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Fallout Notes After Gerrit Cole Signing: Blue Jays, Angels, Pettitte, Dodgers, Bumgarner

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Much will come to light in the coming days now that the Yankees have officially given Gerrit Cole the largest deal in league history for a pitcher – but even now, mere hours from the revelation, the news is starting to sink in. The rest of the pitching market could unstick rather quickly, and the Blue Jays are having to factor in their new reality of having to face Cole four or five times a year for the next decade, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. Of course, what better way for Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and friends to push themselves to reach their massive potentials than by facing off with the best of the best. Of greater concern for Toronto is who will take the mound on their side in 2020. With the biggest names now off the board, interest will pick up for the next tier of free agent starters, guys like Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, in whom Toronto has shown interest. Those who missed out on Cole may up the ante for the next round, however, putting the Blue Jays’ realistic options more in the field of Tanner Roark, Rick Porcello, or Wade Miley. They could even lend a helping hand to the Yankees by taking back J.A. Happ if a prospect(s) came along with him. Let’s see what else folks are saying here in the wee hours of life in our bleak new post-Cole-sweepstakes reality…

  • The winners and losers of Cole’s mega contract are fairly obvious, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal makes the rounds anyway, starting with the Yankees – the biggest winners here (besides Cole and maybe Scott Boras) for finally reeling in their “white whale.” The Angels come away from the Cole saga disappointed, but it’s not all bad for the Halos. They have more need than could have been filled by Cole alone. As tantalizing a talent Cole is, they may be better off spreading their money around. Now that the Giants took Zack Cozart’s deal off their hands, they might have enough resources to buy a supporting cast for Mike Trout.
  • It’s easy to view the Yankees’ winning bid as a harkening back to the days of New York as the evil empire, but the reality is actually much more frightening, per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. He writes, “The Yankees are well-run, well-heeled and well-schooled in the art of reeling in the big fish.” True enough: this was no impulsive spending spree. The Yankees, like much of the league, have curbed their shopping addictions and learned to spend wisely. As a result, they should enter 2020 as favorites to win the American League. Oddly, for years it was expected that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s free agency would wake the dormant goliaths from their winter slumber, but it turned out to be Cole who not only made the notoriously judicious Andrew Friedman plead his case for the Dodgers, but who prompted the Yankees to shake off the rust and woo their western rival’s star player like the old days.
  • Speaking of: Andy Pettitte played a role in evangelizing on behalf of New York’s lifestyle benefits. He encouraged Cole about playing in New York as a benefit for his peace of mind, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Pettitte’s point was that Cole could focus himself on the task of winning titles, as the playoffs should be an annual guarantee (or at least strong possibility). Of course, the Dodgers and Astros could have made the same argument about their squads.
  • The Dodgers, it’s worth noting, made a real push for Cole. Among 324 million other reasons, however, Cole came away from his meeting with New York impressed with new pitching coach Matt Blake, who appealed to Cole’s interest in the intellectual side of the game, noted Carig. Of course, Cole also grew up a Yankees fan, which might have tipped the scale in the Yankees’ favor in a way that the Dodgers simply couldn’t answer. Now that the dust has settled, the Dodgers are moving on to the goal of convincing Madison Bumgarner to make the heel turn and join an already strong rotation in Chavez Ravine, tweets Rosenthal.

FA Rumors: Ozuna, Braves, J. Castro, Stammen, Peraza, Grandy

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The Braves are interested in free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. This isn’t the first connection between the sides, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last month that the Braves were one of the clubs in on Ozuna. Now, though, it seems the Braves are willing to aggressively pursue the 29-year-old qualifying offer recipient. In the event third baseman Josh Donaldson leaves Atlanta for another team, the Braves would regard Ozuna as a viable fallback option, Morosi suggests. MLBTR predicts Ozuna will reel in a three-year, $45MM guarantee, and if he lands anywhere near that neighborhood, he should fall well short of Donaldson’s next contract. That said, replacing Donaldson’s bat with Ozuna’s would still leave a sizable hole at third base for the Braves.

Here’s the latest on several other free agents…

  • The Angels, Astros, and Rangers are among the organizations with interest in backstop Jason Castro, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). With Yasmani Grandal and Travis d’Arnaud off the market, the 32-year-old Castro could be the best catcher left on the board. The pitch-framing savant’s coming off a strong season in Minnesota, where he batted .232/.332/.435 in 275 plate appearances and earned positive grades in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.
  • Several teams appear to be in the market for reliever Craig Stammen. The right-hander’s most recent team, the Padres, as well as the Astros, Diamondbacks, Reds, White Sox, Blue Jays and Cardinals have all expressed interest, per Morosi (Twitter links). Stammen, whom MLBTR projects for a two-year, $10MM guarantee, has put together a strong career divided between Washington and San Diego. The 35-year-old logged a 3.29 ERA with 8.01 K/9, 1.65 BB/9 and a 50.8 percent groundball rate in 82 innings last season as a Padre.
  • The Reds are one of the teams with interest in Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama, president of baseball operations Dick Williams revealed (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Clubs have until Dec. 19 to sign Akiyama, who had an impressive run with the Seibu Lions from 2011-19. It’s unclear what a potential Reds-Akiyama union would mean for Nick Senzel, their starting center fielder last season. Senzel could perhaps move to the corner outfield, which does look like a need area for the Reds.
  • The Cardinals are interested in re-signing backup catcher Matt Wieters, according to general manager Michael Girsch (via Goold). Whether it’s Wieters or someone else, the team seems intent on adding a veteran to play behind Yadier Molina. Wieters could wind up in Oakland if he doesn’t go back to St. Louis, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Athletics have shown interest in the 33-year-old to back up Sean Murphy. This is the second straight offseason in which Wieters has landed on the A’s radar.
  • The Orioles and Indians are two of the four teams that have shown interest in infielder Jose Peraza, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Reds non-tendered Peraza last week on the heels of an unproductive season, but he’s only a year removed from a respectable showing. The 25-year-old’s also controllable via arbitration through 2022.
  • Although he hopes to play next season, there has been little interest in outfielder Curtis Granderson, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The soon-to-be 39-year-old Granderson is a revered clubhouse presence who has enjoyed an outstanding career, but he’s a free agent at an inopportune time. Granderson struggled to a .183/.281/.356 line with minus-1.4 fWAR in 363 plate trips with the Marlins last season.

Report: Yankees “Actively” Trying To Trade J.A. Happ

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DECEMBER 10: The Blue Jays have explored the possibility of a reunion with Happ, Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports (Twitter links). The Brewers are said to be among the National League clubs with some level of interest.

DECEMBER 9: Twelve months ago, the Yankees made veteran left-hander J.A. Happ one of their key offseason signings. After a solid 2018 divided between the Blue Jays and Yankees, New York re-upped Happ to a two-year, $34MM contract. Now, the club is “actively” seeking a taker on the trade market for the 37-year-old Happ, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports.

The fact that the Yankees want to get out of the Happ deal isn’t particularly surprising, considering he’s slated to count $17MM against the luxury tax next season. If the Yankees succeed in signing right-hander Gerrit Cole, the No. 1 free agent on the board and someone who has a shot at a $300MM-plus contract, moving some portion of Happ’s money could help them avoid the highest level of the luxury tax ($248MM). As things stand, it seems probable they’ll blow past the first level of $208MM and likely surpass the second penalty of $228MM, Sherman notes.

In moving Happ, the Yankees would obviously be selling low. While Happ has long been a quality starter in the majors, things didn’t go well last season. Even though Happ did close on a good note during the final month of the regular campaign, he still ended the year with a subpar 4.91 ERA/5.22 FIP and 7.81 K/9 against 2.73 BB/9 over 161 1/3 innings. Going forward, Happ’s contract includes a $17MM vesting option for 2021 if he totals 165 innings or 27 starts next year. With those factors in mind, the Yankees don’t figure to have an easy time finding someone to take Happ off their hands.

Blue Jays Looking At Encarnacion, Smoak, Tsutsugo

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The Blue Jays are weighing a pair of familiar names for their first base/DH vacancy, as Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter link) reports that Edwin Encarnacion and Justin Smoak are “getting consideration” from the club.  The Jays also continue to be “intrigued” by Japanese free agent Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, though it “certainly doesn’t seem like they’re close on anything” with the slugger.

A fractured right wrist and a strained oblique limited Encarnacion to only 109 games and 486 plate appearances in 2019, his lowest totals in either category since the 2010 season.  When Encarnacion was healthy, however, he still wielded a formidable bat, hitting .244/.344/.531 with 34 homers for the Mariners and Yankees.  Encarnacion turns 37 in January and would likely be used mostly as a DH in Toronto, owing to both his age, the Rogers Centre’s artificial surface, and the Jays’ desire to see what they have in first baseman Rowdy Tellez.

With a market likely limited to American League teams and a relative lack of DH openings among those teams, Encarnacion could likely be had on a one-year deal, which is surely attractive to a rebuilding Jays team.  Bringing Encarnacion back would also undoubtedly be well-received by Toronto’s fans, as Encarnacion was a very popular figure while hitting 239 homers (the third-highest total in club history) for the Jays from 2009-16.

Smoak was another fan favorite for his five solid seasons with the Jays, most notably his 38-homer outburst in 2017.  Despite being perhaps the unluckiest hitter in baseball in 2019, Smoak still managed a slightly above-average (101 wRC+ and OPS+) offensive showing of .208/.342/.406 with 22 homers over 500 PA.  We haven’t heard much news on the 33-year-old Smoak this winter, though there was some indication after the season that the Blue Jays were thinking about a potential reunion as they weighed their first base options.

What could hurt both Encarnacion and Smoak, however, is that they are only first basemen, whereas GM Ross Atkins has a stated preference for first base “alternatives that are more flexible, can play other positions as well.”  Tsutsugo has an advantage in this regard, as he has primarily played outfield for the last several seasons for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars while also having some first base and third base experience in his past.  While Tsutsugo isn’t considered to be particularly adept defensively at any position, the Blue Jays might not mind since he’d be slated for a good chunk of DH time anyway.

The 28-year-old Tsutsugo has an impressive .285/.382/.528 slash line and 205 home runs over exactly 4000 PA during his 10 seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Major League teams have until December 19 to negotiate a contract with Tsutsugo, and clubs will then have to pay an additional posting fee (as determined by the size of the contract) to the BayStars under the MLB/NPB posting system.

Blue Jays Notes: Ryu, Roark, Gibson, Gausman

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Free agent left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu “is emerging as one of the Blue Jays’ prime targets” in the team’s wide-ranging search for pitching, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  With other major pitchers like Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler already off the board, however, the Jays will face a lot of competition to land Ryu, particularly from teams that come up short on signing Gerrit Cole or Madison Bumgarner.  Should the Dodgers fail to sign Cole, Davidi notes, Los Angeles would seem like a prime candidate to pursue re-signing a known quantity in Ryu — indeed, we’ve already heard reports that the Dodgers have Ryu in their sights.

“Right now, the Blue Jays seem determined to not block themselves out of a possible run at Ryu by doing something else,” Davidi writes in a separate piece.  Aside from the acquisition of Chase Anderson from the Brewers, however, the Jays haven’t done much to upgrade a rotation that was the team’s chief offseason priority.  It could be that the Jays’ deliberate methods of pursuing and evaluating every possible arm on the market are leaving them behind other teams who make a more direct push for a specific pitcher at the top of their list.  In the view of one agent, talks with the Blue Jays “are 90 per cent due diligence that doesn’t go anywhere.”

To this end, Davidi wonders if the Jays are really willing to spend “outside their comfort zone” to sign Ryu if he is their top choice, since if not, missing out on Ryu could also in Toronto missing out on several other pitchers who could sign elsewhere in the interim.  For instance, Davidi notes that “one path the Blue Jays are particularly keen on” would see Ryu and Tanner Roark both sign with the Jays, after the Dodgers leave the Ryu sweepstakes due to a Cole signing.  If this is the case, I’d argue there’s no reason the Jays couldn’t go out of their way to sign Roark now, as he wouldn’t require nearly the price tag of the top pitchers on the free agent market.  (MLBTR projected Roark for a two-year, $18MM deal, and in fact predicted he’d end up signing with the Jays.)  Toronto is nowhere near any kind of payroll crunch, given the team’s lack of financial commitments both in 2020 and in future seasons.

That said, the Blue Jays have done more than just talk, as the club made multiple contract offers to Kyle Gibson, as manager Charlie Montoyo told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters.  The right-hander ended up going to the Rangers on a three-year, $28MM deal.  “You hate to lose guys like Gibson.  I was there when we made the offers and they were pretty good offers, just somebody else made a better offer,” Montoyo said.

Kevin Gausman is another free agent hurler who doesn’t appear to be coming to Toronto.  Davidi reports that the Jays had interest in the recently non-tendered righty, but Gausman is likely going to sign elsewhere this week.

AL Rumors: Yanks, Gardner, Dellin, Rays, A’s, Hill, Shaw, Jays, BoSox

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Multiple teams are showing interest in free-agent outfielder Brett Gardner on a multiyear contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. However, Gardner continues to prefer re-signing with the Yankees, according to Heyman, who adds that the two sides are “still talking.” Indeed, as of a few days, Gardner and the Yankees were continuing to negotiate a new contract. Should they reach an agreement, the 36-year-old Gardner would continue as the longest-tenured player on the Yankees’ roster. Until then, he’ll remain as arguably the most appealing center field-capable player on a market which is weak in that regard.

  • Sticking with the Yankees, they’ve “engaged” with another of their longtime contributors, free-agent reliever Dellin Betances, Jack Curry of the YES Network tweets. But so have one of their division rivals, the Rays. Wherever Betances ends up, it’s “likely” he’ll sign a one-year contract in an effort to rebuild his value, per Curry. Although the 31-year-old Betances is one of the game’s most successful relievers in recent memory, injuries to the right-hander’s shoulder, lat and Achilles prevented him from making any meaningful contributions in 2019. Nevertheless, MLBTR expects Betances to land a $7MM payday over one year (with the Rays).
  • The Athletics are showing interest in Royals southpaw Tim Hill, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. This isn’t the first trade chatter we’ve heard on the 29-year-old, who turned in 39 2/3 innings of 3.63 ERA ball last year. Why the interest from AL contenders in a player that most fans have never heard of? Hill didn’t carry overwhelming overall K/BB numbers (39:13), but did generate a healthy 29.2% K rate against righties while delivering an excellent 57.3% groundball rate. That combination of tools is all the more interesting given the soon-to-be-minted three-batter minimum rule.
  • Free-agent infielder Travis Shaw, on the market since the Brewers let him go at the non-tender deadline a week ago, has garnered interest from the Blue Jays, Jon Morosi of MLB.com relays. Additionally, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com relays that the third baseman/second baseman has expressed a willingness to return to the Red Sox, his first MLB team, though it’s unclear if they’re open to a reunion. Shaw, whom the Red Sox traded to the Brewers in December 2017, had a pair of highly productive years in Milwaukee before his numbers fell off a cliff this past season. That caused the Brewers to move on from Shaw, leaving the 29-year-old as a buy-low candidate this winter.

White Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers, Twins Among Runners-Up For Jordan Lyles

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Before Jordan Lyles signed his two-year, $16MM deal to join the Texas Rangers rotation, there was no shortage of interest in the big righty. Though we don’t know which (if any) of these teams made official offers, we do know that the White Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers and Twins were among the teams with interest, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Without financial specifics, it’s presumptuous to assume much in regards to the interest level of these four clubs, but the size of the contract inked by Lyles at least hints at a low-scale bidding war for the back-end rotation arm.

The Brewers interest is not surprising, given they acquired Lyles around the deadline in each of the past two seasons and he pitched to a 2.45 ERA (4.42 FIP) to close out 2019. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel points out that the Brewers have now lost the bidding on each of their free agent targets thus far (except Justin Grimm!), suggesting either limited payroll flexibility or disciplined judiciousness on the part of GM David Stearns. Of course, Lyles signed for more than most would have guessed, and Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas signed for a combined 8-years, $137MM, a stratum the Brewers were hardly expected to reach. On the plus side, should the Rangers scuffle and Brewers stay in the race, we could see the rare baseball trade turkey, when a team successfully strikes for the same player at the deadline for three consecutive seasons.

The Twins and White Sox are two of the more eager starting pitching hunters this offseason, so their inclusion on this list is no surprise either. Both teams are likely to sign a couple of veteran free agents before the winter is out. As for the Blue Jays, they have less urgency given their timeline, though Lyles certainly fits the mold of the type of free agent they are likely to target.

Atkins On Blue Jays’ Offseason Approach

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Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins chatted with reporters yesterday about his club’s place in the offseason transactional carousel, as Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic (subscription link) was among those to cover.

Atkins emphasized that the organization has been “aggressive” on the free agent market, especially with regard to starting pitching. While there isn’t a deal to show for it just yet, there’s obviously ample time remaining and a slew of appealing options still on the market.

What of the top options available? “There’s not a free agent that we haven’t touched base with,” he said. It’s tough to see the Toronto organization as a serious player for any of this winter’s super-premium free agents, but Atkins certainly suggested that the front office has at least seen cause to check in on all the possibilities. Whether or not it’ll happen is far from clear — the guess here is it won’t — -but Atkins says the Blue Jays have the capacity to go into nine-figure territory for the right player.

It’s still anyone’s guess which arms the Jays will come away with. But Atkins did strongly suggest the team is likelier to make significant moves via free agency than trade. He expressed a disinclination to part with youthful “players that we’re really excited about” in order to acquire a compelling new MLB hurler.

One possibility: Hyun-Jin Ryu. We haven’t heard much about where the market is headed for the standout southpaw, but Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that the Jays are “in” on him. Just how to interpret that isn’t clear, particularly in light of the Atkins declaration that the team has cast an exceedingly wide net, but it sounds as if there’s at least some real interest on the part of the Toronto organization.

There’s still ample opportunity left for the Jays on the market. And the team is offering notable opportunity for free agents — a selling point in and of itself for certain hurlers. Atkins said that the Jays don’t feel fully committed to any starters other than Chase Anderson for 2020. That’s not to say that four more additions will be forthcoming, but it speaks to the team’s internal uncertainty and willingness to compete jobs.

Blue Jays Checked In On Michael Pineda

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The Blue Jays have at least checked in on right-hander Michael Pineda, according to Scott Mitchell of TSN (Twitter link). The precise level of interest isn’t known.

If the Blue Jays are indeed taking an aggressive stance on open-market arms, Pineda would be a good place to start. He’s not expected to secure anything like the big money destined for the very top options, so inking him shouldn’t be overly committing. At the same time, Pineda comes with a blend of recent durability, relative youth, and perhaps some remaining upside that would make good sense for the still-building Jays. That combination will also hold appeal to many other organizations.

We haven’t heard much in the way of early development in the Pineda market. Perhaps some teams will write him off due to his recent PED-related suspension. But it’s otherwise possible to imagine rather broad interest, so a dedicated early pursuit might help the Toronto organization pull off the sometimes-difficult task of luring the hurler north of the border. The Jays are surely still interested in adding multiple rotation pieces even after landing Chase Anderson, so the club is also involved in the markets of quite a few other established starters.

Pitching Market Chatter: Wheeler, Cole, Kluber, Jays

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There has been some early action on the starting pitching market. Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, filling one of their openings on a limited commitment. The Cardinals brought back Adam Wainwright. Chase Anderson went to the Blue Jays in a trade. The Rangers made Kyle Gibson their annual surprise three-year contract recipient. Those moves helped set the stage for some of the biggest free agents, who are now engaged with multiple suitors. We’ve recently covered the latest on hot commodity Zack Wheeler and high-end veteran Stephen Strasburg, who has held meetings with the Dodgers and Yankees.

Here’s more from other areas of the market:

  • Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.
  • The Yankees are clearly a legitimate player for top free agent Gerrit Cole, though agent Scott Boras is certain to demand that the New York powerhouse pay a premium to woo the West Coast native. Yesterday’s initial sit-down went well, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), though it’s hard to divine much of real import given that the sides didn’t talk cold hard cash. Sources tell Heyman that “the dollars will be there,” which seems to be an indication that the Yankees are fully prepared to make Cole the richest pitcher ever to play the game. But whether the club will cast its valuations aside in a full-blown bidding war, should one break out, remains to be seen.
  • We’ve heard a lot of chatter surrounding a certain Indians star shortstop, but relatively little on the club’s former (and future?) ace starter. That may not reflect the real state of play within and among front offices. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan cites multiple executives for the proposition that the Cleveland organization is working harder on structuring deals for Corey Kluber than in sorting out a blockbuster involving Francisco Lindor. As we explained in ranking Kluber 17th among the winter’s trade candidates, it’s all but impossible to know what to expect from the former Cy Young winner. Kluber ought to be well rested after a freak arm fracture ruined his 2019 season, but he had struggled in early action before the injury. He’s not cheap — $17.5MM in 2020 and $18MM via club option for one more year — but would be an outright steal at those rates if he’s anything like his usual self upon his return.
  • The Blue Jays are “as aggressive as any team” in pursuit of open-market starters, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’s anyone’s guess just how to interpret that characterization. The Toronto faithful are by now a bit jaded at such assurances, having grown frustrated with a string of losing seasons and minimal investment in the MLB roster. Perhaps this is all part of the setup for explaining that the club just couldn’t quite get a deal done despite its best efforts. Then again, there’s plenty of reason to think the Jays can and should be prepared to re-enter the fray in a big way. The club has cleaned up its future balance sheets and graduated many of its best prospects to the majors. Perhaps the Toronto front office will end up making significant rotation improvements over the course of the winter.
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