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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies were bit hard by the injury bug in 2013 and found themselves reeling after a hot start to the season.  Now, they’ll look to bolster their lineup to make that springtime success last all year long.

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On May 1st, the Rockies were in the NL West driver’s seat with a 17-11 record after a hot start to the year.  Things eventually petered out from there – the Rockies finished in fifth place at 74-88 – but it was a taste of what could be for the Rockies when they’re firing on all cylinders.  Everyone deals with injuries over the course of a 162-game season, but Colorado had some of the worst luck of anyone in 2013.  The top of their order was a mess as Carlos Gonzalez (played just 110 games), Troy Tulowitzki (126), and Dexter Fowler (119) all missed significant time.  Closer Rafael Betancourt was also out of commission for much of the year, a big letdown on the heels of a strong 2012.

The Rockies aren’t just keeping their fingers crossed for good health though.  They’ll have to go shopping this winter for upgrades in multiple areas and fixing the bullpen is at the top of the list.  Rockies relievers had a combined ERA of 4.26, the worst in the National League.  Betancourt’s health woes were certainly a factor, but far from the only one.  Wilton Lopez regressed sharply after a career year in Houston and even though one would be inclined to pin that difference on the move to Coors Field, his home/road splits in 2013 were mostly similar.  Setup man Matt Belisle (4.32 ERA, 7.6 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 2013) hasn’t looked like the same guy who signed a two-year, $8.1MM deal two offseasons ago and no one would be surprised if the Rockies gave him his $250K buyout rather than bring him back for $4.25MM next year.  There are also a handful of arbitration eligible relievers with varying levels of uncertainty about their future this winter in Mitchell Boggs, Manny Corpas, and Josh Outman.

Part of the bullpen’s problem was that Colorado relievers were simply overworked.  The starting five (particularly the backend) was unreliable, forcing the pen to toss a National League high of 555 2/3 innings.  The Rockies can comfortably roll with Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge De La Rosa, and Tyler Chatwood at the top of the rotation, but they’ve got a lot of question marks beyond that.  Juan Nicasio, who is arbitration eligible as a Super Two this winter, pitched to a 5.14 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 31 starts last year.  If they open up the wallet a little bit, guys like Roberto Hernandez will be on the open market for the taking.  If they dig a little deeper and are willing to lay out a deal with plenty of incentives, they could get creative and get in the mix for Tim Hudson who, as MLBTR learned last week, is about a month away from returning to full health.  One notable caveat here – it’s impossible to say what kind of deal Hudson will fetch given all of the variables in play.  The question marks are there, but starting pitching is thin all over baseball.

The Rockies were actually decent in terms of power last season but they don’t have a lot of big bats they can count on.  Healthy seasons from Tulowitzki and CarGo are a must but Bill Geivett & Co. are going to seek another slugger.  A healthy Corey Hart would provide some pop (and versatility in the field) at a lowered price after missing all of ’13, but he wants to stay in Milwaukee and he’s willing to take a discount to make that happen.  Mike Napoli will also be out there and if the Rockies want to get creative, they could sign him and dangle Wilin Rosario on the trade block.

Hoping to see a mile-high blockbuster this winter?  Things tend to change pretty quickly when the hot stove gets warmed up, but it doesn’t sound like Colorado is going to put Gonzalez or Tulowitzki on the block.  Last month, Troy Renck of the Denver Post heard from club officials that the possibility of either one getting moved is very small and the likelihood of both getting jettisoned is nil.  

If they have a change of heart, however, those stars could bring them an awful lot in return.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports sees the Rangers as a logical partner thanks to their young pitching and middle infield surplus.  In this hypothetical, Jurickson Profar would supplant DJ LeMathieu or Josh Rutledge at second base and eventually go to the other side of the bag if Tulo is shifted to a different position.  Rosenthal hears that CarGo is more likely to be moved than the shortstop and it’s worth noting that he has some serious fans in the Mets’ front office.  

Fowler could also serve as trade bait if someone is willing to roll the dice on him, but it would thin out their outfield if they don’t bring in a reinforcement there.  As it stands, right fielder Michael Cuddyer is ticketed to replace Todd Helton at first base, which likely means that either Charlie Blackmon or Corey Dickerson will get to play everyday.  It’s hard to see them starting together in 2014 – Blackmon’s defense (particularly in center) leaves much to be desired and Dickerson is entering his sophomore year.

In a recent letter to season ticket holders, owner Dick Monfort noted that Cuddyer’s move to first base opens the door for the club to go out and get a big bat in right field.  If Monfort is as serious about bringing a championship to Denver as he says, he can spend the necessary dough to get someone like Shin-Soo Choo or Carlos Beltran.  If the Rockies want to spread the cash around a little bit more, they’ll find a quieter market for Nelson Cruz.  One thing to keep in mind, however, is that they can always change course and keep Cuddyer in the outfield if they find a quality first baseman at a good value.

The Rox have a lot of holes to fill but last season’s hot start, however brief, proved they can be competitive in the NL West and have a puncher’s chance at the playoffs.  

Rockies Rumors: Cespedes, Weiss, Cuddyer

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Here's a look at the latest out of Denver..

  • Troy Renck of the Denver Post sees Yoenis Cespedes as a name for Rockies fans to file away this offseason.  The A's like to think outside of the box and could consider deals for the slugger.  One of Cespedes' main drawbacks is that he misses chunks of time, but the Rockies have solid depth with Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson.
  • Rockies owner Dick Monfort met with his front office staff last week and no major changes are expected, Renck writes.  Small changes could see assistant GM Bill Geivett assume more traditional GM duties.  Manager Walt Weiss' contract situation should be resolved soon, with the possibility that he receives a multiyear deal, or a one-year deal with a club option.
  • Monfort wrote a letter to season ticket holders pledging to do everything he can to win a championship, Renck writes.  Within the letter, Monfort noted that Michael Cuddyer will likely take over for Todd Helton at first base, creating "an opportunity to fill (right field) with a big bat."

Arbitration Eligibles: Colorado Rockies

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Rockies are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Lopez took a step back in 2013, but at $2.2MM the Rockies are still expected to retain him.  Nicasio made 31 starts this year, and while he wasn't great, he figures to stick around.  Outman and Herrera both had solid campaigns and are secure.

Boggs began the season as the Cardinals' interim closer in the wake of Jason Motte's injury, but was optioned to Triple-A by May.  He bounced up and down after that, and was traded to the Rockies in July for international bonus money. Boggs struggled at Triple-A for the Rockies and made only nine appearances with the big club.  "I would like for that to be here because I feel it’s a good fit," Boggs said of the Rockies and returning to a late inning role, to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch in September.  Boggs is no sure thing to be tendered, but given his low projected salary and past success, I lean toward the Rockies giving him another look next year.

Corpas, 30, has served as the Rockies' closer at various times in his career and found his way back to the organization on a minor league deal in January.  He wound up making 31 appearances for the big club, but will probably be deemed expendable.

Assuming Lopez, Nicasio, Boggs, Outman, and Herrera are tendered contracts, the Rockies are looking at an estimated $8MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Quick Hits: Byrd, Angels, Mariners, Ripken, Weiss

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The Reds could have claimed outfielder Marlon Byrd, who the Pirates acquired in August, but they passed on the chance, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports notes (on Twitter). Byrd was owed near the league-minimum salary and was in the midst of a solid year, and it was well-known that the Reds' division rivals in Pittsburgh needed an outfielder. The Reds had waiver priority, and thus could have blocked the Mets from trading Byrd to Pittsburgh. But they didn't, and he homered against them in their 6-2, season-ending loss to the Bucs Tuesday night. The primary purpose of claiming Byrd would have been to block the Pirates from getting him, but it's worth noting, too, that the righty Byrd could have been quite helpful for the Reds tonight against Bucs lefty starter Francisco Liriano, who baffled the Reds' lefty-heavy lineup with sliders. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • The Angels still haven't dismissed GM Jerry Dipoto or manager Mike Scioscia, and that might be an indication that both will still be with the team in 2014, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times writes. The Angels' massively disappointing season and reports of conflict between Dipoto and Scioscia have led to reports that one of them might depart at the end of the season, but so far that hasn't happened. Scioscia is owed around $27MM over the next five years, and Dipoto is under contract through next year.
  • Mariners Chairman/CEO Howard Lincoln is expressing confidence in GM Jack Zduriencik, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports. After a recent series of poor seasons and the abrupt departure of manager Eric Wedge, the Mariners appear to be in disarray. But Lincoln says that firing Zduriencik would lead the organization in the wrong direction. "I know how frustrated the fans are. No one is more frustrated than I am," he says. "But we have to be patient and stick with the program we have invested so much in. We can't switch horses, change gears, whatever you want to call it now. That's not a good idea." Lincoln also says the Mariners have received inquiries from plenty of potential managerial applicants, even though Zduriencik's questionable status might appear to make the Mariners' managerial job an undesirable one.
  • Former Orioles great Cal Ripken Jr. isn't tipping his hand about whether he might be interested in managing the Nationals, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. He does, however, seem interested in managing a big-league team someday. "At some point I might like to do that," Ripken says. The Nationals will be looking for a manager to replace the retiring Davey Johnson. In August, in response to a question about managing, Ripken said, "I think I would be more curious at this stage in my life than I have been."
  • Rockies manager Walt Weiss isn't under contract for 2014, but the team wants him to return, writes Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. The Rockies hired Weiss after the 2012 season, signing him to a one-year deal. His next contract might be a two-year deal, or perhaps a one-year deal with an option.
  • Renck also notes that, while the Rockies' main front-office personnel will likely remain the same, roles could change, perhaps with Bill Geivett moving into "more of a traditional GM role." Geivett currently reports to GM Dan O'Dowd, but Geivett currently runs Major League operations while O'Dowd works on the minor leagues.

Rockies Notes: Weiss, Offseason, Front Office

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There's been plenty of manager news today, with the Twins extending Ron Gardenhire, the Cubs firing Dale Sveum and the Mets making Terry Collins' two-year pact official. Troy Renck of the Denver Post adds to the subject matter, noting that the Rockies will address manager Walt Weiss' contract this week at their organizational meetings in Scottsdale. The issue at hand with Weiss, according to Renck, isn't whether or not he'll be back, but for how many years (Twitter link). Here's more on the Rockies…

  • Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post runs down the Rockies' biggest needs for this offseason. Colorado's top priorities will include finding another quality starter, landing a right-handed slugger, and rebuilding the shaky bullpen. When it comes to their relievers, Colorado will have a decision to make when it comes to their $4.5MM option on Matt Belisle for 2014.
  • Owner Dick Monfort doesn't anticipate any changes to the front office, according to Renck and Saunders. However, ESPN's Buster Olney hears differently and tweets that changes are on the horizon for the Rockies' brass.
  • The Rockies will have to add a couple of pieces this winter and they'll have a larger payroll to help make that happen, writes MLB.com's Thomas Harding.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Retirement Notes: Helton, Johnson, Oliver, Konerko

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The season ended Sunday for 19 of baseball's 30 teams, many of which feature players who will not be back in 2014. Here are some notes on players whose careers might (or might not) be over.

  • Rockies great Todd Helton's illustrious career ended in Los Angeles, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. Dodgers broadcaster recorded a tribute to Helton that played on the scoreboard before the game, and he received a standing ovation for his last plate appearance. "The last at-bat, I got a little emotional, but other than that, it's Sept. 29th and I'm ready to go home," Helton says. Helton finishes his 17-year career with 369 home runs.
  • Nationals manager Davey Johnson leaves the game with a 1372-1071 career record, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Johnson will continue on with the Nationals as a senior adviser, although he's not expected to play a strong role in the organization.
  • Veteran lefty Darren Oliver ended his two-decade career with a perfect inning for the Blue Jays on Sunday, MLB.com's Evan Peaslee reports. "20 years — very few guys get to do that," Jays manager John Gibbons says. "Longevity in this business is hard to come by, but to do it for that long and be that effective until the very end that speaks volumes." Oliver, 42, also pitched for the Cardinals, Red Sox, Rockies, Marlins, Astros, Mets and Angels, and he had three separate stints with the Rangers. He finishes his career with a 4.51 ERA, 5.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 over 1,915 2/3 innings.
  • White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko still hasn't announced whether he's retiring, but he left Sunday's game against the Royals to applause, reports MLB.com's Scott Merkin. After a tough .245/.314/.356 season, it's unclear whether Konerko will be back, and if so, if that might be in a part-time role. Merkin notes that Konerko think for a month this offseason about whether or not to return in 2014. If he does want to return, the White Sox will have to decide whether to re-sign him.

NL Notes: Dodgers, Oswalt, Coonelly

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The Dodgers will not be bidders for Robinson Cano, Mark Feinsand of New York Daily News reports. The Dodgers could soon sign Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero, which would mean they won't need a second baseman, but Feinsand writes that even if Guerrero and the Dodgers don't come to terms, the Dodgers aren't planning on signing Cano. Here are more notes from around the National League.

  • Roy Oswalt would like to return to the Rockies, writes Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post (on Twitter). The veteran pitcher says he would be interested in starting or relieving. Oswalt posted an 8.63 ERA in 32 1/3 innings for Colorado this year, although with 9.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 — a .442 BABIP seems to be the primary factor in Oswalt's poor results.
  • Pirates president Frank Coonelly will not head back to MLB's front office after Bud Selig's retirement, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports. Coonelly served as Major League Baseball's senior vice president and general counsel of labor before the Pirates hired him in 2007. "I really enjoy it in Pittsburgh," says Coonelly. "We're just starting to have fun here, and I want to be around for the fun."

AL East Notes: Price, Longoria, Ortiz, Helton

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We've already shared a Nate McLouth free agent profile, some Blue Jays notes, Yankees notes and the news of Robinson Cano's contract demands today, so let's take a look around the rest of the AL East…

  • This could be David Price's last season and playoff run with the Rays, as CBS Sports' Danny Knobler figures that this offseason (when Price has two remaining years of team control) is the perfect time for the Rays to maximize their return on a trade.
  • Rays third baseman Evan Longoria looked up to Derek Jeter as a kid, yet he didn't emulate Jeter by playing for the Yankees but rather by staying with one franchise for his career, Harvey Araton of the New York Times writes.  Robinson Cano has the opportunity to be a one-franchise player if he re-signs with the Yankees this offseason and Longoria believes Cano will stay because the Yankees are always looking to contend.  “I’m sure Robby realizes that his organization is never going into a year saying they are rebuilding,” Longoria said. “You can’t not like that, or respect that.”
  • Unless David Ortiz goes on the DL over the next four days, the Red Sox slugger has stayed healthy enough to add an extra $4MM to his 2014 salary, ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes writes.  Ortiz the first 20 days of the season on the DL with his right Achilles injury but hasn't returned, so he is now guaranteed $15MM in the final year of his two-year contract with the Sox.
  • The Red Sox were Todd Helton's last opponent at Coors Field, and Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe notes that the Sox twice tried to acquire Helton from the Rockies.  A proposed 2002 blockbuster would've seen Helton and Larry Walker go to Boston in exchange for a trade package headlined by Manny Ramirez, and then in 2008 the Rockies turned down an offer of Mike Lowell for Helton straight-up.
  • The time has come for the Orioles to increase payroll and add the necessary remaining pieces to their contending roster, Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun argues.

Quick Hits: Gregg, Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, Kendrick

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Kevin Gregg blasted the Cubs after misunderstanding comments from manager Dale Sveum and president Theo Epstein said it was possible that he would release the veteran.  However, the Cubs decided over the weekend to accept Gregg's apology for the incident and will hang on to him, writes Fred Mitchell of the Chicago Tribune.  Here's more from around baseball..

  • The Rockies are not shopping all-stars Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, sources with direct knowledge of the club's plans told Troy Renck of the Denver Post.  There's still a very small possibility that one will be dealt to address multiple needs, but there is zero likelihood that both will be moved. Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that Rockies ownership doesn't have much interest in moving either player.
  • Also from Renck, he expects the Cardinals to pursue a trade for Tulowitzki this offseason.
  • After being shut down for the season, Phillies pitcher Kyle Kendrick is now shifting his focus towards 2014 and thinking about where he could be pitching next season, writes Kevin Roberts for MLB.com.  Kendrick, who made $4.5MM this season, will be eligible for salary arbitration this offseason.  
  • Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review puts the spotlight on Dan Fox, the man who built the Pirates' analytical department.

Cafardo On Girardi, Rockies, Gardenhire, Washington

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Agent Scott Boras wants to see the World Series elevated to the same level as the Super Bowl in terms of national buzz and corporate sponsorship and he believes he has a plan to make that happen, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  Boras proposes having the first or first two games played at a neutral site to combat the "regionalized" feel of the Fall Classic.  “It would be a gathering place for all of baseball,” Boras said. “The team officials would have to show up for the awards and other business. It could be the start of the hot-stove season as it once was. It would bring baseball center stage. It would make the World Series an event, much like the All-Star Game, which is the best in sports. Why not take all of the metrics of that event and apply them to the World Series?”  Here's more from today's column..

  • One Yankees official thinks it’s “70-30” that Joe Girardi returns next season as manager.  Girardi would be intrigued by the Cubs' managerial job and Chicago is said to be contemplating Dale Sveum’s future with the team.  Girardi has done a remarkable job this season, but Cafardo wonders if he might want out as the Bombers rebuild.  
  • There’s increased talk that Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd could be on the hot seat after the Rockies fell short of expectations this season.  The Rockies have a two-headed monster at the executive level that might not be working as well as expected and O'Dowd could be the man to go.
  • The biggest issue on whether the Twins bring Ron Gardenhire back is whether they believe he’s been on the job too long and has lost touch with his players.  While Minnesota has one of the deepest farm systems in baseball, GM Terry Ryan and owner Jim Pohlad have to decide if Gardenhire is the guy to lead the resurgence.
  • Internally, people in the Rangers organization have no doubts regarding Ron Washington’s job status.  That lines up with comments from GM Jon Daniels last week when he said that the skipper's job isn't in jeopardy.
  • Longtime MLB exec Andy MacPhail has taken some time away from the game but he's now ready to get back into baseball.  It's not clear exactly what he wants to do, but he probably doesn't want to be a GM.  Cafardo suggests that he could return to run an organization and his ties to commissioner Bud Selig could help his candidacy.
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