- The Astros, too, would like to add a left-handed reliever and may find more of a difference-maker in that pursuit than in seeking rotation upgrades, Rosenthal writes in his column. If the Astros don’t land Sonny Gray, they’ll likely at least look at rotation rentals, but they’d have to be convinced that whoever they acquire is an upgrade over Charlie Morton and/or the returning Collin McHugh. A more definitive upgrade would be easily apparent in the ’pen.
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Astros Rumors
Astros Asked Tigers About Michael Fulmer
Athletics righty Sonny Gray is an obvious target for contenders, and he’s among the players touched upon in a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (which also delves into some analysis and predictions). The Brewers “may be the most aggressive” suitor for the Oakland starter, per Nightengale, with the Royals even entering the picture to some extent. He guesses, though, that the Astros are most likely to land Gray. That’s not to say that it’s Houston’s first choice; Nightengale says that the team spoke with the Tigers on Michael Fulmer but “came up empty.”
Latest On Sonny Gray
- Olney lists Sonny Gray, Yonder Alonso, J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson and Pat Neshek as five players that definitively will be traded prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. All of those players are known to be available, with the Athletics and Phillies at differing stages of a lengthy rebuilding process and the Tigers aiming to pare down payroll by moving short-term veterans. But, Olney’s strong characterization of the likelihood is nonetheless notable, especially since both Gray and Wilson are controllable beyond the 2017 campaign. The Brewers, Cubs, Astros, Yankees, Braves and Indians are among the teams in the mix for Gray, though likely not all to the same extent. Alonso, meanwhile, has reportedly had talks with the A’s about an extension, though Billy Beane’s rebuilding comments yesterday certainly lend credence to the notion that a trade could be the likelier outcome.
Astros Have Interest In Jeff Samardzija
Having finished as one of the runners-up in the Jose Quintana sweepstakes, the Astros are still looking to improve their rotation. That upgrade could come in the form of Giants right-hander Jeff Samardzija, on whom the Astros are “doing background work,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
Samardzija, 32, would represent a potential multiyear piece for Houston, as he’s under control through 2020 on the five-year, $90MM contract he signed prior to the 2016 campaign. He’s still owed upward of $60MM, which would make him an especially costly acquisition for a Houston club whose biggest contract is the four-year, $52MM pact right fielder Josh Reddick signed before the season.
In the near term, Samardzija, who’s on pace for his fifth straight 200-inning season, would provide a mid-rotation workhorse to an Astros team that could use one. While the Astros easily own the American League’s best record (61-29) and have run away with the AL West, which they lead by 16.5 games, their rotation hasn’t been the picture of health this season. Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers have pitched like aces this year, but the former has hit the disabled list twice with neck issues and the latter has been on the DL once and, over the past month-plus, has struggled to go deep in games. Charlie Morton has also missed extensive time this year, and injuries have troubled him throughout his career, while Collin McHugh hasn’t pitched at all and Joe Musgrove hasn’t been sharp after a strong major league debut last season. Fortunately for the Astros, Keuchel and McHugh are nearing returns, while Brad Peacock and Mike Fiers have stepped up since Keuchel’s DL placement in early June.
Despite the myriad issues in their rotation, including David Paulino’s season-ending performance-enhancing drug suspension, Astros starters entered Saturday atop the AL in ERA (3.86) and third in fWAR (8.2). Samardzija has accounted for 2.3 fWAR, making him one of the majors’ most valuable starters in that metric’s estimation, but the hard thrower hasn’t prevented runs at a pristine rate. Through 118 innings this year, he carries a 4.58 ERA, largely thanks to a career-worst home run-to-fly ball rate (16.7 percent), an elevated batting average on balls in play (.323) and a low strand rate (67.1 percent). Going from pitcher-friendly AT&T Park in San Francisco to Houston’s Minute Maid Park likely wouldn’t do his already high homer rate any favors, though his sparkling K/BB ratio (9.07) – which is No. 1 among major league starters – could help lead to somewhat of a turnaround in the ERA department.
While the Astros may push to acquire Samardzija, it’s unclear whether the Giants would trade him or whether Houston is one of the eight teams he’d block a move to. Giants executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean revealed earlier this week that the out-of-contention club is “open for business” as the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline nears, but he also plans to vie for a playoff berth in 2018. As such, the Giants could prefer to keep Samardzija in their quest to return to relevance next year.
West Notes: Hand, Harris, Wilson, Melancon, Richards
About half of the teams in the league have expressed some level of interest in Padres lefty Brad Hand, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune reports. Evidently, those discussions have yet to get truly serious, as Lin adds that the Friars aren’t believed to be closing in on any swaps. A significant portion of the rest of the pitching staff has received attention of some kind, too, Lin adds. There are a few other interesting pitching trade candidates on the San Diego roster — Trevor Cahill chief among them, perhaps — and it wouldn’t be surprising to see several deals go down before the deadline.
Here’s more from out west:
- The Astros announced that reliever Will Harris is headed to the 10-day DL with right shoulder inflammation (h/t Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle, via Twitter). That’s somewhat troubling news at first glance, though Harris says he doesn’t anticipate a significant layoff (video via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, on Twitter). The 32-year-old has continued his stellar run in Houston, compiling 34 2/3 innings of 2.86 ERA ball on the year — with 10.1 K/9 against just 1.3 BB/9. Clearly, he’s a key member of the pen and a big part of the team’s planning the rest of the way. (Harris is also controlled through 2019 at very appealing rates.)
- Meanwhile, the Astros are likely focused on adding a starter and a lefty reliever. As regards the latter, the team is said to have an eye on Tigers lefty Justin Wilson, per Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network (via Twitter). The teams discussed Wilson over the winter, per Rosenthal, and the southpaw’s quality effort early over the first half surely hasn’t reduced the interest. Wilson currently carries a career-high 12.8 K/9 with 3.4 BB/9 along with a 2.36 ERA over his 34 1/3 innings.
- Giants closer Mark Melancon seems unlikely to make it back before the trade deadline, likely removing him from consideration as a trade candidate, as Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News writes. The veteran righty, shelved for the second time this year with a forearm issue, has been able to pick up a baseball. But skipper Bruce Bochy suggested the team plans to bring him along slowly. As Baggarly suggests, it never seemed particularly likely that Melancon would end up being dealt regardless. For what it’s worth, though, I would add that Melancon would represent a very plausible August trade candidate if that proved desirable.
- Angels righty Garrett Richards still hasn’t been cleared to throw, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. The unfortunate hurler discussed the frustrations of his long-running effort to get healthy, telling Fletcher that he is at least encouraged that his current problem (with a biceps nerve) has improved somewhat — and that it doesn’t implicate his elbow, which he says still feels great. “Nobody knows anything about this injury,” said Richards, who says it isn’t clear when he’ll be deemed ready to begin throwing again. “I can’t worry about getting all caught up in playing right now,” he added. “I’ve got to worry about getting healthy first. When that happens, I’ll be ready.” Meanwhile, Fletcher notes that both Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are continuing to progress while working off of a mound, which seems to hold out some real promise of bolstering the team’s injury-riddled rotation in the relatively near future.
Reactions To And Effects Of The Jose Quintana Trade
After a nearly silent All-Star break on the rumor front, the Cubs and White Sox stunned the baseball world by announcing a blockbuster deal that sent left-hander Jose Quintana from Chicago’s American League club to its National League team in exchange for minor leaguers Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Matt Rose and Bryant Flete. Over the past 24 hours, both teams have addressed the media, pundits from around the media have weighed in on the swap, and others have reported details on alternative talks that each team had leading up to the blockbuster move. Here’s a before-and-after, if you will, of how what might be the summer’s biggest trade transpired…
- The Yankees, Brewers and Astros were all involved in varying levels of trade talks regarding Quintana before the Cubs ultimately acquired him, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Braves, too, were in on Quintana “until the end,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Meanwhile, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies were “never really in” on Quintana despite a potential need for some rotation upgrades with some of their younger arms sputtering lately.
- The Cubs tried to engage the Tigers in trade talks on Michael Fulmer before acquiring Quintana, reports Nightengale in a full column. However, Detroit gave no indication that it was willing to listen unless the Cubs were willing to include both Javier Baez and Ian Happ in trade talks. They also inquired on Justin Verlander, per Morosi (also via Twitter), though he notes that, similarly, talks between the two sides “never gained momentum.”
- While many were stunned to see the Sox and Cubs line up on a trade — their first since 2006 — White Sox GM Rick Hahn scoffed at the notion that their shared city would serve as an impediment to trade talks, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. “This notion that we wouldn’t do business with them because they’re in town — or somehow we would actually take an inferior baseball deal for non-baseball reasons because of emotion or a rivalry or something totally unrelated to putting the best possible team on the field for the next several years — is laughable,” said Hahn. The South Side GM went on to laud Jimenez’s upside, calling him a potential middle-of-the-order bat with power potential and the ability to hit to all fields. Hahn adds that yesterday’s package was “far and away the best offer, the best possibility, that we’ve discussed with any club since we’ve started this process roughly a year or ago or so.”
- The Cubs believed that they were out of the running to acquire Quintana after talking to Hahn in June, president of baseball operations told reporters (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times). Hahn, though, re-engaged with Epstein on Sunday night, and the two talked over the next few days, including a conversation that included Hahn ducking behind an exhibit at All-Star FanFest in Miami to avoid being seen (per ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers, on Twitter). Ultimately, it became clear that the Cubs would have to part with two of their very best prospects to get the deal done. “This deal had zero-percent chance of happening without both Eloy and Cease in it,” said Epstein. The Cubs president went on to say that they’ve been trying to acquire a pitcher like Quintana for “a long time” and added that his analytics and scouting teams “[dug] deep” to determine whether there were any changes that led to Quintana’s slow start t the season. “Our assessment on both fronts was that he is the same guy, and our staff felt that way with conviction,” Epstein said.
- Also via Wittenmyer’s column, Epstein said that the team isn’t necessarily done yet, though their play in the next two weeks will dictate what other moves are or aren’t made. “We need to play well coming out of the gates here, and we’ll assess what we’re trying to do in large part based on how we play and where we are in the standings, and how realistic we think a World Series run is this year,” Epstein said. “Everything is still on the table for this year.”
- ESPN’s Keith Law opines (Insider subscription required and recommended) that both clubs did well in the trade. The Cubs picked up a durable arm that has a near-ace-level track record over the past three years whose raw stuff “didn’t really waver” even through his struggles earlier this season. Quintana can help offset the loss of right-hander Jake Arrieta after the season, joining Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks in the rotation for the next several years. His contract is also affordable enough that the team can comfortably pursue rotation help on the free-agent market this winter. Law projects Jimenez as a middle-of-the-order bat and suggests that he alone could’ve been an acceptable return, though the inclusion of Cease sweetens the deal. Cease has questions about his command as well as his durability and may end up in the ’pen, though his velocity and pair of potentially above-average secondary offerings make him a nice upside play. Law notes that he’s been leapfrogged by a pair of pitching prospects on the Cubs’ organizational rankings, which might’ve made him easier to deal.
- Both Nightengale and Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network opine that it’s ridiculous that this is just the second trade these two teams have made this decade and offer praise for Hahn and Epstein for their pragmatic approach to dealing with one another. Teams are making more rational and data-driven decisions than ever before, Rosenthal notes, ultimately surmising that that trend should also include a willingness to deal within the same city and within the same division.
- Yahoo’s Jeff Passan writes that Quintana’s contract was every bit as important to the Cubs as Quintana himself. With significant arbitration raises looming for players like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Baez, Carl Edwards Jr. and others looming in the next two years, the team’s enviable young core is going to rapidly become considerably more expensive. Shedding money from aging veterans like Arrieta, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist will obviously free up some cash, but Quintana’s contract meets an important nexus of future payroll flexibility, remaining under the luxury tax and improving the near- and long-term roster.
Astros May Look At High-End Relievers Due To Lack Of Starters Available
- In his weekly AL Notes column, Heyman reports that with few top starters left on the market, the Astros may instead pursue high-end bullpen help in an effort to shorten the game and load up the relief corps for the postseason. Unsurprisingly, their list of targets would include Zach Britton, if he’s available. (Most clubs in the league would perk up at the notion of acquiring a healthy Britton.)
American League Injury Situations That May Impact The Trade Deadline
With the deadline approaching quickly, teams will be forced to make tough decisions. Health issues will play a large role in complicating those decisions. In some cases, when a player is known to be out for the entire season, acting decisively to find a replacement makes clear sense. But there are plenty of unresolved health issues throughout the game that will likely have significant impacts on a team’s approach to the deadline. Teams will be gathering information on internal players and on possible targets; here are a few players whose uncertain health status will be watched closely:
Carson Smith & Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox: While Pablo Sandoval is nominally on the DL, and perhaps still factors into the team’s needs at third base, the real action is in the pitching staff. Smith could yet represent a significant pen arm, but it’s still unclear how much (if at all) he’ll contribute. And while Rodriguez has been excellent, and seems slated to return shortly from the DL, his recurring knee problems could become a major near-term concern.
Matt Andriese, Rays: There have been plenty of suggestions that the Rays could consider dealing a starter — particularly, pending free agent Alex Cobb — even if they’re in contention. But that’d be much harder to do if Andriese isn’t showing clear signs of returning to full health. Even if he is, the club could elect to stand pat, perhaps deciding to use the abundance of starting options to bolster the relief corps rather than spending young talent to get a new bullpen arm.
Greg Bird & Tyler Austin, Yankees: Perhaps the ship has sailed on the Yanks fully relying on Bird in the second half. After all, he struggled when he was available and is dealing with an ankle injury that does not appear to come with a straightforward solution. And it’s unclear just how much stock the Yankees would put in Austin even if he were at full health. Still, the injury signals coming from these two over the next few weeks could impact the Bronx Bombers’ deadline plans, particularly since the organization is clearly looking to avoid parting with significant prospects unless strictly necessary.
J.J. Hardy, Orioles: Chris Davis is on the shelf as well, though the team’s glut of corner options allows them to weather that storm fairly well. It’s another story with Hardy, who is still one to three weeks from even resuming baseball activities. The Orioles have been in a free fall since mid-May, but GM Dan Duquette was maintaining a buyer’s outlook as recently as late June, but more recent suggestions indicated that the team is presently on the fence. If the O’s perform well in the first two weeks coming out of the break, Hardy’s absence creates a potential area of need.
Danny Salazar, Indians: Shoulder issues have significantly limited the talented right-hander, who is working back towards the majors at present. If he can return to full health, Salazar could conceivably get back to providing quality innings from the rotation — or, at least, the bullpen. If not, the team’s possible pitching needs will be all the more clear.
Hector Santiago, Twins: With a somewhat mysterious and lingering back issue, the southpaw is a question mark for Minnesota in the second half. The team is shopping for young starters regardless, but the urgency of that effort — if not also the possibility of considering at least a modest rental investment — could hinge in part upon Santiago’s progress.
Nate Karns, Royals: Kansas City is reportedly looking to augment the back of its rotation, which is likely in no small part due to the fact that the return of Karns is looking less and less likely. The last update on Karns suggested that thoracic outlet surgery may very well be in his future. If he is indeed lost for the season, as lefty Matt Strahm recently was, the Royals’ need to snag a back-of-the-rotation rental becomes more acute.
Dallas Keuchel & Collin McHugh, Astros: The AL West crown is already nearly in hand for Houston, but that doesn’t mean the team is without its needs. The ’Stros have the luxury of looking ahead to the postseason, but still clearly would like to add to the top of the rotation. So long as Keuchel and McHugh are moving back toward the major league mound, the addition of a starter will remain classified as a strong want. But if either (particularly Keuchel) show any worrying signs, the organization will surely feel a much greater urgency to add an arm that can help drive the team through the postseason.
Matt Shoemaker, Angels: Obviously, Mike Trout is of even greater concern. But all indications are that he’s good to go beginning this Friday. For the Angels, deciding whether it’s worth adding to the roster at the deadline could hinge more upon the health of the rotation. Shoemaker will get checked out before hopefully beginning a throwing program within the week; whether he is progressing toward a return will be important to the Halos’ plans. (Honorable mention: Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs, who are on longer-fuse rehab paths.)
Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners: It’s not clear at this point whether Seattle can expect much at all from the veteran down the stretch. Seattle is already without Drew Smyly for the year due to Tommy John surgery. If Iwakuma can’t begin to make his way back from shoulder problems before the deadline –and if the team can hang in the Wild Card hunt over the next two weeks — then pursuit of a starter would make all the more sense.
Keone Kela & Jake Diekman, Rangers: The Texas pen has produced plenty of hand-wringing this year. Ironically, perhaps, the first crack seemed to form with Kela’s stunning demotion to start the year, owing to behavioral issues. But he has been effective since making his way back, pitching his way into consideration for the closer’s role that has been vacated by Sam Dyson and Matt Bush. Now, however, Kela is dealing with shoulder soreness; his status could help dictate the team’s needs over the coming weeks. Diekman is even more of a question mark after surgery to treat ulcerative colits cost him the entire first half. He’s throwing from flat ground as of early July, and a return to the mound would obviously be a potential boon for the Texas relief corps. But, they also can’t fully know how much to expect from him in the second half given the unique nature of his medical status.
White Sox Maintain High Asking Price On Quintana
The White Sox remain undeterred in seeking to obtain a big haul for sturdy lefty Jose Quintana, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. With three years of affordable control remaining after the current season, the rebuilding organization probably doesn’t need to deal Quintana this summer.
To this point, the team has stood on that notable piece of leverage, continuing to ask for “two very top prospects” in its conversations with interested rivals. The South Siders have pressed the Astros for Francis Martes and Kyle Tucker, while asking the Yankees to headline a deal with either Gleyber Torres or Clint Frazier.
That strategy seemed in danger of backfiring earlier this year, as Quintana stumbled out of the gates. But the 28-year-old has righted the ship of late, perhaps restoring any lost shine.
Quintana has thrown only 104 1/3 frames over 18 starts, putting him shy of a 200-inning pace, though he has yet to exhibit any health issues. (More broadly, durability is one of the lefty’s chief attributes.) His 15.5% K%-BB% is a near-exact match for the numbers he carried over the prior three campaigns. A rise in home runs allowed (1.21 per nine) is perhaps the largest single factor differentiating Quintana’s current campaign from the five strong seasons that came before.
If teams buy into the improved form Quintana has shown since the start of June — 45 strikeouts and just 12 earned runs over forty frames — then perhaps they’ll be willing to meet the steep asking price. Then again, his less-than-dominant form over the course of the current season raises yet more questions about just how hard contenders should push to get him.
For the Astros, Heyman notes, Quintana may not really be as impactful an arm as the team would prefer to acquire. That makes sense: Houston is running off with the AL West and has many quality rotation options, but would love to add a true lock-down starter to the top of its staff.
In fact, the ’Stros have gone so far as to ask the Mets about star righty Jacob deGrom, per the report. (Tom Verducci of SI.com had previously reported some level of interest.) He’d likely be a more impactful addition, though there’s still no reason to think the Mets have any interest in even considering a deal.
As it stands, teams like the Astros and Yankees are continuing to “look around for alternatives,” per the report. But the lack of obviously available pitchers of comparable or better quality — with the exception, it seems, of Sonny Gray — represents another key element of the White Sox’ bargaining position. Just how things will turn out remains to be seen, but to this point the long standoff continues.
Astros Trade Rumors: Justin Wilson, Justin Verlander
- Wilson has the subject of trade buzz since the offseason, and Fenech reports that the Astros came the closest to obtaining the southpaw over the winter. The Tigers asked Houston for top outfield prospect Derek Fisher at the time, and one would think Detroit’s interest has only increased given how Fisher has performed this season. Fisher has a superb .306/.370/.575 slash line and 19 homers over 336 Triple-A plate appearances, not to mention a .992 OPS during a 21-PA cup of coffee with the Astros in his big league debut. This is just my speculation, but since Houston’s bullpen is already arguably the league’s best, I’m not sure they would deal a top prospect for another reliever. On the other hand, if the Astros are unable to land starting pitching help, they could turn to the relief market in an attempt to form an ultra-bullpen, a la the 2015 Royals. The Astros have also had scouts recently watching the Tigers.
- Verlander’s big contract limits his number of suitors, and Fenech lists just the Cubs, Dodgers and Astros as potential trade partners, though all have some drawbacks. Los Angeles may look to address other needs than its rotation, while an Astros move for Verlander “would be out of their character.” Still, Fenech figures Houston will at least check in with Detroit about the former Cy Young Award winner.
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