPS+ (129) and wRC+ (127) feel that even after adjusting for his home park advantages, Arenado’s bat has been 27 to 29 percent better than that of a league-average hitter since 2015. By measure of wRC+, he’s among the game’s 35 best hitters in that four-year span and, when combined with his premier defense at the hot corner, he ranks inside the top 10 in overall wins above replacement among position players, per Fangraphs.

In all, there’s little denying Arenado’s place among the game’s legitimate superstars, and he carries perhaps more value to the Rockies than he would with any other organization given his existing connection with the fan base and within the Denver community. He’s nearly two years older than the current offseason’s two star free-agent bats, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, so it’s not a surprise to see Arenado heading for a slightly shorter-term deal than either of his highly touted peers. But in terms of annual rate, the new contract already tops Machado’s annual salary and could potentially be higher than the AAV to which Harper will eventually agree.

Arenado is the second would-be 2019-20 free agent to take an extension rather than test an open market that has become increasingly slow for top-end talent. (Aaron Hicks signed a seven-year deal with the Yankees yesterday.) Had he hit the open market, it stands to reason that deep-pocketed teams like the Dodgers and particularly the Yankees would’ve made a push to land his services, but the presumptive top free agent on next year’s market will instead take his record-setting payday a year early in order to remain with the only organization he’s ever known.

For the Rockies, the new contract means that Arenado will play out at least the next three seasons alongside Trevor Story, cementing one of the game’s most productive left-side infield tandems for the foreseeable future. That duo’s presence likely means that uber-prospect Brendan Rodgers is ticketed for second base when he eventually does force his way up to the big league level. Should his future outlook stall for any reason, the Rox have plenty of other infield talent on the rise, most notably including Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson. Beyond that grouping, veteran Daniel Murphy signed a two-year contract to play first base this winter and will be entrenched in the heart of what should be a formidable batting order.

From a payroll vantage point, the Arenado contract will further push the Rox into franchise-record territory. The $137MM mark at which they opened the 2018 season was already an all-time high for the team, but Arenado’s new deal — depending on how the dollars are distributed — will likely bring Colorado’s Opening Day payroll beyond $155MM (as outlined by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). In terms of luxury taxation, the Rockies are still nearly $40MM shy of having anything to worry about in 2019, and their luxury tax ledger plummets to just north of $129MM next winter, which would place them nearly $80MM shy of incurring any penalties.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported that the Rockies had made a record-AAV offer to Arenado and added he annual breakdown on Twitter. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the two sides were closing in on an eight-year deal worth more than $255MM with an opt-out (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the exact salary terms, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the agreement to be in place (Twitter links).

Rockies Extend Bud Black

By Steve Adams | February 25, 2019 at 10:45am CDT

10:45am: The Rockies have announced the extension.

10:32am: The Rockies and manager Bud Black have agreed to a three-year contract extension that runs through the 2022 season, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. Black’s original three-year pact with Colorado ran spanned the 2017-19 seasons and included a 2020 club option.

Black, 61, enjoyed a 15-year playing career as a pitcher (primarily for the Royals, Giants and Indians) and spent nearly nine years as the manager of his now-division-rival Padres from 2007-15. After being dismissed in San Diego, Black was in a front-runner for the Nationals’ managerial post before the team’s offers to him were reported to be exceptionally low for a veteran manager. He instead spent a year as a senior advisor in the Angels’ front office before being hired by the Rockies in the 2016-17 offseason.

Black’s first two years with the Rockies have been a success, as he’s overseen a 178-147 record and made a pair of postseason appearances via Wild Card berths. While the Rockies were ousted by the Diamondbacks in the 2017 National League Wild Card Game, they topped the Cubs in the 2018 Wild Card and moved onto the National League Division Series. Their World Series aspirations were cut short in a decisive sweep at the hands of the Brewers, however. He’s finished third in National League Manager of the Year voting in each of his two seasons in Colorado.

Rockies pitchers have taken a step forward under Black, and while he surely isn’t the sole reason for that, Black’s 15-year pitching career and seven-year run as a highly respected pitching coach with the Angels surely is of benefit to a young Rockies pitching staff. With this new deal in place, that young pitching staff will have some continuity as it continues to make strides in pitching at the game’s most hitter-friendly venue. Continued success for Black, too, could eventually push his career managerial record north of .500; it currently sits at 649-713 after managing some underwhelming Padres rosters during some of the leanest seasons in that franchise’s history.

Transaction Retrospection: The Charlie Blackmon Extension

By Mark Polishuk | February 24, 2019 at 10:56am CDT

Throughout the Rockies’ franchise history, the team hasn’t been shy about extending key members of the roster. Colorado’s biggest extension yet could be in the offing, as the Rockies continue to talk with All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado about a long-term deal that would keep Arenado away from free agency next winter.

If such a contract is worked out, it would easily be the most expensive deal in Rockies’ history, not to mention one of the pricier deals in Major League history. It would also be the second major extension completed by Jeff Bridich in his time as Colorado’s general manager, coming on the heels of the club’s five-year extension with Charlie Blackmon last spring. That deal is worth revisiting now, given what we’ve seen about the free agent outfield market (or, really, just the free agent market in general) after a second consecutive slow offseason of signing activity.

Blackmon was 31 at the time of the extension (he turned 32 last July 1), and, like Arenado is now, also a year away from reaching free agency. Blackmon had posted solid numbers as a part-time player and then as a regular with Colorado in 2013-15, though he stood a big step forward to hit .327/.390/.578 with 66 homers over 1366 plate appearances in 2016-17. That performance saw Blackmon earn a Silver Slugger Award in both seasons, as well as a fifth-place finish in NL MVP voting in 2017.

With the Rockies coming off a postseason appearance in 2017, the team moved to lock up a top performer, agreeing to an extension that guarantees Blackmon at least $94MM from 2019-23. Blackmon earns $21MM in each of the next three seasons, and then has a player option for another $21MM season in 2022. He then has another player option year for 2023 worth $10MM in guaranteed money, though another $8MM is available via escalators based plate-appearance thresholds that seem rather readily achievable, or on MVP finishes. (The deal also technically adjusted Blackmon’s previously agreed-upon $14MM arbitration salary for 2018, turning $2MM of that figure into a signing bonus.) All told, the extension could max out at $102MM in new money for Blackmon once all is said and done.

Even sticking to the guaranteed $94MM figure, however, Blackmon’s contract already looks like an outlier in the wake of how baseball’s free agent marketplace has evolved over the last two winters. Manny Machado and Patrick Corbin are the only 2018-19 free agents who earned more than $94MM in guaranteed money this winter. Bryce Harper will be the third name on this list once he eventually signs, and it’s doubtful that Dallas Keuchel will meet even MLBTR’s four-year/$82MM projected contract, let alone a $94MM deal.

Blackmon’s production also took a bit of a step back in 2018, as he hit .291/.358/.502 with 29 homers over 696 plate appearances. Still strong numbers, to be sure, though more in the vein of a solidly above-average hitter (116 wRC+, 115 OPS+) than his more elite production (137 wRC+, 136 OPS+) in 2016-17. On the defensive side, Blackmon had been a below-average but playable center fielder throughout his career, though his glovework fell off (-28 Defensive Runs Saved, -12.6 UZR.150) to such an extent in 2018 that the Rockies will now deploy him as a right fielder this season.

Had Blackmon been a free agent this winter, his most natural comp was another center fielder, A.J. Pollock. The newly-signed member of the Dodgers outfield lacks Blackmon’s durability and longer track record of production, but Pollock is also 17 months younger, a more stable defender, and more of a sure thing to produce in a new ballpark (Blackmon has a career .970 OPS at Coors Field, and only a .745 OPS on the road). Pollock landed a five-year deal from the Dodgers worth $60MM in guaranteed money, so even if some teams felt that Blackmon was the better free agent bet, the gap between the two players surely wouldn’t have been $34MM.

With all this in mind, it’s fair to say that Blackmon and his representatives at ACES did a good job in landing that extension last spring. As a soon-to-be 33-year-old headed for corner outfield duty, as hard to imagine Blackmon would’ve found five years and $94MM in free agency if he had tested the market this winter.

A win for Blackmon, however, doesn’t at all mean that the deal was a “loss” for the Rockies. As noted, Blackmon was still a very productive hitter in 2019 — drastic home/road splits aren’t as big an issue when you’re the team that plays at Coors Field, naturally. Blackmon also wouldn’t be the first player to improve at the plate after shifting to a less-demanding defensive position, so getting out of center field could help Blackmon’s bat as well as simply drastically elevating his defensive value.

Could Colorado have re-signed Blackmon to a lesser deal as a free agent had they not extended him a year early? Potentially, though such a “what-if” scenario is easy to create with 20/20 hindsight (plus, you never know if another team might’ve been particularly keen on signing Blackmon). As it worked out, the Rockies were able to retain a player they liked both on the field and in the clubhouse, even if it may have been a bit of an overpay.

Let’s also not overlook the big-picture ripple effect of the Blackmon extension as it relates to Arenado. The third baseman now has solid proof that a Bridich-led front office is willing to pay to keep a homegrown star in the fold, and retain members of what has been a winning core group that has reached consecutive postseasons. Money-wise, Blackmon’s long-term contract presents no real obstacle to the Rockies being able to afford Arenado, given that negotiations are already taking place and the organization is cognizant of the $200MM+ it will surely take to keep Arenado in the fold. From a return-on-investment standpoint, Blackmon’s contract also looks like much less of a problem for the Rockies’ payroll than the lack of production they’ve received from recent free agent signings like Ian Desmond, Jake McGee, or Bryan Shaw.

It will also be interesting to see how Blackmon’s extension stands in the wider scope of future extensions for star players a season away from free agency. We’ve already seen some notable extensions this spring, though those deals went to players (Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, Jorge Polanco, etc.) who were still arbitration-controlled for several seasons, rather than pending members of the 2019-20 free agent class. For some of those scheduled free agents who are already in their 30’s, the thought of an extended stint in free agency and/or a lesser contract than expected have surely crossed these players’ minds in the wake of the last two offseasons.

Blackmon’s contract may represent a best-case scenario for such players if they do pursue extensions, as Blackmon and his camp were able to score at what may be the peak of the outfielder’s value and earning potential. Of course, it takes two to tango, and it remains to be seen if teams besides the Rockies are willing to pay a premium in an extension for a player who isn’t either a true elite veteran (like a Nolan Arenado) or a younger, arbitration-controlled star who could prove to be a bargain if locked up early. As a team wanting to both win now and to send an early signal to Arenado that they wanted to win the future, however, the Rockies felt Blackmon’s extension was clearly worth the plunge.

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