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Trying To Find Hidden Gems With BB/K

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A few days ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked back on the trade that sent LaMonte Wade Jr. to the Giants. At the time, Wade had a fairly unimpressive track record, but did have a knack for generating walks and limiting strikeouts. Whether that was what piqued the Giants’ interest or not, it worked out for them, as Wade had a nice season in 2021. His strikeout rate shot up, but he still hit 18 home runs and slashed .253/.326/.482, for a wRC+ of 117.

A young hitter’s command of the strike zone can often be a helpful indicator of future success, like it was in Wade’s case. Mookie Betts was never at the top of prospect lists, as he was on Baseball America’s Top 100 only once, coming in at #75 prior to the 2014 season. But looking back on his strikeout and walk rates in the minors, perhaps it should have been more obvious that he was a superstar in the making. At Low-A, A-Ball, High-A and Double-A, he posted a BB/K above 1.00, meaning he walked more than he struck out. At Triple-A in 2014, it was 0.87, still very impressive. Jose Ramirez never appeared on Baseball America’s Top 100, and even just among Cleveland prospects, he peaked at #9 in 2014. He also kept his BB/K rate around 1.00 for most of his time in the minors, and has carried that forward into the majors as well.

That’s not to say that every minor leaguer with a strong BB/K rate will turn into a superstar like Betts or Ramirez. Jace Peterson put up solid BB/K rates as well, but has settled in as an average-ish role player. Austin Barnes also had a keen eye throughout the minors, before becoming a solid second string catcher. But those players can still be plenty useful for a big league club. Can we find the next hidden gem of this type? Let’s sniff around. Here are some standout BB/K numbers from the minors in 2021.

Alejo Lopez, infielder, Reds, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.41

A 27th round selection of the Reds in 2015, Lopez had never appeared on the club’s top 30 prospects list at Baseball America prior to this season. (He would eventually crack the midseason rankings, coming in at #21.) He had posted strong strikeout and walk numbers in rookie ball action in 2016 and 2017, putting up a BB/K above 1.00 in each year. In 2018 and 2019, he played in A-ball and High-A, with his BB/K slipping to around 0.50 in each year. After the pandemic canceled the minor leagues in 2020, Lopez hit the ground running in 2021. In 92 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .320/.401/.447, with a walk rate of 11% and strikeout rate of just 7.8%, leading to a huge BB/K of 1.41. He got called up for his MLB debut and didn’t hit much, but in a tiny sample size of 23 plate appearances. He’ll turn 26 in May.

Isaac Paredes, infielder, Tigers, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.19.

In 2018, Paredes reached Double-A for the first time and put up a BB/K rate of 0.86 in just 39 games. In 2019, he returned to Double-A and played in 127 games, improving his rate to 0.93. In 2020, the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues, but Paredes made his big league debut. The transition to MLB wasn’t terribly smooth as he hit .220 over 34 games, with a BB/K of just 0.33. In 2021, he spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A, playing 72 games there, hitting .265/.397/.451 while walking in an incredible 17.8% of his plate appearances and striking out just 14.9% of the time, for a BB/K ratio of 1.19. He also got into 23 more MLB games and had a BB/K rate of 0.91 there. Paredes has appeared on the backend of Baseball America’s Top 100, coming in at #94 before the 2019 season and #100 before 2020. He’s still quite young, as he won’t turn 23 until February.

Steven Kwan, outfielder, Guardians, BB/K at Double-A and Triple-A in 2021: 1.16

Kwan was selected by Cleveland in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and got into 17 games that year in the lower levels of their system. In 2019, he played 123 games at High-A, with a BB/K of 1.04. After missing out on 2020 due to the pandemic, he spent 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, playing 77 games in total and logging 341 plate appearances. Overall, he hit .328/.407/.527, along with a walk rate of 10.6% and strikeout rate of 9.1%, winding up with a final BB/K of 1.16. He’s never been on Baseball America’s prospects for Cleveland, though he did just barely crack FanGraphs’ list a year ago, taking the final spot on a list of 49. The Guardians added him to their 40-man roster in November.

Tyler White, infielder, Blue Jays, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.10

A 33rd round draft pick of the Astros in 2013, White has never been viewed as a top prospect. He only appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 Houston Astros’ prospect list once, coming in at #16 back in 2016. But he has always had a good eye for the strike zone. His first crack at Double-A was 59 games in 2015, where his BB/K was 1.20. In 57 games at Triple-A that same year, it was 1.11. He made his MLB debut the following year and appeared in parts of four seasons from 2016 to 2019. He showed some promise with the bat in 2017 and 2018 but floundered in 2019 before joining the SK Wyverns of the KBO for 2020. In 2021, he signed a minors deal with the Blue Jays, playing 105 games and hitting .292/.424/.476. His walk rate was 18.1% and his strikeout rate was 16.5%, for a final BB/K rate of 1.10. Despite that tremendous year at the plate, he never got the call to the big leagues, likely due to his limited positional flexibility. Other than one game at third base, he was exclusively a first baseman or designated hitter in 2021. Now 31, he signed a minor league deal with the Brewers last month.

Cooper Hummel, utility, Brewers/Diamondbacks, BB/K at Triple-A in 2021: 1.03

Hummel was selected by the Brewers in the 16th round of the 2016 draft and never appeared on Baseball America’s top 30 prospects for the club. In 2021, he started the year at Triple-A and got into 46 games for the Nashville Sounds, racking up an incredible BB/K of 1.58. He was flipped to the Diamondbacks as part of the Eduardo Escobar trade and got into 46 more games after that. Although his BB/K was just 0.63 after the trade, he still finished the year at 1.03 overall. Oh, and he hit .353/.429/.575 after the deal. Now 27, the Diamondbacks added Hummel to their 40-man roster in November.

Jonah Bride, utility, Athletics, BB/K at Double-A in 2021: 1.00

Bride was a 23rd round selection of the Athletics in 2018. He hit well in his first couple of minor league seasons, but took a step forward in 2021 in terms of plate discipline. His walk rate and strikeout rate were equal at 17.1%, as he had exactly 57 of each in 334 Double-A plate appearances. He’s never been on Baseball America’s top 30 Oakland prospects, but FanGraphs just placed him 17th in the organization, noting that he recently started an attempt to convert from an infielder into a catcher. He was added to Oakland’s 40-man roster in November.

Tigers First Base Coach Kimera Bartee Passes Away

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The Tigers organization is in mourning today, as they announced the tragic passing of first base coach Kimera Bartee at just 49 years of age.

“All of us in the Tigers baseball family were shocked and saddened to learn that first base coach Kimera Bartee suddenly passed away on Monday at the age of 49,” Tigers general manager Al Avila said in a statement released this morning. “Throughout his time in our organization as both a player and coach, Kimera was known as a kind soul but intense competitor who did his best every day to elevate those around him to do great things. While Tigers fans got used to seeing him in the first base coach’s box, Kimera’s impact on our ballclub went far deeper and will be sorely missed. In speaking with Kimera’s father, Jerry Bartee, we offered our condolences and support to his family. The thoughts and prayers of everyone in the organization are with Kimera’s family and friends, and his memory and spirit will never be forgotten.”

“Like many across baseball, I was devastated by the news of Kimera’s passing,” manager A.J. Hinch said in his own statement. “From the start of spring training last year, it was clear that ’KB’ was the epitome of a player’s coach, having an uncanny ability to build deep connections with anyone from a rookie to a 10-year veteran. I was proud of his selflessness and adaptability when he quickly shifted to the Major League staff last season, and how excited he was about the bright future he had in both baseball and life. The sport has lost an amazing man, but more importantly his family has lost a loving fiancé, father, and son.”

A 14th-round pick of the Orioles back in 1993, Bartee wound up making his Major League debut with the Tigers three years later on the heels of a trade and a selection in the Rule 5 Draft. A center fielder, he spent parts of the next four seasons in Detroit and also made brief big league stops in Cincinnati and Colorado before retiring as a player.

Following his retirement, Bartee worked as a coach and instructor within the Pirates, Phillies and Tigers organizations. He managed in the lower levels of the Pirates’ system and served as a minor league baserunning and outfield coordinator before eventually joining the Major League staff as first base/outfield coach from 2017-19. Bartee worked as an outfield instructor within the Phillies organization in 2020 and joined the Tigers as first base coach in the 2020-21 offseason. He was set to return to Hinch’s coaching staff for a second season in 2022.

We at MLBTR offer heartfelt condolences to Bartee’s loved ones, teammates and the entire Tigers organization.

Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

AL Central Notes: Torkelson, Greene, Barnes, New Zealand, Tito

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Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson and center fielder Riley Greene are universally credited as being in the upper echelon of baseball prospects. In his latest piece for The Athletic, Cody Stavenhagen breaks down the odds of either Detroit player making the team’s Opening Day roster. Detroit officials have been cagey about handing either first round draftee a starting job, owing to recent injury concerns and asterisks next to both players’ dominant minor league campaigns (Torkelson, owner of .935 OPS last season, has seen his batting average drop with each minor league promotion; Greene, owner of a .921 OPS, struck out 153 times in 124 games). Asterisks aside, both players are clearly primed for Major League action soon, even if some extra seasoning is required before they assume their natural positions at the big league level. The possibility remains that Opening Day is pushed back while the minor league season starts as scheduled, giving top young talent a chance to refine their approaches in the minors and make the Opening Day team.

Some other notes from the AL Central…

  • One of Detroit’s less heralded minor league talents also has reason to believe he’ll be making an impact on the Tigers roster this year. Reliever Jacob Barnes, who signed a pre-lockout minors pact with the team, recently discussed with Evan Petzold of The Detroit Press why he eschewed offers from over a dozen other teams to sign with Detroit. Barnes believes the Tigers coaching staff can help him refine a pitch arsenal that has become inconsistent in the wake of injuries in recent seasons. With a fastball that can once again hit 98mph, the hope for both player and team is that Barnes can build on the form that led to droves of strikeouts and groundballs in his first three seasons as a Brewer.
  • One last Tigers note, of less prudence but more international intrigue than the others. Per MLB.com’s transaction page, the Tigers have signed 18-year-old Clayton Campbell out of New Zealand to a minor league deal. The young prospect is viewed as third baseman at this point, though he also has catching and pitching experience. As an international free agent, Campbell was exempt from any restrictions that would prevent a team from signing him to a minor league deal during the lockout. He’ll look to work his way through the Tigers’ minor league system and become the first New Zealand native to reach the Major Leagues.
  • ESPN’s Buster Olney has a piece of good news for Guardians fans, reporting that manager Terry Francona remains on track to return in good health next season. After a number of health woes the past few seasons, it certainly registers as a positive development to hear Francona is on the upswing. Cleveland brass, fans, and rivals alike know firsthand how impactful the 2-time World Series winner can be from the dugout, as he’s guided his club to a strong 753-601 record during his 9-year Cleveland tenure.

Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market

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Carlos Correa entered the offseason as the top name on most free-agent rankings — including here at MLBTR — and remains unsigned as MLB and the MLBPA navigate a lockout that certainly doesn’t look anywhere near a resolution. There’s been plenty of discussion and speculation as to where he’ll ultimately land, but ESPN’s Buster Olney sheds some light on interest that Correa has already received, reporting that the Tigers put forth a 10-year, $275MM offer at one point this winter.

Presumably, that offer came before Detroit signed Javier Baez at six years and $140MM, although it’s at least possible to see how Detroit could make room for both players on the roster and payroll alike. It’s a notable offer, to be sure, but it’s also $66MM shy of what Francisco Lindor received from the Mets, $50MM shy of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers and a ways south of the range many pundits projected heading into free agency.

The reported Detroit offer also further underlines that the Astros’ recent offers to Correa are well shy of meeting the mark. Houston was said to have put forth an offer of five years and $160MM just prior to free agency, but that seemed like a nonstarter from the jump. Olney writes that Astros owner Jim Crane has told colleagues that he won’t make an offer of more than six years in length, which only reinforces the expectation that Correa is likely to sign with a new team for the 2022 season.

Of course, the burning question for most MLB fans and onlookers is a simple one: “where?” The Rangers nabbing a pair of high-end shortstops (Seager and Marcus Semien), on the surface, should have strengthened Correa’s market. Two of his top competitors signing with the same team should have kept another spot open elsewhere. However, the Tigers have signed Baez to that aforementioned six-year deal, and the Yankees — at least according to multiple pre-lockout reports — weren’t interested in the top-of-the-market shortstops, instead preferring shorter-term options to serve as a bridge to prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza.

It remains plausible that the Yankees and several other big-market teams will more aggressively jump into the market post-lockout, once a (presumably) new luxury-tax threshold is set in stone. Olney hears from some agents who believe the Yankees and Dodgers could engage in the market for stars like Correa or Trevor Story once the forthcoming luxury tax structure is known. Those players’ representatives are surely hoping that will be the case, although even if the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. choose to eschew a mega-deal, that shouldn’t necessarily leave Correa out in the cold.

Houston’s interest will remain in place, barring a signing of Story or the acquisition of another notable infielder. Mark Berman of Fox 26 reported earlier this month that each of the Red Sox, Cubs and Braves have also been in contact with Correa’s representatives at some point during the offseason. When those clubs reached out and the extent of each respective team’s interest isn’t clear, but it stands to reason at least some of that group will reengage with Correa’s reps whenever the transaction freeze ends.

That’s a nice “safety net” (for lack of a better term), and as the Braves’ and Cubs’ reported interest reflects, unexpected suitors tend to emerge for players at the top of the market. Few gave the Padres legitimate consideration when Manny Machado hit the market following the 2018 season, for instance. Broadly speaking, the top free agent each winter tends to get paid, particularly when said player is atypically young to reach the market — as is the case with the 27-year-old Correa. It’d be entirely unsurprising for other unexpected teams to join the bidding, viewing Correa as a rather unique opportunity to add an All-Star-caliber player who remains squarely in his prime.

Correa is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, having hit .279/.366/.485 with 26 home runs across 640 plate appearances. That offensive production was 34 points above the league average, by measure of wRC+, and it came over Correa’s biggest workload since 2016. Advanced defensive metrics were also particularly high on his work on the other side of the ball, for which he received his first Gold Glove award en route to a fifth-place finish in AL MVP voting.

Tigers Had Interest In Kevin Gausman

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  • The Tigers had interest in Kevin Gausman before the right-hander signed with the Blue Jays, ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes.  Detroit hadn’t previously been linked to Gausman, though given how aggressively the Tigers courted the pitching market, it isn’t surprising that they checked in on his services as part of their broad search for arms.  That search has already resulted in one major pitching signing, as Detroit signed lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year, $77MM pact.

Andrew Romine Announces Retirement

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Andrew Romine has announced his retirement from baseball with a post on Instagram.

Romine was a fifth round pick out of Arizona State University by the Angels back in 2007.  The 34-year-old infielder played 11 years in the Majors, appearing in 609 big league games for the Angels, Tigers, Mariners, Rangers, and Cubs. His most prolific period came in Detroit, where he was a regular from 2014 to 2017.

Romine wasn’t exactly a thunderbolt at the plate, but he was a capable defender and a plus on the base paths. Defensively, Romine can claim the rare distinction of having literally done it all. He appeared in at least one game at all nine defensive positions, though he was primarily an infielder. He took the mound eight times, and for one third of an inning back in 2017, he even suited up behind the plate for the Tigers.

This past season, Andrew appeared in 26 games, slashing .183/.234/.267 in 64 plate appearances with the Cubs. Never known as a slugger, Romine put his stamp on the season back on August 6th, hitting a 3-run, game-tying home run off Craig Kimbrel in the bottom of the ninth inning. Though the Cubs ultimately lost that game, it was just Kimbrel’s third appearance on the south side and the beginning of a difficult half season with the White Sox. It was just Romine’s 11th career home run across a total 1,391 career plate appearances.

For Romine, the blast was a thrilling moment in an eventful final season in the bigs. Romine got to play alongside his younger brother, Austin Romine, in Chicago. The brothers played alongside one another for the first time in their professional lives.

The MLBTR staff would like to extend a heartfelt congratulations to Andrew for a successful pro career and wish him the best of luck in whatever comes next.

Kyle Keller Signs With Hanshin Tigers

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Former Pirates right-hander Kyle Keller has signed a deal to join the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan, MLBTR has learned. Keller is expected to compete for closer responsibilities with the Tigers.

The 28-year-old Louisiana native spent the 2021 season with the Pirates, logging a career-high 33 1/3 innings over 32 appearances with a 6.48 ERA/6.95 FIP. Keller had previously seen time in the Majors with the Angels in 2020 and the Marlins in 2019.

Keller was originally an 18th round draft choice of the Marlins back in the 2015 draft. After making his Major League debut in 2019 in 10 outings with a 3.38 ERA as a 26-year-old, he was traded the following winter to the Angels for Jose Estrada. The Pirates purchased his contract in April of this past season. After shuttling between the Majors and Triple-A, he was released to free agency in November.

The Hanshin Tigers will give Keller high-leverage opportunities. That might surprise at first blush given his 2021 numbers, but Keller fared much better in Triple-A, where he posted an impressive 1.96 ERA in 18 1/3 innings. Combined, Keller struck out 30.0 percent of opposing batters while walking 11.1 percent of batters, suggesting he certainly has the potential to be a potent arm if he can limit free passes.

Keller combines a 94.5 mph heater with a hook that generated a strong 34.7 percent Whiff rate. He mixes the two offerings fairly evenly to lefties and righties. He has been prone to keeping the ball up in the air, generating just a 29.9 percent groundball rate in his Major League career.

Tigers Sign Jacob Barnes To Minors Contract

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The Tigers have signed right-hander Jacob Barnes to a minor league deal.  The club also announced that Barnes will receive an invitation to the Tigers’ big league Spring Training camp.

Barnes elected free agency in October rather than accept an outright assignment to the Blue Jays’ Triple-A team.  Barnes is in his second year of arbitration eligibility and was projected for a $1.2MM salary, but the Jays’ outright assignment was essentially a non-tender that allowed Barnes to get an early jump on the free agent market.

After posting a 3.54 ERA and 11.6% homer rate over 147 1/3 innings out of the Brewers’ bullpen from 2016-18, Barnes’ numbers began to sail north thanks in large part to an increase in his home run rate.  In 79 1/3 innings since the start of the 2019 season, Barnes has a 6.58 ERA and an 18.8% homer rate, which has caused him to bounce around to five different clubs over that three-season span.

In 2021, the 31-year-old posted a 6.28 ERA over 28 2/3 combined innings with the Mets and Blue Jays in 2021, along with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.  Barnes has continually gotten some strong spin rates on his mid-90s fastball, but apart that four-seamer, he has had trouble finding consistent results with any of the other pitches in his arsenal.

Barnes will get another chance in the Tigers’ camp, as Detroit will likely audition more than a few veteran arms during their spring camp.  The Tigers bullpen wasn’t particularly good in 2021, yet as aggressive as the team has already been with its winter shopping, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them turn their attention to more established relief options now that some of their bigger-ticket additions (Javier Baez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Tucker Barnhart) have been added to the roster.

Tigers Sign Javier Baez

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The Tigers have landed their new franchise shortstop. Detroit announced on Wednesday they’ve signed Javier Baez to a six-year contract. According to reports, it’s a $140MM guarantee for the Wasserman client, who also lands some other perks in the deal. Baez can opt out after the 2023 campaign and has limited no-trade protection that allows him to block a move to 10 teams each year.

Baez’s salaries break down as follows: $20MM in 2022, $22MM in 2023, $25MM each in 2024-25 and $24MM each in 2026-27. He also receives assorted incentives based upon finishes in MVP and other awards’ voting. Baez is guaranteed $42MM over the first two seasons of the slightly backloaded deal. That means he’ll have four years and $98MM in remaining guarantees after the 2023 campaign, when he’ll need to decide on his opt-out possibility.

Javier Baez | Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Shortstop has been a glaring need for the Tigers since the onset of free agency, with general manager Al Avila plainly stating his intentions to improve at the position not long after the season’s conclusion. While many speculated that Carlos Correa, who knows Detroit skipper AJ Hinch quite well from the pair’s time in Houston, would be the likeliest candidate to step into that role, Avila & Co. have preached a more measured approach since the offseason commenced. The Tigers already inked lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year, $77MM contract early in free agency, and adding Baez to the fold would effectively satisfy multiple needs at what figures to be a fair bit less than the cost of Correa on his own.

Detroit shortstops were quite nearly the worst in Major League Baseball from an offensive standpoint in 2021, hitting a combined .201/.275/.321. The resulting 62 wRC+ (i.e. 38 percent worse than league-average production) was the second-lowest mark in the sport, leading only a tanking Pirates club in overall offensive output at the position.

The Tigers have already moved on from their leader in shortstop innings over the past few seasons, bidding adieu to Niko Goodrum after passing him through waivers unclaimed and watching him elect free agency. Baez would represent an across-the-board improvement over Goodrum, providing lights-out, frequently highlight-reel defense in addition to considerable power and baserunning skills for his position.

The 2020 campaign was a season to forget for Baez, but the end result of a roller-coaster 2021 season was a .265/.319/.494 batting line with 31 homers and 18 steals (in 23 tries) for the two-time All-Star and 2018 NL MVP runner-up. Generally speaking, Baez (who’ll turn 29 tomorrow) is a power-hitting but free-swinging shortstop whose penchant for putting the ball over the fence is at least somewhat mitigated by an anemic walk rate that typically lands him near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage. This year’s .319 OBP was actually the second-highest single-season career mark for Baez, who has drawn a free pass in just 4.8% of his 3255 MLB plate appearances.

That said, it’s worth pointing out that there were some positive strides shown by Baez following a trade from the Cubs to the Mets at the July 30 deadline. After whiffing in a whopping 36.3% of his plate appearances in Chicago, Baez cut that figure to a more tolerable (albeit still too lofty) 28.5% in Queens. He also walked at a 7% clip with the Mets — a mark that’s a good bit shy of the 8.8% league average but also well north of 4.7% mark he carried throughout his years with the Cubs. After a rocky run with the Cubs in 2021, Baez finished the season on a heater and posted a composite .299/.371/.515 batting line as a Met.

Inconsistent as Baez may be at the plate, it’s hard to argue with the bottom-line results at the end of the day. Even including 2020’s woeful season, Baez is a .270/.311/.508 hitter (113 wRC+) with 102 home runs over his past 1988 plate appearances, dating back to 2018. He’s one of baseball’s premier defenders — regardless of position.

Since Opening Day 2018, Baez ranks third among all Major League players with 52 Outs Above Average, per Statcast, and his 44 Defensive Runs Saved place him ninth among 4053 defenders who’ve taken the field. While the now-former incumbent Goodrum was a solid defender in hiss own right, Baez is a game-changer with the glove who’ll serve as a pronounced improvement to the Detroit defense.

The Mets were reportedly interested in retaining Baez, who is close friends with New York shortstop Francisco Lindor, but it now seems he’ll instead head to the Motor City and serve as one of the faces of a team looking to emerge from a rebuilding cocoon and announce its return to contention in the American League Central.

Detroit has spent most of the past five years in a prolonged rebuilding effort but has managed to stockpile an enviable farm system that now leaves the team on the precipice of turning the corner. Young starters Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning will be expected to team with Rodriguez in leading the starting staff, while 2020 No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson and 2019 No. 5 overall pick Riley Greene are both viewed as top-10 leaguewide prospects and potential lineup anchors.

That blossoming young core makes it easy for Detroit, a team that has previously trotted out Opening Day payrolls north of $200MM, to spend heavily in free agency this winter. Miguel Cabrera is signed through the 2023 season, but the only player on the books beyond that point is the aforementioned Rodriguez. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a $104MM payroll without Baez next season, and that’s before the likely non-tender of Matthew Boyd and his $7.3MM projected salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

With that in mind, even if this is the last marquee move of the offseason for the Tigers — and, to be clear, there’s no indication that’s the case — the additions of Baez and Rodriguez clearly set the stage for a return to aggressive adding in Detroit. The Tigers will have one more high-end draft pick in 2022, but the goal for the team is clearly to shift into win-now mode, and the additions of both Baez and Rodriguez are notable steps in that direction. Baez has averaged a hefty 4.6 wins above replacement (per Baseball-Reference) per season over the past four years, even including that ugly 2020 campaign, and the Tigers will count on him for more of the same as a linchpin both in the lineup and on defense as they turn the page from a rebuild the fans are all too ready to leave in the rear-view mirror.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the Tigers and Baez were nearing agreement on a six-year contract. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the $140MM guarantee. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported the two sides had reached an agreement and that Baez’s deal included an opt-out provision. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the opt-out was after 2023 and was first with the limited no-trade protection. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported the specific salary breakdown.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

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