Phillies To Acquire Michael Lorenzen
The Phillies are reportedly acquiring Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers. Infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee is headed back to Detroit.
Lorenzen has seemed a near-lock to be traded for a few months. The right-hander has found plenty of success in his second season since moving back to the rotation. After posting a 4.24 ERA through 18 appearances for the Angels last year, he’s allowing 3.58 earned runs per nine in as many outings this time around.
Signed to a one-year, $8.5MM free agent deal last winter, Lorenzen began his Detroit tenure on the injured list. A groin strain cost him the first two weeks of the season, but he was on the Comerica Park mound by mid-April. He was hit hard in two of his first three outings but settled in nicely thereafter.
Lorenzen has worked 105 2/3 innings, just under six frames per start. He’s not blowing hitters away; his 19.9% strikeout rate and 9.8% swinging strike percentage are each a little lower than the respective MLB averages. Lorenzen has shown much improved control, though, keeping his walk rate at a modest 6.5% clip after handing out free passes north of 10% of the time in each of the previous three seasons.
All told, Lorenzen has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 18 outings. He secured his first All-Star nod as a result. He’s been effective against hitters of either handedness, holding lefties to a .201/.279/.355 line and right-handers to a .274/.293/.381 slash. He’s mixing four pitchers (four-seam, slider, changeup and sinker) with regularity.
The middling whiff rates lead ERA estimators to suggest that Lorenzen’s 3.58 ERA isn’t quite warranted. Opponents have a modest .264 average on balls in play against him, the 10th lowest mark among starters with 100+ innings. Yet even if a few more batted balls drop in and his ERA ticks up around 4.00 (where estimators generally peg him), he’d be a valuable pickup for a club seeking pitching depth.
Philadelphia has a starting five of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez. They’ll run with a six-man rotation over the next two weeks, tweets Jayson Stark of the Athletic. The club doesn’t have an off day until August 14, so they’ll take the opportunity to give the entire group some extra rest.
At that point, the Phils will likely decide whether to kick one of Lorenzen or Sánchez to relief. The latter has stepped up to solidify an uncertain fifth starter spot over the past month. He’s worked to a 2.66 ERA with average or better strikeout, walk and ground-ball marks over nine starts. The depth behind him wasn’t particularly strong, though. Bailey Falter struggled mightily early in the year. Andrew Painter underwent elbow surgery. The Phils have been reluctant to push minor league righties Mick Abel and Griff McGarry into a pennant race too quickly.
As a result, they’ll beat the market for one of the top rental starters still available. Lorenzen is due around $2.79MM in salary through season’s end. The Phils have already exceeded the second tier of luxury tax penalization. They’re going to surpass the CBT for the second straight season. As a result, they’re taxed at a 42% rate on additional spending up to the $273MM third threshold. Roster Resource calculates their current CBT number just above $262MM.
They’ll pay around $1.17MM in taxes to accommodate Lorenzen, bringing their expenditure to around $3.97MM. Lorenzen would also tack on $250K in performance bonus (also taxed at a 42% rate) for reaching 125, 150 and 175 innings (with further incentives available but likely unattainable). Lorenzen will head back to free agency at year’s end, when the Phils will hopefully feel more comfortable breaking Abel and McGarry into MLB action.
As for the Tigers, their signing of Lorenzen worked out as intended. Rebuilding teams take one-year fliers on veterans of this ilk every offseason with an eye towards a midseason trade. Rarely does it work out as effectively as it did for Detroit. Lorenzen was always an unlikely qualifying offer candidate, so they’ll indeed flip him for a prospect of interest.
Lee, 20, is a right-handed hitting second baseman from Taiwan. He has been at High-A Jersey Shore, hitting .283/.372/.401 through 285 plate appearances. Lee is walking at a quality 10.2% clip against a modest 18.6% strikeout rate. He’s only hit five home runs but has stolen 14 bases in 17 tries.
He recently ranked eighth on Baseball America’s ranking of the Phillies’ farm system. As his slash line suggests, BA’s report indicates he’s a hit-over-power player with a shot to stick in the middle infield. Below-average arm strength and range make him a best fit for second base. While the hit-focused second baseman is a tough profile to pull off, Lee’s minor league production is solid. He won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until after the 2025 season.
Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the Tigers and Phillies were nearing a deal that’d send Lorenzen to Philadelphia while getting Lee back as part of the return. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reported the deal was agreed upon and would be a one-for-one swap.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Diamondbacks, Tigers Have Discussed Michael Lorenzen
The Diamondbacks are among the clubs that have contacted the Tigers regarding Michael Lorenzen, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). The Orioles, Astros, Marlins and Rays have all previously been linked to the Detroit righty — although Tampa Bay has since acquired Aaron Civale to fill their rotation.
Lorenzen is very likely to land somewhere else within the next four hours. He’s an impending free agent on a non-competitive Detroit team who wouldn’t likely receive a qualifying offer. Lorenzen carries a 3.58 ERA across 18 starts. His 19.9% strikeout rate is a touch below average but he’s working with the best control of his career. Lorenzen had been particularly good of late, rattling off three straight scoreless starts before allowing three runs over five innings in his most recent appearance.
Just as he’s a very likely trade candidate, the D-Backs are an obvious fit as a possible suitor. They’re openly pursuing rotation help behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. As an impending free agent, Lorenzen wouldn’t have a major acquisition cost. The Snakes have some talented controllable starters who’ve yet to put things together this season but could be options to take rotation spots next year if Lorenzen signs elsewhere in free agency.
The first-time All-Star is playing this season on an $8.5MM salary. He’s due around $2.79MM through year’s end. That’s a reasonable sum for a mid-rotation starter, particularly for an Arizona club that is tied for the last playoff spot in the National League.
Dodgers “In Hot Pursuit” Of Eduardo Rodriguez; Padres Interested
With less than seven hours to go until the trade deadline, the Tigers hold a pair of key starting pitcher cards in southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez and righty Michael Lorenzen. Yesterday morning, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale said the pair would “definitely” be traded, and this morning MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand said the Tigers are “expected to trade” both.
Asking prices appear to be high, according to Feinsand, though we rarely hear asking prices described any other way. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says the same, after talking to rival executives.
The Dodgers “are in hot pursuit” of Rodriguez, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Jack Harris of the L.A. Times spoke to “multiple people with knowledge of the team’s thinking unauthorized to speak publicly,” and then wrote yesterday that the club’s Plan B after Justin Verlander “could be” a pursuit of Rodriguez. Harris said the Dodgers “had maintained interest” in E-Rod as of Monday afternoon. The Dodgers added Lance Lynn to their embattled rotation in a trade with the White Sox a few days ago.
Never a team to sit on the sidelines with good players available – even five games out of the wild card – the Padres are “said to be high” on Rodriguez and “could make a push” for him, reports Feinsand. The Padres seem to have some level of interest in Verlander as well, according to Heyman.
Rodriguez, 30, owns a 2.95 ERA on the season with a 25.9 K%, 6.0 BB%, and 40.5% groundball rate. He missed all of June with a left index finger pulley rupture. He’s pitched to an unpleasant 5.66 ERA in four starts since returning from the injury, but his peripheral stats were in line with his season marks and two of the four starts were solid. Though Rodriguez is scheduled to take on the Pirates tomorrow at PNC Park, he may have already made his last start in a Tigers uniform.
Rodriguez is owed about $4.67MM this year and $49MM from 2024-26, but he’s generally viewed as a rental given the likelihood he opts out of those final three years after the season. While all opt-out clauses represent downside risk for an acquiring team, things would have to go quite badly for E-Rod in the next two months for him to forgo the clause.
The Orioles, who traded Rodriguez to the Red Sox in a significant deadline deal for Andrew Miller nine years ago, are a potential suitor for both Tigers starters. Last week, Feinsand named a slew of teams that had been scouting Rodriguez. Some have since acquired a starting pitcher, but others included the Reds, Phillies, and Diamondbacks. On the topic of the Reds, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic wrote of “whispers Monday” about Cincinnati “being a suitable destination for Rodriguez.”
Lorenzen, 31, is a pure rental with about $2.8MM left on his contract, plus possible $250K performance bonuses for innings benchmarks. Lorenzen represented the Tigers in the All-Star game, though he’s never been a strikeout pitcher. He has seemingly turned a corner with some of the best control of his career, though his peripheral stats generally don’t support a 3.58 ERA. Lorenzen has a 3.96 mark over his last nine starts, and something in that range would likely match a buyer’s expectations. The Marlins, Orioles, Astros, and Rays have been linked to Lorenzen, but the Rays have since added Aaron Civale.
Marlins Interested In Michael Lorenzen
With at least three teams already known to be interested in Tigers right-hander Michael Lorenzen, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports a fourth, noting that the Marlins are also in the mix. This tracks with yesterday’s report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that Miami is on the lookout for starting pitching help.
The Marlins landed David Robertson from the Mets on Thursday, bolstering the relief corps for what the Fish hope will be a successful playoff run. Miami headed into the All-Star break with a 53-39 record and a solid grip on a wild card berth, yet an eight-game losing streak after the break undid a lot of that success. Now 56-48 after last night’s win over the Tigers, the Marlins are tied with the Giants for the last NL wild card slot, just a half-game behind the Phillies and Reds and a game up on the Diamondbacks.
While facing Detroit for this three-game series, the Marlins might also come away with one of their best starters. Lorenzen has a 3.58 ERA over 105 2/3 innings this season, aided by a solid 6.5% walk rate and a fastball with outstanding spin rate, if relatively average in velocity (94.3mph). Lorenzen’s .264 BABIP and his below-average 19.9% strikeout rate are factors in his higher 4.45 SIERA, but it is worth noting that he has been particularly sharp over his last four starts. The righty has a 1.14 ERA over 23 2/3 innings during those four outings, putting on a nice showcase for rival scouts.
A four-game losing streak has all but erased whatever small hope the Tigers have of making a late run in the AL Central, as Detroit is now 46-58 and 7.5 games out of first place. Besides Lorenzen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chasen Shreve, and Jose Cisnero have also been targets for other teams, and all four of these players will be free agents after the season (Rodriguez has an opt-out clause in his contract that he is expected to exercise).
Between Lorenzen’s rental status and the relatively inexpensive $3MM still owed to him in 2023 salary, he makes an attractive pickup option for just about any contender, particularly a Marlins team that is willing to spend but probably unlikely to truly splurge. Miami took on approximately $3.55MM in Robertson’s remaining salary, but the team’s overall payroll still sits below the $106.5MM threshold.
Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham
The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario. Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.
Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar. According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.
One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline. L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency. Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.
Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere. With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.
Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored. In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal. Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.
Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option. Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal. An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking. If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.
Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers. The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026. Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal. While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.
“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move. The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA. It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season. The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.
Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.
Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.” Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past. The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Angels Are All In, Lucas Giolito and Picking a Lane
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:
- Angels are in: They take Shohei Ohtani off the market, trade for Lucas Giolito (1:10)
- Several teams still in the mushy middle: Cubs, Yankees, Diamondbacks (10:15)
- Reds reportedly willing to trade Jonathan India, or are they? (17:10)
- What are the Padres doing with Blake Snell and Josh Hader? (21:45)
Plus, we answer your questions, including:
- Do you see the Marlins being sellers or buyers? (23:25)
- Who are the Phillies targeting and who would they give up prior to the deadline? (26:35)
- Who do the Tigers end up trading? And what can we expect in return? (28:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- All Eyes on the Angels, Cardinals Trade Options and Buyers or Sellers – listen here
- Top Deadline Trade Candidates, Ohtani Trade Potential and the Slipping Rays – listen here
- Free Agent Power Rankings and Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers – listen here
Orioles Interested In Michael Lorenzen
The Orioles are among the teams eyeing Tigers’ starter Michael Lorenzen, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). They join the Astros and Rays as clubs reportedly in the mix for the Detroit righty.
Just as Lorenzen is a sensible target for Houston and Tampa Bay, the fit for Baltimore is straightforward. Lorenzen seems highly likely to move before next Tuesday’s deadline. He’s an impending free agent on a Detroit club that fell 11 games below .500 upon getting swept in a doubleheader against the Angels today.
The first-time All-Star is having arguably the best season of his career. It’s his second straight season as a full-time starter. After posting league average numbers in 18 starts for the Angels last year, the 31-year-old has been a mid-rotation caliber arm this season. Even following a five-inning, three-run performance against the Halos this afternoon, he carries a 3.58 ERA across 105 2/3 frames.
Lorenzen’s underlying marks aren’t quite that strong, largely because he’s not missing a ton of bats. His 19.9% strikeout rate is a couple points below league average, while his 42.5% grounder percentage is right around par. The nine-year MLB veteran has walked only 6.5% of opponents, though, a notable improvement on last year’s 10.7% figure. He’s mixing five pitches with some amount of regularity and hasn’t had any platoon concerns.
That production makes him a logical target for win-now teams seeking rotation help. The Orioles certainly qualify. Baltimore has the best record in the American League at 62-40. They’re up a game and a half (three in the loss column) on Tampa Bay for the AL East lead. The rebuild is over, and while there’s still some question about how aggressively the O’s will push chips in, they could make a competitive offer for Lorenzen without subtracting from the top of the farm system.
Detroit signed Lorenzen to an $8.5MM free agent deal. Just over $3MM of that salary is yet to be paid out. Lorenzen has already locked in an extra $250K in incentives by passing the 100-inning mark and would earn a matching amount at 125, 150, 175, 195 and 205 frames.
That’s a modest price to pay for a mid-rotation arm who’d likely step into the projected playoff rotation. Baltimore’s starting staff is its relative weak point. The O’s have an excellent offense and elite relief corps but rank 17th in MLB with a 4.52 rotation ERA.
Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells each have a sub-4.00 mark with slightly above-average strikeout/walk profiles. Kyle Gibson has offered his typically steady back-of-the-rotation innings. Dean Kremer has been a bit homer-prone en route to a fine but unexciting 4.59 ERA in 21 starts. Offseason trade pickup Cole Irvin has struggled and bounced in and out of the rotation, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez has an ERA pushing 7.00 through his first 12 big league outings.
Eduardo Rodriguez Drawing Widespread Trade Interest
With the trade deadline now just a few days away, Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez is drawing plenty of trade interest. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that scouts from several rival clubs having been keeping an eye on him, with the Rangers, Rays, Reds, Phillies and Diamondbacks among those keeping tabs.
It’s unsurprising that Rodriguez, 30, is garnering attention around the league. He’s been a solid major league starter for many years and is having arguably his best season to date. Coming into this year, he had thrown 947 2/3 innings with a 4.15 earned run average, striking out 23.9% of batters faced while walking 8.1% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 41.2% clip. Here in 2023, he has a 2.95 ERA, nudging his strikeout rate to 25.9% and lowering his walk rate to 6%, that latter number being a career best by a full point.
Those numbers would fit great in just about every rotation around the league. What makes his situation unique is his contract. He’s not a rental in a strict sense but will be treated similarly to one. The Tigers signed him to a five-year, $77MM deal going into 2022, but that deal gave him the ability to opt out after the second year. That opt-out opportunity is now just a few months away, when he will have to decide between hanging onto the three years and $49MM left on his contract versus returning to the open market.
The last time he was a free agent, he was coming off a season in which he had a 4.74 ERA and had rejected a qualifying offer. This time, it seems like he will have the ability to return to free agency with a stronger platform year and no QO attached, since players aren’t allowed to receive more than one in their careers. He will be two years older and the underlying numbers of his 2021 season were still strong, but all the factors taken into consideration would seem to point to him having a strong shot of getting past that $49MM guarantee in free agency. The most recent offseason saw mid-rotation pitchers like Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon get between $63MM and $72MM, with Rodriguez having an argument for being in that range as well.
With that being the case, it makes sense for the Tigers to consider moving him for talent that can help them in future seasons. Their record is currently 46-55, which only puts them 6.5 games off the lead in the weak AL Central, but FanGraphs only gives them a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs with Baseball Prospectus at 0.3%.
The tricky thing is that, unlike other rental players, there’s more downside for the acquiring club. Although Rodriguez is trending towards opting out, there’s a chance he could experience a downturn in results or suffer an injury that causes him to take the bird in the hand. That’s something that other clubs would have to take into consideration when discussing deals, and it’s possible the Tigers get a lesser return than if Rodriguez were simply in the final year of his contract. The injury question mark is always a factor with pitchers and certainly with Rodriguez, who has only once topped 160 innings in a season.
Complications aside, each of the listed clubs would surely love to have Rodriguez in their rotation for the stretch run. The Rangers have lost Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi to season-ending injuries, which has put a couple of dents in their depth. Dane Dunning has stepped up and has an ERA of 3.18 this year, but a 15.4% strikeout rate that casts some doubt on its sustainability. Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney are each having lackluster seasons as well, with their respective ERAs hovering just under 5.00. They are still leading the AL West but the Astros are only two games back, with the Angels also aggressively making a push. They’ve already been connected to starters, with reported interest in Lance Lynn of the White Sox.
The Rays have some strong elements to their rotation with Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley and Zach Eflin in four spots, but Eflin has dealt with persistent knee issues in his career and underwent an MRI on his left knee yesterday. It’s unclear if that will be a serious problem, but they are already without Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for the rest of the season, with Josh Fleming on the 60-day IL as well. Like the Rangers, they’ve also been connected to Lynn in their pursuit of more starting pitching. They have slipped behind Baltimore in the East but still hold the top Wild Card spot in the American League.
The Reds have known for some time to be in the market for pitching, which makes plenty of sense. They were hoping to have their rotation fronted by Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo but both have been on the IL for a while now with at least a few more weeks until their expected returns. Other starters like Justin Dunn and Connor Overton are on the IL with them. Luke Weaver is still clinging to a rotation spot despite his 7.20 ERA on the year, leaving plenty of room for an upgrade. They are currently holding a Wild Card spot and are just a game and a half behind the Brewers in the Central division.
The Phillies have a solid group of five in Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, but their depth has been weakened by the Tommy John surgery of Andrew Painter and the struggles of Bailey Falter. The only member of their current rotation than can be optioned is Sanchez, who has a 2.98 ERA but a 4.06 FIP. But perhaps someone could wind up in the bullpen or they simply use a six-man rotation for a while. They currently hold one of the Wild Card spots in the tight NL race.
The Diamondbacks have a top-heavy rotation with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly at the front. Brandon Pfaadt was one of the top pitching prospects in the league coming into the year but has an 8.81 ERA through his first seven starts. Tommy Henry has a 4.01 ERA but with uninspiring peripherals and a 5.14 FIP. Ryne Nelson’s ERA is is 4.97. General manager Mike Hazen has already admitted the club will pursue pitching upgrades. It remains to be seen how aggressive they will be since they’ve been struggling lately, but they are still just half a game out of the playoff picture.
Tigers’ Jose Cisnero, Chasen Shreve Garnering Trade Interest
Tigers relievers Alex Lange and Jason Foley are the club’s most valuable trade chips in the bullpen, but veterans Jose Cisnero and Chasen Shreve are drawing interest as well, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Both are free agents at season’s end, giving both a good chance to be moved by next Tuesday’s deadline.
Cisnero, a 34-year-old righty, has pitched to a 3.96 ERA in 38 1/3 innings this season and carries a 3.19 ERA in 155 frames dating back to the 2020 season. He’s averaging 96.1 mph on his heater, striking out 25.7% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate, and inducing grounders at a health 45.2% clip in 2023. He’s earning $2,287,500 this season.
Shreve, who turned 33 earlier this month, is sporting a less-appealing 4.82 ERA but has a more appetizing secondary profile. He’s punching out a strong 24.2% of his opponents against a 6.8% walk rate, sports a nice 12.9% swinging-strike rate and has kept the ball on the ground at a 47.7% clip. Fielding-independent metrics (3.89 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA) feel he’s performed far better than that ERA would suggest. Notably, five of the 20 runs Shreve has allowed this year came in one nightmare outing; he has a 3.67 ERA and 31-to-7 K/BB ratio in 27 innings since.
Originally signed to a minor league deal, Shreve is earning a $1.25MM base salary in Detroit, though his contract was an incentive-laden deal and he’s already begun to tap into those bonuses. He’s already triggered a trio of $75K bonuses for reaching 20, 30 and 35 innings pitched, and he’ll unlock another $75K bonus when he hits 40 innings. Shreve’s contract also pays him $100K at 45 and 50 innings and $125K innings at both 55 and 60 innings.
Neither reliever figures to draw a substantial haul of talent on his own, but the 46-55 Tigers figure to be open to dealing either, given their looming free agency. Neither would receive a qualifying offer, and Detroit could use those spots in the bullpen to look at younger arms down the stretch. Speculatively, either could be paired up with one of the Tigers’ other clear-cut trade candidates — Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Lorenzen — to enhance the return.
McCosky writes that Cisnero and Shreve have thus far generated more trade interest than either Lange or Foley, though that’s surely just due to likely asking price on the latter duo. Both Lange and Foley are under Tigers control through the 2027 season, and while neither can be entirely ruled out as a trade candidate, that remaining club control will naturally lead to a much higher asking price. Be that as it may, ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that some clubs could eventually turn to names like Lange and Foley in their quest for bullpen upgrades, given the underwhelming slate of names on this summer’s rental market.
AL Central Notes: Lynn, Guardians, Twins, Turnbull
The two-year, $38MM extension that Lance Lynn signed with the White Sox in July 2021 also contained some partial no-trade protection, allowing Lynn to block deals to 10 teams per year. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the 10 clubs on Lynn’s no-trade list are the Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, Mets, Angels, Mariners, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays. Several of those teams are known be looking for pitching as the deadline approaches, though of Lynn’s 10 listed clubs, only Tampa Bay has been linked to the veteran right-hander to date.
This no-trade clause might not be much of an obstacle, as Rosenthal figures that Lynn would welcome the chance to join a contender. There is also an $18MM club option on Lynn’s services that figures to be bought out (for $1MM) by the Sox or a new team, considering that Lynn has struggled to a 6.18 ERA over 115 innings this season. Though home runs have been Lynn’s biggest issue, Rosenthal argues that joining a better defensive team would help Lynn’s fortunes, and some of his advanced metrics (like a 3.88 SIERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate) suggest that his ERA isn’t reflective of how well he has pitched in 2023.
More from around the AL Central…
- The Guardians are looking for a starting pitcher and a “complementary bat” at the deadline, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said during a recent edition of The Front Office on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter links). Injuries have thinned out Cleveland’s pitching staff, but offense might still be the bigger need given how inconsistent the Guards’ lineup has been all season. However, Antonetti felt that the Guardians will helped by Bo Naylor getting regular playing time, as well as the revived bats of Josh Bell and Andres Gimenez. “If there’s an opportunity to add another complementary bat that can ideally add some versatility, contribute in the outfield or get some at-bats at DH, that might be a place where we could also look to improve,” Antonetti said.
- Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey shared his own wishlist during his own appearance on the Front Office (Twitter links), as Minnesota is looking at “ways to fortify the middle of” the bullpen, and possibly “more options late in the game.” Falvey also said the Twins would like to add a right-handed hitter to a mostly left-handed lineup, but he praised the contributions of Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer (both righty-swingers) to the roster since Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have “struggled at times.”
- Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told MLB.com’s Jason Beck and other reporters that Spencer Turnbull is lined up for rehab starts on Tuesday and Sunday with the Tigers’ high-A affiliate. Turnbull hasn’t pitched since May 6 due to neck discomfort, so he is already eligible to return from the 60-day injured list whenever he is fully ramped up. It has been another tough setback for Turnbull, who missed some of the 2021 season and all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery.