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Collin McHugh Announces Retirement

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Veteran right-hander Collin McHugh announced his retirement from the game Monday (Instagram link). The 36-year-old pitched in parts of 11 MLB seasons from 2012-23 and accrued more than nine years of big league service along the way.

“I was never the best player on any team I played for,” McHugh wrote in his announcement. “Including my 7th grade church league team, on which I played catcher. I never did travel baseball. I went to a small private high school and a small NAIA college. I got drafted in the 18th round by the Mets, most likely as a favor to my college coach. I threw 90 mph. I was NEVER supposed to make it out of A ball. 16 years later, it’s finally time for me to hang ‘em up. And as cringey as it might sound, I’m proud of myself. Proud that I didn’t give up. Proud of the clubhouses I’ve been lucky enough to have a locker in. Proud to be a member of the MLBPA alongside this generation of amazing ballplayers. To the Mets, Rockies, Astros, Red Sox, Rays, and my hometown Braves: Thanks for taking a chance on a kid like me. I’ll never forget it. And don’t worry, I’m pretty sure I’ll be around the game forever. So if we see each other at a park near you, come say hey!”

McHugh, indeed, was never regarded as a top prospect. He debuted with the 2012 Mets and was tagged for a 7.59 ERA in 21 1/3 frames as a rookie. His struggles in Queens continued into the following season, and McHugh was traded to the Rockies in exchange for outfielder Eric Young Jr., who’d been designated for assignment in Colorado. Things didn’t pan out at Coors Field either; McHugh was torched for 21 runs in 19 innings as a Rockie.

Despite the lack of success, the Astros both tried to trade for McHugh prior to his Rockies acquisition and then later claimed him off waivers when Colorado removed him from its 40-man roster. That interest and subsequent acquisition came back in 2013, prior to the public advent of a great deal of pitching data that is now commonplace. At the time, the high spin rate on McHugh’s curveball gave the Astros confidence that with some tweaks to his repertoire and general approach to hitters on the mound, that could be a plus breaking pitch that fueled a breakout for the little-known righty.

Houston’s interest proved prescient. In 2014, McHugh stepped into the Astros’ rotation and made 25 starts while working to an excellent 2.74 ERA over 154 2/3 frames. He fanned just over a quarter of his opponents against a tidy 6.6% walk rate while keeping the ball on the ground at a roughly average clip. A year later, McHugh followed up with a career-high 203 2/3 innings, pitching to a 3.89 ERA in a full slate of 32 trips to the hill.

McHugh finished fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting during that 2014 breakout and was eighth in Cy Young voting during his followup effort. He made another 33 starts for Houston during the 2016 season before sustaining a shoulder injury that limited him to 12 starts of 3.55 ERA ball in 2017. McHugh returned as a reliever in 2018 and went from a key member of the Houston rotation to a similarly important reliever; he fired 72 1/3 innings of 1.99 ERA ball in 2018 before struggling to more pedestrian results in a 2019 campaign split between the rotation and bullpen.

Overall, McHugh went from a nondescript late-round pick to a clear-cut big leaguer during his time in Houston. He pitched 753 1/3 innings of 3.63 ERA ball there before hitting free agency and taking a one-year deal with the Red Sox that was wiped out by injury and the pandemic-shortened schedule. McHugh landed with the Rays in 2021 and bounced back in a major way: a 1.55 ERA in 64 innings. That prompted a two-year deal with the Braves — a homecoming for a pitcher who went to high school in Lilburn and college in Mount Berry — where McHugh went on to throw another 128 innings of 3.38 ERA ball.

All told, McHugh’s career will draw to a close with a 71-47 record, 46 holds, one save and a 3.72 ERA in 992 2/3 innings at the MLB level. He struck out 967 hitters against 280 walks and added another 27 innings of 4.00 ERA performance in the postseason. McHugh won a World Series ring with the controversial 2017 Astros club that is now infamous for its sign-stealing setup. FanGraphs valued McHugh’s career at nearly 16 wins above replacement, while Baseball-Reference pegged him at 12.4 WAR in a career that netted him just under $27MM in earnings. Few 18th-round signees can boast anything close to that type of success; McHugh and Mike Cameron stand as two of the best ever selected in that round. McHugh’s comment about being “around the game forever” seems to leave the door open for some kind of role with a team in the future. Best wishes to the righty on whatever the next step may be.

Braves Sign Jordan Luplow To Minor League Deal

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The Braves signed outfielder Jordan Luplow to a minor league deal last Wednesday, according to his transaction log on MLB.com. Luplow, a client of ALIGND Sports Agency, signed with Atlanta last offseason, too, but was designated for assignment before playing a game on the big league squad. He split the rest of his season between the Blue Jays’ and Twins’ organizations.

Luplow began his career with the Pirates, who selected him in the third round of the 2014 draft. After two seasons with Pittsburgh in 2017 and ’18, the 30-year-old outfielder was traded three times in three years, first to the Guardians, then to the Rays, and finally to the Diamondbacks. His best performance came in 2019, his first year in Cleveland, when the righty batter hit 15 home runs in 85 games, slashing .276/.372/.551. Unfortunately, he struggled in the pandemic-shortened season, lost much of the following year to an ankle injury, and produced what was arguably the worst performance of his career the year after that. The veteran hit .176 with a .634 OPS across 83 games in 2022, and the D-backs DFA’d him in November.

Shortly thereafter, Luplow elected free agency and signed a one-year, $1.4 million contract with the Braves. However, he was cut five days into the season, having played just three games at Triple-A Gwinnett. The Blue Jays scooped him up off waivers but didn’t have much big league playing time to offer; Luplow played 48 games at Triple-A Buffalo and only 7 with Toronto. The Jays DFA’d Luplow after the trade deadline, and this time the Twins came calling. They had more opportunities for Luplow, getting him into 32 big league games over the final two months of the season, but left him off the postseason roster in October. Overall, he hit .208 with a .647 OPS in 39 MLB games last season, while slashing .237/.342/.418 across 54 contests in the minors.

Although his offensive numbers have been uninspiring for several years now, Luplow has always drawn walks at a high rate, and his career splits against left-handed pitching are rather impressive (33 home runs and an .833 OPS in 565 PA), even if his 2019 season is doing most of the heavy lifting in that department. What’s more, his strong arm and slightly above-average speed make him a capable option in an outfield corner.

Atlanta has one of the most talented rosters in the league, but there could be a spot for Luplow if he shines in Spring Training. Forrest Wall is currently penciled in as the fourth outfielder, but the long-time minor leaguer only has 15 MLB plate appearances under his belt. What’s more, the Braves currently have just 12 position players on their 40-man roster, and they’re surely planning to add more before Opening Day.

MLBTR Podcast: The Cubs’ Activity, Marcus Stroman And Jordan Hicks

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Ben Cherington of the Pirates has repeatedly said that he would be active in the market for another starting pitcher and another outfielder. With Spring Training starting in about one month, has he given up on this quest? (25:35)
  • Why do general managers not come out and say reports are B.S.? Use the Jays as example. They are not interested in Blake Snell but their name gets thrown in for leverage. Should GMs step in and say this report is false? The endless number of sources is ridiculous and leads nowhere except larger pay days or trade hauls because of fake competition. (27:30)
  • I think most of the baseball world is getting really sick of the Dodgers and Yankees buying all the major names. It’s terrible for parity and makes for season after season of “wash, rinse, repeat” storylines. Is the league ever going to enact a salary cap? It’s done great things for the other three major sports leagues. What is the reason for the resistance to it? (31:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Notable International Signings: 1/15/24

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January 15 marks the official opening of the international signing period. While the vast majority of top talents have reached verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance, they’re allowed to formally put pen to paper to begin their affiliated careers. The signing period technically runs until December 15, but the top signees will ink their contracts as soon as first eligible.

Ben Badler of Baseball America and Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com are among those covering the activity. At MLBTR, we’ll highlight a few of the top signees. Both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline provide scouting reports and bonus information on more of the highly-regarded prospects. They’re each worth full reads for those interested in the class.

Note: MLB Pipeline ranks the class on talent. Baseball America orders the players by bonus amount, not on evaluations of the players’ ability. Since international amateurs are so young and tend to agree to their bonuses well in advance of signing day, a player’s profile can change significantly between the time they reach agreement on a bonus and the official opening of the window.

Some of the top names (ordered by signing bonus):

  • Jose Perdomo, SS, Braves: A right-handed hitting infielder from Venezuela, Perdomo leads the class with a $5MM signing bonus. MLB Pipeline ranks him as the #3 prospect in the group. He’s regarded as a polished hitter with a good chance to stick somewhere on the infield. Badler notes (on X) that the $5MM bonus is the largest ever for a Venezuelan player.
  • Leodalis De Vries, SS, Padres: De Vries lands the second-highest bonus at $4.2MM. Sanchez and Badler each indicate he’s now regarded as the most talented prospect in this year’s class. It’s the second straight year in which San Diego landed the #1 player in the international period after last year’s signing of catcher Ethan Salas. De Vries, a native of the Dominican Republic, is a 6’1″ switch-hitter. He draws praise for a well-rounded offensive profile with power potential and a chance to stick at shortstop.
  • Fernando Cruz, SS, Cubs: A $4MM signee out of the Dominican Republic, Cruz is a 5’11” infielder. Evaluators praise his bat speed and all-fields power potential. He draws attention for his athleticism and defensive toolset at shortstop. MLB Pipeline notes he has an aggressive offensive approach, while BA indicates some scouts have expressed concern about the length in his swing. MLB Pipeline ranks Cruz as the #4 talent in the class.
  • Dawel Joseph, SS, Mariners: Signed for $3MM from the Dominican Republic, Joseph is a right-handed hitter with a 6’2″ frame. That build leads to ample raw power projection. BA and Pipeline each indicate that Joseph has lost some of his formerly elite speed as he has grown, although he still has a shot to play somewhere up the middle. Both outlets suggest he sports more of a power-over-hit offensive profile.

A few others with a noteworthy signing figure and/or placement on MLB Pipeline’s prospect rankings:

  • Yovanny Rodriguez, C, Mets: $2.85MM signing bonus, Venezuela native, MLB Pipeline’s #6 prospect
  • Victor Hurtado, OF Nationals: $2.7MM-2.8MM signing bonus*, Dominican Republic native, MLB Pipeline’s #20 prospect
  • Adolfo Sanchez, OF, Reds: $2.7MM signing bonus, Dominican Republic native, MLB Pipeline’s #5 prospect
  • Joswa Lugo, SS, Angels: $2.3MM signing bonus, Dominican Republic native, MLB Pipeline’s #37 prospect
  • Yandel Ricardo, SS, Royals: #9 on BA’s bonus board (specific number unreported), Cuba native, MLB Pipeline’s #16 prospect
  • Emil Morales, SS, Dodgers: #10 on BA’s bonus board (specific number unreported), Dominican Republic native, MLB Pipeline’s #14 prospect
  • Paulino Santana, OF, Rangers: $1.3MM signing bonus, Dominican Republic native, MLB Pipeline’s #2 prospect

* BA reports Hurtado’s bonus at $2.7MM, while MLB.com pegs it at $2.8MM

Charlie Culberson Attempting To Become Pitcher, Re-Signs With Braves On Minors Deal

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Charlie Culberson has re-signed with the Braves on a minor league deal and will report to minor league camp as a pitcher, per reports from Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal Constitution.

Culberson, 35 in April, has served as a utility player in the majors for over a decade now. He debuted with the Giants back in 2012 and has since suited up for the Rockies, Dodgers, Braves and Rangers, getting into 590 games in his career. He’s never been a huge threat at the plate, having hit .248/.293/.385 overall for a wRC+ of 76, but he has generally received strong defensive grades while lining up at every position on the diamond except catcher and center field.

That includes some brief stints on the mound, which have gone well. He has tossed 7 1/3 innings over his eight appearances in the big leagues, allowing just one earned run, three walks and seven hits while striking out one opponent. He also made four appearances in Triple-A last year, allowing two earned runs in 3 2/3 innings, with five strikeouts and two walks. As noted by Toscano, Culberson was clocked at 93.7 miles per hour in an appearance back in 2018. In Triple-A last year, he hit 93.1.

Perhaps focusing on pitching full-time will allow him to push that velocity further, or maybe it will be harder for him to maintain it with a larger workload. Attempting to suddenly become a pitcher on the cusp of one’s 35th birthday is obviously an unusual path but there’s some logic to it for Culberson. He would have been hard-pressed to find a meaningful role as a utility player going forward. In 2023, he had two separate month-long stints on the big league roster in Atlanta but received just one major league plate appearance for the year. Incidentally, he got a single and finished the year with a slash line of 1.000/1.000/1.000 and a wRC+ of 475. But instead of languishing on the bench or in the minors again, he’ll take a different path.

It will also be fun storyline for supporters of the club. Culberson has become something of a fan favorite over his many stints with Atlanta and he’ll now set his sights on a new and surprising task.

Braves Extend Alex Anthopoulos Through 2031

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The Braves announced this morning that they’ve signed president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos to an extension that will keep him with the team through the 2031 season. Anthopoulos had previously been entering the final season of a three-year contract extension that spanned the 2022-24 seasons. He’ll now be in Atlanta for an additional seven years.

“Alex and I have enjoyed a wonderful working relationship, and I look forward to that continuing for many years to come,” Braves CEO Terry McGuirk said in the team’s press release announcing the extension.

“I have been around this game a very long time and know that Alex’s track record of success is truly something special. There is simply no one better in the business. This extension gives Alex the runway to make long-term decisions and the opportunity to continue his track record of assembling teams that are perennial contenders. I have the utmost confidence in his ability to deliver championship baseball for our fans well into the future.”

The seven-year term of the contract extension is massive in relation to Anthopoulos’ baseball operations peers throughout the sport; most president of baseball operations and/or general manager contracts are three to five years in length. Given the unparalleled young core that the Braves have not only developed but also largely managed to sign to club-friendly contract extensions under Anthopoulos’ watch, however, it’s not surprising to see the team reward him with an uncommonly lengthy contract of his own — one that’ll allow him to see the bulk of those player extensions play out in full.

The 46-year-old Anthopoulos’ ascension to the top of the sport’s executive sphere is one rooted in the humblest of beginnings. His first job in baseball came with the Expos, where he was an unpaid intern working in their mail room and printing stat sheets. Expos scouts eventually took Anthopoulos under their wing, and he was moved to the team’s scouting department before being hired by the Blue Jays in 2003. From there, Anthopoulos climbed the ranks of Toronto’s baseball operations staff, rising all the way to general manager — a role he’d hold through 2015 before rejecting an extension under incoming president and CEO Mark Shapiro.

The Dodgers quickly added Anthopoulos to their front office, hiring him as a vice president of baseball operations working alongside president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman and then-GM Farhan Zaidi. That proved to be less than a two-year stop, as Atlanta hired Anthopoulos away from Los Angeles and named him general manager after former GM John Coppolella was dismissed and banned from baseball following reported violations on the international free agent market and in the MLB draft. (Major League Baseball lifted Coppolella’s “lifetime” ban after six years, in 2023.)

While some of the core pieces comprising the Braves’ roster were signed or drafted under the former regime — most notably, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Max Fried — it was Anthopoulos who oversaw the extensions for each of Acuna (eight years, $100MM), Albies (seven years, $35MM) and Riley (ten years, $212MM). While Anthopoulos himself doesn’t necessarily oversee the draft, he did hire now-former scouting director Dana Brown — who’s since been hired as Houston’s general manager — and set the stage for a remarkable run of success in the amateur draft. (Brown and Anthopoulos worked together both in Montreal and in Toronto.)

From 2019 onward, Atlanta drafted names like Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder, Vaughn Grissom and Shea Langeliers (among others), each of whom has either emerged as a core contributor or been included in a trade to help build out the club’s current roster. (Langeliers was sent to Oakland in the Matt Olson trade; Grissom recently was traded to the Red Sox for Chris Sale.)

In addition to Acuna, Albies and Riley, Anthopoulos has succeeded in brokering long-term deals with the majority of Atlanta’s core. While Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson did ultimately depart in free agency — and Fried could well do the same next winter — the Braves have had more success on the extension front than any team in the game. Harris inked an eight-year, $72MM deal midway through his rookie season. Strider followed suit with a six-year, $75MM contract.

Less than 48 hours after acquiring Olson in what’s now a wildly lopsided trade with the A’s (who received Langeliers, Cristian Pache, Joey Estes and Ryan Cusick in return), Anthopoulos signed his new first baseman to an eight-year, $168MM extension. A year later, Anthopoulos again pried a star away from Oakland on the trade market, acquiring catcher Sean Murphy in a three-team deal that sent William Contreras to Milwaukee. As with Olson, Murphy quickly put pen to paper on a new contract: a six-year, $73MM deal.

The Braves, under Anthopoulos, have also made veteran Charlie Morton a fixture in the rotation, repeatedly signing him and extending him on a series of short-term contracts. Morton, originally drafted by Atlanta back in 2002, is now entering his fourth straight season as a Brave and has given the team 521 innings of 3.77 ERA ball and was a key part of the team’s 2021 postseason staff (3.24 ERA in 16 2/3 innings). Similarly, catcher/designated hitter Travis d’Arnaud has become a veteran staple on the club, winning a Silver Slugger in 2020 and making the 2022 All-Star team while combining for a solid .256/.315/.446 slash in four seasons since originally signing.

That 2021 postseason run, of course, is the crowning achievement of Anthopoulos’ career thus far. The Braves, powered by a juggernaut core and buoyed by deadline acquisitions like Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario, blitzed through the second half of the season as the sport’s hottest team and rode that momentum all the way to a 2021 World Series title.

As with any baseball operations executive, not every move Anthopoulos has made has worked out. The three-year, $40MM deal for lefty Will Smith and the four-year, $65MM signing of Marcell Ozuna have had mixed results, at best, and the trade to swap out Smith for Odorizzi played out poorly as well. Smith rebounded in Houston, while Odorizzi struggled in Atlanta before being sent to the Rangers, with the Braves remaining on the hook for the bulk of his 2023 salary after Odorizzi exercised a player option. The Braves also acquired Kevin Gausman at what now looks like a bargain rate from the Orioles in 2018 but cut him loose via waivers a year later after he struggled in Atlanta. Gausman signed with the Giants the following offseason, broke out in San Francisco, and has since become a bona fide No. 1 starter in Toronto, where he signed a five-year free agent deal.

In comparison to the litany of successes under Anthopoulos, however, those misses are relatively minor in nature. And, while perhaps the Braves would like mulligans on some of those decisions, the simple fact of the matter is that none of them have stood as roadblocks to success. The Braves have won the NL East in all six of Anthopoulos’ seasons as general manager, and the team’s unrivaled collection of talent under long-term contract has positioned Atlanta as a legitimate dynasty in the division.

We’re reminded each year of the MLB postseason’s intrinsic randomness, but it’d be a surprise if the Braves didn’t reach the playoffs in the majority of the seasons under this new contract for their president — and another World Series appearance (if not victory) wouldn’t be a bad bet, either. It’s somewhat fitting that an executive known for his ability to hammer out club-friendly extensions now secures his own long-term deal — one that’ll assure him the opportunity to reap the benefits of the incredible crop of talent that’s been drafted, acquired, developed and signed long-term under his watch.

“I’d like to thank Terry for his continued support and trust,” Anthopoulos said in his own statement this morning. “The Braves are an incredible organization to be a part of, and I’m proud of the success we’ve achieve together. I am grateful for the opportunity to continue to lead baseball operations and to strive to bring another World Series to Atlanta.”

Braves, Max Fried Avoid Arbitration

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The Braves and Max Fried agreed to a $15MM contract to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’ll avoid a hearing in his final year going through the process.  Fried is represented by CAA Sports.

Fried, who turns 30 next week, put up a 2.55 ERA in 2023.  He made 14 starts spanning 77 2/3 innings, enduring a three-month absence for a forearm strain.  The abbreviated season resulted in a $1.5MM raise for the lefty.

This represents Fried’s fourth and final time through arbitration, as he achieved Super Two status after the 2020 season.  He reached an agreement with the Braves for ’21, won a hearing against them for ’22, and lost a hearing against the club for ’23.  Fried had submitted a $15MM figure at his hearing nearly a year ago, but the arbitration panel instead chose the team’s $13.5MM figure.  So now in 2024, he will earn the amount he was hoping to earn in ’23.

Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported in December that the Braves discussed an extension with Fried’s agency prior to the ’23 season.  Braves president of baseball operations and general manager Alex Anthopoulos has given out 18 extensions since being hired in November 2017, according to our MLB Contract Tracker.  His longest deal for a pitcher was Spencer Strider’s six-year pact, though Strider had one year of MLB service at the time.  Otherwise he hasn’t given a multiyear deal to any starting pitcher, if you don’t count Reynaldo Lopez as one.  Though they’ve signed many players to extensions, the Braves did ultimately let Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson leave as free agents, as noted by Toscano.

Fried is a special case, given a run of success for the Braves that has included Cy Young votes in the 2020 and ’22 seasons as well as the clinching win in Game 6 of the 2021 World Series.  Starting pitchers who signed deals worth $100MM+ with five years of service in the last decade include Clayton Kershaw, Homer Bailey, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Berrios, Joe Musgrove, and Luis Castillo.  After back to back years of arbitration hearings, perhaps Fried reaching an agreement for ’24 can be viewed as a mild positive in his relationship with the team.

If he reaches the open market, Fried would be one of many interesting starting pitchers in the 2024-25 class.  You can check that out here.

Latest On Dylan Cease

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Dylan Cease remains atop the list of potential trade candidates for teams seeking rotation upgrades this offseason, but White Sox general manager Chris Getz isn’t backing off on his asking price in a trade, writes ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. Other clubs who’ve spoken to the Sox about Cease tell Rogers that the ask has been “multiple” top prospects with additional lower-end talent; the Sox aren’t open to dealing two affordable years of control over their top starter for a package centered around just one top-tier prospect.

That generally aligns with prior reporting that the White Sox asked the Reds for last year’s first-round pick, Rhett Lowder, and top prospects Edwin Arroyo and Connor Phillips in exchange for Cease. Other teams have similarly balked at the idea of parting with so much talent from the top end of their system.

Rogers reports that the Braves approached the Sox and dangled infielder Vaughn Grissom, among others, but were rebuffed. Grissom instead went to the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade. The Yankees, despite having known interest in Cease, aren’t likely to further deplete their farm after already acquiring Juan Soto (and Alex Verdugo) this offseason, per Rogers — at least not at the current asking price. Outfield prospect Spencer Jones, in particular, seems highly unlikely to be included in any potential deal, he adds. Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of The Athletic writes in his latest mailbag that talks between the Red Sox and White Sox never gained traction, thanks to Chicago’s steep ask.

Despite the lack of traction in talks thus far, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said in a Tuesday appearance on Foul Territory that he expects Cease to be moved prior to the season. The demand for starting pitching, as Rosenthal rightly observes, clearly outpaces the supply that’s available in free agency. Beyond that, the asking price on some other pitchers rumored to be available — Jesus Luzardo, in particular — would likely be even greater than the ask for Cease. Luzardo has three years of club control as compared to Cease’s two.

Each of the Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Giants, Dodgers and Padres, at the very least, could still use some degree of rotation upgrade. The Cardinals signed three free agents early in the offseason (Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson) but were reported to have interest in Cease even after making that trio of additions.

Getz, unsurprisingly, kept things close to the vest in his public comments yesterday. The newly minted general manager rattled off a series of familiar choruses, noting that Cease would only be moved for the right deal, that there was no urgency to make a swap given his remaining club control, and specifying that the majority of the league has shown at least some level of interest in the right-hander.

Cease is coming off a down season that saw him post a 4.58 ERA with a slightly diminished 27.3% strikeout rate. That’s down only by his lofty standards; he punched out 30.1% of his opponents a year prior while pitching to a sparkling 2.20 ERA that netted him a runner-up finish in American League Cy Young voting.

While last year’s ERA was unsightly, Cease still missed bats at a high level, sat just under 96 mph in terms of average fastball velocity, and notched a well above-average 13.6% swinging-strike rate. He’s also made a full slate of starts in each of the past four seasons, leading the Majors with 109 games started since 2020. Add in that Cease is projected for an eminently affordable $8.8MM salary in arbitration this winter (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and is controllable through the 2025 season, and his appeal becomes even more apparent.

Any team to acquire Cease would surely view him as a prime rebound candidate whom they can control for two seasons before recouping some prospect value in the form of a qualifying offer. An extension with Cease always remains a possibility, albeit perhaps a faint one. Clients of the Boras Corporation tend to test the open market, though there are plenty of examples of Boras clients who have instead signed extensions (e.g. Xander Bogaerts, Jose Altuve, Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gonzalez — among others).

Braves Sign Luis Guillorme To Major League Deal

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The Braves announced they’ve signed free agent infielder Luis Guillorme to a one-year, $1.1MM contract. Atlanta also avoided arbitration with right-hander Huascar Ynoa, signing him to an $825K deal. Guillorme, a client of MVP Sports Group, has just under five years of MLB service, so Atlanta could control him via arbitration for the 2025 season as well.

Guillorme sticks in the NL East after spending his entire career with the Mets. He played a decade in the New York organization as a former 10th-round draftee. The glove-first infielder debuted in 2018 and got to the big leagues in each of the past six years. While he saw only sporadic action in each of his first three campaigns, Guillorme got a bit more work over the last trio of seasons.

The left-handed hitter combined for a roughly league average .270/.359/.331 slash in 491 plate appearances between 2021-22. Paired with his solid glove throughout the infield, he was a valuable piece off the bench. Guillorme’s offense dropped last year, as he hit .224/.288/.327 across 54 games. After striking out in roughly 14% of his trips over the previous two seasons, Guillorme fanned at a 23.3% clip a year ago.

That drop in offense led the Mets to move on in November. New York non-tendered the 29-year-old in lieu of a $1.7MM projected salary for his penultimate season of arbitration. Guillorme won’t quite reach that level on his deal with Atlanta, but he’ll get another crack in the big leagues.

Guillorme is out of options. Atlanta will have to carry him on the MLB roster or make him available to other teams via trade or waivers. That the Braves guaranteed him $1.1MM indicates they’re likely to carry him on the Opening Day roster. Guillorme can back up the starting infield of Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley. There weren’t many shortstop reps available in Queens thanks to Francisco Lindor, but Guillorme has the ability to handle any infield spot.

Atlanta acquired David Fletcher from the Angels last month. At the time, he seemed the option to replace Nicky Lopez as the depth infielder. The Braves outrighted Fletcher from the 40-man roster not long after the trade, at least raising the possibility of him starting next season at Triple-A Gwinnett.

Ynoa, meanwhile, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1MM salary in his first year of arbitration. He lost all of last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery but could battle for the fifth starter job in camp.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees Interested In Dylan Cease

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The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.

Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.

With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.

For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.

Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.

Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.

His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.

The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.

Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.

But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”

With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.

The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.

As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.

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