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Felix Hernandez

Felix Hernandez Expected To Miss 4-6 Weeks Due To Lat Strain

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Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez is expected to miss four to six weeks after an MRI revealed a Grade 1 lat strain, per Corey Brock of The Athletic (Twitter link).

The injury to Hernandez comes as the Mariners were on the verge of getting left-hander Wade LeBlanc back into the rotation after a stay in the injured list. Instead, they’ll continue to operate without one member of their season-opening rotation, meaning young righty Erik Swanson could get an extended look in the rotation alongside Yusei Kikuchi, Marco Gonzales and Mike Leake. LeBlanc pitched in a rehab game in Triple-A yesterday and is seemingly close to a return.

Hernandez, 33, is off to an ugly start for the second consecutive season, having pitched to a 6.52 ERA with 7.9 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 2.09 HR/9 and a 50 percent ground-ball rate. While Hernandez has improved upon last season’s strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates, he’s also been exorbitantly homer-prone so far in 2019.

A full return to form shouldn’t be expected after the struggles he’s endured and the velocity he’s lost in recent seasons, but there’s still reason to believe that Hernandez could turn the tide a bit once he returns this summer. Hernandez’s velocity is up about half mile per hour over last year, and he’s also seen improvements in his swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates. If he can manage to curtail the home run woes a bit, he could perhaps function as a back-of-the-rotation arm over the final few months of the five-year, $135.5MM contract extension he signed back in February 2013.

Mariners Place Felix Hernandez On IL, Select Parker Markel

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As part of a series of roster moves, the Mariners announced that they’ve placed right-hander Felix Hernandez on the 10-day injured list with a strained pitching shoulder and selected the contract of righty Parker Markel from Triple-A Tacoma. The team has also recalled righty Dan Altavilla from Tacoma and optioned outfielder Braden Bishop.

The severity of Hernandez’s strain is unknown, but it’s the latest sign of deteriorating durability for the longtime workhorse, once a perennial 200-inning ace who hasn’t approached that mark since 2015. Hernandez devolved into a back-end starter the next season and hasn’t rebounded yet. After recording a career-worst 5.55 ERA/5.18 FIP in 2018, he’s at 6.52 and 5.30 in those categories through 38 2/3 innings this year – which could prove to be his last with the Mariners.

Hernandez’s injury created an opening for Markel, a 28-year-old who’s finally in position to make his major league debut eight years after the Rays selected him in the 39th round of the 2010 draft. Markel stuck with the Tampa Bay organization through 2016 and then signed with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization entering the 2017 campaign, though he asked the club to terminate his contract before he ever pitched for them.

Markel returned to action stateside last year at the Double-A level, where he pitched for independent Sioux City, before signing with the Mariners in the fall. He got off to a dominant start this season across the minors’ top two levels, combining for 35 strikeouts against seven walks and giving up just one earned run in 17 1/3 innings, to earn a big league promotion.

West Notes: Jones, Felix, Gerson, Skaggs, Adell

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There wasn’t much news on Adam Jones’ market this winter, though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets that the Giants and other teams were interested in the veteran outfielder earlier this winter at a price tag of around $2MM-$3MM on a one-year contract.  Jones was looking for more at the start of the offseason, though ultimately landed a contract in that range, agreeing to a one-year, $3MM deal (with $2MM more available in incentives) with the Diamondbacks.  The Giants were a logical suitor for Jones given their unsettled outfield, and San Francisco ended up landing a number of veteran outfielders (Gerardo Parra, Cameron Maybin, Craig Gentry) to minor league contracts, rather than give Jones a guaranteed Major League deal.  Given the timing, it seems like the Giants decided to move on from Jones rather than wait to see if his price dropped.

Here’s more from the western half of the baseball map…

  • Felix Hernandez is entering the last season of his seven-year, $175MM contract, and while the veteran righty obviously won’t receive anything close to that salary in his next contract, it increasingly seems like it will be his last year altogether with the Mariners.  As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times puts it, “neither side seems interested in continuing the relationship” beyond 2019, creating the possibility of an awkward exit for one of the franchise’s greatest players.  After injuries hampered Hernandez’s effectiveness in 2016-17, the 32-year-old suffered through the worst season of his career in 2018, posting a 5.55 ERA over 155 2/3 innings.  As a result, Hernandez has been dropped to the fifth spot in Seattle’s rotation, thus ending his streak of 10 consecutive Opening Day starts.  There appears to be some hard feelings on Hernandez’s part about missing the opener, admitting to reporters that he was upset about the decision, though adding “I’ve got no comment to that,” when asked to give further details.
  • Mariners rookie right-hander Gerson Bautista left today’s game after suffering an injury to his upper arm and/or pectoral muscle.  (MLB.com’s Greg Johns was among those to report the details.)  There’s no word yet on the severity of the injury, though Bautista left the mound in visible discomfort.  Bautista was part of the trade package acquired from the Mets as part of the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade, and the 23-year-old has been making a good case to win a bullpen job during an impressive spring.
  • Top Angels prospect Jo Adell will be out of action for 10-12 weeks after suffering both a Grade-2 right ankle sprain and a Grade-1 left hamstring strain, the team announced (Twitter link).  Adell was a consensus top-14 prospect in preseason top-100 rankings, with Baseball Prospectus going as far as to rank Adell as the second-best prospect in all of baseball.  The outfielder was expected to begin the year at Double-A, though Adell will now be force to miss a a big chunk of his third pro season.
  • Tyler Skaggs missed today’s scheduled Cactus League outing due to forearm fatigue, Angels manager Brad Ausmus told reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group).  As worrisome as any forearm issue is for a pitcher with Skaggs’ Tommy John history, the injury doesn’t appear to be too serious — Skaggs merely overworked himself while experimenting with a new pitch.  An MRI revealed no problems, and Skaggs is expected to be back on the mound in a few days’ time.  (A follow-up tweet from Fletcher even showed a picture of Skaggs playing catch after his start was shelved.)

West Notes: Kyler, Felix, Verdugo

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Notes from around the game’s western divisions…

  • The A’s are “not giving up” on Kyler Murray, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Murray’s widely perceived as first-round selection in the forthcoming NFL Draft – he’s the 8th best ranked prospect on Mel Kiper Jr.’s latest big board – and recently checked in at an encouraging (for NFL teams) 5’10 and 207 lbs, just a half-inch shorter than Seahawks QB Russell Wilson during his combine appearance in 2013. His status, in fact, continues to soar: NFL Network reports suggest that the QB/OF is now “universally” projected to go first overall in April’s draft. Still, as Rosenthal reminds us, the A’s can still beat any NFL offer for Murray by offering him an unrestricted major-league deal that would guarantee him a spot on the 40-man. Baker Mayfield, last year’s first overall selection in the NFL Draft, signed a guaranteed deal worth nearly $33MM, so any investment of the kind in Murray, a player with only 238 AB in two college seasons, would be a significant risk. Still, the gamble may yet prove to be a worthy one under the current rookie-scale structure, where even the best players struggle to eclipse $5MM combined in their first four full major league campaigns.
  • Mariners righty Felix Hernandez, who clung ardently to a world-beating changeup at the height of his reign, has bluntly been informed that his best pitch is now his curveball, as the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish writes. Indeed, per FanGraphs’ pitch value metrics, the curve was easily tops among Hernandez’s offerings in 2018, the worst in a storied Seattle career for the Venezuelan. With just 0.7 combined fWAR in over 230 IP the last two seasons, and an average fastball velocity that reached a career-low 89.3 MPH in ’18, Hernandez knows his grip on the last rotation spot in the Mariner rotation is tenuous at best. Remarkably, the King, who’s thrown nearly 2,700 innings at the big-league level since his teenage debut, will be just 33 years old for much of the year, and may yet have a second act left in him.
  • Dodgers outfielder Alex Verdugo is tired of waiting for an opportunity, as Bill Plunkett of the OC Register explains: “I hit .330 for two years. I mean – at a certain point, numbers don’t lie. I’ve hit in the minor leagues. I think I’m a career over .300 hitter. Everybody wants to talk about ‘It’s the minors. It’s not the big leagues.’ I hit over .300 against lefties in my career. I hit righties and lefties very well in my career.” Verdugo, who’s been knocked in multiple circles for makeup issues dating back to high school, may again have a bird’s-eye view of the action this year – per Plunkett, the Dodgers “expect” to align their outfield with Cody Bellinger in right and A.J. Pollock in center; Joc Pederson, too, comes in with a career 118 wRC+ total under his belt, and Verdugo wouldn’t seem the logical choice to spell him against his left-handed kryptonite. The 22-year-old isn’t wrong about his batting average totals, but the power numbers – a .122 and .143 ISO in the last two seasons, respectively – leave plenty of room for improvement.

Mariners Rumors: Encarnacion, Hernandez

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After the Mariners acquired designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion from the Indians in a three-team trade in December, the retooling M’s informed the slugger they were planning on flipping him elsewhere for prospects, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. While Enarnacion did generate interest from a few other teams after Seattle acquired him, he’s still a member of the Mariners nearly two months after the fact. The reason? Potential suitors for Encarnacion have faded, Divish relays, making it possible the 36-year-old will at least open the season with the Mariners.

The Rays, Astros and White Sox were reportedly “involved” in talks for Encarnacion in late December. Tampa Bay showed no interest in trading for Encarnacion, however, even if the Mariners ate half of the remaining $25MM guarantee left on his contract, according to Divish. Meanwhile, although the Mariners did shop Encarnacion to division-rival Houston, the Astros appear content with Tyler White and Yuli Gurriel as their top DH/first base options, Divish suggests. As for the White Sox, they don’t look like a clean fit for Encarnacion given the presences of lumbering sluggers Jose Abreu and Yonder Alonso.

With Encarnacion primarily being a DH at this juncture of his career, his market’s limited to the American League, where nobody is champing at the bit to acquire him, per Divish. The Mariners’ best hope of moving Encarnacion before the season may be if a contending team’s DH/first baseman suffers an injury during the spring, then, as Divish observes. Otherwise, it appears the M’s will be left to hope Encarnacion – a once-dominant offensive force who posted a 146 wRC+ and a major league-best 231 home runs from 2012-17 – can rebuild his stock in their uniform leading up to the July and August trade deadlines. Encarnacion did belt 32 homers in 579 PAs last year – his seventh straight campaign with at least 30 HRs – though his .246/.336/.474 line and 115 wRC+ fell flat in comparison to his tremendous output over prior seasons.

Like Encarnacion, right-hander Felix Hernandez is potentially a year from free agency and may be in his last several months as a Mariner. And the M’s have even less hope of finding a taker for the formerly marvelous Hernandez, owing to both his team-high salary ($27.5MM) and the hideous 5.13 ERA/5.12 FIP he registered over 242 1/3 innings from 2017-18. Despite King Felix’s recent struggles, however, “all indications” are that he plans to his career beyond the upcoming season, Divish writes. Regardless, Hernandez will try to return to at least serving as a viable starter this year after an awful showing in 2018, when the M’s briefly relegated the 2010 AL Cy Young winner to their bullpen. Going forward, though, general manager Jerry Dipoto emphasized that the Mariners are planning on using Hernandez solely as a starter.

Trade/Free Agent Rumors: Mariners, Brantley, Kepler, Kikuchi

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While fans, pundits and other teams all try to parse the Mariners’ flurry of offseason moves, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto chatted with Fancred’s Jon Heyman and made a few definitive statements. Dipoto went on the record to indicate that the Mariners won’t be adding star right fielder Mitch Haniger to any trades as a means of persuading another team to take on a bad contract, nor will Seattle give any consideration to the thought of releasing Felix Hernandez this offseason, as some have speculated. Dipoto says there’s “zero” chance the Mariners would release King Felix this winter, adding that “out of respect to the career he’s had he deserves the opportunity” to right the ship in 2019. Heyman suggests that any of Ryon Healy, Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak or Mike Leake could be the next to go as the Mariners look to further reshape the organization.

Some more rumblings on both the trade and free-agent markets…

  • Michael Brantley’s agents are telling interested teams that the left fielder is willing to play some first base next season, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Brantley hasn’t played the position since a brief crash course there in the minors back in ’08, and no club is looking at him as a regular at first, Rosenthal notes. That said, Brantley’s willingness to play a new position won’t make him any less appealing to interested parties. One thing that could push suitors away, however, would be his asking price. David O’Brien of The Athletic suggests that Brantley could be looking for a Carlos Santana-esque salary of $20MM over a three-year term — a lofty ask for a player with his injury history. The 31-year-old was undeniably terrific at the plate in 2018, as he typically is when healthy, but shoulder and ankle injuries wiped out most of his 2016-17 seasons. O’Brien further tweets that the Braves might be willing to go to three years for Brantley, but not at an annual value anywhere near that rate.
  • Max Kepler’s name is commonly brought up when rival clubs call the Twins about potential trades, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription required). That’s been the case for more than a year now, Hayes notes, reporting that Kepler was one of the numerous pieces the Rays sought last winter when chatting Chris Archer with Minnesota. But the Twins still believe that Kepler, an excellent outfielder defender who has displayed some power but not authored a genuine breakout season just yet, is capable of taking his game to a new level. As chief baseball officer Derek Falvey explains to Hayes, it’s tough to judge Kepler’s development as one would with a traditional prospect given that he was born in Berlin, Germany and has still accrued fewer at-bats than many players who are several years younger but come from places where baseball is commonly played year-round. A strong right fielder who can play center as well, Kepler won’t turn 26 until February and still has four years of team control remaining.
  • The Rangers are doing their homework on Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi, GM Jon Daniels tells T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Daniels declined to comment on the Rangers’ specific level of interest in Kikuchi but suggested that his scouts are “obviously” aware of the Seibu Lions ace, who was posted for MLB clubs earlier this week. While early rumors have suggested that Kikuchi may prefer a West Coast club, the Rangers are no strangers to pursuing high-profile NPB talent, as evidenced by their acquisition of Yu Darvish several years ago (admittedly under a different posting system). While Texas isn’t in position to contend next season, the 27-year-old Kikuchi is a logical target even for non-contending clubs, as his relative youth means that he could still be in his prime when a rebuilding club turns the corner. And, given Texas’ utter dearth of pitching, it’s only logical that they’d have interest in a youthful option with a fair bit of upside.

AL West Notes: Rangers, Felix, Cruz

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Let’s check in on the latest out of the American League West …

  • As the Rangers prepare to find a new manager, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News explores the case for simply keeping interim skipper Don Wakamatsu. It’ll obviously be hard for Wakamatsu to move the needle on the team’s bottom line over his brief tenure, but he is in some respects in the midst of a live audition for the job. As Grant notes, the former Mariners manager not only “has a long history with the Rangers and, in particular, [GM Jon] Daniels,” but also arguably offers the right blend of “continuity” and change. Wakamatsu certainly has a broad array of experiences in different dugouts, as is well documented in the piece.
  • Longtime Mariners ace Felix Hernandez is slated to return from a hamstring injury to make one last start in the 2018 season, as MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. The veteran hurler, who has fallen on hard times on the mound of late, says he “just want[s] to finish strong and show them I can still pitch.” From the club’s perspective, skipper Scott Servais says, they hope to send Hernandez “into the offseason with peace of mind” to he can know how best to “get ready for next year.” Of course, there’s also a line of thinking that both player and team could be best served by a clean break at the end of this season — as Bob Dutton recently discussed (but did not specifically advocate).
  • Meanwhile, Dutton tackles the case of veteran Mariners slugger Nelson Cruz in another post on the KLAY 1180 AM blog. Both sides are saying they are hopeful of a reunion, but they have yet to hold contract talks. It’s an interesting dynamic, as Dutton explains, because there’s an argument to be made that Seattle ought to utilize its resources in a different manner — particularly with Robinson Cano on hand as a potential part-time DH. Of course, as Dutton also rightly notes, there is still plenty of time left to chat before Cruz formally returns to the open market — and, of course, he could still return thereafter. It’ll be interesting to see how things pan out.

AL West Notes: Manaea, Keuchel, Felix

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There’s a bit of surprisingly good news for an Athletics team that has weathered a withering run of injuries to young pitchers. As MLB.com’s Jane Lee was among those to report (Twitter links), the Oakland organization says it was actually rather encouraged by the outcome of Sean Manaea’s shoulder procedure yesterday. Though the team likely won’t be able to rely on him as a contributor in 2019, it seems there’s some hope that Manaea could be ready to return late in the season. And the long-term outlook is generally good, which is particularly promising for a hurler who is only just reaching arbitration eligibility.

More from some other prominent AL West hurlers …

  • Astros southpaw Dallas Keuchel is headed for free agency in less than two months, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready to think about it. As Mark Berman of FOX 26 was among those to convey (video link on Twitter), the lefty says he isn’t interested in pondering his future, preferring instead to “enjoy this team and this year.” That’s surely a sensible position to take for a variety of reasons. The 30-year-old and his teammates are, after all, trying to ramp up for a second consecutive World Series run. And he can best increase his market options and earning power by continuing to throw the ball well. Through 196 2/3 solid frames this year, Keuchel carries a 3.71 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 along with a 53.3% groundball rate. That last figure, while still strong, is well under Keuchel’s established levels, though he is compensating in some regards by holding opposing hitters to less home runs (11.2% HR/FB, 0.78 HR/9) than he has typically.
  • The Mariners shouldn’t worry about the $27MM they owe Felix Hernandez in deciding his future with the club, veteran journalist Bob Dutton writes on the KLAY 1180 blog. Simply put, that’s a sunk cost. And Dutton says the M’s ought to ignore it — at least, perhaps, unless they are able to arrange some kind of trade scenario utilizing the contract. That’s not to say that the end ought to come before the start of the 2019 season, but Dutton argues it’s not a possibility the organization should shy from considering.

AL West Notes: Felix, Lowrie, Cahill, Skaggs, Calhoun, Listach

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Mariners fans in particular will want to read up on the club’s faded ace, Felix Hernandez, in this piece from Scott Miller of Bleacher Report. The veteran hurler has taken his downfall hard, but he’s still working to rediscover the magic that once made him one of the game’s very best pitchers. Of course, his lost fastball velocity means the odds are long; it’s still in full retreat despite the fact that Hernandez says his “body feels good” after dealing with injuries over the past two seasons. It’s a well-conceived and well-paced story — at once deep and, refreshingly, not unnecessarily lengthy — with some notable observations from current and former M’s personnel and others close to Hernandez.

More from the AL West:

  • Athletics second baseman Jed Lowrie acknowledged today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link) that he has had some contact with the club about staying on past the present season. The team’s interest in maintaining the relationship has been known for some time, but it’s interesting nevertheless to hear Lowrie address the matter. To this point, Lowrie says, talks haven’t moved past an initial expression of interest. But he says he likes it in Oakland and believes he fits the club well, so it certainly sounds as if the good vibes flow in both directions. No doubt that’s due in some part to the immense success both player and team have found this year. It’s a second-straight eyebrow-raising season at the plate for Lowrie, who owns a healthy .276/.360/.455 slash since the start of the 2017 campaign. He has set himself up for an interesting trip onto the open market — if nothing comes together first with the A’s.
  • In yet more unwelcome health news for the Athletics, righty Trevor Cahill has gone down with a rhomboid muscle strain, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The upper-back ailment comes at an uncomfortable proximity to the postseason, though it seems as if the expectation is he won’t miss more than a single start. To be sure that things aren’t more serious, Cahill is headed in for an MRI.
  • Angels southpaw Tyler Skaggs was able to work up to a 48-pitch sim game today, skipper Mike Scioscia tells reporters including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). It’s still not clear whether he’ll return to the majors this year, though that figures to be a topic of discussion in the coming days. The 27-year-old, who is rehabbing from an adductor strain, is looking to extend his personal-best 116 2/3-inning, 3.78 ERA showing on the season. Whether or not he’s able to do so, Skaggs has impressed and now seems to be one of the club’s best bets to provide quality frames in 2019 — if he can stay healthy. Skaggs will likely command a nice raise in his second-to-last trip through the arbitration process after earning $1,875,000 this year.
  • It’s still not clear when Rangers prospect Willie Calhoun will get his first real crack at the big leagues. As T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com writes, Calhoun had seemed likely to see much more action in the 2018 season. Instead, after a relatively tepid season at the plate at the Triple-A level, Calhoun is seeing scattered time late this season. It seems the organization still wants to see more from the key piece of last year’s Yu Darvish swap before clearing the way. Beyond his known deficiencies in the field and on the bases, manager Jeff Banister seemingly hinted that there are some strength and conditioning steps that the youngster could take to improve.
  • In other Mariners news, the club will part ways with Triple-A skipper and longtime big leaguer player Pat Listach, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times recently tweeted. That’ll put an end to a four-year run at Tacoma for the former infielder, who has at times been mentioned as a future MLB managerial candidate.

Mariners Move Felix Hernandez To The Bullpen

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Longtime Mariners rotation fixture Felix Hernandez has lost his job in the starting five, manager Scott Servais told reporters (including MLB.com’s Greg Johns) after last night’s game.  Hernandez will be moved to the bullpen, and while Servais left open the possibility that the former ace could become a starter again this season, the focus is clearly on Hernandez getting back any of his old form.

The decision comes on the heels of one of the worst outings of Hernandez’s 14-year career; the right-hander allowed 11 runs (seven earned) over six innings against the Rangers last Tuesday.  That start underlined just what a rough season it has been for Hernandez, who has a 5.73 ERA, 7.19 K/9, 2.15 K/BB rate, and a hefty 1.5 HR/9 in 124 innings.  Advanced metrics (5.03 FIP, 4.72 xFIP, 4.66 SIERA) paint only a slightly better picture of his performance this year, while Hernandez’s 39.5% hard-hit ball rate is by far the highest of his career and well beyond his 27.7% career average.

Hernandez is a completely unknown quantity as a relief pitcher, as he has started all 398 of his career Major League games, and last appeared as a reliever when he was a 19-year-old phenom pitching at the Triple-A level in 2005.  It also remains to be seen how he’ll adjust to the role change on an emotional level — Hernandez simply told reporters “I’ve got nothing to say,” when asked to comment yesterday.

After several years as one of the game’s best and more durable pitchers, Hernandez’s effectiveness began to dip in 2015, and injuries limited him to just 240 total innings and 1.4 fWAR in 2016-17.  Aside from a brief DL stint for back soreness in July, health doesn’t seem to be the problem for Hernandez this year, as he simply may have hit a wall at age 32 after all these years and all those innings (an average of 218 IP per season from 2006-15).

Unfortunately for Hernandez and the Mariners, the bulk of the veteran righty’s downturn has mostly coincided with the length of the seven-year, $175MM extension he signed prior to the 2013 season.  Hernandez is still owed $29MM in 2019, a number that now looks like a sunk cost for the team.  Between Hernandez, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Dee Gordon, and Mike Leake, Seattle has over $100MM in salary committed next season towards five players who have combined for just 5.5 fWAR in 2018 (with the slight caveat of Cano’s 80-game absence due to a PED suspension).

With Hernandez now in the pen, that leaves the quartet of James Paxton, Leake, Marco Gonzales, and Wade LeBlanc as Seattle’s top four starters.  Swingman Erasmo Ramirez has spent much of the season on the DL and is still rehabbing, so Casey Lawrence, Christian Bergman, or Robert Whalen could step in as the fifth starter on at least a temporary basis.  Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto is no stranger to the trade market, so with the M’s still battling in the wild card race, the team can’t be counted out to make a move for a starter, if they can work out a deal through the August waiver period.

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