Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have openings at second base, the back of the rotation and in the bullpen, but the AL Central champions' core will return in 2012.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B: $86MM through 2015
- Justin Verlander, SP: $60.3MM through 2014
- Victor Martinez, DH: $38MM through 2014
- Joaquin Benoit, RP: $11MM through 2013
- Brandon Inge, UT: $6MM through 2012
- Jhonny Peralta, SS: $6MM through 2012
- Jacob Turner, SP: $2.35MM through 2013
- Ryan Raburn, UT: $2.1MM through 2012
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Delmon Young, OF: $6.3MM (non-tender candidate)
- Rick Porcello, SP: $4.2MM
- Max Scherzer, SP: $3.9MM
- Phil Coke, RP: $1.3MM
- Don Kelly, UT: $800K
- Brad Thomas, RP: $700K (non-tender candidate)
Contract Options
- Jose Valverde, RP: $9MM club option, no buyout (Type A Elias ranking)
Free Agents
- Magglio Ordonez (Type B OF), Wilson Betemit (Type B 3B), Carlos Guillen (unranked 2B), Ramon Santiago (unranked SS), Joel Zumaya (Type B RP), Brad Penny (unranked SP)
There was a lot to like about the 2011 Tigers team. Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and Alex Avila were among the best in baseball at their respective positions, Detroit won 95 regular season games and they defeated the Yankees in the Division Series. For the Tigers to return to the postseason in 2012, they'll have to address questions on the infield and add depth to the pitching staff.
If the Tigers retain all of their arbitration eligible players except non-tender candidate Brad Thomas and exercise Jose Valverde's option, as expected, they'll have nearly $100MM in commitments for next year, not including minimum salary players. Nine-figure payrolls are nothing new to the Tigers. They’ve spent more than $100MM in payroll each of the past four seasons, averaging $123MM since 2008. After spending $107MM in 2011 and making a run to the ALCS, it wouldn't be surprising if owner Mike Ilitch boosts payroll. Expect GM Dave Dombrowski to have the cash he needs to address the Tigers' weaknesses.
Manager Jim Leyland got by without an everyday second baseman in 2011. He mixed and matched Ryan Raburn, Ramon Santiago, Carlos Guillen and others, without relying on any one player for more than 62 games at the position. Santiago and Guillen both hit free agency this offseason, which leaves the Tigers with a clear vacancy.
Jamey Carroll, Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson are among the offseason's top available second basemen. Since the free agent market doesn't offer much, the Tigers will likely explore trades for alternatives. Blake DeWitt, Orlando Hudson, Maicer Izturis and Alberto Callaspo are among the second base trade targets for Dombrowski to consider. All four players will have new GMs this offseason, and though that doesn't mean they'll be on the block, it could make them easier to obtain. It will take some creativity for the Tigers to obtain an above-average second baseman given the current options at the position. If Dombrowski doesn't like the market at second base, he could sign a shortstop to play second or simply re-sign Santiago and focus on the left side of the infield.
The team could also use help at third base, as Wilson Betemit hits free agency and Brandon Inge doesn't provide enough offense for the position. The Tigers, never a team to shy away from top free agents, could pursue Aramis Ramirez. He'd keep Inge on the bench and add offense to a team that finished fourth in MLB in runs scored. Signing Ramirez would likely require a two or three-year commitment given the relatively weak class of free agent third basemen. It won't cost a draft pick, though, and 19-year-old prospect Nick Castellanos is not MLB-ready. The Tigers could be tempted to sign Jose Reyes and move Jhonny Peralta back to third base, but an acquisition at second or third seems more likely.
There's been speculation that the Tigers could pursue top free agent starters, such as C.C. Sabathia and Yu Darvish. While a starter of their caliber would no doubt improve the Tigers' rotation, it's not clear whether Dombrowski has serious interest in adding a top pitcher from the free agent market. The rotation, which includes right-handers Verlander, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, only has one opening. Brad Penny will likely depart via free agency and Phil Coke figures to stay in the bullpen, but the Tigers could give 2009 first rounder Jacob Turner an extended look in the rotation. The 20-year-old struggled through three MLB starts this year, but posted a 3.44 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 131 innings in the upper minors. If the Tigers don't add a top free agent starter, they will likely add an affordable arm or two to compete with Turner and Andy Oliver and provide depth in case of an injury.
Valverde, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth and Al Alburquerque figure to contribute to the Tigers' bullpen in 2012. Free agent Joel Zumaya could return on a minor league deal after missing the entire season with a right elbow injury. With so many holdovers, there may be concern about the 2011 bullpen's walk rate of 4.4 BB/9 — the highest among MLB 'pens. The Tigers will probably add at least one reliever this offseason to supplement the existing group.
The Magglio Ordonez era may be finished in Detroit, since the Tigers have younger, more affordable options who lack Ordonez’s health concerns. Austin Jackson has solidified his place in center field, Brennan Boesch posted a .799 OPS before tearing a thumb tendon in September, and Raburn and Don Kelly provide Leyland with depth. Delmon Young, who seemed destined for a non-tender with the Twins, probably earned himself an arbitration offer from the Tigers due to a strong finish. He hit eight home runs in the final six weeks of the regular season and added five more homers in the playoffs.
The Tigers have six free agents, including three Type B players, but they won't necessarily have extra draft picks in 2012. The risk that Zumaya and Ordonez would accept arbitration likely outweighs the possible reward of the supplemental pick. Betemit could be the lone candidate for an arbitration offer. He earned just $1MM in 2011 while posting a .795 OPS, so the downside of offering arbitration seems minimal. If he accepts, he's back on an affordable one-year deal, and if he declines and signs elsewhere, the Tigers get a draft pick. However, the Tigers already have Inge and Kelly under team control, so they may decide against carrying three third base options.
Alex Avila emerged as one of the game's top catchers this season, hitting 19 homers and posting a .295/.389/.506 line. Victor Martinez's knees prevented him from catching after August 4th, but he has said he can catch again in 2012. The Tigers will probably still want a third option behind the plate to reduce their reliance on Martinez's knees.
The Tigers may consider extensions for Avila and Jackson this offseason, though both are four seasons away from free agency. There's no rush to lock either player up.
Big name free agents such as Darvish and Reyes could have appeal for the Tigers, but Detroit's most pressing offseason need exists at second base. If Dombrowski can obtain a second baseman and add depth to his pitching staff, the Tigers will enter the 2012 season as favorites to repeat in the AL Central.
Quick Hits: Byrnes, Reds, Uehara, Young, Inge
The World Series is tied at a game apiece after the Rangers' thrilling 2-1 victory over the Cardinals tonight. As we look forward to Game Three on Saturday night at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, here are a few news items to round out the evening…
- The Diamondbacks will receive "a significant level of financial relief – and perhaps total relief" when and if Josh Byrnes becomes the Padres' new general manager, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Byrnes had five and a half years remaining on his contract with Arizona when he was fired on July 1, 2010, but the Snakes could be off the hook for the remaining four years left on that deal should Byrnes get another GM job.
- There is nothing new to report on the Reds' negotiations with Brandon Phillips or Francisco Cordero, Reds GM Walt Jocketty tells MLB.com's Mark Sheldon.
- Koji Uehara has told people close to him that he wants to return to the Orioles, reports MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli. After being dealt to Texas in July, Uehara struggled in the first two rounds of the playoffs and was left off the Rangers' World Series roster. The Japanese right-hander made enough appearances to activate a $4MM vesting option for 2012, so if the O's want Uehara back, the Rangers would probably be happy to unload him.
- The Red Sox have given the Athletics permission to interview pitching coach Curt Young about the pitching coach vacancy in Oakland, reports Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Joe Stiglich of the Bay Area News Group (Twitter link) reports Young and the A's are already in negotiations. Young served as Oakland's pitching coach from 2004-2010 before going to Boston to replace John Farrell last winter.
- The Tigers have enough money coming off the books this winter that Tom Gage of the Detroit News thinks Brandon Inge's contract could be swallowed if the team can find a better third base option on the trade market. Inge is set to earn $5.5MM in 2012 and the Tigers hold a $6MM club option on their longtime third baseman for 2013.
Quick Hits: Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees
On this date in 1979, the Pirates beat the Orioles 4-1 to win the World Series in seven games. Willie Stargell, the '79 NL MVP, hit a two-run home run in the victory. Here are links for Monday night as we await the beginning of this year's World Series…
- Jim Callis of Baseball America envisions Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo in Boston's 2015 rotation.
- Callis also explains that the Dodgers weren't sure what they had when they drafted right-hander Edwin Jackson in 2001. He was athletic enough to pitch or play in the outfield.
- Bob Simpson, a co-chairman of the Rangers' board, told reporters, including Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com, that the Rangers are committed to sustaining their current level of play.
- Victor Martinez told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he's prepared to catch in 2012. The switch-hitter didn't catch at all after August 4th because of a knee sprain, but he's willing to don the tools of ignorance again. Martinez's health will affect Detroit's level of interest in backup catchers this offseason.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests it will be hard to get the Yankees to offer C.C. Sabathia much more than Cliff Lee obtained from the Phillies ($120MM over five years). Sabathia is expected to opt out of the four years and $92MM remaining on his contract this offseason and though he enjoys playing in New York, it doesn't seem like he's going to give the Yankees a hometown discount.
- The Yankees favor Yu Darvish over C.J. Wilson of the Rangers, according to Sherman.
- ESPN.com's Buster Olney hears that Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer is highly regarded by the Angels. The Orioles hold D'Backs exec Jerry Dipoto in similarly high esteem, according to Olney (on Twitter).
Central Notes: Tigers, Astros, Cubs, Wolf
The Tigers' elimination from the postseason should lead to a handful of postmortems over the next few days, and we've got one in this batch of links …
- The Tigers are set with nearly all of their core players under team control, writes Jason Beck of MLB.com, but they'll have to address their need for some complementary players. In particular, Detroit will have to look at shoring up second base, third base and right-handed relief. Beck also wonders whether the Tigers will consider signing shortstop Jose Reyes and moving Jhonny Peralta over to the hot corner.
- Despite recent reports that Jim Crane will be approved as next Astros owner in November, Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle is "still not sure that's going to happen." MLB, extremely conscious of its image and the the images of its teams and owners, appears uncomfortable with aspects of Crane's background, according to Justice, including past allegations of discrimination, enumerated here in a Forbes.com report.
- Although compensation negotiations between the Cubs and Red Sox are reportedly becoming contentious, Alex Speier of WEEI.com opines that the deal is virtually inevitable, because too many interested parties want it to go through.
- Brewers lefty Randy Wolf has resurrected his career the past few seasons after missing a sizable chunk of his prime years to injury, writes Stephen Goff of the Houston Examiner. Wolf parlayed his brief stint with the Astros in 2008 into a one-year deal with the Dodgers and then a three-year pact with the Brewers. Houston GM Ed Wade wanted to re-sign Wolf after 2008, explains Goff, but felt he didn't have the payroll flexibility.
Central Links: Tigers, Avila, Votto, Epstein
The Rangers and Tigers are playing Game Six of the ALCS tonight, and Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News looks at how the 1999 trade that sent Juan Gonzalez from Texas to Detroit is still helping the Rangers today. Here are some links from baseball's two central divisions…
- Regardless of how the rest of their season plays out, David Mayo of The Grand Rapids Press says the Tigers won't have many issues to address this winter. Second base and a left-handed starter figure to top their shopping list, and $23MM is coming off the books in the form of Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen.
- Tigers assistant GM Al Avila has been mentioned as a GM candidate around the league, but ESPN's Jerry Crasnick says it's probably a long shot (all four Twitter links). "I'm very happy here,'' said Avila, who recently signed a four-year extension. "I have a great relationship with the ownership, and I've worked for [Dave Dombrowski] for 20 years.'' Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com says Avila's new contract prohibits him from interviewing for a GM job (on Twitter).
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says the Reds don't have to rush into a trade involving Joey Votto. They can wait until free agents Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols sign, which will give them an idea of what an extension for Votto would cost. It would also shed some light on potential trade suitors. GM Walt Jocketty recently shot down all the trade talk, however.
- While we wait for the Cubs and Red Sox to agree on compensation for Theo Epstein, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Chicago Sun Times says the GM will have a much tougher time turning the Cubs around than he did Boston nine years ago.
Managers And GMs Entering Their Contract Year
As Jim Riggleman would tell you, everyone in baseball wants more job security. Here is a list of managers and general managers whose contracts expire after 2012, featuring both extension candidates and those on the hot seat this winter. (Thanks to the always-invaluable Cot's Baseball Contracts for many of the details.)
White Sox: Kenny Williams has a rolling contract that automatically extends itself every year. Should Williams be fired, the Sox will owe him one year's worth of severance pay. With Ozzie Guillen now managing the Marlins, the spotlight will be directly on Williams to get the White Sox back on track following their rough 2011 season. Williams has already made one roll of the dice by hiring first-time manager Robin Ventura. White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf and Williams have a strong relationship, but if the team struggles again in 2012, the Sox could blow things up and rebuild under a new general manager.
Tigers: Jim Leyland entered this season as a lame duck and signed just a one-year contract extension from Detroit in August. This relative lack of security is how Leyland prefers it, however, since he isn't sure how much longer he'll continue to manage. Given the Tigers' success, one would think they'll let Leyland go year-to-year for as long as he feels up to the job.
Royals: Ned Yost is entering the last year of his contract and I would guess that he'll receive another. While the Royals don't expect any on-field success right now, the onus is on Yost to ensure that Kansas City's wealth of young prospects continue to develop. Yost will return as K.C.'s manager in 2013 unless the Royals heavily regress from their 71-91 record of last year, or (even worse) the likes of Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy hit a snag in their Major League seasoning.
Rockies: Colorado's disappointing 2011 campaign puts the pressure on manager Jim Tracy, who is entering the final year of his original three-year pact with the team. GM Dan O'Dowd recently told Troy Renck of the Denver Post that he doesn't foresee any problems with Tracy working as a lame duck. "Jim is signed through next year and we'd love to have him be manager here for much longer than that," O'Dowd said.
Reds: Dusty Baker signed a two-year extension with the Reds last October. If Cincinnati takes the unlikely step of trading Joey Votto and starting a mini-rebuilding phase, Baker may not want to stick around while the club builds itself back into a contender. A Votto deal is a long shot (at least in the short term), however, so barring a poor season for the Reds in 2012, the team will probably pursue another extension with Baker next winter.
Rays: Because Andrew Friedman works without an official contract, his name was already linked to the GM's openings with the Cubs and Astros earlier this year. Friedman has said he enjoys the challenge of working in Tampa Bay and it would be odd for him to walk away given that the Rays are contenders now and for the foreseeable future given their deep minor league system. Manager Joe Maddon is similarly very likely to stay, even though his three-year contract runs out after next season. Tampa Bay's shaky financial situation makes Maddon's status a very minor question mark, but one would think the Rays will do everything in their power to keep Maddon, especially since owner Stu Sternberg said he expects Maddon to manage the team beyond 2012.
Rangers: Ron Washington signed a two-year extension through 2012 in the wake of the Rangers' AL pennant last season. With Texas on the verge of another World Series appearance, Washington looks to be in line for another new deal.
Indians: GM Chris Antonetti's original five-year contract is up after 2012 and the Indians' progress would indicate that the club will pursue an extension. The Tribe picked up Manny Acta's 2013 option last month.
Giants: Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy both had their options for 2012 picked up last February, an expected move given San Francisco's 2010 World Series title. That championship also probably ensures both men will receive extensions at some point over the next year since incoming team CEO Laurence Baer has stated that he wants Sabean and Bochy to stay. Unless the Giants have a disastrous 2012 campaign, expect Sabean and Bochy to be in San Francisco for years to come.
Dodgers: Ned Colletti can either activate an out clause in his contract after 2012, or 2012 is actually the last year on his deal. Either way, the general manager will likely be pursued by the club to sign an extension given how competitive the Dodgers were this season in the wake of the ongoing ownership mess. Of course, Colletti could choose to leave given the uncertainty with the McCourts. Chicago native Colletti drew some attention from the Cubs last summer, before the Theo Epstein hiring.
Diamondbacks: 2012 is the last guaranteed year for both Kevin Towers and Kirk Gibson, though Towers had club options for 2013-14 and 2015-16, and Gibson has a club option for 2013. Neither man is going anywhere in the wake of Arizona's surprise run to the NL West crown.
Cubs: Mike Quade is signed through 2012 with a club option for 2013. Rumors are already swirling that Ryne Sandberg could be hired as the Cubs' new manager once Theo Epstein takes over, so Quade could be out of a job once the Epstein era officially begins in Chicago.
Cardinals: Tony La Russa and the Cards have a mutual option for 2012 and the latest indication is that La Russa wishes to return for another season. The manager could have a change of heart should Albert Pujols leave for free agency, though La Russa's return could provide some incentive for Pujols to also stay in St. Louis. It's also worth noting that La Russa is just 35 wins behind John McGraw for second place on the list of all-time regular season managerial wins.
Brewers: Doug Melvin's contract expires after 2012 and given Milwaukee's success this season, he seems like a sure bet to receive an extension. It will be interesting to see how long a Melvin extension would run; ownership may not want to commit to Melvin for more than three years just to see how he operates in a post-Prince Fielder environment in Milwaukee. Ron Roenicke is also technically out of contract after next year, but the Brewers hold a club option on the manager for 2013 that is very likely to be exercised. A new multiyear deal for Roenicke is also not out of the question.
Astros: General manager Ed Wade's deal is up after 2012 but his tenure in Houston could finish early once the sale of the team to Jim Crane is finalized. A new GM could also spell the end of Brad Mills as the manager, who is contracted through 2012 with a club option for 2013. While Mills did lead the Astros to the worst record (56-106) in franchise history last season, he didn't have much talent to work with on the Houston roster.
Orioles GM Links: Dipoto, Reagins, Levine, Ricciardi
Here's the latest from Baltimore as the O's look to replace Andy MacPhail…
- The Diamondbacks have given permission for the Orioles to interview Jerry Dipoto, reports Scott Miller of CBSSports.com. Dipoto is Arizona's senior VP of scouting and player development and served as the club's interim GM after Josh Byrnes was fired midway through the 2010 season.
- Dipoto's interview should come this weekend, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The Orioles also hope to speak to Al Avila (Tigers), Dan Jennings (Marlins), Tony LaCava (Blue Jays), De Jon Watson and Logan White (both Dodgers), all of whom have been mentioned in connection to the Baltimore job. Avila could be passed over since "the Orioles want to wrap up this process as soon as possible" and can't wait until the Tigers finish their playoff run.
- Two names that will apparently not be part of the process, according to Kubatko, are former Angels GM Tony Reagins and Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine. Both men could still resurface as candidates, Kubatko notes. Given that Texas is still alive in the postseason, Levine could be facing the same issue as Avila.
- J.P. Ricciardi is on the "short list of decision-makers" that the Orioles are considering, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. Since the O's are just starting their search, Olney says it's too early to say if Ricciardi or any others on the short list are favorites for the job. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports (via Twitter) that the Mets haven't received requests from any team to interview Ricciardi or Paul DePodesta about a general managing job.
- No surprise here, but Olney says "it's pretty clear that Buck Showalter will have extensive influence in the selection of the Orioles' GM."
Manager/GM Notes: Epstein, Sandberg, Cashman
The Cubs are on the brink of completing a deal with the GM Theo Epstein and the Red Sox. Here are the details and more managerial and GM notes from around MLB…
- MLB.com's Carrie Muskat hears that chairman Tom Ricketts is handling compensation discussions for the Cubs. However, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that assistant GMs Ben Cherington and Randy Bush will do most of the negotiating with upper management signing off on the expected agreement.
- John Dennis of WEEI hears that the Red Sox and Cubs won't start talks about compensation for Epstein until today (link via Rob Bradford of WEEI.com).
- Epstein will earn $3MM or more on his new deal with the Cubs, but it still falls short of what Tigers president and GM Dave Dombrowski earns, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (Twitter links). Heyman noted earlier this week that Dombrowski, one of baseball's longest-tenured GMs, earns about $5MM.
- Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times hears that the Cubs expect a reconciliation with Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg this week. Epstein interviewed Sandberg for Boston's Triple-A managerial position last offseason, but Sandberg turned the job down to manage in the Phillies' system. Cubs manager Mike Quade is under contract through 2012.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post explains the challenges GMs face in Boston and New York. One MLB executive is amazed that Yankees GM Brian Cashman has continued to do his job under such intense pressure for more than a decade.
Magglio Ordonez Wants To Continue Playing
Outfielder Magglio Ordonez is said to want to keep playing, despite the re-break of his ankle, according to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated (via Twitter). The veteran re-fractured his ankle on Saturday.
Earlier this month, Ordonez admitted that he nearly retired mid-season due to lingering issues in his surgically-repaired right ankle. The slugger will turn 38 in January and will be eligible for free agency this winter. He earned $10MM in 2011 but should see a significant pay cut if he decides to return in 2012.
Quick Hits: Angels, Astros, Bartlett, Konerko
The Tigers defeated the Rangers tonight and they now trail two games to one in the ALCS. Detroit could even the series at two games if they win at home tomorrow afternoon. Here are today's links…
- The Angels have D'Backs exec Jerry Dipoto and Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer on their list of GM candidates, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (Twitter link). We recently introduced Dipoto and Oppenheimer as part of our GM Candidates series.
- Astros owner Drayton McLane told Stephen Goff of the Houston Astros Examiner that he'll complete the ownership transfer to Jim Crane, though it could take three or four weeks (all Twitter links).
- The Astros announced that they have agreed to one-year deals with hitting coach Mike Barnett and pitching coach Doug Brocail.
- MLBTR's Tim Dierkes learned that Jason Bartlett's $5.5MM club option for 2013 vests if he picks up 432 plate appearances in '12 (Twitter link). That would give the Padres infielder 1050 trips to the plate in 2011-12.
- White Sox GM Kenny Williams admitted to reporters that he considered Paul Konerko as a possible player-manager before hiring rookie skipper Robin Ventura. "He would probably drive himself nuts right now playing and managing at the same time," Williams said, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.
- Nolan Ryan wouldn't predict the Rangers' chances of re-signing C.J. Wilson, according to Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com. Ryan says the Rangers will start negotiating with Wilson's agent once their season ends.
- Joel Zumaya told reporters, including Jason Beck of MLB.com, that he'd like to re-sign with the Tigers after the season. The hard-throwing right-hander didn't pitch this year because of elbow soreness and has started throwing again.
- As J.J. Cooper of Baseball America explains, young players are being squeezed out of independent baseball. But some, such as Marshall Schuler of the Frontier League, could become options for MLB teams.