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Latest On Ryan Pressly

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12:40pm: Per a report from Chandler Rome, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, the Tigers are also in the Pressly talks but it “may be unlikely” for the righty to approve a trade to Detroit.

9:19am: The Astros have been shopping right-hander Ryan Pressly throughout the winter, but those efforts didn’t gain much traction until recently. That’s understandable in the sense that the free-agent market for relievers was largely frozen until the past couple of weeks. Now, with free agent bullpen arms flying off the board, interest in Pressly has seemingly picked up. The Cubs, Blue Jays and one yet-unknown club out west have all shown serious interest in Pressly over the past 24 hours.

Pressly, however, has full no-trade protection by virtue of his 10-and-5 rights (ten years of major league service, five-plus years with his current team). He can nix any trade to a location he doesn’t want. That’s of extra note for Pressly as a Texas native who’s playing his home games a bit more than 200 miles south of Dallas, where he was born and raised. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports this morning that Pressly has informed the Astros that he’s disinclined to approve a trade that’d send him too far east or west.

That would seemingly rule out both the Jays and any club on or near the west coast. It’s not yet clear which club out west is eyeing Pressly, though the D-backs have been vocal about their desire to add a closer. The A’s, Giants and Angels aren’t necessarily in the market for an experienced ninth-inning arm specifically, but all three could use another high-leverage arm in general.

All of that could be moot, however, if Pressly is wary of straying toward either coast and prefers to remain in Texas or somewhere in the country’s heartland. That could potentially bode well for the Cubs, though Heyman adds that Pressly has not yet made a decision one way or another on whether he’d approve a move to Wrigley Field. One swaying factor, speculatively speaking, could be that the Cubs would almost certainly use Pressly as their closer. That’s a role he filled — and filled quite well — in Houston from 2020-23, when he saved 102 games and pitched to a 2.99 ERA with a huge 31.5% strikeout rate in 198 2/3 innings. He was bumped to a setup role in 2024 after the Astros’ signing of Josh Hader on a five-year, $95MM contract.

Pressly’s 2024 season was solid all around but not quite up to his (lofty) prior standards. He logged a 3.49 earned run average over 56 2/3 innings and posted a 23.8% strikeout rate that stood as his lowest mark since the 2016 season. His 7.4% walk rate was comfortably better than league average but was still his highest mark in four years. His average fastball sat at 93.8 mph, per Statcast, marking his lowest number in more than a decade. Still, the right-hander’s broader track record is excellent. And, with the Astros potentially reengaging with Alex Bregman, there could be extra motivation for Houston to shed some payroll.

It’s hard to envision any scenario where the Astros re-sign Bregman and also dip beneath the luxury tax threshold, but shedding Pressly’s $14MM salary would lessen the sting of exceeding the tax line for what would be a second straight season. Per RosterResource’s projections, Houston is currently about $3MM north of the $241MM threshold.

Report: Alex Bregman Has Received Multiple Offers Of At Least Five Years

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With the month of February now just a week away, Alex Bregman remains a free agent. That has led to speculation that he may have to pivot his focus and try to secure a short-term pact, but that doesn’t seem to have happened yet. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reports today that Bregman has received offers of five years or longer from at least three teams this offseason, including the Astros. It’s not specified which clubs made these offers or when.

Bregman came into the winter as one of the top free agents available. He has hit .260/.349/.449 over the past three years while also getting strong grades for his third base defense. There was a bit of concern in 2024, as he got out to a slow start, slashing just .216/.283/.294 through the end of April. He eventually corrected and finished the year with a .260/.315/.453 line but his 6.9% walk rate was a career low.

Despite a less-than-perfect walk year, Bregman still came into free agency with a strong profile and justification to secure a strong deal. MLBTR predicted him for a seven-year, $182MM pact. Many observers expected him to return to the Astros and various reports indicated that the club made him an offer of $156MM over six years. Bregman and his reps, however, were looking to get to the $200MM plateau.

Today’s report indicates that some other clubs may have been willing to get into somewhat similar range as the Astros. It isn’t known which clubs made these offers or exactly how much money was on the table, but Bregman has been connected to teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mets and Phillies throughout the offseason.

Though that points to a decent market, it seems none of them were quite strong enough to get Bregman to put pen to paper. Though the Astros seemed to blink in their staredown with Bregman by acquiring Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker, recent reporting has suggested the club has kept its offer on the table and is still somewhat open to a reunion. Such a scenario would involve Bregman returning to the hot corner, Paredes going to second base and Jose Altuve to left field.

Whether that will end up happening or not likely depend on the other offers and if any club is willing to budge. If they are all somewhat similar and no club meaningfully separates itself from the pack, perhaps Bregman will choose to remain with the only club he’s ever known.

It’s also possible that some of Bregman’s suitors are no longer interested, even if they may have made strong offers earlier in the winter. The Tigers signed Gleyber Torres, reducing their need for an infield addition somewhat. They have remained engaged with Bregman but have reportedly hit a standstill. The Red Sox would perhaps have to move Rafael Devers to first base to fit Bregman in, making things awkward. Second base is more open at the moment but they may prefer to leave that spot open for Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer or Vaughn Grissom. The Blue Jays added Anthony Santander recently, who isn’t an infielder but should make the team less desperate for an offensive upgrade. The Mets and Pete Alonso are seemingly playing hardball with each other but could still reunite, though the Jays seem to be somewhat involved there as well. The Phillies appear to have tried to trade Alec Bohm in conjunction with pursuing Bregman but never seemed to gain much traction there. The Cubs seemed to only be interested if Bregman were willing to pivot to a short-term pact. Jon Heyman of The New York Post says today that the Cubs are “believed” to be showing “significant interest” in Bregman alongside the Astros, though with the Red Sox and Tigers also involved.

Though the offers haven’t been strong enough for Bregman to sign anywhere, it’s perhaps understandable why he hasn’t done a short-term pivot. That’s a path that many other free agents have taken, including Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger last winter. But if Bregman has had somewhat decent offers in the five- or six-year range, perhaps he doesn’t feel the need to go that way just yet. Just over a week ago, Bregman’s agent Scott Boras said there interest on long-term deals has been strong enough that changing course wouldn’t be necessary, matching this week’s reporting.

Time will tell if Bregman circles back to Houston or ends up elsewhere. The Astros made him a qualifying offer at season’s end and would receive a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere, while the signing club would be subject to the associated penalties. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in just over two weeks.

Blue Jays Have Also Shown Interest In Ryan Pressly

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If the Astros trade Ryan Pressly, the Cubs appear the likeliest landing spot. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this evening that Chicago was nearing a deal for the veteran reliever. Multiple reports from the Houston beat indicated that Pressly has not agreed to waive his no-trade rights, however. It’s also not clear if the Cubs and Astros had agreed to a final trade package and were awaiting Pressly’s decision, or if the teams merely felt they were making progress in those conversations.

Chandler Rome, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that while the Cubs are serious suitors for the two-time All-Star, no deal is believed to be imminent. According to The Athletic, the Blue Jays and at least one mystery team from the West Coast have also expressed interest. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com similarly wrote this evening that the Astros have fielded interest from multiple clubs on Pressly.

In any case, the 36-year-old righty controls his destination. Pressly has full no-trade protection as a player with at least 10 years of MLB service and five-plus service years with his current team. He grew up in the Dallas area and has pitched in Houston since the 2018 trade deadline. His wife Katharine is a Houston native. It’s not out of the question that he and his family simply prefer to stay there.

Whether Pressly would waive his no-trade clause to join the Cubs, Blue Jays or anyone else remains to be seen. There is no definitive reporting that he is unwilling to move. All that is clear is that he has not approved a trade to this point.

This could be a key decision for Houston’s overall offseason. The Astros have an offer out to Alex Bregman. In recent days, they’ve resumed talks with their longtime third baseman. Bregman is still pursuing a long-term contract; Houston’s initial offer was reportedly for $156MM over six years. The Astros project around $3MM north of the base luxury tax threshold. Offloading a few million dollars could allow them to duck below the CBT line for the moment. Signing Bregman would undoubtedly push them back into tax territory, though that’s perhaps an easier sell for ownership than it would be to pay the CBT even if he walks.

Pressly combined for 110 appearances between 2023-24, which triggered a $14MM vesting option on his deal. That’s probably a little above market value but not dramatically so. José Leclerc and Andrew Kittredge each signed $10MM free agent contracts this winter. Blake Treinen, who is six months older than Pressly, landed two years at $11MM annually.

After serving as Houston’s closer between 2020-23, Pressly moved into a setup role last year. That was in response to their late strike to add Josh Hader on a five-year free agent deal. He had a solid season, working to a 3.49 earned run average through 56 2/3 frames. Pressly’s strikeout rate dropped to a league average 23.8% clip — his lowest mark since his 2018 breakout —  but he posted a solid 7.4% walk rate while picking up 25 holds.

The Cubs and Jays could each offer Pressly their closer role. Chicago has a few less experienced pitchers (e.g. Porter Hodge, Nate Pearson, Tyson Miller) who could compete for saves. Toronto has already added Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García and Nick Sandlin this offseason. That trio joins Chad Green and Erik Swanson in the high-leverage mix. Hoffman is probably the favorite for the ninth inning, but he has been a setup man for most of his career. He recorded 10 of his 12 career saves for the Phillies last season. Pressly saved at least 26 games in each of his three full seasons as Houston’s closer.

Astros Have Kept Offer Out To Bregman

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This afternoon provided a surprise when USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Astros were leaving the door open to bringing back Alex Bregman. It was generally expected that the Astros had moved on once they acquired Isaac Paredes and signed Christian Walker to play the corner infield spots.

However, it seems the Astros never fully closed the door on their longtime third baseman. Houston had reportedly made Bregman a six-year, $156MM offer before they landed Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker return. Bregman obviously did not accept, though it does not seem that the team has pulled the offer even after what seemed to a pivot to contingency plans.

Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that Houston’s offer “remains on the table.” Rome writes that pressure within the Astros’ clubhouse has contributed to the team reopening discussions with the two-time All-Star in recent days. It isn’t known if that means they’re open to pushing their offer beyond $156MM, or if they’re simply hoping that Bregman’s asking price will come down to their level now that he’s unsigned deep into January.

Nightengale suggested this afternoon that if the Astros managed to keep Bregman, they could slide Paredes to second base while bumping Jose Altuve to left field. Rome confirms that the team is indeed considering that scenario. While Altuve to the outfield doesn’t seem to be set in stone, Rome writes that Bregman would stick at third base if he signed back in Houston. They’d need to find somewhere else in the lineup for Paredes.

Money remains a stumbling block. The Astros exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. Rome reports that owner Jim Crane has been reluctant to do so for a second straight year. Houston already projects narrowly above the $241MM base threshold, with RosterResource calculating their CBT number around $244MM. The Astros could make a trade to dip below that mark. They’ve been working to offload most or all of the $14MM owed to setup man Ryan Pressly, though the veteran righty has full no-trade rights and could scuttle those plans. Mauricio Dubón ($5MM) and Chas McCormick ($3.4MM) are on manageable arbitration salaries and could be possible trade options if Houston can’t deal Pressly.

There’s essentially no way they’d get below the tax line if they re-sign Bregman. He’d very likely command more than $25MM annually. Even if they trade Pressly and decide to deal Paredes, who’ll play on a $6.625MM arbitration salary, they’d be above the line. That the Astros apparently still have an offer out to Bregman demonstrates that Crane isn’t firmly committed to staying below the tax threshold. The owner has said as much this offseason, though he has also been reluctant to approve long-term deals. Houston hasn’t signed a free agent contract longer than the five-year, $95MM Josh Hader deal from last winter since Crane purchased the franchise more than a decade ago.

The Tigers, Red Sox and Blue Jays have also been linked to Bregman. Talks between the infielder and Detroit were reportedly at a standstill as of Tuesday evening.

Cubs, Astros Have Discussed Ryan Pressly; Pitcher Has Not Waived No-Trade Clause

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4:46pm: Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that Pressly has not agreed to waive his no-trade clause to this point. According to Rome, while the Astros are shopping Pressly, a deal is not considered imminent. The veteran righty would obviously need to approve a trade for anything to get across the finish line.

4:36pm: The Cubs are “on the verge” of acquiring right-hander Ryan Pressly from the Astros, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Pressly has a full no-trade clause and will have to waive it for a deal to be finalized.

Chicago has been looking for another back-end reliever. Pressly has plenty of experience in the late innings. He worked as Houston’s closer between 2020-23. Pressly saved 12 games in the shortened season and recorded between 26 and 33 saves over the next three years. He didn’t allow an earned run average north of 3.58 in any of those seasons.

Houston displaced Pressly in the ninth inning when they signed Josh Hader. Pressly pitched well in a setup capacity this year, posting a 3.49 ERA through 56 2/3 innings. He triggered a $14MM vesting option for the 2025 season. That’s probably close to market value for one year of his services. It’s $4MM above what Andrew Kittredge and José Leclerc received as free agents, for instance. The Astros are narrowly above the luxury tax threshold, though, so they could look to offload payroll to duck below the tax line. Pressly would be their most obvious trade candidate if he were open to moving. He’s a Texas native who has spent nearly seven years with the Astros, however, so it’d be understandable if he’s reluctant to move.

Report: Astros Still Not Ruling Out Alex Bregman Reunion

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The Astros’ chances of retaining Alex Bregman seemingly went up in smoke when he declined their reported six-year, $156MM offer earlier this winter. Houston pivoted quickly, first trying to engineer a trade for Nolan Arenado, which the current Cardinals third baseman nixed by way of his no-trade clause. The ’Stros pivoted again, signing first baseman Christian Walker for three years and $60MM. In doing so, they pushed Isaac Paredes — acquired from the Cubs as part of the Kyle Tucker return — across the diamond to third base. Or, so it seemed.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Astros are still “keeping the door ajar” for Bregman. It’s a long-shot pairing in light of the new-look corner infield in Houston, but the team has at least considered a scenario where they’d move Paredes to second base and play Jose Altuve in left field, should Bregman ultimately return. It’s an out-of-the-box solution, but the Astros have been (unsuccessfully) hunting for outfielders in free agency and trade. Nightengale adds that the Astros “aren’t optimistic” about their chances, however, adding that Bregman presently has at least two serious offers in hand.

Beyond the roster considerations, there’s the financial aspect to consider. Owner Jim Crane has publicly stated that he has the “wherewithal” to match last year’s $244MM payroll and $262MM worth of luxury obligations, though the team’s actions this winter have suggested otherwise, to an extent. Houston traded its best player, Tucker, to the Cubs in exchange for Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top prospect/2024 first-rounder Cam Smith. They’ve also reportedly been shopping Ryan Pressly, who’s owed $14MM but has full no-trade protection.

That said, Crane suggested when making his comments about 2025 spending that the extent to which the club did or not spend would depend on the specific players available to them. Pushing to a $260MM CBT number again for a free agent who’d be new to the organization and doing so for a longtime cornerstone player whose entire career has been spent with the ’Stros are quite different. One trait Bregman has drawn consistent praise for both from the Astros and in reports citing anonymous coaches and executives around the league is his fiery leadership and clubhouse demeanor. The Astros are more familiar with that than any team, and logic dictates that they’d likely be most willing to pay a premium for it. Currently, RosterResource projects the Astros aout $3MM north of the $241MM luxury barrier. Signing Bregman would put them over with minimal chance of ducking back underneath.

A move to the outfield for Altuve would register as a major surprise, but it’s not exactly hard to see why Houston might ponder it. Altuve’s defensive grades have cratered in the decade since he won his lone career Gold Glove. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 in both of the past two seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average had him at -8 this past season. Altuve made only five errors on the season, but that seems largely due to his inability to get to balls he might’ve had a play on several years ago; Statcast graded Altuve’s range in just the third percentile this past season. His arm strength was similarly panned, landing in the seventh percentile.

There are other alignments that could be considered. The Red Sox, among other teams, have been rumored to view Bregman as a second base option. (Skipper Alex Cora recently spoke on the record about his belief that Bregman could be a plus defender there.) Houston could also leave Bregman and Altuve at their customary spots and move Paredes to left field. However, he’s notably slower than Altuve and has below-average arm strength himself. Altuve still has nearly average speed, and Houston’s left field is smaller than most thanks to the short left field porch at the newly renamed Daikin Park. The Astros have reportedly been in the market for corner outfield upgrades but have not yet found a deal to their liking.

Bregman has reportedly drawn interest from the Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays and to a lesser extent the Cubs, although Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently indicated he feels next year’s third baseman is “likely” already in the organization. At least to this point, Bregman hasn’t been open to the sort of short-term pacts to which many top free agents acquiesce late in the winter. As of this writing, it’s not clear whether Bregman has received any long-term offers other than the original six-year proposal from Houston. The Tigers have been cast as perhaps the other top landing spot, but talks between the two sides reportedly reached a “standstill” this week.

Pressly, Jansen, Robertson Among Cubs’ Bullpen Targets

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As the Cubs look to strengthen the back end of their bullpen, they’ve considered a lengthy list of names via both the trade market and free agency. Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that Chicago has some interest in Astros righty Ryan Pressly and that they’ve looked into a long list of free agents — Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Brooks Raley among them.

The Cubs recently finished runner-up to the Dodgers in their quest to sign Tanner Scott, putting forth a reported four-year, $66MM offer that broke all recent precedent for Chicago’s approach to bullpen acquisitions. The Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year guarantee or even an eight-figure salary to any individual reliever since signing Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Signing Scott would’ve marked a major paradigm shift for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer. That’s also true of free agent Carlos Estevez, to whom the Cubs have also been linked. Conversely, the list of considerations highlighted by Mooney and Sharma are more in line with the team’s prior approach to bullpen building.

Pressly stands as the most interesting name in many regards. A trade involving the longtime Houston stopper would have major ramifications for two clubs and ripple effects throughout the rest of the free-agent market. He’s owed $14MM this season in the final year of his contract but also wields a no-trade clause, allowing him to control his own fate.

If Pressly were amenable to a trade that’d send him to Wrigley Field, the Cubs would immediately have a new closer, while the Astros would dip back under the luxury tax threshold. Houston currently sits just $3MM over the line, per RosterResource’s estimate. Trading Pressly would put them $11MM under the threshold, perhaps giving the ’Stros the financial leeway to pursue an outfielder. They’re reportedly interested in Jurickson Profar, for instance.

The 36-year-old Pressly was the primary closer in Houston for four seasons, from 2020-23, before giving way to free-agent signee Josh Hader in 2024. Pressly moved into a setup role this past season and tallied 25 holds in addition to four saves. He pitched 56 2/3 innings with a solid 3.49 ERA, a 23.8% strikeout rate, a 7.4% walk rate, a 48.8% ground-ball rate and just 0.64 homers per nine innings.

All of those rate stats were better than league-average, but many still represent a step in the wrong direction for Pressly. Beginning with his 2018 breakout in Minnesota and stretching through the 2023 season, for instance, Pressly punched out a whopping 32.6% of his opponents with just a 6.4% walk rate. The uptick in walks this past season wasn’t necessarily glaring, but it’s fair to say Pressly isn’t missing bats anywhere close to where he did at his peak. A four-seamer that average 95.3 mph from ’18-’23 checked in at a 93.8 mph average in ’24, and his swinging-strike rate dipped from 16.6% (again, ’18-’23) to a strong but far less remarkable 12.6%. League-average this past season was 11.1%.

Payroll-wise, adding Pressly would bump the Cubs to around $194MM in 2025 payroll with about $212MM worth of luxury considerations. That’d leave them $29MM shy of this year’s $241MM tax threshold. The Cubs and Astros already got together on one blockbuster, sending Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cam Smith. One would presume that Pressly’s name at least came up in those talks, but a larger and more complex package shipping both Tucker and Pressly to Wrigley Field was obviously never reached.

The free agent candidates laid out by The Athletic all fit the Cubs’ typical preference for short-term acquisitions in the bullpen, but genuine pursuits of Jansen and/or Robertson would still mark a change of note. From 2020-24, the largest guarantee the Cubs gave to a reliever was Hector Neris’ $9MM deal last offseason. Either Jansen or Robertson would likely command an eight-figure guarantee. Jansen saved 27 games and posted a 3.29 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate in 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox this past season. Robertson notched a 3.00 earned run average in 72 innings with Texas, punching out one-third of opponents against a 9.1% walk rate.

The Cubs are plenty familiar with Robertson, of course. He signed a small one-year deal there prior to the 2022 season and largely revived his career at Wrigley Field. This time around, however, the circumstances would be different. Robertson inked an incentive-laden $3.5MM deal for one year in the 2021-22 offseason, as he’d yet to fully reestablish himself following Tommy John surgery while playing for the Phillies. He’s now coming off a trio of dominant seasons. With recent $10MM guarantees for both Jose Leclerc (A’s) and Andrew Kittredge (O’s), Robertson could well command a salary north of that sum. The Cubs’ offer to Scott and reported interest in Estevez show a willingness to spend that type of money on a reliever, though.

As for the others, they’re likely to come at a lesser rate. The Mets declined a net $7.5MM decision on Maton, opting for a $250K buyout over a $7.75MM option. He’s still coming off a nice year, however, having posted a 3.66 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 46.8% grounder rate in 64 frames. He finished particularly well after being traded from the Rays to the Mets in July. Stanek was another summer trade acquisition for the Mets; he posted a combined 4.88 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between Seattle and Queens. He whiffed 27.8% of opponents but issued walks at a 10.4% clip and was tagged for an average of 1.30 homers per nine innings.

Raley is on the mend from Tommy John surgery that was performed on May 29 of this past season. As such, the 36-year-old southpaw (37 in June) will be a midseason reinforcement wherever he signs — be it in Chicago or elsewhere. Raley was excellent from 2022-24 when healthy, tallying 115 1/3 frames of 2.58 ERA ball with a 27.3% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate.

Blue Jays, Astros Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar

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It’s been a quiet winter for Jurickson Profar thus far, but with fellow outfielders Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler O’Neill all off the board now, Profar stands as the top corner outfield bat on the market. The Blue Jays, who just signed Santander for five years, and the Astros are among the teams with interest in the switch-hitting Profar, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported on the MLB Network this morning (video link). The incumbent Padres have also been tied to Profar this winter and very clearly love him as a player and person, but it’s far from clear the  front office will have that kind of spending power. The Friars have reportedly been working to scale back payroll this winter, and that was before recent ownership tumult.

Profar, 32 next month, is fresh off a career year where he improved in just about every measurable category. His .280 average, .380 on-base percentage and .459 slugging percentage all ranked as career-best marks. The former top prospect made massive gains in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, all while posting his best walk rate (11.4%) since 2021 and his lowest strikeout rate (15.1%) since 2020. Profar has long had a plus eye and excellent bat-to-ball skills, but the contact he made was often lacking punch. That wasn’t at all the case in 2024, as he swatted a career-high 24 homers and tacked on 29 doubles in 158 games/668 plate appearances.

The fit with Toronto isn’t as clean with Santander now in the fold on a $92.5MM contract, but there’s still room to move things around. Playing Santander regularly in right field — or having Santander and George Springer split time between right field and designated hitter — would open up left field for Profar (who could see occasional DH time himself). That’d likely come at the expense of playing time for Nathan Lukes and Will Wagner, but Profar would be a pronounced upgrade over both if he can replicate or even approximate last year’s breakout showing.

Payroll-wise, the Jays’ signing of Santander pushed them up into the second tier of luxury penalization. They very narrowly dipped under the tax line in 2024, resetting their penalty level in the process, meaning they’d be on the hook for a 32% for any dollars allocated to Profar (or another free agent). They’re currently projected by RosterResource at $237MM of Opening Day payroll, which would be a club record.

Turning to Houston, their outfield is a clear weak spot on the roster — at least on paper — following the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Houston will have Jake Meyer in center field, where he’ll be flanked by a combination of Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubon. Other options on the 40-man roster include Kenedy Corona, Pedro Leon and Cooper Hummel. Clearly, an upgrade would be a worthwhile pursuit.

Ownership’s wherewithal to make such an addition is an open question. Jim Crane has said he’s open to paying the luxury tax for a second straight season — and just the second time in his ownership tenure — but there’s been mixed messaging with regard to his actions. On the one hand, Houston offered Alex Bregman a reported six-year, $156MM contract. That’s a legitimate offer, and the corresponding $26MM average annual value would’ve sent the ’Stros careening into the middle tiers of luxury penalty.

On the other hand, trading Tucker, even with an extension unlikely, represents a step in the opposite direction. Granted, that swap helped to pave the way for the signing of Christian Walker on a three-year, $60MM deal. But, it can be argued that if Crane were truly amenable to stepping over that tax threshold, he could’ve fit Tucker and Walker onto the roster. The team has also been shopping reliever Ryan Pressly throughout the offseason, and general manager Dana Brown even kicked the winter off by speaking of a need to “get creative” with payroll. None of those facts portend a willingness to exceed the tax barrier — at least not by any notable amount.

As things stand, RosterResource has the Astros over the tax threshold, but only by a narrow margin of about $3MM. A trade of Pressly or another player — e.g. McCormick, Dubon, Victor Caratini — could drop them back under that line, but it’d be tough to shoehorn Profar in under the barrier without finding a trade partner for Pressly and another player. If Crane is willing to take a small CBT hit, knowing dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero will help them reset their penalty level next offseason, then moving Pressly on its own might be enough to make things line up.

Time will tell how the market for Profar plays out, but he’s now the most-productive left fielder still sitting on the market. He’s reportedly been seeking a three-year pact. It’s unlikely that’d come with the type of AAV secured by Hernandez ($22MM) or Santander ($18.5MM), but something in the range of O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract wouldn’t have seemed too outlandish coming into the offseason. With many teams already having filled their roster needs, demand might not be sufficient to get Profar to such heights, but a multi-year deal and eight-figure AAV still seem plenty feasible.

J.P. France Targeting July Return From Shoulder Surgery

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Astros righty J.P. France underwent surgery to repair a capsule tear in his shoulder last July. There wasn’t much initial specificity about the timeline beyond the fact that it would end his 2024. France tells Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that the procedure came with a 12-14 month recovery window.

He’s now at roughly the halfway point. France tells McTaggart that he hasn’t encountered any setbacks thus far and hopes he’ll be on track for the earlier end of the rehab window. “I feel like the way it’s going right now, hopefully I’m looking more about the 12-month mark, so that will be me [back] in July. Hopefully that’s the case,” France said. “There’s a fine line because it’s a shoulder surgery and you’re not trying to rush it back, either.” He tells McTaggart that he began a throwing program last month and will progress to working from 90 feet this week.

Even the earlier end of France’s timeline means he’s likely to be shelved until around the All-Star Break. He figures to land on the 60-day injured list if the team needs to opens a 40-man roster spot in Spring Training. In an ideal scenario, France could bolster the team’s rotation depth as they’re weighing whether to buy at the trade deadline.

France was a capable back-end starter during his 2023 rookie season. He overcame a middling 17.4% strikeout rate to post a 3.83 earned run average through 136 1/3 innings. Opponents teed off during his five starts early in the ’24 campaign. France posted a 7.46 ERA over 25 1/3 innings before Houston optioned him to Triple-A. Between that and the injury, he has dropped down the rotation depth chart.

Cristian Javier and France are locks to open the season on the IL. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are more borderline candidates to return by Opening Day. The Astros are set to begin the year with a front four of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Swingman Hayden Wesneski would probably be the fifth starter if Garcia and McCullers are unavailable. Colton Gordon and Ryan Gusto, neither of whom has pitched in the majors, are also on the 40-man roster.

Astros, Framber Valdez Avoid Arbitration

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The Astros and left-hander Framber Valdez have agreed to an $18MM salary to avoid arbitration, per a report from Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The deal comes in just $200K over Valdez’s $17.8MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and represents a $5.9MM raise over Valdez’s 2024 salary. Valdez is represented by Octagon.

The 31-year-old southpaw was dominant as ever for Houston last season. In 28 starts for the club, Valdez posted an excellent 2.91 ERA in 176 1/3 innings of work with a 3.25 FIP while striking out 24% of opponents and walking just 7.8%. Perhaps most impressively, Valdez generated an excellent 60.6% groundball rate that led all qualified major league hurlers this year. While Valdez was snubbed from making his third career All-Star appearance, the lefty finished in the top ten of AL Cy Young award voting for the third consecutive season and even earned some down-ballot consideration for the AL MVP award. That strong performance earned Valdez a deal that comes in slightly above projections ahead for his final season before he hits free agency in the fall.

If there was a downside to Valdez’s strong 2024 campaign, it was his health early in the year. The lefty missed most of April due to a bout of elbow soreness that sent him to the shelf after just two starts. While even the mildest elbow issues can cause alarm among fans due to their association with Tommy John surgery, Valdez evidently wasn’t slowed down significantly by the issue. While he made just 28 starts this year as opposed to 31 the prior two seasons, he was healthy and effective as always after returning to the mound on April 28 and showed no signs of losing steam as the year dragged on. In fact, it was just the opposite. While much of the Astros rotation was plagued with injury issues throughout the summer as they struggled to come back from an early-season deficit in the standings, Valdez was utterly dominant down the stretch with a 1.96 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star break that helped Houston pull away from the Mariners in the AL West late in the second half.

In 2025, Valdez figures to be the club’s undisputed ace with future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander having departed for San Francisco in free agency. He’ll lead a rotation that also figures to include Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, and Hayden Wesneski to open the season, with additional help from Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. expected later in the year. The losses of Verlander and outfielder Kyle Tucker along with the all-but-official departure of longtime third baseman Alex Bregman and the possibility of trading veteran reliever Ryan Pressly leave the Astros looking quite different as compared to the club that won the World Series in 2022, and with Valdez just one year from free agency things could look even more different this time next year.

Earlier this winter, there were questions over whether Valdez would remain in Houston for the 2025 or if the club would deal him ahead of his final year of team control as they had Tucker. Those rumors have died down at this point, however, and the club now plans to keep him in the fold for the coming season. It’s unclear how seriously the Astros will pursue a reunion with Valdez when he reaches free agency next season; at one point the sides engaged in extension talks but the same could be said for both Bregman and Tucker, both of whom will be playing elsewhere next season. In the meantime, the Astros have brought in Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to help bolster the offense, as they try to get back to the ALCS in 2025 after failing to make it there last year for the first time since 2016.

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