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American League Non-Tenders: 11/30/21

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The deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players has come and gone. The Tigers’ decision to non-tender Matthew Boyd — more on that here — represents the most prominent name cast into free agency tonight, but here’s a quick rundown of the rest of the non-tenders in the American League.

Note that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco also has a rundown of this year’s National League non-tenders, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz published his annual projected arbitration salaries earlier this offseason.

Onto the transactions…

  • Outfielder Tim Locastro was non-tendered by the Red Sox, the team announced. The speedy HBP-magnet was claimed off waivers from the Yankees earlier this month after an injury-marred season. He is likely to be an in-demand depth option for teams if his ACL tear recovery goes well.
  • The Rangers announced that outfielder Billy McKinney and catchers David Garcia and Yohel Pozo were non-tendered. Texas also assigned outfielder DJ Peters outright to Triple-A Salt Lake after he went unclaimed on waivers.
  • The Royals non-tendered lefty Richard Lovelady, per a club announcement. Lovelady underwent Tommy John surgery late in the 2021 season and is expected to be sidelined for the entirety of the 2022 season.
  • The Twins non-tendered right-hander Juan Minaya, left-hander Danny Coulombe and right-hander Trevor Megill, per a team announcement. Megill’s non-tender is particularly curious, as he was only just claimed off waivers a few hours ago and was not arbitration-eligible. Presumably, the team will try to quickly re-sign him to a minor league pact and bring him to Spring Training as a depth piece.
  • Infielder Phil Gosselin has been non-tendered by the Angels, per an announcement from the team. The journeyman saw a career-high 373 plate appearances in 2021, but is unlikely to challenge that number next year owing to below average offensive and defensive metrics.

Tigers Non-Tender Matthew Boyd

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The Tigers announced Tuesday that they will not tender a contract to left-hander Matthew Boyd, immediately making him a free agent. Boyd, 30, pitched just eight innings after June 14 this season due to a pair of forearm injuries, ultimately leading to flexor tendon surgery in late September. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.3MM in what would have been his final season of arbitration eligibility.

A specific timeline for Boyd’s return to the mound was never provided, with the team stating only it was “hopeful” he’d be able to pitch at some point in the 2022 season. Tigers GM Al Avila briefly discussed Boyd in his end-of-year press conference and acknowledged that a non-tender was a possibility. At the very least, it’s reasonable to expect Boyd to miss a notable portion of the 2022 campaign; were the Tigers expecting him to be ready early in the season, they’d surely have tendered him a contract, given his track record and lengthy tenure with the club.

The 2020 season was brutal for Boyd, who was knocked around for a 6.71 ERA, but he’s otherwise been a solid starter in Detroit — at times looking like an intriguing mid-rotation option. Boyd has shown the ability to miss bats in droves in the past, though he traded some punchouts for efficiency in 2021 when he attacked the strike zone at a career-best rate and accordingly dropped his walk rate to 6.8% — the second best mark of his career.

Even with that woeful 2020 showing, Boyd carries a 4.66 ERA, a 24.9% strikeout rate and a 6.9% walk rate over his past 494 2/3 innings at the MLB level. He’s often been homer-prone in the past, but Boyd has also gone through stretches where he looks on the cusp of taking his game to a new level. He pitched to a 3.44 ERA and 3.75 FIP through 13 starts this past season before landing on the injured list, for instance, and Boyd looked dominant for a good chunk of the 2019 season as well before a dismal second-half swoon. Whenever he’s healthy, Boyd will surely be viewed by teams around the league as an upside play who, with a few tweaks, could potentially sustain some of those flashes of success he’s shown in the past.

For the time being, with the looming lockout and uncertainty surrounding Boyd’s arm, it’s likely he’ll remain a free agent until the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement and instead field offers from other clubs once the forthcoming transaction freeze is lifted.

Grayson Greiner Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency

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The Tigers announced Monday that catcher Grayson Greiner went unclaimed on outright waivers and has declined an outright assignment in favor of free agency. Greiner had the right to do so, as a player with more than three years of Major League service time.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a modest raise to $800K for Greiner, but the Tigers have ample depth at catcher and effectively non-tendered Greiner with today’s move. Detroit already acquired Tucker Barnhart to serve as their starting catcher on day one of the offseason, and the Tigers also have Jake Rogers and Eric Haase on the roster — to say nothing of 2020 second-rounder Dillon Dingler, who clobbered Class-A pitching in 2021 before struggling upon a promotion to Double-A.

Greiner, 29, was the Tigers’ third-round pick back in 2014 but hasn’t hit much in parts of four big league seasons. From 2018-21, Greiner received 477 Major League plate appearances but posted just a .201/.274/.309 batting line with a 32.1% strikeout rate. He’s been a bit better in Triple-A, where he’s a .233/.314/.347 hitter in 388 plate appearances. Behind the plate, Greiner has been a bit below average, but passable, in terms of framing and also boasts a strong 31% caught-stealing rate in his career. He’ll likely get some opportunities to join a club as upper-level depth with a fair bit of MLB experience.

Detroit’s 40-man roster is now at 38 players.

Tigers Expected To Non-Tender Matthew Boyd

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The Tigers are not expected to tender a contract to veteran starter Matthew Boyd, per a report from Chris McCosky of Detroit News. Boyd, who’s pitched for the Tigers in each of the last seven seasons and twice taken the ball on Opening Day, will become a free agent once the decision is made official. Were Boyd healthy, the Tigers may have made a different decision, but he had flexor tendon surgery in September and is expected to be out until at least June.

Since arriving from the Blue Jays at the 2015 trade deadline as part of a package that sent David Price to Toronto, Boyd has been a roughly league-average starter (95 ERA+ since 2016), serving as a fairly steady innings-eater before spikes in his walk and home run rates saw him post his worst numbers since his rookie season in the small sample of the 2020 season. He actually posted a career-best 3.89 ERA (4.10 FIP) in 2021, but a June triceps strain landed him on the IL for more than two months before a September forearm injury ended his season after 78 2/3 innings.

For his career, the lefty sports a 4.96 ERA (4.69 FIP) across 784 1/3 big-league innings. Entering his age-31 season in 2022, he’ll most likely look to catch on with a team in search of a veteran back-end rotation arm. Given his recent injury history, it’s possible some teams will see Boyd as a reliever, though 145 of his 149 career games have been starts, and he hasn’t appeared in relief since 2017.

Even in spite of an injury that will keep him out for at least a third of the season, Boyd is likely a safe bet for a major league deal, though he’s unlikely to approach the $6.5MM salary he received in 2021. MLBTR projected that Detroit would have been on the hook for $7.3MM had they tendered Boyd a contract for his fourth and final year of arbitration eligibility. With the near-certainty of the Dec. 2 lockout deadline approaching, the southpaw will have very little time to catch on with a new team before transactions stop, though he may choose to wait in an attempt to show teams a relatively clean bill of health.

The Tigers face a handful of non-tender decisions beyond Boyd. McCosky mentions 2018 All-Star Joe Jimenez (slated to make $1.8MM according to MLBTR projections) and the aging but serviceable Jose Cisnero (projected at $1.9MM), both of whom have some upside; Jimenez has swing-and-miss stuff but has struggled with command (his BB% spiked to 16.7% in 2021), while Cisnero has had considerably more success over the last two seasons despite also sporting an above-average walk rate. Still, neither of these salaries would have nearly the impact on the bottom line as Boyd’s.

Of course, the financial impact of the Tigers’ non-tender decisions pales in comparison to their expected commitments on the free agent market. Since signing Eduardo Rodriguez to a market-setting five-year, $77MM deal in mid-November, the Tigers have been linked many of the biggest names on the market, including Carlos Correa (MLBTR link), Marcus Semien (link; since reached an agreement with the Rangers), Javier Baez (link), and Robbie Ray (link).

Whether or not the Tigers add an additional starter in free agency, their rotation figures to be a strength in 2022, with Rodriguez heading a a cast of high-upside young arms in Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning. Veteran righty Spencer Turnbull, who required Tommy John surgery after a hot start to the 2021 campaign, could also contribute down the stretch, though the club is unlikely to count on him until 2023.

Twins, Tigers, Giants Interested In Robbie Ray

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As free agent pitchers continue to fly off the board, AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray remains unsigned, though he is still drawing plenty of attention.  The Angels, Red Sox, and Blue Jays have been previously linked to Ray on the rumor mill, and The New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link) also lists the Twins, Tigers, and Giants as among the clubs with interest in the left-hander.  In addition, Sherman says to “keep an eye” on the Rangers, which isn’t surprising given how much Texas has already splurged on free agent talent, including another top pitcher in Jon Gray.

Of the new teams in the hunt for Ray, it isn’t surprising to see Detroit and San Francisco listed, as both clubs have already been looking for pitching and been aggressive with some early signings.  The Tigers agreed to sign Eduardo Rodriguez for five years and $77MM, while the Giants re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and were reportedly close to also retaining another familiar face in Alex Wood.

While Ray would obviously be a huge help to either team, the argument can be made that San Francisco has the bigger need.  Just about all of the Giants’ 2021 rotation was eligible for free agency, and leaving plenty of holes to be filled around Logan Webb.  DeSclafani’s return filled one gap and Wood would fill another if he also re-signed, though Kevin Gausman left the Giants to instead sign a five-year, $110MM deal with the Blue Jays.  If there is a silver lining to Gausman’s departure, it could be that Toronto would seemingly be less likely to re-sign Ray, removing some competition from the Giants’ pursuit.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have a somewhat fuller rotation in E-Rod, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal all lined up for starting jobs, though the latter trio are is long on promise but still short on experience at the Major League level.  Adding a proven veteran star like Ray makes that rotation much stronger, and also provides a full-circle moment since Ray formerly pitched for the Tigers during his 2014 rookie season.  Detroit acquired Ray from the Nationals for Doug Fister in December 2013, and then flipped him to the Diamondbacks a year later as part of a three-team swap with the Yankees.

Perhaps the bigger obstacle for a Motor City reunion might be the draft pick compensation attached to Ray for rejecting the Jays’ qualifying offer, as Detroit already gave up a pick to sign Rodriguez (who also rejected a QO from the Red Sox).  As a club who received revenue sharing in 2021, the Tigers’ penalty for Rodriguez was the loss of their third-highest selection, which will be either their second-round pick or their Competitive Balance Round pick, depending on which of the two CBRs the Tigers are drawn into this winter.

If the Tigers signed another QO-rejecting free agent like Ray, the Tigers would lose their fourth-highest selection in the 2022 draft.  Since Detroit still seems to be considering Ray, it would appear that losing two draft picks isn’t out of the question for the club.  The presence of the extra CBR selection does help ease the pain, and the Tigers have obviously built up a sturdy amount of young talent through their years of rebuilding.

Likewise, the Giants would also have to give up a draft pick for Ray.  Since San Francisco isn’t a revenue-sharing team and they didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021, the Giants would lose their second-highest pick and $500K from their international draft pool if they signed Ray or any other QO free agents.  San Francisco issued a qualifying offer to one of its own free agents this winter, though Brandon Belt ended up accepting the one-year deal to return to the team.

Minnesota is perhaps the most interesting of the new teams in the mix.  Like the Tigers, the Twins are a revenue-sharing recipient and also the holder of a Competitive Balance Round pick, which could mitigate the draft capital they’d lose to sign Ray.  The Twins also have a strong need for front-of-the-rotation pitching, since Jose Berrios was dealt last summer, Michael Pineda is a free agent, and Kenta Maeda will very likely miss the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Despite these factors, signing Ray to something close to five years and $130MM (MLBTR’s projection for the lefty’s next deal) would represent the second-largest contract in the Twins’ franchise history, and the type of financial outlay that Minnesota has traditionally preferred to avoid.  However, the Twins have been open to larger spending in other free agent pursuits in recent years, and swung such a notable deal with Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM pact in the 2019-20 offseason.  Additionally, Minnesota just hit the nine-figure threshold by inking Byron Buxton to a seven-year extension that will be worth at least $100MM and perhaps significantly more if Buxton hits various incentive clauses.

Spending roughly $26MM on Ray in average annual value would boost the Twins’ 2022 payroll to around the $119MM mark, but considering the club finished the 2018 campaign spending around $131MM in player salaries, Minnesota would still have room to make other additions.  Plus, Miguel Sano, Taylor Rogers, and Tyler Duffey aren’t guaranteed beyond 2022, and Buxton and Randy Dobnak are the only Twins players on the books beyond the 2023 season.

Tigers, Javier Baez Have Had Recent Contract Talks

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The Tigers have and free-agent shortstop Javier Baez have discussed a contract within the past few days, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter). ESPN’s Buster Olney adds that the Tigers are currently “focused” on Baez after previously talking to both Carlos Correa and Marcus Semien. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic also tweets the Tigers and Baez are having discussions, though he also emphasizes that there’s no deal in place.

It’s not the first time the two sides have been connected, but recent talks between the two parties are nevertheless notable — particularly given various reports and industry speculation that Baez could push to sign somewhere prior to the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement next week.

Detroit has been repeatedly linked to Correa for months now, though at least some of that stems from the fact that Tigers manager AJ Hinch knows Correa well from their time together in Houston. General manager Al Avila began the offseason by stating that his team needed both a starting pitcher and a shortstop while simultaneously emphasizing that the club would not “spend like drunken sailors.” This week, speaking at Eduardo Rodriguez’s introductory press conference, Avila struck a similar tone (links via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press and Evan Woodberry of MLive.com).

“One big splash does not win you the offseason,” Avila said, adding that there was never going to be a free agent who could singlehandedly make the Tigers into a contender.

“Obviously, we want to get into the playoffs,” Avila said Tuesday, “but we have to be careful as we move forward. … We have to make sure we can field a good 26-man roster. It’s going to be a measured process. We’re going to be very careful in how we do it.”

It’s important to note that said quotes certainly don’t eliminate the possibility of Detroit beating the market to sign Correa or fellow top free agent Corey Seager. Even with Rodriguez aboard, the Tigers have minimal long-term commitments on the books. Tucker Barnhart and Robbie Grossman are signed through 2022. Miguel Cabrera and Jonathan Schoop are signed through 2023. Rodriguez is the only Tiger signed beyond that 2023 season.

That said, if Detroit truly is focused on employing a more “measured” approach, a shorter-term deal for Baez, Semien or Trevor Story would fit the bill. The combination of Rodriguez and any one of that trio would very likely cost less than signing either Correa or Seager on his own, while still providing considerable upgrades over the 2021 roster.

It was an up-and-down season in 2021 for Baez, who’ll turn 29 the day the CBA expires. After a solid first month at the plate, he alternated between brilliant numbers (May, July, September) and awful numbers (June, August) on a month-by-month basis. Notably, he finished out the year with his hottest streak of the season: .347/.426/.554 with five homers and six doubles in 115 September/October plate appearances. Perhaps more encouraging was the fact that following his trade to the Mets, Baez walked at a 7.0% clip that would represent a career-best, while his strikeout rate dropped from 36.3% with the Cubs to a somewhat more manageable 28.5%.

The ups and downs come with the territory for Baez, who’s known as a streaky hitter, but the end result this season was a .265/.319/.494 batting line and 31 homers. That would be an overwhelming upgrade for a Tigers team that saw its shortstops combine to post an awful .201/.275/.321 batting line — and that’s before considering Baez’s status as plus defensive shortstop and plus baserunner.

Baez ostensibly has a fairly wide market in free agency, as he’s also been linked to the Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees and the incumbent Mets — albeit to varying extents.

Tigers Prospect Ryan Kreidler Drawing Trade Interest

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Tigers shortstop prospect Ryan Kreidler has drawn trade interest from other teams, GM Al Avila told MLB.com’s Jason Beck and other reporters.  A fourth-round pick for Detroit in the 2019 draft, Kreidler hit a combined .270/.349/.454 with 22 home runs over 550 plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels this season, saving his best offensive work (.926 OPS) for his 162 PA with Triple-A Toledo.  This production came with quite a bit of swing-and-miss, but Kreidler also cut down on his strikeouts once reaching Triple-A. 

It seems like the 24-year-old might be able to help a team as soon as 2022, so it isn’t surprising that clubs are eyeing Kreidler as a potential trade chip, especially considering Detroit has been checking in on the biggest names in the free agent shortstop market.  Kreidler could be expendable if the Tigers sign one of those top shortstops, though Avila said that the team’s pursuit may not stop at the free agent market.  Trading for a shortstop is “possible.  It’s the hardest way of doing it, but it’s possible.”

Steven Matz Weighing Multiple Offers, Expects To Sign This Week

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Nov. 23, 10:08 pm: Matz has at least one two-year offer in hand, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Nov. 23, 10:01 am: Matz is weighing offers from each of the Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Cubs, Cardinals, Angels and Mets, Heyman tweets. The Giants’ offer remains on the table even after re-signing DeSclafani.

Nov. 22: The free agent starting pitching market has moved very quickly over the offseason’s first few weeks, and it seems another domino could soon fall. Southpaw Steven Matz is likely to pick his destination before Thanksgiving, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).

Interest in Matz has been robust, with the Red Sox, incumbent Blue Jays, Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals and Angels among teams already rumored to have interest. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network adds the Tigers, Cubs and Giants to that mix. The Mets have put forth a formal offer, although they’re joined in that regard by seven other clubs, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Matz is coming off a nice season in Toronto, rebounding from an awful 2020 campaign to toss 150 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball. The 30-year-old didn’t miss too many bats, but he only walked 6.6% of opponents and induced grounders at a solid 45.5% clip. Matz’s 4.12 SIERA wasn’t quite as impressive as his ERA, but both his actual run prevention and peripherals have typically hovered right around 4.00.

That’s valuable mid-rotation production, although Matz has previously had some issues with the long ball. Home runs weren’t an issue in 2021, but he served up an astonishing 14 round-trippers in just 30 2/3 frames with the Mets in 2020. That showing seemingly marked for an ugly end to a generally solid tenure in Queens, but the New York front office apparently has interest in bringing him back into the fold after his bounceback showing this year.

Each of the Tigers, Cubs and Giants entered the offseason known to be targeting rotation help. The Cubs claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the division-rival Reds. Detroit has already signed Eduardo Rodríguez, while San Francisco has reunited with Anthony DeSclafani and are seemingly on the verge of a deal with Alex Wood. None of that trio has as marked a rotation need as they did just two weeks ago, but there’s enough uncertainty on all three clubs’ staffs that they can and probably will make another rotation addition of some sort this winter.

The Jays considered making Matz an $18.4MM qualifying offer but ultimately decided against it. Toronto won’t receive a compensatory pick if he were to sign elsewhere, then, while adding Matz wouldn’t cost another team a draft pick.

Tigers, Rangers Showing Interest In Marcus Semien

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Many people inside and outside the industry have long predicted the Tigers as the eventual landing spot for top free agent shortstop Carlos Correa. The calculus to get him there is relatively straightforward. The Tigers have the clearest need in the league at shortstop. They are an up-and-coming team with a relatively clear financial ledger. There’s a clear interpersonal link with manager A.J. Hinch having managed Correa in Houston.

Everything adds up – except that the Tigers aren’t planning on putting all their free agent dollars in a single basket, making Javier Baez or Marcus Semien more likely targets for Detroit, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network, (via Twitter). The Tigers already made a significant financial investment to Eduardo Rodriguez, so there’s certainly some logic to Detroit targeting the mid-tier free agent shortstops.

The Rangers are also showing interest in Semien, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). If the Rangers can add a top shortstop, Isiah Kiner-Falefa could move back to third base, where he previously won a gold glove award. Texas has also shown interest in Corey Seager and Trevor Story. Texas is reportedly willing to spend upwards of $200MM for the right guy, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

Semien, at 31, is presumably looking for a shorter-term deal that Correa, who can reasonably expect a deal in the $200-300MM range. Semien’s deal, while significant, will presumably fall far short of that range, even after a 7.3 rWAR season. MLBTR predicted Correa to get more than double Semien in terms of raw dollars ($320MM over ten for Correa, $138MM over six for Semien).

The Blue Jays, of course, continue to have interest in a reunion with Semien, though their needs are flexible enough that a bidding war could push them in a different direction. Like the Tigers, the Jays have already spent significant money this winter in the form of a reasonable extension for Jose Berrios.

Niko Goodrum Elects Free Agency

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The Tigers announced Friday that infielder Niko Goodrum went unclaimed on outright waivers and has elected free agency. Detroit also passed righty Nivaldo Rodriguez and outfielder Jacob Robson through waivers unclaimed, though they’ll both remain with the organization after being outrighted to Triple-A. (Unlike Goodrum, they did not have the service time needed to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency.)

Additionally, the Tigers selected the contracts of righty Angel De Jesus and infielder Kody Clemens. Both are now on the 40-man roster and thus protected from this offseason’s Rule 5 Draft.

Goodrum, 29, looked like a minor league free-agent steal a few years ago when he signed in Detroit and hit .245/.315/.432 with 16 homers and a dozen steals while playing every position other than catcher, center field and pitcher. He matched those solid 2018 numbers in near-identical fashion in 2019, improving his glovework at shortstop in the process and looking like at least a useful utility piece — if not a possible everyday shortstop.

Unfortunately for both Goodrum and the Tigers, the switch-hitter’s bat tumbled in 2020 and wasn’t able to recover this past season. Over the past two years, Goodrum has managed just a .203/.282/.350 batting line, while his strikeout rate has skyrocketed from 28% to 34.9%. Goodrum can still play all over the diamond and still has a decent blend of power and speed, but his mounting issues making contact and a projected $2.9MM arbitration salary prompted Detroit to effectively non-tender him.

Joining the 40-man roster are the power-armed De Jesus and the 25-year-old Clemens — the son of seven-time Cy Young winner Roger Clemens. De Jesus, 24, split the 2021 season between Double-A and Triple-A, compiling a 3.34 ERA with a big 29.1% strikeout rate in 64 innings (primarily out of the bullpen). De Jesus kept the ball on the ground at an above-average rate as well, though his 13.5% walk rate is obviously somewhat problematic.

Clemens is the more highly regarded of today’s additions, ranking between 18th and 26th among Tigers prospects at MLB.com, Baseball America and FanGraphs. He played in 97 games (413 plate appearances) and logged a .247/.312/.466 output with 18 homers, 15 doubles and six triples. He’s primarily been a second baseman, though some scouting reports peg him as more of an offensive-minded utility player — assuming he can continue to improve his contact skills.

The 24-year-old Rodriguez was claimed off waivers out of the Astros organization back in August, and while he fared well in 7 1/3 MLB frames, that wasn’t the case in Triple-A: 5.37 ERA, 44-to-28 K/BB ratio in 62 innings. Robson, 26, was an eighth-round pick by the Tigers in 2016. He went hitless in seven at-bats during his MLB debut this year and posted a .259/.385/.389 batting line in 78 Triple-A games.

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