- The Astros are essentially a lock for the postseason thanks to their big lead in the AL West, which allows the team to take a somewhat more measured approach to the deadline, GM Jeff Luhnow tells Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi. They’re even looking ahead to individualized needs against potential playoff opponents; as Luhnow said, “you really can start focusing on what does this team need to look like to face the Cleveland Indians in a seven-game series, to face the Boston Red Sox in a seven-game series, do we match up well.” While Houston is prepared to deal from its minor league depth to add at the deadline, Luhnow also sees no reason to abandon the franchise’s long-built plan for sustained success. “We want to win now, for sure, and we’re going to do whatever it takes to win now,” Luhnow said. “But at the same time, we’ve been building up all this currency, all these players in the pipeline so that we could be good for a long time….I certainly want it to be more than a three- or four-year run.”
Astros Rumors
Astros Holding Out For Top Starter?
The trade deadline chatter hasn’t really picked up yet, perhaps in large part owing to the tightly packed American League. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag recently took his weekly spin around the A.L., providing a few items of note. While there has been a bit of buzz around Justin Verlander, the Tigers haven’t asked him to provide a list of teams to which he’d permit a trade. The Astros, meanwhile, seem to be hoping for a chance at adding a difference-making starter, but don’t know whether such an arm will end up being made available. And the White Sox, unsurprisingly, are ready and willing to get deals done.
Braves Receiving Interest In Julio Teheran
With few controllable starters available at the non-waiver trade deadline, teams have been reaching out to the Braves to gauge the availability of right-hander Julio Teheran, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The Astros are one of multiple teams that has inquired, Heyman notes, and the Braves haven’t completely ruled out moving him prior to the deadline.
David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution adds more context to the story, noting that the Braves privately discussed the possibility of shopping Teheran this offseason, but were only going to put him on the market if they were able to land an arm such as Chris Sale, Chris Archer or Jose Quintana to take Teheran’s spot in the rotation. Atlanta was never able to pull off a trade for a front-line starter, and thus Teheran was retained to make the first start in the history of SunTrust Park.
That new park, of course, may have adversely impacted Teheran’s trade value. Atlanta’s new home has proven to be exceptionally hitter-friendly, and Teheran has been torched for a 7.58 ERA there, as compared to a 2.88 mark on the road. Of the 20 homers he’s yielded this year, 13 have come at home, despite the fact that he’s pitched four more innings on the road.
Attributing his struggles solely to the home park isn’t prudent, though, as Teheran has a 4.51 FIP and 4.49 xFIP away from SunTrust park, suggesting that much of that road split is a mirage. He’s seen his strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates all trend in the wrong direction this year, both at home and on the road. Teheran’s velocity has fallen a couple of miles per in recent years as well, and he’s currently sporting his worst swinging-strike and chase rates since 2012.
That said, it’s hard not to find Teheran’s contract highly appealing. He’s earning $6.3MM this season and is guaranteed $8MM in 2018 plus $11MM in 2019. The deal also carries a $12MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2020 season. All told, he’s guaranteed just $22.995MM through the end of the 2019 campaign (including the remainder of this year’s salary) and can be controlled through 2020 for $33.995MM. Even if Teheran is more of mid-rotation workhorse than a top-of-the-rotation arm, that’s a highly reasonable rate for a pitcher that has made at least 30 starts in each of the past four seasons with solid run-prevention numbers.
Astros Agree To Terms With First-Rounder J.B. Bukauskas
4:25pm: Bukauskas will get a $3.6MM bonus, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter), which lands just $11,800 over the 15th pick’s allotment.
10:56am: The Astros have agreed to terms with first-round pick J.B. Bukauskas, reports Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26 (on Twitter). The former UNC right-hander is in Houston to complete his physical and formally sign his contract.
Bukauskas was a top draft prospect out of high school back in 2014, though he fell to the 20th round after asking teams not to select him. The D-backs took a shot on swaying him anyhow, though he rather predictably honored his commitment to North Carolina. This time around, he entered the draft rated as the No. 6 overall prospect, per Baseball America. Meanwhile, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com ranked him seventh, while ESPN’s Keith Law rated him ninth and Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked him 12th.
Bukauskas is a bit undersized, as he’s listed at 6’0″ and 195 pounds, though scouting reports across the board give him credit for a plus fastball and slider combination. Baseball America, in fact, calls his slider “the nation’s best breaking pitch,” noting that it consistently receives 70-grade ratings on the 20-80 scale, with some scouts placing an 80 on the pitch. He also has a changeup that has, in the past rated as an above-average offering but was rarely used this past season with the Tar Heels. Callis and Mayo, like others, note that there’s concern that he could end up pitching out of the bullpen, though they add that if he does ultimately prove to be a reliever, Bukauskas has closer upside.
Astros Set To Activate Charlie Morton
- The Astros have successfully weathered a slew of rotation injuries of late; needless to say, though, the team will be glad to welcome back its missing arms. Righty Charlie Morton will be activated to start on Friday, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes, and he’ll be interesting to watch upon his return. Morton has a solid 4.06 ERA and even better peripherals, though it remains to be seen whether Houston will feel comfortable relying on him (among others) for a presumptive postseason staff. Fellow righty Collin McHugh is also making forward progress; Kaplan notes he’ll make a second rehab outing at Double-A. Meanwhile, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets, top lefty Dallas Keuchel may be closing in on his own rehab assignment.
David Paulino Receives 80-Game Suspension
Major League Baseball has announced an 80-game suspension without pay for Astros right-hander David Paulino, who tested positive for Boldenone, a performance-enhancing substance. It’s the first PED offense for Paulino, who won’t appeal the ban, tweets Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle. Paulino will miss the rest of the regular season and won’t be eligible to participate in the playoffs if Houston qualifies, which looks like a formality for a 54-27 club that leads the American League West by 13.5 games.
“We are disappointed in the news today regarding David Paulino,” general manager Jeff Luhnow said in a statement. “We hope this is a one-time incident and something David can learn from as he continues his career. The Astros will continue to fully support Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.”
The 23-year-old Paulino currently ranks as Baseball America’s 67th-best prospect, a slight fall from his 51st-place standing after the 2016 season. He debuted at the major league level last year, albeit with only seven innings of work, and racked up six starts this season prior to his suspension. Paulino managed just a 6.52 ERA and a 30.1 percent ground-ball rate in 29 innings this year, but he did post impressive strikeout and walk rates (10.55 K/9 and 2.17 BB/9), and he induced infield pop-ups at an above-average clip (11.9 percent).
While Paulino wouldn’t have factored into a semi-healthy Astros rotation come playoff time, his loss is a blow to their depth at the very least. Houston is currently without three-fifths of its rotation in Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh, all of whom have missed significant time this year because of injuries. Lance McCullers and Joe Musgrove have also spent time on the disabled list this season, thus creating opportunities for the likes of Paulino and Brad Peacock.
With Morton on his way back, Paulino likely would have been leaving Houston’s starting group soon, but he could have continued his development in the big league bullpen or in Triple-A Fresno’s rotation. Further, it’s possible that Paulino would have served as a trade chip by this month’s deadline. As one of Houston’s top prospects, the team perhaps could have used Paulino in a package to reel in a more established big leaguer.
Luhnow rightly called Paulino an “important piece” earlier this season, but his off-field troubles are undoubtedly frustrating to the club. Paulino has now been subjected to discipline in back-to-back years. When Paulino was at Double-A last summer, the Astros issued him a suspension for unknown reasons, though Luhnow did note that Paulino didn’t do “anything major.” That’s not the case this time, however, and his season is over as a result.
Draft Signings: 6/29/17
Let’s round up the latest significant draft signings:
- Both of the Blue Jays’ top picks are under contract, per a team announcement. Both Logan Warmoth and Nate Pearson will receive above-slot bonuses, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (on Twitter), though neither went much over. MLB.com’s Jim Callis tweets that Warmoth will receive $2,820,200 ($25K over slot), while Pearson gets $2,452,900 (that’s $150K over the value of the 28th pick). Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith has the story on the deal from the team’s perspective. Warmoth, taken 22nd overall, received top-20 billing from Baseball America and Fangraphs. ESPN.com’s Keith Law was even higher on the UNC shortstop, crediting him with a top-level hit tool, good speed, and a strong chance to stick at short in the long run. Similarly, Pearson drew a consensus as being a top-30-ish prospect, but earned a higher grade from one outlet. BA ranked him 13th, noting that the JuCo righty has made huge strides in developing his arsenal and controlling it.
- The Astros announced the signing of second-rounder Corbin Martin, a right-hander from Texas A&M. He’ll receive a $1MM bonus, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter), which lands a bit shy of the $1,178,600 allotment for the 56th overall selection. MLB.com was highest on Martin, ranking him 32nd, noting that some inconsistencies have clouded the status of a pitcher who has a promising array of pitches.
- Indians supplemental second-round pick Tyler Freeman, a high-school shortstop from California, will get the slot value of $816,500, Callis tweets. He cracked the top 100 on BA’s list. While he’s said not to possess loud tools, Freeman is credited as a well-rounded player with a sense for the game and quality makeup.
Pitching Injury Notes: Smyly, Weigel, Keuchel, Nats, Salazar, Hendricks, Finnegan
The Mariners got some unwelcome news about the status of rehabbing lefty Drew Smyly. As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, plans for Smyly to face live hitting were scuttled after the southpaw experienced some elbow discomfort. Pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre explains that Smyly has dealt with other such “episodes” while working back from a flexor strain, especially when throwing breaking pitches, so perhaps this could just be a minor blip. Still, he’s slated for a medical examination; at present, there’s no clear indication of what’ll come next. “Until the doctors check, and all that stuff subsides, you just can’t move forward,” explains Stottlemyre. “It’s hard to make a plan going forward until we know more.”
Clearly, Seattle’s deadline plans could be altered by Smyly’s progress (or lack thereof). If the team finds itself in a strong Wild Card position at the end of July, but doesn’t think it’ll get the rotation boost it needs, it’s at least possible to imagine a move to bolster the rotation. Here are some more notable injury situations from around the game:
- Young Braves hurler Patrick Weigel is headed for Tommy John surgery, per David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. That’s the result that was feared when it was learned that he had suffered a partial UCL tear. Soon to turn 23, Weigel had reached Triple-A in just his third professional season. He could’ve conceivably provided the Braves with a rotation option for 2018, so the loss should only increase the organization’s interest in adding a significant outside starter.
- It seems the Astros are wisely taking a measured approach with southpaw Dallas Keuchel, who is working back from a pinched nerve in his neck. As Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes, skipper A.J. Hinch acknowledges that the club is “just being conservative” by “methodically putting a few more challenges in front of him” to bring Keuchel along slowly. With Keuchel in need of at some rehab outings before returning to the MLB hill, it seems he won’t likely make it back until after the All-Star break. That timeline surely works just fine for the front-running Astros, who are as close to a postseason shoe-in as there can be at this stage of the season.
- The Nationals’ bullpen needs have long been a focus of the 2017 trade season. Just how many arms the Nats will go looking for could well depend in part upon the progress of several current pitchers. Per a club update, via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter), Sammy Solis appears to be making real strides after missing a significant stretch with elbow issues, as he was able to take the ball for Triple-A Syracuse. If the power lefty can return to health and to form, that’d be a significant boost. Meanwhile, Shawn Kelley (out with a trap strain) has resumed throwing — which is not yet the case for fellow righty Koda Glover (who is dealing with back issues).
- There’s some positive momentum for Indians righty Danny Salazar, as Jimmy Miller of the Akron Beacon Journal writes. Salazar says his shoulder feels good, and he’s now slated to begin a rehab assignment. The high-octane hurler, 27, could potentially re-take a spot in the rotation or provide Cleveland with another fascinating, multi-inning-capable bullpen arm.
- Likewise, the Cubs saw progress from righty Kyle Hendricks, as Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago tweets that he was able to throw (albeit only from 90 feet) without experiencing any issues in his hand. Hendricks has been dealing with tendon problems in his pitching hand, leading to a DL placement. Before going down with the injury, Hendricks had turned in eleven somewhat worrying starts. Expectations were high after he landed third in the 2016 Cy Young voting, but Hendricks has shown a significant velocity loss (over two miles per hour on his fastball) and a big drop in swinging-strike rate (from 10.0% to 7.3%). Getting him healthy and back to form would represent a big boost to the Cubs, though it’s not clear whether they’ll have a real read on his capacity before making deadline plans.
- While the Reds haven’t yet made a move, it seems likely that lefty Brandon Finnegan is heading back to the DL. Initial indications were that he had only experienced a triceps strain during his first start after rehabbing an injury to the teres major muscle in his shoulder. Instead, per manager Bryan Price (on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM, via Twitter), the injury was traced to that same muscle. While it’s said to be in a different part of the muscle, it nevertheless seems rather concerning that Finnegan is experiencing issues in that same narrow area. The broader prognosis remains unclear at this moment, though Price said he expects the southpaw to miss “at least … several weeks, if not longer.”
Draft Signings: 6/27/17
Here are the latest draft signings of note:
- The Astros have landed second-round pick Joe Perez, according to MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (via Twitter). He’ll take home a $1.6MM bonus that exceeds the 53rd overall pick’s slot value of $1.265MM. Perez is coming off of Tommy John surgery, but he has a big arm that led to top-100 grades from MLB.com and Baseball America. The righty looks like a possible future bullpen piece, but the Astros say they’ll give him a shot at developing first as a hitter. Per BA’s scouting report, he’s a question mark to stay at third but shows promising all-fields power. Perez, who forewent a scholarship at Miami to join the ’Stros, becomes the first of Houston’s top four picks to agree to terms.
- We previously covered the Brewers’ signing of second-rounder Caden Lemons, but his bonus information wasn’t available at that time. Per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link), the prep righty will receive $1.45MM — just shy of the $1,493,500 slot value of the 46th pick. While top selection Keston Hiura is already in agreement, the remainder of Milwaukee’s slate of draftees were held up a bit by the NCAA tournament.
Dallas Keuchel Likely Sidelined Until After All-Star Break
- Astros ace Dallas Keuchel isn’t likely to return from the disabled list until after the All-Star Break, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes. The left-hander was placed on the DL on June 8 due to neck discomfort, the second time Keuchel has been sidelined this season due to neck problems. The team was known to be taking a very conservative approach to Keuchel’s rehab, and he has yet to begin throwing off a mound, though he has doing some long-tossing at a 120-foot distance. As Kaplan notes, there isn’t any huge rush to get Keuchel back given the Astros’ big AL West lead, as the team obviously wants to ensure its star lefty is fully recovered and ready for the postseason push.
