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Brown: Astros May Have To Get “Creative” With Payroll

By Steve Adams | October 3, 2024 at 1:43pm CDT

The Astros’ incredible run of seven consecutive runs to the American League Championship Series ended yesterday when they ran into a scorching-hot Tigers club helmed by former Houston skipper A.J. Hinch. Although the ’Stros had their shortest season since 2016 and have a number of high-profile free agents coming off the books, general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada both made clear in addressing the team’s beat that there’s no plan to step back. Houston will unsurprisingly take aim at another deep postseason run next year, although the looming offseason could be one punctuated by some tighter-than-usual financial parameters.

“I think we’re going to have to make some wise decisions as to – are there younger players that we can call up and put in certain roles to maybe save some money here and … allocate that money to other places,” Brown said Thursday (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “…We may have to get a little bit creative.”

That’s an ominous sentiment for any fan to hear from a team’s GM at the onset of the offseason. A look at Houston’s payroll, however, reveals a similarly ominous setup. The Astros opened the 2024 season with a payroll around $235MM and finished out the year north of $244MM, per RosterResource. They already have $147MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books (including dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero). That doesn’t include a 10-player arbitration class — headlined by Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker — projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost more than $57MM. Add in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Astros are sitting around the $212MM mark next year before making a single addition.

In the absence of any notable free agent departures, perhaps that’d be workable, but the Astros will see franchise cornerstone Alex Bregman reach the open market for the first time in his career next month. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander is also a free agent, as is deadline pickup Yusei Kikuchi, who thrived in the Houston rotation down the stretch. Relievers Caleb Ferguson, Hector Neris and Kendall Graveman are free agents as well, as are role players Jason Heyward and Ben Gamel.

Bregman, of course, is the most notable name of the bunch. Espada plainly stated that he hopes Bregman will return and heaped praise onto the former No. 2 overall pick for not only his on-field contributions but the manner in which he’s been the heart and soul of the team’s clubhouse.

“I’ve talked a lot about how much I love the individual, the human,” Espada said of Bregman (X link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). “I think what makes this team really good is the character of the people in clubhouse. He’s one of the best I’ve ever been around. I would love to have Bregman playing third base for us next year.”

Whether that’s feasible remains an open question. Teammate Jose Altuve has stumped for Bregman’s return in recent days — even before the team’s elimination — and Brown has said since being hired in the 2022-23 offseason that he hopes to keep Bregman in Houston for the entirety of his career. That talk has yet to manifest in the form of a contract, although the Astros are reportedly expected to put forth a formal offer soon. Brown doubled down on his hope of keeping Bregman and plans to talk with agent Scott Boras about a reunion (X link via McTaggart), but there are reasons to be skeptical of a deal coming to fruition.

The Astros, under owner Jim Crane, have never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal — nor have they given out a contract worth a larger guarantee than Jose Altuve’s most recent $151MM extension. Josh Hader’s five-year contract is the lengthiest and largest in guaranteed money that Houston has given to a free agent under current ownership. Bregman stands as one of the top-five free agents on this season’s market, arguably the No. 2 or 3 name in this year’s class behind Juan Soto.

Hitting the market in advance of his age-31 season, Bregman will have a case for a six- or possibly seven-year deal. He’s a year younger than fellow third baseman Matt Chapman, who just inked a six-year, $151MM extension to stay in San Francisco. Seven-year guarantees for position players beginning in their age-31 season or later are rare, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, though Marcus Semien (seven years, $175MM with the Rangers) stands as a recent prominent example.

Even if Bregman is limited to “only” six years, he’ll surely seek a larger guarantee than Chapman just received last month. Chapman didn’t have the benefit of open-market bidding, and Bregman, even if he can’t match Chapman’s wizardry with the glove, is a quality defender who has been the more consistent offensive player of the pair. In addition to the Astros, clubs like the Yankees, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Royals and Nationals could be in the market for third base help. Unexpected suitors frequently emerge in pursuit of top-tier free agents, too.

Given Bregman’s tenure with the team and value on and off the field, it’s certainly feasible that Crane could push beyond his previous comfort levels to keep him in the fold. In that case, Bregman would likely push Houston close to $240MM of payroll obligations — or at least north of $230MM on a backloaded deal. Creatively structuring the contract, however, wouldn’t impact the luxury tax in the same way it does bottom-line payroll. Luxury tax is calculated based on contracts’ average annual value; re-signing Bregman would push the Astros into tax territory for a second straight season and only the third time under Crane’s ownership.

Brown left open the door for virtually any possibility, telling reporters the Astros “are not taking anything off the table in terms of what we’ll do” (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they both re-sign Bregman and add the bullpen pieces he also said will be a focus this winter (X link via McTaggart). Houston could always turn to the trade market to drop some payroll from other areas of the roster, but they surely won’t consider moving Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker or Valdez, and the contracts of Josh Hader and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t going to draw interest from other clubs. Ryan Pressly’s remaining one year and $14MM could be movable, but flipping him would only further the need to add bullpen arms.

One area the Astros don’t seem likely to spend heavily is in the rotation. Brown called next year’s staff “stacked.” The Astros will bring back Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Injured righties McCullers and Luis Garcia will hopefully be ready for the start of the season after missing all of 2024. Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy (if he’s tendered a contract) and J.P. France could all be midseason reinforcements. Prospect Ryan Gusto, 25, had a nice season in Triple-A (3.70 ERA, 22.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 148 1/3 innings).

It’s a group that, as of right now, doesn’t include Verlander. Brown touched on the subject of the three-time Cy Young winner (X link via McTaggart), noting that it “sounds like he wants to come back” but that he’ll “have some discussions with our front office … as to what’s best for the team.” Verlander spent much of the 2024 season on the injured list due to shoulder and neck injuries. He struggled badly enough down the stretch in his final six starts (8.89 ERA) that he wasn’t included on the team’s roster for the Wild Card Series against Detroit. With the Astros facing mounting payroll issues and already possessing a fairly deep stock of arms, a reunion may not be in the cards.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Alex Bregman Justin Verlander

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Justin Verlander Planning To Pitch In 2025

By Darragh McDonald | October 3, 2024 at 9:47am CDT

It was a frustrating season for Justin Verlander but he doesn’t plan on it being his last. He told reporters, including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, that he plans on pitching again in 2025. “I think I do feel like I have a lot more to give pitching-wise,” Verlander said. “This year was a tough year. Learned a lot from it.”

Verlander was only able to make 17 starts and log 90 1/3 innings this year. He started the year on the injured list due to some shoulder inflammation, though he was reinstated in the middle of April. After 10 starts with a 3.95 ERA and 21.3% strikeout rate, he went back on the IL due to neck discomfort, an injury that perhaps he never really recovered from. He was reinstated from the IL in August but opined last month that he may have returned too quickly. He reiterated that sentiment this week.

“I’ve talked to you guys about how I was feeling coming back and how I needed to push the issue a bit. Kind of a weird injury in the neck. Tried as best I could to get out there and be an asset to help this team in October but wasn’t able to do it.”

Verlander made seven more starts in August and September but his strikeout rate was just 14.6% in that time as he allowed 30 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings. That gave him an 8.10 ERA in that stretch and bumped his season-long ERA to 5.48, the highest of his career apart from a two-start debut back in 2005. With those poor results, the Astros decided to leave him off their postseason roster. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown started the club’s two games against the Tigers but Houston lost both, ending their season prior to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.

“Obviously, wasn’t pitching well enough to be a part of this series,” Verlander said. “But having an offseason to kind of get things right, I definitely feel like I want to continue to pitch and compete. And I’m not ready to step away yet.”

Despite the rough campaign, Verlander is determined to keep going, which isn’t surprising. Way back in 2018, he told Jon Morosi of MLB.com that he wanted to pitch until he was 45 if he could. He is still a few years away from that marker, as he is set to turn 42 in February.

Perhaps the health issues give him an explanation for his rough results, but increased injury woes are to be expected for a player pushing his career to great lengths. Keeping his body in a place where he can maximize his results will be a challenge but one that Verlander is surely going to tackle as best as he can.

It wasn’t too long ago that Verlander was still posting elite results. Though he missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, he had an incredible bounce back in 2022. At the age of 39 and after missing almost two full years, he tossed 175 innings over 28 starts with a 1.75 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate.

He won that year’s American League Cy Young award and went into free agency on a strong note. He was able to secure a two-year deal with a $43.33MM annual salary from the Mets, as well as a conditional player option for 2025. The first year of the deal went fine for Verlander personally, though the Mets fell out of contention and dealt him back to Houston at the deadline. He finished 2023 with a 3.22 ERA over 27 starts, despite his strikeout rate falling to 21.5%.

As mentioned, the results backed up here in 2024. The injuries preventing him from unlocking the $35MM player option, as he needed to toss 140 innings this year but finished well short of that. That means he is slated to return to the open market in a few weeks.

He will naturally have significantly less earning power than he did two years ago, both on account of his increased age and worse platform season, but there should still be a notable deal for him out there. Zack Greinke got $8.5MM from the Royals for 2023, his age-39 season. He secured that on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which he tossed 137 innings with a 3.68 ERA but a 12.5% strikeout rate. Lance Lynn had an ERA of 5.73 in 2023 but was still able to secure an $11MM guarantee from the Cardinals for 2024, his age-37 season. Corey Kluber got a $10MM guarantee from the Red Sox for 2023, his age-37 season, despite plenty of notable health concerns in prior seasons.

Verlander is going into his age-42 season and will be older than all of those pitchers were when those deals were signed, but he also has a more impressive overall track record and plenty of recent success he can point to. For a closer age comparison, Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates going into 2023, his age-43 season. He got that after tossing 124 1/3 innings with a 4.27 ERA the year prior. That’s a better platform year than what Verlander is current taking to free agency but Hill’s overall résumé can’t match up to Verlander’s.

In short, there will be opportunities available to Verlander, the question will be where. He has spent most of his recent career with the Astros, with that brief stint with the Mets the notable exception. Perhaps he and the club will reunite again, as they could use some rotation help. As of now, their 2025 starting pitching group projects to include Valdez, Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. They could fill out that group with Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. or J.P. France, though those pitchers are currently unknown quantities after missing most or all of 2024 while recovering from surgeries.

Per RosterResource, the Astros project to be have a spending gap of more than $100MM between 2024 and 2025, both in terms of pure payroll and their competitive balance tax number. However, that gap is actually narrower when considering the full picture. The arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz have the Astros slated to pay over $58MM to a group headlined by Valdez and Kyle Tucker. A couple of non-tenders will knock that down a bit, but the club also plans to discuss a significant contract with impending free agent Alex Bregman. They also have a hole at first base that will need to be addressed somehow.

Given that the club has traded for Verlander a couple of times and also re-signed him in free agency twice, it’s probably fair to expect that they will work something out regardless of where the budget goes in the months to come, though it’s also possible they decide it’s time to go in a different direction. Wherever he ends up, Verlander will be looking to add to a body of work that already has him as a lock for the Hall of Fame. He has 262 wins, the most among active pitchers, while his 3,416 strikeouts are 10th on the all-time list.

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Houston Astros Justin Verlander

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Astros Expected To Present Offer To Alex Bregman In Near Future

By Anthony Franco | October 2, 2024 at 9:27pm CDT

Alex Bregman may have played his final game as an Astro on Wednesday. Detroit’s 5-2 win completed a sweep that ended Houston’s run of seven consecutive trips at least as far as the American League Championship Series. That’ll push the Astros into offseason mode, where the focus will be on their star third baseman.

Alden González of ESPN writes that the Astros are expected to present a formal contract proposal to Bregman in the near future. While Houston has yet to put an official offer on the table, general manager Dana Brown has said on a few occasions they’d discuss the contract once the season ended. Brown again expressed optimism about the situation. “When you get down to it, I think he wants to stay here. I think we want him to stay here,” the GM told González earlier this week. “And it’s just a matter of coming up with some type of an agreement.”

Coming to an agreement is naturally much easier said than done with a free agent of this caliber. Bregman is arguably the second-best position player who’ll hit the market. Unless the Scott Boras client takes a significant hometown discount, retaining him would probably require the biggest investment in franchise history. Houston’s organizational high was the five-year, $151MM extension for Jose Altuve signed in Spring Training 2018.

That $151MM sum is coincidentally an exact match for the extension which Matt Chapman signed with the Giants last month. (Chapman’s deal was over six years, so the average annual value was lower than that of the Altuve contract.) Bregman is a year younger than Chapman and a more consistent offensive player. Bregman will decline a qualifying offer if he gets to free agency. That’ll attach him to draft compensation. That wouldn’t have been the case for Chapman, who could not have received a QO from San Francisco. Still, the one-year gap in age and the safer offensive profile make it likely that Bregman’s earning power is above the Chapman price.

The career-long Astro hasn’t spoken much about his contract status. Bregman deferred offseason questions while the Astros were still alive, stating that he was focused on the team’s performance. He limited his comments mostly to generalities in the immediate aftermath of being eliminated. Asked whether he wanted to return to Houston, Bregman said he “(hopes) so but (will) let Scott and the team handle that” (X link via Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle). He subsequently took to Twitter to thank the city.

A few of Bregman’s teammates were effusive in their praise for the two-time All-Star. Altuve, himself a Boras Corporation client, was particularly strong about the Astros’ need to keep him. “In my mind there is not a chance this is his last game (as an Astro),” Altuve said (relayed on X by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). “He gave a lot to this organization so it’s time for us as an organization to pay him back and make him stay here.” Altuve added that he planned to say as much personally to owner Jim Crane.

Ultimately, whether the Astros re-sign Bregman depends on Crane’s willingness to make a huge free agent investment. The Astros were content to let George Springer and Carlos Correa walk in previous offseasons. They’re down to their final seasons of arbitration control over Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, both of whom are trending to nine-figure deals. Tucker is on pace to exceed $200MM and could push into the $300MM range with a great walk year.

While Crane has generally been averse to long-term deals, he hasn’t been shy about investing in the team overall. Houston is finishing this year with an approximate $244MM player payroll, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $262MM in luxury tax obligations, putting them into the second tier of penalization.

RosterResource calculates their guaranteed commitments for next season around $133MM. Tucker and Valdez headline one of the priciest arbitration classes in the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Houston’s arbitration group to cost around $58MM. Trades or non-tenders of José Urquidy and Chas McCormick could knock a few million from the ledger, but the Astros will go into the offseason with roughly $185MM in internal commitments.

Beyond the uncertainty at third base, Houston will need to look at the rotation and at first base. The latter was a huge issue all season. Houston’s rotation settled in later in the year, but they’ll see Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi hit free agency. Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and hopeful injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. make for a talented group. Injuries seriously tested the depth before they stabilized things with the Kikuchi pickup at the deadline, though, so Houston is likely to bring in some kind of starting pitching help.

The Astros don’t have an obvious in-house replacement at third base. Shay Whitcomb and Zach Dezenzo took a few at-bats this season, but they’re unproven at the MLB level. 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews could be an answer down the line. He only has 12 games of Triple-A experience thus far. Assuming the Diamondbacks pick up their option on Eugenio Suárez, there aren’t any clear regulars available at the position in free agency aside from Bregman.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Alex Bregman

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Justin Verlander Not On Astros’ Wild Card Roster

By Steve Adams | October 1, 2024 at 10:16am CDT

The Astros announced their Wild Card Series roster this morning, and it does not include struggling veteran Justin Verlander. Houston is carrying a slate of 15 position players, including three catchers, and 11 pitchers for their date with the upstart Tigers.

Verlander, 41, missed a substantial portion of the season due to shoulder and neck injuries. Houston reinstated him from the injured list in late August after an absence of more than two months owing to said neck issues, and while he was solid in his return effort (two runs in five innings versus the Red Sox), his season quickly snowballed thereafter. The three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer was torched for a catastrophic 8.89 ERA over his final six starts, which included individual games that saw him yield four, five, six and eight runs. Manager Joe Espada tells the Astros beat that the conversation with Verlander was “very easy,” crediting him for being “a true pro” about the decision (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).

One notable return to the lineup, however, is Yordan Alvarez. The Houston slugger has been out of action for more than a week due to a sprained knee, but he’s in the lineup hitting second and serving as Houston’s designated hitter. Espada tells the Astros beat that Alvarez is not 100% and isn’t likely to run at full speed or slide (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Still, Alvarez’s game-changing power and general excellence at the plate — he hit .308/.392/.567 with 35 homers in 147 games — are enough that the ’Stros will live with those shortcomings to get his bat into the order.

The Astros are sending Framber Valdez to the mound to start Game 1 opposite Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. They’ve yet to announce the second and third starters for the potential three-game set. Starters Yusei Kikuchi, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are all on the playoff roster, as are relievers Bryan Abreu, Caleb Ferguson, Josh Hader, Bryan King, Hector Neris and Ryan Pressly.

On the position player side of things, the ’Stros are going with catchers Victor Caratini, Yainer Diaz and Cesar Salazar; infielders Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Zach Dezenzo, Mauricio Dubon, Grae Kessinger, Jeremy Pena and Jon Singleton; and outfielders Jason Heyward, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Kyle Tucker. Alvarez, listed as an outfielder, seems quite likely to serve as the DH for this series at least, given the physical limitations outlined by Espada.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Justin Verlander Yordan Alvarez

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AL West Notes: Alvarez, McCormick, Sborz, Drury

By Mark Polishuk | September 29, 2024 at 8:31pm CDT

Yordan Alvarez’s status is the biggest question mark facing the Astros as the postseason begins, but manager Joe Espada said Alvarez will take batting practice tomorrow.  “That’s a really good sign.  Just the fact that he’s able to hit and rotate and do stuff that a couple days ago I thought he wasn’t going to be able to do in a matter of days,” Espada told reporters, including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle.

Alvarez hasn’t played since suffering a knee sprain while sliding on September 22, and it seems possible that the Astros might not tip their hand about his availability until Tuesday morning, when they have to release their rosters for their AL Wild Card Series with the Tigers.  Waiting until the relative last minute makes it harder for the Tigers to prepare, and it also gives Alvarez and the Astros as much time as possible to evaluate the star slugger’s knee health.

Outfielder Chas McCormick might be another late roster decision, though MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart writes (X link) that McCormick took live batting practice today and is set for another live BP session tomorrow.  McCormick has been sidelined since September 10 due to a fracture in his right hand, but has been able to take part in other baseball activities over the past week.

More from the AL West…

  • Recurring shoulder problems sent Josh Sborz to the injured list four different times this season, and limited the Rangers reliever to only 17 games and 16 1/3 innings.  Sborz told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News that he is going to consult Dr. Neal ElAttrache about the problem, and whether or not surgery could possibly be required.  “For me, not having any understanding of it is what’s killing me the most,” Sborz said.  “You get hurt, you want to understand it so you can mitigate the risk of it coming back.  I’d like to get clarity, but the crappy thing about shoulders is there isn’t a lot of clarity.”  Surgery and a lengthy recovery could turn Sborz into a non-tender candidate for the Rangers as he enters his second year of arbitration eligibility, which would be a tough outcome for a pitcher who was a key part of the Texas bullpen during the 2023 postseason.  Sborz earned $1.025MM this season, and is due just a minimal raise because of all the time spent on the IL.
  • Brandon Drury hit only .169/.242/.228 over 360 plate appearances for the Angels this season, with a 34 wRC+ that was by far the worst of any player in the majors with at least 350 PA.  Migraines and some nagging injuries played a role in these struggles, but Drury told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that some swing changes last offseason might’ve been the biggest culprit, as his attempts to add exit velocity backfired badly.  It all added up to a rough platform year as Drury enters free agency, and the 32-year-old might have to settle for either a minor league contract or a small guaranteed deal heading into his 11th MLB season.  Assuming Drury figures things out with his offseason prep, there’s seemingly some good bounce-back potential, as Drury hit a very solid .263/.313/.493 over 1179 PA from 2021-23.
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Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Notes Texas Rangers Brandon Drury Chas McCormick Josh Sborz Yordan Alvarez

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Astros Select Ryan Gusto

By Nick Deeds | September 29, 2024 at 11:15am CDT

The Astros announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Gusto. Gusto will make his big league debut in today’s regular season finale, starting this afternoon’s game against the Guardians. To make room for Gusto on the 40-man and active rosters, outfielder Ben Gamel was transferred to the 60-day IL while right-hander Shawn Dubin was optioned to the minor leagues.

Gusto, 25, was Houston’s 11th-round pick in the 2019 draft. He’s enjoyed something of a breakout over the past two seasons, as he impressed in 61 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level last year with a 2.93 ERA and a 24.9% strikeout rate in his first taste of action at the level. That earned him a promotion to the Triple-A level to start the 2024 season, and while he struggled badly in his first taste of Pacific Coast League action this year (8.03 ERA in his first two months) he’s turned things around a big way since then. In 108 innings of work since the start of June, Gusto has dominated opponents with a 2.08 ERA and 23.2% strikeout rate while walking just 6.4% of opponents.

Now, Gusto will get the opportunity to show off what he can do against big league hitters. With both Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi ticketed for free agency this winter, it’s easy to imagine Gusto working his way into consideration for the club’s rotation mix next year as one of the club’s few upper-level arms who have not yet been integrated into the big league rotation. The club figures to have Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arrighetti as rotation options headed into next year with plenty of other players due back from the IL sometime next season but Gusto could be an important depth piece for the club come Spring Training, particularly if the club doesn’t make additions to the rotation over the winter.

As for Gamel, the move to place the 32-year-old on the 60-day IL is largely procedural. The outfielder was already on the shelf due to a fractured fibula and considered likely to miss the entire postseason, though today’s roster move confirms that he won’t play again this year. Gamel hit a decent .247/.384/.333 with the Mets and Astros this year and figures to enter free agency this winter as an interesting bench option for clubs in need of outfield depth.

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Houston Astros Transactions Ben Gamel Ryan Gusto Shawn Dubin

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AL West Notes: Astros, Pivetta, Jung, Mariners, Martinez

By Mark Polishuk | September 28, 2024 at 8:37am CDT

The Astros had a “very high” amount of interest in Nick Pivetta prior to the trade deadline, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports.  No deal was worked out between Houston and Boston, naturally, as the Red Sox were still in contention and opted against moving Pivetta or any other impending free agents.  The Astros instead pivoted to landing Yusei Kikuchi from the Blue Jays in what was arguably the most impactful trade of deadline season, as Kikuchi’s dominance dominance since coming to Houston has been a key factor in the Astros’ run to the AL West crown.

Pivetta made his final start of the 2024 campaign yesterday, and the right-hander finishes his eighth MLB season with a 4.14 ERA over 145 2/3 innings, as well as very strong strikeout (28.9%) and walk (6.1) rates.  Pivetta’s success was limited by a propensity for allowing hard contact and a lot of home runs, but all in all, he has made a solid case for himself as he enters free agency in advance of his age-32 season.  On paper, the Astros’ mix of younger arms and veteran starters returning from injury should help the team make up for the possible departures of Kikuchi and Justin Verlander in free agency, yet the “you can never have enough pitching” cliche is a persuasive counter-argument.  Bolstering the group with a mid-tier option like Pivetta could be an attractive option to the Astros this winter.

Some other items from the AL West…

  • A CT scan on Josh Jung’s surgically-repaired right wrist revealed no structural damage, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News).  Jung missed most of the season after undergoing the surgery in early April, and was still bothered by some discomfort in his wrist after returning to the field in late July.  The Rangers ended Jung’s season with an IL placement earlier this week, and Bochy said that the third baseman’s shutdown period will involve “complete rest for a couple of weeks and then we’ll test it and see where he’s at.”  Jung hit only .248/.278/.367 in 169 plate appearances following his surgery.
  • The Mariners’ offense has been one of the best in baseball since Edgar Martinez assumed hitting coach duties on August 23, yet it isn’t clear if Martinez will be back in the job next season.  The Seattle Times’ Adam Jude writes that the club has already started looking for a new hitting coach, though the M’s would seemingly love having Martinez return, if he is willing to take on the daily grind of a coaching role over a full season.  The possibility exists that the Mariners could both hire a new top hitting coach and still retain Martinez, as Jude suggests that Martinez could stay on as a coach for just home games, in order to cut down on the travel.
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Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Notes Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Edgar Martinez Josh Jung Nick Pivetta

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Marwin González Retires

By Darragh McDonald | September 26, 2024 at 2:05pm CDT

Former big league player Marwin González announced he is retiring, through a press release from the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball, the club he’s played with for the past two years. Yahoo Japan had reported on his retirement plans prior to the official announcement.

“After two amazing years in Japan, it’s time for me to say goodbye,” González says in his statement. “I’m incredibly grateful to my teammates, coaches, and fans for welcoming me with open arms. Despite the language barrier, we formed a bond with ease, making every moment on the field special. Playing here has been a life-changing experience, especially getting to share it with my family. Japan will always hold a special place in our hearts. I’m filled with gratitude for the opportunity, the memories, and the friendships made along the way. Thank you for welcoming me into your world and for the endless support. You have all my respect. Arigatou gozaimasu.”

Marwin Gonzalez | Erik Williams-USA TODAY SportsGonzález, now 35, got his professional start when the Cubs signed him as an international amateur out of Venezuela and he made his minor league debut in 2006. In the 2011 Rule 5 draft, the Astros had the first pick since they were rebuilding at that time and lost 106 games that year. They used that first pick to take Rhiner Cruz from the Mets but also apparently had their eye on González. With the 23rd pick of the draft, the Red Sox took González and promptly flipped him to the Astros for Marco Duarte.

The second of those pickups ended up being far more impactful for the franchise, as Cruz tossed just 76 1/3 innings for the Astros, posting a 5.31 earned run average over the 2012 and 2013 campaigns before going into journeyman mode for the rest of his career.

González would eventually become a solid multi-positional piece for the Astros, though not right away. In 441 plate appearances over 2012 and 2013, he hit just .227/.266/.323. That production translated to a 59 wRC+, indicating he was 41% below league average. The Astros didn’t seem to mind much as they were still quite bad at that time, losing 107 and 111 games in those two seasons respectively. González was at least able to provide them defensively versatility, spending time at second base, third base and shortstop.

He was able to break out in 2014, hitting .277/.327/.400 for a wRC+ of 110. He also added first base and outfield to his defensive repertoire that year. He would continue to produce in roughly similar fashion in following seasons as the Astros emerged from their rebuild and became the perennial powerhouse that they still are today.

From 2014 to 2018, González got into 643 games for the Astros and stepped to the plate 2,265 times. He slashed .271/.328/.438 in that time for a 111 wRC+ while bouncing all around the diamond, playing everywhere except the battery.

He also got into 30 postseason games in that time, including 18 as part of the 2017 club’s World Series run, though that title is now mired in controversy with the revelation of Houston’s cheating scandal. Data from the scandal points to González as one of the biggest users of the trashcan-banging scheme. His 144 wRC+ and 4.4 wins above replacement from FanGraphs that year are both easily the bests of his career, as he otherwise never topped 111 wRC+ or 1.8 fWAR. Though he later apologized for the team’s actions, the first position player on the club to do so.

He reached free agency after 2018 and signed a two-year, $21MM deal with the Twins going into 2019. His bat dipped a bit in his first year in Minnesota, at least relative to the league. His .264/.322/.414 batting line was fairly similar to his previous five years, but 2019 was the “juiced ball” season with huge offensive numbers around the league, so González’s production led to a 94 wRC+. It fell more significantly in the shortened 2020 campaign, with González slashing .211/.286/.320.

Going into 2021, the Red Sox gave him a $3MM deal, hoping that his most recent performance was just a small sample blip in the odd circumstances of the pandemic. Unfortunately, that bet didn’t pan out, as González hit .202/.281/.285 before being released in August. He then returned to the Astros but hit just .176/.222/.441 in 14 games for them down the stretch. He signed a minor league deal with the Yankees going into 2022 and got into 86 games for that club, but hit .185/.255/.321 in those.

After three consecutive rough seasons in the majors, he headed overseas. He signed with the Buffaloes going into 2023 on a deal that paid him $1.5MM. He hit .217/.266/.385 in 84 games for that club last year. He returned for 2024 but dealt with injuries and only got into 23 games, per Yakyu Cosmopolitan on X.

González will primarily be remembered for that strong run with the Astros, which will provide fond memories to some fans while others will dismiss his accomplishments due to his involvement in the electronic sign-stealing scheme.

Regardless of how one feels about that, the record books have him with 3,882 plate appearances in 1,139 major league games. He collected 888 hits, including 183 doubles and 107 home runs. He scored 420 runs and drove in 415. He slashed .252/.310/.399 for a wRC+ of 94. FanGraphs considered him to have been worth 10.9 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference credits him with 14.3 WAR. B-Ref lists his major league earnings at just over $37MM, with González likely getting that up to around $40MM with the money he made in Japan. MLBTR salutes him on his unique career and wishes him the best in whatever comes next.

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Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Nippon Professional Baseball Marwin Gonzalez Retirement

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Astros Notes: Bregman, Alvarez, McCormick

By Nick Deeds | September 25, 2024 at 3:05pm CDT

Last week, Astros GM Dana Brown revealed that he hopes to talk about a new contract with third baseman Alex Bregman prior to the franchise third baseman hitting the open market this November. At the time of that interview, Brown indicated that he and Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras, had briefly talked regarding Bregman’s future and agreed to wait to begin any sort of contract discussions until “things are over.” Now, Bregman himself has chimed in and expressed a similar desire to put his impending free agency out of mind until the 2024 season has wrapped up.

“I haven’t really thought about it too much, honestly,” Bregman told reporters yesterday when asked about the possibility of leaving Houston, as relayed by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “Just focused on trying to win a game and get this division clinched… Just been really focused on winning.”

Waiting until the end of the postseason (or for the Astros to be eliminated) before engaging in talks regarding Bregman’s future in Houston comes as something of a surprise, particularly given Brown’s long-standing commitment to talking with the third baseman and his representation before he hits free agency. With that being said, it’s not necessarily a shock from the player’s perspective that he would prefer to focus on the upcoming playoff run before turning to contract negotiations.

Generally, it’s extremely rare for players to re-up with their current club this close to free agency, particularly when it comes to stars of Bregman’s caliber. It does happen on occasion, though, as it did when the Mets retained closer Edwin Diaz on a record-breaking contract just days before free agency opened during the 2022-23 offseason. That Bregman is represented by the Boras Corporation, which has generally advised its clients to establish their values on the open market, could be another potential roadblock to a deal coming together before he hits free agency. Of course, it must be noted that Boras clients do sign extensions with their clubs on occasion; Bregman himself did so earlier in his career, and fellow third baseman Matt Chapman inked a long-term extension with the Giants earlier this month despite a return to free agency being just two months away at that point.

While Bregman’s uncertain future looms over the club in the longer term, a much more immediate concern is the status of star slugger Yordan Alvarez with the playoffs just around the corner. Alvarez exited the club’s game on Sunday due to a right knee sprain, but seemed somewhat optimistic after speaking to reporters about the issue yesterday (X video link courtesy of KHOU11’s Luis Ortiz). Alvarez said that while he’s had an easier time walking in the days since his exit, he still has to wait for the inflammation in his knee to go down before he can return to playing. That will leave him out of action for the club’s final series of the season against Guardians, as manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Kawahara) earlier today.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros would have Alvarez take the remainder of the regular season off, given his importance to the club’s hopes of making noise in the postseason. After all, Houston clinched their fourth consecutive AL West title last night with a win over the Mariners, and it is no longer possible for them to catch either the Guardians or the eventual AL East champion in order to earn a bye through the upcoming Wild Card Series. That makes the final few games of the regular season largely meaningless for the club, offering them little incentive to rush Alvarez back and potentially worsen his injury woes.

It’s unclear at this point whether or not Alvarez will be ready to return to action in time for the Wild Card series, but even if he doesn’t it’s possible he’ll be available in later postseason rounds should the Astros continue to advance. His regular season comes to a close with a career-high 147 games under his belt and a typically excellent slash line of .308/.392/.567 with a wRC+ of 167 and 35 homers in 635 trips to the plate.

It’s a similar story for outfielder Chas McCormick, who has been on the injured list due to a fractured right hand for just over two weeks now. As relayed by Kawahara, Espada told reporters that McCormick is “moving in the right direction” and “looking pretty good” despite the fact that he won’t be joining the club for its final regular season games in Cleveland. The 29-year-old has resumed baseball activities, including reps in the batting cage and drills in the outfield, and could still be an option for the Astros in next week’s Wild Card Series. McCormick had a disappointing regular season where he hit just .211/.271/.306 (66 wRC+), but he was putting together something of a hot streak in the days prior to his injury as he went 10 for his last 24 with a double, a homer, and a walk in his final eight games of the regular season.

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Houston Astros Notes Alex Bregman Chas McCormick Yordan Alvarez

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AL West Notes: Alvarez, Santos, Scherzer, Gamel

By Mark Polishuk | September 22, 2024 at 6:33pm CDT

Yordan Alvarez left today’s 9-8 Astros loss to the Angels due to a right knee contusion, and manager Joe Espada said after the game (to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and other reporters) that the slugger is “pretty sore” and will undergo testing.  While sliding into second base during a third-inning double, Alvarez banged his knee on the ground and had to be replaced by pinch-runner Mauricio Dubon.

Knee problems have bothered Alvarez for much of his career, and he had arthroscopic surgeries on both of his knees back in 2020.  The Astros have primarily used Alvarez as a DH in a nod to these knee issues, and while there isn’t yet any indication that today’s injury is anything more than a bruise, it certainly isn’t a good sign to see one of Houston’s top hitters suddenly facing a health concern just a week away from the playoffs.  Alvarez is enjoying another tremendous season, with a 35 homers and a .305/.309/.564 slash line in a career-high 636 plate appearances entering today’s action.

More from around the AL West…

  • Gregory Santos could be activated off the Mariners’ 15-day injured list within the next couple of days, the Seattle Times’ Adam Jude reports (via X).  Between a season-opening lat strain and then a bout of biceps inflammation that has kept him sidelined since July 31, Santos has appeared in only six games for Seattle this year, delivering a 6.75 ERA in 5 1/3 innings of work.  Santos has also tossed 5 1/3 innings during his six Triple-A rehab outings, with a 1.69 ERA but also with more walks (seven) than strikeouts (six).  Acquired from the White Sox in a notable February trade, Santos hasn’t done much in his first season with the Mariners, but there’s a chance for some late heroics if he can return in time to help the M’s sneak into a playoff berth.
  • Speaking of injury-plagued seasons, Max Scherzer’s 2024 campaign officially ended when a hamstring strain sent him to the Rangers’ 15-day injured list yesterday.  Limited to a career-low 43 1/3 innings in 2024, Scherzer has already stated that he wants to return for an 18th big league season, and he told MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry (X link) and other reporters today that he is open to returning to Texas.  Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, Dane Dunning, and Cody Bradford are all lined up as rotation locks or candidates for the Rangers next season, so on paper, there might not be room for a reunion with Scherzer even on a one-year deal.  That said, there’s also enough uncertainty within that projected depth chart that Texas might want still seek out more arms, and a pitcher with Scherzer’s track record still has plenty of upside even at age 40.
  • Ben Gamel was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week due to a fractured fibula, and in his weekly appearance on the Astros’ pregame radio show, GM Dana Brown confirmed that Gamel will “most likely” not be available for the postseason.  Between Gamel’s injury, Chas McCormick’s fractured hand, and the new uncertainty about Alvarez’s status, Houston’s outfield is suddenly facing depth issues as the playoffs approach.
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Houston Astros Notes Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Ben Gamel Gregory Santos Max Scherzer Yordan Alvarez

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