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West Rumors: D-backs, Ray, Rox, M’s, Santana, Rangers, Leclerc

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Although the Diamondbacks traded first baseman Paul Goldschmidt last week, his departure isn’t necessarily a sign that a full-scale teardown is coming, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic hears. While Piecoro doesn’t rule out other deals involving notable D-backs veterans (e.g., Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray), he writes that they “seem comfortable standing pat” and addressing holes on their roster. If Arizona does part with Ray, it would take a lot to acquire him, as a source tells Piecoro the team has set a “really high bar” on a return for the left-handed strikeout artist. Ray, 27, is controllable for the next two seasons, including for a projected $6.1MM in 2019.

  • The Rockies “figure to be in the mix” if the Mariners trade first baseman Carlos Santana, Thomas Harding of MLB.com writes. Santana just joined the Mariners this month in a blockbuster trade with the Philllies, but the rebuilding, payroll-cutting M’s may flip the 32-year-old in the coming weeks. While Santana wasn’t great in 2018, he brings a solid track record to the table and would likely serve as a first base upgrade in Colorado, which received National League-worst production at the position last season. Of course, Santana’s contract could hinder a trade to the Rox, as he’s due a guaranteed $35MM over the next couple years (including a $500K buyout in 2021).
  • It doesn’t seem the rebuilding Rangers have any untouchables on their roster, TR Sullivan of MLB.com relays, as president Jon Daniels indicated Sunday that the team’s main goal is to improve its long-term outlook. The Rangers are “not looking to move these guys, but we are open on a lot of things,” Daniels said of their top players. Dominant reliever Jose Leclerc, who’s controllable through 2022, clearly stands out as one of Texas’ most valuable trade chips. Many teams have inquired about Leclerc, 24, but the Rangers have discussed extending him in a deal that would buy out free-agent years, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram reports. Like Leclerc, infielder Jurickson Profar ranks as one of the Rangers’ most appealing players, though he only has another two years of control left. If the Rangers market Profar, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News observes that he could be of particular interest to teams that lose out on the Manny Machado derby in free agency.
  • More on the Rangers, who are trying to entice free agents with their forthcoming new ballpark, Daniels revealed (via Wilson). Regarding Globe Life Field, which will open in 2020, Daniels said: “It’s part of the story. We’ve talked more about the amenities we’re going to have. It’s going to be a place that players are going to want to play.” Daniels conceded, however, that there are other factors which outweigh the quality of a team’s ballpark – including finances, the happiness of the player’s family and whether the team chasing him is in position to win.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/9/18

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Keeping up with the latest minor moves from around baseball:

  • Former White Sox outfielder Dayan Viciedo has re-signed with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball on a three-year deal, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The contract’s “believed” to be worth $10MM, per Heyman. Viciedo, who will turn 30 in March, last played in the majors in 2014. He immigrated to NPB prior to the 2016 season and has since slashed .298/.371/.505 with 66 home runs in 1,420 trips to the plate.

Earlier updates:

  • The Rockies have signed right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez to a minor league contract, Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports. Gonzalez was a first-round pick of the Rangers in 2013 who combined for 77 1/3 innings with them from 2015-16, but he struggled to a 4.54 ERA/5.06 FIP with ugly strikeout and walk rates (4.31 K/9, 4.77 BB/9) during that span. Gonzalez then underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2017, leading the Rangers to non-tender him and then re-sign him to a minors pact in the ensuing offseason. The 26-year-old threw just 10 innings at the lower levels of the minor leagues in 2018 as he worked his way back. Gonzalez is now pitching in the Dominican league, Eddy notes.
  • The Reds have re-signed outfielder Aristides Aquino to a minor league deal, Eddy tweets (and as Greeneville Reds play-by-play announcer Justin Rocke first reported earlier this week). Cincinnati non-tendered Aquino last week, but it was reported at the time that the team was interested in bringing him back. The 24-year-old will now remain with the Reds, his only professional organization since he signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2011. Aquino played almost exclusively at the Double-A level from 2017-18 and combined to hit .227/.293/.421 with 37 home runs in 949 plate appearances, though he did appear in one Reds game last season.

West Notes & Rumors: Dodgers, Puig, Kemp, Rox, Rangers

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Yasiel Puig has been popular in trade rumors dating back to 2016, but the Dodgers have nonetheless retained the outfielder to this point. However, it’s possible that will change this offseason – perhaps as early as the upcoming week’s Winter Meetings. The Dodgers limited Puig’s playing time against left-handed pitchers in 2018, which has left him “disgruntled,” “distrustful of management” and “open” to playing for another team, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times writes. While the right-handed Puig has offered above-average production versus lefties over his career, he has struggled against them since 2017, leading to diminished at-bats last season. Still, it’s not certain the Dodgers will trade the 28-year-old Puig, Hernandez suggests, adding that he likely wouldn’t bring much back in a deal. And the Dodgers aren’t interested in dumping Puig’s projected $11.3MM salary for the sake of doing it, per Hernandez. Rather, it seems they’d want a legitimate return for Puig’s last year of team control. Consequently, despite Puig’s current dissatisfaction with the Dodgers, he could end up remaining in their uniform in 2019.

  • More on the Dodgers, who will attempt to trade outfielder Matt Kemp this winter, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports. The Dodgers reunited with Kemp last December in an unorthodox, luxury tax-based trade with the Braves, and the 34-year-old went on to enjoy a productive season in Los Angeles. Kemp faded during the second half of 2018, however, and is due $21.5MM in 2019 – the last year of his deal. The former MVP candidate will be extremely difficult for LA to move, then, though perhaps it could swap him for another team’s unwanted contract.
  • With the Rockies looking to upgrade an offense that was woeful in 2018, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post focuses on first base and the outfield as areas they could attempt to strengthen. In an ideal world, the Rockies would add a power-hitting first basemen, enabling them to shift Ian Desmond to the outfield, Saunders notes. As for A.J. Pollock, the best free-agent center fielder available, his current asking price is likely out of the Rockies’ range, according to Saunders.
  • Given that the rebuilding Rangers don’t figure to contend in the next couple years, they should consider trading the likes of Jurickson Profar and Nomar Mazara this offseason, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News opines. Although the 25-year-old Profar finally began living up to his top prospect billing in 2018, and is only projected to earn $3.4MM in 2019, the infielder is not under control past 2020.  Mazara, 23, will be similarly affordable next season ($3.7MM), the outfielder’s first of three potential arbitration years, but hasn’t yet delivered on the hype he garnered as a prospect.

Mets, Others Involved In J.T. Realmuto Market

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TODAY: The Mets are “resistant” on including Rosario in a deal, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). It seems the Marlins have at least some level of interest, unsurprisingly, in Nimmo, Conforto, and Rosario.

All things considered, it does not appear at present as if the sides have settled upon a clear potential deal structure. There could well be other moving parts to getting something done. After all, the Mets would need to fill in for any departing MLB assets while the Marlins could conceivably involve a third team to spin off any acquired MLB pieces.

YESTERDAY, 8:32pm: The Mets have spoken to the Marlins and are at least considering the possibility of including Nimmo as a centerpiece in a Realmuto deal, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. That said, Sherman cautions that there’s no deal close and that the Marlins are still in talks with multiple other clubs.

However, whether that would be enough for the Mets remains to be seen. Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that the Marlins don’t view Nimmo as a potential Realmuto centerpiece and would prefer Rosario or Conforto to headline a package of young players instead. That’s at least somewhat curious, given the fact that Conforto has only one more season of club control remaining than Realmuto.

6:55pm: Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that it’s unlikely the Mets would include Conforto in a trade for Realmuto.

5:35pm: Trade chatter surrounding J.T. Realmuto will persist throughout the offseason following the definitive declaration that he won’t be signing an extension with the Marlins. While the Marlins reportedly have a preference to trade Realmuto outside of the division, Andy Martino of SNY writes that the Mets are looking into Realmuto now that they officially have Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz on board. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, in fact, reports that the Mets reached out on Realmuto earlier today and are being “aggressive” in their pursuit (Twitter links).

Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that the belief is that the Mets would have to include at least one young Major Leaguer in order to pry Realmuto loose from Miami, and Rosenthal suggests the same. (The Mets subtracted a pair of high-end prospects from its system when trading outfielder Jarred Kelenic and right-hander Justin Dunn to Seattle in the Cano/Diaz swap.) Martino speculated that Amed Rosario’s name could come into play, and Rosenthal adds both Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto as the type of talents that could pique Miami’s interest. Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Mets would have any actual interest in dealing from that promising young trio. More specifically Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Rosario and Nimmo would be Miami’s top two targets in talks.

The Mets already tendered contracts to both Kevin Plawecki and Travis d’Arnaud, though either could be traded elsewhere or designated for assignment anyway, should the organization land an upgrade in the form of Realmuto. (Speculatively, either could also be sent back to Miami as a short-term stopgap in the absence of Realmuto.)

Elsewhere in the NL East (which, to this point, has been the runaway most active division in terms of offseason activity), Craig Mish of SiriusXM tweets that the Phillies have inquired on Realmuto but are considered to be a long shot. The Phils presently have Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp as in-house catching options now that Wilson Ramos is a free agent, and they’ve been aggressive early this winter, already acquiring Jean Segura and James Pazos from the Mariners.

Mish also suggests that the Braves have inquired on Realmuto, although both David O’Brien of The Athletic and Heyman have tweeted otherwise. O’Brien indicates that he was somewhat bluntly told there’s no validity to the report that Austin Riley and Mike Soroka have come up in discussions, while Heyman reports that the Braves haven’t even engaged on any serious Realmuto talks this winter.  O’Brien further adds that the Braves have shifted their focus to adding a corner outfielder and shoring up the pitching staff (Twitter links).

Looking outside the NL East, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that the Rockies have checked in on the catcher — although talks between the two sides, to this point, have failed to progress. Colorado would make a perfectly logical landing spot, though, given that none of Chris Iannetta, Tony Wolters or Tom Murphy stands out as an obvious front-line option. The Rockies also have plenty of young pitching — much of it MLB-ready, which would surely be of interest to the Marlins as they continue to build for the future.

It’s worth remembering, too, that the clubs here likely only represent a fraction of the market for Realmuto. Heyman notes that 14 teams have inquired with the Marlins about Realmuto this winter, and while clearly not all of those clubs will be particularly aggressive in their pursuit, the sheer volume underscores how many teams view the All-Star backstop as a potential difference maker. A trade isn’t necessarily guaranteed, but it’s likely that Realmuto’s value is at its apex this winter. The Marlins surely know that their time with Realmuto is limited following comments from agent Jeff Berry and, per Mish, a pair of rejected extension offers of four and five years in length (both at prices that are nowhere near Realmuto’s actual market value).

Rockies Non-Tender Sam Howard

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The Colorado Rockies non-tendered Sam Howard yesterday, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com (via Twitter). Howard is now a free agent.

Howard, 25, made his major league debut last season, appearing in four games for the Rockies and giving up just a single earned run in four innings. The Georgia native was a third round pick of the Rockies in 2014, spending most of his time in the minors as a starter. Last year with Triple A Albuquerque, Howard started 21 games, earning a 3-8 record with a 4.95 ERA.

The Rockies will presumably look into bringing Howard back, but with their 40-man roster maxed out, the non-tender gives Colorado a valuable roster spot to work with.

Meanwhile, Colorado agreed to a new one-year, $1.6875MM deal with lefty Chris Rusin yesterday, while tendering contracts to their other arbitration eligible players. The Rockies 40-man roster now sits at 39.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday

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With the non-tender deadline looming tomorrow, there figure to be several players agreeing to pre-tender deals to avoid arbitration today. Many players who agree to terms prior to the deadline will be fringe non-tender candidates and, as such, are likelier to sign for less than they’d been projected in order to avoid a non-tender. We’ll keep track of today’s players who are avoiding arbitration in this post (with all referenced projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)…

  • The Royals announced that they’ve agreed to one-year deals with both Cheslor Cuthbert and Jesse Hahn. Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (via Twitter) that Cuthbert will earn $850K, while Hahn’s deal contains an $800K base salary. Both were definitive non-tender candidates, as Cuthbert batted just .194/.282/.301 in 117 plate appearances this past season. Hahn, meanwhile, didn’t pitch in 2018 due to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament that ultimately required “primary repair” surgery — a similar, but less invasive alternative to Tommy John surgery that is perhaps familiar to Royals fans after Seth Maness previously underwent the procedure.

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Market Chatter: Indians, Moose, Cano, Diaz, Thor, Pads

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The Indians’ rotation has come up in trade rumors over the past month, as Cleveland looks to manage a roster with multiple holes and a crowded payroll that is already at franchise-record levels. However, while Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have been speculative candidates to be moved, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that teams who’ve spoken to the Indians get the sense that Cleveland is more amenable to trading right-hander Trevor Bauer. Kluber is controlled through 2021, while Carrasco is locked into a club-friendly deal through the 2020 season. Bauer, though, is arbitration-eligible for another two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $11.6MM in 2019 — a projection he explored at greater length earlier today. If the Indians are to move a starter, there’s some sense behind making it the one of their “big three” who has the shortest amount of team control and least cost certainty, though there’s still no indication that the team is aggressively shopping any of its starters. The ask on Bauer would figure to be huge — likely including pre-arbitration, MLB-ready help — given Bauer’s 2.21 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.46 HR/9 and 44.5 percent grounder rate in 175 1/3 innings in 2018.

Some more notes on the trade and free-agent markets…

  • Mike Moustakas is “on the radar” for the Cardinals as they look for a corner infield bat, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. While Cards didn’t show much in the way of interest last winter, the absence of draft-pick compensation being attached to Moustakas is an important distinction that has them at least exploring the possibility this time around. Meanwhile, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Cards “made a competitive bid” for Josh Donaldson before the 32-year-old signed a one-year, $23MM contract with the Braves. There were similar reports about the Cardinals’ efforts to sign Jason Heyward and David Price, and the Cardinals also came up shy in their pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton last year when the slugger wouldn’t waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to St. Louis. Of course, Moustakas is not likely to generate the level of market interest that those players did.
  • There has been quite a lot of chatter regarding Mariners infielder Robinson Cano since it emerged recently that the club would like to find a way to dump his contract, though it’s far from evident whether there’s a particularly realistic match to be found. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand says that some feel the M’s will find a taker, though he later added that Cano hasn’t yet been approached by the team about waiving his no-trade rights or about giving a list of destinations as to which he’d be amenable. (Twitter links.) One key factor in the Cano situation is the notion of the Mariners dealing star closer Edwin Diaz as a means of offloading the money owed Cano. There is indeed some willingness to do so on the part of the Seattle organization, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. But it seems clubs with interest in Diaz aren’t necessarily amenable to taking on enough of the $120MM still owed to Cano to make it work. Sherman lists the Mets, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, and Red Sox as teams angling for Diaz, not all of which have any inclination to pick up Cano. That’s not surprising, as it’s an awfully steep dollar amount, even though the long-time star second baseman does still have value himself on the ballfield. That said, Diaz arguably could command something approaching that whopping sum in a hypothetical open-market scenario. After all, he stands out against any other potentially available relievers this winter for his excellence, age, and control. That makes this general structure at least somewhat plausible, though it’ll surely be quite complicated to pull something off.
  • It seems the Mets have quite a few balls in the air at the moment as new GM Brodie Van Wagenen searches for a significant deal that will help jumpstart the franchise. Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link) and Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter) each doused the flames of speculation involving the Mets as a possible match in a Cano swap. But that doesn’t mean the team didn’t explore the subject with the Mariners. SNY.tv’s Andy Martino suggested some possible scenarios involving Cano, though really the basic framework does not seem workable from the Seattle side. Martino says the clubs have batted around a concept in which Seattle would both pay about $50MM of Cano’s salary and take on more in return, such as through Jay Bruce’s $26MM contract, while sending Diaz or Mitch Haniger to New York. Trouble is, the implication there is that the Mets could buy one of those excellent young players for less than $50MM, which doesn’t seem like sufficient salary relief for the Mariners to justify the loss of such core talent.
  • Meanwhile, the biggest name seemingly in play on the Mets’ side is Noah Syndergaard, the uber-talented but health-questionable young righty. The Padres have made clear they won’t part with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., per Martino, which dovetails with expectations. While the report indicates that the teams have also discussed San Diego backstop Austin Hedges, he certainly does not profile as a centerpiece in a deal for Syndergaard. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription links) suggests the Rockies could be an under-the-radar suitor for Syndergaard, who’d turn their rotation into a potentially outstanding unit. Though the offense is surely the priority in Colorado, that can be addressed through relatively low-cost investments; adding Thor, meanwhile, is surely an intriguing thought.

Arbitration Breakdown: Nolan Arenado

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Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.

Nolan Arenado already earned $17.75 million in 2018, and put together another storied season. He led the league with 38 home runs, and hit .297 while knocking in 110 runs. He won yet another Gold Glove, yet another Silver Slugger, made the All Star Game, and again finished in the Top 5 of MVP Voting. That makes for his sixth, fourth, fourth, and third consecutive season in each of those accomplishments.

Entering his fourth year of arbitration, it stands to reason that Arenado will earn more than any player ever has in arbitration. After all, Josh Donaldson currently holds that record at $23 million just last year. Since the arbitration system generally awards raises based on platform year performance (except for in the player’s first year of arbitration eligibility), Donaldson’s level of pay would only reflect a $5.25 million raise, which is frankly too small for Arenado.

Indeed, the model predicts a big move up to $26.1MM for Arenado, which would represent a raise of over $8MM from his 2018 salary. Notably, too, there is some uncertainty present, since he earned $17.75 million last year only as part of a two year deal. Players do sometimes get treated differently in the event of returning to arbitration following multi-year deals. In the industry, this is often termed a “re-slot.” Probably the most recent notable example of such was Bryce Harper. In 2017, he received an $8.625 million raise from $5 to $13.625 million after a two-year deal. In that case, Harper had won the MVP Award in the first year of the two covered by the earlier agreement, and may have been treated as someone who would be re-slotted. In this case, if we were to estimate what Arenado would have earned in arbitration in 2018 based on his 2017 performance, we might have guessed $20.7 million rather than $17.75 million.

So, if anything, we would probably expect Arenado to argue for more than $26.1 million based on a re-slotting. Already in uncharted waters in terms of salary, that may or may not be a hard sell. After all, at that point, we would be looking at a “Kimbrel Rule” situation. That “rule” is named after Craig Kimbrel, and basically describes the maximum amount that we should expect a player to break the record raise for his service class. This rule exists because Craig Kimbrel’s first year of arbitration eligibility was so unique that my model had him earning significantly more than any closer had ever earned. We therefore capped his projection. The Kimbrel rule as applied to Arenado would give him a $26.75 million maximum, not much different than his $26.1 million projection.

If we look for comparables, it’s hard to find any for Arenado regardless of the method used to evaluate him. Donaldson would actually be a floor in my estimation. He hit .270 with 33 HR and 78 RBI in 2017, but in just 496 PA. With Arenado stepping up to the plate a whopping 673 times, and hitting .297 with 38 HR and 110 RBI, he will surely not command a smaller raise than Donaldson’s $6 million.

One potential comparable for Arenado could be teammate Charlie Blackmon, who produced .331/37/104 the year before last, and got a $6.7 million raise. We might expect that to be a rather close match for Arenado, although Blackmon’s ultimate raise was called into question by other agents at the time. Still, if we think that Arenado would come in at about a $6.7 million raise, that would land him at a $24.45 million salary — less than his $26.1 million projection. On the other hand, if Arenado’s Gold Gloves or higher service time factor in, we may still be north of that and closer to his projection.

Arenado will be an interesting, record-breaking case this year. With several complicating factors impacting his case, there’s a fairly large spread of dollars theoretically open for discussion. Ultimately, I suspect that the model is pretty close, but I could see being off by a couple million in either direction.

Mets Claim Jordan Patterson From Rockies

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The Mets announced Monday that they’ve claimed outfielder/first baseman Jordan Patterson off waivers from the Rockies. The Mets’ 40-man roster is now at 39 players.

Patterson, 27, hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2016 but has enjoyed plenty of success in Triple-A to this point in his career. In parts of three seasons, the left-handed-hitting Patterson is a .282/.363/.516 hitter with Triple-A Albuquerque, though Mets fans should be plenty familiar with the caveat that the Pacific Coast League is an immensely hitter-friendly environment. Defensively, Patterson has nearly 3200 innings in right field, more than 2000 innings at first base and more than 300 innings in left field.

NL Notes: Rockies, Cardinals, Nationals

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Nolan Arenado projects to head up the 2019-20 free agent class, and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post finds similarities with Matt Holliday’s departure from the franchise a decade ago.  Holliday explained to Saunders why he found the Rockies’ final contract extension offer “disappointing,” while former GM Dan O’Dowd also provided his contrasting recollection of the situation.

  • Holliday also took part in a fascinating lunch with members of the St. Louis Cardinals coaching crew recently. Manager Mike Shildt, bench coach Oliver Marmol and new hitting coach Jeff Albert shared a chance meal with Holliday at the Cardinals’ training facility in Jupiter, Florida where Holliday spends his offseason. Per the Athletic’s Bernie Miklasz, the foursome spent their lunch session talking hitting approaches, data usage and baseball philosophy. Specifically, Shildt hopes to improve the Cardinals contact rates this season, hence the hiring of Albert, who specializes in helping players refine their approach at the plate. One interesting exercise Albert used in his former post with the Astros involved making hitters verbally identify a pitch as a ball or a strike during batting practice. With repetition, Houston players improved in their ability to accurately differentiate balls from strikes. Shildt began shifting the Cardinals to a more contact-oriented approach when he replaced Mike Matheny last season, but this year he’ll have reinforcements in his efforts to further decrease the Cardinals’ strikeout rate.
  • Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com suggests the Nationals might not be finished in their search for a frontline catcher, despite the recent signing of Kurt Suzuki. The 35-year-old backstop may easily give the Nats 50 to 60 games behind the dish, but few teams employ a true workhouse catcher nowadays and Suzuki might be better suited as the lesser half of a catching tandem. Kerzel imagines the possible ways in which GM Mike Rizzo might pair Suzuki with Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto or Wilson Ramos, though he admits it is equally likely the Nationals head into next season with Suzuki atop the depth chart. Considering Suzuki was arguably the top option available this winter outside the big three listed above, it would be quite the coup for the Nats to come away with another top option at this juncture. Still, durability concerns for a 35-year-old backstop aren’t wholly unreasonable.
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