Blue Jays Rumors

Mutual Interest Between Blue Jays, Edwin Encarnacion

By Steve Adams | December 20, 2019 at 8:25am CDT

Earlier this month, the Blue Jays were connected to the likes of Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Justin Smoak and Edwin Encarnacion as they evaluated first base options. Less than two weeks later, both Tsutsugo and Smoak are off the board, but Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that there’s mutual interest between Toronto and Encarnacion.

A match between the two sides would make for a nice reunion angle to sell to fans in what figures to be another transitional year in Toronto. The Jays have added some arms to the pitching staff in Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi, but it’s tough to see them fully bouncing back from last year’s 67-win season — even with a full year of Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio in addition to the looming presence of additional prospects (namely, flamethrower Nate Pearson).

Pitching has been the primary focus for Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins, as he vowed at the onset of the offseason, but the Jays could certainly fit another first base/designated hitter option into the rotation. Rowdy Tellez, 25 in March, currently looks to be in line for regular at-bats on the 1B/DH carousel, but an Encarnacion reunion would surely deepen the lineup and bring a more formidable on-base presence to the fray than Tellez has offered in his young career (.299 OBP in 482 plate appearances).

Encarnacion hit .244/.344/.531 with 34 homers between the Mariners and Yankees last season — a strong output that’s more or less in the lines with what’s come to be expected of one of baseball’s most consistent sluggers. But despite his potent bat, it seems like he could struggle to find suitors willing to make offers commensurate with his production.

Let’s take a look at his potential market.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported last week that six clubs, including an NL team, have expressed interest in Encarnacion. Of course, “interest” is a rather subjective and nebulous term without further context, and it’s a bit hard to find that many teams with a path to a regular role for Encarnacion.

The White Sox met with his agents (per 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine) and could indeed be a sensible fit if they’re comfortable rotating Encarnacion and Jose Abreu at first base. The Blue Jays fit is reasonable, too. The Rangers make some sense as well, but signing Encarnacion basically commits to playing either him or Shin-Soo Choo in the field on a daily basis. It’s not a bad situation, however, particularly given the steady production offered by both.

The rest of the AL West features three teams with firmly set 1B/DH options (A’s, Astros, Angels) as well as another that traded Encarnacion away in 2019 and just signed its hopeful first baseman of the future to a long-term deal (Mariners, Evan White).

Over in the Central, it doesn’t seem likely that rebuilding clubs in Kansas City or Detroit will spend aggressively. The Twins have Nelson Cruz, who didn’t play an inning of defense in 2019, at DH. They’d need to commit to full-time first base reps for Encarnacion, which seems unlikely. The Indians, like the Mariners, have traded Encarnacion in the past calendar year. They also already have Carlos Santana and July acquisition Franmil Reyes in the mix.

In the AL East, the Yankees may prefer to keep their DH slot open to help rotate their corner outfielders, while Luke Voit and Mike Ford are options at first base. The Rays just signed Tsutsugo and have a crowded 1B/DH mix. We know the Orioles aren’t likely to spend on any notable free agent. The Red Sox have J.D. Martinez entrenched at DH and an opening at first base. But, as is the case in relation to the Twins or any NL club, it’s a bit tough to see Encarnacion as an everyday first baseman in his age-37 season. He’s never even played 700 innings at first base in a season.

The Blue Jays, White Sox and Rangers look like the best on-paper fits for Encarnacion, making the mutual interest between the slugger and Toronto all the more notable.

AL East Notes: Panik, Tsutsugo, Roark, Abad, Holmes

By Mark Polishuk | December 19, 2019 at 6:26pm CDT

The Yankees have had discussions about signing second baseman Joe Panik, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets, as New York continues to look for ways to both add infield depth and add left-handed balance to a lineup that is loaded with righty swingers. Panik is a left-handed bat, though he is coming off a pair of subpar years at the plate — the veteran has only a .249/.311/.334 slash line over 883 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season. These struggles prompted the Giants to part ways with their longtime second baseman last summer, though Panik hit better after catching on with the Mets for 39 games in 2019. The 29-year-old Panik also has the bonus of being a native New Yorker, born in Yonkers and a product of St. John’s University.

With Gleyber Torres likely to shift from second base to shortstop, the keystone could be occupied by DJ LeMahieu if the Yankees don’t prefer to use LeMahieu primarily as a first baseman. Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada are the top in-house options for the utility infield or part-time second base jobs if LeMahieu is indeed slated mostly for first base work, though the Yankees could prefer to be as flexible as possible with LeMahieu based on matchups. In this sense, Panik’s lack of defensive versatility could be a detriment to his chances at a Yankees deal; Panik has played all but one of his 682 MLB games as a second baseman, with the lone exception being one game at first base for San Francisco in 2018.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

The Rays’ two-year, $12MM contract with Yoshitomo Tsutsugo wasn’t the highest offer received by the outfielder, though the team’s strong courtship of the Japanese slugger eventually convinced him to come to Florida, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays were the first team to contact Tsutsugo after he was posted by Yokohama, they provided him with a thorough 20-page booklet about the club and the Tampa area, and a six-person crew that included manager Kevin Cash and GM Erik Neander visited Tsutsugo in person prior to the Winter Meetings, while Tsutsugo was working out in Los Angeles. All of the wooing paid off for the Rays, who now welcome a player with 185 homers over his last six seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball.
The Blue Jays made a similar big push to land Tanner Roark, as the right-hander told reporters (including Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic) that Toronto was the first team to get in contact with his representatives as free agency opened. “They knew what they wanted, and they wanted me and it’s exciting to have someone want you like that,” Roark said. Pitching coach Pete Walker also told McGrath that he and Roark “just seemed to hit it off” during a 25-minute phone call. Roark ended up inking a two-year, $24MM deal with the Jays, and is looking forward to being a veteran leader within Toronto’s young clubhouse.
The Orioles had several conversations with Fernando Abad before the left-hander signed with the Nationals, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports. With Abad now off the board, the O’s will continue to look for low-cost experience for their bullpen.
Also from Kubatko, the Orioles have hired Darren Holmes as their new bullpen coach. Holmes worked in the same role with the Rockies for the previous five seasons. A veteran of 13 MLB seasons, Holmes’ playing career included a brief five-game stint as a member of the Orioles in 2000.

Blue Jays Sign Tanner Roark

By Connor Byrne | December 18, 2019 at 10:35am CDT

DECEMBER 18: This deal is now official.

It includes equal $12MM salaries, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports (Twitter links). There are some minor award-based incentives included as well.

DECEMBER 11: The Blue Jays have agreed to a deal with free-agent right-hander Tanner Roark, Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet report. It’s a two-year, $24MM accord, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Roark is a client of Matt Colleran.

This is a better payday than expected for Roark, who MLBTR predicted Toronto would sign to a two-year, $18MM contract at the outset of the offseason. Nevertheless, if Roark’s history is any indication, he should give the Blue Jays some much-needed stability in their rotation. The rebuilding club, whose starting staff looked like an enormous weakness entering the winter, has shown some level of interest in just about every free-agent rotation piece. The Blue Jays have added two so far between Roark and fellow righty Chase Anderson, whom they acquired in a trade with the Brewers, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Toronto pick up yet another notable starter before the offseason’s out.

The 33-year-old Roark will head north after dividing the first seven seasons of his career among Washington, Cincinnati and Oakland. Roark produced sub-3.00 ERA results three times as a member of the Nationals toward the beginning of his career, but he has settled into more of a mid- to back-end type in recent seasons. Roark notched an ERA and a FIP somewhere in the 4.00s in each of the previous three seasons, also totaling 160-plus innings in all of those years.

Most recently, Roark fired 165 1/3 frames between the Reds and Athletics in 2019, when he posted a 4.35 ERA/4.67 FIP with a career-best 8.6 K/9 against 2.78 BB/9, though he did manage a personal-worst groundball rate of 36.2 percent. The latter figure helped lead to a career-worst 15.5 percent home run-to-fly ball rate, but Roark was hardly alone in giving up more long balls than ever during a homer-happy year across the majors.

The Blue Jays are no doubt hopeful Roark’s HR/FB rate will return closer to his lifetime mark of 11.3 percent going forward. Regardless, he’s now the most accomplished starter on a starting staff that bid adieu to Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez in trades over the summer. Among Jays holdovers, only the relatively unproven Jacob Waguespack and Trent Thornton piled up 70 or more innings as starters in 2019.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mark Shapiro On Blue Jays’ Offseason

By Jeff Todd | December 18, 2019 at 7:33am CDT

Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro joined Sportsnet’s Tim and Sid (link to YouTube) to discuss the state of the team’s offseason efforts. He emphasized that “there’s still a good amount of offseason left” and suggested further additions are yet to come.

Shapiro acknowledged that the market has driven salaries higher than anticipated. In response, the club has “adjusted our threshold on players and gone … a certain percentage higher than we thought we would go.”

That still hasn’t resulted in any major additions, with Shapiro explaining that a variety of circumstances have kept the Jays from locking up certain targets. One particular challenge, he suggested, lies in convincing players of the team’s readiness to win games. That seems to present a bit of a chicken/egg dilemma, though obviously the organization hopes that its on-field output will improve from within as well as benefiting from new additions.

So what of the hoped for “significant additions”? Shapiro says the club has “already added” — a nod to the still-unofficial Tanner Roark and Shun Yamaguchi additions — and is “not done this winter.” (Shapiro suggests the club values Yamaguchi for his ability to provide rotation depth and “upside out of the pen.” ) But Shapiro acknowledged it’s less likely now than it once was that the club will install one major player, though he made clear he’s still holding out hope.

Shapiro asks that the organization be judged at the end of the winter and based upon the entirety of the roster movement that occurs. He believes there’ll be “significant” improvement by that standard when camp opens in the spring.

But Shapiro also left some unmistakable warnings not to expect too much. He cited the need to maintain “future flexibility” for a hoped-for “window of opportunity,” explaining that the organization must “grudgingly approach giving up that flexibility.” And when asked about potentially adding to the position-player mix, Shapiro used the opportunity to explain why the organization is hesitant to “give up” on certain players, proffering Teoscar Hernandez and Derek Fisher as examples.

AL East Notes: Jays’ Rotation, Orioles, Rays

By Steve Adams | December 17, 2019 at 9:46am CDT

While the Blue Jays weren’t known to be in pursuit of either Madison Bumgarner or Corey Kluber, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet explores how Bumgarner’s deal with Arizona and Kluber’s trade to Texas nevertheless impact Toronto’s search for rotation help. The Dodgers and Angels missed out on both pitchers, leaving both Southern California clubs with an even shorter supply of potential upgrades to ponder. Given the Jays’ interest in Hyun-Jin Ryu, that’s not great news, as both L.A. clubs could now look more aggressively at Ryu. (The same could also be true of the Twins, who also pursued Bumgarner to no avail.) The Blue Jays entered the winter determined to improve their rotation, and while the additions of Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson undeniably help, options that align with GM Ross Atkins’ stated desire for “significant” upgrades are beginning to dwindle.

MLBTR Poll: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Next Contract

By Dylan A. Chase | December 15, 2019 at 12:04am CDT

The top tier of the free agent pitching market has been shorn away. Gerrit Cole ($324MM), Stephen Strasburg ($245MM), and Zack Wheeler ($118MM) all handily outpaced our guarantee projections from earlier this offseason, leaving an open question: what about the best of the rest? With Jake Odorizzi and Cole Hamels accepting a qualifying offer and an early deal, respectively, the market’s current top starters are likely Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel.

We’ve already heard that Bumgarner is looking to shoot over the $100MM threshold, and one team has reportedly provided him with a $70MM floor. Keuchel, solid pitcher though he is, comes back to the open market on the heels of a prorated Atlanta season that saw him pitch to a 4.72 FIP–the $39MM projection we tagged him with back in November still feels like a reasonable ballpark. But where do recent developments leave Ryu?

Simply scanning reader comments on any Ryu-related article this offseason would lend you a pretty solid sense of the wide range of opinions surrounding Ryu’s left arm. There’s no question that arm is effective–you don’t pitch to a career 2.98 ERA or sub-2.00 career BB/9 rate without a surgical level of skill. There’s also no question the former KBO standout is hitting the market at the right time. If Cole can parlay a second-place Cy Young finish into a record-setting free agent payday, what prize should remain for the award’s NL runner-up?

The answer to that question will likely hinge upon how risk-averse front offices will feel as they survey the market’s remaining options. Few pitchers hit free agency free of some historical health concerns (Strasburg and Wheeler included); at the same time, Ryu has hardly been a picture of durability to this point in his major league career. Since coming to L.A. in advance of the 2013 season, Ryu has made 125 starts in seven seasons–an average of 17.8 starts per year. Then again, maybe that’s not a fair depiction: it may be more accurate to simply say that shoulder and elbow surgeries limited him to one appearance from 2015-2016, while he was likewise limited to just 15 starts in 2018.

But for teams looking for premium performance, the 32-year-old Ryu has a clear leg up on just about anyone currently available. He’s logged two consecutive seasons in the top five percent of pitchers in terms of walk rate and he induces ground balls at a very healthy clip. According to Statcast, he’s almost unmatched when it comes to limiting hard contact: hitters managed just an 85.3 mean exit velocity against Ryu’s five-pitch arsenal last year, a mark that ranked in the game’s top four percent. He just won the ERA title, after a 2018 campaign that saw him post a 1.97 earned run average in 15 starts. You get the picture–Ryu is very good at pitching, when healthy.

In advance of the 2017 season, the Dodgers signed lefty Rich Hill to a three-year, $48MM deal. To that point, Hill had twice exceeded the 100-inning threshold at the major league level in a 12-year career. He was set to turn 37 the following spring. To boot, that deal took place three years ago and in advance of several record-setting contracts for open-market pitching. The question is: what does a high-performing, oft-ailing pitcher deserve three years on from when Hill secured $48MM in guarantees? We predicted three years and $54MM for Ryu at the winter’s outset, but, in the wake of this offseason’s events (and considering the Wheeler deal, especially) there seems to be a fair argument that his horizons have expanded. The Twins, Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Cardinals have all been specifically linked to him in recent weeks.

We put it to you: which team is best positioned to take a chance on him, and what kind of contract does he figure to receive?

Where will Ryu sign? (Poll link for app users)

How long will the contract be? (Poll link for app users)

What will the total guarantee be? (Poll link for app users)

Free Agent Notes: Keuchel, Cards, Hudson, Nationals, Jays, Porcello, Rondon, Moose, Treinen

By Mark Polishuk | December 12, 2019 at 7:48am CDT

The Cardinals haven’t checked in on Dallas Keuchel since initially showing interest in the veteran lefty near the start of the offseason, The Athletic’s Mark Saxon reports (subscription required). While president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said told Saxon and other reporters that his team has been focused mostly on pitching during the Winter Meetings, “the Cardinals have chosen instead to slow-play their hand,” Saxon writes, perhaps to the chagrin of agents trying to get St. Louis involved in the fast-moving pitching market. “For us, we’re OK being patient,” Mozeliak said of a rotation that currently consists of Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and the club’s biggest winter addition to date, the re-signed Adam Wainwright. This decent group and multiple fifth-starter candidates on hand give the Cardinals the comfort in waiting until later in the offseason to add pitchers once asking prices from both free agents and trade partners could begin to drop.

Trade Rumors: Rangers, Smith, Lowrie, Blue Jays, Frazier, Cubs

By Mark Polishuk | December 12, 2019 at 5:21am CDT

The Athletics aren’t the only AL West team interested in Jed Lowrie’s services, as the Rangers have been in talks with the Mets about a deal that would send both Lowrie and Dominic Smith to the Lone Star State, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required). However, “talks to this point have failed to progress” between the two clubs. It’s fair to guess that Smith was the Rangers’ real target in these negotiations, as Smith would be the sweetener added to the deal in exchange for the Rangers assuming most or all of the remaining $12MM on Lowrie’s contract. New York is reportedly trying to create payroll space by shopping high-priced names like Lowrie or Jeurys Familia to other teams.

Smith is perhaps a bit of a curious fit for the Rangers, given that Texas already has a plethora of left-handed hitting first base/DH/corner outfield types, and only just dealt from that surplus in sending Nomar Mazara to the White Sox. Still, adding a 24-year-old with five seasons of control has obvious value for the Rangers, as Shin-Soo Choo’s contract is up after the 2020 campaign, and Ronald Guzman could become expendable in the event of Smith joining the roster. While Lowrie missed virtually all of 2019 due to injury, he also offers more to Texas than just a salary dump if he’s able to stay healthy. If Lowrie was able to recapture anything close to his 2017-18 form, he’d represent a good third base answer if the Rangers weren’t able to sign Josh Donaldson.

More trade talk as we near the end of the Winter Meetings…

Though the Blue Jays have been mostly linked to free agents this winter, the club is apparently being just as diligent on the trade front, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes. In addition to Toronto’s known interest in Yankees southpaw J.A. Happ, the Jays have checked in with the Red Sox about David Price and Jackie Bradley Jr., and with the Pirates about right-hander Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove. It doesn’t seem like any of these particular options are close, however, as Davidi notes that “the cost in both dollars and prospect capital remains too high” for Price, Bradley, and Happ. The Jays and Pirates have been speculatively linked as trade partners since Ben Cherington recently went from Toronto’s front office to the GM chair in Pittsburgh, though this familiarity may not necessarily be a plus. As Davidi puts it, Cherington “may think too similarly to his former colleagues for a deal to be struck.”
As the Pirates weigh a lot of interest in Adam Frazier, the Athletics are involved but perhaps no better than Pittsburgh’s third option as a trade partner, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reports (Twitter link). The left-handed hitting Frazier would be an ideal fit to help balance out Oakland’s heavily right-handed lineup, and would provide some experience to a young collection of second base candidates. Frazier isn’t old himself (he is a few days away from his 28th birthday) and is still controllable through three years of arbitration eligibility.
While the Cubs are reportedly working hard towards swinging some (potentially major) trades, the possibility exists that the 2020 roster will look a lot like last year’s edition, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and other media. “The makings of a very good team is currently under control on our roster, with a chance to win a division. And do that, and you have a chance to have a great October,” Epstein said, though “status quo is not a bad option, but we’re obviously out there looking to make changes and change the dynamic and improve.” It could be that the Cubs won’t become big players in the trade market until most or all of the top free agents have selected their new teams. In the case of Kris Bryant, for example, “officials from two teams aggressively trying to fill third-base needs…said the Cubs were asking too much for Bryant to seriously consider him while other options remained available,” Wittenmyer writes.

Pitcher Rumors: Cole, LA, Porcello, Roark, Reds, Brewers, Jays, Fish

By Connor Byrne and Jeff Todd | December 11, 2019 at 9:23pm CDT

The latest on several pitchers…

The Yankees won the bidding for right-handed ace Gerrit Cole on Tuesday, when the two sides agreed to a history-making deal worth $324MM over nine years. But the runners-up, the Angels and Dodgers, made mighty competitive offers in their own right. Both clubs were willing to go to eight years, with the Dodgers’ bid at exactly $300MM and the Angels’ just below that line, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports. Both teams’ offers included deferrals, whereas the Yankees’ didn’t.
Free-agent righty-hander Rick Porcello has a three-year offer in hand, but he’s more inclined to accept a one-year contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network relays. By taking a short-term pact, Porcello would be betting on himself and pinning his hopes on bouncing back next year after a tough 2019. In possibly his last season as a member of the Red Sox, the former AL Cy Young winner struggled to a below-average 5.52 ERA/4.76 FIP, though the durable 30-year-old did pile up at least 170 innings (174 1/3) for the 10th time in his career.
Righty Tanner Roark came off the market Wednesday when he reached a two-year, $24MM agreement with Toronto, but a couple NL Central teams were also in the race for him. The Reds, with whom Roark spent the first half of 2019, and the Brewers pursued him, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. So far this offseason, Cincinnati hasn’t yet added to an already formidable rotation fronted by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani. On the other hand, the Brewers made a low-risk, possibly high-reward signing Wednesday in grabbing former KBO star Josh Lindblom.
Speaking of Lindblom, the Blue Jays put a “significant” offer on the table for him before he headed to Milwaukee, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. The details of that proposal aren’t known. Lindblom would up agreeing to a three-year deal worth $9.125MM.
The Marlins are drawing some interest in righty Jose Urena, Craig Mish of MLB Network reports on Twitter. The Blue Jays are said to be one of the clubs to have called on the hard-throwing 28-year-old, who’s under arbitration control for two more seasons. Fellow Marlins starters Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Pablo Lopez have also gotten clubs’ attention, as upward of half the league’s teams have inquired about them, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets. However, Frisaro writes that it’s “extremely unlikely” the Marlins will trade anyone from that trio.

Kole Calhoun Market Taking Shape

By Jeff Todd | December 11, 2019 at 1:48pm CDT

We’ve yet to hear much of anything this winter regarding Kole Calhoun — a reflection both of the primacy of starting pitching on the market and the devaluation of the long ball around the league. The veteran corner outfielder has waited his turn as teams chase higher-priority targets.

Now, it seems some attention is beginning to turn to Calhoun and other possible targets. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays, Reds, Brewers, and Marlins all have some level of interest in the 32-year-old.

Calhoun was paid a $1MM buyout by the Angels when his long-time team decided not to pick up his $14MM option. He popped 33 home runs in 2019 and has long been respected as a hard-nosed grinder with a quality glove, but his nice season wasn’t enough to warrant that level of pay even on a one-year deal.

While Calhoun has at times produced well-above-average offensive numbers, his context-adjusted output wasn’t exceptionally productive in 2019. Over 552 plate appearances, he maintained a .232/.325/.467 batting line, good for a 108 wRC+. That was an improvement on his average-ish 2017 and awful 2018 showings with the bat, but hardly an otherworldly effort. Calhoun walked at a career-best 11.1% rate but also went down on strikes at a personal-worst 25.6% clip.

The initial list of potential pursuers doesn’t seem to portend a bidding war. The Fish are biting this year, but don’t seem likely to go wild. They’re also looking at quite a few other options, as are the Reds. The Blue Jays and Brewers both make sense but don’t seem likely to spend past their internal valuations for a player such as Calhoun. Of course, it’s certainly possible that other clubs are in the picture or could join it depending upon outcomes with other segments of the market.

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